North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#21
Expected Predictive Rating+22.7#12
Pace70.3#160
Improvement-0.9#245

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#35
First Shot+5.8#42
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#54
Layup/Dunks+6.4#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#157
Freethrows+1.4#100
Improvement-1.4#287

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#16
First Shot+6.5#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#69
Layups/Dunks+5.4#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#206
Freethrows+4.5#4
Improvement+0.5#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 8.0% 8.4% 2.1%
Top 4 Seed 39.1% 40.6% 19.8%
Top 6 Seed 72.9% 74.3% 54.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.7% 98.0% 93.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 97.8% 93.4%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 6.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 93.4% 77.2%
Conference Champion 11.3% 11.9% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 3.6%
First Round97.0% 97.4% 91.9%
Second Round74.5% 75.4% 62.8%
Sweet Sixteen35.7% 36.5% 25.1%
Elite Eight13.6% 14.0% 8.6%
Final Four5.2% 5.3% 2.7%
Championship Game1.8% 1.9% 0.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Florida St. (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 113 - 8
Quad 35 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 282 Central Arkansas W 94-54 98%     1 - 0 +30.5 +11.5 +16.2
  Fri, Nov 7 17 Kansas W 87-74 56%     2 - 0 +27.4 +22.8 +4.5
  Tue, Nov 11 261 Radford W 89-74 98%     3 - 0 +6.5 -2.4 +6.7
  Fri, Nov 14 348 NC Central W 97-53 99%     4 - 0 +28.7 +18.8 +9.9
  Tue, Nov 18 203 Navy W 73-61 97%     5 - 0 +6.3 -1.2 +7.4
  Tue, Nov 25 116 St. Bonaventure W 85-70 88%     6 - 0 +18.3 +11.9 +6.0
  Thu, Nov 27 16 Michigan St. L 58-74 45%     6 - 1 +1.4 +4.8 -5.8
  Tue, Dec 2 20 @Kentucky W 67-64 38%     7 - 1 +22.2 +10.2 +12.3
  Sun, Dec 7 99 Georgetown W 81-61 89%     8 - 1 +22.4 +6.9 +15.1
  Sat, Dec 13 264 South Carolina Upstate W 80-62 98%     9 - 1 +9.3 +11.9 -0.8
  Tue, Dec 16 141 East Tennessee St. W 77-58 94%     10 - 1 +17.3 +13.7 +6.5
  Sat, Dec 20 31 Ohio St. W 71-70 58%     11 - 1 +15.1 +9.4 +5.8
  Mon, Dec 22 271 East Carolina W 99-51 98%     12 - 1 +39.1 +16.4 +18.7
  Tue, Dec 30 113 Florida St. W 88-72 93%    
  Sat, Jan 3 42 @SMU W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 61 Wake Forest W 81-71 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 81 @Stanford W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 65 @California W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Jan 21 64 Notre Dame W 77-66 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 26 @Virginia L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 129 @Georgia Tech W 80-69 84%    
  Mon, Feb 2 75 Syracuse W 80-69 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 4 Duke L 73-76 40%    
  Tue, Feb 10 35 @Miami (FL) L 76-77 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 84 Pittsburgh W 78-66 87%    
  Tue, Feb 17 28 @North Carolina St. L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 75 @Syracuse W 77-72 69%    
  Mon, Feb 23 13 Louisville W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 74 Virginia Tech W 81-70 85%    
  Tue, Mar 3 40 Clemson W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Mar 7 4 @Duke L 70-79 21%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 3.2 1.1 0.2 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.7 2.9 0.4 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.3 3.2 0.3 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.6 4.3 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.0 4.9 0.8 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 5.2 1.4 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.3 0.2 7.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.3 7.5 11.4 15.1 16.9 16.4 12.7 7.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 88.9% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.0
15-3 55.8% 4.1    1.7 1.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 18.1% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.7 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.7% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.3 0.7 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.3% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.9 0.5 1.9 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.7% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.6 0.2 1.3 4.5 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.4% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 4.3 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 4.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.9% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.8 6.1 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.1% 99.8% 5.5% 94.3% 5.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 5.3 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 11.4% 99.1% 4.3% 94.8% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.4 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-9 7.5% 97.1% 2.9% 94.3% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.2 97.1%
8-10 4.3% 90.4% 1.6% 88.8% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 90.2%
7-11 2.2% 74.0% 1.4% 72.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.6 73.6%
6-12 0.9% 40.8% 0.8% 40.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 40.3%
5-13 0.3% 9.5% 9.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.5%
4-14 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 3.0%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.7% 10.3% 87.4% 5.2 2.0 5.9 13.4 17.8 18.3 15.4 10.1 6.6 4.3 2.7 1.3 0.0 2.3 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 57.1 42.9