Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#186
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#240
Pace70.8#142
Improvement-0.1#189

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#136
First Shot+0.6#162
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#152
Layup/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows-2.2#310
Improvement-1.5#288

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#271
First Shot-3.7#307
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#116
Layups/Dunks+0.5#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#273
Freethrows-3.4#347
Improvement+1.3#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 19.3% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 72.4% 82.7% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 94.7% 82.2%
Conference Champion 21.5% 28.9% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four1.8% 1.4% 2.4%
First Round15.9% 18.7% 12.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 414 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 10 @Illinois L 70-113 2%     0 - 1 -20.0 +1.4 -18.6
  Tue, Nov 11 213 Georgia Southern L 94-95 67%     0 - 2 -7.4 +12.2 -19.5
  Sat, Nov 15 235 Chattanooga W 91-73 71%     1 - 2 +10.6 +14.1 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 19 227 @Samford W 77-62 47%     2 - 2 +14.0 +4.1 +10.1
  Mon, Nov 24 303 Oral Roberts W 93-88 81%     3 - 2 -6.0 +9.3 -15.6
  Tue, Nov 25 231 Rice W 78-63 OT 70%     4 - 2 +7.6 -8.0 +13.8
  Wed, Nov 26 152 Kennesaw St. L 100-102 OT 53%     4 - 3 -4.5 +6.1 -10.3
  Wed, Dec 3 182 @Florida International L 83-89 38%     4 - 4 -4.6 +4.7 -8.8
  Sun, Dec 7 114 Florida Atlantic L 76-81 41%     4 - 5 -4.6 +2.5 -7.1
  Sun, Dec 14 66 @New Mexico L 59-75 12%     4 - 6 -4.8 -6.3 +1.1
  Sat, Dec 20 49 @Central Florida L 80-102 8%     4 - 7 -8.6 +9.3 -17.3
  Thu, Jan 1 282 @Central Arkansas W 77-75 56%    
  Sat, Jan 3 244 @North Alabama W 75-74 50%    
  Thu, Jan 8 195 Austin Peay W 75-72 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 144 Lipscomb W 79-78 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 211 Queens W 85-81 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 316 West Georgia W 82-72 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 195 @Austin Peay L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 144 @Lipscomb L 75-81 30%    
  Thu, Jan 29 244 North Alabama W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 317 @Jacksonville W 75-71 66%    
  Thu, Feb 5 259 @Eastern Kentucky W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 267 @Bellarmine W 79-78 54%    
  Wed, Feb 11 350 North Florida W 92-78 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 349 Stetson W 83-69 89%    
  Thu, Feb 19 317 Jacksonville W 78-68 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 282 Central Arkansas W 80-72 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 350 @North Florida W 89-81 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 349 @Stetson W 80-72 76%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.0 6.2 3.8 1.3 0.2 21.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.0 7.5 4.8 1.4 0.2 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.7 7.0 3.5 0.6 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.6 2.3 0.2 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.2 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.8 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.3 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.4 8.4 11.5 14.6 15.4 14.7 11.5 7.6 4.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 96.1% 3.8    3.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 80.6% 6.2    4.4 1.7 0.1
14-4 52.6% 6.0    2.9 2.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.2% 3.3    0.8 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.5% 21.5 13.1 6.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 44.4% 44.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 44.9% 44.9% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7
16-2 4.0% 37.1% 37.1% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.5
15-3 7.6% 31.1% 31.1% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 5.3
14-4 11.5% 25.8% 25.8% 14.8 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.4 8.5
13-5 14.7% 20.6% 20.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.7 11.7
12-6 15.4% 15.9% 15.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 13.0
11-7 14.6% 12.6% 12.6% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.2 12.7
10-8 11.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 10.4
9-9 8.4% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5 7.9
8-10 5.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 5.2
7-11 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 7.0 5.1 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 12.5 50.0 37.5