Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #335
Expected Predictive Rating -9.7 #319
Pace 68.2 #196
Improvement +2.1 #95

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #308 D+ D D+ D+ C-
Defense #333 D- D D+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.18 #146 -3.3 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #154 0.72 #243 +0.0 #180
Three Pointers 46% #72 0.91 #321 +0.0 #179
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #279 -3.3 #278
Freethrows 0.29 #242 69% #272 0.20 #258
Second Chance 25.1% #325 0.99 #228 0.25 #316
Turnovers 18.8% #293
Total Offense -5.2 #308

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #184 1.35 #357 -3.7 #305
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #247 0.87 #338 -0.2 #196
Three Pointers 43% #111 1.05 #234 -1.8 #268
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #340 -5.8 #341
Freethrows 0.27 #70 72% #154 0.19 #77
Second Chance 32.4% #261 1.17 #340 0.38 #321
Turnovers 15.3% #285
Total Defense -5.9 #333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #263 0.6% #227
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #274 10.6% #346
Possession Length 18.2 #267 16.5 #60
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #320 0.19 #228
Improvement +2.0 #80 +0.1 #180

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 18.6% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.1% 3.9% 18.3%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 22.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 49 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 117 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 7% -17  0 - 1 -25 -9 D- F F -14 D- F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  0 - 2 -25 -12 F C- D -9 D- B+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 279 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 24% -8  0 - 3 -15 -15 F D+ B- +1 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 254 Howard W 64 - 60 39% +10  1 - 3 -4 -8 D- F F+ +4 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 359 VMI W 99 - 80 74% +9  2 - 3 +1 +22 A+ B+ B- -19 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 148 Wright St. L 62 - 79 20% -15  2 - 4 -19 -8 D C+ D -13 F F+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 288 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 35% +3  2 - 5 -9 -7 D+ C- F -2 C- C C-
 Sun, Nov 30 214 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 15% -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D+ B+ -18 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 62 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  2 - 7 -10 -16 D- D- F +5 B D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 87 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 4% -15  2 - 8 -22 -12 F D- A- -12 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 57 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 3% -25  2 - 9 -41 -14 F C- F -28 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 1 331 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 38% +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -5 -3 B F F -2 C+ D C
 Sat, Jan 3 207 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 15% -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -20 +3 B+ C- D- -23 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 186 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 27% +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +3 +8 A+ F B+ -5 D- B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 170 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 24% -7  4 - 11 2 - 2 -16 -4 F+ B C -11 C F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 330 West Georgia W 95 - 86 60% +4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -5 +11 A+ D+ F -16 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 211 Queens L 81 - 87 31% -8  5 - 12 3 - 3 -12 +1 C D C- -13 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 186 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 12% -5  5 - 13 3 - 4 -4 -8 D+ F F +5 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 170 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 11% -0  5 - 14 3 - 5 -6 -2 D D- B- -4 C F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 348 @North Florida W 84 - 77 42% +6  6 - 14 4 - 5 -2 +2 C- F A- -4 B- F+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 331 North Alabama L 66 - 68 61% -3  6 - 15 4 - 6 -16 -7 F B- D- -9 F C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 293 @Bellarmine L 71 - 92 27% -11  6 - 16 4 - 7 -26 -1 D+ B+ D -28 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 264 @Eastern Kentucky L 73 - 81 22%
 Thu, Feb 12 297 Jacksonville L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 224 @Florida Gulf Coast L 70 - 80 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 207 Central Arkansas L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 348 North Florida W 86 - 82 64%
 Thu, Feb 26 297 @Jacksonville L 66 - 72 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 77 34%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11 -5 D+ D D+ -6 D- D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 3.8 0.8 0.1 6.9 5th
6th 1.9 7.2 1.4 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.3 8.5 4.2 0.1 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 4.6 10.6 0.6 15.8 8th
9th 1.2 13.1 4.3 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 0.1 6.6 9.6 0.4 16.6 10th
11th 2.4 8.9 1.8 0.0 13.1 11th
12th 2.9 1.9 0.1 4.9 12th
Total 5.3 18.7 29.5 25.7 14.3 5.3 1.1 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
9-9 5.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 5.2
8-10 14.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.1
7-11 25.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.5
6-12 29.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 29.4
5-13 18.7% 18.7
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.5%