Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.0 269
Results Rating -7.0 278
Consistency 0.14 135
Pace 69.1 162
Improvement -5.8 352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 244 C- C C D D
Defense D+ 270 D+ C- C- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 298 C 58% 169 -2.3 264
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 74 B- 41% 80 +3.0 46
Three Pointers 38% 230 C- 33% 237 -2.0 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 316 C +0.1 161
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 206
Second Chance C 29.4% 204 C 1.04 165 C 0.31 185
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 186
Other Turnovers C 7.5% 214
Turnovers C 16.9% 196
Freethrows D 0.26 312 C 72% 197 D 0.19 296
Total Offense C- -2.7 244

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 207 D 13.3% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 117 B 3.3% 58
Three Pointers B- 88% 90 C+ 0.8% 153
Total C 54% 199 C 5.7% 208


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 199 C- 59% 215 +0.3 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 288 C- 40% 246 -1.1 98
Three Pointers 45% 77 D+ 36% 264 +3.0 315
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 249 D+ +1.8 254
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 256
Second Chance C 30.6% 195 D+ 1.09 277 C- 0.33 242
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.4% 108
Other Turnovers D- 5.9% 345
Turnovers C- 16.3% 205
Freethrows D 0.36 320 D+ 74% 294 D- 0.26 329
Total Defense D+ -3.3 270

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 89 B- 13.3% 86
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 335 C 5.2% 138
Three Pointers C 84% 176 C- 0.8% 180
Total C- 57% 219 C+ 6.3% 121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 154 17.0 132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 125 0.19 254
Consistency 0.12 154 0.15 348
Improvement -7.0 363 +1.2 126

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 282 271 252
Results Rating Rank 298 293 253
Conference Record 8 - 10 8 - 10 8 - 10
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 14% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four5% 14% 0%
First Round3% 8% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 411 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 5 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0% 0 - 1 F+ -18 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -14 F F+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 260 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 60% -3  22% 0 - 2 D -10 B+ +9 C+ A+ C+ F -19 F B C
 Sat, Nov 15 286 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 66% +13  97% 1 - 2 B- +8 A- +11 B A+ B- C- -3 B- B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 191 @Samford W 77 - 62 25% +9  93% 2 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 B A F A+ +14 A B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 318 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 74% +0  52% 3 - 2 D+ -8 B +7 A- A- D+ F -15 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 222 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 52% -4  10% 4 - 2 B +8 F -12 D F+ F A+ +18 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 157 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 38% -0  40% 4 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 C+ C- B D- -7 F+ B+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 199 @Florida International L 83 - 89 26% -6  6% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 D C+ B D- -7 C D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 126 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 30% +0  46% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C+ +2 B+ C+ F D- -7 B C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 50 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 4% -5  33% 4 - 6 C- -2 D- -7 D+ D+ B- B +5 A+ D+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 51 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 4% -5  30% 4 - 7 D+ -8 B +6 A+ D F+ F -13 F D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 171 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 22% +3  69% 4 - 8 0 - 1 C +0 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- F -16 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 63% +8  94% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 D- -7 C F+ F A+ +14 A+ A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 177 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 42% -3  22% 5 - 9 1 - 2 F+ -15 D -5 C C F+ F -10 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 195 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 47% -1  30% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C+ C B F -10 D- D- B+
 Thu, Jan 15 202 Queens L 74 - 85 47% -6  14% 5 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -16 F -10 F C A D -6 B- C- F+
 Sat, Jan 17 308 West Georgia W 90 - 72 71% +3  69% 6 - 11 2 - 4 B- +6 B+ +8 B+ A+ D C- -2 D+ A F+
 Thu, Jan 22 177 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 22% -12  2% 6 - 12 2 - 5 F -19 F+ -10 D+ C F F -10 D F+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 195 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 25% -5  31% 6 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 B- +4 D- A+ B+ F -20 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 342 North Alabama W 72 - 64 81% +8  87% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -7 D- -7 D+ D- F C +0 B F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 293 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 45% +3  54% 8 - 13 4 - 6 B+ +14 D -5 F+ C+ C+ A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 288 @Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 76 43% +6  71% 8 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -6 D- -7 C F F C+ +1 C+ F B-
 Sat, Feb 7 285 @Bellarmine L 65 - 81 42% -6  14% 8 - 15 4 - 8 F -20 F -18 F F C- C- -3 F A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 339 North Florida W 90 - 81 81% +7  86% 9 - 15 5 - 8 D+ -6 C- -1 B+ D- B- D -6 C- C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 320 Stetson W 78 - 76 74% +0  43% 10 - 15 6 - 8 D -11 D+ -3 D+ C- D+ D- -8 D F D
 Wed, Feb 18 293 Jacksonville W 86 - 84 68% +4  84% 11 - 15 7 - 8 D -9 A- +11 B+ B- B F -20 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 171 Central Arkansas W 75 - 71 OT 41% -1  39% 12 - 15 8 - 8 C +0 D -5 F B A+ B +5 A F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 339 @North Florida L 70 - 76 63% +1  48% 12 - 16 8 - 9 F+ -15 F -13 F C- A C- -2 A D D
 Sat, Feb 28 320 @Stetson L 63 - 78 53% -7  4% 12 - 17 8 - 10 F -22 F -15 F+ F B- D- -7 F F A
 Wed, Mar 4 342 North Alabama W 75 - 69 73%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 10 -6 C- -3 A+ C D D+ -3 C- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B- C- C 34% 48% 38% D C- C C C C D C D D+ C- C- D+ D+ 38% 17% 45% D+ D+ C D+ C- C- D D+ D-
1.05 58% 41% 33% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .31 17% .26 72% .19 1.13 59% 40% 36% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.1 .33 16% .36 74% .20
Nov
7		 Illinois C- C D- D+ C- 20% 45% 35% F D+ C F D- A+ C A+ B F F C- D+ F 38% 13% 49% C F B- F F+ D- F F F
0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15 1.51 86% 43% 37% +13 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44
Nov
11		 Georgia Southern B+ C- A+ B C+ 39% 20% 41% D C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ F F F F F F F F 34% 6% 60% D+ F A- D+ B C B- A- B+
1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08 1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19
Nov
15		 Chattanooga A- A A+ D+ B+ 34% 28% 38% D- B B+ A A+ B- F A+ D C- B B+ B- B+ 42% 6% 52% F B- C A+ B+ C- F B+ F
1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21 1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35
Nov
19		 Samford C+ D- A+ C+ B+ 38% 40% 23% D- B A+ D+ A F C F D+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A F A+ B- C+ D- A+ B-
1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19 0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22
Nov
24		 Oral Roberts B A+ A D A+ 36% 30% 34% F A- A- B- A- D+ A+ C+ A+ F F+ C- F F 46% 10% 44% F+ F D F F+ A+ F D+ F
1.26 82% 50% 31% +11 -1 1.21 41% 1.2 .48 16% .55 71% .39 1.19 64% 40% 48% +12 +2 1.29 31% 1.1 .35 24% .45 76% .34
Nov
25		 Rice F D- F A+ D 34% 30% 36% C- D D F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ D+ C A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% F A A+ F A- A+ D+ B+ C
0.98 53% 20% 44% -2 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38 0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21
Nov
26		 Kennesaw St. C+ D+ C A B- 42% 20% 38% C C+ D+ C+ C- B A+ D A D- F+ F C+ F+ 49% 7% 44% F+ F+ C- A+ B+ A F F F
1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37 1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +2 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43
Dec
3		 Florida International C+ C+ F+ F D- 49% 11% 40% B+ D B+ D+ C+ B B- A+ A- D- C+ A- C C+ 40% 14% 46% D C B F D- C F F F
1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29 1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48
Dec
7		 Florida Atlantic C+ B+ A+ D- B+ 47% 14% 39% B- B+ C+ C C+ F C- A+ B D- C+ A+ B- B+ 44% 17% 40% D B F+ A C+ C F F F
1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26 1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
14		 New Mexico D- D- C+ D C- 12% 24% 63% F+ D+ C- D D+ B- D+ F D B A F A+ A+ 35% 4% 61% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A F F F
0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16 1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43
Dec
20		 Central Florida B F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 48% C- A+ D- D+ D F+ F F F F B+ A F F 36% 12% 52% D- F F A D+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05 1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11
Jan
1		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 27% 16% 57% D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A- D- A+ C F D- B F F 37% 20% 43% B- F+ F F F F F F F
1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20 1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
3		 North Alabama D- C- B- A C+ 40% 21% 38% D C D- D- F+ F F B- F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% D- A+ A+ A A+ F+ F C+ F
1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13 0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31
Jan
8		 Austin Peay D C- A+ D+ B- 24% 31% 45% F C D+ B C F+ C D- C- F A- A+ F+ C 35% 10% 54% D C- D+ F F D+ F C+ F
1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20 1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31
Jan
10		 Lipscomb C- C A+ F+ B 35% 38% 27% F C+ D A- C B B F C F A- A+ F D- 39% 12% 49% C D- C F D- B+ F F F
1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20 1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31
Jan
15		 Queens F D- C+ F F 42% 25% 32% D+ F D A C A C A+ A+ D C- F A- B+ 40% 8% 53% F+ B- D+ C C- F+ F D+ F
1.04 52% 40% 16% -11 0 0.80 29% 1.3 .36 10% .34 100% .34 1.20 62% 50% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 11% .45 79% .35
Jan
17		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A 43% 30% 26% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D A+ B- A+ C- D B- C D+ 26% 25% 49% D+ D+ B A+ A F+ D A+ C
1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46 1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Jan
22		 Austin Peay F+ C C C- C- 37% 27% 37% D- D+ A F+ C F F F F F B- F C- F+ 28% 24% 48% A D D- D F+ F B+ C B+
0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08 1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19
Jan
23		 Lipscomb B- A+ F B- D 17% 28% 54% F D- C A+ A+ B+ A D- B+ F B- A+ F F 19% 15% 66% A F F F F C- F F F
1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24 1.36 56% 0% 55% +14 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
29		 North Alabama D- D A- C C- 27% 20% 53% F D+ D+ D- D- F F A+ D C F A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B B F F D+ F D F
1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19 0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Jacksonville D D+ F B F+ 48% 25% 27% D+ F+ F+ A+ C+ C+ A- F C+ A+ C F A+ A 34% 30% 36% A A B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+
1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26 0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16
Feb
5		 Eastern Kentucky D- A+ B- D C+ 21% 25% 54% F+ C D+ F F F F B F C+ F A B+ C 16% 22% 61% B- C+ C- F F B- F F F
1.06 91% 46% 32% +7 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35
Feb
7		 Bellarmine F D+ A- F F 19% 32% 49% F F F+ F F C- D- F+ F+ C- D F F F 35% 12% 53% B- F A+ A+ A+ D C- D D+
0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18 1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
11		 North Florida C- B- A A+ A 42% 32% 26% F B+ D+ D D- B- A+ F B+ D B+ F C- C- 29% 11% 61% C C- D- A C D- F A- F
1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25 1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27
Feb
14		 Stetson D+ C- D- B+ D+ 43% 21% 36% C D+ C- C+ C- D+ F D F D- A+ F F D+ 52% 15% 33% F D C F F D B+ F B-
1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12 1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18
Feb
18		 Jacksonville A- A A+ F A- 50% 26% 24% D+ B+ A D B- B A+ A- A+ F F F F F 44% 25% 31% C+ F A+ D- B+ F F A+ D
1.31 74% 58% 27% +11 0 1.24 40% 0.8 .33 12% .48 75% .36 1.28 81% 50% 40% +16 0 1.33 21% 1.2 .24 12% .45 54% .24
Feb
21		 Central Arkansas D C+ F+ F F 40% 17% 43% C F C- A+ B A+ F+ F F B A- A B+ A 34% 15% 51% C A C+ F F+ C- D+ F D-
1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11 0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23
Feb
26		 North Florida F F B- F F 37% 23% 40% D F D- A- C- A C+ B- B- C- C- C A+ A+ 37% 10% 54% D+ A D D D D F D+ F
1.01 38% 46% 17% -16 0 0.70 30% 1.4 .41 7% .30 74% .22 1.10 58% 40% 21% -10 +1 0.85 29% 1.2 .34 16% .45 81% .36
Feb
28		 Stetson F C- F F+ F+ 48% 19% 33% C+ F+ F F F B- C- C+ C D- B F F F 46% 17% 37% F+ F D+ F F A C+ B+ B-
0.93 60% 30% 29% -3 +1 0.98 17% 0.3 .06 13% .27 75% .20 1.15 52% 63% 53% +12 +1 1.28 28% 1.7 .48 24% .27 64% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 5.0 95.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 16.0 95.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.6%
Lose Out 64.4%