TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#51
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#81
Pace69.3#197
Improvement+4.1#7

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#80
First Shot+2.3#109
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#89
Layup/Dunks-0.2#189
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#130
Freethrows+1.9#73
Improvement+1.9#34

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#31
First Shot+6.1#29
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#169
Layups/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#193
Freethrows+1.3#106
Improvement+2.1#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 3.6% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 7.3% 12.5% 4.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.9% 50.9% 30.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.3% 50.3% 29.7%
Average Seed 8.2 7.9 8.5
.500 or above 73.4% 85.9% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 49.6% 35.7%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 4.1% 7.4%
First Four5.1% 5.2% 5.1%
First Round35.0% 47.9% 27.4%
Second Round18.4% 26.5% 13.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 7.8% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.9% 3.0% 1.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Neutral) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 13
Quad 33 - 112 - 14
Quad 46 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 205 New Orleans L 74-78 93%     0 - 1 -9.9 -6.6 -3.0
  Thu, Nov 6 359 St. Francis (PA) W 104-63 99%     1 - 1 +24.1 +14.7 +5.4
  Mon, Nov 10 199 Lamar W 78-65 92%     2 - 1 +7.6 +12.1 -3.4
  Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63-67 13%     2 - 2 +18.7 +3.0 +15.7
  Wed, Nov 19 335 UMKC W 81-45 98%     3 - 2 +22.5 +1.9 +20.1
  Thu, Nov 27 17 Florida W 84-80 26%     4 - 2 +21.1 +13.5 +7.3
  Fri, Nov 28 27 Wisconsin L 73-77 37%    
  Fri, Dec 5 66 Notre Dame W 71-66 67%    
  Sun, Dec 7 123 @North Texas W 68-63 66%    
  Mon, Dec 15 192 Incarnate Word W 79-64 92%    
  Thu, Dec 18 296 Oral Roberts W 87-66 97%    
  Sun, Dec 21 351 Florida A&M W 85-59 99%    
  Mon, Dec 29 326 Jackson St. W 84-61 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 28 Baylor L 75-76 48%    
  Tue, Jan 6 18 @Kansas L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 11 Arizona L 72-77 31%    
  Wed, Jan 14 7 @BYU L 67-79 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 125 @Utah W 77-72 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 46 Oklahoma St. W 81-79 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 28 @Baylor L 72-79 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 5 Houston L 63-69 28%    
  Sun, Feb 1 72 @Colorado L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 54 Kansas St. W 81-77 63%    
  Tue, Feb 10 4 Iowa St. L 69-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 14 46 @Oklahoma St. L 78-82 36%    
  Tue, Feb 17 68 @Central Florida L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 71 West Virginia W 70-65 69%    
  Tue, Feb 24 83 Arizona St. W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 54 @Kansas St. L 78-80 41%    
  Tue, Mar 3 24 @Texas Tech L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Mar 7 65 Cincinnati W 74-69 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 3.4 1.3 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.5 1.0 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 5.3 2.3 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.6 4.3 3.7 0.4 9.1 10th
11th 0.2 2.8 4.8 1.1 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 4.7 1.9 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 3.5 2.8 0.3 7.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.9 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 6.3 8.9 11.6 13.3 14.0 12.4 10.2 8.1 5.1 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 94.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 52.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.5% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.7% 99.8% 5.5% 94.3% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 5.1% 98.4% 4.1% 94.3% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 98.3%
11-7 8.1% 93.4% 1.6% 91.7% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.5 93.2%
10-8 10.2% 81.5% 1.1% 80.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 81.3%
9-9 12.4% 61.3% 0.6% 60.7% 9.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.6 1.5 0.0 4.8 61.0%
8-10 14.0% 23.8% 0.2% 23.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.1 10.7 23.6%
7-11 13.3% 6.8% 0.2% 6.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 12.4 6.6%
6-12 11.6% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.4 1.0%
5-13 8.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 8.9 0.1%
4-14 6.3% 6.3
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 37.9% 0.9% 36.9% 8.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.2 7.1 7.0 6.6 4.4 0.2 62.1 37.3%