Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #236
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #250
Pace 71.7 #104
Improvement -2.2 #291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #149 C+ D+ C- C B+
Defense #316 D- C B- F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.16 #176 +4.3 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.67 #292 -2.3 #294
Three Pointers 38% #246 1.10 #68 +0.1 #176
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #123 +2.1 #123
Freethrows 17.7 #166 72% #215 12.7 #169
Second Chance 27.6% #265 1.01 #239 0.28 #271
Turnovers 17.3% #229
Total Offense +0.4 #149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #15 1.21 #250 -5.9 #347
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.97 #363 -2.1 #329
Three Pointers 33% #348 1.06 #251 +3.1 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #322 -4.9 #323
Freethrows 21.1 #333 76% #329 16.1 #20
Second Chance 35.1% #322 0.95 #66 0.33 #214
Turnovers 18.0% #89
Total Defense -4.5 #316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #53 1.3% #286
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.9% #150 8.2% #318
Possession Length 16.9 #137 16.6 #73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #90 0.18 #194
Improvement +6.3 #2 -8.5 #365

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 4.0% 6.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 18.8% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 6.6% 17.8%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round1.3% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 95 - 13
Quad 46 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 66% +2  0 - 1 -9 -11 F D F +2 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 7 215 @Colgate W 68 - 65 34% -1  1 - 1 +3 -3 D- F A+ +6 A- B C
 Tue, Nov 11 162 @Harvard W 77 - 60 26% +9  2 - 1 +20 +10 C C+ A+ +11 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 195 Vermont L 74 - 85 54% -0  2 - 2 -16 -3 F A+ F -13 F A- A
 Thu, Nov 20 221 @Princeton L 57 - 70 35% -10  2 - 3 -13 -11 F D F -3 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 132 Duquesne W 93 - 86 29% +3  3 - 3 +9 +3 A+ F F +4 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 57 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 7% -7  3 - 4 -1 +3 A+ F F -3 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 310 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 57% -13  3 - 5 -23 -13 F C- F -11 F B+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 260 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 67% +14  4 - 5 +8 -2 C C- D +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 61 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 7% -7  4 - 6 +4 +17 A+ B C+ -13 F C C+
 Mon, Dec 22 123 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 18% -6  4 - 7 -3 +15 A+ F B -19 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 169 @Elon L 91 - 103 27% -5  4 - 8 0 - 1 -10 +13 A+ D F -22 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 302 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 55% +4  5 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +16 A- B B -9 D D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 191 @Campbell L 82 - 97 31% -8  5 - 9 1 - 2 -14 +6 B D B -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 118 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 36% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -9 +2 B+ D A -11 C C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 166 Towson L 78 - 87 48% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -13 +6 B+ F A+ -19 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 169 Elon L 80 - 81 49%
 Sat, Jan 17 238 @Drexel L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Jan 17 185 @Monmouth L 72 - 78 30%
 Thu, Jan 22 274 Stony Brook W 75 - 70 69%
 Sat, Jan 31 155 College of Charleston L 78 - 79 45%
 Thu, Feb 5 110 @Hofstra L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 274 @Stony Brook L 72 - 73 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 138 William & Mary L 82 - 84 42%
 Thu, Feb 19 238 Drexel W 73 - 70 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 110 Hofstra L 72 - 77 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 138 @William & Mary L 79 - 87 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 242 @Hampton L 72 - 74 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 185 Monmouth W 75 - 74 51%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 11 -4 +0 C+ D+ C- -4 D- C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.9 2.3 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 5.1 0.7 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 3.2 7.5 2.5 0.1 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 9.2 4.7 0.3 17.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.2 8.8 6.4 0.8 0.0 19.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.1 5.3 1.0 0.0 17.7 12th
13th 0.3 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.7 13th
Total 0.3 1.8 6.0 12.0 17.3 20.1 17.4 13.2 7.4 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 11.6% 11.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.1% 10.6% 10.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-8 3.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
9-9 7.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.1
8-10 13.2% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 12.8
7-11 17.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 17.2
6-12 20.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 20.0
5-13 17.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.2
4-14 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.0
3-15 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%