Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.9 252
Results Rating -6.0 259
Consistency 0.14 114
Pace 69.4 151
Improvement -3.7 318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 206 C C C D D
Defense D+ 280 D+ C- C- D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 306 C+ 60% 126 -1.9 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 80 B- 42% 65 +3.2 44
Three Pointers 39% 224 C 33% 206 -1.4 229
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 316 C+ +1.2 125
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance C 30.1% 187 C 1.05 148 C 0.32 164
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.8% 224
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 189
Turnovers C 17.2% 205
Freethrows D 0.26 309 C 72% 189 D 0.19 297
Total Offense C- -1.4 206

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 210 D 13.4% 318
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 103 B 3.3% 64
Three Pointers B- 88% 90 C+ 0.8% 149
Total C 55% 196 C 5.8% 209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 205 C- 59% 221 +0.1 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 287 C 39% 213 -1.3 91
Three Pointers 45% 63 D+ 36% 262 +3.3 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 240 D+ +1.8 252
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 255
Second Chance C 30.5% 187 C- 1.07 253 C- 0.33 228
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.4% 111
Other Turnovers D- 5.8% 351
Turnovers C- 16.2% 219
Freethrows D 0.36 319 D 75% 303 D- 0.27 331
Total Defense D+ -3.5 280

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 86 B- 13.1% 88
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 333 C+ 5.5% 126
Three Pointers C+ 83% 145 D+ 0.5% 259
Total C- 57% 206 C+ 6.1% 138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 153 17.0 135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 105 0.18 231
Consistency 0.11 112 0.16 355
Improvement -4.9 354 +1.2 118

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 271 251 225
Results Rating Rank 301 256 234
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 5 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 9% 12% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 86% 100% 58%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 3% 5%
First Round5% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 5 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0% 0 - 1 F+ -17 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -13 F+ F+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 267 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 66% -3  22% 0 - 2 D -10 B+ +9 C+ A C+ F -19 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 275 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 67% +13  97% 1 - 2 B +9 A- +11 B A+ B C- -2 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 191 @Samford W 77 - 62 28% +9  93% 2 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 B A+ F A+ +15 A B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 333 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 82% +0  52% 3 - 2 D -10 B +7 A- A- D+ F -16 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 233 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 58% -4  10% 4 - 2 B- +8 F -12 D F+ F A+ +19 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 165 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 44% -0  40% 4 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 C+ C- B D- -8 F B+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 183 @Florida International L 83 - 89 27% -6  6% 4 - 4 C- -5 C+ +3 D+ C+ B D- -7 C D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 118 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 32% +0  46% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C+ +2 B+ C+ F D- -7 B C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 52 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 5% -5  33% 4 - 6 C- -2 D- -7 D+ D+ B B +5 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 44 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 5% -5  30% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B +7 A+ D F+ F -14 F D D+
 Thu, Jan 1 181 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 27% +3  69% 4 - 8 0 - 1 C -0 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- F -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 67% +8  94% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 D- -7 C F+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 155 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 43% -3  22% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 D+ -4 C+ C+ F+ F -11 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 187 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 49% -1  30% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 C- -2 B- C- B F -10 D D- B
 Thu, Jan 15 211 Queens L 74 - 85 54% -6  14% 5 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -17 F -10 F C A D -6 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 317 West Georgia W 90 - 72 77% +3  69% 6 - 11 2 - 4 B- +5 B+ +8 B+ A+ D C- -2 D A F+
 Thu, Jan 22 155 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 23% -12  2% 6 - 12 2 - 5 F -18 D- -8 C- C+ F F -11 D F+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 187 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 27% -5  31% 6 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 B- +5 D A+ B+ F -20 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 342 North Alabama W 72 - 64 84% +8  87% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -7 D- -8 D+ D F C+ +1 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 307 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 53% +3  54% 8 - 13 4 - 6 B+ +13 D -5 F+ C+ B- A+ +20 A A A+
 Thu, Feb 5 279 @Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 76 45% +6  71% 8 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -6 D- -7 C F F C+ +1 C+ F+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 287 @Bellarmine L 65 - 81 48% -6  14% 8 - 15 4 - 8 F -20 F -18 F F D+ D+ -4 F A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 339 North Florida W 90 - 81 83% +7  86% 9 - 15 5 - 8 D+ -6 C- -1 B D- B- D -5 C C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 325 Stetson W 78 - 76 80% +0  43% 10 - 15 6 - 8 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ C- D+ F+ -9 D- F D
 Wed, Feb 18 307 Jacksonville W 86 - 84 74% +4  84% 11 - 15 7 - 8 D -10 A- +11 B+ B- B+ F -21 F B F
 Sat, Feb 21 181 Central Arkansas W 75 - 71 OT 48% -1  39% 12 - 15 8 - 8 C -0 D -4 F B A+ B +4 A F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 339 @North Florida W 86 - 82 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 @Stetson W 78 - 75 60%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -5 C- -1 A+ C+ D D+ -3 C C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ B- C C+ 34% 47% 39% D C C C C C D C D D+ C- C D+ D+ 38% 17% 45% C- D+ C C- C- C- D D D-
1.07 60% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .32 17% .26 72% .19 1.14 59% 39% 36% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 16% .36 75% .20
Nov
7		 Illinois C- C D- D C- 20% 45% 35% F D+ C F D- A+ C A+ B F F C- D+ F 38% 13% 49% C F+ B- F F+ D- F F F
0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15 1.51 86% 43% 37% +13 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44
Nov
11		 Georgia Southern B+ C- A B B- 39% 20% 41% D C+ A+ D+ A C+ F F F F F F F F 34% 6% 60% D+ F A- D B C- B A- B+
1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08 1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19
Nov
15		 Chattanooga A- A A+ D+ B+ 34% 28% 38% D- B B+ A A+ B F A+ D- C- B B+ B- B+ 42% 6% 52% F B- C A+ B+ D+ F B+ F
1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21 1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35
Nov
19		 Samford C+ D- A+ B- B+ 38% 40% 23% D B A+ C- A+ F C F D+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A F A+ B- C+ D A+ B-
1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19 0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22
Nov
24		 Oral Roberts B A+ A D A+ 36% 30% 34% F A- A- C+ A- D+ A+ C A+ F F+ C- F F 46% 10% 44% F+ F D- F F+ A+ F D+ F
1.26 82% 50% 31% +11 -1 1.21 41% 1.2 .48 16% .55 71% .39 1.19 64% 40% 48% +12 +2 1.29 31% 1.1 .35 24% .45 76% .34
Nov
25		 Rice F D- F A+ D- 34% 30% 36% C- D D F F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ D C A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% F A A+ F A- A+ D+ B+ C
0.98 53% 20% 44% -2 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38 0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21
Nov
26		 Kennesaw St. C+ D+ C A B- 42% 20% 38% C- C+ D+ C+ C- B A+ D+ A D- F+ F C F 49% 7% 44% F+ F C- A+ B+ A F F F
1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37 1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +3 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43
Dec
3		 Florida International C+ C+ F+ F D 49% 11% 40% B+ D+ B+ D+ C+ B B- A+ A D- C+ A- C- C+ 40% 14% 46% D+ C B+ F D- C F F F
1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29 1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48
Dec
7		 Florida Atlantic C+ B+ A+ D- B+ 47% 14% 39% B- B+ C+ C+ C+ F C- A+ B D- C+ A+ B- B+ 44% 17% 40% D B F A+ C+ C F F F
1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26 1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
14		 New Mexico D- D- C+ D C- 12% 24% 63% D- D+ C- D+ D+ B D+ F D B A F A+ A+ 35% 4% 61% D+ A+ F A+ D+ A- F F F
0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16 1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43
Dec
20		 Central Florida B F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 48% C- A+ D C- D F+ F F F F A- A F F 36% 12% 52% D- F F A D D+ A A+ A+
1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05 1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11
Jan
1		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 27% 16% 57% D+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A- D- A+ C+ F D- B F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F+ F F F F F F F
1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20 1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
3		 North Alabama D- C- B- A- C+ 40% 21% 38% D C D- D- F+ F F B F A+ A A+ A A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A+ A+ A A+ D- F C F
1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13 0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31
Jan
8		 Austin Peay D+ C- A+ D+ B 24% 31% 45% F C+ D+ B+ C+ F+ C+ D C- F A- A+ F+ C- 35% 10% 54% D C- D+ F F D+ F C+ F
1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20 1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31
Jan
10		 Lipscomb C- C+ A+ F+ B 35% 38% 27% F B- D B+ C- B B- F C F A- A+ F D- 39% 12% 49% C D C- F D- B F F F
1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20 1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31
Jan
15		 Queens F D- C+ F F 42% 25% 32% D F D A C A C A+ A+ D C- F A- B 40% 8% 53% D- B- C- C+ C F F D F
1.04 52% 40% 16% -11 0 0.80 29% 1.3 .36 10% .34 100% .34 1.20 62% 50% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 11% .45 79% .35
Jan
17		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A 43% 30% 26% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D A+ B- A+ C- D B- C D 26% 25% 49% D D B A+ A F+ D A+ C+
1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46 1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Jan
22		 Austin Peay D- C C C C- 37% 27% 37% D C- A- D C+ F F F F F C+ F C- F+ 28% 24% 48% A- D D- D F+ F B+ C B
0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08 1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19
Jan
23		 Lipscomb B- A+ F B- D+ 17% 28% 54% F+ D C A+ A+ B+ A F+ B+ F B- A+ F F 19% 15% 66% A F F F F C- F+ F F
1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24 1.36 56% 0% 55% +14 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
29		 North Alabama D- D A- C C- 27% 20% 53% F+ D+ D+ D- D F F A+ D+ C+ F A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B+ B- F F D+ F D F
1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19 0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Jacksonville D D+ F B F+ 48% 25% 27% C- F+ F+ A+ C+ B- A- F C+ A+ C F A+ A 34% 30% 36% A A B- A+ A A+ C- A+ B+
1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26 0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16
Feb
5		 Eastern Kentucky D- A+ B- D C+ 21% 25% 54% F+ C D+ F F F F B F C+ F A B+ C 16% 22% 61% B- C+ C- F F+ B- F F F
1.06 91% 46% 32% +7 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35
Feb
7		 Bellarmine F D+ A- F F 19% 32% 49% F F D- F F D+ D- F+ F+ D+ D F F F 35% 12% 53% B- F A+ A+ A+ D C- D- D
0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18 1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
11		 North Florida C- B- A A+ A- 42% 32% 26% F B D+ D D- B- A+ F B+ D B+ F C- C 29% 11% 61% C C D- A C D- F A F
1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25 1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27
Feb
14		 Stetson D+ C- F+ B+ D+ 43% 21% 36% C D+ D+ C+ C- D+ F D+ F F+ A+ F F D+ 52% 15% 33% F D- C F F D B+ F B-
1.15 60% 33% 38% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.2 .36 16% .18 70% .12 1.12 41% 63% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.5 .39 16% .23 77% .18
Feb
18		 Jacksonville A- A A+ F A- 50% 26% 24% C- B+ A D B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F F F F F 44% 25% 31% C+ F A D- B F F A+ D-
1.31 74% 58% 27% +11 0 1.24 40% 0.8 .33 12% .48 75% .36 1.28 81% 50% 40% +16 0 1.33 21% 1.2 .24 12% .45 54% .24
Feb
21		 Central Arkansas D C+ F+ F F 40% 17% 43% C F C- A+ B A+ F+ F F B A- A B+ A 34% 15% 51% C A B- F F+ C- D+ F D-
1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11 0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 11.2 45.8 39.8 96.8 5th
6th 3.2 3.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 14.4 45.8 39.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 39.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 1.3 1.5 36.9
9-9 45.8% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6 43.1
8-10 14.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.9 13.6
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 15.8 93.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 15.5 46.3 53.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.5%
Lose Out 8.1%