Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#33
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#51
Pace74.7#50
Improvement-1.7#287

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#50
First Shot+5.5#44
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks+5.8#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#166
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#19
First Shot+6.0#26
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#107
Layups/Dunks+3.2#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#273
Freethrows+2.7#40
Improvement-2.0#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 2.9% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 11.8% 12.0% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 26.3% 26.7% 12.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.4% 63.0% 42.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.6% 62.2% 41.8%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 7.9
.500 or above 88.1% 88.7% 68.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.5% 52.9% 38.9%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 5.3% 10.6%
First Four5.9% 5.9% 5.4%
First Round59.7% 60.3% 39.8%
Second Round38.2% 38.6% 23.2%
Sweet Sixteen16.3% 16.5% 7.5%
Elite Eight6.8% 6.9% 3.2%
Final Four2.8% 2.9% 1.0%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 11
Quad 25 - 210 - 13
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 105   Lipscomb W 76-60 86%     1 - 0 +17.1 -0.6 +16.7
  Nov 09, 2024 13   Baylor L 67-72 40%     1 - 1 +10.4 +3.6 +6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 125   Troy W 65-49 89%     2 - 1 +15.1 -6.5 +22.0
  Nov 18, 2024 277   Pacific W 91-72 97%     3 - 1 +9.7 +8.3 +0.0
  Nov 22, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-67 96%     4 - 1 +5.1 -1.6 +5.7
  Nov 25, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 109-35 99%     5 - 1 +56.8 +19.3 +31.6
  Nov 28, 2024 14   Illinois L 77-90 40%     5 - 2 +2.3 +9.1 -6.5
  Dec 03, 2024 87   @ Miami (FL) W 76-73 63%     6 - 2 +12.2 +5.3 +7.0
  Dec 07, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 89-69 97%    
  Dec 10, 2024 16   Michigan L 73-75 42%    
  Dec 14, 2024 337   Central Arkansas W 86-60 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 311   N.C. A&T W 93-69 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 144   Oakland W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 08, 2025 26   Mississippi W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 10   Florida L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 14, 2025 47   @ LSU L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 63   @ Missouri W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 22, 2025 38   Georgia W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 41   Oklahoma W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 77-85 24%    
  Feb 05, 2025 34   @ Texas L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 5   Alabama L 82-85 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 47   LSU W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 74-85 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 63   Missouri W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 26, 2025 34   Texas W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 04, 2025 67   @ Vanderbilt W 79-78 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 15   Mississippi St. W 77-76 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.6 4.3 3.3 0.3 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 5.0 1.0 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.5 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.3 3.1 3.9 0.4 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.5 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.6 0.1 6.6 12th
13th 0.2 1.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 5.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.2 0.1 5.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.6 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.4 11.6 13.7 14.1 12.7 10.2 7.2 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.8% 0.3    0.3 0.1
15-3 71.7% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.9% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.4% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 3.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.6% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 3.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.2% 99.9% 5.7% 94.3% 4.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 10.2% 99.5% 2.8% 96.8% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.5%
10-8 12.7% 96.6% 1.7% 94.8% 7.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.2 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.4 96.5%
9-9 14.1% 88.0% 1.2% 86.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.0 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.0 1.7 87.8%
8-10 13.7% 60.5% 0.4% 60.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.6 0.2 5.4 60.3%
7-11 11.6% 26.5% 0.4% 26.2% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.3 8.5 26.3%
6-12 9.4% 6.8% 0.1% 6.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.7 6.6%
5-13 6.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.6%
4-14 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 62.4% 2.1% 60.3% 7.0 0.8 2.0 3.6 5.4 7.0 7.6 8.8 8.3 7.0 5.6 5.7 0.7 37.6 61.6%