Arkansas
Southeastern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.9#18
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#49
Pace73.7#49
Improvement-1.3#327

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#51
First Shot+6.2#31
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#261
Layup/Dunks+7.2#7
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#325
Freethrows+3.0#18
Improvement-0.7#292

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#12
First Shot+6.6#23
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#24
Layups/Dunks+2.1#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#5
Freethrows-1.0#264
Improvement-0.7#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.4% 6.9% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 22.5% 23.8% 9.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.3% 79.8% 63.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.9% 77.5% 60.1%
Average Seed 7.8 7.7 8.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 75.8% 43.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.0% 8.7% 11.7%
First Round74.7% 76.3% 58.9%
Second Round47.5% 48.9% 34.2%
Sweet Sixteen21.6% 22.3% 14.6%
Elite Eight10.4% 10.7% 7.1%
Final Four4.6% 4.8% 2.9%
Championship Game1.9% 2.0% 1.1%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 8
Quad 25 - 28 - 10
Quad 37 - 115 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 76-58 96%     1 - 0 +11.1 -5.1 +15.4
  Nov 11, 2022 132   Fordham W 74-48 91%     2 - 0 +25.2 +1.2 +23.2
  Nov 16, 2022 200   South Dakota St. W 71-56 94%     3 - 0 +10.8 -11.2 +20.2
  Nov 21, 2022 248   Louisville W 80-54 95%     4 - 0 +21.5 +5.7 +15.6
  Nov 22, 2022 11   Creighton L 87-90 44%     4 - 1 +12.4 +13.6 -0.9
  Nov 23, 2022 33   San Diego St. W 78-74 OT 57%     5 - 1 +16.2 -0.6 +16.2
  Nov 28, 2022 149   Troy W 74-61 92%     6 - 1 +11.2 +4.7 +7.0
  Dec 03, 2022 119   San Jose St. W 99-58 90%     7 - 1 +41.0 +23.0 +17.3
  Dec 06, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro W 65-58 91%     8 - 1 +6.0 -6.8 +12.4
  Dec 10, 2022 43   Oklahoma W 88-78 63%     9 - 1 +20.5 +22.0 -1.3
  Dec 17, 2022 89   Bradley W 76-57 85%     10 - 1 +21.9 +4.3 +17.1
  Dec 21, 2022 188   UNC Asheville W 85-51 94%     11 - 1 +30.1 +11.4 +18.9
  Dec 28, 2022 106   @ LSU L 57-60 76%     11 - 2 0 - 1 +3.6 -10.0 +13.5
  Jan 04, 2023 46   Missouri W 74-68 74%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +13.3 +4.2 +9.5
  Jan 07, 2023 27   @ Auburn L 59-72 44%     12 - 3 1 - 2 +2.6 -2.7 +4.8
  Jan 11, 2023 2   Alabama L 69-84 41%     12 - 4 1 - 3 +1.3 -0.8 +3.4
  Jan 14, 2023 97   @ Vanderbilt L 84-97 73%     12 - 5 1 - 4 -5.4 +14.6 -20.2
  Jan 18, 2023 46   @ Missouri L 76-79 54%     12 - 6 1 - 5 +9.8 +2.6 +7.2
  Jan 21, 2023 95   Mississippi W 69-57 86%     13 - 6 2 - 5 +14.3 +0.2 +14.4
  Jan 24, 2023 106   LSU W 60-40 88%     14 - 6 3 - 5 +21.1 -4.0 +27.7
  Jan 28, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 64-67 36%     14 - 7 +14.5 +3.4 +10.7
  Jan 31, 2023 42   Texas A&M W 81-70 72%     15 - 7 4 - 5 +18.9 +8.6 +10.0
  Feb 04, 2023 229   @ South Carolina W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 07, 2023 32   @ Kentucky L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 55   Mississippi St. W 67-60 76%    
  Feb 15, 2023 42   @ Texas A&M W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 40   Florida W 71-66 70%    
  Feb 21, 2023 103   Georgia W 77-65 88%    
  Feb 25, 2023 2   @ Alabama L 72-80 22%    
  Feb 28, 2023 3   @ Tennessee L 63-71 24%    
  Mar 04, 2023 32   Kentucky W 73-69 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 2.6 0.3 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.8 1.4 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 5.4 0.2 12.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 10.9 1.9 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 11.8 6.3 0.2 20.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 9.8 10.3 1.0 22.7 8th
9th 0.3 3.3 5.1 0.7 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.9 7.4 17.6 26.7 25.8 15.0 4.7 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.7% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.7% 99.9% 12.3% 87.5% 3.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 15.0% 99.0% 12.1% 86.9% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 4.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.8%
10-8 25.8% 95.6% 10.8% 84.9% 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 7.1 6.6 4.1 1.3 0.1 1.1 95.1%
9-9 26.7% 84.4% 9.5% 74.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 6.5 6.7 2.2 0.0 4.2 82.7%
8-10 17.6% 52.6% 8.3% 44.3% 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.6 4.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 48.3%
7-11 7.4% 19.8% 6.7% 13.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 14.1%
6-12 1.9% 7.3% 6.8% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.6%
5-13 0.3% 9.6% 9.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 78.3% 9.9% 68.4% 7.8 0.2 0.7 1.6 4.0 6.3 9.8 11.8 12.2 11.7 11.7 7.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.7 75.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 2.0 27.7 47.7 20.7 4.0