UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.5 #122
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #140
Pace 70.7 #131
Improvement +1.6 #99

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #247 D C+ C C D+
Defense #48 A- C+ C B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.05 #305 -0.1 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.68 #268 +2.0 #81
Three Pointers 30% #356 1.02 #176 -5.8 #336
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #288 -3.9 #288
Freethrows 18.8 #108 67% #326 12.6 #183
Second Chance 30.4% #189 1.16 #52 0.35 #106
Turnovers 16.7% #180
Total Offense -2.8 #247

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #185 0.90 #3 +5.0 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #76 0.72 #133 -1.0 #260
Three Pointers 37% #281 1.02 #196 +1.8 #114
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #30 +5.9 #30
Freethrows 14.7 #57 73% #220 10.8 #296
Second Chance 33.8% #295 0.88 #21 0.30 #131
Turnovers 17.1% #147
Total Defense +5.3 #48

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #276 -0.9% #97
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #277 -10.6% #24
Possession Length 16.9 #143 17.2 #174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #188 0.17 #181
Improvement +3.8 #14 -2.2 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.4% 24.2% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 97.4% 99.1% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 32.6% 41.3% 21.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.4% 24.2% 18.0%
Second Round1.5% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 37 - 67 - 10
Quad 413 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 157 California Baptist L 61 - 69 70% -3  0 - 1 -11 -13 F F B- +3 B- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 197 Weber St. W 79 - 70 77% +8  1 - 1 +4 -6 C- D- D +8 A+ A- C+
 Wed, Nov 19 101 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 29% -6  1 - 2 +1 +4 F A- A -3 C+ C F
 Sat, Nov 22 107 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 55% -3  1 - 3 +0 -1 D- A+ A+ +1 A- A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 139 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 55% -5  1 - 4 -11 -27 F F F +16 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 176 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 64% +7  2 - 4 +11 -14 F F F +24 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 30 227 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 62% +5  3 - 4 +8 +2 D- C- A +7 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 287 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 88% +11  4 - 4 1 - 0 +3 -3 C- D D +6 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 216 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 79% -0  5 - 4 2 - 0 +8 +9 D+ A+ C -1 B A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 79 Belmont L 58 - 84 43% -8  5 - 5 -22 -14 F F A+ -8 F C A-
 Sun, Dec 21 148 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 57% +3  6 - 5 +2 +5 C+ B A- -3 D+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 289 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 82% +16  7 - 5 +12 +18 B A+ B- -5 D+ F A
 Thu, Jan 1 293 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 75% +6  8 - 5 3 - 0 -1 +7 B- A- F -8 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 231 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 62% +9  9 - 5 4 - 0 +21 +13 A+ A+ F +8 A+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 8 264 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 85% +7  10 - 5 5 - 0 +1 -5 F F A+ +6 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 104 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 30% -2  10 - 6 5 - 1 +7 +0 D+ A+ F +7 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 188 @UC Davis W 73 - 72 55%
 Thu, Jan 22 287 @UC Riverside W 73 - 66 74%
 Sat, Jan 24 109 @UC San Diego L 68 - 73 33%
 Thu, Jan 29 104 Hawaii W 68 - 67 52%
 Thu, Feb 5 293 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 65 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 181 @UC Santa Barbara W 71 - 70 54%
 Thu, Feb 12 249 @Cal Poly W 80 - 76 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 82 - 73 80%
 Thu, Feb 19 264 @Long Beach St. W 73 - 68 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 109 UC San Diego W 71 - 70 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 216 @Cal St. Northridge W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 181 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 67 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 249 Cal Poly W 83 - 73 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 188 UC Davis W 76 - 69 74%
Totals 19 - 11 14 - 6 +2 -3 D C+ C +5 A- C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 7.4 10.2 7.7 3.2 0.7 32.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.2 10.1 9.6 4.5 0.9 0.0 31.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.2 8.5 5.2 1.5 0.1 22.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.9 10.7 15.0 18.3 18.5 14.8 8.6 3.2 0.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 98.9% 3.2    3.0 0.2
17-3 89.9% 7.7    6.3 1.4 0.0
16-4 68.8% 10.2    6.6 3.3 0.3
15-5 40.0% 7.4    3.3 3.3 0.8 0.0
14-6 15.8% 2.9    0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.6% 32.6 20.7 9.7 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 43.2% 43.2% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4
18-2 3.2% 41.0% 41.0% 12.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9
17-3 8.6% 35.8% 35.8% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.5
16-4 14.8% 31.4% 31.4% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 10.1
15-5 18.5% 26.5% 26.5% 13.3 0.5 2.3 1.9 0.1 13.6
14-6 18.3% 19.6% 19.6% 13.6 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.3 14.7
13-7 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 13.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 12.8
12-8 10.7% 8.8% 8.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.8
11-9 5.9% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-10 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
9-11 1.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 13.3 78.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.7 36.5 60.3 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%