SMU
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#87
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#145
Pace71.6#107
Improvement+3.2#21

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#47
First Shot+6.2#26
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks+3.9#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#69
Freethrows+1.4#96
Improvement+3.2#11

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#148
First Shot+4.1#56
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#329
Layups/Dunks+2.3#100
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#261
Freethrows+1.7#93
Improvement+0.1#176
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 3.7% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.4
.500 or above 85.9% 91.3% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.0% 65.6% 55.5%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.7% 3.2%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
First Round5.0% 6.1% 3.2%
Second Round1.7% 2.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 34 - 9
Quad 36 - 410 - 13
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 328   McNeese St. W 86-62 96%     1 - 0 +10.3 -4.3 +11.2
  Nov 12, 2021 53   @ Oregon L 63-86 29%     1 - 1 -11.2 -6.0 -5.0
  Nov 15, 2021 340   Northwestern St. W 95-48 97%     2 - 1 +30.8 +12.7 +18.2
  Nov 18, 2021 315   SE Louisiana W 78-61 94%     3 - 1 +4.9 -5.1 +9.2
  Nov 21, 2021 158   Missouri L 75-80 OT 70%     3 - 2 -4.3 -3.8 +0.1
  Nov 22, 2021 137   Loyola Marymount L 70-76 65%     3 - 3 -4.0 +5.1 -10.0
  Nov 24, 2021 224   Sam Houston St. W 75-66 86%     4 - 3 +3.5 +0.8 +2.8
  Nov 28, 2021 259   Louisiana Monroe W 74-67 90%     5 - 3 -1.1 -2.9 +1.8
  Dec 01, 2021 168   UNLV W 83-64 80%     6 - 3 +16.1 +10.8 +5.7
  Dec 04, 2021 86   Vanderbilt W 84-72 61%     7 - 3 +15.0 +17.4 -1.7
  Dec 08, 2021 98   Dayton W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 19, 2021 200   @ New Mexico W 84-80 67%    
  Dec 21, 2021 237   Evansville W 73-60 89%    
  Dec 29, 2021 138   @ Tulsa W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 02, 2022 63   Central Florida W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 06, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 12, 2022 247   South Florida W 70-57 89%    
  Jan 15, 2022 160   @ Tulane W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 20, 2022 34   @ Memphis L 72-81 21%    
  Jan 23, 2022 54   Wichita St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 26, 2022 247   @ South Florida W 67-60 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 140   Temple W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 09, 2022 4   Houston L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 172   @ East Carolina W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 16, 2022 140   @ Temple W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 20, 2022 34   Memphis L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 23, 2022 138   Tulsa W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 27, 2022 4   @ Houston L 62-78 8%    
  Mar 03, 2022 55   Cincinnati W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 06, 2022 160   Tulane W 76-68 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.4 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.5 5.7 1.8 0.2 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.5 1.7 0.2 16.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.9 5.8 1.6 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.9 4.8 1.3 0.1 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.6 0.9 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 10.8 13.3 15.0 14.9 12.5 9.3 5.7 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 85.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 49.1% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 20.0% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 90.6% 34.4% 56.3% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
16-2 0.4% 85.2% 18.7% 66.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 81.8%
15-3 1.3% 63.4% 14.0% 49.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 57.4%
14-4 2.8% 38.3% 10.5% 27.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.8 31.1%
13-5 5.7% 18.4% 7.9% 10.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.6 11.5%
12-6 9.3% 9.3% 6.2% 3.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.4 3.3%
11-7 12.5% 4.5% 3.8% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.9 0.7%
10-8 14.9% 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.3%
9-9 15.0% 1.8% 1.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.7
8-10 13.3% 1.2% 1.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.1
7-11 10.8% 0.7% 0.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7
6-12 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 4.0
4-14 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 3.0% 2.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 94.3 2.8%