Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.4#349
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#326
Pace68.8#203
Improvement-1.2#261

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#336
First Shot-5.5#332
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks-4.3#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#146
Freethrows-2.3#314
Improvement-0.5#217

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#344
First Shot-5.6#344
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks-1.4#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#362
Freethrows+2.4#43
Improvement-0.7#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.3% 18.1% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 39.1% 20.2% 42.6%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 16.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 47 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 119 @Rhode Island L 62-93 5%     0 - 1 -24.9 -10.6 -12.7
  Mon, Nov 10 35 @Miami (FL) L 61-102 1%     0 - 2 -24.8 -10.3 -9.9
  Sun, Nov 16 299 @Western Carolina L 65-76 23%     0 - 3 -15.5 -12.1 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 19 265 Howard W 64-60 36%     1 - 3 -4.7 -9.3 +4.7
  Sat, Nov 22 332 VMI W 99-80 54%     2 - 3 +5.7 +23.1 -16.3
  Tue, Nov 25 153 Wright St. L 62-79 18%     2 - 4 -19.6 -6.3 -14.7
  Sat, Nov 29 319 Southern Utah L 68-70 38%     2 - 5 -11.4 -7.4 -4.0
  Sun, Nov 30 185 @Robert Morris L 62-80 11%     2 - 6 -16.7 -1.4 -18.0
  Tue, Dec 2 87 @Grand Canyon L 45-67 3%     2 - 7 -12.4 -18.7 +5.0
  Sat, Dec 6 90 @South Carolina L 51-82 3%     2 - 8 -21.8 -11.7 -13.2
  Mon, Dec 22 45 @Oklahoma L 54-107 2%     2 - 9 -38.7 -13.1 -27.0
  Thu, Jan 1 244 @North Alabama L 66-77 16%    
  Sat, Jan 3 282 @Central Arkansas L 68-77 20%    
  Thu, Jan 8 144 Lipscomb L 69-80 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 195 Austin Peay L 67-74 26%    
  Thu, Jan 15 316 West Georgia L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 211 Queens L 76-82 28%    
  Thu, Jan 22 144 @Lipscomb L 66-83 6%    
  Sat, Jan 24 195 @Austin Peay L 64-77 12%    
  Thu, Jan 29 350 @North Florida L 80-83 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 244 North Alabama L 69-74 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 267 @Bellarmine L 70-80 19%    
  Sat, Feb 7 259 @Eastern Kentucky L 69-79 18%    
  Thu, Feb 12 317 Jacksonville L 69-70 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-83 11%    
  Thu, Feb 19 282 Central Arkansas L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 350 North Florida W 83-80 61%    
  Thu, Feb 26 317 @Jacksonville L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 186 Florida Gulf Coast L 72-80 24%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.2 2.1 0.1 8.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 5.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.4 3.0 7.0 5.3 1.2 0.0 17.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 5.1 8.9 6.6 1.4 0.1 23.4 11th
12th 1.0 4.2 7.6 8.2 4.6 1.0 0.1 26.7 12th
Total 1.0 4.3 8.9 13.8 16.7 16.7 13.9 10.6 6.9 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 45.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-9 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
8-10 6.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 6.9
7-11 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 16.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.7
4-14 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.7
3-15 13.8% 13.8
2-16 8.9% 8.9
1-17 4.3% 4.3
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%