South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #190
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #145
Pace 62.5 #343
Improvement +0.9 #135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #234 D+ D+ B+ C- B
Defense #148 C D- C A+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #6 1.09 #268 +4.1 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.80 #120 +0.1 #171
Three Pointers 32% #341 0.83 #348 -7.5 #352
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #273 -3.3 #272
Freethrows 17.8 #160 67% #318 12.0 #219
Second Chance 25.0% #324 1.12 #91 0.28 #264
Turnovers 14.2% #49
Total Offense -2.3 #234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #364 1.29 #322 +8.5 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #365 0.86 #318 +4.3 #1
Three Pointers 71% #1 0.93 #76 -11.9 #365
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #154 +0.9 #154
Freethrows 9.9 #3 80% #361 7.9 #362
Second Chance 34.5% #311 1.11 #272 0.38 #312
Turnovers 16.5% #189
Total Defense +0.5 #148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #73 0.6% #224
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #303 -2.3% #140
Possession Length 17.6 #207 18.6 #340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #257 0.14 #73
Improvement -1.6 #282 +2.5 #50

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 11.6% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.3
.500 or above 96.5% 98.9% 94.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 93.9% 77.8%
Conference Champion 6.9% 12.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.6% 11.6% 5.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 414 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 @Toledo W 76 - 74 34% +9  1 - 0 +4 +8 A- B- C+ -4 F B- B+
 Thu, Nov 6 347 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 89% -3  2 - 0 -9 -6 D+ D+ F -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 325 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 78% +3  3 - 0 -8 -3 F B- A- -5 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 95% +5  4 - 0 -10 -6 F F B -4 A F D
 Wed, Nov 19 203 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 41% -6  5 - 0 +7 +3 C C A+ +4 C B- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 115 @UAB L 72 - 80 21% -5  5 - 1 -1 +9 B- D A+ -11 F C- B
 Sun, Nov 30 332 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 72% +14  6 - 1 +16 +7 B- C C +9 A- C F
 Tue, Dec 2 139 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 39% -1  7 - 1 +3 +9 D+ C- A+ -6 C C- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 119 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 24% -5  7 - 2 -20 -4 C+ F A+ -17 B- F F
 Sun, Dec 14 137 North Texas L 57 - 58 49% -4  7 - 3 -3 -6 F A- A+ +4 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 79% -7  8 - 3 1 - 0 -6 -2 D+ C F -5 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 261 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 53% +6  8 - 4 1 - 1 -5 -4 F D B -1 A- F C
 Wed, Dec 31 315 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 67% +2  9 - 4 2 - 1 -1 +5 D C+ D- -5 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 125 @Troy L 49 - 59 26% -5  9 - 5 2 - 2 -5 -12 F D C +5 A+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 230 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 68% +9  10 - 5 3 - 2 +9 +6 A+ F C +3 A- C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 133 Arkansas St. L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Jan 17 315 Louisiana W 68 - 58 84%
 Thu, Jan 22 213 @James Madison L 67 - 69 43%
 Sat, Jan 24 171 @Marshall L 69 - 73 36%
 Thu, Jan 29 268 Coastal Carolina W 71 - 64 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 290 Georgia St. W 73 - 64 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 223 @Appalachian St. L 62 - 63 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 199 Buffalo W 73 - 69 62%
 Thu, Feb 12 210 @Southern Miss L 67 - 69 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 133 @Arkansas St. L 71 - 77 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 261 Texas St. W 71 - 64 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 125 Troy L 68 - 69 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 354 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 65 91%
 Fri, Feb 27 210 Southern Miss W 70 - 66 65%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 -2 -2 D+ D+ B+ +1 C D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.6 1.3 0.2 6.9 1st
2nd 0.5 4.0 5.5 1.7 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.8 7.4 2.2 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 8.4 3.8 0.3 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.7 7.5 5.6 0.5 14.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 6.9 1.2 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.9 2.1 0.1 9.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.2 3.5 0.2 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.6 4.6 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.9 8.6 14.4 19.2 19.6 16.3 10.3 4.4 1.4 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 93.4% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 58.4% 2.6    1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 22.5% 2.3    0.5 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 2.8 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 35.3% 35.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.4% 37.6% 37.6% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-4 4.4% 29.4% 29.4% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 3.1
13-5 10.3% 21.8% 21.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 8.1
12-6 16.3% 13.6% 13.6% 14.3 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.0 14.1
11-7 19.6% 6.5% 6.5% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 18.3
10-8 19.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 18.6
9-9 14.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.1
8-10 8.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.1 0.0 8.5
7-11 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 14.1 91.4 0.0%