North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#342
Expected Predictive Rating-17.1#357
Pace78.6#19
Improvement-0.1#200

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#262
First Shot-2.0#231
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#280
Layup/Dunks-5.1#331
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#10
Freethrows-5.3#361
Improvement-0.4#221

Defense
Total Defense-8.1#360
First Shot-1.8#234
After Offensive Rebounds-6.3#365
Layups/Dunks-4.6#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#130
Freethrows+0.3#150
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.4% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 20.4% 10.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 35.9% 21.2% 36.1%
First Four0.5% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 45 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 15 @Florida L 64-104 1%     0 - 1 -19.1 -6.0 -8.2
  Wed, Nov 12 18 @Tennessee L 66-99 1%     0 - 2 -13.7 -2.3 -8.8
  Wed, Nov 19 243 @Wofford L 78-86 17%     0 - 3 -9.7 +1.1 -10.4
  Sat, Nov 22 219 Southern Miss L 83-92 22%     0 - 4 -12.5 +5.9 -18.2
  Sun, Nov 23 322 Prairie View L 82-85 41%     0 - 5 -12.2 +2.5 -14.6
  Tue, Dec 2 231 SIU Edwardsville L 63-72 33%     0 - 6 -16.0 -6.5 -10.2
  Sun, Dec 7 4 @Gonzaga L 58-109 0.3%    0 - 7 -26.4 -8.5 -13.1
  Sat, Dec 13 70 @Dayton L 69-92 2%    
  Thu, Dec 18 264 @Charleston Southern L 77-86 20%    
  Sun, Dec 21 33 @Miami (FL) L 68-96 1%    
  Sun, Dec 28 136 Columbia L 77-87 17%    
  Thu, Jan 1 195 @Austin Peay L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 141 @Lipscomb L 74-90 7%    
  Thu, Jan 8 317 West Georgia W 81-80 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 198 Queens L 83-89 29%    
  Thu, Jan 15 197 @North Alabama L 73-85 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Central Arkansas L 76-84 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 248 Eastern Kentucky L 82-86 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 296 Bellarmine L 82-83 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 345 Stetson W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Jan 31 141 Lipscomb L 77-87 19%    
  Thu, Feb 5 317 @West Georgia L 77-83 30%    
  Sat, Feb 7 198 @Queens L 80-92 14%    
  Wed, Feb 11 179 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78-91 12%    
  Sat, Feb 14 294 @Jacksonville L 73-80 26%    
  Thu, Feb 19 195 Austin Peay L 75-81 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 345 @Stetson L 78-81 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 179 Florida Gulf Coast L 81-88 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 294 Jacksonville L 76-77 46%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.6 4.8 0.9 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.6 8.0 5.4 1.2 0.0 20.7 11th
12th 1.1 4.0 6.9 7.5 4.1 0.9 0.1 24.6 12th
Total 1.1 4.1 8.3 12.5 15.6 15.4 13.8 10.9 7.8 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 69.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 36.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.1 0.7
11-7 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 2.9
9-9 4.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.8
8-10 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.7
7-11 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.8
6-12 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
4-14 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-15 12.5% 12.5
2-16 8.3% 8.3
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%