Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #223
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #264
Pace 69.0 #172
Improvement -3.4 #319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 C C C D+ D
Defense #267 C- C C D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.19 #124 -1.8 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #65 0.81 #102 +3.0 #48
Three Pointers 39% #223 1.05 #131 -0.4 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #148 +0.8 #150
Freethrows 0.26 #301 73% #157 0.19 #279
Second Chance 30.3% #190 1.06 #123 0.32 #152
Turnovers 17.0% #196
Total Offense -0.5 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #215 1.21 #252 -0.4 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #294 0.72 #106 +1.7 #59
Three Pointers 46% #56 1.07 #264 -3.6 #321
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #261 -2.3 #258
Freethrows 0.35 #317 76% #333 0.27 #333
Second Chance 31.2% #209 1.02 #170 0.32 #192
Turnovers 16.6% #182
Total Defense -3.0 #267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #313 0.8% #243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #111 3.6% #250
Possession Length 17.2 #158 17.0 #152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #100 0.18 #214
Improvement -4.7 #355 +1.3 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.1% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 32.9% 48.8% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 88.9% 63.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four4.1% 3.1% 4.9%
First Round9.1% 10.7% 7.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 414 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0 - 1 -19 +1 D+ D- A+ -18 F+ D- D-
 Tue, Nov 11 260 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 69% -3  0 - 2 -10 +12 C A+ C+ -21 F B+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 277 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 72% +13  1 - 2 +8 +14 B- A+ B+ -6 C+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 240 @Samford W 77 - 62 42% +9  2 - 2 +14 +3 B- A F +11 A- C+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 335 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 84% +0  3 - 2 -9 +9 A- B+ C- -18 F F+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 233 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 64% -4  4 - 2 +8 -10 D F+ F+ +16 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 142 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 44% -0  4 - 3 -4 +6 B- C- B- -10 F B+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 186 @Florida International L 83 - 89 33% -6  4 - 4 -5 +5 C- C B- -9 C D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 108 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 33% +0  4 - 5 -4 +5 B C+ F+ -9 B B- C
 Sun, Dec 14 45 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 6% -5  4 - 6 -1 -4 C- D+ B- +2 A+ C A
 Sat, Dec 20 48 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 6% -5  4 - 7 -7 +10 A+ D+ D- -17 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 1 221 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 38% +3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -2 +18 A+ C+ B -20 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 326 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 64% +8  5 - 8 1 - 1 +10 -3 B- F F +14 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 173 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 53% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -15 -1 C C+ D -14 D+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 176 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 53% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -11 +0 B- D+ B- -12 D- D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 207 Queens L 74 - 85 60% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -17 -7 F C A -10 C+ C F
 Sat, Jan 17 325 West Georgia W 90 - 72 82% +3  6 - 11 2 - 4 +5 +9 B+ A+ D -5 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 173 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 30% -12  6 - 12 2 - 5 -19 -5 C- C+ F -15 D- F+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 176 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 31% -5  6 - 13 2 - 6 -13 +7 D+ A+ B -22 F F C
 Thu, Jan 29 326 North Alabama W 72 - 64 82% +8  7 - 13 3 - 6 -5 -4 C D- F -1 B F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 295 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 55% +3  8 - 13 4 - 6 +14 -1 F+ B- B- +17 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 265 @Eastern Kentucky L 78 - 79 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 303 @Bellarmine W 80 - 78 56%
 Wed, Feb 11 351 North Florida W 92 - 80 87%
 Sat, Feb 14 329 Stetson W 80 - 70 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 295 Jacksonville W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 Central Arkansas W 78 - 75 61%
 Thu, Feb 26 351 @North Florida W 89 - 83 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 329 @Stetson W 77 - 73 64%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3 +0 C C C -3 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.6 2.7 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 6.4 8.9 2.1 18.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 16.1 19.9 6.2 0.2 45.3 5th
6th 0.5 6.9 6.8 0.9 0.0 15.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 4.7 0.7 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 1.0 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.4 15.5 24.7 27.6 17.7 5.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 5.7% 18.0% 18.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.7
11-7 17.7% 14.4% 14.4% 15.4 0.1 1.5 1.0 15.2
10-8 27.6% 12.3% 12.3% 15.7 0.9 2.5 24.3
9-9 24.7% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5 22.2
8-10 15.5% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.0 14.6
7-11 6.4% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 6.2
6-12 2.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.9
5-13 0.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.6 89.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 14.1 0.5 13.0 58.0 28.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%