Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.5 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #306
Pace 68.6 #202
Improvement -0.6 #212

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #327 D- D- D- D D
Defense #344 F B D- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #343 1.12 #220 -5.3 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #138 0.77 #147 +0.9 #135
Three Pointers 48% #61 0.84 #333 -0.8 #216
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #322 -5.3 #321
Freethrows 15.4 #284 67% #313 10.3 #306
Second Chance 24.7% #324 1.01 #230 0.25 #313
Turnovers 18.6% #287
Total Offense -6.0 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.35 #347 -3.2 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #276 0.83 #290 +0.6 #159
Three Pointers 45% #75 1.15 #330 -5.0 #339
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #354 -7.7 #354
Freethrows 14.8 #56 71% #132 10.6 #306
Second Chance 32.1% #238 1.21 #332 0.39 #320
Turnovers 15.9% #220
Total Defense -6.5 #344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #286 0.8% #242
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #309 14.2% #356
Possession Length 18.2 #269 16.4 #54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #337 0.19 #226
Improvement +0.8 #131 -1.4 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 22.6% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.1% 16.8% 35.6%
First Four0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 18.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 141 @Rhode Island L 62-93 7%     -16.5   0 - 1 -27.0 -10.4 -14.9
  Mon, Nov 10 36 @Miami (FL) L 61-102 1%     -18.4   0 - 2 -24.5 -10.8 -9.1
  Sun, Nov 16 281 @Western Carolina L 65-76 20%     -8.0   0 - 3 -14.8 -12.4 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 19 275 Howard W 64-60 38%     9.7   1 - 3 -5.4 -8.7 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 22 331 VMI W 99-80 54%     8.7   2 - 3 +5.4 +24.0 -17.5
  Tue, Nov 25 146 Wright St. L 62-79 17%     -15.2   2 - 4 -19.4 -6.6 -14.2
  Sat, Nov 29 333 Southern Utah L 68-70 43%     2.8   2 - 5 -12.6 -8.3 -4.3
  Sun, Nov 30 206 @Robert Morris L 62-80 12%     -11.8   2 - 6 -17.7 -2.7 -17.6
  Tue, Dec 2 96 @Grand Canyon L 45-67 4%     -3.9   2 - 7 -13.6 -18.9 +4.0
  Sat, Dec 6 73 @South Carolina L 51-82 3%     -14.9   2 - 8 -20.1 -11.8 -11.4
  Mon, Dec 22 49 @Oklahoma L 54-107 2%     -25.1   2 - 9 -39.3 -13.0 -27.8
  Thu, Jan 1 288 @North Alabama W 70-67 21%     0.1   3 - 9 1 - 0 -1.1 +1.3 -2.3
  Sat, Jan 3 254 @Central Arkansas L 73-93 17%     -12.7   3 - 10 1 - 1 -22.4 +1.0 -24.0
  Thu, Jan 8 157 Lipscomb L 70-79 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 207 Austin Peay L 69-76 26%    
  Thu, Jan 15 308 West Georgia L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 Queens L 78-84 29%    
  Thu, Jan 22 157 @Lipscomb L 67-82 8%    
  Sat, Jan 24 207 @Austin Peay L 66-79 12%    
  Thu, Jan 29 346 @North Florida L 81-84 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 288 North Alabama L 70-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 292 @Bellarmine L 72-80 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 266 @Eastern Kentucky L 71-81 19%    
  Thu, Feb 12 313 Jacksonville L 69-70 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 70-84 10%    
  Thu, Feb 19 254 Central Arkansas L 73-77 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 346 North Florida W 84-81 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 313 @Jacksonville L 66-73 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 73-81 22%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.3 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 5.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 6.6 4.8 0.6 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.0 6.4 1.1 0.0 17.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.1 8.0 7.2 1.8 0.1 20.6 11th
12th 1.1 4.5 7.3 5.2 1.5 0.1 19.5 12th
Total 1.1 4.8 10.6 15.8 18.2 17.3 13.6 8.8 5.3 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 30.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.7
9-9 5.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.2
8-10 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.8
7-11 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.3
5-13 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.1
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 10.6% 10.6
2-16 4.8% 4.8
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%