American
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.3#329
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#301
Pace68.7#194
Improvement-5.3#357

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#298
First Shot-3.3#273
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#284
Layup/Dunks+1.2#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#291
Freethrows-3.6#345
Improvement-1.1#276

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#337
First Shot-7.7#349
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#106
Layups/Dunks-5.1#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#212
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement-4.2#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.0% 2.2% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.1% 14.4% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.9% 22.9% 30.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 48 - 139 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 241   Marist W 77-73 OT 35%     1 - 0 -3.3 -7.0 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2021 331   @ William & Mary W 74-62 39%     2 - 0 +3.5 -6.8 +9.5
  Nov 16, 2021 147   @ Georgetown L 57-79 8%     2 - 1 -17.5 -18.6 +2.5
  Nov 19, 2021 218   @ Longwood L 42-82 13%     2 - 2 -39.3 -25.3 -18.8
  Nov 20, 2021 296   Western Carolina L 79-80 36%     2 - 3 -8.6 +2.1 -10.7
  Nov 23, 2021 201   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 67-98 12%     2 - 4 -29.5 -4.0 -26.3
  Nov 28, 2021 212   @ Duquesne L 79-88 13%     2 - 5 -7.9 +5.2 -12.9
  Dec 01, 2021 233   @ Stony Brook L 57-80 16%     2 - 6 -23.7 -14.5 -9.9
  Dec 04, 2021 274   @ Howard L 56-90 22%     2 - 7 -37.1 -23.0 -12.7
  Dec 08, 2021 231   St. Francis (PA) L 71-76 32%    
  Dec 11, 2021 293   @ Mount St. Mary's L 61-68 26%    
  Dec 21, 2021 139   @ George Mason L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 28, 2021 279   Siena L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 01, 2022 316   Lehigh W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 04, 2022 294   Lafayette L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 07, 2022 116   @ Colgate L 67-85 5%    
  Jan 10, 2022 156   Boston University L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 346   @ Holy Cross L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 16, 2022 309   Bucknell W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 19, 2022 265   @ Army L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 22, 2022 277   @ Loyola Maryland L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 26, 2022 346   Holy Cross W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 108   @ Navy L 58-76 5%    
  Feb 02, 2022 294   @ Lafayette L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 116   Colgate L 70-82 15%    
  Feb 09, 2022 309   @ Bucknell L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 156   @ Boston University L 60-75 9%    
  Feb 16, 2022 108   Navy L 61-73 13%    
  Feb 19, 2022 265   Army L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 23, 2022 316   @ Lehigh L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 277   Loyola Maryland L 67-69 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.9 3.9 1.1 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 6.5 5.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.9 6.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 18.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.9 8.7 5.7 1.2 0.1 21.7 9th
10th 0.6 2.7 5.3 5.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 17.9 10th
Total 0.6 2.7 6.4 11.1 14.7 16.3 15.3 12.7 9.1 5.7 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 22.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 10.7% 10.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-9 5.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.6
8-10 9.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 15.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.3
5-13 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.3
4-14 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.7
3-15 11.1% 11.1
2-16 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%