American
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#236
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#193
Pace60.7#345
Improvement-1.0#295

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#212
First Shot+0.5#161
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#296
Layup/Dunks+3.6#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#198
Freethrows-0.8#247
Improvement-0.3#249

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#255
First Shot-1.7#238
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#273
Layups/Dunks-2.9#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#53
Freethrows-1.4#282
Improvement-0.7#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.6% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 96.4% 80.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.1% 0.8% 1.2%
First Round5.3% 7.2% 4.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 37.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 33 - 4
Quad 415 - 718 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 316   @ Marist L 69-73 57%     0 - 1 -9.5 -1.8 -7.9
  Nov 13, 2022 122   @ George Mason L 56-73 19%     0 - 2 -11.6 -7.2 -6.3
  Nov 16, 2022 305   William & Mary W 71-64 74%     1 - 2 -3.6 +0.0 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2022 320   @ NJIT W 58-53 59%     2 - 2 -1.3 -10.0 +9.3
  Nov 23, 2022 186   @ Georgetown W 74-70 29%     3 - 2 +5.8 +0.6 +5.2
  Nov 26, 2022 325   @ St. Francis (PA) W 66-55 61%     4 - 2 +4.5 -5.0 +10.6
  Nov 29, 2022 336   Albany W 88-62 82%     5 - 2 +12.6 +23.4 -6.2
  Dec 06, 2022 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 69-61 51%     6 - 2 +3.9 -0.5 +4.7
  Dec 10, 2022 191   @ George Washington W 69-64 30%     7 - 2 +6.6 -0.2 +7.2
  Dec 13, 2022 335   VMI W 69-61 81%     8 - 2 -5.2 +1.0 -4.6
  Dec 22, 2022 151   Siena L 61-64 43%     8 - 3 -4.9 +1.5 -7.0
  Dec 30, 2022 261   @ Lafayette W 60-47 45%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +10.4 -6.0 +17.4
  Jan 02, 2023 333   Loyola Maryland W 71-55 81%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +3.0 +3.5 +1.8
  Jan 05, 2023 326   @ Holy Cross W 73-68 OT 61%     11 - 3 3 - 0 -1.6 -4.8 +2.9
  Jan 08, 2023 276   Boston University W 76-74 68%     12 - 3 4 - 0 -6.6 +3.1 -9.6
  Jan 11, 2023 237   @ Army L 60-72 40%     12 - 4 4 - 1 -13.1 -8.2 -6.3
  Jan 14, 2023 258   @ Lehigh L 62-78 44%     12 - 5 4 - 2 -18.4 -8.4 -10.6
  Jan 18, 2023 261   Lafayette L 59-70 66%     12 - 6 4 - 3 -19.1 -1.5 -20.0
  Jan 21, 2023 118   @ Colgate L 61-62 19%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +4.4 -0.6 +4.9
  Jan 25, 2023 237   Army W 63-61 61%     13 - 7 5 - 4 -4.6 -8.1 +3.7
  Jan 28, 2023 212   @ Navy W 73-69 33%     14 - 7 6 - 4 +4.6 +6.2 -1.3
  Feb 01, 2023 295   Bucknell L 71-78 72%     14 - 8 6 - 5 -16.9 -0.7 -16.8
  Feb 04, 2023 118   Colgate L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 08, 2023 276   @ Boston University L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 326   Holy Cross W 69-61 79%    
  Feb 13, 2023 295   @ Bucknell W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 258   Lehigh W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 22, 2023 212   Navy W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 25, 2023 333   @ Loyola Maryland W 65-61 62%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 9.6 8.6 2.2 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 10.4 10.6 2.0 0.0 24.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 8.8 13.1 2.9 0.1 25.4 4th
5th 0.1 4.0 10.1 2.3 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.9 4.9 2.1 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 2.9 10.4 22.3 28.0 23.1 10.7 2.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 4.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
12-6 10.7% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 9.7
11-7 23.1% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 21.5
10-8 28.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 26.5
9-9 22.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 21.5
8-10 10.4% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.1
7-11 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.9 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 13.8% 14.6 0.4 5.5 7.3 0.6
Lose Out 0.3% 0.7% 16.0 0.7