Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 187
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 199
Pace 68.1 192
Improvement +6.4 8

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 150 C- D B+ B- C-
Defense C- 244 C C+ F+ C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 B- 61% 95 -1.3 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 228 D+ 36% 253 -0.7 214
Three Pointers 46% 84 D+ 31% 289 +0.5 158
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 223 C- -1.2 216
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 216
Second Chance D- 24.0% 335 C+ 1.05 145 D 0.25 312
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 25
Freethrows B+ 0.36 30 D- 68% 323 B- 0.24 98
Total Offense C +0.4 150

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 D+ 12.4% 265
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 332 C 4.9% 180
Three Pointers B- 87% 120 B- 0.6% 108
Total C+ 57% 150 C 5.5% 179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 C+ 56% 121 -1.7 118
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 10 D 42% 320 +4.8 364
Three Pointers 33% 353 D+ 36% 276 -2.8 65
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 23 C- +1.6 248
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 185
Second Chance B 26.6% 57 D 1.12 306 C+ 0.30 138
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 354
Freethrows C+ 0.29 135 D 75% 319 C 0.22 166
Total Defense C- -2.3 244

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 76 D+ 8.4% 284
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 160 C+ 5.8% 110
Three Pointers B+ 77% 31 D+ 0.4% 294
Total B+ 47% 25 C- 4.9% 228

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 194 17.3 183
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 309 0.16 145
Improvement +3.1 #52 +3.3 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 219 189 159
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 19% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 99% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round15% 19% 13%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mercer (Away) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 163 @Tulane L 72 - 85 33% -6  16% 0 - 1 D -10 B- +4 C B+ C+ F -15 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 93% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -8 D+ -3 D- D- B+ D -6 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 297 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 62% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -2 B +6 D B- B+ F+ -8 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 17 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  1% 2 - 2 A- +18 B- +5 B- D- A+ A+ +13 A A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 180 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 36% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +9 C+ +3 C- F A+ B +5 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 253 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 73% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -23 F -18 F F+ B- D -6 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 157 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 32% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -6 B +6 D C A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 283 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 69% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +8 C +1 C- B+ F+ B+ +7 A+ D D
 Wed, Nov 26 95 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 24% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -38 F -29 F F C- D- -8 D- C D-
 Fri, Dec 5 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 148 Cornell W 93 - 90 53% -3  23% 5 - 6 C +0 C +1 B C- C C -1 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 358 @VMI W 78 - 58 84% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 C- -2 B- F A A +10 B+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 300 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 62% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B +7 C- C+ A F -19 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 254 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 73% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 C- C A D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 282 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 58% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 C+ F B+ F -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 14 181 Furman L 73 - 77 59% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D -8 D+ -4 C- D B- D+ -4 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 131 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 48% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -2 A +11 A- D A+ F -14 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 230 @Wofford L 78 - 88 46% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D -11 B- +5 B- C- B+ F -16 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 282 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 78% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +1 C+ +3 D F+ A+ C -1 C C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 181 @Furman L 73 - 78 36% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -9 F F B
 Sun, Feb 1 254 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 51% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +12 B +6 B C D+ B+ +5 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 342 The Citadel W 78 - 64 89% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C -1 C +1 B F C- C- -2 C F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 175 Mercer W 69 - 49 58% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D -6 D+ F+ B A+ +23 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 230 Wofford W 97 - 80 69% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 A +12 A+ A- D C- -2 C B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 131 @East Tennessee St. W 82 - 72 OT 26% +2  58% 13 - 12 8 - 6 A- +15 C+ +3 F A A+ A +11 A- B C
 Thu, Feb 19 342 @The Citadel W 78 - 75 77% +5  74% 14 - 12 9 - 6 D+ -6 D+ -3 B F F+ D+ -4 C- C F
 Sat, Feb 21 175 @Mercer L 77 - 81 36%
 Thu, Feb 26 358 VMI W 85 - 68 94%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 UNC Greensboro W 83 - 74 80%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -2 C +0 C- C- C- C- -2 D+ D- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- D+ D+ C- 34% 34% 46% C- C- D- C+ D B+ B+ D- B- C- C+ D D+ C- 37% 30% 33% A- C B D C+ F+ C+ D C
1.09 61% 36% 31% -1 0 0.99 24% 1.0 .25 14% .36 68% .24 1.12 56% 42% 36% +2 -1 1.03 27% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .27
Nov
3		 Tulane B- C- F A- C+ 25% 27% 48% F+ C C+ A- B+ C+ C- F D F D- F F F 29% 29% 41% A F A+ B+ A+ D A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B F 48% 4% 48% B D- F A D- B+ A+ F+ A+ D A+ F B- D+ 21% 42% 37% A C- A+ F D D- C F F+
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ B- B+ A+ D+ A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% A- F A+ B- A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C B- 39% 20% 41% C+ B- D D D- A+ F A+ D+ A+ A D- D- B+ 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ D+ D
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F C C 22% 14% 64% D+ C- D- F F A+ C- C C- B D A+ C+ B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B- B+ F D- D A- F D+ F+ 38% 40% 23% A- D- F C- F A+ D+ A- C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C D D A C A+ C- C C- F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C D+ C
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- C- 42% 12% 47% B C- D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ F+ C D D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F C F F C- F F F D- D+ C F D- 64% 14% 21% D- D- B+ D- C D- B F C
0.61 22% 27% 25% -20 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F+ F F B+ B- D+ C+ C+ A C- F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B 41% 22% 37% D+ B D- A C- C A+ C- A+ C A+ D- B- A+ 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C+ D F C+ B+ B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI C- A+ F A B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F B+ A F C A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ C+ A B+ D A D B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +12 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B A+ F F+ C- 31% 14% 55% C+ C- C B- C+ A A+ F B+ F A C F F 32% 44% 24% A+ D- C- F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina C+ D B A- C- 37% 21% 42% C- C- D+ B C A B- A+ A D A- A+ F A 52% 28% 20% C A- F+ F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga D+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F C+ F B+ A+ F A+ F B- C- F+ C- 50% 20% 30% F+ D+ A+ F B- F F+ F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B+ F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ C- F A+ D B- A+ B+ A+ D+ C+ F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C+ F A C+ F C+ C- C+
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A F+ A+ A+ A 24% 16% 60% D A- F A D A+ D- A+ D+ F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F D-
1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B- A- A+ F+ B- 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D+ B C- B+ D- C D- F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F F D+ F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +4 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga C+ F A+ D- F+ 40% 4% 56% A D F+ C- F+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D D C- 24% 20% 56% B- C B+ F C+ F+ F A D-
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D B+ B- B+ A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F C F F B F F F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B+ B 36% 11% 52% B B C+ C- C D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ B B A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- A+ A A+ F F D- F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B D F F C- A+ C A+ C- C- F A+ D+ 30% 34% 36% A+ C F D- F D+ C- A+ A-
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F+ B A+ C A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D B D+ C+
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ F+ A+ A- D A- D- B C- B- D- C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F B+ F C- B+ C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23
Feb
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ D F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ A A D- A A- 42% 24% 35% B- A- A- D- B C D+ C- D+
1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48 0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27
Feb
19		 The Citadel D+ A+ F B+ B 39% 14% 47% C B D F F F+ B F C- D+ C A+ D- D+ 29% 27% 44% A- C- A+ F C F A+ F+ A+
1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19 1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 19.3 24.7 44.1 2nd
3rd 2.8 28.5 2.5 33.9 3rd
4th 0.1 9.3 7.5 16.9 4th
5th 0.4 3.6 4.0 5th
6th 0.4 0.3 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.9 16.1 55.3 27.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.7% 0.5    0.0 0.4
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 27.7% 20.5% 20.5% 14.3 0.5 2.9 2.2 0.1 22.0
11-7 55.3% 14.7% 14.7% 15.1 0.0 1.3 4.8 2.0 47.1
10-8 16.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 14.5
9-9 0.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 14.8 84.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 100.0% 14.3 8.5 51.6 38.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.0%
Lose Out 0.3%