Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.5 288
Results Rating -8.7 303
Consistency 0.16 224
Pace 72.9 66
Improvement -4.4 332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 219 C C- C- D B-
Defense D 324 F+ C C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 69 C 59% 145 +2.9 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 194 C- 37% 200 -1.0 238
Three Pointers 39% 221 C- 33% 230 -1.7 241
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 103 C -0.4 186
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 163
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 289 B- 1.09 96 C- 0.29 227
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 236
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 233
Turnovers C- 17.6% 236
Freethrows D+ 0.27 278 D 69% 302 D 0.19 305
Total Offense C- -1.9 219

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 158 C- 12.1% 251
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 39 B 3.0% 48
Three Pointers B 91% 42 C- 1.2% 259
Total B- 59% 102 C- 6.2% 248

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 D- 64% 330 +6.6 354
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 232 F 47% 361 +1.0 270
Three Pointers 36% 309 D+ 36% 276 -1.3 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 301 F+ +5.4 350
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 349
Second Chance C- 31.3% 230 C+ 0.99 125 C 0.31 183
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 180
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 145
Turnovers C 17.1% 162
Freethrows D 0.35 308 C- 73% 231 D 0.25 308
Total Defense D -5.6 324

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 210 D+ 8.0% 300
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 142 D+ 3.3% 270
Three Pointers C- 86% 252 B+ 2.0% 30
Total C 55% 159 C- 4.9% 228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 119 16.7 71
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 92 0.17 193
Consistency 0.13 254 0.15 334
Improvement +0.5 167 -4.8 354

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 306 289 270
Results Rating Rank 326 301 272
Conference Record 2 - 16 3 - 15 4 - 14
Conference Finish 13 13 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Hampton (Away) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 44 - 97 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 258 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 53% +2  65% 0 - 1 D -9 F -13 F D+ F B +4 B C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 250 @Colgate W 68 - 65 29% -1  33% 1 - 1 C +1 D- -6 D F A A- +8 B- B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 149 @Harvard W 77 - 60 15% +9  73% 2 - 1 A +21 B+ +9 C+ C+ A A+ +13 A C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 236 Vermont L 74 - 85 49% -0  60% 2 - 2 F -18 D -5 D A F F -13 F B B
 Thu, Nov 20 252 @Princeton L 57 - 70 30% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -17 F D+ F C+ +2 A F A
 Sat, Nov 22 119 Duquesne W 93 - 86 16% +3  90% 3 - 3 B +10 C+ +4 A+ D- F B+ +5 D- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 71 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 5% -7  2% 3 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 A+ F F C +0 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 327 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 50% -13  0% 3 - 5 F -25 F -17 F D F F+ -8 F B- D+
 Sun, Dec 7 302 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 64% +14  95% 4 - 5 B- +6 D- -8 C- D+ D A+ +14 A+ A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 74 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 5% -7  11% 4 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 A B+ C F -10 F C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 131 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 13% -6  5% 4 - 7 C- -3 A +12 A+ F+ C+ F -16 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 225 @Elon L 91 - 103 25% -5  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 D- -13 A- +10 A+ D D F -22 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 275 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 35% +4  90% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 A +13 B+ C+ B D+ -4 C- D D
 Sat, Jan 3 196 @Campbell L 82 - 97 21% -8  3% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 C+ +3 B- D+ B F -17 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 107 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 21% -1  36% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -8 C +0 B C- A D- -8 C+ D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 174 Towson L 78 - 87 37% -6  30% 5 - 11 1 - 4 D- -13 B- +5 B+ D A- F -18 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 225 Elon W 85 - 78 46% +4  75% 6 - 11 2 - 4 C +0 D+ -3 D+ A+ C+ B- +3 D- B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 187 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 20% -1  49% 6 - 12 2 - 5 D- -12 D- -7 C F F D+ -5 D D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 219 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 45% -9  0% 6 - 13 2 - 6 F -21 C +0 D- A+ A F -21 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 215 @Drexel L 78 - 83 24% -6  7% 6 - 14 2 - 7 D+ -5 B +6 B- B- A- F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 147 College of Charleston L 84 - 89 31% +2  66% 6 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -7 A- +10 A C A+ F -17 F+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 104 @Hofstra L 63 - 80 9% -10  0% 6 - 16 2 - 9 D -10 D -6 A- F F+ D+ -5 D+ D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @Stony Brook L 55 - 69 25% -10  18% 6 - 17 2 - 10 D- -14 F -18 F B D B- +3 D A- B-
 Thu, Feb 12 139 William & Mary L 67 - 94 29% -11  0% 6 - 18 2 - 11 F -29 F+ -9 F B+ B- F -19 F C- F
 Thu, Feb 19 215 Drexel L 61 - 70 44% -3  12% 6 - 19 2 - 12 F+ -15 F -12 F+ D C- D+ -4 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 104 Hofstra L 68 - 82 20% -10  3% 6 - 20 2 - 13 D- -13 C- -1 D- B+ A F -13 F A- F
 Thu, Feb 26 139 @William & Mary L 77 - 84 14% -3  30% 6 - 21 2 - 14 C- -3 D- -6 B- C+ F B +4 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 267 @Hampton L 72 - 76 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 187 Monmouth L 75 - 78 40%
Totals 7 - 22 3 - 15 -8 C- -2 D C B- D -6 C- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- C- C 43% 37% 39% B- C D+ B- C- C- D+ D D D D- F D+ F+ 45% 19% 36% D F+ C- C+ C C D C- D
1.06 59% 37% 33% 0 +1 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 18% .27 69% .19 1.17 64% 47% 36% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.0 .31 17% .35 73% .20
Nov
3		 Boston University F D D F F 54% 15% 31% A- F C- D- D+ F A+ D A+ B F+ F A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% D+ B D- B+ C- B+ F+ C+ D
1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29 1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24
Nov
7		 Colgate D- B+ F F F+ 51% 12% 37% A- D D+ F F A A+ C A A- C+ F A+ B 41% 24% 35% D+ B- D A+ B+ C+ C- F D
1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30 0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23
Nov
11		 Harvard B+ C F A+ C+ 41% 20% 39% C- C+ C B- C+ A A+ F B+ A+ C- A+ B A 36% 19% 45% C+ A C- B+ C+ A+ F D+ F
1.16 57% 10% 45% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 12% .39 61% .24 0.90 60% 13% 32% -6 0 0.90 28% 0.8 .22 27% .49 83% .41
Nov
15		 Vermont D D+ F A+ D- 46% 27% 27% C+ D B- A+ A F B+ B- A- F C+ B F F 55% 6% 39% F F C+ A- B B A- F B-
1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29 1.22 57% 33% 60% +14 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18
Nov
20		 Princeton F D F F F 52% 14% 34% B+ F B F D+ F B- F C- C+ A+ A D+ A 35% 27% 38% B+ A F F F A F C- F
0.85 54% 29% 12% -15 +2 0.76 33% 0.8 .26 19% .33 61% .20 1.04 38% 30% 36% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.5 .50 22% .71 76% .54
Nov
22		 Duquesne C+ A+ A+ F A+ 53% 16% 31% A A+ C F D- F A+ A A+ B+ C F F D 71% 7% 22% F D- A+ C+ A+ A D+ B C-
1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38 1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26
Nov
28		 Wake Forest C- D+ D A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% B+ A+ F+ F F F C- C C- C F F C- F 45% 14% 41% D- F F A- D A+ D C+ D+
1.00 55% 33% 56% +10 +2 1.26 21% 0.7 .14 30% .29 73% .21 1.17 82% 57% 35% +14 +1 1.33 43% 1.0 .43 23% .36 75% .27
Dec
3		 Holy Cross F D F F+ F 43% 8% 49% A- F D+ F+ D F F F F F+ D- F D+ F 38% 34% 28% C+ F C- A+ B- D+ B F C+
0.89 55% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.88 27% 1.0 .27 20% .15 38% .06 1.14 63% 65% 36% +12 -2 1.22 22% 0.7 .15 15% .23 85% .19
Dec
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- C C C- C- 44% 10% 46% B- C- F A+ D+ D D+ B+ C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% F A+ B+ A+ A F+ D+ A+ B
1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21 0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17
Dec
20		 Syracuse A D+ A+ C A- 51% 11% 38% A A A+ F B+ C B+ F C+ F A F F F 53% 29% 18% B- F F A+ C- C F D- F
1.19 50% 83% 33% 0 +2 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 19% .35 65% .23 1.31 50% 91% 43% +13 0 1.29 53% 0.7 .35 16% .82 71% .58
Dec
22		 Rhode Island A C F A+ A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ C+ F F+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F C- F D+ F 36% 24% 40% A- F F D+ F D B+ B A-
1.19 55% 0% 50% +9 +3 1.27 32% 0.7 .21 20% .48 76% .37 1.31 61% 83% 35% +13 -1 1.26 47% 1.0 .47 17% .30 69% .20
Dec
29		 Elon A- C F+ A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% B- A+ D- C D D C F D+ F F F F F 49% 6% 45% D F F F F B+ F D- F
1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19 1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33
Dec
31		 N.C. A&T A C A+ A+ A- 48% 24% 28% C B+ C B- C+ B A+ F+ A D+ D- F A+ C- 33% 28% 40% C+ C- F B- D D F B- F
1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29 1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42
Jan
3		 Campbell C+ C+ B+ A- B 39% 25% 36% D+ B- F A+ D+ B F A+ D- F F F B- F 55% 14% 31% D F C A+ B+ F F D- F
1.14 64% 43% 40% +7 -1 1.14 14% 2.3 .32 15% .20 92% .18 1.34 79% 57% 31% +13 +2 1.31 33% 0.8 .26 12% .49 77% .38
Jan
8		 UNC Wilmington C B- F C- C+ 51% 15% 35% A+ B D B- C- A A+ F B- D- A A+ F+ B 50% 13% 38% F C+ D+ C D+ B+ F F F
1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21 1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50
Jan
10		 Towson B- B B C+ B 39% 17% 44% B- B+ D- C+ D A- A- A+ A+ F F F F F 52% 30% 18% F+ F F F F A+ D- D F+
1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30 1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25
Jan
15		 Elon D+ C B+ D D 39% 19% 42% C+ D+ D A+ A+ C+ F C F B- C- A+ F F+ 44% 8% 48% C- D- A C B+ A+ C- A+ B-
1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12 1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19
Jan
19		 Monmouth D- A+ A+ F C 47% 15% 38% B- C B- F F F D+ C- D+ D+ B- F+ D D+ 36% 19% 46% D D D+ D- D- F A+ A+ A+
0.95 72% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19 1.13 52% 45% 37% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11
Jan
22		 Stony Brook C A+ F F D- 39% 18% 44% C+ D- D- A+ A+ A C+ F F F D- C F F 33% 10% 57% D+ F F B+ D+ B+ F D+ F
1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13 1.33 63% 40% 57% +21 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27
Jan
24		 Drexel B F A+ A- B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D A+ B- A- C- F D F F F C F 35% 31% 35% A F B- A+ A+ F F C- F
1.12 43% 54% 38% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.4 .38 12% .29 67% .20 1.20 71% 60% 35% +12 -2 1.22 26% 0.4 .12 10% .45 68% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 College of Charleston A- A C A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% B- A B- D C A+ F F F F D F A+ D 58% 13% 28% F F+ B- D- C- F D- D+ F+
1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03 1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31
Feb
5		 Hofstra D C- A+ B A 27% 27% 46% D+ A- F C- F F+ D F F+ D+ F D- B D 32% 26% 42% C+ D+ F+ B- D+ C- B- D C+
0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17 1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21
Feb
7		 Stony Brook F F F F F 30% 26% 44% D- F D- A+ B D B- F C- B- F D+ A D 38% 15% 47% D+ D A+ F A- B- F C- F
0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20 1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26
Feb
12		 William & Mary F+ B+ D F F 34% 17% 49% C- F D- A+ B+ B- F A F F D- A+ F F 53% 13% 34% D+ F F A+ C- F B- A+ A-
0.96 67% 33% 19% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.7 .41 17% .16 78% .12 1.35 68% 14% 61% +16 +2 1.38 33% 0.9 .30 11% .31 63% .19
Feb
19		 Drexel F F A+ F+ F+ 36% 28% 36% D+ F+ F A+ D C- D- B- D D+ F A+ D- F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ B+ F B+ F
0.91 33% 50% 28% -9 -1 0.82 19% 1.4 .27 16% .25 79% .20 1.04 85% 0% 39% +12 +2 1.31 4% 0.0 .00 22% .46 63% .29
Feb
21		 Hofstra C- C C- F D- 38% 26% 36% C D- C A+ B+ A F D- F F C F F F 29% 22% 49% C F A+ F A- F F A D
1.06 55% 36% 21% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 9% .21 67% .14 1.28 57% 55% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .38 68% .26
Feb
26		 William & Mary D- B+ D B- B- 33% 16% 51% C- B- F A+ C+ F F D F B D A+ A+ A 61% 7% 31% F B+ A+ A- A+ F F F+ F
0.96 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.09 19% 1.8 .34 28% .16 67% .10 1.05 67% 25% 12% -6 +3 0.96 6% 1.0 .06 10% .54 82% .45



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 7.4 7.4 12th
13th 40.5 45.1 7.0 92.6 13th
Total 40.5 45.1 14.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.4
3-15 45.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 45.0
2-16 40.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 40.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 23.0%