Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#130
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#138
Pace63.8#306
Improvement+1.7#47

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#112
First Shot+3.4#81
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#264
Layup/Dunks+3.4#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#66
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement+3.0#7

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#152
First Shot+0.3#167
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#158
Layups/Dunks-5.5#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#13
Freethrows+0.5#164
Improvement-1.3#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 22.1% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 97.1% 98.2% 92.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 97.3% 94.4%
Conference Champion 25.7% 27.2% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round21.0% 21.9% 17.3%
Second Round2.2% 2.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 418 - 322 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 72   @ Rhode Island L 62-71 24%     0 - 1 +0.9 -7.3 +8.5
  Nov 16, 2021 149   @ Northeastern L 48-49 43%     0 - 2 +3.4 -11.6 +14.9
  Nov 18, 2021 258   @ Hartford W 75-70 68%     1 - 2 +2.7 +5.7 -2.6
  Nov 21, 2021 312   Northern Illinois W 76-58 85%     2 - 2 +9.6 +11.6 +0.5
  Nov 22, 2021 216   Sam Houston St. W 72-59 68%     3 - 2 +10.5 +3.5 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2021 24   @ Florida St. L 80-81 OT 10%     3 - 3 +15.5 +11.9 +3.6
  Nov 28, 2021 238   Merrimack W 65-56 80%    
  Dec 01, 2021 264   @ George Washington W 69-64 68%    
  Dec 04, 2021 319   Binghamton W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 08, 2021 208   Umass Lowell W 73-65 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 242   @ Dartmouth W 69-65 63%    
  Dec 18, 2021 248   Marist W 70-60 82%    
  Jan 01, 2022 298   Bucknell W 80-67 89%    
  Jan 04, 2022 105   @ Navy L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 07, 2022 302   Loyola Maryland W 72-59 88%    
  Jan 10, 2022 320   @ American W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 13, 2022 219   @ Army W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 16, 2022 105   Navy W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 19, 2022 302   @ Loyola Maryland W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 22, 2022 295   Lehigh W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 26, 2022 304   @ Lafayette W 73-66 76%    
  Jan 29, 2022 99   Colgate W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 31, 2022 343   Holy Cross W 78-60 95%    
  Feb 05, 2022 295   @ Lehigh W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 09, 2022 219   Army W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 320   American W 75-60 90%    
  Feb 16, 2022 343   @ Holy Cross W 75-63 87%    
  Feb 19, 2022 99   @ Colgate L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 23, 2022 304   Lafayette W 76-63 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 298   @ Bucknell W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.6 8.1 8.0 3.8 1.1 25.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9 6.2 1.2 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.0 8.5 7.7 3.0 0.3 26.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.1 6.7 10.4 14.0 16.5 16.5 14.5 9.3 3.8 1.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.5 0.3
16-2 86.6% 8.0    6.0 2.0 0.1
15-3 55.7% 8.1    4.1 3.5 0.5
14-4 21.7% 3.6    1.2 1.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.7% 25.7 15.9 8.1 1.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 59.6% 56.9% 2.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 6.4%
17-1 3.8% 43.9% 43.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.1
16-2 9.3% 40.8% 40.8% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.5
15-3 14.5% 30.9% 30.9% 13.9 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.1 10.0
14-4 16.5% 22.9% 22.9% 14.2 0.0 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.1 12.7
13-5 16.5% 18.3% 18.3% 14.6 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.3 13.5
12-6 14.0% 13.8% 13.8% 15.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 12.1
11-7 10.4% 10.6% 10.6% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 9.3
10-8 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.2
9-9 4.1% 6.9% 6.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.8
8-10 1.9% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.9
7-11 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.9 6.9 6.0 1.9 78.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.3 4.8 4.8 9.5 4.8 4.8 9.5 52.4 9.5