St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.2 #42
Expected Predictive Rating +15.4 #31
Pace 64.5 #300
Improvement -2.2 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #45 B A C+ A+ C+
Defense #54 A- B+ D+ A B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.20 #130 +2.9 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.71 #243 -0.8 #219
Three Pointers 38% #243 1.18 #13 +1.8 #126
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #74 +3.9 #74
Freethrows 20.1 #54 84% #2 17.0 #6
Second Chance 38.7% #18 1.12 #97 0.43 #27
Turnovers 16.0% #139
Total Offense +7.2 #45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #194 1.02 #29 +2.8 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #60 0.77 #192 -1.8 #306
Three Pointers 37% #295 0.88 #40 +4.6 #28
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #33 +5.6 #33
Freethrows 12.0 #9 76% #309 9.1 #349
Second Chance 25.2% #25 1.01 #136 0.25 #38
Turnovers 14.9% #278
Total Defense +5.1 #54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #140 -1.1% #87
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.8% #74 -9.9% #30
Possession Length 17.9 #233 17.9 #275
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #160 0.19 #250
Improvement +1.6 #89 -3.8 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.7% 3.0% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.5% 56.6% 37.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.9% 46.2% 27.0%
Average Seed 9.9 9.6 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 18.6% 27.1% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.8% 16.0% 15.6%
First Round39.1% 48.8% 30.1%
Second Round16.6% 22.1% 11.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 5.4% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.6% 0.9%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 5
Quad 312 - 118 - 6
Quad 47 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 89% +11  1 - 0 +25 +16 A+ C- B+ +11 B A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 267 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 96% +12  2 - 0 +12 +12 A+ F F +1 C- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 178 Ohio W 90 - 60 93% +15  3 - 0 +26 +15 B- A+ A- +11 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 137 North Texas W 80 - 49 90% +23  4 - 0 +29 +15 C- A+ D +16 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 133 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 89% +7  5 - 0 +11 +12 B A+ F -1 B+ C F
 Wed, Nov 26 105 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 76% +3  6 - 0 +10 +0 F B- A +10 A+ A+ A
 Thu, Nov 27 64 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 63% +8  7 - 0 +20 +11 A+ A+ F +9 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 9 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 22% -13  7 - 1 -5 +5 A- C F -9 B+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 149 @Davidson W 70 - 61 79% +1  8 - 1 +13 +7 B- A- C +7 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 78 Boise St. L 67 - 68 68% -6  8 - 2 +6 +1 F C+ C+ +5 C A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 102 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 83% +10  9 - 2 +15 +9 C A C +5 A+ B- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 107 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 85% -2  10 - 2 +6 +3 F A+ C +4 B+ B- D+
 Sun, Dec 28 130 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 76% +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +10 +24 A+ A+ A+ -13 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 286 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 93% +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +10 B C+ C+ +17 A+ C+ B
 Fri, Jan 2 233 Portland W 78 - 57 95% +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +14 +9 A+ C C+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 121 Seattle W 93 - 76 88% +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +16 +32 A+ A+ A+ -14 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 136 Washington St. W 88 - 82 90% +9  15 - 2 5 - 0 +4 +13 A+ F F -9 F B C+
 Tue, Jan 13 103 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 66% +9  16 - 2 6 - 0 +22 +18 A+ A+ D+ +5 C+ A D
 Sat, Jan 17 55 @Santa Clara L 75 - 76 48%
 Wed, Jan 21 189 Oregon St. W 79 - 62 94%
 Sat, Jan 24 233 @Portland W 80 - 67 89%
 Sat, Jan 31 10 @Gonzaga L 71 - 82 16%
 Wed, Feb 4 222 San Diego W 84 - 65 96%
 Sat, Feb 7 103 San Francisco W 75 - 65 83%
 Wed, Feb 11 286 Pepperdine W 80 - 58 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 144 @Pacific W 75 - 67 78%
 Wed, Feb 18 121 @Seattle W 73 - 66 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 136 @Washington St. W 77 - 69 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 55 Santa Clara W 78 - 73 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 10 Gonzaga L 74 - 79 32%
Totals 25 - 5 15 - 3 +12 +7 B A C+ +5 A- B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.5 8.1 6.9 0.9 18.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 6.9 19.1 23.0 10.3 60.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.8 7.3 5.3 0.7 19.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.3 14.3 24.6 26.3 18.4 6.9 0.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 6.9    4.5 2.3
16-2 43.8% 8.1    2.8 5.1 0.2
15-3 9.7% 2.5    0.4 1.7 0.4
14-4 1.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 8.6 9.3 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 97.3% 36.8% 60.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.7%
17-1 6.9% 85.8% 30.3% 55.5% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.0 79.7%
16-2 18.4% 69.2% 22.2% 47.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.2 3.3 0.0 5.7 60.5%
15-3 26.3% 51.7% 18.3% 33.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 6.8 0.1 12.7 40.9%
14-4 24.6% 36.2% 13.1% 23.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 5.9 0.1 15.7 26.5%
13-5 14.3% 23.5% 10.2% 13.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 0.2 10.9 14.8%
12-6 6.3% 15.9% 7.8% 8.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 5.3 8.8%
11-7 1.9% 7.2% 5.1% 2.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.3%
10-8 0.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.4 1.2%
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 46.5% 16.6% 29.9% 9.9 53.5 35.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.4 1.5 17.6 33.8 35.3 7.4 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 96.3% 6.9 2.4 2.4 37.8 22.0 20.7 9.8 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 94.3% 7.8 8.6 11.4 20.0 22.9 20.0 8.6 2.9