UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +2.8 123
Results Rating +2.0 129
Consistency 0.12 47
Pace 70.8 116
Improvement +1.1 142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 273 D+ C D+ D+ D+
Defense B+ 33 A- C C+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 63 D 53% 298 +0.6 158
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 27 C 39% 157 +3.1 45
Three Pointers 28% 360 C 34% 161 -6.2 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 282 C- -1.8 239
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 254
Second Chance C 30.6% 173 C 1.02 191 C 0.31 170
Opponents' Steals C 9.7% 211
Other Turnovers D+ 8.3% 302
Turnovers D+ 18.0% 266
Freethrows C- 0.29 220 D 68% 317 D+ 0.20 263
Total Offense D+ -3.9 273

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 67 C- 12.2% 255
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 38% 29 B- 4.1% 111
Three Pointers B- 89% 81 D 1.4% 300
Total C+ 59% 113 D 6.8% 307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 221 A+ 45% 2 -5.7 28
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 66 C 38% 164 +1.1 282
Three Pointers 38% 258 C+ 33% 114 -2.0 97
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 84 A- -5.8 18
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 23
Second Chance D 33.4% 299 B+ 0.92 39 C 0.31 164
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 139
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 104
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 107
Freethrows B 0.25 35 C+ 71% 129 B 0.18 42
Total Defense B+ +6.7 33

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 183 A+ 20.5% 8
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 312 B- 6.4% 87
Three Pointers C- 86% 237 D+ 0.5% 273
Total C- 57% 216 A 9.4% 11

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 126 17.2 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 170 0.17 185
Consistency 0.14 280 0.11 100
Improvement +1.3 113 -0.2 199

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 138 120 105
Results Rating Rank 155 127 93
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30% 33% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 65% 80% 34%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round30% 33% 24%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 78 - 11
Quad 413 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 134 California Baptist L 61 - 69 66% -3  38% 0 - 1 D -9 F -13 F+ D C+ B +4 C+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 208 Weber St. W 79 - 70 79% +8  91% 1 - 1 C+ +3 F+ -10 D D+ C- A+ +12 A+ B+ C+
 Wed, Nov 19 96 @Utah Valley L 72 - 79 28% -6  2% 1 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +2 F B+ A C -0 C C- F
 Sat, Nov 22 95 Northern Iowa L 69 - 70 OT 50% -3  15% 1 - 3 C+ +2 D+ -3 D- A A+ B +5 A A D-
 Tue, Nov 25 176 New Mexico St. L 45 - 57 65% -5  4% 1 - 4 D- -13 F -32 F F F A+ +19 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 209 South Dakota St. W 64 - 52 70% +7  86% 2 - 4 B +9 F -17 F F F A+ +26 A+ A A-
 Sun, Nov 30 221 @San Jose St. W 72 - 63 62% +5  89% 3 - 4 B +9 D+ -2 D C B- A+ +11 A A+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 281 UC Riverside W 73 - 60 88% +11  98% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -4 C D C- A- +7 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 157 Cal St. Northridge W 85 - 71 71% -0  30% 5 - 4 2 - 0 B +11 B+ +9 D+ A+ B- B- +2 B A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 62 Belmont L 58 - 84 38% -8  18% 5 - 5 F -20 F -17 F F A D+ -3 D C+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 137 North Dakota St. W 74 - 73 55% +3  72% 6 - 5 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ B B C -1 C F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 304 Norfolk St. W 89 - 70 86% +16  97% 7 - 5 B +10 A +13 B- A+ B+ C- -2 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 1 332 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 77 85% +6  98% 8 - 5 3 - 0 C- -4 C+ +2 B- A- F D -6 C- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 205 @Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 64 59% +9  80% 9 - 5 4 - 0 A +23 A +11 A A+ F+ A+ +11 A+ D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 265 Long Beach St. W 74 - 64 86% +7  75% 10 - 5 5 - 0 C +1 D- -7 F+ F A A- +8 C+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 116 @Hawaii L 66 - 67 38% -2  21% 10 - 6 5 - 1 B- +5 D+ -4 F+ A F A +9 B A- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 175 @UC Davis L 72 - 75 53% -2  9% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C -1 C- -1 D+ C+ D+ C -0 A+ F F+
 Thu, Jan 22 281 @UC Riverside W 80 - 66 74% +10  97% 11 - 7 6 - 2 B +10 B- +4 C B F B+ +6 A+ D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 132 @UC San Diego W 61 - 59 43% +1  59% 12 - 7 7 - 2 B- +7 F -10 D- D B- A+ +17 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 116 Hawaii W 87 - 76 OT 61% +2  67% 13 - 7 8 - 2 B +11 C +0 C+ B D A +9 A- A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 62 94% +5  68% 14 - 7 9 - 2 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ F A+ A +9 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 79 - 84 45% -6  35% 14 - 8 9 - 3 C -1 C+ +2 C+ F+ C+ C- -3 D+ D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 222 @Cal Poly L 73 - 79 63% +2  48% 14 - 9 9 - 4 D+ -6 F -13 D F F A- +7 B- F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 205 Cal St. Fullerton W 86 - 65 79% +7  67% 15 - 9 10 - 4 A- +16 C+ +4 A+ C+ D A +11 A+ F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 19 265 @Long Beach St. W 69 - 58 71% +7  98% 16 - 9 11 - 4 B +8 F -11 A+ F F A+ +18 A+ F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 132 UC San Diego L 69 - 71 66% -5  8% 16 - 10 11 - 5 C- -3 C+ +2 C B B+ D -6 D+ C D
 Thu, Feb 26 157 @Cal St. Northridge W 68 - 67 50% +3  68% 17 - 10 12 - 5 C+ +4 F+ -8 D+ B- F A+ +12 A- D A+
 Sat, Feb 28 142 UC Santa Barbara W 72 - 67 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 222 Cal Poly W 83 - 74 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 175 UC Davis W 74 - 67 75%
Totals 19 - 11 14 - 6 +3 D+ -4 B- C- D+ B+ +7 C D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C C C- 43% 57% 28% D+ D+ C C C D+ C- D D+ B+ A+ C C+ A- 37% 24% 38% B- A- D B+ C C+ B C+ B
1.03 53% 39% 34% -2 -1 0.97 31% 1.0 .31 18% .29 68% .20 0.99 45% 38% 33% -6 -1 0.89 33% 0.9 .31 18% .25 71% .21
Nov
7		 California Baptist F F F A+ F+ 40% 36% 25% F+ F+ D+ F D C+ B+ F D+ B A+ F F+ B- 48% 17% 35% D+ C+ F A C A+ C+ B+ B
0.85 33% 26% 46% -10 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .17 14% .37 57% .21 0.96 32% 56% 39% -7 +1 0.90 48% 0.7 .33 24% .28 67% .18
Nov
15		 Weber St. F+ C+ D- F D 48% 28% 24% D D C+ F D+ C- A+ D- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 23% 29% B A+ C- A B+ C+ D+ C+ D+
1.02 64% 31% 27% -2 0 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 17% .59 68% .40 0.90 56% 15% 19% -13 0 0.77 33% 0.8 .24 17% .37 71% .26
Nov
19		 Utah Valley C+ D D+ F F 34% 32% 34% F+ F C- A+ B+ A B- B B C C A+ C C+ 71% 10% 18% F C C- C C- F F A+ C+
1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27 1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19
Nov
22		 Northern Iowa D+ D F C+ D 44% 38% 18% F+ D- C A+ A A+ A+ F A B A+ D C A 35% 21% 44% B+ A D A+ A D- A C A
0.96 50% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.82 25% 1.4 .35 13% .42 62% .26 0.98 41% 46% 33% -5 0 0.92 24% 0.5 .12 11% .16 70% .11
Nov
25		 New Mexico St. F D+ F F F 27% 34% 39% F F F C F F A+ F A+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ 29% 37% 34% A- A+ F C+ D- A+ F B- F
0.64 55% 21% 13% -19 -3 0.59 17% 1.2 .20 26% .56 66% .37 0.82 50% 47% 7% -13 -3 0.71 41% 0.9 .38 30% .55 70% .39
Nov
26		 South Dakota St. F A- F F F 37% 21% 42% C F D+ F F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% C A+ A A A A- C- A+ B-
0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39 0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17
Nov
30		 San Jose St. D+ D- A F D- 55% 24% 22% C+ D C- B- C B- D F F A+ A+ A+ F+ A 31% 31% 38% C A F A+ A+ D+ B+ C- B
1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14 0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17
Dec
4		 UC Riverside D+ F A A+ C 46% 20% 34% C+ C F A- D C- A+ D- A- A- A+ A+ A- A+ 50% 15% 35% F+ A+ D- A B- F F A- F
1.07 35% 50% 53% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.1 .24 16% .45 65% .30 0.88 35% 25% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 0.6 .20 15% .48 68% .33
Dec
6		 Cal St. Northridge B+ F B B+ C- 42% 27% 31% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ B- B+ F C+ B- A+ A F B+ 48% 19% 33% C+ B A+ A A+ F C+ B B-
1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23 1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18
Dec
19		 Belmont F F F D+ F 25% 27% 48% D- F F+ F F A C+ F D D+ A+ F F D+ 49% 9% 43% D D D+ B+ C+ A- C- F D+
0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17 1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24
Dec
21		 North Dakota St. C+ B+ B- C- C+ 46% 24% 30% C+ C+ B- B B B B F C C A- B F C- 31% 27% 42% B- C F C- F A+ F A+ B-
1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18 1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17
Dec
22		 Norfolk St. A A A D B 44% 16% 40% C- B- A- A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ B- C- B+ B+ F D 28% 41% 30% A+ C- A- F F B+ D F F
1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29 1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30
Jan
1		 Cal St. Bakersfield C+ D+ D+ A+ A 29% 47% 24% F B- D A+ A- F A D- B+ D B+ B+ F C- 40% 40% 19% B- C- F B+ F+ F B+ D+ B
1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31 1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23
Jan
3		 Cal St. Fullerton A B+ F A+ A 40% 10% 50% B A A A+ A+ F+ B F D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ D- B- D+ D+ A+ D A
1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20 0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15
Jan
8		 Long Beach St. D- D+ B- F F+ 46% 32% 22% D F+ D- F F A A+ B A+ A- A- F+ C C 37% 41% 22% B+ C+ A A+ A+ C+ B D+ B
1.04 57% 44% 18% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 13% .45 79% .35 0.90 50% 45% 33% 0 -3 0.96 19% 0.3 .05 18% .22 77% .17
Jan
10		 Hawaii D+ F C+ F F 68% 20% 12% A F+ A+ D A F D A+ C A A F A+ B+ 48% 13% 38% D+ B D A+ A- C+ A+ B A+
0.93 41% 40% 17% -14 +2 0.78 44% 0.9 .39 21% .27 80% .21 0.94 48% 71% 25% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.7 .23 20% .23 69% .16
Jan
17		 UC Davis C- D B B+ C- 46% 28% 26% D D+ C- B+ C+ D+ F A+ C C A A+ C+ A+ 28% 21% 51% B A+ F+ F F F+ F A F
1.05 52% 43% 38% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 20% .24 100% .24 1.09 46% 20% 33% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.2 .41 15% .51 67% .34
Jan
22		 UC Riverside B- C A+ F C 47% 19% 34% C+ C A+ F B F A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F A A+ 45% 13% 42% F+ A+ F B- D C+ C+ F D-
1.13 59% 67% 25% +1 +1 1.06 49% 0.8 .37 20% .55 71% .39 0.93 33% 57% 27% -13 +1 0.79 36% 0.8 .29 20% .28 94% .26
Jan
24		 UC San Diego F F C- D- D- 40% 35% 25% F+ D- F+ B- D B- D- F F A+ A- C B A- 31% 19% 50% A- A- A A+ A+ D- A+ C+ A+
0.87 45% 37% 29% -8 -2 0.84 20% 1.1 .23 14% .22 54% .12 0.84 50% 36% 31% -5 0 0.91 18% 0.0 .00 13% .15 67% .10
Jan
29		 Hawaii C F+ A+ F C+ 53% 31% 17% C- C+ B+ C B D A+ D A- A A+ A+ F A 40% 10% 50% D+ A- A+ A+ A+ D+ A F C+
1.02 45% 61% 20% -3 0 0.95 33% 1.0 .33 19% .42 66% .28 0.90 32% 0% 42% -8 +2 0.89 19% 0.4 .09 18% .27 89% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Cal St. Bakersfield D- C- B F F 57% 20% 23% B F+ B- F F A+ A+ F C A A+ C A+ A 28% 54% 18% A+ A+ F+ D F+ A+ B+ F C-
1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27 0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28
Feb
7		 UC Santa Barbara C+ A+ D B+ B 36% 41% 23% F C+ D F F+ C+ F A+ F+ C- D F A D- 36% 28% 36% A- D+ F B D+ B- F C+ F
1.11 75% 35% 38% +6 -3 1.09 23% 0.9 .19 15% .22 92% .20 1.18 65% 69% 29% +9 -1 1.17 39% 0.9 .36 20% .44 76% .33
Feb
12		 Cal Poly F F F A+ D 34% 22% 44% D D D F F F F+ C- D- A- C A+ C- C+ 28% 10% 62% B+ B- F D- F A+ C A- B-
0.92 45% 23% 42% -2 -1 0.97 28% 0.5 .15 21% .22 71% .16 0.99 57% 0% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .43 26% .31 72% .22
Feb
14		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ B- A+ A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% F+ A+ C- B C+ D F F F A A+ F A+ A+ 22% 31% 47% A+ A+ B+ F F+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10 0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08
Feb
19		 Long Beach St. F B- A+ A+ A+ 55% 23% 23% B- A+ C- F F F A+ F A A+ A+ A A+ A+ 36% 36% 28% B- A+ F F F A- D+ F D-
0.94 64% 67% 44% +13 +1 1.30 27% 0.3 .08 30% .50 65% .33 0.79 37% 26% 7% -23 -2 0.51 33% 1.3 .42 22% .29 82% .24
Feb
21		 UC San Diego C+ F D A+ C 47% 23% 30% C+ C A- C- B B+ F C+ F D D+ A+ F D- 33% 25% 42% A+ D+ F A C D A- F B-
1.09 44% 33% 44% -3 0 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .13 71% .09 1.12 63% 25% 45% +5 -1 1.10 33% 0.8 .27 14% .20 82% .17
Feb
26		 Cal St. Northridge F+ D- A- F+ D 47% 25% 27% C D+ C A B- F F A- F A+ B+ D+ A+ A+ 58% 10% 33% F A- D- C D A+ F+ B- D
0.93 50% 46% 29% -4 0 0.94 27% 1.4 .37 25% .20 82% .16 0.92 50% 40% 24% -10 +3 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 23% .37 62% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.0 22.2 41.5 64.6 1st
2nd 0.1 9.3 19.3 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.9 5.5 3rd
4th 1.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.8 15.2 41.5 41.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 41.5    22.3 19.1
14-6 53.5% 22.2    2.8 13.1 6.3
13-7 6.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 64.6% 64.6 25.1 32.3 6.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 41.5% 35.6% 35.6% 12.9 0.0 3.4 9.5 1.9 0.0 26.7
14-6 41.5% 30.1% 30.1% 13.3 0.0 0.7 7.1 4.5 0.2 29.0
13-7 15.2% 17.1% 17.1% 13.5 0.0 1.3 1.2 0.1 12.6
12-8 1.8% 9.2% 9.2% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 13.1 70.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.8% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 22.7 64.4 12.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 15.7%
Lose Out 0.7%