Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 327
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 318
Pace 68.0 198
Improvement +2.8 80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 281 D+ D+ D+ D+ D+
Defense D- 339 D- D- D+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 329 C- 56% 208 -3.9 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 188 C- 36% 244 +0.0 181
Three Pointers 46% 79 C- 33% 239 +1.4 135
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.5 263 C- -1.9 248
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 255
Second Chance D 25.3% 319 C 1.03 174 D+ 0.26 294
Turnovers D+ 18.6% 294
Freethrows C- 0.29 248 D+ 70% 270 D+ 0.20 265
Total Offense D+ -4.2 281

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 56% 66 C- 11.8% 231
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 214 B 2.9% 52
Three Pointers B- 87% 121 C+ 0.8% 154
Total B- 61% 76 B- 4.9% 93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 161 F+ 67% 357 +4.0 314
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 256 D- 43% 331 -0.1 180
Three Pointers 43% 120 C- 35% 215 +1.2 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 236 D- +4.7 339
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 335
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 288 D- 1.16 341 D- 0.38 331
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 295
Freethrows B- 0.27 87 C 73% 206 B- 0.20 100
Total Defense D- -6.5 339

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 197 F+ 4.9% 357
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 36% 325 D 2.5% 310
Three Pointers D 89% 324 D- -0.1% 356
Total D+ 59% 263 F+ 2.4% 359

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 275 16.5 49
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 261 0.20 266
Improvement +3.8 #29 -1.0 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 340 327 313
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 8 - 10
Conference Finish 11 9 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 3% 0% 9%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 49 - 109 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 7% -17  0% 0 - 1 F -25 F -12 D- F F F -11 D- F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 40 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  22% 0 - 2 F -25 F -13 F C- D D- -7 F+ A- C-
 Sun, Nov 16 254 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 21% -8  9% 0 - 3 D- -13 F -17 F C- B- B +4 F A A+
 Wed, Nov 19 215 Howard W 64 - 60 32% +10  97% 1 - 3 C- -2 F+ -9 D- F F+ A- +8 A A F
 Sat, Nov 22 358 VMI W 99 - 80 78% +9  89% 2 - 3 C +0 A+ +18 A+ B+ B- F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 149 Wright St. L 62 - 79 22% -15  7% 2 - 4 F -20 F -11 D- B- D- F -10 F F B+
 Sat, Nov 29 273 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 34% +3  66% 2 - 5 D -9 F+ -10 D+ C- F C+ +1 C- C C-
 Sun, Nov 30 177 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 12% -12  5% 2 - 6 F+ -16 D -4 F C- B+ F -14 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 58 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 3% -4  11% 2 - 7 D -10 F -19 F+ D- F A- +8 B+ C- A
 Sat, Dec 6 94 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 5% -15  9% 2 - 8 F -22 F -15 F D- A F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 51 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  1% 2 - 9 F -39 F -17 F D+ F F -24 F F D
 Thu, Jan 1 340 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 44% +0  53% 3 - 9 1 - 0 D+ -6 D- -6 B F F C+ +0 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 3 180 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 13% -13  7% 3 - 10 1 - 1 F -18 C +0 B C- D F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 190 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 29% +11  96% 4 - 10 2 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 A F B+ D+ -3 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 154 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 23% -7  5% 4 - 11 2 - 2 F+ -15 D- -7 F+ B D+ D- -8 C F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 318 West Georgia W 95 - 86 57% +4  91% 5 - 11 3 - 2 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ D+ F F -13 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 204 Queens L 81 - 87 31% -8  0% 5 - 12 3 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C D C- F -10 D+ C+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 190 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 14% -5  11% 5 - 13 3 - 4 C- -4 F -10 D F F A- +7 B- A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 154 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 10% -0  54% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D+ -5 D -5 D F+ C+ C -0 C+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 29 339 @North Florida W 84 - 77 43% +6  93% 6 - 14 4 - 5 C- -2 C +0 C- F A- C- -2 C+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 340 North Alabama L 66 - 68 66% -3  10% 6 - 15 4 - 6 F+ -17 F -10 F B D- D- -7 F C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 287 @Bellarmine L 71 - 92 27% -11  5% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -25 D+ -3 D+ A- D F -25 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 278 @Eastern Kentucky L 88 - 100 25% -0  40% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F+ -16 B+ +8 B- B- C F -23 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 308 Jacksonville W 67 - 62 54% +5  87% 7 - 17 5 - 8 D+ -7 D -6 D+ F+ C+ C -1 A D- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 253 @Florida Gulf Coast L 76 - 78 21% -0  48% 7 - 18 5 - 9 C- -4 C +0 C B C D+ -5 C- D D+
 Thu, Feb 19 180 Central Arkansas L 76 - 88 27% -15  0% 7 - 19 5 - 10 F+ -16 C+ +3 A+ B- F F -20 F F+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 339 North Florida W 85 - 81 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 308 @Jacksonville L 67 - 72 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 253 Florida Gulf Coast L 75 - 78 41%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -11 D+ -4 A+ C- D+ D- -7 C- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C- C- C- 33% 37% 46% D+ D+ D C D+ D+ C- D+ D+ D- F+ D- C- D- 39% 18% 43% C- D- D+ D- D- D+ B- C B-
1.03 56% 36% 33% -2 -1 0.97 25% 1.0 .26 19% .29 70% .20 1.18 67% 43% 35% +5 0 1.12 33% 1.2 .38 15% .27 73% .21
Nov
3		 Rhode Island F F B+ D- D- 38% 15% 48% C+ D- D+ F F F B+ F D+ F F F A F+ 40% 16% 44% C D- F F F C- D F+ F+
0.84 44% 43% 30% -7 +1 0.90 28% 0.6 .18 27% .41 55% .22 1.26 80% 50% 27% +6 +1 1.16 48% 1.3 .65 19% .40 79% .32
Nov
10		 Miami (FL) F A+ F F F 20% 29% 51% F+ F D A C- D A+ F A D- F+ F D+ F+ 52% 12% 37% D- F+ A- B- A- C- D C- D
0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24 1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27
Nov
16		 Western Carolina F F C F F 31% 29% 40% F+ F D B- C- B- C- F D B D+ F F F 40% 8% 52% F F A+ C A A+ A D A-
0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21 1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15
Nov
19		 Howard F+ F D- D+ D- 37% 17% 46% D+ D- F A+ F F+ A+ B A+ A- A A- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B- A B A+ A F A- C B+
0.93 47% 29% 32% -7 0 0.88 16% 1.4 .23 23% .53 75% .40 0.88 40% 30% 25% -14 0 0.74 30% 0.8 .24 15% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 VMI A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 17% 13% 70% D+ A+ D A+ B+ B- F D- F F D C- C- F 36% 15% 49% C- F D- F+ F+ F B B+ B+
1.50 89% 57% 50% +25 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11 1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17
Nov
25		 Wright St. F F+ B- D- F+ 40% 18% 42% C+ D- C- A- B- D- F F F F A+ F F F 39% 16% 45% D+ F D F F B+ A+ A+ A+
0.96 50% 44% 29% -5 0 0.92 29% 1.2 .35 20% .17 56% .10 1.22 42% 50% 59% +13 +1 1.29 34% 1.3 .45 20% .12 50% .06
Nov
29		 Southern Utah F+ B- A F C- 36% 28% 36% D D+ C- C C- F F+ A+ D C+ F A+ A+ C- 52% 20% 28% D- C- A F C C- D- F F
0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15 1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27
Nov
30		 Robert Morris D F A+ F D- 24% 35% 41% F F F A+ C- B+ C C- C F C+ F F F 27% 25% 48% B+ F C F F F C- A+ B+
1.02 45% 56% 21% -5 -3 0.87 20% 1.3 .26 13% .38 75% .28 1.31 54% 58% 48% +14 -1 1.27 36% 1.5 .54 11% .26 43% .11
Dec
2		 Grand Canyon F D+ F F+ F 43% 17% 40% A- F+ C- F D- F F F F A- F F A+ B 28% 24% 48% A B+ C+ D C- A F A- F+
0.68 50% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.74 24% 0.8 .18 26% .20 40% .08 1.01 77% 45% 18% -4 -1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 21% .44 70% .31
Dec
6		 South Carolina F C F F F 29% 31% 40% D- F F+ D D- A B F C F F F F F 26% 20% 54% B F F D- F A+ A D A
0.80 57% 27% 16% -15 -2 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 11% .32 61% .19 1.29 75% 56% 44% +16 -1 1.33 45% 1.2 .55 20% .24 83% .20
Dec
22		 Oklahoma F A+ B- F F 16% 34% 50% F F D B- D+ F D- C+ D- F F A F F 45% 12% 43% F+ F D- F F D D- A- C-
0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17 1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25
Jan
1		 North Alabama D- A+ A+ F B 44% 16% 40% C B F F F F A- C- B+ C+ C- C+ A+ B+ 45% 6% 49% F B- F+ C D- C C+ C- C
1.06 75% 57% 28% +7 +1 1.18 25% 0.7 .18 20% .36 74% .27 1.02 57% 33% 20% -11 +2 0.84 36% 1.1 .38 18% .30 69% .20
Jan
3		 Central Arkansas C B- A+ A- B+ 24% 13% 62% D+ B C+ D- C- D A+ D- A F F A+ D- F 40% 8% 52% F+ F F F F C F F F
1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26 1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32
Jan
8		 Lipscomb B A+ A+ B- A 34% 13% 53% B A F F F B+ A+ A A+ D+ D- F B+ F+ 50% 12% 38% D F+ A F C+ B- F A- F
1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35 1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27
Jan
10		 Austin Peay D- C+ D F F+ 30% 17% 54% C- F+ C A- B D+ F D- F D- B- F A C- 40% 31% 29% A- C A- F F+ F F A+ F+
0.98 63% 33% 28% -5 0 0.93 32% 0.9 .29 20% .20 64% .12 1.15 52% 50% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 1.9 .42 7% .49 56% .28
Jan
15		 West Georgia B+ B+ F A+ A+ 51% 11% 38% B A+ D C+ D+ F A+ B- A+ F C F A- D+ 41% 22% 37% F D F D+ F F C F D-
1.30 67% 20% 67% +21 +2 1.49 26% 1.0 .26 20% .48 75% .36 1.18 54% 54% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.1 .44 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
17		 Queens C- B+ F+ B C+ 43% 20% 37% C- C C F D C- A+ F A+ F F F A D+ 38% 9% 54% D D+ F+ A+ C+ F C D C-
1.16 67% 30% 39% +5 0 1.12 34% 0.8 .29 16% .58 62% .36 1.25 81% 60% 27% +5 +1 1.14 35% 0.8 .29 10% .30 79% .24
Jan
22		 Lipscomb F C- D- C- D 36% 28% 36% D+ D C- F F F D A+ C A- D+ A- B B- 41% 19% 41% B B- A- A+ A+ F+ D+ C- D
0.92 57% 31% 33% -3 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21 0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21
Jan
23		 Austin Peay D B C- F+ D 32% 23% 45% D D D F F+ C+ B+ C+ B+ C F C- A+ C 33% 31% 37% A C+ F+ F F B- C+ C- C+
0.97 67% 36% 29% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 18% .36 70% .25 1.09 69% 40% 22% -2 -2 0.94 34% 1.7 .57 18% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 North Florida C D+ C B C- 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D+ F F A- B- D- C C- D- C A+ B 44% 10% 46% D- C+ D+ F F+ D- D- D F+
1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21 1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Alabama F B+ F F F 46% 22% 33% D+ F C A- B D- C+ A+ A- D- F B+ B F 40% 16% 44% C F C+ D+ C C- D+ C D+
1.05 67% 10% 20% -9 0 0.85 34% 1.3 .46 17% .31 88% .27 1.08 72% 29% 30% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.1 .32 17% .35 67% .23
Feb
5		 Bellarmine D+ A+ A C- C- 13% 18% 69% D- D+ D- A+ A- D D+ C- D+ F F+ D+ F F 44% 10% 46% D+ F F F F F A+ F A+
1.15 83% 50% 35% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.8 .50 18% .28 71% .20 1.50 70% 40% 58% +22 +2 1.50 27% 1.5 .41 10% .13 86% .11
Feb
7		 Eastern Kentucky B+ F A+ A+ B- 39% 18% 43% C+ B- C- A- B- C C A+ B+ F F F C+ F 35% 15% 51% F F D- F F F F F F
1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29 1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 +1 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35
Feb
11		 Jacksonville D F B+ A- C- 35% 23% 43% D D+ D- F F+ C+ A+ F A C F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 25% 33% C+ A F C+ D- D- F+ D F
1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34 0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26
Feb
14		 Florida Gulf Coast C F A+ A+ C- 52% 15% 33% B+ C D A+ B C F B- F D+ C- B+ D- C 43% 21% 36% F C- C F+ D D+ A B- A
1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18 1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12
Feb
19		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F A+ A+ 20% 22% 59% F A+ D- A+ B- F F A+ F+ F F F D- F 31% 15% 54% C F F B F+ C- F F+ F
1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14 1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.6 4.9 5.5 5th
6th 6.2 3.7 9.9 6th
7th 0.9 16.0 0.7 17.6 7th
8th 7.2 9.7 0.0 16.9 8th
9th 18.4 1.9 20.3 9th
10th 4.7 14.4 0.1 19.2 10th
11th 10.2 0.4 10.5 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 12th
Total 15.0 41.1 34.5 9.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 9.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.3
7-11 34.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 34.3
6-12 41.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 41.0
5-13 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 9.6%