New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.1 #48
Expected Predictive Rating +12.8 #41
Pace 74.1 #56
Improvement +6.1 #3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #85 B C B C+ B+
Defense #26 A- B- A- B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.18 #149 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #336 0.93 #18 -2.2 #288
Three Pointers 47% #59 1.07 #121 +4.5 #39
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #66 +4.1 #66
Freethrows 17.2 #196 77% #58 13.2 #145
Second Chance 30.8% #181 1.06 #166 0.33 #153
Turnovers 15.0% #90
Total Offense +4.2 #85

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #358 1.10 #104 +7.3 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #154 0.77 #194 -0.4 #209
Three Pointers 51% #11 0.86 #29 -1.4 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #35 +5.5 #35
Freethrows 14.9 #68 69% #45 10.3 #322
Second Chance 27.7% #80 1.01 #138 0.28 #82
Turnovers 19.6% #44
Total Defense +6.9 #26

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #38 -1.8% #49
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #98 -9.0% #41
Possession Length 16.2 #78 17.9 #274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #111 0.16 #120
Improvement +2.3 #56 +3.8 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 2.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 56.8% 36.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 32.4% 44.7% 24.2%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 21.4% 32.7% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.9% 14.2% 11.9%
First Round38.4% 49.7% 30.3%
Second Round15.1% 20.5% 11.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 4.6% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 26 - 39 - 7
Quad 37 - 216 - 8
Quad 48 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 321 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 98% +16  1 - 0 +9 -7 F B+ D- +15 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 154 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 90% +12  2 - 0 +15 +0 B- F C+ +14 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 287 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 97% +5  3 - 0 +4 +9 B- C A+ -4 D- B- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 139 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 75% -2  3 - 1 -4 +2 C C F -6 A- F F
 Thu, Nov 20 16 Nebraska L 72 - 84 27% -11  3 - 2 +5 -2 B C- C +9 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 66 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 60% +2  4 - 2 +10 +9 B+ C+ C+ +2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 306 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 97% -6  5 - 2 -5 +10 A+ F B -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 55 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 66% +11  6 - 2 +34 +25 A+ A+ A+ +8 A+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 10 51 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 41% -1  7 - 2 +17 +14 A+ F D- +2 A+ C- B
 Sun, Dec 14 201 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 93% +5  8 - 2 +11 -1 F C D- +12 A+ A C+
 Sat, Dec 20 227 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 94% +10  9 - 2 1 - 0 +16 +13 A+ D+ A+ +4 B+ A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 78 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 53% +0  9 - 3 1 - 1 +1 -13 F D A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 96 Wyoming W 78 - 58 79% +6  10 - 3 2 - 1 +22 +16 B A+ B+ +9 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 97 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 61% +7  11 - 3 3 - 1 +18 +13 A+ A+ C +6 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 342 @Air Force W 91 - 49 95% +21  12 - 3 4 - 1 +34 +19 A- D A- +16 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 90 Grand Canyon W 87 - 64 77% +9  13 - 3 5 - 1 +26 +15 A+ D+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 52 @San Diego St. L 73 - 75 42%
 Wed, Jan 21 152 Fresno St. W 81 - 67 90%
 Sat, Jan 24 85 Nevada W 77 - 70 75%
 Tue, Jan 27 134 @UNLV W 82 - 75 73%
 Sat, Jan 31 227 @San Jose St. W 80 - 68 86%
 Wed, Feb 4 28 Utah St. L 77 - 78 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 78 Boise St. W 76 - 69 74%
 Wed, Feb 11 90 @Grand Canyon W 74 - 72 57%
 Tue, Feb 17 342 Air Force W 81 - 56 99%
 Sat, Feb 21 152 @Fresno St. W 78 - 70 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 85 @Nevada W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 52 San Diego St. W 76 - 72 63%
 Wed, Mar 4 97 Colorado St. W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 @Utah St. L 74 - 81 26%
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 6 +11 +4 B C B +7 A- B- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.0 7.1 3.4 0.7 21.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.9 12.7 9.0 2.4 0.1 33.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 7.2 9.7 4.5 0.6 0.0 24.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.4 9.0 14.6 19.3 20.2 16.6 9.5 3.5 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 97.0% 3.4    2.9 0.4
17-3 75.0% 7.1    4.9 2.2 0.1
16-4 42.0% 7.0    2.9 3.5 0.6 0.0
15-5 14.5% 2.9    0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1
14-6 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 12.0 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 97.8% 41.3% 56.5% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.3%
18-2 3.5% 92.5% 33.4% 59.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 88.7%
17-3 9.5% 82.4% 29.2% 53.2% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.0 1.7 75.1%
16-4 16.6% 67.6% 25.3% 42.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.5 3.4 0.0 5.4 56.7%
15-5 20.2% 51.0% 20.4% 30.6% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.7 5.4 0.0 9.9 38.4%
14-6 19.3% 36.0% 16.7% 19.3% 10.6 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 0.1 12.4 23.2%
13-7 14.6% 22.5% 12.5% 9.9% 10.8 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.1 11.3 11.4%
12-8 9.0% 13.2% 9.2% 4.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 7.8 4.4%
11-9 4.4% 9.1% 7.6% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.0 1.6%
10-10 1.6% 6.2% 6.2% 11.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.2% 18.8% 26.3% 9.9 54.8 32.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.4 1.8 3.5 12.3 29.8 40.4 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 93.3% 6.4 6.7 20.0 26.7 16.7 16.7 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 97.2% 6.9 16.7 19.4 27.8 19.4 13.9