IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+17.0	#15
Expected Predictive Rating	+7.7	#31

Pace	73.4	#62
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+9.0	#17

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.1	#15

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.0%	2.9%	1.1%
#1 Seed	9.4%	13.7%	5.5%
Top 2 Seed	21.2%	29.4%	13.8%
Top 4 Seed	45.2%	57.3%	34.1%
Top 6 Seed	63.5%	75.1%	53.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	84.4%	92.0%	77.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	82.5%	90.6%	75.6%
Average Seed	4.7	4.1	5.3

.500 or above	92.1%	96.7%	88.0%
.500 or above in Conference	79.3%	85.6%	73.6%
Conference Champion	15.3%	19.6%	11.5%
Last Place in Conference	1.4%	0.8%	1.9%

First Four	3.7%	2.5%	4.8%
First Round	82.9%	90.9%	75.7%
Second Round	67.9%	77.4%	59.2%
Sweet Sixteen	39.5%	48.2%	31.7%
Elite Eight	19.6%	25.0%	14.6%
Final Four	9.5%	12.7%	6.6%
Championship Game	4.4%	6.4%	2.5%
National Champion	1.9%	2.8%	1.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 47.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 7	4 - 7
Quad 1b	4 - 2	8 - 9
Quad 2	5 - 1	13 - 11
Quad 3	3 - 0	16 - 11
Quad 4	6 - 0	22 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	196	Southern	W	109-77	97%	1 - 0			+26.7	+20.6	+1.8
Nov 08, 2025	24	@ Michigan St.	L	73-74	48%
Nov 11, 2025	360	Central Arkansas	W	90-56	99.9%
Nov 14, 2025	182	Samford	W	91-69	98%
Nov 18, 2025	153	Winthrop	W	91-71	97%
Nov 21, 2025	262	Jackson St.	W	88-63	99%
Nov 27, 2025	3	Duke	L	71-76	34%
Dec 03, 2025	8	Louisville	W	80-79	55%
Dec 06, 2025	202	Fresno St.	W	89-67	98%
Dec 13, 2025	16	Texas Tech	W	75-74	50%
Dec 16, 2025	245	Queens	W	89-65	98%
Dec 20, 2025	1	Houston	L	64-71	28%
Dec 28, 2025	138	James Madison	W	82-63	95%
Jan 03, 2026	17	Tennessee	W	71-67	62%
Jan 07, 2026	30	@ Mississippi	W	75-74	51%
Jan 10, 2026	35	@ Auburn	W	77-76	53%
Jan 14, 2026	77	South Carolina	W	78-65	86%
Jan 17, 2026	39	@ Georgia	W	75-74	55%
Jan 20, 2026	31	Vanderbilt	W	82-76	71%
Jan 24, 2026	56	LSU	W	80-70	81%
Jan 27, 2026	48	@ Oklahoma	W	78-75	58%
Jan 31, 2026	7	Kentucky	W	80-79	54%
Feb 07, 2026	32	@ Mississippi St.	W	76-75	53%
Feb 10, 2026	56	@ LSU	W	77-73	64%
Feb 14, 2026	35	Auburn	W	80-73	72%
Feb 17, 2026	19	@ Alabama	L	84-86	43%
Feb 21, 2026	37	Missouri	W	81-74	72%
Feb 25, 2026	40	Texas A&M	W	77-70	73%
Feb 28, 2026	6	@ Florida	L	76-82	31%
Mar 04, 2026	38	Texas	W	78-71	72%
Mar 07, 2026	37	@ Missouri	W	78-77	53%
Projected Record						21 - 10	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southeastern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	1.2	3.3	4.3	3.8	2.0	0.6		15.3	1st
2nd												0.1	1.5	4.7	4.6	2.1	0.5	0.0			13.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	1.2	4.5	4.5	1.5	0.2					12.0	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.8	4.5	1.2	0.1						10.1	4th
5th										0.1	2.3	4.2	1.5	0.1							8.1	5th
6th									0.0	1.1	4.2	2.2	0.2								7.7	6th
7th									0.2	2.8	3.0	0.4	0.0								6.4	7th
8th								0.0	1.3	3.2	0.9	0.0									5.5	8th
9th								0.4	2.6	1.7	0.1										4.9	9th
10th							0.1	1.3	2.4	0.4											4.1	10th
11th						0.0	0.7	1.9	0.9	0.0											3.5	11th
12th						0.2	1.2	1.3	0.1												2.9	12th
13th				0.0	0.1	0.8	1.2	0.3	0.0												2.4	13th
14th				0.1	0.4	0.9	0.4	0.0													1.8	14th
15th		0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0														1.2	15th
16th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0															0.6	16th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	2.3	3.7	5.2	7.5	9.4	11.1	11.8	12.3	11.6	9.5	6.6	4.3	2.1	0.6			Total

Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.6		0.6
17-1	98.8%	2.0		1.9	0.2
16-2	89.2%	3.8		2.9	0.9	0.0
15-3	65.2%	4.3		2.5	1.5	0.3	0.0
14-4	34.5%	3.3		1.1	1.5	0.6	0.1
13-5	9.9%	1.2		0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0							0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.3%	15.3		9.1	4.5	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.6%		100.0%	51.3%	48.7%	1.2		0.5	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	2.1%		100.0%	40.5%	59.5%	1.3		1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0														100.0%
16-2	4.3%		100.0%	33.1%	66.9%	1.6		2.3	1.6	0.3	0.1	0.0														100.0%
15-3	6.6%		100.0%	27.7%	72.3%	2.0		2.3	2.7	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
14-4	9.5%		100.0%	21.5%	78.5%	2.6		1.8	3.1	2.8	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0												100.0%
13-5	11.6%		100.0%	15.7%	84.3%	3.3		0.7	2.4	3.6	2.9	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0									0.0		99.9%
12-6	12.3%		100.0%	10.5%	89.5%	4.2		0.2	1.0	2.7	3.5	2.7	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.0		100.0%
11-7	11.8%		99.2%	5.4%	93.8%	5.3		0.1	0.3	1.3	2.3	2.8	2.5	1.3	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0						0.1		99.2%
10-8	11.1%		96.8%	3.8%	93.0%	6.5		0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.9	2.4	2.3	1.4	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0					0.4		96.7%
9-9	9.4%		86.4%	2.1%	84.2%	7.7				0.1	0.2	0.6	1.2	1.6	1.6	1.2	1.0	0.5						1.3		86.1%
8-10	7.5%		63.1%	1.2%	61.9%	9.0				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.8	1.0	1.2	0.9	0.0					2.8		62.6%
7-11	5.2%		33.9%	0.4%	33.5%	9.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.1					3.4		33.7%
6-12	3.7%		7.7%		7.7%	10.6									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0					3.4		7.7%
5-13	2.3%		2.2%	0.9%	1.3%	11.6											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				2.3		1.3%
4-14	1.2%		0.9%		0.9%	11.0											0.0		0.0					1.1		0.9%
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		84.4%	10.9%	73.5%	4.7		9.4	11.8	12.4	11.6	9.9	8.4	6.5	4.8	3.5	3.5	2.4	0.1	0.0				15.6		82.5%