North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#24
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#29
Pace76.1#43
Improvement+3.9#8

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#7
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#95
Layup/Dunks+3.5#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#74
Freethrows+1.6#87
Improvement-0.8#248

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#79
First Shot+1.2#134
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#55
Layups/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows+3.4#11
Improvement+4.7#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.6% 3.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 9.4% 9.5% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 27.6% 27.8% 10.1%
Top 6 Seed 48.7% 49.0% 25.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 86.9% 68.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.2% 84.4% 64.9%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.4
.500 or above 98.2% 98.3% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 92.8% 84.2%
Conference Champion 22.9% 23.0% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four3.7% 3.6% 5.4%
First Round84.9% 85.2% 65.1%
Second Round56.7% 57.0% 36.5%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 27.3% 14.6%
Elite Eight12.3% 12.4% 5.6%
Final Four5.4% 5.4% 1.3%
Championship Game2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 36 - 118 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 277   Loyola Maryland W 83-67 97%     1 - 0 +6.7 +2.7 +3.1
  Nov 12, 2021 180   Brown W 94-87 94%     2 - 0 +3.2 +21.2 -18.0
  Nov 16, 2021 185   @ College of Charleston W 94-83 85%     3 - 0 +13.1 +5.7 +5.5
  Nov 20, 2021 1   Purdue L 84-93 25%     3 - 1 +11.5 +11.3 +0.9
  Nov 21, 2021 13   Tennessee L 72-89 41%     3 - 2 -1.2 +4.7 -5.0
  Nov 23, 2021 255   UNC Asheville W 72-53 97%     4 - 2 +11.2 +0.1 +12.1
  Dec 01, 2021 21   Michigan W 72-51 60%     5 - 2 +31.8 +11.4 +22.1
  Dec 05, 2021 99   @ Georgia Tech W 79-62 69%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +25.2 +15.0 +11.2
  Dec 11, 2021 289   Elon W 93-70 99%    
  Dec 14, 2021 110   Furman W 86-73 88%    
  Dec 18, 2021 9   UCLA L 77-81 37%    
  Dec 21, 2021 170   Appalachian St. W 81-64 94%    
  Dec 29, 2021 36   Virginia Tech W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 01, 2022 113   @ Boston College W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 05, 2022 84   @ Notre Dame W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 44   Virginia W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 99   Georgia Tech W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 18, 2022 100   @ Miami (FL) W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 51   @ Wake Forest W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 113   Boston College W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 74   North Carolina St. W 83-74 81%    
  Jan 31, 2022 37   @ Louisville L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 8   Duke L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 08, 2022 56   @ Clemson W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 38   Florida St. W 80-75 69%    
  Feb 16, 2022 179   Pittsburgh W 81-64 93%    
  Feb 19, 2022 36   @ Virginia Tech L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 21, 2022 37   Louisville W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 74   @ North Carolina St. W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 28, 2022 59   Syracuse W 86-77 78%    
  Mar 05, 2022 8   @ Duke L 77-84 27%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 6.2 6.1 3.8 1.4 0.3 22.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.1 7.5 4.6 1.2 0.2 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 6.0 9.1 11.7 13.6 14.5 13.7 11.1 7.4 3.9 1.4 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 96.1% 3.8    3.4 0.4
17-3 83.0% 6.1    4.6 1.5 0.0
16-4 56.1% 6.2    3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 27.9% 3.8    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.5% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 14.6 6.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.4% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.9% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 2.1 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.4% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 2.9 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.1% 99.9% 26.2% 73.8% 3.9 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 13.7% 99.9% 20.3% 79.6% 5.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.0 3.5 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 14.5% 99.2% 17.5% 81.6% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.9 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-7 13.6% 97.1% 11.9% 85.2% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.4 96.8%
12-8 11.7% 90.0% 7.3% 82.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.2 89.3%
11-9 9.1% 74.8% 5.2% 69.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.3 73.5%
10-10 6.0% 51.2% 3.4% 47.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.9 49.5%
9-11 3.7% 22.6% 2.7% 19.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.8 20.4%
8-12 2.1% 6.0% 1.2% 4.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 4.9%
7-13 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.6%
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.7% 16.0% 70.7% 6.1 3.6 5.8 8.3 9.9 10.4 10.7 10.1 9.1 7.5 5.6 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.3 84.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5