North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.8 30
Expected Predictive Rating +17.2 24
Pace 70.1 134
Improvement -4.6 339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 27 B+ B A B- C+
Defense B+ 42 A- A- D A A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 B+ 66% 33 +4.1 47
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 267 B- 41% 78 -0.5 203
Three Pointers 42% 157 B- 36% 80 +2.1 106
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 122 B+ +5.2 36
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 36
Second Chance B- 34.4% 69 B- 1.11 69 B 0.38 55
Turnovers A 12.6% 10
Freethrows B 0.35 52 D+ 70% 265 B- 0.24 102
Total Offense A- +8.9 27

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 60% 30 B 8.4% 51
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 99 B+ 2.3% 27
Three Pointers B- 88% 95 A- 0.1% 9
Total B+ 64% 33 B+ 3.8% 22

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 312 A- 49% 15 -6.0 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 17 B+ 33% 18 +1.6 305
Three Pointers 38% 272 C 34% 165 -1.8 108
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.4 20 B+ -4.8 35
1st FG Attempt A- 0.90 29
Second Chance B+ 25.2% 25 B+ 0.89 24 A- 0.23 16
Turnovers D 14.6% 313
Freethrows A 0.20 3 B- 70% 75 A 0.14 4
Total Defense B+ +5.8 42

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 31 C+ 12.5% 112
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 150 C- 4.3% 204
Three Pointers B 79% 56 C- 0.7% 192
Total B 49% 47 C 5.7% 164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.6 34 19.1 360
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 65 0.10 12
Improvement -0.9 #233 -3.7 #337

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 40 31 23
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 9 7 3
NCAA Tourney Seed 10 7 5
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Elite 8

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 6 Seed 32% 40% 19%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97% 99% 96%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97% 98% 95%
Average Seed 7.1 6.8 7.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 95%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 1%
First Round97% 99% 95%
Second Round58% 62% 51%
Sweet Sixteen16% 18% 12%
Elite Eight5% 6% 4%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 36 - 8
Quad 24 - 111 - 9
Quad 38 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 180 Central Arkansas W 94 - 54 95% +24  98% 1 - 0 A+ +36 A- +10 B A+ A- A+ +23 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 15 Kansas W 87 - 74 46% +2  42% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +20 A+ D+ C- A +9 C+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 234 Radford W 89 - 74 97% +11  85% 3 - 0 B- +8 D+ -4 D- C A A +10 A+ A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 350 NC Central W 97 - 53 99% +20  99% 4 - 0 A+ +28 A +13 C+ A+ A- A+ +14 A+ A F
 Tue, Nov 18 155 Navy W 73 - 61 94% +10  99% 5 - 0 B +9 C- -1 B D- D+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 143 St. Bonaventure W 85 - 70 89% +8  89% 6 - 0 A- +16 B +6 B+ A C- A +9 A B+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 11 Michigan St. L 58 - 74 33% -4  21% 6 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 C C+ A C- -2 C B- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 25 @Kentucky W 67 - 64 35% -2  21% 7 - 1 A +22 B +6 D A+ D+ A+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 74 Georgetown W 81 - 61 82% +7  83% 8 - 1 A+ +25 B- +5 A D+ A A+ +19 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 302 South Carolina Upstate W 80 - 62 98% +8  86% 9 - 1 B- +7 B+ +9 B+ C+ A+ C -1 B- C F
 Tue, Dec 16 131 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 58 92% +10  78% 10 - 1 A +18 A +13 A- A A+ A- +8 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 34 Ohio St. W 71 - 70 51% +4  80% 11 - 1 A- +15 B +6 B- B+ A+ A +9 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 242 East Carolina W 99 - 51 97% +24  96% 12 - 1 A+ +41 A +13 A+ B+ B- A+ +24 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 86 Florida St. W 79 - 66 85% +7  86% 13 - 1 1 - 0 A- +17 B +6 C- B+ A+ A+ +11 A+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 32 @SMU L 83 - 97 39% -5  10% 13 - 2 1 - 1 C+ +4 A +14 A+ D- A F -10 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 61 Wake Forest W 87 - 84 79% +8  97% 14 - 2 2 - 1 B +9 A +12 A A+ C+ C- -3 D- B- A-
 Wed, Jan 14 75 @Stanford L 90 - 95 65% +5  95% 14 - 3 2 - 2 B- +6 A+ +16 A+ A+ A F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 71 @California L 78 - 84 64% -11  0% 14 - 4 2 - 3 B- +5 B +7 A- C C+ C- -2 B- F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 84 Notre Dame W 91 - 69 84% +14  97% 15 - 4 3 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +18 A+ A+ A- A- +8 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 22 @Virginia W 85 - 80 30% -4  18% 16 - 4 4 - 3 A+ +25 A+ +23 A+ D+ A+ B- +2 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @Georgia Tech W 91 - 75 84% +12  96% 17 - 4 5 - 3 A +20 A+ +16 C+ A A+ B- +3 B C C-
 Mon, Feb 2 70 Syracuse W 87 - 77 82% +14  95% 18 - 4 6 - 3 A- +15 A- +10 A+ C A- B +4 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 2 Duke W 71 - 68 27% -6  0% 19 - 4 7 - 3 A+ +24 A +14 A+ D+ A+ A+ +11 A+ D+ D-
 Tue, Feb 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 45% -4  0% 19 - 5 7 - 4 B- +7 C- -1 D+ C- A- A- +8 B+ A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 101 Pittsburgh W 79 - 65 88% +13  97% 20 - 5 8 - 4 A- +16 A- +10 A F+ A+ A- +7 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Feb 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 58 - 82 34% -13  1% 20 - 6 8 - 5 D+ -5 D -5 F C+ B C- -3 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 21 70 @Syracuse W 80 - 76 63%
 Mon, Feb 23 12 Louisville L 81 - 82 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 59 Virginia Tech W 81 - 72 79%
 Tue, Mar 3 38 Clemson W 73 - 69 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 2 @Duke L 68 - 81 12%
Totals 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15 A- +9 C B+ C+ B+ +6 B- D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ B- B- B+ 40% 29% 42% C+ B+ B- B- B A B D+ B- B+ A- B+ C B+ 33% 29% 38% A- A- B+ B+ A- D A B- A
1.21 66% 41% 36% +5 0 1.14 34% 1.1 .38 13% .35 70% .24 1.00 49% 33% 34% -5 -1 0.90 25% 0.9 .23 15% .20 70% .24
Nov
3		 Central Arkansas A- A+ F C- B- 48% 12% 40% B+ B A A+ A+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 24% 29% 47% A+ A+ B+ F C A+ A+ B- A+
1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28 0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10
Nov
7		 Kansas A+ A+ A+ B A+ 42% 16% 42% A- A+ A+ F D+ C- A- C- B+ A C A- F C- 22% 34% 44% A+ C+ A+ F B+ A B+ A+ A
1.23 74% 67% 35% +12 +1 1.27 44% 0.4 .17 16% .29 65% .18 1.05 64% 29% 45% +6 -3 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 20% .27 67% .18
Nov
11		 Radford D+ B- F D+ D- 37% 17% 46% C- D- B+ F+ C A A+ F A+ A B- A A+ A+ 28% 25% 47% A A+ C+ A+ A- F+ F A+ C-
1.09 63% 11% 33% -3 0 0.96 38% 0.9 .36 13% .70 63% .44 0.91 53% 27% 25% -11 -1 0.78 27% 0.7 .20 13% .44 61% .27
Nov
14		 NC Central A A B- C+ B- 33% 15% 52% C C+ B A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 28% 41% B+ A+ C+ A+ A F D+ B C
1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43 0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23
Nov
18		 Navy C- F A+ A+ C 53% 6% 40% A+ B D F D- D+ A+ B- A+ A A+ A+ C A+ 42% 28% 30% C+ A+ B A+ A+ F A F B
1.04 44% 67% 42% -1 +3 1.06 26% 0.8 .21 19% .39 77% .30 0.87 40% 18% 33% -14 -1 0.73 27% 0.6 .16 9% .25 81% .20
Nov
25		 St. Bonaventure B C+ D A+ B+ 43% 20% 37% C+ B+ B A+ A C- A+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ F A 43% 28% 28% C A A C- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.19 60% 33% 47% +7 +1 1.17 33% 1.3 .43 18% .46 78% .36 0.98 42% 35% 41% -5 -1 0.92 27% 1.0 .27 13% .13 63% .08
Nov
27		 Michigan St. C+ A F F D+ 43% 11% 46% A+ C A+ F C+ A A- C- B+ C- A+ F F C- 45% 37% 18% B C C+ B B- C- A+ D+ A+
0.96 65% 20% 19% -9 +2 0.87 32% 0.5 .16 13% .32 71% .23 1.22 48% 53% 56% +7 -2 1.12 40% 1.0 .40 16% .18 78% .14
Dec
2		 Kentucky B D A- F D+ 31% 36% 33% D- D A+ A+ A+ D+ C F D A+ F B+ A+ A+ 45% 28% 28% B A+ A+ A+ A+ C- D- D- F+
1.05 50% 44% 20% -7 -2 0.82 48% 1.1 .52 19% .29 60% .17 1.00 76% 31% 8% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.6 .17 14% .40 77% .31
Dec
7		 Georgetown B- B- A+ C- A 22% 28% 50% D A F+ A- D+ A B+ F+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 37% 32% 31% A- A+ A+ A A+ F A+ C A+
1.14 58% 67% 33% +8 -2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 13% .34 67% .22 0.86 48% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.68 22% 0.9 .20 6% .18 75% .13
Dec
13		 South Carolina Upstate B+ C D+ A+ B+ 46% 12% 42% B B+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A- F B- C A- B D- C- 19% 39% 42% A+ B- C+ D+ C F A+ B- A+
1.25 57% 33% 43% +4 +2 1.14 23% 1.6 .37 9% .38 64% .24 0.97 45% 32% 38% -3 -4 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 11% .05 67% .04
Dec
16		 East Tennessee St. A A+ C- C- B+ 39% 7% 55% B A- C A+ A A+ A+ F A- A- B- A+ B+ A 28% 26% 46% A+ A+ A+ F B- F+ B- A B+
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28 0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20
Dec
20		 Ohio St. B C+ C- D+ C+ 36% 15% 49% A B- B- A- B+ A+ D- F F A A+ F A+ A 24% 45% 31% A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F B- F+ C
1.10 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 11% .23 54% .12 1.08 50% 55% 27% +2 -4 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 9% .32 84% .27
Dec
22		 East Carolina A B- A A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B A+ A D+ B+ B- A+ F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 39% 33% 28% B+ A+ D- A+ A+ A B+ A- A-
1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30 0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19
Dec
30		 Florida St. B B+ C- F D+ 37% 15% 48% B C- A C B+ A+ B C- B A+ A+ D A A+ 26% 13% 61% B+ A+ B+ D C+ C- A A+ A+
1.14 65% 38% 27% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .37 11% .32 70% .23 0.95 36% 43% 27% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .35 13% .23 57% .13
Jan
3		 SMU A A- B- A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% C+ A+ C- F D- A B+ D+ B F F F F F 35% 16% 49% D- F A+ B- A+ F B- A B+
1.20 67% 40% 46% +12 -1 1.25 28% 0.7 .19 14% .32 68% .22 1.40 79% 56% 52% +23 0 1.49 22% 1.0 .22 10% .26 69% .18
Jan
10		 Wake Forest A A+ F C- A- 40% 11% 49% B A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C- D+ F D- F+ 29% 15% 56% C+ D- C B+ B- A- A+ B A+
1.22 78% 20% 32% +4 +1 1.13 43% 1.6 .70 20% .52 67% .35 1.18 63% 63% 39% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 18% .19 73% .14
Jan
14		 Stanford A+ B A+ C A+ 42% 28% 30% C A+ C+ A+ A+ A A+ F A F C F F F 38% 11% 51% B- F A+ A+ A+ F D+ A C+
1.23 62% 64% 33% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.6 .45 15% .52 63% .32 1.30 57% 67% 57% +20 +1 1.45 7% 0.0 .00 11% .35 65% .23
Jan
17		 California B A+ F+ C+ A 31% 20% 49% D+ A- C C+ C C+ A+ D A+ C- A+ C+ F C+ 25% 31% 43% A B- B- F F A- A- B- A-
1.11 73% 30% 33% +3 -1 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .47 61% .29 1.19 46% 38% 45% +4 -2 1.06 25% 2.3 .56 18% .28 75% .21
Jan
21		 Notre Dame A+ A- A+ A- A+ 34% 8% 58% A A+ A- A+ A+ A- A D- A- A- A+ B- C+ A+ 22% 37% 41% A+ A+ C- A+ B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.32 67% 50% 39% +8 +1 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 12% .38 70% .26 1.00 38% 36% 33% -5 -3 0.85 35% 0.7 .25 7% .20 54% .11
Jan
24		 Virginia A+ B+ B A+ A+ 27% 35% 38% D A+ D+ C D+ A+ B+ D B B- F+ A+ A A- 37% 20% 43% B+ A- D C+ C- C+ D C+ D+
1.25 60% 42% 48% +10 -3 1.16 22% 0.9 .19 6% .34 68% .23 1.18 68% 30% 27% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.1 .47 16% .35 70% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Georgia Tech A+ A D+ F C+ 37% 23% 40% C+ C+ B- A+ A A+ F A+ D- B- A- B+ F C+ 44% 40% 16% A B B+ F C C- C+ F D+
1.27 67% 33% 27% -2 0 0.97 33% 1.4 .47 3% .17 92% .16 1.04 50% 30% 63% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.3 .35 17% .28 82% .23
Feb
2		 Syracuse A- B+ D A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% D- A+ B+ F C A- A+ C- A+ B F D- C D+ 28% 41% 31% A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ D+ B D+ C+
1.20 61% 29% 53% +8 -1 1.15 38% 0.9 .34 15% .57 71% .41 1.06 73% 45% 35% +8 -3 1.11 28% 0.5 .15 14% .30 68% .21
Feb
7		 Duke A B A+ A A+ 23% 43% 34% F A+ F A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A A+ B A+ 49% 21% 30% A- A+ A F D+ D- A+ F A+
1.11 58% 48% 39% +7 -4 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 11% .25 79% .19 1.07 50% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.7 .53 13% .11 83% .09
Feb
10		 Miami (FL) C- C F+ D+ D+ 32% 25% 44% C D+ C D+ C- A- F A+ D A- D- A- B+ B- 44% 37% 19% A+ B+ A A+ A+ F+ D+ A C+
0.95 56% 29% 32% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 16% .17 80% .14 1.08 70% 32% 30% +2 -2 1.02 32% 0.8 .24 12% .37 61% .23
Feb
14		 Pittsburgh A- A+ C- A- A 38% 20% 42% C A D- F F+ A+ C A- C+ A- C+ C+ F D+ 49% 16% 35% D D+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ F A
1.21 71% 36% 39% +8 0 1.18 19% 0.7 .13 6% .28 82% .23 0.99 58% 38% 41% +4 +1 1.12 22% 0.8 .19 18% .15 75% .11
Feb
17		 North Carolina St. D B F F F 33% 9% 59% B- F A+ F C+ B A+ B A+ C- A+ F F A 49% 18% 33% C- A- D F+ F F B+ A A
0.90 60% 0% 19% -16 +1 0.72 40% 0.7 .28 19% .40 71% .29 1.28 41% 50% 44% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 6% .27 69% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 1.6 5.2 3rd
4th 0.5 7.9 0.3 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 5.3 5.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 16.7 1.2 19.2 6th
7th 0.8 13.0 12.2 26.0 7th
8th 0.1 7.3 15.1 1.7 24.2 8th
9th 0.5 3.2 0.4 4.1 9th
10th 0.8 0.4 1.2 10th
11th 0.4 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.9 11.7 29.9 36.4 18.0 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 2.2% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.0% 99.8% 5.9% 93.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.5 7.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 99.8%
11-7 36.4% 98.8% 3.8% 95.0% 6.8 0.0 0.3 3.1 10.0 13.7 7.2 1.6 0.1 0.4 98.8%
10-8 29.9% 97.6% 2.4% 95.3% 7.7 0.0 0.5 3.2 8.3 10.3 5.7 1.0 0.1 0.7 97.6%
9-9 11.7% 92.5% 1.2% 91.2% 8.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.3 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.9 92.4%
8-10 1.9% 75.1% 0.3% 74.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 75.0%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.5% 3.5% 94.0% 7.1 2.5 97.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.4 10.5 49.1 35.1 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 4.3 1.0 18.0 44.0 28.0 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 4.7 0.5 0.9 4.6 30.4 47.9 14.3 1.4
Lose Out 0.6% 56.1% 10.6 0.6 1.2 17.5 36.3 0.6