Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#213
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#131
Pace75.9#44
Improvement-1.3#279

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#191
First Shot+1.2#140
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#274
Layup/Dunks-2.2#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#60
Freethrows+2.8#39
Improvement-2.0#319

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#229
First Shot-3.9#294
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#52
Layups/Dunks-3.7#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#241
Freethrows+0.7#149
Improvement+0.7#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 12.3% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 80.9% 87.5% 70.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 80.6% 72.3%
Conference Champion 11.8% 13.9% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.0% 1.6%
First Four1.5% 1.2% 1.9%
First Round10.3% 11.8% 8.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 415 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 33   @ Loyola Chicago L 77-89 7%     0 - 1 +2.8 +10.1 -7.0
  Nov 16, 2021 14   USC L 61-78 10%     0 - 2 -4.5 -3.5 -1.5
  Nov 23, 2021 77   Rhode Island W 67-66 29%     1 - 2 +4.7 +3.5 +1.3
  Nov 26, 2021 303   Western Michigan W 77-67 80%     2 - 2 -0.9 -2.5 +1.7
  Nov 27, 2021 315   SE Louisiana W 90-71 83%     3 - 2 +6.9 +2.6 +2.5
  Nov 28, 2021 271   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-78 75%     4 - 2 -1.9 +2.4 -4.5
  Dec 01, 2021 215   @ Florida International L 61-77 39%     4 - 3 -15.0 -10.7 -3.8
  Dec 04, 2021 250   Dartmouth W 78-68 OT 71%     5 - 3 +2.4 -6.7 +7.7
  Dec 07, 2021 301   @ Florida A&M W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 11, 2021 307   @ Robert Morris W 78-75 63%    
  Dec 19, 2021 177   Mercer W 75-73 56%    
  Dec 22, 2021 290   @ Canisius W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 04, 2022 308   North Florida W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 251   @ Jacksonville L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 11, 2022 283   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 134   Liberty L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 18, 2022 275   @ Stetson W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 22, 2022 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 27, 2022 163   Eastern Kentucky W 84-83 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 195   Bellarmine W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 03, 2022 338   @ Central Arkansas W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 05, 2022 239   @ Lipscomb L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 09, 2022 311   North Alabama W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 275   Stetson W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 16, 2022 283   Kennesaw St. W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 308   @ North Florida W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 134   @ Liberty L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 251   Jacksonville W 71-65 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.0 2.8 1.0 0.2 11.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.4 5.0 2.0 0.3 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.2 6.0 1.9 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.6 6.3 2.2 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 6.3 2.4 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.0 0.2 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.6 9.6 13.0 15.1 15.3 13.5 10.0 6.2 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.0
14-2 91.1% 2.8    2.1 0.6 0.0
13-3 65.2% 4.0    2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 29.3% 2.9    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-5 6.1% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 6.1 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 49.1% 49.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 33.1% 33.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-2 3.0% 29.7% 29.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.1
13-3 6.2% 25.3% 25.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 4.6
12-4 10.0% 19.7% 19.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 8.1
11-5 13.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 11.5
10-6 15.3% 11.0% 11.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 13.6
9-7 15.1% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 14.0
8-8 13.0% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 12.2
7-9 9.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 9.2
6-10 6.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 6.4
5-11 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-12 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-13 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.4 4.0 88.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.7 9.1 9.1 4.5 4.5 40.9 18.2 13.6