Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.2 #21
Expected Predictive Rating +18.0 #18
Pace 76.3 #36
Improvement +3.7 #27

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #15 B+ A- A+ A+ C
Defense #39 A A- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #155 1.35 #26 +4.1 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.69 #262 -0.1 #181
Three Pointers 39% #227 1.16 #30 +1.6 #124
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #47 +5.7 #46
Freethrows 20.5 #45 75% #116 15.3 #35
Second Chance 35.5% #58 1.28 #9 0.45 #19
Turnovers 12.7% #9
Total Offense +10.2 #15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #190 1.07 #83 +1.8 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.69 #111 +0.2 #177
Three Pointers 40% #214 0.78 #4 +5.2 #26
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #19 +7.2 #18
Freethrows 14.5 #53 66% #12 9.5 #28
Second Chance 29.0% #123 1.31 #360 0.38 #308
Turnovers 17.1% #156
Total Defense +6.1 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #215 -0.3% #134
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.5% #34 -13.8% #11
Possession Length 14.6 #13 18.3 #331
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.36 #2 0.16 #121
Improvement +3.7 #11 +0.0 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 6.2% 7.9% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 35.1% 40.8% 22.5%
Top 6 Seed 68.2% 73.9% 55.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.0% 96.9% 90.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.5% 96.6% 90.3%
Average Seed 5.4 5.1 6.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 91.2% 76.6%
Conference Champion 10.6% 13.4% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four2.8% 1.9% 4.7%
First Round93.8% 96.0% 89.0%
Second Round72.3% 76.0% 64.2%
Sweet Sixteen34.6% 37.6% 28.2%
Elite Eight13.1% 14.2% 10.5%
Final Four4.7% 5.3% 3.3%
Championship Game1.6% 1.9% 1.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 68.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 254 Southern W 109-77 98%     20.5   1 - 0 +23.6 +17.8 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 8 13 @Michigan St. L 66-69 32%     -1.8   1 - 1 +18.2 +8.8 +9.3
  Tue, Nov 11 253 Central Arkansas W 93-56 98%     15.9   2 - 1 +28.6 +10.4 +16.1
  Fri, Nov 14 227 Samford W 79-75 97%     7.5   3 - 1 -2.7 -0.5 -2.3
  Tue, Nov 18 151 Winthrop W 84-83 95%     0.9   4 - 1 -1.7 +5.1 -6.8
  Fri, Nov 21 342 Jackson St. W 115-61 99%     29.9   5 - 1 +39.5 +25.6 +9.5
  Thu, Nov 27 8 Duke L 71-80 35%     -0.8   5 - 2 +11.3 +6.9 +4.4
  Wed, Dec 3 14 Louisville W 89-80 54%     9.6   6 - 2 +24.1 +14.3 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 6 171 Fresno St. W 82-58 96%     15.4   7 - 2 +20.0 +5.4 +13.6
  Sat, Dec 13 19 Texas Tech W 93-86 49%     -2.5   8 - 2 +23.4 +30.8 -7.1
  Tue, Dec 16 225 Queens W 108-80 97%     20.2   9 - 2 +21.4 +12.9 +5.1
  Sat, Dec 20 11 Houston L 85-94 37%     -10.1   9 - 3 +10.5 +18.4 -7.4
  Mon, Dec 29 192 James Madison W 103-74 97%     16.5   10 - 3 +23.8 +25.3 -1.4
  Sat, Jan 3 16 Tennessee W 86-75 58%     1.4   11 - 3 1 - 0 +25.1 +15.7 +8.7
  Wed, Jan 7 70 @Mississippi W 79-74 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 30 @Auburn L 83-84 46%    
  Wed, Jan 14 87 South Carolina W 84-71 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 20 @Georgia L 89-92 38%    
  Tue, Jan 20 7 Vanderbilt L 84-85 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 38 LSU W 84-78 72%    
  Tue, Jan 27 43 @Oklahoma W 83-82 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 22 Kentucky W 83-79 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 67 @Mississippi St. W 84-79 67%    
  Tue, Feb 10 38 @LSU W 82-81 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 30 Auburn W 86-81 68%    
  Tue, Feb 17 12 @Alabama L 89-94 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 55 Missouri W 88-78 82%    
  Wed, Feb 25 42 Texas A&M W 89-82 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 15 @Florida L 79-83 34%    
  Wed, Mar 4 45 Texas W 88-80 76%    
  Sat, Mar 7 55 @Missouri W 85-81 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 10.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.8 4.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.2 4.8 1.1 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.4 5.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 5.5 1.4 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.2 2.4 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 3.5 0.4 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.1 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.0 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.9 10.7 14.2 15.7 15.7 13.3 8.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.1% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 87.1% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 65.4% 3.3    2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.5% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.8% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.6% 10.6 5.3 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.2% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.8 0.4 1.4 2.3 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 8.9% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.4 0.2 1.2 3.6 3.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.3% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 4.0 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-6 15.7% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 5.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 100.0%
11-7 15.7% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 5.5 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.2 5.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.2% 99.5% 3.8% 95.7% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.4 4.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 10.7% 97.7% 2.3% 95.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.6%
8-10 6.9% 88.0% 1.2% 86.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.8 87.9%
7-11 3.9% 61.0% 1.2% 59.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.0 1.5 60.6%
6-12 1.8% 17.5% 0.6% 16.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.5 17.0%
5-13 0.6% 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.0% 8.6% 86.4% 5.4 1.3 5.0 12.5 16.4 18.1 15.0 11.1 6.4 3.9 2.8 2.5 0.1 5.0 94.5%