Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.4 256
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 289
Pace 60.4 356
Improvement +3.7 54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 129 B D+ D+ C- C+
Defense D- 348 D- C- F C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 283 C 58% 175 -1.9 254
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 303 B- 41% 81 -1.2 248
Three Pointers 49% 37 A- 39% 15 +7.7 13
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 148 B +4.1 54
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 57
Second Chance D+ 26.5% 292 C 1.02 192 D+ 0.27 271
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 283
Freethrows C- 0.29 241 C- 71% 223 C- 0.20 241
Total Offense C+ +1.5 129

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 149 D 13.3% 310
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 57 D 7.9% 329
Three Pointers D+ 81% 264 D+ 1.3% 288
Total B- 60% 81 D+ 6.6% 285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 145 C 57% 157 +0.4 197
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 F 46% 355 +1.6 309
Three Pointers 40% 221 F 40% 363 +3.0 312
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 194 D- +4.8 340
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 331
Second Chance C 30.3% 170 D+ 1.08 264 C- 0.33 226
Turnovers F 12.2% 361
Freethrows C+ 0.28 121 C- 73% 220 C+ 0.21 127
Total Defense D- -6.9 348

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 55 C 10.9% 181
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 31 F+ 0.9% 357
Three Pointers B- 81% 103 C 0.8% 171
Total B 50% 70 C- 4.8% 239

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.3 345 17.3 191
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 355 0.15 115
Improvement +0.9 #136 +2.8 #53

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 281 256 225
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 13% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 16% 28% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 93% 100% 85%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 8% 9%
First Round7% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 413 - 915 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 289 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 46% -2  31% 1 - 0 C- -3 F+ -8 D- D+ F+ B +5 A- C+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 67 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 7% -18  0% 1 - 1 D- -13 F -10 C+ F F D -6 F+ B+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 268 Brown W 90 - 77 64% +14  99% 2 - 1 C+ +4 A+ +23 A+ A+ D F -18 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 162 Merrimack L 79 - 91 41% -10  1% 2 - 2 F+ -15 A- +11 A+ C A- F -27 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 197 @Columbia L 49 - 54 27% -12  0% 2 - 3 C- -4 F -18 F F+ A A+ +13 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 164 Harvard W 75 - 74 31% -2  16% 3 - 3 C +1 B +7 A+ C- F D- -6 F D D+
 Tue, Nov 25 115 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 14% -12  3% 3 - 4 C- -3 A+ +21 A+ B- A F -25 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 195 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 27% +2  73% 3 - 5 D+ -8 C- -2 B+ D+ F D- -7 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 344 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 66% +6  61% 3 - 6 F+ -16 D+ -3 D B+ D F -12 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 10 346 Maine L 59 - 69 83% -7  0% 3 - 7 F -26 F -12 F B F F -14 F A B-
 Sat, Dec 13 255 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 38% -9  4% 3 - 8 F+ -15 D- -8 D- D+ D F+ -8 F+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 310 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 73% +9  97% 4 - 8 C +0 A +13 A+ A+ F+ F -12 F D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 155 @Navy L 77 - 82 21% -5  7% 4 - 9 0 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 B+ F+ A+ F -11 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 251 American L 62 - 64 60% -5  19% 4 - 10 0 - 2 D -10 D -5 F B- A D -5 D- A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 322 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 57% +10  97% 5 - 10 1 - 2 B +9 A- +11 A D+ C+ C -1 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 10 336 Army W 100 - 91 81% +8  88% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 A+ +19 A+ D+ D+ F -24 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 305 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 72% -6  6% 6 - 11 2 - 3 D- -14 C+ +2 A- F B- F -16 D C F
 Sat, Jan 17 317 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 55% -1  50% 6 - 12 2 - 4 F -24 F -23 F F F C -0 B F F
 Wed, Jan 21 322 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 77% -2  27% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -9 D -5 B- F+ F D+ -4 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 237 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 34% +3  80% 7 - 13 3 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 A- F D- C -1 D F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 155 Navy L 50 - 58 41% +2  64% 7 - 14 3 - 6 D -11 F -12 D C- F C -1 F+ A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 330 @Bucknell L 97 - 103 2OT 61% -3  22% 7 - 15 3 - 7 D- -14 A- +11 D+ B- A+ F -24 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 326 @Holy Cross W 72 - 64 59% +3  85% 8 - 15 4 - 7 C +0 B +7 A F B- D -5 C+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 317 Loyola Maryland W 78 - 69 76% +6  85% 9 - 15 5 - 7 C- -4 D+ -4 B C- F C+ +1 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 336 @Army W 85 - 68 62% +10  92% 10 - 15 6 - 7 B +8 A+ +15 A+ F C D+ -4 B F F
 Sat, Feb 14 330 Bucknell W 82 - 69 80% +10  93% 11 - 15 7 - 7 C -1 B +7 A- C- D- D- -7 F B+ F
 Mon, Feb 16 237 Colgate W 85 - 58 57% +14  99% 12 - 15 8 - 7 A +20 A+ +24 A A+ B+ C+ +2 A+ F+ F
 Sun, Feb 22 305 @Lehigh W 72 - 71 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 326 Holy Cross W 76 - 68 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 251 @American L 71 - 74 37%
Totals 14 - 16 10 - 8 -5 C+ +2 A B C+ D- -7 A- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C B- A- B 35% 27% 49% C+ B D+ C D+ D+ C- C- C- D- C F F D- 40% 20% 40% C D- C D+ C- F C+ C- C+
1.11 58% 41% 39% +4 0 1.11 26% 1.0 .27 18% .29 71% .20 1.18 57% 46% 40% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.1 .33 12% .28 73% .21
Nov
3		 Northeastern F+ B+ A+ F D- 38% 14% 48% C D- C- D+ D+ F+ C D+ C- B B+ C A+ A 54% 15% 31% D- A- D+ B+ C+ C F C- F
1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24 1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29
Nov
7		 Northwestern F D F A+ B- 30% 30% 40% D- C+ B F F F F C F D F F+ C- F 35% 33% 33% A F+ D A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.86 50% 14% 47% -1 -2 0.96 38% 0.1 .05 23% .15 71% .11 1.26 78% 47% 35% +10 -2 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 8% .24 54% .13
Nov
12		 Brown A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% B- A+ A A+ A+ D B A+ A+ F F A+ C- F 31% 19% 50% B D- C- F F F F F F
1.41 75% 33% 48% +16 +1 1.36 41% 1.8 .73 20% .37 89% .33 1.20 73% 22% 33% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.6 .45 14% .42 83% .35
Nov
15		 Merrimack A- A B A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F A+ C A- C F D+ F D+ A+ F F 33% 13% 53% B- F F C F C+ B F C+
1.23 67% 44% 42% +10 -1 1.20 25% 1.6 .41 16% .35 63% .22 1.41 60% 17% 67% +24 +1 1.51 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 88% .26
Nov
18		 Columbia F F+ F F F 59% 8% 33% A+ F D F F+ A C- D D+ A+ A F B- A 51% 7% 42% F B+ A A+ A+ C+ A F B+
0.82 47% 0% 12% -21 +3 0.67 25% 0.7 .18 8% .29 69% .20 0.91 45% 67% 33% -5 +3 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 22% .19 78% .15
Nov
22		 Harvard B A A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% C A+ F A+ C- F F F F D- F B D F 40% 18% 42% C F A+ F D D+ A B A
1.17 71% 71% 52% +23 +1 1.49 18% 1.7 .29 23% .16 50% .08 1.16 80% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 17% 1.8 .30 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
25		 Penn St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 13% 65% C- A+ D+ A+ B- A C+ F+ C F C- F F F 48% 16% 36% D F D F+ F F F B+ F
1.37 82% 67% 45% +20 0 1.42 25% 1.7 .42 14% .24 69% .16 1.51 62% 71% 44% +12 +1 1.30 33% 1.4 .47 5% .66 70% .46
Nov
29		 Northern Kentucky C- A+ D+ B A- 37% 29% 34% D- B+ D C+ D+ F A- B A D- B A+ A A+ 29% 20% 51% A- A+ F F F C+ F F F
1.04 79% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.18 29% 1.2 .33 26% .41 74% .30 1.19 54% 22% 26% -10 -1 0.80 50% 1.4 .69 18% .47 83% .39
Dec
6		 New Hampshire D+ F F A+ D- 44% 13% 44% B D D- A+ B+ D A F C- F D+ F D+ F 60% 5% 35% F F F A- C- F F A+ D-
1.07 38% 29% 42% -5 +1 0.95 23% 1.7 .40 17% .42 56% .24 1.15 59% 67% 35% +3 +3 1.14 33% 0.8 .25 13% .43 52% .22
Dec
10		 Maine F F A+ F F 27% 4% 69% B F B+ C- B F C+ F C- F D+ F F F 43% 29% 29% B- F D- A+ A B- C+ F D-
0.95 42% 50% 23% -16 +1 0.73 44% 1.0 .44 24% .34 63% .21 1.11 61% 50% 58% +15 -1 1.31 24% 0.4 .10 22% .31 80% .25
Dec
13		 Dartmouth D- F+ D D F+ 35% 12% 53% C+ D- B+ F D+ D B- F C- F+ C A- F F+ 29% 15% 56% C F+ C- A+ B+ F F C F
0.97 50% 33% 30% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.7 .23 15% .31 59% .18 1.17 57% 29% 44% +7 0 1.17 26% 0.8 .19 14% .46 73% .34
Dec
21		 Umass Lowell A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 20% 33% C A+ C- A+ A+ F+ A D A- F D+ F D- F 47% 19% 34% D+ F C+ F D D- F A+ C-
1.35 76% 67% 47% +21 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26 1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20
Dec
31		 Navy B+ C A+ C- A 27% 34% 39% D- B+ F A+ F+ A+ D- A D+ F D D F F 30% 20% 50% C+ F C A+ B+ F F C F
1.14 60% 58% 32% +6 -3 1.09 13% 1.5 .19 12% .20 83% .17 1.22 62% 44% 45% +11 -1 1.23 29% 0.8 .24 13% .51 73% .38
Jan
3		 American D C- F C- F 27% 18% 55% D+ F D+ A+ B- A D C- D D A F F F+ 39% 20% 41% B- D- A+ A- A D- B- F C
1.05 58% 0% 33% -7 0 0.86 29% 1.3 .37 14% .33 71% .24 1.09 44% 67% 42% +5 0 1.13 14% 0.8 .11 14% .24 83% .20
Jan
7		 Lafayette A- D A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% D+ A C- D D+ C+ D+ C C- C D F A+ C- 52% 16% 32% D C- A A- A F B- A+ A
1.26 55% 53% 53% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19 1.02 62% 56% 17% -3 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13
Jan
10		 Army A+ B A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A- A+ F A+ D+ D+ C+ A B F B F F F 31% 16% 53% B F C- F F+ F C+ F D
1.46 67% 50% 65% +27 +2 1.60 22% 1.5 .33 16% .36 81% .30 1.33 50% 44% 45% +7 0 1.17 31% 1.2 .36 10% .24 87% .21
Jan
14		 Lehigh C+ C A+ A- B+ 58% 16% 26% A A- F F F B- A A- A+ F A- F F D- 35% 27% 38% C+ D A+ F C F D- F F
1.18 58% 67% 40% +7 +2 1.19 18% 0.7 .12 14% .39 81% .32 1.21 48% 50% 43% +5 -1 1.10 9% 2.3 .21 8% .32 87% .28
Jan
17		 Loyola Maryland F F F F F 33% 14% 53% C+ F F F F F C+ A+ A- C B- D- A+ B 42% 13% 45% C- B C+ F F F F+ A D+
0.81 44% 29% 23% -15 0 0.73 22% 0.8 .17 23% .31 88% .28 1.05 55% 43% 25% -7 +1 0.91 26% 1.9 .49 11% .34 62% .21
Jan
21		 Lafayette D C+ A+ C+ C+ 44% 8% 48% A B- F C+ F+ F C- F D D+ C A C C- 44% 13% 44% D+ C- C A+ A F A+ F A+
1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17 1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11
Jan
24		 Colgate C- A- A+ F A- 46% 15% 40% B A- F F F D- A+ B- A+ C A D+ F D- 41% 30% 30% C D F C F+ B+ B+ A+ A
1.09 68% 86% 26% +7 +1 1.19 18% 0.6 .11 18% .45 74% .33 1.10 45% 44% 56% +6 -1 1.13 36% 1.0 .36 19% .20 58% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Navy F F C+ D F+ 44% 13% 44% A D B+ F C- F D F D- C C+ F C F 44% 22% 33% D+ F+ B- A+ A C+ A+ F A+
0.89 47% 40% 29% -8 +1 0.90 36% 0.8 .27 25% .21 67% .14 1.03 55% 70% 33% +5 0 1.13 27% 0.7 .19 20% .04 100% .04
Jan
31		 Bucknell A- B- F C- D 37% 17% 46% B- D+ D+ A+ B- A+ A A A+ F A F F F 39% 24% 37% B F D+ F F F F F F
1.26 64% 30% 33% 0 0 1.03 30% 1.3 .40 9% .42 83% .34 1.34 43% 62% 55% +11 0 1.24 28% 1.3 .38 10% .48 85% .41
Feb
2		 Holy Cross B A+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 36% 36% F A F F+ F B- A+ F B D A+ D- F B- 38% 29% 33% C- C+ D F F F A+ C A+
1.24 75% 33% 60% +17 -3 1.31 18% 1.0 .18 12% .43 55% .23 1.10 35% 47% 41% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .31 5% .15 75% .11
Feb
7		 Loyola Maryland D+ F A+ A+ B 30% 9% 62% B B B F C- F B+ B A- C+ F A A+ D- 37% 7% 56% D D- A+ A+ A+ F A- A+ A
1.12 50% 75% 41% +8 +1 1.19 37% 1.0 .37 26% .35 78% .27 0.99 86% 25% 25% +2 +2 1.09 12% 0.0 .00 11% .19 58% .11
Feb
11		 Army A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 19% 40% C A+ F F F C A+ C- A+ D+ A+ F B B+ 27% 6% 67% C B B- F F F D D D
1.36 82% 75% 47% +25 0 1.52 15% 0.7 .10 14% .49 73% .36 1.09 23% 100% 30% -9 +1 0.86 27% 1.5 .41 11% .29 75% .22
Feb
14		 Bucknell B C- F A+ A 28% 16% 56% C A- A+ F C- D- A+ A+ A+ D- C+ F D+ F 45% 11% 43% F+ F A D B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.26 58% 29% 50% +12 0 1.26 48% 0.7 .33 20% .44 91% .40 1.06 54% 50% 35% 0 +2 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 12% .17 60% .10
Feb
16		 Colgate A+ F+ F A+ A 33% 14% 53% C+ A A- A+ A+ B+ F F F C+ A+ B F A+ 34% 30% 36% B- A+ D F F+ F A- F C+
1.48 50% 14% 54% +10 0 1.22 39% 1.8 .71 12% .16 63% .10 1.01 19% 36% 41% -10 -1 0.79 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 90% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 1.0 4.6 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 27.3 11.0 38.7 3rd
4th 15.8 13.7 29.5 4th
5th 5.4 18.3 23.7 5th
6th 1.9 0.6 2.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 7.4 35.2 41.9 15.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 15.5% 15.9% 15.9% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.9 13.0
10-8 41.9% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 5.0 36.9
9-9 35.2% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4 31.8
8-10 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.5 6.8
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 15.9 88.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 15.7 0.8 24.4 74.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.9%
Lose Out 3.3%