North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.9 339
Expected Predictive Rating -14.0 350
Pace 75.6 28
Improvement +3.1 72

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 201 C+ C- D+ D B-
Defense F 365 D F F B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 311 C- 56% 212 -3.3 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 318 B- 41% 75 -2.6 303
Three Pointers 53% 8 C+ 34% 155 +6.7 20
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 95 C +0.2 164
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 143
Second Chance D 25.4% 317 B 1.12 62 C- 0.28 242
Turnovers D+ 18.7% 298
Freethrows F+ 0.24 350 A- 79% 7 D 0.19 312
Total Offense C- -1.3 201

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 200 D+ 12.6% 278
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 274 C- 6.4% 271
Three Pointers F 69% 362 F 2.2% 353
Total C- 53% 237 C- 6.3% 252

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 D 62% 295 +3.7 302
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 320 F 48% 361 -0.2 172
Three Pointers 42% 132 C 34% 204 +1.0 235
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 313 D +3.5 311
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 320
Second Chance F+ 36.8% 354 F 1.22 361 F 0.45 362
Turnovers F 12.2% 362
Freethrows C+ 0.28 117 B- 71% 89 B- 0.20 99
Total Defense F -10.6 365

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 190 F 3.9% 364
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 159 D- 1.9% 331
Three Pointers D+ 86% 254 D 0.3% 310
Total C 56% 205 F 2.0% 363

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 145 15.9 12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 274 0.24 349
Improvement -0.2 #194 +3.3 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 348 338 324
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 7 - 11
Conference Finish 11 11 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 22% 6% 31%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stetson (Away) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 46 - 136 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 4 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  3% 0 - 1 D- -14 D -5 F A- D- D+ -3 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  6% 0 - 2 D- -11 D+ -3 C- B F D -6 C+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 230 @Wofford L 78 - 86 15% -1  42% 0 - 3 D -9 D+ -4 B- F C D -5 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 245 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 24% +0  52% 0 - 4 D- -13 B +6 A+ F F F -19 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 334 Prairie View L 82 - 85 48% +5  83% 0 - 5 D- -14 C- -1 A+ C- F F -13 D- C D+
 Tue, Dec 2 248 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 35% -1  28% 0 - 6 F+ -17 D- -7 D+ C- D- F -10 D F F
 Sun, Dec 7 10 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  1% 0 - 7 F -29 F -12 D+ C- D- F -12 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 88 @Dayton L 61 - 84 3% -21  8% 0 - 8 D- -14 D- -7 F B- C D- -7 F C+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 258 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 19% -12  0% 0 - 9 F -25 C+ +3 B- D C+ F -25 F B- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 40 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  3% 0 - 10 F -22 D -5 D- B F F -14 F+ F+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 197 Columbia L 82 - 90 26% -1  31% 0 - 11 D- -13 C +1 B- F+ B F -14 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 154 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 9% -8  9% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F+ -16 C+ +2 B- F+ C- F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 190 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 12% -2  40% 0 - 13 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 C- D- C- D -6 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 318 West Georgia L 73 - 85 53% -6  0% 0 - 14 0 - 3 F -25 F -10 F A+ F+ F -14 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 204 Queens L 82 - 89 28% -2  27% 0 - 15 0 - 4 D- -13 D -4 C D B+ F+ -8 C+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 15 340 @North Alabama W 105 - 91 39% +10  80% 1 - 15 1 - 4 B- +5 A+ +24 A+ A- A F -19 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 180 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 98 11% -23  1% 1 - 16 1 - 5 F -27 D- -6 D+ F C F -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 278 Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 85 42% +2  67% 2 - 16 2 - 5 D+ -8 C+ +3 B B D+ F -11 D- F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 287 Bellarmine W 117 - 114 OT 44% +6  86% 3 - 16 3 - 5 D+ -7 A+ +16 A+ A- A- F -24 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 327 Stetson L 77 - 84 57% -6  2% 3 - 17 3 - 6 F -21 D -6 D- C C- F -15 F+ D F
 Sat, Jan 31 190 Lipscomb L 94 - 100 25% +2  58% 3 - 18 3 - 7 D -11 A +13 A A- C F -24 F D+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 318 @West Georgia W 81 - 73 31% -1  30% 4 - 18 4 - 7 C +1 D+ -2 B F F B- +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 204 @Queens L 72 - 91 13% -5  22% 4 - 19 4 - 8 F -19 D- -7 D+ F F F -12 C- F F+
 Wed, Feb 11 253 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 90 18% -7  9% 4 - 20 4 - 9 D -11 C +0 C- D+ B- F -11 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 308 @Jacksonville L 56 - 63 28% -4  4% 4 - 21 4 - 10 D- -13 F -10 C- C- F D+ -4 C+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 19 154 Austin Peay L 76 - 77 20% +5  77% 4 - 22 4 - 11 C- -4 D- -8 F C C- B +4 A- D- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 327 @Stetson L 81 - 85 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 253 Florida Gulf Coast L 83 - 87 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 308 Jacksonville L 76 - 77 50%
Totals 5 - 24 5 - 13 -12 C- -1 B C B- F -11 C+ A- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- C+ C 34% 24% 53% B- C+ D B C- D+ F+ A- D F D F C D 42% 16% 42% D D F+ F F F C+ B- B-
1.07 56% 41% 34% 0 +1 1.04 25% 1.1 .28 19% .24 79% .19 1.24 62% 48% 34% +3 +1 1.11 37% 1.2 .45 12% .28 71% .17
Nov
6		 Florida D F F F F 38% 17% 45% A- F D+ A+ A- D- A A+ A+ D+ D+ F A+ A+ 47% 3% 50% D A+ F F F B F+ A C-
0.80 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.69 17% 1.6 .26 20% .34 86% .30 1.30 67% 100% 14% -9 +3 0.90 63% 1.4 .87 18% .43 64% .27
Nov
12		 Tennessee D+ F+ B D- D+ 33% 9% 58% A- C- B- A- B F F F F D C+ F B+ B- 42% 15% 43% D+ C+ F F F C+ C- C C-
0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10 1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27
Nov
19		 Wofford D+ C F A B 36% 12% 53% C B- F B F C F D F D C- F A+ C+ 50% 4% 46% F C F F F D+ F+ A D+
1.07 57% 29% 42% +5 +1 1.14 12% 1.3 .15 15% .13 75% .10 1.18 58% 100% 25% -4 +3 1.00 36% 1.5 .56 14% .40 64% .25
Nov
22		 Southern Miss B A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 18% 58% D A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F D F A+ F 52% 30% 19% F+ F F D F F D- A+ C+
1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15 1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26
Nov
23		 Prairie View C- B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 11% 53% C+ A+ C D C- F B C- B F F D- B- F 24% 39% 37% A D- F A+ C D+ F B+ F
1.12 63% 80% 46% +16 +1 1.36 38% 1.0 .38 29% .42 73% .31 1.16 69% 43% 30% +2 -3 1.00 45% 0.5 .23 14% .52 70% .36
Dec
2		 SIU Edwardsville D- F B D+ D 35% 14% 51% B+ D+ F+ A+ C- D- F A+ F F B+ D- D C- 45% 15% 40% F D F B- F F F+ B+ D+
0.97 44% 43% 31% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.3 .30 18% .13 100% .13 1.10 48% 43% 37% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.9 .39 14% .34 63% .21
Dec
7		 Gonzaga F F A- F+ C- 9% 29% 62% F+ D+ D- B+ C- D- F+ F F F F A+ F F+ 40% 31% 29% B- D- F+ F F B- C+ D+ C
0.75 40% 44% 26% -7 -3 0.82 17% 1.0 .17 23% .22 62% .13 1.41 78% 28% 53% +13 -1 1.26 42% 1.8 .74 16% .28 72% .20
Dec
13		 Dayton D- F F+ F F 35% 20% 45% B- F B C B- C C D+ C- D- F F A- F 45% 9% 45% D F F A+ C+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20 1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13
Dec
18		 Charleston Southern C+ C B- C- C+ 40% 16% 44% B+ B- F A+ D C+ C A+ B F F F F F 25% 10% 65% B F A- D B- D- D F F
1.12 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 16% 1.5 .24 11% .35 80% .28 1.41 80% 50% 51% +24 0 1.50 23% 1.0 .23 15% .29 85% .25
Dec
21		 Miami (FL) D F+ F C F+ 27% 14% 59% B- D- C- A+ B F B A+ A+ F F F B+ F 47% 16% 36% C F+ F B- F+ D F C F
0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25 1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31
Dec
28		 Columbia C F+ A+ B+ B- 42% 10% 48% B+ B- F C+ F+ B F A+ D- F D- F F F 51% 12% 37% D- F A+ F A- F F+ F F
1.14 48% 67% 38% +2 +2 1.08 17% 1.0 .17 11% .19 92% .17 1.25 65% 50% 47% +13 +2 1.31 20% 1.2 .24 15% .35 81% .28
Jan
1		 Austin Peay C+ D- C+ A C+ 37% 10% 53% B B- F F+ F+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C+ F A C+ 39% 18% 44% C- C+ F F F F C- D D+
1.07 53% 40% 41% +4 +1 1.12 20% 0.6 .11 19% .43 81% .35 1.31 54% 55% 26% -4 0 0.95 40% 1.6 .65 8% .32 78% .25
Jan
3		 Lipscomb C- F B B- D+ 23% 12% 65% B- C- C- F D- C- F A+ F D A A+ C B+ 26% 18% 56% A A- F C F F F A D-
1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07 1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23
Jan
8		 West Georgia F A- F F F 41% 7% 52% B- F C- A+ A+ F+ F C+ F F D- F C- F 30% 36% 34% C+ F C+ F F F+ D- F F
1.02 70% 25% 21% -7 +2 0.93 29% 1.6 .47 18% .19 73% .14 1.19 63% 47% 33% +4 -3 1.06 29% 1.4 .42 13% .32 85% .27
Jan
10		 Queens D A B+ D C 38% 15% 47% C C F A D B+ F A+ F F+ D- A+ B+ B 45% 5% 49% F C+ F F F D- F+ C F+
1.13 70% 44% 32% +4 +1 1.12 23% 1.3 .29 12% .19 83% .16 1.23 68% 0% 30% -1 +2 1.05 38% 1.4 .54 12% .38 75% .28
Jan
15		 North Alabama A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% D+ A+ B- A- A- A C+ A+ A F D- D D- F 60% 10% 31% F F F+ F F F C- C+ C
1.49 69% 57% 45% +15 0 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 10% .30 95% .28 1.30 61% 40% 38% +4 +3 1.15 36% 1.6 .58 13% .33 65% .21
Jan
17		 Central Arkansas D- F+ A+ C C- 24% 14% 63% D+ D+ F F F C B D- C+ F D- F D- F 33% 11% 56% D+ F F D- F F C- F D
0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21 1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22
Jan
22		 Eastern Kentucky C+ B- A+ B- B- 45% 12% 43% A- B B B- B D+ D- B D+ F B- C- F+ D+ 43% 9% 48% F D- D+ F F D+ C+ A+ A
1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22 1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12
Jan
24		 Bellarmine A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 9% 60% B A+ F+ A+ A- A- C+ A+ A- F F B F F 55% 9% 36% F+ F C- F F F C+ C- C+
1.48 83% 80% 46% +22 +1 1.48 26% 2.0 .52 11% .33 87% .28 1.44 76% 33% 42% +13 +3 1.34 21% 1.8 .38 8% .27 80% .22
Jan
29		 Stetson D C+ C F F 44% 10% 46% B+ D- D A- C C- C+ A+ B+ F C D- D- D- 43% 13% 44% F F+ F B D F D+ B+ C-
1.11 65% 40% 25% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.3 .38 16% .29 82% .24 1.21 57% 43% 38% +2 +1 1.09 34% 0.9 .32 9% .32 65% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Lipscomb A C+ F A+ A- 33% 5% 62% A A B+ B+ A- C C- A+ B+ F F C F F 59% 5% 36% F F A F D+ F B C B
1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25 1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15
Feb
5		 West Georgia D+ C+ A B+ B 45% 11% 43% C+ B D F F F C- C C- B- B- A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 42% C- A+ C D+ C- F B- C B-
1.09 63% 50% 39% +7 +2 1.19 26% 0.6 .15 22% .31 72% .22 0.98 50% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.67 30% 1.1 .34 3% .24 71% .17
Feb
7		 Queens D- F+ F A+ C- 26% 19% 55% D- D+ F F+ F F A+ C- A F F F B D+ 33% 15% 53% C+ C- F D- F F+ B+ F C-
1.04 50% 11% 46% +3 -1 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 20% .45 72% .33 1.32 72% 50% 31% +4 0 1.11 41% 1.2 .50 12% .25 100% .25
Feb
11		 Florida Gulf Coast C F+ A+ C+ D+ 29% 11% 61% C+ C- C D- D+ B- B- D C+ F D+ F F F 42% 32% 26% C F D D+ D F F A+ F+
1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27 1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25
Feb
14		 Jacksonville F F A+ A D- 64% 2% 33% A+ C- B- F+ C- F F F F D+ A+ D C- B- 35% 16% 49% D+ C+ C+ F F F+ C F D+
0.96 48% 100% 43% 0 +4 1.10 33% 0.8 .26 22% .13 50% .07 1.08 40% 43% 33% -6 0 0.91 27% 2.1 .58 14% .28 79% .22
Feb
19		 Austin Peay D- B- B+ F F 41% 18% 41% C+ F D+ B+ C C- A+ A+ A+ B B+ B A+ A+ 63% 11% 27% F A- D+ D- D- D+ F C+ F
0.97 65% 44% 15% -8 0 0.88 27% 0.9 .24 19% .51 78% .40 0.99 49% 33% 20% -12 +3 0.84 30% 1.3 .40 15% .44 72% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 1.6 1.6 6th
7th 0.7 3.2 3.9 7th
8th 5.2 1.7 6.9 8th
9th 12.3 0.3 12.6 9th
10th 9.6 9.5 19.1 10th
11th 17.9 32.4 0.6 51.0 11th
12th 4.1 0.6 4.7 12th
Total 22.0 42.6 28.4 7.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-12 28.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.3
5-13 42.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 42.5
4-14 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 18.9%