Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#227
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#195
Pace69.3#191
Improvement+1.1#110

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#197
First Shot-1.9#225
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#121
Layup/Dunks-1.9#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows-0.1#193
Improvement-1.2#264

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#275
First Shot-3.8#309
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#124
Layups/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#183
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+2.2#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.4% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 54.0% 63.5% 38.1%
.500 or above in Conference 65.5% 74.8% 50.0%
Conference Champion 7.2% 9.3% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.9% 4.9%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round6.7% 7.9% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 62.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 194 @Tulane L 72-85 32%     0 - 1 -12.2 +3.7 -16.9
  Fri, Nov 7 358 South Carolina St. W 82-72 90%     1 - 1 -7.9 -1.5 -6.7
  Wed, Nov 12 327 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 61%     2 - 1 -3.9 +8.7 -12.9
  Fri, Nov 14 23 @Arkansas L 75-79 3%     2 - 2 +14.2 +7.1 +7.3
  Sun, Nov 16 282 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 48%     3 - 2 +3.5 +5.4 -2.3
  Wed, Nov 19 186 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 53%     3 - 3 -19.8 -14.0 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 21 127 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 19%     3 - 4 -3.8 +10.9 -15.8
  Tue, Nov 25 330 Georgia St. W 78-63 72%     4 - 4 +4.9 +2.2 +2.7
  Wed, Nov 26 85 Utah Valley L 45-89 16%     4 - 5 -37.4 -24.8 -10.6
  Fri, Dec 5 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57-83 6%     4 - 6 -11.9 -9.2 -2.6
  Sun, Dec 7 159 Cornell W 93-90 45%     5 - 6 +0.1 +5.2 -5.3
  Thu, Jan 1 332 @VMI W 78-75 63%    
  Sat, Jan 3 294 @UNC Greensboro W 76-75 50%    
  Wed, Jan 7 299 Western Carolina W 80-74 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 235 @Chattanooga L 73-76 40%    
  Wed, Jan 14 148 Furman L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 141 East Tennessee St. L 74-76 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 220 @Wofford L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 Chattanooga W 76-73 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 148 @Furman L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 299 @Western Carolina W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 355 The Citadel W 79-66 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 174 Mercer W 79-78 50%    
  Wed, Feb 11 220 Wofford W 76-73 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 141 @East Tennessee St. L 71-79 22%    
  Thu, Feb 19 355 @The Citadel W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 174 @Mercer L 75-81 30%    
  Thu, Feb 26 332 VMI W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 294 UNC Greensboro W 78-72 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.5 4.5 1.4 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.6 5.2 1.3 0.1 15.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 6.7 5.1 0.9 0.0 15.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 6.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.0 9.8 12.6 14.3 14.4 12.9 10.4 7.0 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 97.2% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 85.5% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 58.0% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 26.9% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 3.6 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 26.8% 26.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 29.3% 29.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.8% 27.6% 27.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
14-4 4.0% 18.9% 18.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 3.3
13-5 7.0% 15.5% 15.5% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 5.9
12-6 10.4% 13.2% 13.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 9.0
11-7 12.9% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 11.8
10-8 14.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 13.5
9-9 14.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.1 0.5 13.6
8-10 12.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.3
7-11 9.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.6
6-12 6.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 5.9
5-13 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-14 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 2.6 92.8 0.0%