Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#270
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#266
Pace67.7#226
Improvement+1.7#47

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#267
First Shot-3.2#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#169
Layup/Dunks-2.5#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#87
Freethrows-5.0#354
Improvement+1.1#71

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#272
First Shot-3.8#288
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#121
Layups/Dunks+0.1#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#319
Freethrows+2.7#35
Improvement+0.6#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.6% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 18.4% 31.8% 13.3%
.500 or above in Conference 40.5% 50.9% 36.6%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.2% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 6.3% 12.1%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 2.1%
First Round3.1% 4.4% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 27.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 48 - 710 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 88   @ Georgia Tech L 52-77 9%     0 - 1 -15.8 -17.6 +2.7
  Nov 17, 2021 136   @ Miami (OH) L 65-80 15%     0 - 2 -9.9 -4.5 -6.3
  Nov 19, 2021 320   @ Lamar W 60-59 50%     1 - 2 -4.9 -7.9 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2021 182   Campbell L 58-60 42%     1 - 3 -6.0 -7.3 +1.0
  Dec 01, 2021 222   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-74 27%    
  Dec 04, 2021 225   @ Florida International L 63-69 28%    
  Dec 11, 2021 72   Ohio L 67-77 18%    
  Dec 16, 2021 202   College of Charleston L 78-79 47%    
  Dec 20, 2021 120   @ Miami (FL) L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 04, 2022 174   Liberty L 62-65 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 287   @ North Florida L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 11, 2022 259   @ Jacksonville L 62-66 38%    
  Jan 15, 2022 277   Kennesaw St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 18, 2022 191   Florida Gulf Coast L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 307   @ North Alabama L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 177   Bellarmine L 68-70 41%    
  Jan 29, 2022 161   Eastern Kentucky L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 03, 2022 220   @ Lipscomb L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 340   @ Central Arkansas W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 09, 2022 147   Jacksonville St. L 65-69 35%    
  Feb 12, 2022 191   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 16, 2022 259   Jacksonville W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 19, 2022 174   @ Liberty L 59-68 22%    
  Feb 23, 2022 277   @ Kennesaw St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 287   North Florida W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 9 - 16 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.4 3.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.2 1.2 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.2 1.9 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.4 3.4 0.3 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.9 4.7 0.7 11.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.0 5.3 1.4 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 3.3 3.6 1.4 0.1 10.0 11th
12th 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 5.8 12th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.1 9.1 12.3 13.2 13.6 12.2 9.9 8.0 4.9 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 93.1% 0.7    0.5 0.1
13-3 69.2% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1
12-4 38.7% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
11-5 6.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.7% 25.0% 25.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
13-3 1.6% 25.0% 25.0% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2
12-4 3.1% 13.5% 13.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.7
11-5 4.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.1 0.3 4.4
10-6 8.0% 9.5% 9.5% 15.9 0.1 0.7 7.2
9-7 9.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.3
8-8 12.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 11.6
7-9 13.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 13.2
6-10 13.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.0
5-11 12.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.3
4-12 9.1% 9.1
3-13 6.1% 6.1
2-14 3.5% 3.5
1-15 1.4% 1.4
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 95.9 0.0%