Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -9.8 321
Results Rating -9.1 314
Consistency 0.14 132
Pace 67.7 204
Improvement +4.6 35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 260 C- D+ D D+ C-
Defense D- 337 D D- D C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 320 C 57% 190 -3.3 299
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 192 C- 37% 217 -0.1 181
Three Pointers 46% 88 C 34% 195 +2.2 101
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 247 C- -0.8 197
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 215
Second Chance D 25.6% 312 C 1.02 198 D+ 0.26 293
Opponents' Steals D- 11.4% 329
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 210
Turnovers D 18.8% 305
Freethrows D+ 0.28 253 D 69% 290 D+ 0.19 282
Total Offense D+ -3.4 260

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 57% 49 C- 11.6% 222
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 185 B 2.9% 43
Three Pointers C+ 86% 138 C 0.9% 189
Total B 62% 59 B- 4.9% 99


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 136 F+ 66% 347 +4.0 314
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 246 D 42% 312 -0.1 180
Three Pointers 41% 158 C- 35% 218 +0.7 222
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 243 D- +4.1 331
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 329
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 286 D- 1.16 332 D- 0.38 331
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 265
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 320
Turnovers D 14.6% 312
Freethrows B- 0.28 107 C- 73% 243 C+ 0.20 119
Total Defense D- -6.4 337

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 178 F+ 4.9% 356
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 330 D+ 3.0% 295
Three Pointers D 88% 309 D- 0.0% 352
Total C- 58% 248 F+ 2.5% 355

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 269 16.5 42
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 248 0.19 261
Consistency 0.13 195 0.14 283
Improvement +5.2 8 -0.6 220

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 323 318 310
Results Rating Rank 322 318 292
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 11
Quad 49 - 1010 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 136 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 10% -17  0% 0 - 1 F -26 F -12 D- F F F -13 F+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 35 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  22% 0 - 2 F -24 F -14 F C D D -6 F+ A C-
 Sun, Nov 16 230 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 20% -8  9% 0 - 3 D- -12 F -16 F C- B- B +5 F A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 182 Howard W 64 - 60 31% +10  97% 1 - 3 C -1 F+ -9 D- F F A- +8 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 358 VMI W 99 - 80 81% +9  89% 2 - 3 C -0 A+ +18 A+ B+ C+ F -17 F+ F F
 Tue, Nov 25 161 Wright St. L 62 - 79 26% -15  7% 2 - 4 F -20 F -11 D- C+ F+ F -10 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 29 264 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 35% +3  66% 2 - 5 D+ -8 F+ -10 D+ C F B- +2 C- C+ C-
 Sun, Nov 30 158 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 12% -12  5% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D+ -4 F+ C- B+ F -14 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 62 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  11% 2 - 7 D -10 F -18 F+ D- F A- +7 B+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 95 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 5% -15  9% 2 - 8 F -22 F -15 F D- A F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 46 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  1% 2 - 9 F -38 F -16 F D+ F F -23 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 343 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 49% +0  53% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -6 D -6 B F F C -1 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 170 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 13% -13  7% 3 - 10 1 - 1 F+ -18 C +0 B C- D- F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 194 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 33% +11  96% 4 - 10 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 A F B+ D+ -4 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 178 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 29% -7  5% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -8 F+ B- D D- -8 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 308 West Georgia W 95 - 86 57% +4  91% 5 - 11 3 - 2 C- -3 A- +10 A+ D+ F F -13 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 201 Queens L 81 - 87 33% -8  0% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D -11 C- -2 C+ D C- F+ -10 D+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 194 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 16% -5  11% 5 - 13 3 - 4 C- -4 F -10 D F F B+ +7 B A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 178 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 14% -0  54% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D+ -6 D- -6 D F+ C C -0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 341 @North Florida W 84 - 77 48% +6  93% 6 - 14 4 - 5 C- -2 C +1 C F A- C- -3 C+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 343 North Alabama L 66 - 68 71% -3  10% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -17 F+ -10 F B D- D- -8 F C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 285 @Bellarmine L 71 - 92 29% -11  5% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -25 D -4 D+ B+ D F -24 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 288 @Eastern Kentucky L 88 - 100 29% -0  40% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F+ -16 B +6 C+ B- C- F -23 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 293 Jacksonville W 67 - 62 54% +5  87% 7 - 17 5 - 8 D+ -6 D -5 D+ F+ C C +0 A D D-
 Sat, Feb 14 269 @Florida Gulf Coast L 76 - 78 26% -0  48% 7 - 18 5 - 9 D+ -5 C +1 C B- C D -6 D D C-
 Thu, Feb 19 170 Central Arkansas L 76 - 88 28% -15  0% 7 - 19 5 - 10 F+ -16 C+ +3 A+ B F F -19 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 341 North Florida W 76 - 71 70% -3  29% 8 - 19 6 - 10 D -10 D+ -4 A- F F D -6 D+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 26 293 @Jacksonville L 85 - 89 31% -7  1% 8 - 20 6 - 11 D -9 A- +11 A+ F+ B+ F -20 C+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 269 Florida Gulf Coast W 78 - 63 47% +7  95% 9 - 20 7 - 11 B- +6 C +1 A+ A F B+ +6 C+ A+ F+
 Wed, Mar 4 288 Eastern Kentucky L 77 - 80 40%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 11 -10 D+ -3 A C- C- D- -6 C D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- C C- 33% 37% 46% C- C- D C D+ D D+ D D+ D- F+ D C- D- 40% 19% 41% C- D D+ D- D- D B- C- C+
1.04 57% 37% 34% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .28 69% .19 1.18 66% 42% 35% +4 0 1.11 33% 1.2 .38 15% .28 73% .21
Nov
3		 Rhode Island F F B+ D- D- 38% 15% 48% C+ D- D+ F F F B+ F D+ F F F A F 40% 16% 44% C F+ F F F C D F+ F+
0.84 44% 43% 30% -7 +1 0.90 28% 0.6 .18 27% .41 55% .22 1.26 80% 50% 27% +6 +1 1.16 48% 1.3 .65 19% .40 79% .32
Nov
10		 Miami (FL) F A+ F F F 20% 29% 51% F+ F D A C D A+ F A D F+ F D+ F+ 52% 12% 37% D- F+ A- B+ A C- D- C D
0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24 1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27
Nov
16		 Western Carolina F F C F F 31% 29% 40% F+ F D+ B- C- B- C- F+ D B D+ F F F 40% 8% 52% F F A+ C A A+ A C- A
0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21 1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15
Nov
19		 Howard F+ F D- C- D 37% 17% 46% D+ D- F A+ F F A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B- A+ B+ A+ A+ F B+ C- B+
0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40 0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 VMI A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 13% 70% D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ C+ F F+ F F D C- C- F 36% 15% 49% C- F+ F+ F+ F F B- B B
1.50 89% 57% 50% +24 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11 1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17
Nov
25		 Wright St. F F+ B- F+ F+ 40% 18% 42% C+ D- C- B+ C+ F+ F F F F A+ F F F 39% 16% 45% D+ F D+ F F A- A+ A+ A+
0.96 50% 44% 29% -6 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10 1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06
Nov
29		 Southern Utah F+ B- A F D+ 36% 28% 36% D D+ C- C+ C F F A+ D B- F A+ A+ C 52% 20% 28% D- C- A+ F C+ C- D F F
0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15 1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27
Nov
30		 Robert Morris D+ F A+ F D- 24% 35% 41% F F+ F A+ C- B+ C+ C- C+ F B- F F F 27% 25% 48% B+ F C F F F C- A+ A-
1.02 45% 56% 21% -5 -3 0.87 20% 1.3 .26 13% .38 75% .28 1.31 54% 58% 48% +14 -1 1.27 36% 1.5 .54 11% .26 43% .11
Dec
2		 Grand Canyon F D+ F F F 43% 17% 40% A- F+ C- F D- F F F F A- F F A+ B 28% 24% 48% A B+ C+ D C- A- F A- F+
0.68 50% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08 1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31
Dec
6		 South Carolina F C F F F 29% 31% 40% F+ F F+ D D- A B+ F C+ F F F F F 26% 20% 54% B F F D- F A+ A D A
0.80 57% 27% 16% -15 -2 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 11% .32 61% .19 1.29 75% 56% 44% +16 -1 1.33 45% 1.2 .55 20% .24 83% .20
Dec
22		 Oklahoma F A+ B F F 16% 34% 50% F F D- B- D+ F D- C+ D- F F A- F F 45% 12% 43% F F D- F F D+ D A C-
0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17 1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25
Jan
1		 North Alabama D A+ A+ F B 44% 16% 40% C B F F F F A C- B+ C C- C+ A+ B+ 45% 6% 49% F B- F+ C- D- C C+ C- C+
1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27 1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20
Jan
3		 Central Arkansas C B- A+ A- B+ 24% 13% 62% D+ B C+ D- C- D- A+ F+ A F F A+ D- F 40% 8% 52% F+ F F F+ F C F F F
1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26 1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32
Jan
8		 Lipscomb B A+ A+ B- A 34% 13% 53% B A F F F B+ A+ A A+ D+ D- F B+ D- 50% 12% 38% D D- A F C+ B- F B F
1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35 1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Austin Peay F+ C+ D F F+ 30% 17% 54% C- F+ C B+ B- D F F+ F D- B- F A C- 40% 31% 29% A C+ A- F F+ F F A+ D-
0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12 1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28
Jan
15		 West Georgia A- B+ F A+ A+ 51% 11% 38% B A+ D C+ D+ F A+ B- A+ F C F A- C- 41% 22% 37% F D F D F F C F F+
1.30 67% 20% 67% +21 +2 1.49 26% 1.0 .26 20% .48 75% .36 1.18 54% 54% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.1 .44 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
17		 Queens C- B+ F B C+ 43% 20% 37% C C+ C F D C- A+ F A+ F+ F F A D+ 38% 9% 54% D- D+ F+ A+ C+ F C+ D+ C
1.16 67% 30% 39% +5 0 1.12 34% 0.8 .29 16% .58 62% .36 1.25 81% 60% 27% +5 +1 1.14 35% 0.8 .29 10% .30 79% .24
Jan
22		 Lipscomb F D+ D- C- D 36% 28% 36% D+ D C- F F F D A+ C+ B+ D+ A B B- 41% 19% 41% B B A- A+ A+ F+ D D D-
0.92 57% 31% 33% -3 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21 0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21
Jan
23		 Austin Peay D- B C- F+ D 32% 23% 45% D- D D F F+ C B+ C B C F D+ A+ C 33% 31% 37% A+ C+ F+ F F B- C+ C- C+
0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25 1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 North Florida C D+ C B C- 43% 13% 44% C+ C D+ F F A- B F+ C+ C- F+ C A+ B- 44% 10% 46% D- C+ D+ F F+ D D- D- F+
1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21 1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Alabama F+ B+ F F F 46% 22% 33% D+ F C A B D- B- A+ A- D- F B+ B- F 40% 16% 44% C- F C+ D+ C C- D+ C+ D+
1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27 1.08 72% 29% 30% +1 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23
Feb
5		 Bellarmine D A+ A C- D+ 13% 18% 69% D- D+ D- A+ B+ D D D+ D F D- D+ F F 44% 10% 46% D+ F F F F F A+ F+ A+
1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20 1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11
Feb
7		 Eastern Kentucky B F A+ A+ C+ 39% 18% 43% C+ C+ C- A- B- C- C A+ B F F F B- F 35% 15% 51% F F D- F F F F F F
1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29 1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 +1 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35
Feb
11		 Jacksonville D F B+ A C- 35% 23% 43% D D+ D- F F+ C A+ F A C F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 25% 33% C+ A F B- D D- F+ C- F+
1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34 0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26
Feb
14		 Florida Gulf Coast C F A+ A+ C- 52% 15% 33% B C D A+ B- C F B- F D C- B+ D- D+ 43% 21% 36% F+ D C- F+ D C- A B- A
1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18 1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12
Feb
19		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F A+ A+ 20% 22% 59% F A+ D- A+ B F F A+ F+ F F F D- F 31% 15% 54% C F F B+ F+ C- F D- F
1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14 1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
21		 North Florida D+ A+ F A+ A 31% 13% 56% C- A- B- F F F D+ F F D B+ F C- D 33% 20% 47% B+ D+ F F+ F D- C- A+ B-
1.19 73% 17% 44% +11 +1 1.25 40% 0.6 .26 19% .25 54% .13 1.11 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.3 .41 16% .26 64% .17
Feb
26		 Jacksonville A- A+ A+ C A 57% 7% 37% A A+ D- F F+ B+ A D+ B+ F B+ A F B- 56% 23% 21% D- C+ F F F F F F F
1.26 77% 67% 35% +13 +3 1.35 23% 0.7 .17 12% .46 67% .30 1.32 48% 27% 40% -6 +1 0.92 45% 1.4 .65 9% .51 97% .49
Feb
28		 Florida Gulf Coast C D A+ A+ A+ 46% 17% 37% C+ A+ D+ A+ A F F F F B+ C- A B+ B 48% 19% 33% F C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D+ C-
1.15 52% 63% 53% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.7 .48 24% .27 64% .17 0.93 60% 30% 29% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.3 .06 13% .27 75% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.5 99.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7%
Lose Out 58.0%