Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#307
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#281
Pace65.1#289
Improvement-2.7#326

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#332
First Shot-6.6#339
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#136
Layup/Dunks-1.4#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.9#356
Freethrows+3.3#44
Improvement-2.7#349

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#223
First Shot-2.2#243
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#141
Layups/Dunks-0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#298
Freethrows-0.6#230
Improvement+0.0#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 1.0% 3.0% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 11.1% 2.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.1% 31.0% 54.4%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 46 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 100   @ Grand Canyon L 79-89 8%     0 - 1 -1.8 +5.7 -7.0
  Nov 08, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 53-80 7%     0 - 2 -18.3 -10.8 -10.3
  Nov 13, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 53-83 7%     0 - 3 -20.7 -12.1 -10.0
  Nov 15, 2024 76   @ Oregon St. L 51-70 6%     0 - 4 -8.6 -10.0 -1.1
  Nov 18, 2024 252   Idaho St. W 62-61 52%     1 - 4 -6.9 -6.4 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 18   @ UCLA L 47-80 2%     1 - 5 -15.4 -11.5 -5.8
  Nov 26, 2024 258   @ Pepperdine W 72-63 31%     2 - 5 +6.6 +5.5 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 277   @ Pacific L 55-64 34%     2 - 6 -12.3 -13.1 +0.0
  Dec 05, 2024 304   Long Beach St. L 56-73 61%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -27.4 -18.3 -10.0
  Dec 07, 2024 175   @ UC Riverside L 62-72 18%    
  Dec 15, 2024 321   Denver W 72-68 66%    
  Dec 22, 2024 177   Wyoming L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 02, 2025 155   Cal St. Northridge L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 102   UC San Diego L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 09, 2025 204   @ UC Davis L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 162   Hawaii L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 56-76 3%    
  Jan 18, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. L 63-66 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 244   Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 126   UC Santa Barbara L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 02, 2025 162   @ Hawaii L 61-71 19%    
  Feb 06, 2025 155   @ Cal St. Northridge L 66-77 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 204   UC Davis L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 228   Cal Poly L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 20, 2025 126   @ UC Santa Barbara L 62-75 13%    
  Feb 27, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 59-73 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 102   @ UC San Diego L 59-74 9%    
  Mar 06, 2025 228   @ Cal Poly L 70-77 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 175   UC Riverside L 65-69 37%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.3 0.2 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 6.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.8 7.9 4.1 0.6 0.0 23.2 10th
11th 1.5 4.9 8.9 10.6 8.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 37.5 11th
Total 1.5 4.9 9.5 13.8 15.8 15.2 13.5 10.3 6.9 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.0    0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
10-10 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.3
9-11 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
7-13 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 13.5% 13.5
5-15 15.2% 15.2
4-16 15.8% 15.8
3-17 13.8% 13.8
2-18 9.5% 9.5
1-19 4.9% 4.9
0-20 1.5% 1.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%