American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#236
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#182
Pace59.6#358
Improvement+3.2#19

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#207
First Shot+2.3#112
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#342
Layup/Dunks-1.7#246
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#27
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement+1.1#101

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#265
First Shot-3.4#288
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#137
Layups/Dunks-8.0#359
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#7
Freethrows-2.4#318
Improvement+2.2#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 21.2% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 65.1% 83.7% 62.2%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 83.6% 74.0%
Conference Champion 21.8% 31.2% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 2.2% 4.3%
First Four4.7% 3.2% 4.9%
First Round13.2% 19.5% 12.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Away) - 13.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 817 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 143   @ La Salle L 52-65 22%     0 - 1 -9.0 -8.6 -2.8
  Nov 10, 2024 241   Harvard W 67-55 62%     1 - 1 +4.7 -1.1 +7.0
  Nov 12, 2024 302   @ Siena L 66-74 51%     1 - 2 -12.3 +3.9 -17.7
  Nov 15, 2024 17   @ North Carolina L 55-107 3%     1 - 3 -34.2 -14.4 -16.9
  Nov 18, 2024 141   @ High Point L 73-80 22%     1 - 4 -2.9 +12.0 -16.4
  Nov 22, 2024 292   UMKC W 64-60 61%     2 - 4 -2.8 -7.2 +4.6
  Nov 24, 2024 237   Albany W 81-77 50%     3 - 4 -0.1 +4.0 -4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 151   George Washington W 81-71 OT 44%     4 - 4 +7.6 -2.4 +8.9
  Dec 18, 2024 101   @ Saint Joseph's L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 22, 2024 90   @ Virginia L 52-65 11%    
  Dec 29, 2024 296   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 02, 2025 305   @ Navy W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 05, 2025 326   Holy Cross W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 08, 2025 268   @ Boston University L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 260   Bucknell W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 13, 2025 335   @ Loyola Maryland W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 326   @ Holy Cross W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 22, 2025 251   Lehigh W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 246   Colgate W 67-64 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 231   @ Lafayette L 62-65 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 282   Army W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 251   @ Lehigh L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 10, 2025 231   Lafayette W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 335   Loyola Maryland W 69-60 79%    
  Feb 19, 2025 282   @ Army L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 268   Boston University W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 26, 2025 305   Navy W 71-65 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 246   @ Colgate L 64-67 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.3 6.0 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.6 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 16.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.8 6.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 5.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.3 6.5 9.4 11.8 13.1 13.4 12.4 9.9 7.3 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
16-2 99.3% 2.0    1.9 0.1
15-3 95.6% 4.3    3.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 82.8% 6.0    4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 54.0% 5.3    2.6 2.1 0.6 0.0
12-6 21.9% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 14.2 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 43.7% 43.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 49.1% 49.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 37.8% 37.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3
15-3 4.5% 33.1% 33.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 3.0
14-4 7.3% 31.2% 31.2% 15.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.5 5.0
13-5 9.9% 24.6% 24.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 7.5
12-6 12.4% 19.4% 19.4% 15.7 0.1 0.6 1.7 10.0
11-7 13.4% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 11.3
10-8 13.1% 12.0% 12.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 11.5
9-9 11.8% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.1 1.1 10.7
8-10 9.4% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.6 8.8
7-11 6.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.3
6-12 4.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.7 8.6 84.4 0.0%