North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -12.5 340
Results Rating -13.8 347
Consistency 0.12 17
Pace 75.2 29
Improvement +2.1 117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 221 C C- D+ D B-
Defense F 364 D F F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 320 D+ 55% 259 -4.0 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 315 B 42% 59 -2.2 289
Three Pointers 53% 10 C 34% 198 +6.0 23
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 102 C- -0.8 203
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 176
Second Chance D 25.2% 317 B 1.12 63 C- 0.28 246
Opponents' Steals D 11.0% 316
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 194
Turnovers D+ 18.3% 282
Freethrows F+ 0.24 346 A- 78% 13 D 0.19 297
Total Offense C- -1.9 221

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 215 D+ 12.5% 275
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 265 C- 6.1% 263
Three Pointers F 68% 363 F 2.3% 360
Total D+ 52% 255 C- 6.2% 251


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 118 D 62% 299 +3.3 294
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 321 F 46% 359 -0.4 157
Three Pointers 43% 120 C- 35% 221 +1.4 262
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 315 D +3.4 310
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 323
Second Chance F 37.4% 361 F+ 1.19 358 F 0.44 363
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.1% 359
Other Turnovers D 6.4% 304
Turnovers F 12.4% 359
Freethrows C+ 0.28 118 B- 71% 104 B- 0.20 102
Total Defense F -10.6 364

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 206 F 4.0% 362
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 167 D 2.0% 324
Three Pointers C- 85% 221 D+ 0.4% 287
Total C- 57% 208 F 2.1% 363

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 142 16.1 17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 262 0.23 349
Consistency 0.12 118 0.10 41
Improvement -1.5 264 +3.6 31

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 340 340 340
Results Rating Rank 347 346 346
Conference Record 5 - 13 5 - 13 5 - 13
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 00 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 45 - 165 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  3% 0 - 1 D -11 D -5 F+ A- D- C- -2 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 14 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 0% -15  6% 0 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 C- B+ F D -6 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 19 244 @Wofford L 78 - 86 16% -1  42% 0 - 3 D -10 D+ -4 B- F C D -6 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 213 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 19% +0  52% 0 - 4 D- -12 B +6 A+ F F F -18 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 314 Prairie View L 82 - 85 38% +5  83% 0 - 5 D- -12 C +0 A+ C- F F -12 D- C D
 Tue, Dec 2 262 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 35% -1  28% 0 - 6 F+ -18 D- -8 D+ C- D F -10 D+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 12 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  1% 0 - 7 F -29 F -11 C- D+ D- F -13 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 80 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  8% 0 - 8 D- -13 D -6 F B C D- -7 F B- F+
 Thu, Dec 18 245 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 16% -12  0% 0 - 9 F -25 C+ +2 B- D C+ F -25 F B- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 30 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  3% 0 - 10 F -20 D -5 D- B+ F F -12 F+ D D-
 Sun, Dec 28 200 Columbia L 82 - 90 24% -1  31% 0 - 11 D- -13 C+ +2 B- F+ B+ F -15 F A F
 Thu, Jan 1 184 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 10% -8  9% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F+ -17 C +1 C+ F D F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 219 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 13% -2  40% 0 - 13 0 - 2 D+ -8 C- -2 D+ D C- D- -7 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 302 West Georgia L 73 - 85 47% -6  0% 0 - 14 0 - 3 F -24 F+ -9 F+ A+ F+ F -15 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 194 Queens L 82 - 89 23% -2  27% 0 - 15 0 - 4 D- -12 D+ -4 C+ D B+ D- -8 C+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 343 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 40% +10  80% 1 - 15 1 - 4 C+ +4 A+ +24 A+ A- A F -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 168 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 9% -23  1% 1 - 16 1 - 5 F -26 D -6 C- F C- F -20 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 298 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 45% +2  67% 2 - 16 2 - 5 D -9 C +1 B- B D F -10 D F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 283 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 41% +6  86% 3 - 16 3 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +15 A+ A- A- F -22 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 310 Stetson L 77 - 84 49% -6  2% 3 - 17 3 - 6 F -19 D -5 D- C D+ F -14 D- D F
 Sat, Jan 31 219 Lipscomb L 94 - 100 27% +2  58% 3 - 18 3 - 7 D- -12 A +12 A A C- F -24 F D+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 302 @West Georgia W 81 - 73 25% -1  30% 4 - 18 4 - 7 C+ +2 C- -1 B+ F F B- +3 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 194 @Queens L 72 - 91 10% -5  22% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F+ -18 D- -7 C- F F F -11 C- F F+
 Wed, Feb 11 256 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 90 17% -7  9% 4 - 20 4 - 9 D -11 C+ +2 C- D+ B- F -13 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 296 @Jacksonville L 56 - 63 23% -4  4% 4 - 21 4 - 10 D- -12 F -10 C- C- F C- -3 C+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 19 184 Austin Peay L 76 - 77 22% +5  77% 4 - 22 4 - 11 D+ -5 F+ -9 F C D B +4 A- D- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Stetson L 71 - 76 27% +3  56% 4 - 23 4 - 12 D -11 D+ -2 D+ B- C- F+ -9 F C+ C
 Thu, Feb 26 256 Florida Gulf Coast W 76 - 70 34% -1  33% 5 - 23 5 - 12 C- -2 C- -2 F C+ C+ C +0 A+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Jacksonville L 61 - 85 44% -21  0% 5 - 24 5 - 13 F -35 F -19 F F D+ F -16 F F B-
 Wed, Mar 4 302 West Georgia L 85 - 93 35% -10  2% 5 - 25 F+ -17 C +0 D- D A+ F -16 F F C-
Totals 5 - 25 5 - 13 -12 C- -2 D+ C- B- F -11 C A- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ B C C- 33% 25% 53% B- C D B C- D+ F+ A- D F D F C- D 41% 16% 43% D D F F+ F F C+ B- B-
1.06 55% 42% 34% -1 +1 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 18% .24 78% .19 1.24 62% 46% 35% +3 +1 1.11 37% 1.2 .44 12% .28 71% .17
Nov
6		 Florida D F F F F 38% 17% 45% A- F+ D A+ A- D- A A+ A+ C- D+ F A+ A+ 47% 3% 50% D- A+ F F F B F+ A D+
0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30 1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27
Nov
12		 Tennessee D+ F+ B- D- D+ 33% 9% 58% A- C- B- A B+ F F F F D C+ F B+ B- 42% 15% 43% D+ C+ F F F B- D C- D
0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10 1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27
Nov
19		 Wofford D+ C F A B- 36% 12% 53% C B- F B F C F D+ F D C- F A+ C+ 50% 4% 46% F C F F F C- F A- D+
1.07 57% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 12% 1.3 .15 15% .13 75% .10 1.18 58% 100% 25% -4 +3 1.00 36% 1.5 .56 14% .40 64% .25
Nov
22		 Southern Miss B A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 18% 58% D A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F D F A+ F 52% 30% 19% D- F F D+ F F D- A+ C+
1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15 1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26
Nov
23		 Prairie View C B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 11% 53% B- A+ C+ D C- F B+ C- B F F D- B F 24% 39% 37% A- D- F A+ C D F B+ F
1.12 63% 80% 46% +16 +1 1.36 38% 1.0 .38 29% .42 73% .31 1.16 69% 43% 30% +2 -3 1.00 45% 0.5 .23 14% .52 70% .36
Dec
2		 SIU Edwardsville D- F B- D D- 35% 14% 51% B+ D+ F+ A+ C- D F A+ F F B+ D- D C 45% 15% 40% F D+ F B F F F B D-
0.97 44% 43% 31% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.3 .30 18% .13 100% .13 1.10 48% 43% 37% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.9 .39 14% .34 63% .21
Dec
7		 Gonzaga F F A- F C 9% 29% 62% F+ C- F+ B+ D+ D- D- F F+ F F A+ F F+ 40% 31% 29% B- D- F+ F F B- C+ C- C
0.75 40% 44% 26% -7 -3 0.82 17% 1.0 .17 23% .22 62% .13 1.41 78% 28% 53% +13 -1 1.26 42% 1.8 .74 16% .28 72% .20
Dec
13		 Dayton D F D- F F 35% 20% 45% B- F B C+ B C C C- C- D- F F A- F 45% 9% 45% D F F A+ B- F+ A+ A+ A+
0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20 1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13
Dec
18		 Charleston Southern C+ C C+ C C+ 40% 16% 44% B+ B- F A+ D C+ C A B F F F F F 25% 10% 65% B F A- D B- D- D+ F F
1.12 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 16% 1.5 .24 11% .35 80% .28 1.41 80% 50% 51% +24 0 1.50 23% 1.0 .23 15% .29 85% .25
Dec
21		 Miami (FL) D F F C F+ 27% 14% 59% B- D- C- A+ B+ F B A+ A+ F F F B+ F 47% 16% 36% C- F+ F A- D D- F C F
0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25 1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31
Dec
28		 Columbia C+ F+ A+ B+ C+ 42% 10% 48% B+ B- F C+ F+ B+ F A+ F+ F D- F F F 51% 12% 37% D- F A+ F A F F F F
1.14 48% 67% 38% +2 +2 1.08 17% 1.0 .17 11% .19 92% .17 1.25 65% 50% 47% +13 +2 1.31 20% 1.2 .24 15% .35 81% .28
Jan
1		 Austin Peay C D- C+ A C+ 37% 10% 53% B- C+ F F F D A+ A+ A+ F C+ F A+ C+ 39% 18% 44% C C+ F F F F C- D- D+
1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35 1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25
Jan
3		 Lipscomb C- F B B- D+ 23% 12% 65% C+ D+ C- F D C- F A+ F D- A A+ C A- 26% 18% 56% A A- F D+ F F F A- F
1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07 1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23
Jan
8		 West Georgia F+ A- F F F 41% 7% 52% B- F+ C A+ A+ F+ F C F F D- F C- F 30% 36% 34% B- F C F F F D- F F
1.02 70% 25% 21% -7 +2 0.93 29% 1.6 .47 18% .19 73% .14 1.19 63% 47% 33% +4 -3 1.06 29% 1.4 .42 13% .32 85% .27
Jan
10		 Queens D+ A B+ D C+ 38% 15% 47% C C+ F A D B+ F A+ F D- D- A+ B+ B 45% 5% 49% F C+ F F F D- F+ C D-
1.13 70% 44% 32% +4 +1 1.12 23% 1.3 .29 12% .19 83% .16 1.23 68% 0% 30% -1 +2 1.05 38% 1.4 .54 12% .38 75% .28
Jan
15		 North Alabama A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% D+ A+ B- A A- A C+ A+ A F D- D F+ F 60% 10% 31% F F F+ F F F C- B- C
1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21
Jan
17		 Central Arkansas D F+ A+ C C- 24% 14% 63% D C- F F F C- B F+ C+ F D- F F+ F 33% 11% 56% D+ F F D F F C- F D
0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21 1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22
Jan
22		 Eastern Kentucky C B- A+ C+ C+ 45% 12% 43% A- B- B B- B D D- B- D+ F B- C- D- C- 43% 9% 48% F D D F F D+ C+ A+ A
1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22 1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12
Jan
24		 Bellarmine A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 9% 60% B A+ F A+ A- A- C+ A+ A- F F B- F F 55% 9% 36% F+ F C F F F B- C- C+
1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28 1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
29		 Stetson D B- C F F+ 44% 10% 46% B+ D- D A C D+ C+ A B F C+ D D- D 43% 13% 44% F D- F B+ D F D B+ C-
1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24 1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lipscomb A C F A+ A- 33% 5% 62% A A B+ A A C- C- A+ A- F F C+ F F 59% 5% 36% F F A- F D+ F B- D+ B-
1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25 1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +4 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15
Feb
5		 West Georgia C- C+ A A- B+ 45% 11% 43% C+ B+ D+ F F F D+ C D+ B- B A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 42% C A+ C- D D+ F B- C B-
1.09 63% 50% 39% +7 +2 1.19 26% 0.6 .15 22% .31 72% .22 0.98 50% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.67 30% 1.1 .34 3% .24 71% .17
Feb
7		 Queens D- F+ F A+ C 26% 19% 55% D- C- F F F F A+ C- A F F F B D+ 33% 15% 53% C+ C- F D- F F+ A- F C-
1.04 50% 11% 46% +3 -1 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 20% .45 72% .33 1.32 72% 50% 31% +4 0 1.11 41% 1.2 .50 12% .25 100% .25
Feb
11		 Florida Gulf Coast C+ F+ A C+ C- 29% 11% 61% C C- C+ F+ D+ B- B D+ B- F D F F F 42% 32% 26% C+ F D D+ D F F A+ F
1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27 1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25
Feb
14		 Jacksonville F F A+ A+ D- 64% 2% 33% A+ C- B- F+ C- F F F F C- A+ D C- C+ 35% 16% 49% C- C+ B- F F D- C F+ C-
0.96 48% 100% 43% -1 +4 1.10 33% 0.8 .26 22% .13 50% .07 1.08 40% 43% 33% -6 0 0.91 27% 2.1 .58 14% .28 79% .22
Feb
19		 Austin Peay F+ B B+ F F 41% 18% 41% C F D+ B C D A+ A A+ B B+ B- A+ A+ 63% 11% 27% F A- D+ F+ D- C- F C+ F
0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40 0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32
Feb
21		 Stetson D+ F A+ C+ C- 33% 20% 47% D D+ C B+ B- C- D+ F D- F+ F A+ F F 31% 13% 56% D- F F A+ C+ C B- A+ A-
1.11 50% 60% 35% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.3 .41 16% .26 64% .17 1.19 73% 17% 44% +11 +1 1.25 40% 0.6 .26 19% .25 54% .13
Feb
26		 Florida Gulf Coast C- C C+ F F 37% 10% 54% B- F C- B+ C+ C+ A+ A A+ C A+ D- A+ A+ 37% 23% 40% D A+ C- F F F D C- D
1.10 58% 40% 21% -10 +1 0.85 29% 1.2 .34 16% .45 81% .36 1.01 38% 46% 17% -16 0 0.70 30% 1.4 .41 7% .30 74% .22
Feb
28		 Jacksonville F F+ D F F 51% 6% 43% A F F F F D+ B- D- C F B- F C- F 45% 23% 32% C- F F C- F B- A F B+
0.88 52% 33% 24% -10 +3 0.88 19% 0.6 .11 16% .40 65% .26 1.23 52% 69% 33% +4 0 1.11 53% 1.1 .57 19% .20 82% .16
Mar
4		 West Georgia C C+ A+ F D- 31% 15% 54% D D- F A+ D A+ C+ A+ A- F F A+ F F 34% 23% 43% F+ F F D+ F C- F D F
1.13 61% 56% 25% -4 0 0.95 17% 1.3 .23 7% .34 88% .30 1.24 78% 25% 43% +10 -1 1.21 39% 1.1 .42 16% .36 74% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 100.0% 100.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%