Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #193
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 #254
Pace 70.0 #168
Improvement -0.7 #231

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #115 B D- C C+ D
Defense #309 D F C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.24 #90 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #84 0.87 #64 +3.3 #42
Three Pointers 40% #213 1.11 #66 +1.3 #135
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #80 +4.0 #79
Freethrows 14.3 #310 69% #275 9.9 #320
Second Chance 32.1% #132 1.01 #219 0.33 #157
Turnovers 16.0% #144
Total Offense +2.2 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.22 #256 -2.2 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #302 0.81 #261 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 44% #116 1.10 #284 -3.1 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -4.2 #302
Freethrows 22.5 #351 76% #327 17.2 #356
Second Chance 32.0% #240 1.00 #138 0.32 #191
Turnovers 17.1% #160
Total Defense -4.3 #309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #289 1.4% #295
Shot Type Make % Effect 9.8% #49 6.9% #296
Possession Length 17.1 #163 17.0 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #46 0.18 #208
Improvement +0.6 #142 -1.3 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 20.2% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 66.5% 78.2% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 93.3% 78.2%
Conference Champion 16.8% 23.1% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four2.6% 2.4% 2.8%
First Round16.1% 19.1% 12.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 616 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 8 @Illinois L 70-113 2%     -31.3   0 - 1 -19.6 +1.7 -18.4
  Tue, Nov 11 213 Georgia Southern L 94-95 66%     -3.3   0 - 2 -7.2 +12.5 -19.7
  Sat, Nov 15 252 Chattanooga W 91-73 72%     13.0   1 - 2 +10.0 +13.9 -3.7
  Wed, Nov 19 210 @Samford W 77-62 43%     9.3   2 - 2 +14.8 +5.3 +9.7
  Mon, Nov 24 306 Oral Roberts W 93-88 81%     0.4   3 - 2 -6.6 +9.5 -16.4
  Tue, Nov 25 264 Rice W 78-63 OT 74%     -4.1   4 - 2 +6.1 -8.7 +12.9
  Wed, Nov 26 151 Kennesaw St. L 100-102 OT 52%     -0.4   4 - 3 -4.7 +6.2 -10.5
  Wed, Dec 3 186 @Florida International L 83-89 37%     -5.5   4 - 4 -4.6 +3.9 -8.0
  Sun, Dec 7 106 Florida Atlantic L 76-81 37%     0.2   4 - 5 -3.6 +3.2 -6.8
  Sun, Dec 14 71 @New Mexico L 59-75 11%     -4.6   4 - 6 -5.0 -5.0 -0.4
  Sat, Dec 20 52 @Central Florida L 80-102 8%     -4.7   4 - 7 -8.4 +9.6 -17.4
  Thu, Jan 1 268 @Central Arkansas L 83-85 54%     3.1   4 - 8 0 - 1 -5.0 +16.5 -21.7
  Sat, Jan 3 266 @North Alabama W 76-75 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 194 Austin Peay W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 153 Lipscomb W 79-78 53%    
  Thu, Jan 15 236 Queens W 87-82 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 313 West Georgia W 84-74 82%    
  Thu, Jan 22 194 @Austin Peay L 74-77 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 153 @Lipscomb L 76-81 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 266 North Alabama W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 326 @Jacksonville W 76-71 67%    
  Thu, Feb 5 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 80-79 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 272 @Bellarmine W 80-79 55%    
  Wed, Feb 11 350 North Florida W 94-80 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 342 Stetson W 83-70 88%    
  Thu, Feb 19 326 Jacksonville W 79-68 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 268 Central Arkansas W 82-75 74%    
  Thu, Feb 26 350 @North Florida W 91-83 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 342 @Stetson W 80-73 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.8 4.1 1.8 0.4 16.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.9 6.7 3.3 0.9 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 6.3 7.1 2.6 0.3 17.3 3rd
4th 0.7 4.9 6.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 5.5 1.9 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.9 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.9 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.9 10.1 13.7 16.4 16.3 13.2 9.4 5.0 1.8 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 98.9% 1.8    1.6 0.1
15-3 82.9% 4.1    3.3 0.8 0.0
14-4 61.9% 5.8    2.9 2.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 28.1% 3.7    1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 9.6 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 47.6% 47.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.8% 34.5% 34.5% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-3 5.0% 34.2% 34.2% 14.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.0 3.3
14-4 9.4% 31.7% 31.7% 14.7 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 6.4
13-5 13.2% 23.5% 23.5% 15.1 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 10.1
12-6 16.3% 20.0% 20.0% 15.3 0.2 1.8 1.3 13.0
11-7 16.4% 14.7% 14.7% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 14.0
10-8 13.7% 10.6% 10.6% 15.8 0.3 1.1 12.3
9-9 10.1% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 9.3
8-10 6.9% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.5
7-11 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.7
6-12 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 7.4 6.4 82.8 0.0%