Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #262
Pace 72.5 #86
Improvement +2.3 #80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #305 F C D- B+ F
Defense #264 D+ F C+ D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.06 #285 -2.2 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #13 0.65 #318 +3.0 #50
Three Pointers 29% #358 0.88 #332 -8.1 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #352 -7.3 #353
Freethrows 20.0 #54 75% #133 14.9 #51
Second Chance 33.3% #111 1.01 #229 0.34 #139
Turnovers 18.9% #319
Total Offense -5.1 #305

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.13 #148 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #238 0.91 #353 -0.6 #222
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.07 #253 -1.0 #231
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #259 -2.4 #259
Freethrows 21.6 #340 69% #58 15.0 #323
Second Chance 36.0% #337 1.10 #249 0.39 #334
Turnovers 17.4% #120
Total Defense -2.9 #264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #344 0.9% #251
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.4% #341 3.9% #255
Possession Length 17.3 #171 16.4 #44
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #124 0.22 #314
Improvement -0.2 #193 +2.5 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 16.0 15.6
.500 or above 0.3% 1.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 7.0% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 54.3% 32.6% 56.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 32 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 73 @California L 60 - 87 5% -14  0 - 1 -16 -10 D- F F -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 358 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 81% +7  1 - 1 -2 -2 D- F F +1 F B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 59 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 4% -11  1 - 2 -10 +1 D+ B- D- -13 A F F
 Mon, Nov 17 152 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 14% -7  1 - 3 -10 +7 C- A+ F -16 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 95% +12  2 - 3 -11 -2 F B B -10 F B F
 Tue, Nov 25 116 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 10% -13  2 - 4 -24 -20 F B- F +0 C D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 149 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 14% -4  3 - 4 +9 +7 D C- A+ +2 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 204 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 22% -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -21 -11 F A F -9 D- F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 160 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 16% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -22 +6 A+ F C -27 F F F
 Thu, Dec 11 145 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 29% -6  3 - 7 -13 -8 F B+ F -5 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 13 282 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 57% -4  3 - 8 -18 -11 F F F -8 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 23 188 Idaho W 64 - 63 38% +2  4 - 8 -4 -8 C+ C F +4 A+ C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 126 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 24% -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -5 +8 C- A+ A+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 175 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 18% -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +6 D- B+ A- -3 C D- B+
 Thu, Jan 8 291 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 59% +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -9 -11 F A+ F +1 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 245 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 27% -5  6 - 10 2 - 4 -8 -4 D F D -3 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 160 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 32% -9  6 - 11 2 - 5 -9 +1 F A+ A+ -11 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 17 111 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 21% -13  6 - 12 2 - 6 -20 -12 F F F -8 C+ C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 108 @Hawaii L 64 - 79 8%
 Thu, Jan 29 263 Cal Poly W 83 - 82 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 175 UC Davis L 74 - 78 36%
 Thu, Feb 5 126 @UC Irvine L 65 - 78 11%
 Sat, Feb 7 240 @Cal St. Fullerton L 77 - 84 26%
 Thu, Feb 12 108 Hawaii L 67 - 76 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 291 @UC Riverside L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 240 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 81 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 111 @UC San Diego L 67 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 Long Beach St. L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Mar 5 204 Cal St. Northridge L 80 - 82 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 263 @Cal Poly L 80 - 85 31%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -8 -5 F C D- -3 D+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.0 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.8 4.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.2 7.2 1.4 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 9.7 11.1 2.9 0.1 26.8 10th
11th 2.1 7.9 13.1 10.6 3.5 0.2 37.2 11th
Total 2.1 8.2 15.6 21.4 21.6 15.7 9.5 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.3% 0.3
10-10 1.2% 1.2
9-11 4.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-13 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
6-14 21.6% 21.6
5-15 21.4% 21.4
4-16 15.6% 15.6
3-17 8.2% 8.2
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%