St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#30
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#25
Pace63.4#324
Improvement-0.6#231

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#59
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#93
Layup/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#172
Freethrows+5.4#4
Improvement-1.4#308

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#15
First Shot+4.0#63
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#12
Layups/Dunks+0.7#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#112
Freethrows+2.8#40
Improvement+0.8#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 4.8% 8.3% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 13.5% 21.3% 8.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.7% 75.5% 55.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.1% 67.8% 45.4%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.6% 98.9%
Conference Champion 22.1% 25.5% 19.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.7% 10.6% 12.5%
First Round58.5% 71.0% 50.0%
Second Round33.8% 43.6% 27.2%
Sweet Sixteen11.8% 16.3% 8.7%
Elite Eight4.8% 7.1% 3.3%
Final Four1.6% 2.7% 0.9%
Championship Game0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Neutral) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 25 - 28 - 5
Quad 39 - 117 - 6
Quad 49 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 158 St. Thomas W 84-58 93%     1 - 0 +22.6 +16.2 +8.5
  Fri, Nov 7 188 Chattanooga W 87-66 95%     2 - 0 +16.2 +13.2 +3.8
  Tue, Nov 11 207 Ohio W 90-60 95%     3 - 0 +24.0 +14.1 +10.1
  Fri, Nov 14 123 North Texas W 80-49 89%     4 - 0 +30.8 +13.9 +18.3
  Wed, Nov 19 172 Arkansas St. W 85-72 94%     5 - 0 +8.8 +11.6 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 26 92 Wichita St. W 70-65 77%     6 - 0 +10.7 +1.5 +9.2
  Thu, Nov 27 63 Virginia Tech W 77-66 68%     7 - 0 +19.5 +10.4 +9.5
  Fri, Nov 28 19 Vanderbilt L 72-75 40%    
  Sun, Dec 7 135 @Davidson W 71-62 79%    
  Sun, Dec 14 61 Boise St. W 68-64 65%    
  Fri, Dec 19 111 Florida Atlantic W 77-64 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 90 Northern Iowa W 68-57 83%    
  Sun, Dec 28 114 @Loyola Marymount W 69-62 75%    
  Tue, Dec 30 264 @Pepperdine W 76-60 92%    
  Fri, Jan 2 274 Portland W 82-59 98%    
  Sun, Jan 4 116 Seattle W 74-61 89%    
  Sat, Jan 10 157 Washington St. W 82-65 94%    
  Tue, Jan 13 77 @San Francisco W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 59 @Santa Clara W 70-69 54%    
  Wed, Jan 21 169 Oregon St. W 75-57 94%    
  Sat, Jan 24 274 @Portland W 79-62 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 6 @Gonzaga L 67-76 20%    
  Wed, Feb 4 247 San Diego W 83-62 97%    
  Sat, Feb 7 77 San Francisco W 74-65 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 264 Pepperdine W 79-57 97%    
  Sat, Feb 14 144 @Pacific W 73-63 80%    
  Wed, Feb 18 116 @Seattle W 71-64 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 157 @Washington St. W 79-68 83%    
  Wed, Feb 25 59 Santa Clara W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 6 Gonzaga L 70-73 39%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 8.4 6.9 1.4 22.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 7.5 14.8 14.9 5.3 44.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.5 7.7 3.8 0.4 19.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 6.4 11.0 16.2 19.8 19.5 13.7 6.9 1.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 6.9    5.5 1.4
16-2 61.2% 8.4    4.1 4.2 0.1
15-3 21.7% 4.2    1.2 2.5 0.5
14-4 5.8% 1.1    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 12.4 8.7 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 3.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 6.9% 97.8% 42.3% 55.4% 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.1%
16-2 13.7% 92.9% 33.8% 59.1% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.4 0.4 1.0 89.2%
15-3 19.5% 83.6% 26.3% 57.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.9 1.9 0.0 3.2 77.8%
14-4 19.8% 68.8% 19.6% 49.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.6 3.7 0.1 6.2 61.2%
13-5 16.2% 50.8% 13.9% 36.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.7 3.6 0.2 8.0 42.8%
12-6 11.0% 31.4% 9.3% 22.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 0.1 7.6 24.3%
11-7 6.4% 15.6% 5.4% 10.1% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 5.4 10.7%
10-8 3.0% 9.8% 4.1% 5.8% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.7 6.0%
9-9 1.5% 4.6% 3.4% 1.1% 11.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.2%
8-10 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 63.7% 21.0% 42.7% 8.4 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.7 3.7 5.0 6.1 7.6 9.6 13.8 12.6 0.5 36.3 54.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 42.9 30.4 23.2 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 3.3 8.7 8.7 39.1 34.8 6.5 2.2