Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#257
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#253
Pace86.0#3
Improvement-0.5#209

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#232
First Shot-1.6#215
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#237
Layup/Dunks-5.0#332
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#30
Freethrows+1.4#103
Improvement+1.7#70

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#274
First Shot-3.5#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#146
Layups/Dunks-1.5#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#257
Freethrows-1.4#283
Improvement-2.2#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 2.3% 6.2% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 22.1% 40.3% 17.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 5.8% 16.3%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.5% 1.3% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 45 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 38 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -14.5 -12.0 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 8 112 @Seattle W 73-71 14%     1 - 1 +8.5 +0.1 +8.2
  Wed, Nov 12 91 @Colorado St. L 79-93 9%     1 - 2 -4.9 +0.6 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 14 209 @Montana L 82-90 31%     1 - 3 -8.2 -2.9 -4.2
  Thu, Nov 20 111 @Utah W 92-85 13%     2 - 3 +13.6 +5.3 +7.1
  Mon, Nov 24 289 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 44%     2 - 4 -9.7 +3.2 -12.3
  Tue, Nov 25 215 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 43%     2 - 5 -19.5 -10.7 -7.7
  Thu, Dec 4 242 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94-91 36%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +1.3 +3.2 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 272 UC Riverside L 84-88 64%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -13.0 +4.2 -17.1
  Tue, Dec 16 168 Montana St. L 80-83 43%     3 - 7 -6.6 +4.1 -10.6
  Fri, Dec 19 30 @UCLA L 87-108 3%     3 - 8 -3.6 +11.8 -13.1
  Sun, Dec 21 177 Idaho L 80-83 OT 45%     3 - 9 -7.2 -8.4 +1.7
  Thu, Jan 1 83 UC San Diego L 80-89 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 275 @Long Beach St. L 81-83 42%    
  Thu, Jan 8 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-92 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 176 UC Davis L 82-83 45%    
  Thu, Jan 15 109 Hawaii L 76-82 28%    
  Thu, Jan 22 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 77-86 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 242 Cal St. Fullerton W 92-90 58%    
  Thu, Jan 29 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 82-83 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 272 @UC Riverside L 82-84 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 212 Cal St. Northridge W 90-89 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 176 @UC Davis L 79-86 25%    
  Thu, Feb 12 131 UC Irvine L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Feb 14 150 UC Santa Barbara L 80-83 39%    
  Fri, Feb 20 109 @Hawaii L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Feb 26 275 Long Beach St. W 84-80 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 83 @UC San Diego L 77-92 9%    
  Thu, Mar 5 131 @UC Irvine L 74-84 18%    
  Sat, Mar 7 305 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-79 70%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.1 4.5 0.8 0.1 16.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.3 10.5 13.3 15.4 15.2 13.1 9.4 6.4 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 59.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 41.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 27.3% 27.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.7% 7.3% 7.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-7 1.9% 4.6% 4.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-8 3.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
11-9 6.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.3
10-10 9.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.4
9-11 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.0
8-12 15.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.1
7-13 15.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.4
6-14 13.3% 13.3
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 6.3% 6.3
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%