Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#313
Expected Predictive Rating-6.1#257
Pace65.5#287
Improvement-3.5#350

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#311
First Shot-3.4#274
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#280
Layup/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows-3.2#334
Improvement+0.3#147

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#297
First Shot-4.1#316
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#163
Layups/Dunks-2.6#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
Freethrows-1.2#266
Improvement-3.8#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 6.7% 18.7% 5.7%
.500 or above in Conference 29.3% 41.3% 28.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.1% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 8.3% 14.9%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
First Round1.0% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 8.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 410 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 36 @Miami (FL) L 69-86 2%     0 - 1 -0.8 +1.1 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 11 108 @High Point L 64-85 8%     0 - 2 -14.0 -7.9 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 15 331 @VMI W 69-67 45%     1 - 2 -5.4 -5.0 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 76 @George Mason L 57-79 5%     1 - 3 -11.6 -6.2 -7.0
  Mon, Nov 24 266 Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 38%     2 - 3 -0.6 -0.9 +0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 137 Pacific L 53-68 17%     2 - 4 -13.6 -10.3 -5.5
  Tue, Dec 2 343 Florida A&M W 85-82 OT 71%     3 - 4 -11.5 +2.2 -13.9
  Sat, Dec 6 181 @Florida International L 65-88 17%     3 - 5 -21.5 -5.5 -16.5
  Sun, Dec 14 44 @Texas A&M L 75-112 3%     3 - 6 -22.8 +1.9 -21.6
  Wed, Dec 17 343 @Florida A&M L 65-72 49%     3 - 7 -15.5 -5.4 -10.6
  Mon, Dec 22 120 @Florida St. L 69-84 8%    
  Thu, Jan 1 143 @Lipscomb L 66-79 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 194 @Austin Peay L 64-74 19%    
  Thu, Jan 8 209 Queens L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 316 West Georgia W 72-69 61%    
  Thu, Jan 15 288 @Central Arkansas L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 246 @North Alabama L 66-73 26%    
  Thu, Jan 22 276 Bellarmine W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 238 Eastern Kentucky L 71-72 46%    
  Thu, Jan 29 143 Lipscomb L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 188 Florida Gulf Coast L 71-75 36%    
  Thu, Feb 5 209 @Queens L 72-81 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 316 @West Georgia L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 345 @Stetson L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 350 North Florida W 82-75 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 188 @Florida Gulf Coast L 68-78 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 194 Austin Peay L 67-71 37%    
  Thu, Feb 26 345 Stetson W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 350 @North Florida W 79-78 52%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.9 1.8 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 6.1 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.1 4.9 1.1 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 5.3 4.9 1.2 0.0 13.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 11.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.0 8.5 11.4 14.4 14.6 13.8 11.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 84.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 54.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 22.0% 22.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 13.6% 13.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
12-6 3.0% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.8
11-7 5.0% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.7
10-8 8.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
9-9 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.8
8-10 13.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.7
7-11 14.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.5
6-12 14.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.4
5-13 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-14 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
3-15 5.0% 5.0
2-16 2.2% 2.2
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%