Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 278
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 309
Pace 68.5 184
Improvement -0.3 197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 185 D+ B- C D D
Defense D- 333 D- C- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 25% 365 C- 55% 251 -8.7 365
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 197 C 38% 186 +0.7 138
Three Pointers 53% 11 C- 33% 227 +5.3 33
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 324 C- -1.6 231
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 271
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 132 B- 1.10 78 B- 0.35 94
Turnovers C 17.3% 206
Freethrows D- 0.26 326 C- 71% 227 D 0.18 320
Total Offense C -0.8 185

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 168 C+ 10.3% 137
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 169 D+ 6.6% 280
Three Pointers D- 76% 327 B- 0.5% 95
Total C 56% 174 B 4.3% 44

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 190 D 64% 320 +2.1 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 158 F 49% 364 +2.5 341
Three Pointers 41% 193 D+ 36% 283 +1.2 244
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 149 F+ +5.7 357
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 344
Second Chance D+ 33.4% 296 C+ 1.00 142 C- 0.33 244
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 258
Freethrows D+ 0.34 283 C- 73% 232 D+ 0.25 282
Total Defense D- -6.0 333

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 302 C- 9.9% 216
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 163 C 4.7% 187
Three Pointers D+ 88% 290 D 0.1% 336
Total C- 58% 232 C- 4.8% 240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 315 16.1 24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 218 0.24 347
Improvement -0.2 #193 -0.1 #200

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 302 281 256
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 9 - 9
Conference Finish 9 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 9% 22% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 2%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 49 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 168 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 38% +0  47% 0 - 1 D- -12 D+ -3 A F C- F+ -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 14 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1% -19  2% 0 - 2 D -8 D- -6 D- C- C+ C -1 F+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 145 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 16% -16  0% 0 - 3 D -11 D- -7 D- B- F C- -2 D- C- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 175 Mercer L 83 - 95 39% -11  1% 0 - 4 F+ -16 C+ +2 D B B F -18 F F+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 195 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 23% -4  8% 0 - 5 D -10 D -5 F+ C+ C D -5 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 230 Wofford L 77 - 83 50% -8  5% 0 - 6 D- -13 D- -7 F A+ B- D -6 C C F
 Wed, Dec 3 99 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 9% -9  0% 0 - 7 C- -3 B +7 B- A- D+ F+ -9 F F C
 Wed, Dec 10 320 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 52% +5  80% 1 - 7 C+ +2 C +1 D+ C B- B- +2 C+ C- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 85 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 16% -9  3% 1 - 8 D+ -6 D -5 D- B- D- C- -2 C D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 200 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 24% +5  87% 2 - 8 C+ +4 D -5 F+ A F A +9 A- A D+
 Sun, Dec 21 97 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 9% -22  2% 2 - 9 F -23 F -10 F+ D A- F -14 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 204 @Queens L 89 - 91 25% -1  36% 2 - 10 0 - 1 C- -2 B+ +9 B- C- A+ F -11 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 318 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 49% +1  54% 2 - 11 0 - 2 F -19 D+ -2 D B+ B F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 340 North Alabama W 88 - 80 78% +3  81% 3 - 11 1 - 2 D+ -7 A- +10 D+ A+ A F -16 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 180 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 40% +1  52% 4 - 11 2 - 2 C -0 C +0 B- C+ B- C -1 F+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 154 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 18% -1  35% 4 - 12 2 - 3 C +1 B+ +8 A+ D F D- -7 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 17 287 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 63% +11  86% 5 - 12 3 - 3 B +10 A- +11 C+ A+ F+ C+ +1 A C- D+
 Thu, Jan 22 339 @North Florida L 85 - 87 58% -2  16% 5 - 13 3 - 4 D -11 C- -1 C- B D- F -10 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 308 @Jacksonville L 76 - 81 OT 46% +3  79% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D -11 C -0 D+ A+ F F -11 F F B
 Wed, Jan 28 154 Austin Peay L 82 - 90 36% -10  1% 5 - 15 3 - 6 D -11 C+ +2 F C+ A+ F -12 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 180 @Central Arkansas L 81 - 90 21% -8  1% 5 - 16 3 - 7 D+ -7 C -0 C+ F C D- -7 F+ C+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 253 Florida Gulf Coast W 76 - 74 55% -6  22% 6 - 16 4 - 7 D+ -6 D -5 D- A D C -1 D- A A-
 Sat, Feb 7 327 Stetson W 100 - 88 75% +0  51% 7 - 16 5 - 7 C- -2 A+ +16 B- A A F -18 F F D-
 Wed, Feb 11 190 @Lipscomb L 61 - 75 23% -8  18% 7 - 17 5 - 8 D- -13 F+ -9 D D- D D -5 D B- C
 Sun, Feb 15 340 @North Alabama L 78 - 84 OT 59% +1  49% 7 - 18 5 - 9 F+ -15 D- -7 F F A- D- -7 F C- B
 Wed, Feb 18 318 West Georgia W 81 - 80 OT 71% +3  69% 8 - 18 6 - 9 D- -12 F -11 F C+ C C -1 F B- C
 Sat, Feb 21 287 @Bellarmine L 78 - 81 40%
 Wed, Feb 25 204 Queens L 83 - 84 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 Lipscomb L 78 - 80 43%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -7 C -1 C+ C- D D- -6 C- C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C C- C- 25% 36% 53% D D+ C+ B- B- C D- C- D D- D F D+ F+ 38% 21% 41% C D- D+ C+ C- D+ D+ C- D+
1.07 55% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 32% 1.1 .35 17% .26 71% .18 1.17 64% 49% 36% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 16% .34 73% .19
Nov
10		 Western Kentucky D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 10% 42% 48% F A D F F C- F+ D- F F+ F F A F 42% 27% 32% B F B+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ C-
1.05 100% 64% 32% +13 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21 1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25
Nov
12		 Vanderbilt D- C+ C+ F D 13% 30% 57% F D- D B- C- C+ C- C C- C F D+ F F 39% 20% 41% C+ F+ D- A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+
0.85 57% 38% 23% -10 -3 0.76 23% 1.0 .23 19% .32 74% .24 1.26 78% 42% 42% +13 0 1.29 38% 0.6 .22 14% .25 63% .16
Nov
18		 Kent St. D- D+ B+ F D- 23% 13% 64% C- D- C+ B B- F B+ F C C- D- B- C D 48% 12% 40% F D- B- D- C- C+ F B F
0.96 54% 43% 28% -6 0 0.89 33% 1.1 .35 23% .38 63% .24 1.14 64% 33% 33% +2 +2 1.10 32% 1.2 .38 20% .56 70% .40
Nov
22		 Mercer C+ F C+ A+ C 19% 42% 39% F D A- C- B B C- B+ C+ F F D+ F F 30% 30% 40% A F F B- F+ B+ C+ D C
1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20 1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24
Nov
24		 Northern Kentucky D B A F D 16% 24% 59% F F+ C- B+ C+ C C F+ D+ D F A B- D+ 27% 22% 51% A C- C+ F F D+ D- F F
1.00 63% 50% 28% -2 -2 0.94 32% 1.3 .41 20% .33 63% .21 1.15 79% 27% 31% +1 -1 1.02 28% 1.7 .47 15% .35 86% .30
Nov
29		 Wofford D- D+ F F F 28% 20% 52% D- F B A+ A+ B- D B- D+ D D+ C- B C- 29% 20% 51% A- C D+ C+ C F F D+ F
1.07 53% 17% 29% -10 -1 0.82 36% 1.4 .51 14% .26 81% .21 1.15 60% 40% 31% -1 -1 0.98 30% 0.9 .28 8% .49 75% .36
Dec
3		 Illinois St. B C- D+ A- B 18% 30% 52% D- B- C+ A+ A- D+ A D B+ F+ B- F F F 41% 16% 43% D- F C- F F C D- F F
1.10 56% 33% 38% +2 -3 1.00 28% 1.3 .36 18% .40 65% .26 1.25 57% 63% 45% +11 +1 1.25 29% 1.6 .46 17% .34 80% .27
Dec
10		 Eastern Illinois C B- A+ F D+ 23% 13% 64% D D+ C C C B- F A+ D+ B- C- A+ B- C+ 39% 33% 28% C C+ C+ D C- C+ C F D
1.08 64% 67% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .38 17% .25 92% .23 0.94 56% 20% 31% -8 -1 0.83 24% 1.1 .27 19% .27 86% .24
Dec
13		 Miami (OH) D F+ D- B D+ 13% 31% 56% F D- A+ F B- D- A+ B- A+ C- D+ D- D+ C 38% 20% 43% C+ C C+ F D- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32 1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05
Dec
17		 Jacksonville St. D F D B- F 31% 13% 56% C F+ A C+ A F F A+ F+ A A- F A+ A 48% 14% 38% C A- C- A+ A D+ F F F
0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19 0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36
Dec
21		 Wichita St. F A+ F F D- 20% 34% 46% F+ F+ F A+ D A- F F F F D+ B C- D 54% 5% 41% F F+ C+ F F F A A+ A
0.85 82% 16% 27% -8 -3 0.80 15% 1.3 .20 13% .12 57% .07 1.31 60% 33% 35% +1 +3 1.11 38% 1.4 .54 10% .23 57% .13
Jan
1		 Queens B+ D+ C+ A B- 38% 9% 53% B- B- F A+ C- A+ D+ C- D+ F F A+ A+ C 53% 8% 40% F C- D+ F F F F D+ F
1.27 55% 40% 43% +6 +1 1.17 23% 1.5 .34 7% .32 71% .23 1.30 75% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.11 32% 1.5 .48 9% .49 77% .38
Jan
3		 West Georgia D+ C- A+ D- D 33% 9% 58% C D C- A+ B+ B F F F F D F A+ F 50% 30% 20% F F F C- F F+ F F+ F
1.09 58% 60% 30% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.3 .39 13% .17 50% .08 1.26 59% 63% 18% +3 0 1.07 41% 1.1 .44 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
8		 North Alabama A- F+ A C+ C- 28% 16% 56% D D+ A- A+ A+ A A A A+ F F F F F 26% 32% 43% A+ F A- F C- F+ F A+ D
1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32 1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25
Jan
10		 Central Arkansas C C+ F A B 15% 11% 75% D B- C B- C+ B- F F F C B- F D F 34% 15% 51% C F+ D- A+ A+ B C+ D- C
1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07 1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19
Jan
15		 Austin Peay B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 28% 47% F A+ B- F D F F F F D- C+ C C C 46% 17% 38% D C- F C+ F C- C- D+ D+
1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11 1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 Bellarmine A- A+ F A+ C+ 22% 13% 64% C- C+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ C+ D+ A+ A A 40% 12% 49% C A F A C- D+ F C- F
1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31 1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42
Jan
22		 North Florida C- D- D+ B+ D+ 43% 9% 48% B C- C- A+ B D- D+ F F F D- F D+ F 45% 12% 43% D- F F C+ F D+ D- B- D
1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12 1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22
Jan
24		 Jacksonville C D A- B- D+ 40% 24% 36% D+ D+ A A A+ F A+ C+ A+ F C+ F C- F 30% 43% 27% A+ F F D- F B F F+ F
1.11 56% 45% 38% +3 0 1.07 40% 1.2 .47 22% .52 71% .37 1.18 54% 63% 33% +9 -4 1.14 39% 1.2 .46 20% .55 77% .42
Jan
28		 Austin Peay C+ B- F D- F 25% 31% 44% F F A+ D- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F D+ F F 37% 29% 34% A- F B+ F D+ A+ F F F
1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37 1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Central Arkansas C F+ F A C 31% 4% 65% B C+ D+ F F C A+ C+ A+ D- C F D+ F+ 37% 15% 47% C- F+ A- F C+ F F A+ C
1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31 1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19
Feb
5		 Florida Gulf Coast D A+ F D- D 16% 22% 61% F D- B- A+ A D A B+ A+ C F D- B- F+ 21% 25% 54% B- D- C+ A+ A A- B- D C+
1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35 1.06 91% 46% 32% +8 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Stetson A+ B A+ D+ B- 35% 15% 51% C B- B- A+ A A A+ A+ A+ F A- F F F 39% 18% 43% D F F F+ F D- D- F F
1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 +1 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35 1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29
Feb
11		 Lipscomb F+ F A+ D+ D 33% 24% 43% C- D B- F D- D F F F D C F D+ D- 33% 8% 59% C D F A+ B- C C F D
0.93 47% 50% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 0.7 .24 20% .19 50% .10 1.15 59% 50% 37% +4 +1 1.12 34% 0.7 .23 17% .24 92% .22
Feb
15		 North Alabama D- D A+ F F 43% 5% 52% B+ F D- F F A- A+ F C+ D- D+ F D+ F 45% 14% 40% D+ F F A+ C- B F C F
1.05 54% 100% 22% -8 +2 0.90 29% 0.7 .20 11% .39 58% .23 1.13 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.10 42% 0.8 .33 20% .77 67% .52
Feb
18		 West Georgia F B- F F F 30% 30% 40% F F C B C+ C C- D- D C D- F B+ F 23% 40% 37% A- F B- C+ B- C F A+ C+
1.02 63% 26% 28% -6 -2 0.87 30% 1.1 .33 15% .31 67% .21 1.00 62% 57% 29% +5 -4 1.05 27% 1.0 .27 16% .36 50% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.6 10.9 7.0 18.4 5th
6th 10.3 17.7 1.7 29.7 6th
7th 0.7 18.6 2.2 21.4 7th
8th 5.1 9.6 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 11.3 1.4 12.7 9th
10th 3.0 3.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 20.0 40.5 30.8 8.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 8.7% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 8.3
8-10 30.8% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 1.0 29.8
7-11 40.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.8 39.7
6-12 20.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 19.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 7.9%