Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#259
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#215
Pace62.4#330
Improvement-0.1#180

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#307
First Shot-6.7#333
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#78
Layup/Dunks-0.9#197
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#281
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement-0.5#237

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#183
First Shot-1.7#238
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#91
Layups/Dunks-7.8#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#48
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows+2.4#48
Improvement+0.4#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 32.6% 38.9% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 46.0% 50.1% 35.3%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.8% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 6.3% 12.6%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 1.8%
First Round3.8% 4.5% 1.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 49 - 611 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 279   N.C. A&T W 63-54 65%     1 - 0 -0.4 -11.0 +10.7
  Nov 16, 2021 65   @ Central Florida L 54-63 8%     1 - 1 +1.4 -6.1 +6.3
  Nov 24, 2021 86   @ Minnesota L 44-55 9%     1 - 2 -1.8 -17.3 +14.4
  Dec 02, 2021 348   @ Charleston Southern W 73-67 72%    
  Dec 07, 2021 159   @ Georgia L 62-71 21%    
  Dec 11, 2021 282   UNC Wilmington W 64-60 66%    
  Dec 14, 2021 246   @ Southern Miss L 60-64 36%    
  Dec 21, 2021 214   @ Pittsburgh L 60-66 28%    
  Jan 02, 2022 182   @ Campbell L 55-62 25%    
  Jan 05, 2022 277   @ Kennesaw St. L 62-64 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 191   Florida Gulf Coast L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 11, 2022 270   Stetson W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 15, 2022 287   @ North Florida L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 18, 2022 174   @ Liberty L 55-63 24%    
  Jan 22, 2022 177   @ Bellarmine L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 27, 2022 220   Lipscomb W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 29, 2022 340   Central Arkansas W 73-62 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 307   @ North Alabama L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 05, 2022 147   @ Jacksonville St. L 58-68 20%    
  Feb 09, 2022 161   Eastern Kentucky L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 174   Liberty L 58-60 43%    
  Feb 16, 2022 270   @ Stetson L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 277   Kennesaw St. W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 287   North Florida W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 26, 2022 191   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.4 3.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 7.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.5 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.7 2.3 0.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.4 3.7 0.2 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.1 1.2 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.2 1.4 0.1 10.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 3.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.9 11th
12th 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.8 12th
Total 0.3 0.7 2.5 5.5 7.9 10.8 12.8 13.6 13.3 11.0 8.8 6.4 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
14-2 95.6% 0.7    0.5 0.1
13-3 68.4% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.1
12-4 34.6% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1
11-5 7.1% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.3% 28.0% 28.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 0.7% 33.8% 33.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-3 2.1% 25.8% 25.8% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.6
12-4 3.5% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.9
11-5 6.4% 12.8% 12.8% 15.8 0.2 0.6 5.5
10-6 8.8% 9.7% 9.7% 15.8 0.1 0.7 7.9
9-7 11.0% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.1 0.5 10.4
8-8 13.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.8
7-9 13.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 13.2
6-10 12.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 12.7
5-11 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
4-12 7.9% 7.9
3-13 5.5% 5.5
2-14 2.5% 2.5
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.2 95.3 0.0%