Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#188
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#214
Pace61.7#344
Improvement+2.4#38

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#200
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#139
Layup/Dunks+2.2#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#48
Freethrows-6.4#362
Improvement+2.4#28

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot-0.2#179
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#202
Layups/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#295
Freethrows+0.8#134
Improvement+0.0#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 17.2% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.8 14.7
.500 or above 56.4% 78.6% 54.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 93.0% 86.9%
Conference Champion 14.1% 20.4% 13.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four1.4% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round11.6% 17.0% 11.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 412 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 34%     0 - 1 -5.9 -1.3 -5.4
  Nov 08, 2024 78   @ TCU L 51-67 14%     0 - 2 -5.9 -9.9 +2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 88   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 33%     0 - 3 -5.9 -3.9 -2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 73   @ Drake L 61-63 13%     0 - 4 +8.7 +1.8 +6.6
  Nov 22, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-54 72%     1 - 4 +12.6 +12.7 +4.0
  Nov 23, 2024 152   Northeastern L 55-59 55%     1 - 5 -6.5 -11.1 +4.1
  Nov 24, 2024 253   Florida International W 60-59 74%     2 - 5 -7.0 -8.9 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 92   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-78 17%     3 - 5 +10.8 +15.7 -4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 119   Furman L 73-76 46%     3 - 6 -3.3 +4.7 -8.2
  Dec 08, 2024 47   @ LSU L 62-77 8%    
  Dec 18, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-70 30%    
  Dec 28, 2024 186   @ Richmond L 64-67 38%    
  Jan 02, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 290   @ Queens W 72-70 59%    
  Jan 09, 2025 214   North Alabama W 70-66 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 16, 2025 349   West Georgia W 74-60 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 290   Queens W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 23, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 329   Stetson W 75-64 85%    
  Feb 06, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 105   @ Lipscomb L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 18, 2025 212   Jacksonville W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 329   @ Stetson W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 24, 2025 182   North Florida W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 74-62 85%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 4.2 3.0 1.1 0.2 14.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.8 6.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.5 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.4 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.6 6.0 9.0 12.4 14.4 15.3 13.9 10.9 6.7 3.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.3% 1.1    1.1 0.1
16-2 86.3% 3.0    2.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 62.8% 4.2    2.5 1.5 0.2
14-4 34.2% 3.7    1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 7.8 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 38.6% 38.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 36.2% 36.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.5% 29.3% 29.3% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.5
15-3 6.7% 26.3% 26.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.9
14-4 10.9% 20.2% 20.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 8.7
13-5 13.9% 15.1% 15.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 11.8
12-6 15.3% 11.6% 11.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 13.5
11-7 14.4% 8.1% 8.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 13.2
10-8 12.4% 6.9% 6.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 11.5
9-9 9.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 8.6
8-10 6.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.9
7-11 3.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.3 3.9 2.7 88.0 0.0%