Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#244
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#215
Pace63.0#327
Improvement-1.2#258

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#230
First Shot-2.8#261
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#147
Layup/Dunks-6.3#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#340
Freethrows+2.8#54
Improvement-1.4#285

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#244
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#260
Layups/Dunks+3.1#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows-6.5#364
Improvement+0.2#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 2.1% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 17.8% 35.6% 15.2%
.500 or above in Conference 24.4% 46.0% 21.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 6.8% 18.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 2.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 84 - 14
Quad 48 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 109   @ California L 73-86 15%     0 - 1 -6.2 -1.1 -4.6
  Nov 11, 2024 187   North Dakota St. W 86-81 50%     1 - 1 +0.7 +14.9 -13.7
  Nov 16, 2024 255   Fresno St. W 74-58 64%     2 - 1 +7.8 -2.5 +9.7
  Nov 22, 2024 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 54-74 28%     2 - 2 -18.3 -6.7 -15.7
  Nov 23, 2024 253   Florida International L 73-76 OT 52%     2 - 3 -8.0 -2.1 -5.7
  Nov 24, 2024 152   Northeastern W 68-60 32%     3 - 3 +8.5 +5.2 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2024 199   @ Southern Utah L 64-74 29%     3 - 4 -8.8 -6.8 -2.4
  Dec 05, 2024 57   @ UC Irvine L 66-82 7%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -3.4 +3.4 -7.1
  Dec 07, 2024 102   @ UC San Diego L 61-73 13%    
  Dec 18, 2024 309   @ Portland W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 21, 2024 256   Portland St. W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 23, 2024 187   @ North Dakota St. L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 02, 2025 204   UC Davis W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 04, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 09, 2025 126   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-74 19%    
  Jan 11, 2025 155   Cal St. Northridge L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 19, 2025 162   @ Hawaii L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 23, 2025 307   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 175   UC Riverside L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 228   Cal Poly W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 155   @ Cal St. Northridge L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 126   UC Santa Barbara L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 175   @ UC Riverside L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 13, 2025 102   UC San Diego L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 204   @ UC Davis L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. L 65-66 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 228   @ Cal Poly L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 162   Hawaii L 66-67 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.0 0.8 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 6.4 4.3 1.0 0.1 15.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 5.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 14.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.5 12.8 13.5 13.3 11.3 9.3 6.8 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 76.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 41.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 15.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.2% 17.5% 17.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 13.9% 13.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.2% 11.8% 11.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.3% 5.1% 5.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
12-8 4.2% 2.7% 2.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
11-9 6.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
10-10 9.3% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2
9-11 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3
8-12 13.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.3
7-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.5
6-14 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 7.2% 7.2
3-17 4.2% 4.2
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%