Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#23
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#24
Pace75.4#42
Improvement+1.9#71

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#18
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#39
Layup/Dunks+3.5#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#144
Freethrows+2.8#35
Improvement+3.1#17

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#40
First Shot+8.8#10
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#351
Layups/Dunks-1.4#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#14
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement-1.1#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 22.2% 22.5% 7.8%
Top 6 Seed 51.1% 51.7% 31.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.1% 88.5% 72.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.3% 87.7% 71.7%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.1
.500 or above 96.8% 97.1% 85.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.1% 77.5% 62.3%
Conference Champion 8.8% 8.9% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 2.9%
First Four4.6% 4.5% 9.1%
First Round86.0% 86.5% 67.6%
Second Round60.7% 61.2% 44.1%
Sweet Sixteen26.1% 26.4% 16.7%
Elite Eight9.6% 9.7% 5.7%
Final Four3.5% 3.5% 2.5%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 112 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 222 Southern W 109-77 97%     1 - 0 +25.2 +18.9 +1.9
  Sat, Nov 8 16 @Michigan St. L 66-69 31%     1 - 1 +17.4 +7.2 +10.2
  Tue, Nov 11 282 Central Arkansas W 93-56 98%     2 - 1 +27.5 +11.9 +13.5
  Fri, Nov 14 227 Samford W 79-75 97%     3 - 1 -3.0 -0.6 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 18 125 Winthrop W 84-83 92%     4 - 1 +0.3 +5.7 -5.4
  Fri, Nov 21 324 Jackson St. W 115-61 99%     5 - 1 +41.2 +28.2 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 27 4 Duke L 71-80 26%     5 - 2 +12.9 +9.2 +3.7
  Wed, Dec 3 13 Louisville W 89-80 51%     6 - 2 +23.9 +14.8 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 184 Fresno St. W 82-58 96%     7 - 2 +19.3 +3.7 +14.6
  Sat, Dec 13 24 Texas Tech W 93-86 50%     8 - 2 +22.2 +29.9 -7.3
  Tue, Dec 16 211 Queens W 108-80 97%     9 - 2 +21.7 +13.7 +4.6
  Sat, Dec 20 8 Houston L 85-94 31%     9 - 3 +11.3 +18.7 -7.0
  Mon, Dec 29 198 James Madison W 89-68 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 14 Tennessee W 77-76 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 63 @Mississippi W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 34 @Auburn L 82-83 46%    
  Wed, Jan 14 90 South Carolina W 83-71 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 22 @Georgia L 88-92 37%    
  Tue, Jan 20 9 Vanderbilt L 82-84 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 39 LSU W 84-78 70%    
  Tue, Jan 27 45 @Oklahoma W 83-82 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 Kentucky W 82-80 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 80 @Mississippi St. W 82-77 69%    
  Tue, Feb 10 39 @LSU L 81-82 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 34 Auburn W 85-80 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 15 @Alabama L 89-94 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 60 Missouri W 87-78 80%    
  Wed, Feb 25 43 Texas A&M W 88-82 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 12 @Florida L 78-84 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 41 Texas W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 60 @Missouri W 84-81 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.9 3.5 0.7 0.1 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 5.4 1.4 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.1 2.7 0.2 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 4.2 0.5 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 4.6 1.3 0.1 7.4 8th
9th 0.4 3.3 2.7 0.2 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 3.3 0.6 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.3 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 3.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.1 9.7 12.8 14.3 14.7 13.3 10.0 6.6 3.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.2% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 94.4% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 74.8% 2.5    1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.0% 3.0    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.7% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.4 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.4% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.9 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.6% 99.9% 14.5% 85.5% 3.6 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 10.0% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.3% 99.9% 9.9% 90.0% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 4.7 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 14.7% 99.8% 6.2% 93.7% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 5.1 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.3% 99.1% 3.5% 95.5% 6.9 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.7 4.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 12.8% 96.0% 2.1% 93.9% 7.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.5 95.9%
8-10 9.7% 83.4% 1.4% 81.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.7 1.8 0.0 1.6 83.1%
7-11 6.1% 49.9% 1.1% 48.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 49.3%
6-12 3.9% 13.3% 0.8% 12.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.4 12.6%
5-13 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0%
4-14 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 88.1% 6.6% 81.5% 6.2 0.8 2.7 7.6 11.1 14.2 14.8 12.4 9.4 6.1 4.7 4.0 0.2 0.0 11.9 87.3%