Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#121
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#93
Pace80.2#8
Improvement+0.5#154

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#49
First Shot+3.3#89
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#65
Layup/Dunks+0.8#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#16
Freethrows-2.3#302
Improvement+2.6#23

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#281
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#305
Layups/Dunks-1.5#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows-1.0#256
Improvement-2.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 22.3% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 97.3% 98.3% 93.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 92.2% 86.8%
Conference Champion 29.1% 30.7% 21.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round21.2% 22.3% 16.3%
Second Round2.8% 3.0% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 81.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 415 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 149   @ Cornell L 86-88 46%     0 - 1 +1.6 -0.6 +2.5
  Nov 15, 2024 214   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 58%     1 - 1 +1.4 +4.0 -2.8
  Nov 17, 2024 294   Texas Southern W 97-82 87%     2 - 1 +5.1 +13.6 -9.5
  Nov 19, 2024 27   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 10%     2 - 2 +8.3 +9.7 -1.4
  Nov 26, 2024 187   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 74%     3 - 2 +0.7 +16.8 -16.4
  Nov 27, 2024 184   Utah Valley W 84-76 74%     4 - 2 +3.9 +2.7 +0.5
  Nov 29, 2024 349   West Georgia W 86-65 94%     5 - 2 +5.4 +7.2 -1.6
  Dec 05, 2024 303   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 75%     6 - 2 +2.6 +16.5 -13.7
  Dec 08, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 18, 2024 23   @ Arizona L 82-97 9%    
  Dec 21, 2024 360   @ Alabama A&M W 92-78 91%    
  Jan 01, 2025 325   The Citadel W 85-70 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina W 87-82 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 346   VMI W 92-74 95%    
  Jan 11, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 15, 2025 232   @ Mercer W 87-84 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 135   East Tennessee St. W 84-80 64%    
  Jan 22, 2025 200   @ Chattanooga W 84-83 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 142   Wofford W 84-79 66%    
  Jan 29, 2025 119   @ Furman L 79-82 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 05, 2025 232   Mercer W 90-81 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 81-83 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 200   Chattanooga W 87-80 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 81-82 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 119   Furman W 82-79 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 90-79 84%    
  Feb 27, 2025 346   @ VMI W 89-77 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.2 8.2 8.1 5.0 2.2 0.5 29.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.4 8.0 4.9 1.1 0.1 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.3 6.8 2.6 0.4 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.2 5.4 1.6 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 3.9 1.3 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.5 7.4 10.1 13.5 14.8 14.9 13.4 9.1 5.2 2.2 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.0
16-2 97.7% 5.0    4.6 0.4
15-3 88.1% 8.1    6.2 1.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 60.8% 8.2    4.3 3.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 28.0% 4.2    1.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 19.1 7.7 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 57.3% 56.5% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.9%
17-1 2.2% 49.4% 49.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.4%
16-2 5.2% 43.0% 43.0% 12.3 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.9
15-3 9.1% 36.0% 36.0% 12.6 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.9
14-4 13.4% 31.0% 31.0% 13.0 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 9.3
13-5 14.9% 24.8% 24.8% 13.3 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.2
12-6 14.8% 18.0% 18.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.1
11-7 13.5% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 11.5
10-8 10.1% 9.7% 9.7% 14.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.2
9-9 7.4% 7.2% 7.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.9
8-10 4.5% 5.7% 5.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.2
7-11 2.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.3% 21.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.4 8.3 5.2 1.5 0.2 78.7 0.0%