American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.0 251
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 249
Pace 67.7 210
Improvement -2.4 279

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 253 C D- C D+ B-
Defense C- 231 D+ C B- D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 C- 56% 213 -1.4 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 315 C- 37% 223 -2.7 308
Three Pointers 49% 36 C 34% 184 +3.9 54
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 82 C- -0.9 203
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 181
Second Chance D 25.2% 322 D- 0.90 334 D- 0.23 344
Turnovers C 16.9% 184
Freethrows D 0.26 308 B 76% 62 D+ 0.20 258
Total Offense D+ -3.2 253

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 319 D+ 12.4% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 354 C 4.9% 176
Three Pointers C 83% 214 D 1.4% 307
Total C- 52% 258 C- 6.0% 227

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 90 D+ 61% 272 +3.6 297
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 149 D+ 41% 286 +0.9 264
Three Pointers 36% 306 D+ 36% 254 -1.4 119
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 203 D+ +2.8 292
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 281
Second Chance C- 32.1% 249 C+ 1.00 141 C 0.32 210
Turnovers B- 18.4% 81
Freethrows F+ 0.38 346 C 72% 157 D- 0.27 339
Total Defense C- -1.8 231

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 256 F+ 4.0% 362
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 18 D 2.6% 306
Three Pointers D+ 87% 271 D+ 0.4% 282
Total C 55% 163 F+ 2.4% 357

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 255 16.6 61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 166 0.18 213
Improvement -1.4 #261 -1.0 #248

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 274 248 216
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 14% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 77% 92% 55%
.500 or above in Conference 95% 100% 88%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 4% 7%
First Round10% 12% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Away) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 415 - 716 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 61 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 6% -9  2% 0 - 1 C- -2 C- -2 C B- F+ C+ +1 B+ F+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 172 Penn W 84 - 78 45% +3  76% 1 - 1 C+ +2 C -0 B D C- C+ +2 C- B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 80 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  0% 1 - 2 F -30 F -11 C F F+ F -16 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 109 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 14% -1  44% 1 - 3 C- -2 C- -2 D- D- A+ C -0 C+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 346 Maine W 74 - 61 84% +12  98% 2 - 3 C- -3 C- -1 B- F A+ C -1 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 192 Siena L 55 - 59 50% -1  24% 2 - 4 D -9 F -23 F D- F A+ +14 B+ A A+
 Sun, Nov 30 270 Longwood W 92 - 66 66% +8  73% 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +11 B B- B- B+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 222 Drexel W 75 - 73 56% -1  42% 4 - 4 C- -4 C+ +2 B+ F A+ D- -7 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 85% +10  71% 5 - 4 C+ +2 B +6 A- F+ C+ C- -2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 5% -12  2% 5 - 5 D+ -8 A +13 B+ D+ A F -20 F+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 22 22 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -22  0% 5 - 6 F -24 F+ -9 D C B- F -20 F F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 317 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 77% +10  86% 6 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +2 B- +5 A F C+ C- -2 F+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 256 @Boston University W 64 - 62 40% +5  77% 7 - 6 2 - 0 C -0 D -5 C F D+ B +5 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 237 @Colgate L 62 - 64 36% +5  84% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 D+ -4 A F F+ C +0 B- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 326 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 80% -3  44% 7 - 8 2 - 2 F -25 F -11 F C- C- F -14 F D+ D
 Mon, Jan 12 155 Navy W 65 - 51 42% +11  98% 8 - 8 3 - 2 B +11 C- -1 C- F A+ A+ +14 A+ A A-
 Sun, Jan 18 336 @Army W 78 - 67 64% +7  93% 9 - 8 4 - 2 C+ +2 B +6 C+ A+ F C- -2 D- C+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 237 Colgate W 70 - 66 59% +1  53% 10 - 8 5 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 C- A+ F B +4 B- B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 326 @Holy Cross W 76 - 67 60% +8  96% 11 - 8 6 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 C D- B+ C -1 F B A
 Wed, Jan 28 317 @Loyola Maryland L 68 - 77 56% -8  8% 11 - 9 6 - 3 F+ -16 F -15 D F D C+ +0 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 322 Lafayette L 65 - 67 79% +1  62% 11 - 10 6 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -9 F+ C- D- D -6 F B+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 330 Bucknell L 59 - 60 81% +2  63% 11 - 11 6 - 5 F+ -15 F -11 F+ D- D+ D+ -4 D+ F+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 155 @Navy L 73 - 82 22% -3  14% 11 - 12 6 - 6 D+ -6 B+ +8 B+ D+ D+ F -15 F C- F
 Wed, Feb 11 305 @Lehigh L 82 - 90 52% -11  5% 11 - 13 6 - 7 D- -14 C +0 D+ C+ A- F -13 F C- B-
 Sat, Feb 14 336 Army W 75 - 63 82% +6  73% 12 - 13 7 - 7 C- -3 D+ -4 A F D B- +2 C F+ A
 Wed, Feb 18 330 @Bucknell W 75 - 57 62% +6  80% 13 - 13 8 - 7 B +10 C+ +3 D- D- A+ A- +8 C- C- B+
 Sun, Feb 22 322 @Lafayette W 72 - 70 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 305 Lehigh W 75 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 Boston University W 74 - 71 63%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 -5 D+ -3 A+ C- B- C- -2 C B D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C- C C- 37% 25% 49% B- C D D- D- C D B D+ C- D+ D+ D+ D+ 42% 21% 36% C- D+ C- C+ C B- F+ C D-
1.04 56% 37% 34% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .23 17% .26 76% .20 1.11 61% 41% 36% +3 0 1.08 32% 1.0 .32 18% .38 72% .19
Nov
3		 Wake Forest C- A D+ F C- 38% 6% 56% A- C D+ A+ B- F+ C A+ A- C+ F A+ A+ A 53% 12% 35% F B+ C- F F+ C D- D+ D-
0.98 68% 33% 25% -4 +2 0.98 26% 1.3 .34 24% .31 89% .28 1.17 70% 14% 20% -4 +2 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 15% .37 79% .29
Nov
9		 Penn C D+ A+ C- B- 41% 9% 50% B+ B D+ D- D C- A+ C A C+ D A+ F C- 31% 27% 42% C+ C- A C B+ A+ F F F
1.09 57% 100% 32% +4 +2 1.13 27% 0.8 .22 17% .36 65% .23 1.01 60% 15% 45% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 23% .54 78% .42
Nov
12		 George Washington F A+ C+ F C 34% 19% 47% C C F C- F F+ F F F F C+ F F F 46% 6% 48% C- F F F F C F D- F
0.88 75% 36% 26% 0 0 1.02 13% 1.0 .13 21% .13 50% .07 1.41 58% 67% 52% +15 +2 1.37 45% 1.4 .62 17% .53 79% .41
Nov
18		 Rutgers C- F F B F+ 39% 15% 46% B D- D- C- D- A+ D+ B C- C D+ A+ C B- 44% 29% 27% D- C+ B F F C+ F F+ F
1.01 39% 22% 37% -8 +1 0.88 25% 0.9 .23 11% .22 79% .18 1.14 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.8 .53 16% .50 80% .40
Nov
28		 Maine C- C+ C B+ B 33% 17% 50% C B- F F F A+ A D B+ C F F C+ F 41% 26% 33% C+ F D- A+ C+ A+ F A+ F
1.11 63% 38% 38% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.8 .16 12% .41 67% .27 0.92 69% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 24% 0.7 .17 27% .60 52% .31
Nov
29		 Siena F C- F F F 39% 32% 29% D F F+ D+ D- F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ 37% 39% 24% A- B+ F+ A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.79 56% 23% 17% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.9 .21 27% .41 76% .31 0.85 43% 53% 22% -4 -3 0.89 35% 0.5 .18 29% .70 60% .42
Nov
30		 Longwood A- B+ D A- B 33% 12% 55% C B D A+ B- B- A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 19% 36% D- A+ B- A+ A+ F F D F
1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45 0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52
Dec
3		 Drexel C+ D A A B 37% 16% 47% B- B+ D F F A+ A+ F A- D- F B+ F F 54% 19% 27% F+ F B- A+ A+ D- C A- C+
1.12 50% 50% 39% +3 0 1.08 26% 0.4 .10 9% .44 67% .30 1.09 68% 30% 43% +7 +1 1.19 26% 0.3 .09 16% .27 60% .16
Dec
6		 Maryland Eastern Shore B F A+ A+ B+ 47% 4% 49% A A- B- F F+ C+ F C+ F C- F D F F 45% 35% 20% B F A+ D A+ A+ A B+ A
1.25 44% 50% 50% +6 +3 1.19 35% 0.8 .26 14% .15 75% .11 0.96 83% 43% 50% +18 -1 1.35 11% 1.0 .11 30% .14 67% .09
Dec
18		 Virginia Commonwealth A D F A+ B+ 37% 11% 52% B B+ C- D- D+ A A- A+ A+ F F C- D F 43% 13% 44% C F+ F F F C- A F C
1.18 50% 17% 43% +2 +1 1.07 28% 0.8 .23 13% .36 86% .31 1.49 74% 43% 38% +10 +1 1.24 50% 1.5 .77 14% .30 94% .28
Dec
22		 Virginia F+ B+ F F D- 19% 23% 58% C- D C- C C B- F A+ F F F F D F 52% 4% 44% F F F F F D+ D+ A+ B
0.80 60% 25% 23% -12 -2 0.75 24% 0.9 .22 16% .11 83% .09 1.49 72% 100% 38% +13 +3 1.33 52% 1.5 .78 14% .33 56% .18
Dec
31		 Loyola Maryland B- B A+ A+ A 51% 18% 31% B A F A F C+ F F F C- A+ F F F 38% 10% 52% D+ F+ F A+ B A+ F F F
1.25 68% 60% 41% +12 +1 1.29 19% 1.4 .27 13% .15 67% .10 1.03 44% 75% 41% +4 +1 1.12 38% 0.5 .21 28% .44 86% .37
Jan
3		 Boston University D F A+ A C 39% 20% 41% C C F F F D+ D A+ C- B C A+ B- A+ 27% 18% 55% B A+ D+ F F F D C D
1.09 44% 67% 42% +5 0 1.13 14% 0.8 .11 14% .24 83% .20 1.05 58% 0% 33% -7 0 0.86 29% 1.3 .37 14% .33 71% .24
Jan
7		 Colgate D+ D- D+ A+ B+ 57% 6% 36% A+ A F F F F+ F F F C C A D+ B 50% 24% 26% F+ B- F A C- C+ F A+ F
1.04 52% 33% 53% +6 +3 1.21 21% 0.5 .10 19% .12 50% .06 1.08 57% 30% 36% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 17% .47 61% .28
Jan
10		 Holy Cross F A A F F 37% 20% 43% C- F C- D+ C- C- A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 32% 34% 34% B F C+ F D+ D F B- F
1.03 74% 50% 9% -8 0 0.86 28% 1.1 .31 14% .43 88% .38 1.18 73% 69% 25% +11 -2 1.19 20% 1.2 .24 14% .54 73% .39
Jan
12		 Navy C- A- A+ F D 35% 6% 59% A+ C- B+ F F A+ F B- F+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 40% C A+ B+ A+ A A- F B- F
1.04 68% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 37% 0.5 .17 11% .16 78% .13 0.82 47% 33% 19% -14 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .19 22% .50 71% .35
Jan
18		 Army B C B B+ B- 30% 16% 53% C- C+ B A+ A+ F A B- A C- D+ F B D- 51% 8% 41% F+ D- F+ A C+ D+ A F B-
1.24 62% 43% 39% +6 0 1.14 37% 1.7 .63 22% .43 76% .33 1.06 60% 50% 30% 0 +3 1.06 35% 0.8 .26 16% .17 89% .15
Jan
21		 Colgate D- C+ F C+ D+ 45% 16% 39% B C- A- A+ A+ F D+ A+ B- B D- C B C 30% 36% 34% A B- B- A B+ B+ F A- F
1.04 60% 14% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 1.3 .48 28% .29 86% .25 0.98 64% 41% 31% +2 -3 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 19% .42 65% .28
Jan
24		 Holy Cross C+ B- C+ D- C- 49% 13% 38% B+ C D+ F+ D- B+ D- A+ D+ C B C- F F 35% 26% 39% C- F D+ A+ B A C F D
1.18 65% 43% 30% +2 +2 1.09 26% 1.0 .26 11% .21 83% .17 1.04 50% 42% 50% +8 -1 1.15 23% 0.6 .13 22% .28 86% .24
Jan
28		 Loyola Maryland F F F A F+ 43% 13% 45% B+ D F F F D D C+ D+ C+ A+ F A A- 39% 22% 39% B+ A- C+ F F D+ F F F
0.92 46% 29% 40% -2 +1 1.00 6% 0.0 .00 16% .26 75% .19 1.04 42% 45% 26% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.4 .37 16% .47 83% .39
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lafayette F+ A+ F F F+ 33% 23% 44% C- F+ B- F+ C- D- C C C D D+ F D+ F 38% 13% 49% C- F F A+ B+ C F A+ C-
1.02 75% 27% 24% -3 -1 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 17% .29 73% .21 1.05 61% 50% 35% +3 +1 1.11 35% 0.4 .15 17% .36 58% .21
Feb
4		 Bucknell F F C D+ F 23% 11% 66% C+ F+ B F D- D+ F F F D+ A- F+ C- D+ 38% 18% 45% C D+ B F F+ A- F F F
1.00 45% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 39% 0.7 .27 19% .23 64% .15 1.01 47% 43% 33% -4 0 0.95 22% 1.7 .37 24% .38 88% .33
Feb
7		 Navy B+ A B+ B- B+ 21% 17% 62% C+ B+ B- F D+ D+ D F F+ F D+ F F F 45% 25% 30% C- F C D C- F F B+ F
1.13 73% 44% 34% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 19% .21 64% .13 1.27 60% 55% 46% +10 0 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 14% .52 69% .36
Feb
11		 Lehigh C D F C+ D- 42% 10% 47% A- D+ D- A+ C+ A- C B- C+ F D F F F 34% 23% 43% C- F B F C- B- F B- F
1.11 52% 17% 36% -3 +2 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 12% .32 76% .25 1.21 63% 64% 55% +21 -1 1.43 18% 1.3 .23 20% .44 69% .30
Feb
14		 Army D+ A A+ B- A 39% 20% 41% C A F F F D B- B- B B- A A+ F C+ 41% 9% 50% D+ C D D- F+ A F B F+
1.14 72% 67% 37% +13 0 1.28 20% 0.4 .08 17% .38 76% .29 0.96 42% 0% 39% -6 +2 0.93 33% 1.1 .36 23% .35 67% .24
Feb
18		 Bucknell C+ D- F B F+ 38% 16% 47% B D- F B- D- A+ A+ A- A+ A- C F A+ D+ 37% 26% 37% B+ C- D B- C- B+ C B+ C+
1.16 53% 14% 38% -3 +1 0.98 24% 1.1 .26 11% .54 81% .43 0.88 56% 73% 13% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.0 .30 23% .28 71% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.2 8.1 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 32.2 20.4 53.0 3rd
4th 13.5 10.0 23.5 4th
5th 3.3 9.3 12.5 5th
6th 1.4 0.2 1.6 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.8 23.4 43.3 28.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 28.5% 17.5% 17.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.4 23.5
10-8 43.3% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.4 4.7 38.3
9-9 23.4% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.1 2.3 21.1
8-10 4.8% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.3 4.5
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 15.7 87.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 15.4 0.1 4.0 48.4 47.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.0%
Lose Out 2.0%