Arkansas
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#25
Expected Predictive Rating+15.9#23
Pace78.6#23
Improvement+0.0#179

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#24
First Shot+3.1#84
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#7
Layup/Dunks+6.0#27
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#333
Freethrows+2.9#35
Improvement-0.5#229

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#43
First Shot+2.6#95
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#21
Layups/Dunks+5.0#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#339
Freethrows+1.9#84
Improvement+0.6#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 8.6% 8.8% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 27.1% 27.7% 12.4%
Top 6 Seed 49.0% 49.9% 28.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.2% 86.7% 72.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.0% 85.6% 70.9%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 83.5% 72.8%
Conference Champion 10.6% 10.8% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four4.1% 4.0% 5.7%
First Round84.3% 84.9% 69.5%
Second Round56.2% 56.8% 38.9%
Sweet Sixteen27.4% 27.9% 15.8%
Elite Eight12.0% 12.2% 6.2%
Final Four5.1% 5.2% 2.8%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 1.3%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Charlotte (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 25 - 111 - 8
Quad 36 - 117 - 9
Quad 47 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 177   Mercer W 74-61 93%     1 - 0 +9.5 -1.9 +11.7
  Nov 13, 2021 216   Gardner-Webb W 86-69 95%     2 - 0 +12.0 +11.8 +0.1
  Nov 17, 2021 127   Northern Iowa W 93-80 90%     3 - 0 +12.5 +12.8 -1.4
  Nov 22, 2021 64   Kansas St. W 72-64 72%     4 - 0 +15.5 +3.0 +12.2
  Nov 23, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 73-67 69%     5 - 0 +14.4 +3.7 +10.3
  Nov 28, 2021 206   Penn W 76-60 94%     6 - 0 +11.2 -5.0 +15.3
  Dec 01, 2021 338   Central Arkansas W 97-60 99%     7 - 0 +21.1 -0.3 +15.5
  Dec 04, 2021 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 93-78 97%     8 - 0 +5.0 +12.9 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2021 220   Charlotte W 83-64 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 29   Oklahoma W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 18, 2021 125   Hofstra W 87-73 90%    
  Dec 21, 2021 289   Elon W 91-68 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 48   @ Mississippi St. W 74-73 53%    
  Jan 04, 2022 86   Vanderbilt W 80-70 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 76   @ Texas A&M W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 12, 2022 158   Missouri W 81-65 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 11   @ LSU L 75-81 29%    
  Jan 18, 2022 118   South Carolina W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 22, 2022 76   Texas A&M W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 61   @ Mississippi W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 43   West Virginia W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 02, 2022 150   @ Georgia W 82-73 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 08, 2022 16   Auburn W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 10   @ Alabama L 79-86 28%    
  Feb 15, 2022 158   @ Missouri W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 13   Tennessee W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 22, 2022 30   @ Florida L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 26, 2022 15   Kentucky W 78-77 54%    
  Mar 02, 2022 11   LSU L 77-78 49%    
  Mar 05, 2022 13   @ Tennessee L 73-78 32%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 10.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.4 1.3 0.2 12.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.4 4.6 1.1 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 5.7 1.3 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.4 2.1 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 2.7 0.2 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.5 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.8 11.0 13.5 15.3 15.0 11.7 8.6 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 92.1% 2.1    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 72.7% 3.6    2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.6% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.5% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 5.5 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.2% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 5.0% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.4 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.6% 99.9% 16.9% 83.0% 3.3 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.7% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 4.3 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.0% 99.6% 9.0% 90.6% 5.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 3.9 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
11-7 15.3% 98.3% 6.0% 92.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.5 3.4 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 98.1%
10-8 13.5% 93.6% 3.5% 90.1% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.8 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.9 93.4%
9-9 11.0% 83.5% 2.1% 81.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 1.8 83.2%
8-10 7.8% 58.6% 1.9% 56.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 57.8%
7-11 4.7% 28.6% 0.9% 27.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 28.0%
6-12 2.6% 8.6% 0.7% 7.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 7.9%
5-13 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.5%
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 86.2% 8.1% 78.1% 6.1 3.2 5.4 8.5 10.0 10.9 11.0 9.8 8.7 7.0 5.4 4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.8 85.0%