Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#297
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#294
Pace84.0#5
Improvement+0.3#167

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#292
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#345
Layup/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#229
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement+0.5#140

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#273
First Shot-3.7#295
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#150
Layups/Dunks+1.8#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#306
Freethrows-3.2#335
Improvement-0.2#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 1.1% 2.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 8.5% 11.2% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.0% 28.8% 37.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 15
Quad 46 - 78 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 99 @Wyoming L 82-92 8%     0 - 1 -2.0 -1.0 +0.7
  Mon, Nov 10 72 @California L 65-93 5%     0 - 2 -17.2 -9.3 -5.3
  Sat, Nov 15 133 Pacific L 73-85 27%     0 - 3 -13.0 -7.7 -4.1
  Fri, Nov 21 274 @Portland L 85-103 33%     0 - 4 -20.9 +1.7 -20.7
  Sat, Nov 22 152 St. Thomas W 88-80 23%     1 - 4 +8.2 +7.4 +0.1
  Sun, Nov 23 161 Northern Colorado L 93-97 24%     1 - 5 -4.3 +7.1 -10.8
  Sat, Nov 29 311 Pepperdine W 83-69 65%     2 - 5 +2.7 +6.2 -3.6
  Thu, Dec 4 250 Cal Poly L 91-94 53%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -11.1 -2.6 -8.0
  Sat, Dec 6 106 @Hawaii L 59-69 10%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -3.0 -8.6 +5.9
  Sat, Dec 13 295 @Denver L 83-86 38%    
  Sun, Dec 21 45 @Oklahoma St. L 79-100 2%    
  Sun, Dec 28 35 @SMU L 72-95 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 140 UC Santa Barbara L 77-83 30%    
  Sat, Jan 3 122 UC Irvine L 72-79 25%    
  Thu, Jan 8 101 @UC San Diego L 74-89 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 253 Cal St. Northridge W 87-86 53%    
  Thu, Jan 15 173 @UC Davis L 72-82 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 255 @UC Riverside L 77-82 32%    
  Thu, Jan 22 279 Long Beach St. W 80-78 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 250 @Cal Poly L 87-92 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 74-86 14%    
  Thu, Feb 5 255 UC Riverside W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 303 Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-80 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 279 @Long Beach St. L 77-81 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 122 @UC Irvine L 69-82 12%    
  Thu, Feb 19 173 UC Davis L 75-79 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 303 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-83 42%    
  Sat, Feb 28 106 Hawaii L 74-82 23%    
  Thu, Mar 5 101 UC San Diego L 77-86 21%    
  Sat, Mar 7 253 @Cal St. Northridge L 84-89 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.8 7.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.3 7.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 20.5 10th
11th 0.4 2.3 5.2 7.1 5.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 23.4 11th
Total 0.4 2.3 5.6 9.6 13.3 15.1 15.5 12.9 10.1 6.8 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 30.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 11.3% 11.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.5% 7.2% 7.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
10-10 4.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.2
9-11 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 6.7
8-12 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.1
7-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-14 15.5% 15.5
5-15 15.1% 15.1
4-16 13.3% 13.3
3-17 9.6% 9.6
2-18 5.6% 5.6
1-19 2.3% 2.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%