Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.8 231
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 217
Pace 83.0 1
Improvement +4.7 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 188 C C- F+ B- A-
Defense D+ 263 D+ D+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 215 C 58% 180 -0.8 209
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 361 F 25% 365 -6.1 365
Three Pointers 55% 1 C 34% 176 +7.5 14
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 18 C- -0.9 204
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 151
Second Chance C 30.6% 178 D+ 0.97 266 C- 0.30 211
Turnovers F+ 20.8% 352
Freethrows C+ 0.32 148 B+ 78% 16 B- 0.25 94
Total Offense C -0.9 188

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 32% 354 C 10.6% 152
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 0% 365 F+ 8.8% 341
Three Pointers D 78% 298 C 0.9% 182
Total D+ 51% 271 C+ 5.1% 116

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 178 D+ 62% 283 +1.5 232
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 314 C- 39% 236 -1.5 74
Three Pointers 45% 59 C 34% 173 +2.1 284
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 272 C- +1.5 241
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 245
Second Chance C- 32.0% 248 C- 1.07 255 D+ 0.34 265
Turnovers C- 16.2% 220
Freethrows C+ 0.29 141 C- 73% 219 C+ 0.21 151
Total Defense D+ -3.0 263

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 117 D- 6.6% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 47 D+ 3.1% 292
Three Pointers C- 86% 244 D+ 0.3% 305
Total C 55% 169 D- 3.2% 341

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.5 6 17.2 174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 98 0.21 306
Improvement +3.8 #28 +0.8 #136

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 260 232 198
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 69% 89% 28%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 35 - 88 - 12
Quad 45 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 53 @USC L 64 - 94 6% -12  0% 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -14 C- D+ F C+ +2 C A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 126 @Seattle W 73 - 71 19% -4  14% 1 - 1 B- +8 C +1 B+ C F B+ +6 D+ C+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 96 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 13% -9  0% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 B- F+ D D+ -4 D+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 183 @Montana L 82 - 90 30% -7  3% 1 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -2 C- C D C- -3 A- F+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 102 @Utah W 92 - 85 14% +7  90% 2 - 3 A- +15 B- +4 A+ C F A +10 B- A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 311 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 58% -0  35% 2 - 4 D- -12 D -4 C+ F F+ D- -7 F+ F+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 227 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 49% -3  54% 2 - 5 F -20 F -11 F A F D- -8 D+ D+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 205 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 35% +5  85% 3 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +2 A+ F F C+ +1 C- D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 279 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 72% -7  14% 3 - 6 1 - 1 D- -14 C+ +3 B+ F+ D- F -17 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 147 Montana St. L 80 - 83 45% -3  18% 3 - 7 D+ -6 C +2 F A+ C+ D- -7 A- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 39 @UCLA L 87 - 108 4% -7  23% 3 - 8 C- -5 B+ +9 A+ C+ F F -12 F A F+
 Sun, Dec 21 186 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 54% -7  5% 3 - 9 D+ -8 F -10 F F D B- +3 B+ C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 137 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 41% -2  17% 4 - 9 2 - 1 C +0 D+ -3 D B- B B +4 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 264 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 46% -10  1% 4 - 10 2 - 2 D -11 F -11 F C+ B C+ +0 D+ C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 26% +3  73% 4 - 11 2 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 C C C D -6 F D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 179 UC Davis W 84 - 78 52% -6  9% 5 - 11 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 D- C A+ C -1 B+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 117 Hawaii L 66 - 86 36% -8  2% 5 - 12 3 - 4 F -20 F -12 C+ B- F D -6 D- C C
 Thu, Jan 22 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 23% -24  0% 5 - 13 3 - 5 F -36 D- -7 C- D- D- F -31 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 205 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 57% -8  8% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F -21 D -4 C- B+ F F -16 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 104 - 79 66% +15  83% 6 - 14 4 - 6 A- +17 A+ +15 A+ C- F C -1 F F B
 Sat, Jan 31 279 @UC Riverside W 94 - 87 50% +2  67% 7 - 14 5 - 6 C+ +3 A +12 A- C+ C- F+ -9 F+ F A
 Thu, Feb 5 159 Cal St. Northridge L 96 - 97 47% -5  18% 7 - 15 5 - 7 C- -4 B+ +8 A+ C D- F -12 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 179 @UC Davis L 58 - 67 29% +2  72% 7 - 16 5 - 8 D+ -7 F -16 F D- F A +8 A- C+ A-
 Thu, Feb 12 116 UC Irvine W 79 - 73 36% -2  41% 8 - 16 6 - 8 B- +6 C- -1 B A F B+ +6 C A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 144 UC Santa Barbara W 89 - 79 43% -0  54% 9 - 16 7 - 8 B- +8 A +14 A- B- A D -5 B F F
 Thu, Feb 19 117 @Hawaii W 86 - 75 18% +6  96% 10 - 16 8 - 8 A- +17 B- +4 B+ F C A +11 A B B-
 Thu, Feb 26 264 Long Beach St. W 85 - 80 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 137 @UC San Diego L 76 - 84 22%
 Thu, Mar 5 116 @UC Irvine L 73 - 83 18%
 Sat, Mar 7 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 79 83%
Totals 12 - 18 10 - 10 -4 C -1 B C- A- D+ -3 C B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C F C C- 37% 14% 55% A- C C D+ C- F+ C+ B+ B- D+ D+ C- C C- 39% 16% 45% D+ D+ C- C- D+ C- C+ C- C+
1.07 58% 25% 34% -1 +2 1.03 31% 1.0 .30 21% .32 78% .25 1.13 62% 39% 34% +1 +1 1.06 32% 1.1 .34 16% .29 73% .23
Nov
3		 USC F F+ A D D- 48% 4% 48% A+ C- A- F D+ F F F F C+ C A+ D B- 46% 9% 44% F C C A+ A- C F B+ F
0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12 1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39
Nov
8		 Seattle C D- D- A- B 32% 6% 62% B+ B+ A F C F A+ B- A+ B+ D+ F B- C- 44% 11% 45% D- D+ F A+ C+ A B+ A+ A+
0.96 47% 33% 38% 0 +1 1.04 41% 0.7 .29 30% .41 73% .30 0.93 63% 50% 32% +2 +2 1.09 32% 0.6 .19 22% .24 36% .08
Nov
12		 Colorado St. C- D B A- B- 31% 13% 56% B B- D F F+ D C+ F C- D+ C- A+ F C- 33% 5% 61% D- D+ A+ F B- D- C+ F D-
1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18 1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30
Nov
14		 Montana D+ D- F C+ D 59% 10% 31% A+ C- C C C D C+ C+ B- C- D- A+ A A 36% 14% 50% C- A- C F F+ F F D+ F
1.01 53% 17% 33% -6 +3 0.97 29% 1.0 .29 17% .31 71% .22 1.11 67% 25% 28% -3 +1 0.97 23% 1.4 .33 15% .42 79% .33
Nov
20		 Utah B- F D- A+ A 56% 6% 38% A+ A+ C- B- C F A+ F A+ A C+ C- B- B+ 47% 8% 45% F B- A+ C- A+ B+ C- F D
1.10 45% 33% 60% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 23% .48 58% .28 1.02 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.05 16% 1.0 .16 19% .33 82% .27
Nov
24		 Northern Arizona D B F C+ C 43% 2% 55% A- C+ F+ F F F+ D- A- D D- C- F F F 39% 21% 39% D+ F+ F+ D F+ D+ F A+ F
1.10 65% 0% 36% +5 +3 1.17 26% 0.9 .23 20% .24 80% .19 1.17 59% 50% 41% +7 0 1.16 30% 1.1 .33 15% .49 55% .27
Nov
25		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F F F 34% 15% 51% C- F A C+ A F A+ A+ A+ D- C- F A- C- 50% 7% 43% F D+ F+ B+ D+ D+ B+ F D+
0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56 1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Fullerton C+ D+ A A+ A+ 27% 4% 69% B A+ F F F F A+ C+ A+ C+ B+ F+ F D+ 41% 22% 37% C C- D- D D- A- F B- F+
1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35 1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29
Dec
6		 UC Riverside C+ A- A+ C- B 45% 6% 49% A- B+ C F F+ D- A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D- 48% 19% 33% D D- C F F F F+ A- D+
1.18 68% 67% 33% +6 +2 1.18 30% 0.6 .18 18% .45 81% .36 1.23 73% 50% 22% +4 +1 1.11 27% 1.3 .36 7% .36 67% .24
Dec
16		 Montana St. C F D- F F 45% 6% 49% A- F A A+ A+ C+ A+ D- A+ D- F A+ A+ A 30% 14% 55% F+ A- D F F F F A- F
1.11 41% 33% 25% -15 +2 0.78 40% 1.6 .64 15% .51 71% .36 1.16 76% 25% 23% -6 0 0.91 32% 1.5 .48 11% .39 68% .27
Dec
19		 UCLA B+ A F A+ A+ 34% 2% 64% A+ A+ C B- C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F B F F 51% 5% 44% F F A+ F A F+ F F F
1.11 69% 0% 43% +12 +2 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 31% .40 95% .38 1.37 72% 33% 44% +14 +3 1.35 16% 1.8 .28 10% .41 90% .37
Dec
21		 Idaho F B- A F F 33% 7% 60% A F D+ F F D A+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ F B- 19% 26% 54% A+ B+ B F C- C+ F D+ F
0.96 61% 50% 21% -10 +1 0.85 23% 0.5 .11 17% .57 79% .45 1.00 36% 20% 42% -2 -2 0.93 24% 1.2 .28 17% .41 75% .30
Jan
1		 UC San Diego D+ C+ F F+ D- 26% 7% 67% B- D B+ D B- B D+ B- C- B A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% B A+ F F F C B- F C-
1.01 57% 0% 28% -9 +1 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 14% .24 71% .17 0.98 41% 25% 25% -14 0 0.74 35% 1.2 .42 17% .23 85% .20
Jan
3		 Long Beach St. F F F D- F 35% 8% 56% B F D- A+ C+ B B+ D B C+ F A- A+ C- 47% 26% 26% F+ D+ B+ F C C- C- B C
0.93 35% 0% 30% -15 +1 0.75 22% 1.6 .36 15% .42 72% .30 1.04 76% 29% 21% +1 0 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 17% .29 71% .20
Jan
8		 Cal St. Northridge B- C F B- C 23% 13% 64% C C D A C C C C+ C+ D D+ D- F F 53% 13% 34% D- F F C+ D- C F A- D
1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24 1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24
Jan
10		 UC Davis C+ C+ A+ F D- 28% 11% 60% C- D- F A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C B A- D B- 20% 33% 47% A+ B+ B+ F C D- C+ F D+
1.14 60% 50% 28% -3 0 0.96 20% 1.6 .31 14% .44 93% .41 1.06 55% 28% 38% -1 -3 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 15% .32 85% .27
Jan
15		 Hawaii F C A+ F+ C- 40% 8% 52% A- C+ A D- B- F C F D+ D F+ F A- F+ 40% 21% 39% B D- C C+ C C A+ F A
0.85 55% 50% 27% -6 +2 0.94 36% 0.9 .31 30% .31 59% .18 1.10 70% 58% 27% +5 0 1.12 31% 1.0 .31 19% .22 86% .19
Jan
22		 UC Santa Barbara D- A+ F F D+ 39% 7% 54% A- C- F B+ D- D- B- D+ C+ F F A F F 41% 13% 46% D- F F D F F A+ B A+
1.00 78% 0% 28% 0 +2 1.07 17% 1.2 .21 19% .37 70% .26 1.60 95% 29% 56% +29 +1 1.63 45% 1.1 .50 13% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Cal St. Fullerton D D- A+ C- C- 28% 6% 67% B- C- A+ D B+ F D C+ D+ F D- F F F 38% 10% 52% F+ F F A+ C+ C- F F F
1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20 1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33
Jan
29		 Cal St. Bakersfield A+ A+ F A A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ A F C- F D+ A+ A C B+ F D- F 31% 29% 40% C- F D- F F B A+ A+ A+
1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34 1.02 47% 50% 36% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Riverside A A- A+ C+ B+ 52% 6% 43% A A- B+ D- C+ C- C A+ B+ F+ D+ F C- F 35% 31% 33% A F+ F B+ F A F A F
1.26 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 38% 0.8 .31 16% .34 81% .27 1.17 61% 56% 35% +7 -2 1.14 54% 0.7 .38 24% .46 65% .30
Feb
5		 Cal St. Northridge B+ A+ A- A+ 33% 0% 67% A A+ F A+ C D- F A+ D+ F C+ F F F 49% 17% 33% C- F B+ F F C- A+ D A+
1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20 1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10
Feb
7		 UC Davis F F A+ F F 41% 2% 57% A- F C+ F D- F D A+ B+ A C A+ A A 42% 15% 44% F+ A- F A+ C+ A- B- F D+
0.84 32% 100% 27% -16 +3 0.76 33% 0.7 .23 27% .28 100% .28 0.97 60% 14% 29% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .25 22% .31 88% .28
Feb
12		 UC Irvine C- B F B- B 28% 10% 62% B B B A A F B+ C+ B+ B+ A A+ F C 34% 22% 44% C- C B- A+ A+ B+ A D B+
0.99 57% 0% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .43 26% .31 72% .22 0.92 45% 23% 42% -2 0 0.97 28% 0.5 .15 21% .22 71% .16
Feb
14		 UC Santa Barbara A A A B B+ 43% 8% 49% A- A- C A- B- A A A A+ D A F B- B+ 28% 15% 57% C+ B B+ F F F C- B- C
1.33 71% 50% 38% +9 +2 1.24 28% 1.3 .34 12% .44 81% .36 1.18 47% 63% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.6 .43 12% .32 74% .24
Feb
19		 Hawaii B- A+ F F+ B 47% 8% 44% A B+ F F F C A A+ A+ A D- A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% D- A C A B B- F B F
1.04 71% 0% 27% -2 +2 1.03 14% 0.6 .08 16% .39 81% .32 0.91 68% 0% 14% -11 +2 0.84 31% 0.8 .26 21% .58 68% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 1.4 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 9.0 0.4 10.7 5th
6th 0.3 11.6 6.9 0.0 18.8 6th
7th 4.6 22.6 1.5 28.7 7th
8th 4.1 21.7 11.3 0.1 37.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.1 26.6 46.8 19.9 2.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
11-9 19.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.2 0.1 19.6
10-10 46.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 46.3
9-11 26.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 26.4
8-12 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.7 99.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 3.1%