Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.0 252
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 279
Pace 69.5 156
Improvement -4.9 343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 219 C C C- D D
Defense D+ 271 D+ C- C- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 314 C+ 59% 136 +19.9 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 82 B- 41% 77 +11.0 43
Three Pointers 39% 217 C 34% 171 +20.2 206
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 320 C+ +1.4 125
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 172
Second Chance C 29.9% 198 C 1.03 165 C 0.31 185
Turnovers C- 17.7% 239
Freethrows D 0.27 306 C 72% 190 D 0.19 292
Total Offense C- -1.9 219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 210 C- 59% 209 +22.3 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 291 C 38% 192 +6.4 292
Three Pointers 46% 53 D+ 36% 268 +24.7 34
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 244 D+ +1.7 250
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.06 254
Second Chance C 30.9% 198 C- 1.05 218 C- 0.32 217
Turnovers C- 16.5% 203
Freethrows D 0.36 321 D 75% 324 D- 0.27 332
Total Defense D+ -3.1 271

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 160 17.0 139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 130 0.18 226
Improvement -6.4 #360 +1.5 #105

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 6% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 5% 6% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 51% 63% 17%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 4%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 412 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 7 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0% 0 - 1 F -19 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -14 F+ F+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 261 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 64% -3  22% 0 - 2 D -10 B+ +9 C+ A C+ F -18 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 293 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 70% +13  97% 1 - 2 B- +8 A +12 B A+ B D+ -4 C+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 187 @Samford W 77 - 62 27% +9  93% 2 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 B A F A+ +14 A B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 337 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 82% +0  52% 3 - 2 D -10 B +6 A- B+ D+ F -16 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 229 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 57% -4  10% 4 - 2 B +8 F -12 D F+ F A+ +18 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 169 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 44% -0  40% 4 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +2 B- C- B D -7 F A- A
 Wed, Dec 3 192 @Florida International L 83 - 89 28% -6  6% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 D+ C+ B- D -7 C+ D C
 Sun, Dec 7 115 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 31% +0  46% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C +2 B C+ F D -7 B B- C-
 Sun, Dec 14 48 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 5% -5  33% 4 - 6 C- -2 D- -8 D+ D+ B B +5 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 20 55 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 6% -5  30% 4 - 7 D -9 B +6 A+ D+ F+ F -15 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 188 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 27% +3  69% 4 - 8 0 - 1 C -1 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- F -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 344 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 67% +8  94% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 D- -7 C+ F F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 151 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 41% -3  22% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 D -4 C C+ D- F+ -10 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 195 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 50% -1  30% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 C+ C- B F+ -10 D- D B+
 Thu, Jan 15 209 Queens L 74 - 85 53% -6  14% 5 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -17 F -10 F C A D -7 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 319 West Georgia W 90 - 72 78% +3  69% 6 - 11 2 - 4 B- +5 B +7 B+ A+ D C- -2 D A F+
 Thu, Jan 22 151 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 21% -12  2% 6 - 12 2 - 5 F -18 F+ -9 D+ C+ F F+ -10 D F+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 195 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 28% -5  31% 6 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 B- +4 D- A+ A- F -20 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 344 North Alabama W 72 - 64 84% +8  87% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -7 F+ -8 D+ F+ F C+ +1 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 311 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 54% +3  54% 8 - 13 4 - 6 B+ +13 D -5 F+ C+ B- A+ +19 A A A+
 Thu, Feb 5 269 @Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 76 43% +6  71% 8 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -5 D- -6 C F F C+ +1 C+ D- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 292 @Bellarmine L 65 - 81 48% -6  14% 8 - 15 4 - 8 F -20 F -17 F F C- D+ -4 F A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 341 North Florida W 90 - 81 83% +7  86% 9 - 15 5 - 8 D+ -6 C- -2 B D- C+ D+ -5 C C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 327 Stetson W 78 - 76 79% +0  43% 10 - 15 6 - 8 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ C- D+ D- -9 D- F D
 Thu, Feb 19 311 Jacksonville W 73 - 66 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 Central Arkansas L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Feb 26 341 @North Florida W 86 - 82 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 327 @Stetson W 77 - 74 59%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5 F -2 B- C+ D D+ -3 C C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ B- C C+ 34% 46% 39% D C C C C C- D C D D+ C- C D+ D+ 38% 17% 46% D+ D+ C C- C- C- D D D-
1.06 59% 41% 34% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .31 18% .27 72% .19 1.13 59% 38% 36% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .32 16% .36 75% .20
Nov
7		 Illinois C- C D D+ C- 20% 45% 35% F D+ C F D- A+ C A+ B F F C- D+ F 38% 13% 49% C- F+ B- F F+ F+ F F F
0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15 1.51 86% 43% 37% +13 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44
Nov
11		 Georgia Southern B+ C- A B B- 39% 20% 41% D C+ A+ D A C+ F F F F F F F F 34% 6% 60% D+ F A D B C- B+ B+ A-
1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08 1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19
Nov
15		 Chattanooga A A A+ D+ A- 34% 28% 38% D- B B+ A A+ B F A+ D- D+ B B+ B- B 42% 6% 52% F C+ C- A+ B+ D+ F B+ F
1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21 1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35
Nov
19		 Samford C+ D- A+ B- A- 38% 40% 23% D B A+ C- A F C F D+ A+ A+ F A+ A 36% 22% 42% C A F A+ B- C+ D A+ B-
1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19 0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22
Nov
24		 Oral Roberts B A+ A D A+ 36% 30% 34% F A- A- C B+ D+ A+ C- A+ F F+ D+ F F 46% 10% 44% F+ F D F+ F+ A+ F D+ F
1.26 82% 50% 31% +11 -1 1.21 41% 1.2 .48 16% .55 71% .39 1.19 64% 40% 48% +12 +2 1.29 31% 1.1 .35 24% .45 76% .34
Nov
25		 Rice F F+ F A+ D 34% 30% 36% C D D F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ D C A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% F A A+ F A- A+ D+ B C-
0.98 53% 20% 44% -1 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38 0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21
Nov
26		 Kennesaw St. C+ D+ C A B- 42% 20% 38% C- B- D+ C C- B A+ D+ A D F+ F C F 49% 7% 44% F+ F C- A+ A- A F F F
1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37 1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +2 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43
Dec
3		 Florida International C+ C+ F+ F D 49% 11% 40% B+ D+ B+ D C+ B- B- A+ A D C+ A- C- C+ 40% 14% 46% D+ C+ B+ F D C F F F
1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29 1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48
Dec
7		 Florida Atlantic C B A+ D- B 47% 14% 39% B- B C+ C C+ F C- A+ B D C A+ B- B+ 44% 17% 40% D+ B D- A+ B- C- F F F
1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26 1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
14		 New Mexico D- D- C+ D C- 12% 24% 63% D- D+ D+ D D+ B D+ F D- B A F A+ A+ 35% 4% 61% D+ A+ F A+ C- A- F F F
0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16 1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43
Dec
20		 Central Florida B F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 48% C- A+ D C- D+ F+ F F F F B+ A F F 36% 12% 52% D- F F A C- C- A A+ A+
1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05 1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11
Jan
1		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 27% 16% 57% D+ A+ F A+ C+ A- D- A+ C F D- B F F 37% 20% 43% B- F+ F F F F F F F
1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20 1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
3		 North Alabama D- C- B A- C+ 40% 21% 38% D+ C+ F+ F+ F F F B- F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A+ A+ A A+ D- F C+ F
1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13 0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31
Jan
8		 Austin Peay D C- A+ D+ B- 24% 31% 45% F C D+ B+ C+ D- B- D C F+ A- A+ F+ C 35% 10% 54% D- C- D+ F F D+ F C+ F
1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20 1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31
Jan
10		 Lipscomb C- C+ A+ F+ B 35% 38% 27% F C+ D B C- B B- F C- F+ B+ A+ F F+ 39% 12% 49% C D- C F D B+ F F F
1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20 1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31
Jan
15		 Queens F D- C+ F F 42% 25% 32% D F D A C A C A+ A+ D C- F A- B 40% 8% 53% D- B- C- C C F F D F
1.04 52% 40% 16% -11 0 0.80 29% 1.3 .36 10% .34 100% .34 1.20 62% 50% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 11% .45 79% .35
Jan
17		 West Georgia B A+ F A+ A 43% 30% 26% F B+ C A+ A+ D A+ B- A+ C- D C+ C+ D 26% 25% 49% D D B+ A+ A F+ D A+ C+
1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46 1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Jan
22		 Austin Peay F+ C C C- C- 37% 27% 37% D D+ A D C+ F F F F F+ C+ F C- D- 28% 24% 48% A- D D- D F+ F B C B
0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08 1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19
Jan
23		 Lipscomb B- A+ F B- D 17% 28% 54% F D- C A+ A+ A- A F+ B F C+ A+ F F 19% 15% 66% A+ F F F F C- F+ F F
1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24 1.36 56% 0% 55% +15 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
29		 North Alabama F+ D A C C- 27% 20% 53% F+ D+ D F+ F+ F F+ A+ D+ C+ F A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B+ B- F F D+ F D F
1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19 0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Jacksonville D D+ F B F+ 48% 25% 27% C- F+ F+ A+ C+ B- A- F C+ A+ C F A+ A 34% 30% 36% A- A B- A+ A A+ D+ A+ B
1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26 0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16
Feb
5		 Eastern Kentucky D- A+ B- D+ C+ 21% 25% 54% F+ C D+ F F F F B- F+ C+ F A B C 16% 22% 61% B- C+ C- F D- C+ F F F
1.06 91% 46% 32% +8 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35
Feb
7		 Bellarmine F D+ A- F F 19% 32% 49% F F F+ F F C- D F+ D- D+ D F F F 35% 12% 53% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D- C- D- D+
0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18 1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
11		 North Florida C- B- A A+ A- 42% 32% 26% F B D+ D- D- C+ A+ F B+ D+ B+ F C- C 29% 11% 61% C C D- A C D- F A F
1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25 1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27
Feb
14		 Stetson D+ C- D- B+ D+ 43% 21% 36% C D+ C- C C- D+ F D+ F D- A+ F F D 52% 15% 33% F D- C F F D B+ F B-
1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12 1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 13.1 31.3 13.5 58.0 5th
6th 2.3 15.6 4.6 22.5 6th
7th 0.0 5.1 3.9 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 4.5 0.3 4.9 8th
9th 0.6 1.4 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 1.3 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.2 13.6 32.9 36.0 15.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 15.3% 7.6% 7.6% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 14.2
9-9 36.0% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 2.3 33.7
8-10 32.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 1.7 31.2
7-11 13.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 13.2
6-12 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.9 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 15.3 0.9 64.7 34.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 0.9%