East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.8 131
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 154
Pace 65.7 259
Improvement -1.3 236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 144 C C C+ B- C+
Defense C+ 144 C- B- B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 49 C 59% 147 +3.3 71
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 135 B- 41% 89 +0.1 172
Three Pointers 37% 270 C- 32% 255 -3.0 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 116 C -0.1 176
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 160
Second Chance D+ 26.9% 280 B 1.13 55 C 0.30 190
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 117
Freethrows C+ 0.32 131 B 77% 43 B- 0.25 92
Total Offense C +0.8 144

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 136 B- 9.2% 82
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 311 C 5.1% 190
Three Pointers C+ 86% 159 C- 1.1% 244
Total C- 54% 213 C+ 5.4% 166

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 203 C- 60% 235 +0.4 196
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 340 B+ 33% 28 -2.8 8
Three Pointers 47% 30 C- 35% 216 +3.6 333
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 293 C +0.5 200
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 222
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 152 B- 0.95 73 B- 0.28 89
Turnovers B 19.1% 55
Freethrows C 0.30 183 D 75% 303 C 0.22 208
Total Defense C+ +1.0 144

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 199 C 11.3% 163
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 231 B 7.9% 46
Three Pointers D+ 87% 276 C 1.0% 134
Total D+ 61% 301 C 6.0% 148

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 274 17.0 141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 212 0.20 265
Improvement -0.7 #226 -0.7 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 154 134 116
Conference Record 13 - 5 14 - 4 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 37% 34%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 98% 100% 94%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round36% 37% 34%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 73.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 24 - 4
Quad 417 - 522 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 272 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 69% -2  33% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A D- C -1 C+ F A
 Wed, Nov 12 195 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 74% +8  98% 1 - 1 B- +7 D -5 A+ F F A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 340 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 84% -8  8% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -1 B F A- D+ -4 D F B
 Fri, Nov 21 286 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 87% +2  47% 3 - 1 C+ +5 C +0 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 353 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95% +20  97% 4 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 A A- B- A+ +12 A+ C B-
 Sat, Nov 29 180 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 72% +10  84% 5 - 1 A +19 C +0 A F A+ A+ +18 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 88 @Dayton L 71 - 88 23% -10  17% 5 - 2 D+ -8 C- -2 B B- F D -5 F B- B+
 Fri, Dec 5 188 South Alabama W 91 - 65 74% +5  53% 6 - 2 A +21 A+ +16 C- A+ A+ B+ +6 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 154 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 45% -6  1% 6 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 C+ D B- C -0 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 30 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 8% -10  3% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D+ B- B+ C- -3 D+ D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 200 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 75% -1  45% 6 - 5 D- -11 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ F -20 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 30 342 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 85% +13  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A- +16 C+ +2 D+ B- D- A+ +16 A- D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 175 Mercer W 77 - 71 71% +1  50% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 F A+ C C+ +1 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 358 VMI W 81 - 67 96% +10  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 C- -5 C- -1 B- D B- C- -3 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 300 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 88% +10  88% 10 - 5 4 - 0 A- +15 C- -0 A- F+ B A+ +15 A+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 254 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 65% +0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 D F A+ D+ -3 F C+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 187 @Samford W 76 - 75 52% +5  96% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A- C B+ F -10 F B- F+
 Wed, Jan 21 282 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 71% +2  72% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C- -3 F+ -8 F B+ C- B+ +5 D A A
 Fri, Jan 23 342 The Citadel W 84 - 55 94% +18  89% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +14 B+ +9 B A- B A- +7 C A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 254 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 82% -9  0% 13 - 7 7 - 2 D -10 B+ +8 C+ C A+ F -18 F F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 230 @Wofford W 86 - 72 60% +5  90% 14 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +13 A +14 D- A+ A+ C +0 C- D C
 Wed, Feb 4 181 Furman W 75 - 71 OT 72% -5  10% 15 - 7 9 - 2 C -0 D -4 C F B B +4 F B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 358 @VMI W 87 - 70 90% +10  91% 16 - 7 10 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- A- F C+ +1 D- C- C
 Wed, Feb 11 282 Chattanooga W 73 - 61 86% +4  82% 17 - 7 11 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -4 F D- A+ B+ +7 A C- C
 Sat, Feb 14 187 Samford L 72 - 82 OT 74% -2  22% 17 - 8 11 - 3 F+ -15 F -12 F+ D+ D- C- -2 A F C-
 Wed, Feb 18 181 @Furman W 78 - 69 50% +3  66% 18 - 8 12 - 3 B +11 B +7 A F D+ B +4 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 21 300 @UNC Greensboro W 79 - 72 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 230 Wofford W 80 - 71 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 175 @Mercer L 76 - 77 49%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 C +1 F C C+ C+ +1 C- B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B- C- C 44% 41% 37% C+ C D+ B C C+ C+ B B- C+ C- B+ C- C 38% 15% 47% D+ C- C+ B- B- B C D C
1.10 59% 41% 32% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.1 .30 16% .32 77% .25 1.07 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.04 30% 1.0 .28 19% .30 75% .24
Nov
8		 Presbyterian D- D- A F F 38% 17% 45% C- F B A A D- A+ A A+ C B+ A+ F+ B- 45% 15% 40% F C+ D- F F A F F+ F
0.99 50% 50% 14% -14 0 0.74 36% 1.2 .44 19% .40 76% .30 1.05 50% 17% 38% -5 +1 0.95 37% 1.3 .47 25% .53 73% .39
Nov
12		 Northern Kentucky D B A+ A+ A 67% 12% 21% A+ A+ F F F F A+ C A+ A+ B- A- A A- 38% 13% 49% C- B+ D- A+ A+ A+ B- C B-
1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35 0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18
Nov
15		 North Alabama C- A+ A C B+ 35% 18% 47% D B F F F A- D- F F D+ C+ A+ F+ D 41% 13% 46% D+ D D F F B F+ F F
1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13 1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31
Nov
21		 Morehead St. C C+ A F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ B C B- C+ A+ B A+ B+ F+ C D+ D- 31% 33% 36% A- D C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45 0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36
Nov
23		 Louisiana Monroe A A+ A- A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% C A B- A A- B- F A+ D A+ C A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C+ A+ B D- C B- B+ F+ B-
1.40 76% 50% 43% +15 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14 0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20
Nov
29		 Central Arkansas C A C+ A- A 35% 9% 56% B- A F D- F A+ C- F F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 13% 70% B A+ A+ F B- B- A+ F+ A+
1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13 0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
2		 Dayton C- B B B- B 37% 24% 39% C B B+ D+ B- F C- A+ B- D F F B- F 42% 16% 42% C+ F D- A+ B- B+ F D F
0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23 1.19 89% 43% 32% +12 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48
Dec
5		 South Alabama A+ C- F D+ D+ 36% 7% 57% B C- A- A+ A+ A+ F B D- B+ A- A+ F D 46% 8% 46% F D- A- A+ A+ B+ B A+ B+
1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12 0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16
Dec
12		 Austin Peay C+ B B+ C- C+ 41% 16% 43% B- C+ D D D B- D- A+ D+ C C F D+ D- 39% 12% 49% D- D- D A+ A+ C- C+ F D
1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19 1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25
Dec
16		 North Carolina C- C F F+ D 28% 26% 46% C D+ F+ A+ B- B+ A C- A C- F B+ C+ C- 39% 7% 55% F+ D+ B+ F D+ C- F B+ D
0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28
Dec
20		 Jacksonville St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% D+ A+ F+ B+ D+ D+ A+ B- A+ F D F F F 45% 5% 50% D- F F A+ C- B- F C+ F
1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45 1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36
Dec
30		 The Citadel C+ C- D B- D 51% 13% 36% B- D+ C+ B B- D- A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A 24% 11% 64% C- A- D C- D A+ C- A C+
1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31 0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17
Jan
3		 Mercer C F A+ F F 58% 7% 35% A+ F A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ C+ F A- B- D+ 38% 13% 48% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ B+ C+ B- B-
1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42 1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22
Jan
7		 VMI C- B+ A+ B- B- 43% 23% 34% C B- F A+ D B- B- A- B+ C- C D- A C- 42% 13% 44% D C- D+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27 1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 UNC Greensboro C- A+ C+ D+ B+ 53% 17% 30% A- A- F A+ F+ B F B F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F+ A+ F B- D A+ F F+ F
1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09 0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37
Jan
14		 Western Carolina D+ C F D+ F+ 44% 14% 42% B D C F F A+ A D+ A- D+ D+ F D F 36% 17% 47% C- F D- A- C+ A B D- C+
1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29 1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18
Jan
17		 Samford A A+ C A+ A+ 31% 44% 24% F A- F A+ C B+ B- A+ A F A- F F F 24% 16% 60% C+ F B+ D- B- F+ A+ F B+
1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30 1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20
Jan
21		 Chattanooga F+ D B+ F F 52% 13% 35% A- F C+ A B+ C- F C F B+ B- F C- D+ 41% 6% 53% F D C+ A+ A A A- F C+
1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14 0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
23		 The Citadel B+ A+ A+ B- B 37% 8% 55% C+ B D+ A+ A- B C+ C+ B- A- A+ A+ F C 31% 16% 53% C C A+ A- A+ D C- A+ A
1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21 0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11
Jan
29		 Western Carolina B+ C+ A+ C C+ 40% 20% 40% C C+ D+ B C A+ A+ B A+ F F A+ D- F 33% 15% 52% C- F C- F F D+ F D- F
1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45 1.31 87% 14% 38% +8 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Wofford A D F D- F 59% 14% 27% B+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F B+ C+ 58% 8% 34% F C- A F D C B F C
1.32 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.94 38% 1.7 .66 9% .47 93% .44 1.11 52% 75% 29% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
4		 Furman D C- F A C+ 44% 25% 31% C C F F F B A+ C A B F F C+ F 45% 9% 47% D- F B+ B B+ A+ A A A
1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25 0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12
Feb
7		 VMI C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% F A- C A+ A- F D- A+ C C+ B F C- D 39% 6% 56% F D- A+ F C- C C+ B- B-
1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22 0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 Chattanooga D+ F F F+ F 47% 17% 36% B- F F B- D- A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A A+ B+ A+ 37% 16% 47% D A B+ F C- C B+ F B-
1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43 0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18
Feb
14		 Samford F F+ B+ F F 42% 24% 35% B F+ D- B+ D+ D- B+ B- A- C- B+ A+ A A+ 36% 15% 49% D A B- F F C- F F F
0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27 1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48
Feb
18		 Furman B F B A+ A 41% 18% 41% B- A C- F F D+ A C+ A B D D- A+ A+ 30% 12% 58% C+ A+ D+ B+ C F F F F
1.14 43% 44% 52% +6 +1 1.16 30% 0.5 .16 16% .33 74% .24 1.01 67% 50% 17% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.8 .28 13% .47 75% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.7 21.2 46.2 29.5 98.5 1st
2nd 1.5 1.5 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 3.2 21.2 46.2 29.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 29.5    29.5
14-4 100.0% 46.2    46.2
13-5 100.0% 21.2    16.1 5.1
12-6 52.0% 1.7    0.0 0.7 1.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 98.5% 98.5 91.7 5.8 1.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 29.5% 39.8% 39.8% 13.3 0.8 6.4 4.4 0.2 17.7
14-4 46.2% 35.9% 35.9% 13.9 0.1 3.7 10.0 2.8 0.0 29.6
13-5 21.2% 32.0% 32.0% 14.2 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.2 0.1 14.4
12-6 3.2% 24.6% 24.6% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.4
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.9% 35.9% 0.0% 13.8 64.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.7% 100.0% 13.3 6.6 54.8 37.1 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.1%
Lose Out 0.8%