Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.8 205
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 175
Pace 79.7 8
Improvement +1.7 126

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 210 C D B- C+ C
Defense C- 215 D C B- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 203 C 58% 171 -0.3 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 187 C- 37% 214 -0.3 193
Three Pointers 42% 161 C+ 35% 138 +1.0 143
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 192 C +0.4 159
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 165
Second Chance D 25.6% 315 C- 0.98 256 D 0.25 314
Turnovers B- 15.6% 107
Freethrows C+ 0.32 122 C 72% 206 C+ 0.23 133
Total Offense C- -1.4 210

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 306 C- 11.5% 213
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 62 C+ 4.3% 125
Three Pointers B+ 91% 35 B- 0.5% 75
Total C 56% 177 C+ 5.4% 169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 D 64% 324 +0.1 185
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 325 D 42% 316 -1.3 86
Three Pointers 49% 10 C- 35% 225 +5.0 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 244 D +3.3 304
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 300
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 153 C 1.04 209 C 0.31 171
Turnovers B- 18.6% 77
Freethrows C 0.31 203 C+ 72% 143 C 0.22 194
Total Defense C- -1.3 215

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 176 D 7.2% 323
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 288 C 5.2% 149
Three Pointers D- 90% 333 B+ 2.0% 32
Total D 61% 307 D+ 4.3% 284

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 12 17.2 165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 20 0.18 212
Improvement +1.2 #125 +0.5 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 241 209 177
Conference Record 9 - 11 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.4
.500 or above 17% 22% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 92% 100% 73%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 87 - 14
Quad 48 - 315 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 104 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 17% -3  14% 0 - 1 C- -3 D -5 D D- F+ B +4 C+ B D-
 Mon, Nov 10 71 @California L 65 - 93 10% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F -12 D+ F+ D+ C- -3 B+ C- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 127 Pacific L 73 - 85 41% -14  0% 0 - 3 D- -13 F+ -10 F D- A+ C- -2 F A A-
 Fri, Nov 21 219 @Portland L 85 - 103 41% -13  2% 0 - 4 F -18 C +1 A F C+ F -18 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 121 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 30% -1  39% 1 - 4 B +11 B- +5 C+ D- A B+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 156 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 39% -4  13% 1 - 5 C- -4 B- +4 C D- A+ D- -8 C+ D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 276 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 75% +5  72% 2 - 5 C+ +4 C+ +3 C B A- C+ +2 B+ B C
 Thu, Dec 4 231 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 65% -5  6% 2 - 6 0 - 1 D -10 D -5 C C- F+ D+ -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 117 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 20% -9  1% 2 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 F -12 F F A- A- +8 B B- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 236 @Denver W 105 - 86 44% +19  96% 3 - 7 A +18 A +14 A+ B D+ B- +2 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 62 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 9% -10  0% 3 - 8 B- +7 B +7 A+ A- C+ C+ +0 F+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 28 32 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  0% 3 - 9 F -29 F -12 F D+ F F -13 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 144 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 47% +13  97% 4 - 9 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 B C+ A- C+ +0 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 116 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 39% -9  16% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -22 D -6 D C- A- F -17 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 137 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 25% +4  52% 5 - 10 2 - 3 A +21 A+ +18 A+ C A+ B +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 159 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 51% -1  32% 6 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 B+ D B- B- +3 C B C+
 Thu, Jan 15 179 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 33% -9  0% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -3 F+ -9 F C- C- B+ +7 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 279 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 54% -9  0% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D- -13 F -11 F D- D- C -1 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 264 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 72% +11  98% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 D -6 B+ F D+ A- +7 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 231 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 43% +8  89% 8 - 12 5 - 5 B+ +14 A +11 A F+ B- B- +2 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 31 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 83 26% -13  0% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -10 F -11 D- D F+ C+ +1 D B+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 279 UC Riverside W 78 - 72 75% -1  43% 9 - 13 6 - 6 C- -4 D- -7 D- F B- B- +3 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 66 86% +16  97% 10 - 13 7 - 6 C+ +2 D -4 B- F B B+ +5 B- C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 264 @Long Beach St. W 86 - 82 50% -4  20% 11 - 13 8 - 6 C +1 B- +5 C- A- A D+ -4 F A B
 Sat, Feb 14 116 @UC Irvine L 65 - 86 20% -7  31% 11 - 14 8 - 7 F+ -15 D -5 D- B- B+ F+ -9 F C- B
 Thu, Feb 19 179 UC Davis W 93 - 92 56% -8  1% 12 - 14 9 - 7 C- -3 A+ +20 A+ D+ B F -24 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84 - 79 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 117 Hawaii L 77 - 80 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 137 UC San Diego L 77 - 78 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 83 - 89 30%
Totals 14 - 16 11 - 9 -3 C- -1 A+ C C C- -1 C+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- C+ C 38% 37% 42% C C D C- D B- C+ C C+ C- D D C- D 35% 16% 49% D+ D C+ C C B- C C+ C
1.07 58% 37% 35% 0 0 1.03 26% 1.0 .25 16% .32 72% .23 1.11 64% 42% 35% +3 0 1.10 30% 1.0 .31 19% .31 72% .23
Nov
8		 Wyoming D B+ D F D 45% 24% 31% D+ D F+ C- D- F+ A+ B- A+ B A- D- D- C+ 44% 11% 46% D+ C+ A+ F B D- F A+ D-
0.98 65% 33% 19% -5 0 0.92 18% 0.9 .16 20% .64 72% .46 1.10 48% 50% 38% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.2 .30 13% .51 59% .30
Nov
10		 California F B D+ F D+ 38% 23% 39% D+ D+ C- F F+ D+ F F F C- B+ A+ D+ A 36% 15% 49% D- B+ C- C C- F+ F F F
0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08 1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38
Nov
15		 Pacific F+ F F F F 47% 21% 32% A- F C- F D- A+ C- A C+ C- F+ F F F 46% 26% 28% C+ F A+ A- A A- C- F+ D
0.93 42% 29% 24% -14 +1 0.74 23% 0.8 .17 9% .31 77% .24 1.09 65% 54% 50% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.9 .21 24% .29 82% .24
Nov
21		 Portland C B B- A+ A 38% 14% 48% B- A D- F F C+ D+ F F F F+ F F F 46% 18% 36% D+ F B+ F F D- B B- B
1.09 64% 38% 43% +8 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14 1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18
Nov
22		 St. Thomas B- B F C- C 39% 9% 52% B- C+ F A- D- A A+ A+ A+ B+ C C- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% C+ A+ D+ F+ D D- B F D
1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35 1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24
Nov
23		 Northern Colorado B- C F C- C 55% 16% 30% B C D D- D- A+ A+ F+ B+ D- D- C B- C+ 35% 15% 51% C- C+ B F D- F F F F
1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30 1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47
Nov
29		 Pepperdine C+ A- C D- C 37% 17% 46% D+ C C+ B+ B A- F D- F C+ D- A A+ A- 36% 15% 49% D- B+ A+ F B C F F F
1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10 0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40
Dec
4		 Cal Poly D F+ A- A C+ 41% 22% 37% D+ C C- C C- F+ A+ D A+ D+ C F F F 27% 4% 69% C+ F A+ A+ A+ A F B+ F
1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29 1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35
Dec
6		 Hawaii F F+ C- F F 54% 14% 32% A- F F+ F F A- D+ C- D+ A- D+ A+ B- B 30% 8% 62% C B C- A B- B- B+ A A
0.81 45% 38% 17% -15 +2 0.75 18% 0.5 .09 12% .28 67% .19 0.95 63% 0% 30% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .28 21% .29 65% .19
Dec
13		 Denver A B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% B- A+ C- A+ B D+ B B B B- D+ A+ A A 42% 16% 42% F B+ C- F F C+ D A+ C+
1.37 64% 50% 50% +15 +1 1.36 31% 1.4 .44 14% .35 74% .26 1.12 58% 22% 29% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.6 .51 16% .34 64% .22
Dec
21		 Oklahoma St. B B- D A+ A+ 42% 11% 47% B A+ B- A A- C+ A+ F A C+ C+ D- F F 40% 12% 47% B- F+ C A B A+ C+ A B
1.12 59% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.3 .40 18% .52 50% .26 1.18 57% 43% 48% +10 +1 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 21% .34 67% .22
Dec
28		 SMU F F A+ F F 25% 27% 47% D F B+ F D+ F A+ D+ A F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% B- F F A D+ C C B- C+
0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26 1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21
Jan
1		 UC Santa Barbara B+ A+ A+ F B+ 43% 25% 31% C- B F A+ C+ A- A+ A A+ C+ F D F F 27% 14% 59% C+ F D- A B- A+ A+ F B+
1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45 1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19
Jan
3		 UC Irvine D F F A D+ 28% 31% 41% F+ D D+ C C- A- D- B D F F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% F F F F F A- D A+ C
0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15 1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20
Jan
8		 UC San Diego A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% D+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ F+ A- B D+ B A A 27% 6% 67% C+ A- F F F A+ F F F
1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24 1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34
Jan
10		 Cal St. Northridge C C+ F A+ B 41% 15% 44% B B+ D C- D B- A+ F A- B- D+ A+ C C 47% 15% 38% C- C A- C- B C+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28 1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09
Jan
15		 UC Davis F+ F F B- F 40% 17% 42% C- F D+ C C- C- A+ F A+ B+ C- D A+ B+ 47% 11% 42% F B- F C F A+ F A F
0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32 0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39
Jan
17		 UC Riverside F B- D- F F 39% 21% 39% C- F D- D+ D- D- A+ C+ A+ C F F C- F 34% 26% 40% B+ F B+ A A- B+ F+ F F
0.93 64% 33% 14% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .49 71% .35 1.04 71% 54% 35% +9 -1 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 22% .36 82% .30
Jan
22		 Long Beach St. D A A+ F A- 34% 27% 39% D- B+ F F F D+ C- B C A- D- B- B+ B- 27% 20% 53% D C+ C A+ A+ A+ D- D+ F+
1.04 73% 75% 24% +9 -1 1.18 19% 0.8 .15 19% .35 79% .27 0.90 67% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.6 .14 25% .33 76% .25
Jan
24		 Cal Poly A B A+ A A 38% 10% 52% B- A C+ F F+ B- A+ A A+ B- B- F C+ D+ 28% 6% 67% B- C- F C+ F A B B+ B+
1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33 1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Santa Barbara F B+ F B- D 31% 25% 43% D- D- F A+ D F+ D F+ D- C+ F F B D+ 38% 9% 53% D- D D+ A+ B+ A- C+ D- C
0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21 1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24
Feb
5		 UC Riverside D- F+ F C- F 62% 10% 29% A+ D- F C+ F B- A+ A+ A+ B- B- C- B- B- 34% 21% 45% B- B- A+ A A+ F B+ A+ A+
1.03 50% 20% 33% -7 +3 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 13% .49 84% .41 0.95 52% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 14% 0.7 .09 12% .24 56% .14
Feb
7		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F A+ A+ B- 35% 15% 50% C B- D- F F B C C+ C B+ C B- A+ A- 42% 17% 40% F B- C- B C+ B F+ A+ B
1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27 0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22
Feb
12		 Long Beach St. B- C F B+ D+ 45% 18% 38% B- C- B- A+ A- A C- A- C+ D+ F F C F 33% 24% 43% D F A+ F A B F C F
1.16 60% 20% 38% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.5 .46 13% .34 82% .28 1.11 81% 58% 33% +12 -1 1.24 12% 1.3 .15 20% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 UC Irvine D F A+ F D 22% 31% 47% F D- F A+ B- B+ F F F F+ F+ F F F 31% 27% 42% B- F B- D- C- B A+ A A+
0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08 1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10
Feb
19		 UC Davis A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ C+ D- D+ B B- A+ A F F C- F F 33% 16% 51% D+ F D C D+ F F C F
1.40 87% 70% 45% +24 -1 1.49 32% 0.9 .27 17% .34 89% .31 1.38 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 9% .53 75% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.6 2.6 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 6.5 1.5 8.3 3rd
4th 5.2 10.9 0.1 16.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 19.3 3.0 23.9 5th
6th 0.3 10.3 10.7 0.1 21.4 6th
7th 3.0 14.6 1.6 19.2 7th
8th 5.0 2.4 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 8.3 28.9 37.1 21.2 4.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 8.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.6% 9.2% 9.2% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.2
12-8 21.2% 4.1% 4.1% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 20.3
11-9 37.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 36.4
10-10 28.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 28.5
9-11 8.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.2
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.8 97.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.9 25.4 59.5 15.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 5.2%