Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#212
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#172
Pace68.9#184
Improvement-1.4#265

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#231
First Shot-4.0#289
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks-1.1#216
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#111
Freethrows-4.4#354
Improvement+0.2#168

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#173
First Shot-1.8#230
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#72
Layups/Dunks-6.3#348
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#88
Freethrows+1.1#119
Improvement-1.5#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 12.4% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 55.8% 77.7% 52.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.2% 84.7% 76.0%
Conference Champion 10.0% 14.5% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four0.7% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round8.6% 12.3% 8.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 412 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 10   @ Florida L 60-81 3%     0 - 1 -0.5 -2.9 +1.4
  Nov 11, 2024 119   @ Furman L 69-78 22%     0 - 2 -3.3 -3.5 +0.6
  Nov 14, 2024 303   South Carolina St. W 71-62 78%     1 - 2 -1.4 -7.3 +5.7
  Nov 20, 2024 129   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 25%     2 - 2 +14.7 +5.4 +9.4
  Nov 25, 2024 232   Mercer L 89-90 OT 55%     2 - 3 -4.8 +3.0 -7.7
  Nov 26, 2024 302   Siena W 75-64 68%     3 - 3 +3.7 +0.6 +3.2
  Nov 30, 2024 38   @ Georgia L 56-102 6%     3 - 4 -31.1 -8.8 -22.3
  Dec 10, 2024 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-83 14%    
  Dec 14, 2024 135   East Tennessee St. L 70-71 46%    
  Dec 21, 2024 83   @ Central Florida L 66-78 13%    
  Jan 02, 2025 105   Lipscomb L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 09, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine W 73-69 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 214   North Alabama W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 23, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 290   @ Queens W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 182   North Florida W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 06, 2025 329   @ Stetson W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 13, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 214   @ North Alabama L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 18, 2025 188   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 182   @ North Florida L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 24, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 329   Stetson W 78-68 81%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.3 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.0 3.6 0.7 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.4 3.2 6.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.0 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 4.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.1 9.1 11.5 13.4 14.0 12.6 10.7 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 97.0% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-2 89.6% 2.0    1.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 65.1% 2.9    1.7 1.0 0.1
14-4 35.6% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.6% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 5.4 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 25.7% 25.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 31.5% 31.5% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 2.2% 31.3% 31.3% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5
15-3 4.5% 25.0% 25.0% 13.8 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.3
14-4 7.4% 19.3% 19.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 6.0
13-5 10.7% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1 9.1
12-6 12.6% 10.2% 10.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 11.3
11-7 14.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 12.8
10-8 13.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 12.7
9-9 11.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.2
8-10 9.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.9
7-11 6.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.0
6-12 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 3.4 1.7 91.1 0.0%