Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 322
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 307
Pace 72.6 73
Improvement -1.5 241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 316 F+ C D B F+
Defense D 308 D+ F+ C+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 241 D 52% 315 -3.3 294
2 Pt. Jumpers 66% 5 D+ 35% 280 +4.1 30
Three Pointers 29% 357 D- 30% 331 -7.9 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.9 351 D- -5.3 337
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.88 355
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 134 D+ 0.97 269 C 0.31 171
Turnovers D 19.4% 321
Freethrows B 0.35 49 C+ 74% 126 B 0.26 46
Total Offense D -5.7 316

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 320 D+ 12.5% 270
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 90 D+ 6.6% 278
Three Pointers C- 81% 249 D 1.5% 307
Total D- 46% 342 D- 7.3% 331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 128 C 58% 185 +1.3 226
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 244 F+ 45% 351 +0.4 214
Three Pointers 41% 177 C- 35% 214 +0.5 207
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 248 C- +1.7 245
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 251
Second Chance F 37.6% 359 C- 1.06 238 F+ 0.40 343
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 142
Freethrows D- 0.37 331 C 72% 193 D- 0.27 328
Total Defense D -4.7 308

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 197 B 14.9% 55
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 272 A- 9.6% 17
Three Pointers D 89% 249 C 1.0% 307
Total C- 58% 244 B+ 8.3% 31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 185 16.0 19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 151 0.22 329
Improvement -0.4 #206 -1.1 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 81% 50% 95%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 29.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 16
Quad 45 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 70 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -13 D- F F C- -2 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 362 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 83% +7  89% 1 - 1 C- -5 D- -7 F+ D- F B- +3 F+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 75 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 4% -11  2% 1 - 2 D- -11 D+ -3 C- C+ D- F -11 B+ F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 146 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 10% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -9 B +6 D+ A+ F F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 93% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -11 D- -6 F B A- D -6 D- B F
 Tue, Nov 25 85 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 4% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -20 F -20 F B+ F B +4 B- F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 134 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 9% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 C+ +3 D D- A B+ +6 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 164 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 12% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -18 F -12 F A F D -5 D F C
 Sat, Dec 6 143 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 9% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +4 A- F C+ F -24 F F D
 Thu, Dec 11 140 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 21% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -13 F -12 F B D- C -1 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 290 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 50% -4  12% 3 - 8 F -18 F -15 F F F D+ -3 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 186 Idaho W 64 - 63 29% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 C+ C- F B+ +6 A C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 122 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 17% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B +7 C A- A F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 179 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 13% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B +6 D B+ A C- -2 D+ F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 294 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 51% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -10 F -13 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A A-
 Sat, Jan 10 259 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 23% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 D- -7 D+ F D+ C -1 D F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 143 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 21% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C- -2 F A+ A D- -7 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 17 139 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 20% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -23 F -13 D- F F F+ -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 108 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -20 D -4 F F A+ F -13 B F D
 Thu, Jan 29 247 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 40% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -33 F+ -9 D+ B+ F F -21 F D- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 179 UC Davis L 72 - 80 28% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D+ -4 C B- D F+ -8 B F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 122 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 7% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 F+ -8 F B+ F C -1 C+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 212 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 16% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 F+ -16 F -12 F C- D C- -3 F+ A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 108 Hawaii L 74 - 89 15% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 D- -14 C +0 B- D+ C+ F -14 D+ F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 294 @UC Riverside L 72 - 78 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 212 Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 83 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 139 @UC San Diego L 66 - 81 8%
 Sat, Feb 28 259 Long Beach St. L 75 - 77 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 164 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 86 26%
 Sat, Mar 7 247 @Cal Poly L 80 - 89 21%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 16 -10 D -6 A- D- F+ D -5 D- C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ D- D- 37% 66% 29% F+ F+ C+ D+ C D B C+ B D C F+ C- C- 41% 18% 41% D+ D+ F C- F+ C+ D- C D-
1.01 52% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 32% 1.0 .31 19% .35 74% .26 1.15 58% 45% 35% +2 0 1.06 38% 1.1 .40 17% .37 72% .25
Nov
3		 California F F D D D- 51% 33% 16% D D- C+ F F F A+ C- A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 14% 39% F F+ F B F A F A- D
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D C F+ 46% 19% 35% C F+ B F D- F B+ A- A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B F+ F A+ C+ A+ D- A+ C
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi D+ C+ B- F C 41% 39% 20% D- C- B- C- C+ D- A+ D- A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A F+ F F C- F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C 34% 32% 34% F D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ F D- A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F+ F F C+ F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +14 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D- C- F+ F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C B+ B A- A+ F+ A+ D C+ F A+ F+ 35% 46% 19% C+ D- B- B+ B F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ B- B+ F A+ F A+ B C- F A+ B+ 44% 2% 54% F B- F+ D+ F+ A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. C+ B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D D- D+ D- A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% D- A+ F F F A D D D-
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A C+ A F A+ B A+ D C- F C+ D+ 57% 8% 35% F D F F+ F C F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F F F C+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F+ F D F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F C F F F 35% 38% 27% F F B B- B D- A+ B+ A+ C A A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F A+ F F F B F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F D+ F F 40% 24% 36% D- F A- F F F A+ A+ A+ D+ D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F A+ A+ A- F+ A D+
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B A- C B 27% 33% 40% D- C+ D+ B- C- F F F F B+ B- B- A A 31% 24% 45% A- A C- C- C- C+ C+ F C-
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B D+ F+ A+ C+ 40% 40% 19% F+ C A+ C- A- A B A- B+ F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B D C+ C- D+ 36% 25% 40% D- D B- A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A D F C- 34% 11% 55% D- D+ F+ D F+ B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C- F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F B- B+ B+ B- A+ D- F D+ 42% 18% 40% D+ D+ B A+ A A- C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F D+ D+ A+ C+ C C+ B- F D 35% 31% 33% C D B- F F+ A- F D+ F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C- D A F F 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A+ A B C- B- D- C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% B- C- D+ A B C F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D 29% 29% 43% F+ D- C+ F F F A+ C+ A+ F+ A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B F D- F D C- D
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F A- F A+ A+ B A+ F F A- A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D F F+ F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B- C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B B+ B+ F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A D- B+ D+ F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D+ D- B+ A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C D+ A+ B- D B D+ B- F+ C+ D- B+ B- 29% 29% 42% A B D- F F F+ F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine F+ F C- F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- A- B+ F B A+ A+ C C F+ A+ B 57% 20% 23% F C+ F A+ A- F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F+ C- D A+ F C C- A F F F+ 35% 15% 50% C- F+ D- A+ A- C- D D+ D
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C A- A+ F A 25% 55% 20% F B- C- D- D+ C+ B- A B F F A+ D F+ 30% 30% 40% A+ D+ F+ F F C- F D- F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +3 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 1.1 5.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 2.0 14.8 8.9 1.4 0.0 27.1 10th
11th 16.0 31.0 14.1 1.2 0.0 62.3 11th
Total 16.0 33.0 30.0 15.4 4.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 4.7% 4.7
5-15 15.4% 15.4
4-16 30.0% 30.0
3-17 33.0% 33.0
2-18 16.0% 16.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.0%