Samford
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#241
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#63
Pace79.3#20
Improvement+0.2#153

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#177
First Shot-3.1#270
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#38
Layup/Dunks-8.5#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#66
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement+0.5#124

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#293
First Shot-6.0#333
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#53
Layups/Dunks-0.6#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#314
Freethrows-1.7#275
Improvement-0.3#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.9% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 40.5% 63.4% 34.2%
.500 or above in Conference 30.9% 42.8% 27.6%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.5% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 17.0% 10.7% 18.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round2.7% 4.9% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 50   @ San Francisco L 55-77 7%     0 - 1 -9.8 -13.9 +5.1
  Nov 18, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. W 78-77 19%     1 - 1 +6.5 +6.9 -0.5
  Nov 26, 2021 279   N.C. A&T W 77-75 59%     2 - 1 -4.4 +1.5 -6.0
  Nov 27, 2021 327   McNeese St. W 83-75 73%     3 - 1 -2.2 -6.9 +3.4
  Dec 05, 2021 66   Belmont L 78-86 22%    
  Dec 08, 2021 339   @ Alabama St. W 82-76 70%    
  Dec 11, 2021 341   Alabama A&M W 81-69 87%    
  Dec 18, 2021 277   Kennesaw St. W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 21, 2021 77   @ Mississippi L 65-79 10%    
  Dec 29, 2021 101   @ Furman L 74-86 15%    
  Jan 01, 2022 240   The Citadel W 83-80 61%    
  Jan 05, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 08, 2022 301   Western Carolina W 85-78 74%    
  Jan 12, 2022 118   @ Wofford L 70-80 19%    
  Jan 15, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 20, 2022 257   @ VMI L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 173   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 26, 2022 196   Mercer W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 301   @ Western Carolina W 82-81 53%    
  Feb 02, 2022 109   Chattanooga L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 05, 2022 240   @ The Citadel L 80-83 40%    
  Feb 09, 2022 118   Wofford L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-79 19%    
  Feb 17, 2022 257   VMI W 78-74 66%    
  Feb 19, 2022 173   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 23, 2022 101   Furman L 77-83 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 109   @ Chattanooga L 64-75 17%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.4 2.4 5.0 2.5 0.3 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.8 3.2 0.4 13.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.2 6.8 3.3 0.5 0.1 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.3 5.9 2.8 0.3 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.1 4.7 1.8 0.2 14.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 10.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.0 8.9 11.7 12.5 13.6 12.0 10.8 8.0 5.4 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 86.4% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 60.2% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1
13-5 28.5% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.4% 29.5% 29.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 20.4% 20.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.1% 15.5% 15.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8
12-6 3.1% 8.3% 8.3% 13.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
11-7 5.4% 6.7% 6.7% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.0
10-8 8.0% 5.9% 5.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.5
9-9 10.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.5
8-10 12.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.7
7-11 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.1 0.1 13.4
6-12 12.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 11.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
3-15 6.0% 6.0
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 97.2 0.0%