South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.7 185
Results Rating +0.4 151
Consistency 0.14 118
Pace 63.0 327
Improvement +3.3 60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 217 D+ D+ A- C- B-
Defense C 165 C+ D+ C+ B+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 C- 56% 225 +2.9 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 175 C- 37% 213 -0.9 226
Three Pointers 36% 284 D 31% 312 -4.4 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 93 D+ -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 251
Second Chance F+ 22.9% 346 A- 1.19 22 D+ 0.27 268
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 52
Other Turnovers A- 5.2% 10
Turnovers A- 13.2% 15
Freethrows C+ 0.31 163 F+ 66% 354 C- 0.20 239
Total Offense C- -1.9 217

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 30% 358 D 13.8% 328
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 144 C+ 4.4% 142
Three Pointers B+ 91% 33 D 1.5% 322
Total F+ 45% 349 F+ 7.6% 343

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% 364 D+ 62% 290 -8.8 5
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 365 B- 36% 107 -4.9 1
Three Pointers 70% 1 B- 32% 96 +13.0 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 250 C+ -1.1 138
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.01 149
Second Chance C- 31.1% 218 D+ 1.10 282 D+ 0.34 262
Turnovers from Steals B 11.2% 58
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 335
Turnovers C+ 17.2% 148
Freethrows A- 0.23 13 D+ 74% 301 B+ 0.17 18
Total Defense C +0.1 165

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 64% 362 C+ 12.5% 104
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 64% 364 C- 3.7% 251
Three Pointers F+ 92% 352 D+ 0.4% 295
Total F 80% 365 D- 3.3% 337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 211 18.4 322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 239 0.16 123
Consistency 0.11 55 0.11 88
Improvement +1.7 100 +1.6 100

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 206 194 171
Results Rating Rank 174 163 139
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 6% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 38 - 58 - 7
Quad 412 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 @Toledo W 76 - 74 33% +9  99% 1 - 0 C+ +5 B +6 B+ B- C+ C -1 F+ C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 6 345 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 90% -3  22% 2 - 0 D -10 F+ -9 D+ C- D- C -0 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 266 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 66% +3  90% 3 - 0 C- -4 D -4 F B+ A- C+ +1 A- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 93% +5  81% 4 - 0 D -8 D -6 F+ F+ B+ C- -2 A- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 194 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 39% -6  13% 5 - 0 B- +7 C +1 C- C- A+ B+ +6 C+ C+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 112 @UAB L 72 - 80 22% -5  8% 5 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 C+ D A+ F -10 F D B
 Sun, Nov 30 336 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 75% +14  97% 6 - 1 A- +15 C +1 C- C C A+ +14 A B- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 176 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 48% -1  35% 7 - 1 C +1 B- +4 D C A C- -3 C- C- A
 Fri, Dec 5 135 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 28% -5  42% 7 - 2 F -22 D- -7 C+ F B+ F -16 C+ F F
 Sun, Dec 14 141 North Texas L 57 - 58 50% -4  14% 7 - 3 C- -3 F -10 F B+ A A- +7 A+ F+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 82% -7  24% 8 - 3 1 - 0 D+ -8 D -6 D+ C F+ C- -2 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 234 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 47% +6  90% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ D+ B- C+ +2 A F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 301 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 63% +2  74% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C -0 C+ +3 D B- D+ C- -2 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 151 @Troy L 49 - 59 31% -5  16% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D+ -7 F -16 F D+ C- A- +7 A- B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 261 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 74% +9  95% 10 - 5 3 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 A+ F C- B +4 B+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 145 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 51% +0  38% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 D+ D A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 301 Louisiana L 56 - 59 82% -1  34% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D- -14 F -11 F+ B- A- D+ -4 D+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 202 @James Madison W 90 - 83 41% +2  49% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B- +8 B +7 D- A+ A+ C -0 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 228 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 69% +0  50% 13 - 6 6 - 3 C- -2 F -14 F+ F+ A+ A+ +13 A A B
 Sat, Jan 31 296 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 81% +4  79% 14 - 6 7 - 3 D -9 C+ +2 B D A+ F -10 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 170 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 65 36% -3  12% 14 - 7 7 - 4 D+ -6 D -4 C- F A+ D+ -3 B- D F
 Sat, Feb 7 206 Buffalo W 81 - 69 65% +18  96% 15 - 7 B- +6 C +0 B- D+ B+ B+ +6 B A- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 226 @Southern Miss W 84 - 78 46% +8  97% 16 - 7 8 - 4 B- +5 B- +5 A+ F A- C -0 D- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 145 @Arkansas St. W 92 - 88 OT 29% -5  21% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B- +8 A- +10 D- A A+ C- -3 C- D A-
 Mon, Feb 16 186 @Marshall L 80 - 84 39% -8  3% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A- B- B- F -11 D F F
 Thu, Feb 19 234 Texas St. L 82 - 90 OT 70% -3  27% 17 - 9 9 - 6 F+ -15 C +2 A F A F -16 F B- F+
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Troy W 65 - 54 53% +4  91% 18 - 9 10 - 6 B +8 C +1 C D A A +10 A+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 25 353 Louisiana Monroe W 89 - 54 92% +21  97% 19 - 9 11 - 6 A- +17 B +7 A+ D C- A+ +12 A+ A F
 Fri, Feb 27 226 Southern Miss L 55 - 68 68% -6  25% 19 - 10 11 - 7 F -20 F -17 F C- A+ D+ -4 F B- B
Totals 19 - 10 11 - 7 -2 C- -2 A- D+ B- C +0 D F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- D D+ 45% 38% 36% B- D+ F+ A- D+ A- C+ F+ C- C D+ B- B- C+ 22% 8% 70% D+ C+ C- D+ D+ C+ A- D+ B+
1.06 56% 37% 31% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.2 .27 13% .31 66% .20 1.08 62% 36% 32% -1 0 1.01 31% 1.1 .34 17% .23 74% .23
Nov
3		 Toledo B B+ A+ C+ B 55% 12% 33% B+ B+ C+ B- B- C+ C F F C F+ A+ F F 24% 14% 61% D+ F+ A+ F C+ B- A+ D+ A
1.18 68% 50% 35% +7 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09 1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
6		 Alcorn St. F+ B- F B- D+ 59% 17% 24% C+ D+ F A+ C- D- A+ F B C F C+ D F 25% 6% 69% F F B- A+ A+ A+ B F C
1.06 67% 13% 36% +1 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28 0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17
Nov
13		 Central Michigan D F+ D F F 57% 7% 37% A F D+ A+ B+ A- A D- B C+ A+ A+ B A 15% 8% 77% D A- F B+ F+ C A A+ A
1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28 1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12
Nov
15		 Coppin St. D D F C+ F 43% 15% 42% C+ F+ C F F+ B+ F D+ F C- D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 2% 60% F A- B- F F D- C+ F D+
1.08 57% 25% 36% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.8 .28 14% .26 73% .19 0.93 58% 0% 17% -16 +2 0.74 26% 1.9 .49 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
19		 Jacksonville St. C D A+ F C- 57% 19% 23% B C- F A+ C- A+ A- F C B+ A C+ C C+ 33% 5% 62% C C+ B- C C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25 0.98 44% 33% 35% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02
Nov
21		 UAB B+ B D- C C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ F+ B D A+ A+ F A+ F F F C+ F 30% 15% 55% C- F F B- D B F+ A D+
1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26 1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24
Nov
30		 Texas San Antonio C F A+ B+ C- 43% 23% 34% C- C- B F+ C C B A+ A A+ A A+ A A+ 11% 11% 77% B- A D+ A- B- D- A+ F A+
1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27 0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03
Dec
2		 New Mexico St. B- D- F C F+ 49% 22% 29% B D F A+ C A A+ A- A+ C- D F A+ C- 20% 19% 61% C- C- F A+ C- A B D C+
1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54 1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19
Dec
5		 East Tennessee St. D- F F A+ C 46% 8% 46% A- C+ F F F B+ C- F F+ F C A+ B- B 36% 7% 57% D- C+ F F F F A+ D+ A+
0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16 1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12
Dec
14		 North Texas F F D+ F F 67% 14% 19% A+ F D+ A+ B+ A B+ D+ B- A- C- F A+ A+ 20% 4% 76% C A+ B- F F+ A B- C+ B-
0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28 0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22
Dec
17		 Louisiana Monroe D A+ A- F D+ 38% 16% 46% C- D+ F A+ C F+ C+ A B C- F A+ F F 12% 15% 73% B+ F D F F A+ C- F D-
1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21 1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27
Dec
20		 Texas St. D D+ A+ F F 56% 13% 31% A- F+ F A D+ B- A- F B- C+ B- D+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% F A F D F C- F F F
0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26 1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37
Dec
31		 Louisiana C+ C+ D+ D- D 41% 16% 43% C D B C- B- D+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ D- B- B- 9% 20% 70% D+ C+ F+ F F D A D+ A-
1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38 1.04 25% 44% 32% -4 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10
Jan
3		 Troy F F F F F 43% 14% 43% B F C- D- D+ C- A+ D A+ A- A+ B B A- 20% 6% 73% B A- D+ A- B- D+ A+ A+ A+
0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29 1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08
Jan
10		 Georgia Southern C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 53% 27% 20% D A+ D F F C- B+ F C- B C+ A+ A A- 24% 2% 75% C- B+ B D+ C+ D+ D+ B+ C
1.20 63% 50% 60% +14 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27 0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24
Jan
15		 Arkansas St. C C+ A+ F D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ F A+ D A+ A- C- B+ C+ D- B- B+ C+ 25% 5% 69% D+ C+ C C- C- B+ A+ F+ A-
1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27 1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Louisiana F D F B F 48% 23% 30% C- F+ C- A- B- A- F F F D+ D+ A+ C+ C 14% 8% 78% F D+ A+ F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06 1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
22		 James Madison B F+ D F F 49% 11% 40% A- D- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C C+ A+ F+ F+ 14% 2% 84% C- D- A+ F D+ A F F+ F
1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33 1.10 57% 0% 39% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32
Jan
29		 Coastal Carolina F F A+ D- F 40% 26% 34% B F+ F A+ F+ A+ F F F A+ B B A+ A+ 16% 6% 78% F A D+ A+ A B A+ A+ A+
0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11 0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08
Jan
31		 Georgia St. C+ A A+ F B 51% 19% 30% B- B D+ D D A+ B F D F D A D+ D- 10% 17% 73% D+ D- F C+ F C C A+ B
1.15 71% 56% 21% +4 +1 1.13 30% 0.9 .27 8% .34 53% .18 1.12 60% 25% 34% -2 -1 0.96 40% 1.0 .40 17% .30 67% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Appalachian St. D C F A- C 33% 29% 38% D- C- F F F A+ D+ C- D+ D+ D+ F A B 18% 4% 78% C- B- B- F D F D+ D D+
0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17 1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23
Feb
7		 Buffalo C F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B- F A+ D+ B+ A+ F B+ B+ C- A C- C+ 9% 18% 74% A+ B B- A+ A- A- A+ A A+
1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25 0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07
Feb
12		 Southern Miss B- A+ B+ B+ A+ 32% 19% 49% D+ A+ F C- F A- A+ F A C C A+ F D+ 49% 11% 40% F D- B F F A+ F D F
1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32 1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41
Feb
14		 Arkansas St. A- F F A+ D+ 21% 29% 50% F D- C A+ A A+ B A- B+ C- A+ B- D- D+ 14% 12% 75% A- C- F B- D A- F A F
1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28 1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34
Feb
16		 Marshall B+ A+ F C- A 47% 29% 24% C A- B+ C- B- B- F D F F F A C- D 14% 12% 74% D+ D C+ F F F A A- A
1.24 83% 27% 33% +8 -1 1.18 41% 0.9 .38 15% .24 69% .16 1.30 100% 29% 36% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.6 .47 11% .16 67% .10
Feb
19		 Texas St. C A- B+ A+ A 48% 13% 39% B A F F F A D+ D D F F F+ F F 20% 34% 46% A+ F C B B- F+ F B F
1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21 1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39
Feb
21		 Troy C C+ F D+ D+ 40% 6% 53% A C D C- D A D+ C- D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 2% 80% B- A+ D+ A- B- D+ F D- F
1.11 58% 33% 32% -2 +2 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 12% .25 69% .17 0.92 38% 0% 24% -16 +1 0.72 37% 0.8 .29 15% .46 78% .36
Feb
25		 Louisiana Monroe B A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 11% 64% C- A+ F A+ D C- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 22% 13% 65% C A+ A+ C A F B+ D+ B-
1.32 83% 60% 43% +18 0 1.38 20% 1.8 .36 16% .37 71% .27 0.80 33% 29% 23% -18 0 0.67 14% 1.0 .14 10% .27 75% .20
Feb
27		 Southern Miss F F F F F 46% 10% 44% A- F F A+ C- A+ A- F C+ D+ B A- F F 33% 16% 51% F F A D- B- B C D C-
0.85 39% 0% 18% -23 +2 0.60 18% 1.5 .27 9% .43 60% .26 1.05 53% 29% 43% +4 0 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 22% .35 78% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.0 96.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 14.1 96.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 14.1 0.3 15.5 59.4 24.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.9%
Lose Out 35.1%