St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +1.6 133
Results Rating +0.8 145
Consistency 0.12 31
Pace 67.3 219
Improvement -2.3 276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 81 B- B- C C- D+
Defense C- 242 D+ C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 144 C+ 60% 121 +1.4 122
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 57 A- 46% 22 +4.2 30
Three Pointers 34% 319 B 37% 61 -2.1 256
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 271 B +4.2 58
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 76
Second Chance B 34.9% 57 C- 1.00 225 B- 0.35 94
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 182
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 197
Turnovers C 16.9% 191
Freethrows D 0.27 296 B 77% 39 C- 0.21 235
Total Offense B- +3.9 81

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 59% 32 C 10.6% 153
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 58 B 2.7% 33
Three Pointers B- 88% 91 C- 1.1% 244
Total B- 61% 79 C+ 5.3% 148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 148 C 58% 191 +0.8 213
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 192 C- 39% 234 +0.0 191
Three Pointers 40% 201 D 37% 310 +1.5 261
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 198 D+ +2.2 269
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 255
Second Chance C+ 28.9% 115 C- 1.07 234 C 0.31 172
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.6% 97
Other Turnovers D 6.4% 299
Turnovers C 17.0% 165
Freethrows C+ 0.28 113 F+ 77% 355 C 0.22 173
Total Defense C- -2.3 242

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 263 B+ 16.2% 35
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 247 C 5.3% 137
Three Pointers D+ 87% 285 C 0.9% 156
Total D+ 60% 272 B+ 7.9% 37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 130 17.8 264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 34 0.17 182
Consistency 0.11 103 0.12 170
Improvement +1.8 97 -4.1 344

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 159 138 118
Results Rating Rank 200 148 121
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 13 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.0 14.1
.500 or above 59% 88% 46%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 32 - 7
Quad 36 - 78 - 14
Quad 48 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 114 Bradley W 69 - 63 44% +4  82% 1 - 0 B +9 C- -1 D C- C- A +11 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 343 Canisius W 89 - 70 93% +10  87% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A+ +18 C A+ B+ F -12 F B- D
 Wed, Nov 12 201 Siena W 75 - 66 75% +3  63% 3 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +4 C A+ D C+ +1 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 204 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 75% +1  54% 4 - 0 C -1 B +7 A+ B- D- F+ -8 C F C-
 Thu, Nov 20 161 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 68% +7  97% 5 - 0 B +11 C- -1 C+ C F A+ +12 A+ B A-
 Tue, Nov 25 26 North Carolina L 70 - 85 10% -8  1% 5 - 1 C +0 C -0 C+ B- B C+ +1 C- D A+
 Thu, Nov 27 248 East Carolina W 67 - 58 73% +3  90% 6 - 1 C+ +4 F -10 F D+ D- A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 120 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 34% +4  87% 7 - 1 B +11 C+ +3 A+ F+ D A- +8 A D B
 Sat, Dec 6 206 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 54% +7  98% 8 - 1 B +8 C+ +2 C+ A- F B+ +6 D F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 250 Colgate W 85 - 77 81% -3  32% 9 - 1 C +0 B- +5 C+ B- D D -5 B F F
 Sat, Dec 13 210 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 66% -2  16% 9 - 2 D+ -8 C- -2 D C D D -5 F+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 293 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 87% +2  68% 10 - 2 C +0 A+ +15 A B+ B+ F -14 C F F+
 Wed, Dec 31 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 12% -0  43% 10 - 3 0 - 1 B- +7 A+ +15 A- B+ B D- -8 D+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 130 Richmond L 80 - 89 60% -7  2% 10 - 4 0 - 2 D -10 C+ +3 D A+ A+ F -13 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 153 Fordham L 77 - 81 66% -2  26% 10 - 5 0 - 3 D+ -7 B+ +8 B+ A+ C F -15 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 126 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 34% -4  21% 10 - 6 0 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F+ C C+ B- +3 C- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 212 @La Salle L 74 - 78 56% -2  19% 10 - 7 0 - 5 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ F C F -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 283 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 86% -3  28% 11 - 7 1 - 5 C+ +4 B- +5 D+ D+ A+ C -1 F A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 25 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 15% -25  0% 11 - 8 1 - 6 F -22 D- -7 C- D- C F -15 F C- D
 Wed, Jan 28 119 @Duquesne W 87 - 79 34% -2  29% 12 - 8 2 - 6 B+ +14 A+ +15 A+ D+ A+ C -1 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 109 George Mason L 73 - 77 53% +8  96% 12 - 9 2 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 A+ D F C -0 D- C- A+
 Tue, Feb 3 77 @Dayton L 70 - 72 20% -3  16% 12 - 10 2 - 8 B +9 B+ +9 B+ B- B- C -0 B B- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 153 @Fordham W 70 - 67 44% -0  43% 13 - 10 3 - 8 B- +6 B+ +9 A+ B F C- -2 F+ A B-
 Sat, Feb 14 119 Duquesne L 73 - 78 56% -7  5% 13 - 11 3 - 9 D+ -5 C- -1 C B D- D+ -4 C A F
 Wed, Feb 18 126 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 71 57% -2  29% 13 - 12 3 - 10 D+ -6 D- -7 F+ C- C C+ +0 B C+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 130 @Richmond L 94 - 99 37% -0  46% 13 - 13 3 - 11 C +0 A+ +15 A+ D+ B+ F -15 F D D
 Thu, Feb 26 131 Rhode Island W 94 - 76 60% +9  91% 14 - 13 4 - 11 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ A+ A+ D+ -3 D+ C C-
 Sat, Feb 28 109 @George Mason L 71 - 76 31%
 Wed, Mar 4 78 @George Washington L 77 - 86 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 110 Davidson W 72 - 71 53%
Totals 15 - 15 5 - 13 +2 B- +4 C- B D+ C- -2 B B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ A- B B 40% 49% 34% D+ B- B C- B- C D B C- C- C C- D D+ 40% 20% 40% C- D+ C+ C- C C C+ F+ C
1.14 60% 46% 37% +4 -1 1.09 35% 1.0 .35 17% .27 77% .21 1.12 58% 39% 37% +2 0 1.07 29% 1.1 .31 17% .28 77% .21
Nov
3		 Bradley C- F A- C+ D 30% 30% 40% C- D A- F C- C- C- B C A F F A D+ 33% 25% 41% B- C- A+ A+ A+ C- A B+ A
1.04 40% 47% 35% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.7 .28 20% .32 76% .24 0.95 71% 46% 29% +3 -1 1.06 15% 0.0 .00 14% .23 69% .16
Nov
8		 Canisius A+ C B+ C+ C 33% 24% 43% D C A+ B- A+ B+ C+ B+ B- F F F F F 29% 31% 40% A- F B- B- B- D D C D
1.39 61% 46% 35% +3 -1 1.07 57% 1.1 .63 13% .32 78% .25 1.10 62% 50% 44% +11 -2 1.20 24% 0.9 .21 17% .32 71% .23
Nov
12		 Siena C+ F A+ B C 51% 32% 17% C- C A A+ A+ D C D C- C+ A+ F A A+ 34% 39% 27% A A+ F F F A F C F
1.17 46% 60% 38% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.3 .57 19% .29 67% .19 1.03 27% 53% 25% -9 -3 0.80 45% 1.2 .55 22% .48 75% .36
Nov
15		 Youngstown St. B A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 26% 26% C A+ A- D+ B- D- B- D C F+ D A+ B C+ 40% 8% 52% D- C D+ F F C- D- B+ D+
1.20 70% 50% 50% +15 0 1.32 38% 0.9 .35 21% .36 70% .25 1.14 65% 25% 31% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.8 .56 19% .32 67% .21
Nov
20		 Robert Morris C- B- F D C 56% 10% 33% A C+ A+ F C F D- A- D+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% F A+ B- B B A- C F F+
1.09 63% 20% 31% -1 +3 1.06 42% 0.7 .28 20% .31 82% .26 0.89 33% 43% 25% -16 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 22% .24 92% .22
Nov
25		 North Carolina C F C A+ C 43% 28% 28% B- C+ C+ B B- B F+ F F+ C+ C+ B+ F C- 43% 20% 37% C C- C F D A+ F F F
0.98 42% 35% 41% -5 -1 0.92 27% 1.0 .27 13% .13 63% .08 1.19 60% 33% 47% +7 +1 1.17 33% 1.3 .43 18% .46 78% .36
Nov
27		 East Carolina F C D+ F D- 23% 38% 40% F F D- B- D+ D- C- A+ B- A+ A+ B C- A+ 40% 27% 33% C A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21 0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39
Nov
30		 Florida Atlantic C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 56% 14% 30% B+ A+ F C+ F+ D A+ F B+ A- A+ F A A+ 37% 15% 48% D+ A D D+ D B B- A- B
1.08 54% 67% 46% +7 +2 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 18% .41 64% .26 1.00 41% 57% 27% -8 +1 0.87 36% 1.1 .41 20% .27 64% .17
Dec
6		 Buffalo C+ B+ C- B C+ 36% 18% 47% D+ C+ A+ D- A- F C A+ B B+ F B+ C D 43% 13% 43% D D A- F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24 1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14
Dec
10		 Colgate B- A+ B F B 38% 33% 29% F+ C+ A+ F B- D A+ A A+ D D C A+ B 37% 30% 33% B- B F F+ F F D+ A+ B+
1.22 75% 41% 27% +4 -2 1.08 43% 0.8 .35 17% .42 79% .33 1.10 62% 41% 26% -1 -1 0.96 37% 1.1 .41 9% .30 53% .16
Dec
13		 Ohio C- C- B- F D+ 43% 33% 24% F+ D B+ F+ C D C- A+ B+ D D+ F C+ F 33% 33% 35% A- F+ B F F D+ A+ F A-
1.08 56% 42% 29% -2 -1 0.97 40% 0.9 .34 18% .30 89% .27 1.14 61% 67% 32% +9 -2 1.16 24% 2.2 .52 14% .20 85% .17
Dec
20		 Le Moyne A+ F+ F A+ A 40% 12% 49% B A B+ B B+ B+ A+ B A+ F C- B B- C+ 39% 12% 49% D+ C F F F F+ F F F
1.35 47% 20% 52% +7 +1 1.19 38% 1.2 .44 12% .58 77% .45 1.19 60% 33% 32% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.5 .46 16% .42 79% .33
Dec
31		 Virginia Commonwealth A+ B D A+ A 49% 34% 17% D A- A- C+ B+ B D+ A+ B D- F A- A+ C- 48% 13% 40% D+ D+ A+ F C- F F F F
1.21 62% 33% 56% +6 -1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 15% .26 93% .24 1.31 78% 33% 26% +5 +2 1.15 20% 2.0 .40 10% .46 93% .43
Jan
7		 Richmond C+ F A+ F D- 41% 17% 41% A- D C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F F C+ C D+ 35% 29% 35% C- D+ F F F C F C F
1.15 46% 60% 25% -7 +1 0.90 33% 1.6 .53 10% .21 62% .13 1.28 76% 36% 35% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 14% .50 77% .39
Jan
10		 Fordham B+ B+ D+ A A- 27% 24% 49% C B+ B A+ A+ C F A+ D+ F D A+ F F 51% 16% 33% F F A- A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.16 64% 33% 40% +5 -1 1.10 31% 1.4 .45 17% .18 90% .16 1.22 64% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 29% 0.5 .14 14% .31 94% .29
Jan
14		 Saint Joseph's C- F D+ C F+ 39% 33% 28% D+ F+ A F C C+ C B C+ B- B- B- C- C 45% 12% 43% D C- B A+ A+ B D+ F F+
0.97 38% 33% 33% -10 -2 0.80 40% 0.8 .30 15% .21 75% .16 1.03 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 20% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 La Salle B+ B A+ A+ A+ 45% 22% 33% C A+ A- F F C F F F F F A- F F 33% 33% 33% A F D- F F A+ F F F
1.17 64% 64% 44% +13 0 1.29 38% 0.5 .19 17% .17 56% .10 1.23 85% 31% 54% +16 -2 1.31 39% 1.3 .50 27% .43 100% .43
Jan
20		 Loyola Chicago B- C F B+ D+ 32% 27% 41% D D+ F+ A- D+ A+ B- A+ A C D- A+ F F 35% 13% 52% C+ F B A+ A+ A B- D- C
1.22 56% 27% 39% -1 -1 0.98 22% 1.3 .27 6% .31 95% .29 1.02 65% 17% 44% +7 +1 1.19 28% 0.2 .06 23% .28 73% .21
Jan
23		 Saint Louis D- C C+ F C 32% 34% 34% F+ C- B- F D- C A F+ B F C A+ F F 46% 2% 52% D+ F B F C- D A+ A+ A+
0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27 1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07
Jan
28		 Duquesne A+ D A+ A+ A+ 43% 29% 29% C- A+ F A+ D+ A+ A A A+ C A+ F F F+ 40% 12% 48% C+ D- C A+ A+ D- C- A+ A-
1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34 1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 George Mason D+ C- A+ A+ A+ 47% 29% 24% C A+ D- C+ D F A+ F A C F F A+ D 50% 12% 38% F D- C- C- C- A+ A+ A- A+
1.04 57% 62% 45% +11 0 1.22 19% 1.0 .19 20% .44 56% .25 1.09 73% 67% 25% +6 +2 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 23% .28 67% .18
Feb
3		 Dayton B+ A+ A+ F A- 32% 30% 38% D B+ A- D+ B- B- B- A+ A- C F+ A+ B- B 40% 16% 44% B- B C+ B B- D+ F F F
1.10 87% 50% 22% +6 -2 1.11 37% 0.9 .33 20% .33 82% .28 1.13 71% 0% 32% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .61 85% .52
Feb
7		 Fordham B+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 48% 23% F A+ A+ D- B F F B F C- D A- F F+ 35% 20% 46% C F+ C A+ A B- D C- D
1.13 69% 57% 50% +18 -4 1.30 39% 0.9 .35 27% .16 71% .11 1.08 63% 33% 38% +3 0 1.09 34% 0.6 .22 19% .28 71% .20
Feb
14		 Duquesne C- C+ B F C+ 41% 43% 16% F C C+ B B D- B+ C+ B+ D+ C A- D+ C 39% 12% 49% B- C A+ C+ A F A B A
1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29 1.13 59% 29% 36% 0 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17
Feb
18		 Saint Joseph's D- F+ F C D- 29% 36% 36% F+ F+ C- D+ C- C F A+ D- C+ A+ F B+ B+ 42% 7% 51% D- B B- C+ C+ F+ B+ A- A-
0.94 47% 24% 33% -9 -3 0.80 30% 0.9 .27 16% .10 100% .10 1.02 43% 75% 29% -8 +2 0.91 30% 1.0 .30 13% .21 69% .15
Feb
21		 Richmond A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 21% 36% 43% F A+ C F+ D+ B+ D B C- F F F F F 29% 20% 51% D- F B F D D F C+ F
1.28 83% 40% 46% +14 -3 1.23 30% 1.0 .30 14% .25 75% .19 1.35 80% 60% 42% +17 -1 1.35 21% 1.5 .32 12% .43 75% .33
Feb
26		 Rhode Island A+ A A+ A- A+ 38% 22% 40% D+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B- A B+ D+ A C+ F D+ 47% 16% 37% D+ D+ A F C C- A- F C+
1.35 68% 55% 40% +11 0 1.24 36% 1.7 .61 14% .38 78% .30 1.09 46% 38% 47% +2 +1 1.08 25% 1.3 .31 19% .28 88% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.4 0.4 9th
10th 1.2 2.0 3.2 10th
11th 4.3 12.0 1.3 17.7 11th
12th 9.2 32.6 10.6 0.1 52.5 12th
13th 17.7 8.2 0.2 26.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 26.9 45.2 24.0 3.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 24.0% 0.4% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 23.9
5-13 45.2% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 45.0
4-14 26.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 26.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.6 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 10.3%