North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#182
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#83
Pace74.4#55
Improvement-4.7#360

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#91
First Shot+2.0#119
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#115
Layup/Dunks+0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.3#4
Freethrows-5.6#360
Improvement-1.6#302

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#309
First Shot-5.2#332
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#117
Layups/Dunks-8.8#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows+1.8#78
Improvement-3.1#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.7% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 79.9% 88.8% 71.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 88.9% 82.6%
Conference Champion 15.8% 19.4% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.5% 14.6% 10.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 69   @ South Carolina W 74-71 12%     1 - 0 +14.4 +8.8 +5.7
  Nov 07, 2024 276   Charleston Southern W 90-66 78%     2 - 0 +14.7 +6.1 +6.8
  Nov 10, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech W 105-93 23%     3 - 0 +18.6 +19.8 -3.0
  Nov 12, 2024 38   @ Georgia L 77-90 8%     3 - 1 +1.9 +13.9 -12.3
  Nov 18, 2024 193   UNC Asheville L 75-89 63%     3 - 2 -18.4 +1.4 -20.3
  Nov 29, 2024 273   @ SIU Edwardsville W 78-73 58%     4 - 2 +1.9 +4.1 -2.3
  Dec 01, 2024 44   @ Nebraska L 72-103 9%     4 - 3 -17.0 +0.4 -14.5
  Dec 07, 2024 235   @ Georgia Southern L 83-84 49%    
  Dec 14, 2024 160   UNC Greensboro W 75-73 57%    
  Dec 17, 2024 193   @ UNC Asheville L 78-81 41%    
  Dec 21, 2024 10   @ Florida L 73-95 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 04, 2025 105   Lipscomb L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 09, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky L 81-83 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 83-71 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 214   North Alabama W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 23, 2025 290   @ Queens W 85-82 60%    
  Jan 25, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 329   Stetson W 87-75 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 06, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 214   @ North Alabama L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 329   @ Stetson W 84-78 69%    
  Feb 20, 2025 212   Jacksonville W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 24, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky W 84-80 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 4.7 3.7 1.6 0.4 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.8 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.8 4.4 0.9 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.2 3.4 0.6 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.3 9.2 12.0 13.6 14.0 13.5 10.1 7.2 4.1 1.6 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.7% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 89.5% 3.7    2.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 65.9% 4.7    2.8 1.7 0.2
14-4 35.8% 3.6    1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 11.9% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.2 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 50.3% 49.7% 0.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.1%
17-1 1.6% 40.5% 40.5% 12.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0
16-2 4.1% 35.8% 35.8% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 2.6
15-3 7.2% 24.4% 24.4% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 5.4
14-4 10.1% 20.4% 20.4% 13.5 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.0
13-5 13.5% 15.2% 15.2% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.5
12-6 14.0% 11.9% 11.9% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 12.3
11-7 13.6% 9.7% 9.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 12.3
10-8 12.0% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 11.2
9-9 9.2% 3.5% 3.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.9
8-10 6.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 6.1
7-11 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.8 3.9 2.5 0.5 87.4 0.0%