Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#192
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#208
Pace64.3#296
Improvement-0.1#192

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#138
First Shot+1.8#125
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#225
Layup/Dunks+1.2#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#322
Freethrows+3.7#15
Improvement-3.7#352

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#251
First Shot+0.0#179
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#309
Layups/Dunks+0.2#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#264
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+3.5#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 46.6% 63.1% 37.9%
.500 or above in Conference 57.4% 65.9% 52.8%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.5% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.4% 4.5%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round4.5% 6.0% 3.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 77   @ Santa Clara L 77-84 15%     0 - 1 +2.7 +11.1 -8.7
  Nov 11, 2021 289   @ San Jose St. L 76-78 61%     0 - 2 -6.1 +3.0 -9.2
  Nov 16, 2021 264   George Washington W 74-59 76%     1 - 2 +6.4 +2.9 +4.3
  Nov 19, 2021 142   @ San Diego W 57-55 27%     2 - 2 +7.0 -6.9 +14.1
  Nov 23, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley L 67-72 70%     2 - 3 -11.7 -14.2 +2.8
  Nov 24, 2021 316   @ Northern Arizona W 73-56 66%     3 - 3 +11.3 +4.7 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2021 91   Wyoming L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 04, 2021 188   Pacific W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 08, 2021 50   @ San Diego St. L 58-71 11%    
  Dec 30, 2021 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-66 41%    
  Jan 01, 2022 315   @ Cal Poly W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 04, 2022 288   Long Beach St. W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 06, 2022 186   Hawaii W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 13, 2022 297   Cal St. Northridge W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 95   UC Santa Barbara L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 20, 2022 70   @ UC Irvine L 59-71 15%    
  Jan 22, 2022 187   UC San Diego W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 27, 2022 214   @ UC Davis L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 132   @ UC Riverside L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 03, 2022 315   Cal Poly W 71-61 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 08, 2022 288   @ Long Beach St. W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 13, 2022 186   @ Hawaii L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 17, 2022 95   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 19, 2022 297   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 24, 2022 70   UC Irvine L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 187   @ UC San Diego L 68-71 39%    
  Mar 03, 2022 132   UC Riverside L 64-65 47%    
  Mar 05, 2022 214   UC Davis W 74-70 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 5.4 5.1 2.4 0.4 14.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 4.8 4.9 1.8 0.2 13.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 5.0 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.3 1.5 4.0 3.2 1.0 0.2 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.6 7.9 10.6 11.9 13.0 11.7 10.6 8.9 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 94.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 80.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 47.5% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
15-5 18.8% 0.8    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.4% 25.6% 25.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 0.9% 21.6% 21.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-4 2.0% 18.2% 18.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6
15-5 4.0% 17.5% 17.5% 14.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.3
14-6 6.0% 12.3% 12.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 5.2
13-7 8.9% 8.1% 8.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 8.1
12-8 10.6% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.0
11-9 11.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.3
10-10 13.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.6
9-11 11.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.7
8-12 10.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.4
7-13 7.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.9
6-14 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.6
5-15 3.5% 3.5
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.3 95.3 0.0%