Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.9 251
Results Rating -6.0 260
Pace 69.4 152
Improvement -3.7 317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 208 C C C D D
Defense D+ 281 D+ C- C- D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 C+ 60% 134 -2.0 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 80 B- 42% 66 +3.2 43
Three Pointers 39% 227 C 34% 206 -1.4 231
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 316 C+ +1.2 126
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 174
Second Chance C 30.2% 187 C 1.04 152 C 0.32 165
Turnovers C 17.2% 210
Freethrows D 0.27 305 C 72% 187 D 0.19 295
Total Offense C- -1.4 208

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 202 D 13.4% 313
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 104 B- 3.4% 67
Three Pointers B- 88% 81 C+ 0.7% 146
Total C 55% 193 C 5.8% 208

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 206 C- 60% 219 +0.1 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 288 C 39% 212 -1.3 89
Three Pointers 45% 65 D+ 36% 264 +3.4 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 242 D+ +1.9 251
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 254
Second Chance C 30.5% 188 C- 1.07 251 C- 0.33 225
Turnovers C- 16.2% 215
Freethrows D 0.36 319 D 75% 302 D- 0.27 330
Total Defense D+ -3.5 281

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 89 B- 13.1% 88
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 331 C+ 5.5% 126
Three Pointers C 83% 152 D+ 0.5% 263
Total C- 57% 210 C+ 6.1% 138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 156 17.0 141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 104 0.19 232
Improvement -4.9 #353 +1.2 #114

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 270 251 225
Results Rating Rank 300 257 234
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 9% 12% 4%
.500 or above in Conference 86% 100% 60%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 5%
First Round5% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 64.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 5 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0% 0 - 1 F+ -17 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -13 F+ F+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 266 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 65% -3  22% 0 - 2 D -10 B+ +9 C+ A+ C+ F -19 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 274 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 66% +13  97% 1 - 2 B +9 A +11 B A+ B C- -2 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 190 @Samford W 77 - 62 28% +9  93% 2 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 B A+ F A+ +15 A B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 335 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 82% +0  52% 3 - 2 D -9 B +7 A- A- D+ F -16 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 232 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 58% -4  10% 4 - 2 B +8 F -12 D F+ F A+ +18 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 165 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 44% -0  40% 4 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 C+ C- B D- -8 F B+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 184 @Florida International L 83 - 89 27% -6  6% 4 - 4 C- -5 C+ +3 D+ C+ B D- -7 C D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 116 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 32% +0  46% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C+ +2 B+ C+ F D- -8 B C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 47 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 5% -5  33% 4 - 6 C- -2 D- -8 D+ D+ B- B+ +6 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 20 51 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 5% -5  30% 4 - 7 D -8 B +7 A+ D F+ F -14 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 183 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 27% +3  69% 4 - 8 0 - 1 C -0 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- F -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 67% +8  94% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 D- -7 C F+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 157 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 43% -3  22% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 D+ -4 C+ C+ F+ F -11 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 188 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 49% -1  30% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 B- C- B F -10 D D- B
 Thu, Jan 15 212 Queens L 74 - 85 54% -6  14% 5 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -17 F -10 F C A D -6 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 317 West Georgia W 90 - 72 77% +3  69% 6 - 11 2 - 4 B- +5 B+ +8 B+ A+ D C- -2 D A F+
 Thu, Jan 22 157 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 23% -12  2% 6 - 12 2 - 5 F -18 F+ -8 C- C+ F F -11 D F+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 188 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 27% -5  31% 6 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 B- +5 D A+ B+ F -20 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 342 North Alabama W 72 - 64 84% +8  87% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -7 D- -7 D+ D F C+ +1 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 306 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 53% +3  54% 8 - 13 4 - 6 B+ +13 D -5 F+ C+ B- A+ +20 A A A+
 Thu, Feb 5 279 @Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 76 45% +6  71% 8 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -6 D- -7 C F F C+ +1 C+ F+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 285 @Bellarmine L 65 - 81 48% -6  14% 8 - 15 4 - 8 F -20 F -17 F F C- D+ -4 F A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 340 North Florida W 90 - 81 83% +7  86% 9 - 15 5 - 8 D+ -6 C- -1 B D- B- D -5 C C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 326 Stetson W 78 - 76 80% +0  43% 10 - 15 6 - 8 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ C- D+ F+ -9 D- F D
 Wed, Feb 18 306 Jacksonville W 86 - 84 74% +4  84% 11 - 15 7 - 8 D -10 A- +11 B+ B- B+ F -21 F B F
 Sat, Feb 21 183 Central Arkansas W 75 - 71 OT 48% -1  39% 12 - 15 8 - 8 C -0 D -4 F B A+ B +4 A F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 340 @North Florida W 86 - 82 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 326 @Stetson W 78 - 75 61%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -5 C- -1 F+ C+ D D+ -3 C C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ B- C C+ 34% 47% 39% D C C C C C D C D D+ C- C D+ D+ 38% 17% 45% C- D+ C C- C- C- D D D-
1.07 60% 42% 34% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .32 17% .27 72% .19 1.14 60% 39% 36% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 16% .36 75% .20
Nov
7		 Illinois C- C D D+ C- 20% 45% 35% F D+ C F D- A+ C A+ B F F C- D+ F 38% 13% 49% C F+ B- F F+ D- F F F
0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15 1.51 86% 43% 37% +13 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44
Nov
11		 Georgia Southern B+ C- A B B- 39% 20% 41% D C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ F F F F F F F F 34% 6% 60% D+ F A- D B C- B A- B+
1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08 1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19
Nov
15		 Chattanooga A A A+ D+ B+ 34% 28% 38% D- B B+ A A+ B F A+ D- C- B B+ B- B+ 42% 6% 52% F B- C A+ B+ D+ F B+ F
1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21 1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35
Nov
19		 Samford C+ D- A+ B- B+ 38% 40% 23% D B A+ C- A+ F C F D+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A F A+ B- C+ D A+ B-
1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19 0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22
Nov
24		 Oral Roberts B A+ A D A+ 36% 30% 34% F A- A- C+ A- D+ A+ C A+ F F+ C- F F 46% 10% 44% F+ F D- F F+ A+ F D+ F
1.26 82% 50% 31% +11 -1 1.21 41% 1.2 .48 16% .55 71% .39 1.19 64% 40% 48% +12 +2 1.29 31% 1.1 .35 24% .45 76% .34
Nov
25		 Rice F F+ F A+ D 34% 30% 36% C D D F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ D C A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% F A A+ F A- A+ D+ B C-
0.98 53% 20% 44% -2 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38 0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21
Nov
26		 Kennesaw St. C+ D+ C A B- 42% 20% 38% C- C+ D+ C+ C- B A+ D+ A D- F+ F C F 49% 7% 44% F+ F C- A+ B+ A F F F
1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37 1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +2 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43
Dec
3		 Florida International C+ C+ F+ F D 49% 11% 40% B+ D+ B+ D+ C+ B B- A+ A D- C+ A- C- C+ 40% 14% 46% D+ C B+ F D- C F F F
1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29 1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48
Dec
7		 Florida Atlantic C+ B+ A+ D- B+ 47% 14% 39% B- B+ C+ C C+ F C- A+ B+ D- C+ A+ C+ B+ 44% 17% 40% D B F+ A+ C+ C F F F
1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26 1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
14		 New Mexico D- D- C+ D C- 12% 24% 63% D- D+ D+ D D+ B- D+ F D- B+ A F A+ A+ 35% 4% 61% D+ A+ F A+ C- A- F F F
0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16 1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43
Dec
20		 Central Florida B F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 48% C- A+ D D+ D F+ F F F F B+ A F F 36% 12% 52% D- F F A D+ C- A A+ A+
1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05 1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11
Jan
1		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 27% 16% 57% D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A- D- A+ C+ F D- B F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F+ F F F F F F F
1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20 1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
3		 North Alabama D- C- B- A- C+ 40% 21% 38% D C D- D- F+ F F B F A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A+ A+ A A+ D- F C F
1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13 0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31
Jan
8		 Austin Peay D+ C- A+ D+ B 24% 31% 45% F C+ D+ B+ C+ F+ C+ D C- F A- A+ F+ C- 35% 10% 54% D C- D+ F F D+ F C+ F
1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20 1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31
Jan
10		 Lipscomb C- C+ A+ F+ B 35% 38% 27% F B- D B+ C- B B- F C F A- A+ F D- 39% 12% 49% C D C- F D- B F F F
1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20 1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31
Jan
15		 Queens F D- C+ F F 42% 25% 32% D F D A C A C A+ A+ D C- F A- B 40% 8% 53% D- B- C- C+ C F F D F
1.04 52% 40% 16% -11 0 0.80 29% 1.3 .36 10% .34 100% .34 1.20 62% 50% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 11% .45 79% .35
Jan
17		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A 43% 30% 26% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D A+ B- A+ C- D B- C D 26% 25% 49% D D B+ A+ A F+ D A+ C+
1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46 1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Jan
22		 Austin Peay F+ C C C C- 37% 27% 37% D C- A- D C+ F F F F F C+ F C- F+ 28% 24% 48% A- D D- D F+ F B+ C B
0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08 1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19
Jan
23		 Lipscomb B- A+ F B- D+ 17% 28% 54% F+ D C A+ A+ B+ A F+ B+ F B- A+ F F 19% 15% 66% A F F F F C- F+ F F
1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24 1.36 56% 0% 55% +14 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
29		 North Alabama D- D A- C C- 27% 20% 53% F+ D+ D+ D- D F F A+ D+ C+ F A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B+ B- F F D+ F D F
1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19 0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Jacksonville D D+ F B F+ 48% 25% 27% C- F+ F+ A+ C+ B- A- F C+ A+ C F A+ A 34% 30% 36% A A B- A+ A A+ C- A+ B+
1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26 0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16
Feb
5		 Eastern Kentucky D- A+ B- D C+ 21% 25% 54% F+ C D+ F F F F B F C+ F A B+ C 16% 22% 61% B- C+ C- F F+ B- F F F
1.06 91% 46% 32% +7 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35
Feb
7		 Bellarmine F D+ A- F F 19% 32% 49% F F D- F F C- D- F+ F+ D+ D F F F 35% 12% 53% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D C- D- D+
0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18 1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
11		 North Florida C- B- A A+ A- 42% 32% 26% F B D+ D D- B- A+ F B+ D B+ F C- C 29% 11% 61% C C D- A C D- F A F
1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25 1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27
Feb
14		 Stetson D+ C- F+ B+ D+ 43% 21% 36% C D+ D+ C+ C- D+ F D+ F F+ A+ F F D+ 52% 15% 33% F D- C F F D B+ F B-
1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12 1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18
Feb
18		 Jacksonville A- A A+ F A- 50% 26% 24% C- B+ A D B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F F F F F 44% 25% 31% C+ F A D- B F F A+ D-
1.31 74% 58% 27% +11 0 1.24 40% 0.8 .33 12% .48 75% .36 1.28 81% 50% 40% +16 0 1.33 21% 1.2 .24 12% .45 54% .24
Feb
21		 Central Arkansas D C+ F+ F F 40% 17% 43% C F C- A+ B A+ F+ F F B A- A B+ A 34% 15% 51% C A B- F F+ C- D+ F D-
1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11 0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 11.3 46.1 39.8 97.2 5th
6th 2.8 2.8 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 14.1 46.1 39.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 39.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.0 1.2 1.5 37.1
9-9 46.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 2.8 43.3
8-10 14.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.7 13.5
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 15.8 93.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 15.6 0.4 43.9 55.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.7%
Lose Out 7.9%