SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#41
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#27
Pace72.8#90
Improvement-1.7#296

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#37
First Shot+5.3#54
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#53
Layup/Dunks+4.0#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#295
Freethrows+1.7#92
Improvement-0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+3.9#62
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#144
Layups/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#147
Freethrows+1.5#92
Improvement-1.7#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 14.2% 14.4% 5.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.5% 65.9% 45.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.5% 64.9% 44.2%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 98.1% 98.3% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 71.6% 56.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 1.8%
First Four8.7% 8.7% 7.8%
First Round61.0% 61.4% 41.1%
Second Round32.4% 32.7% 18.4%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 9.1% 4.3%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 27 - 311 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 191 Tarleton St. W 96-76 94%     1 - 0 +14.9 +17.4 -3.3
  Thu, Nov 6 220 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-58 95%     2 - 0 +4.4 -3.0 +7.5
  Tue, Nov 11 96 Murray St. W 102-91 82%     3 - 0 +13.3 +13.4 -1.7
  Sat, Nov 15 58 Butler W 87-85 70%     4 - 0 +8.6 +10.3 -1.8
  Tue, Nov 18 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106-60 99%     5 - 0 +30.3 +12.9 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 21 138 Arkansas St. W 100-69 90%     6 - 0 +29.3 +13.2 +12.2
  Mon, Nov 24 255 Radford W 89-72 96%     7 - 0 +8.6 +2.1 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 28 85 @Mississippi St. W 87-81 OT 59%     8 - 0 +15.6 +7.5 +7.4
  Wed, Dec 3 10 @Vanderbilt L 69-88 19%     8 - 1 +2.2 +7.7 -6.1
  Sun, Dec 7 45 Texas A&M W 93-80 OT 54%     9 - 1 +24.2 +8.5 +13.4
  Sat, Dec 13 35 LSU L 77-89 47%     9 - 2 +0.8 +16.5 -16.7
  Sun, Dec 21 283 Central Arkansas W 88-66 98%    
  Sun, Dec 28 267 Cal St. Fullerton W 95-74 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 22 North Carolina L 77-78 49%    
  Wed, Jan 7 37 @Clemson L 72-75 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 2 @Duke L 70-84 10%    
  Wed, Jan 14 64 Virginia Tech W 82-76 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 25 Virginia W 79-78 51%    
  Tue, Jan 20 52 @Wake Forest L 79-80 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 119 Florida St. W 90-78 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 14 @Louisville L 79-87 22%    
  Tue, Feb 3 29 North Carolina St. W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 102 @Pittsburgh W 77-73 66%    
  Tue, Feb 10 56 Notre Dame W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Feb 14 72 @Syracuse W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Feb 17 14 Louisville L 82-84 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 151 Boston College W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Feb 25 80 @California W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 89 @Stanford W 81-78 61%    
  Wed, Mar 4 34 Miami (FL) W 80-78 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 119 @Florida St. W 87-81 71%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 4.5 2.0 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.8 5.0 1.1 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 5.4 2.5 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 5.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.8 0.2 0.0 7.6 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.3 0.0 5.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.0 8.2 11.1 14.1 14.8 14.6 11.8 8.2 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 76.5% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
15-3 43.2% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 14.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.6% 99.6% 11.2% 88.5% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 8.2% 99.4% 6.6% 92.8% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 11.8% 97.5% 4.2% 93.3% 7.5 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 97.3%
11-7 14.6% 91.6% 2.9% 88.7% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 4.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 1.2 91.4%
10-8 14.8% 80.3% 1.6% 78.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 4.1 1.6 0.0 2.9 80.0%
9-9 14.1% 60.7% 0.6% 60.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 2.9 0.0 5.6 60.5%
8-10 11.1% 30.7% 0.5% 30.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 0.1 7.7 30.4%
7-11 8.2% 9.3% 0.4% 8.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 7.4 8.9%
6-12 5.0% 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 4.9 1.4%
5-13 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.8 0.1%
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.5% 2.8% 62.7% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.7 9.0 10.8 11.9 11.7 7.7 0.2 34.5 64.5%