East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#141
Expected Predictive Rating-2.7#206
Pace66.5#262
Improvement-0.6#223

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#117
First Shot+3.8#81
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#294
Layup/Dunks+4.5#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#221
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+2.6#28

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-3.2#285
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#25
Layups/Dunks+2.5#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#344
Freethrows-1.6#286
Improvement-3.2#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.3% 30.2% 23.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 96.8% 97.8% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 97.4% 88.4%
Conference Champion 41.3% 44.0% 22.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round29.1% 30.0% 22.9%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 417 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 286 @Presbyterian L 64-68 68%     0 - 1 -7.6 -3.7 -4.2
  Wed, Nov 12 208 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 76%     1 - 1 +5.9 -2.8 +8.3
  Sat, Nov 15 244 @North Alabama W 78-74 62%     2 - 1 +2.2 +6.8 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 307 Morehead St. W 77-62 88%     3 - 1 +3.6 +5.8 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 23 359 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 95%     4 - 1 +24.1 +16.0 +8.6
  Sat, Nov 29 282 Central Arkansas W 80-57 84%     5 - 1 +13.5 +2.3 +10.7
  Tue, Dec 2 68 @Dayton L 71-88 18%     5 - 2 -5.9 +1.2 -6.2
  Fri, Dec 5 190 South Alabama W 91-65 73%     6 - 2 +21.1 +18.6 +3.0
  Fri, Dec 12 195 @Austin Peay L 75-76 52%     6 - 3 -0.3 +5.6 -5.9
  Tue, Dec 16 21 @North Carolina L 58-77 6%     6 - 4 +0.0 +3.6 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 20 236 Jacksonville St. L 75-81 80%     6 - 5 -13.5 +10.0 -24.3
  Wed, Dec 31 355 @The Citadel W 78-66 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 174 Mercer W 80-75 69%    
  Wed, Jan 7 332 VMI W 83-68 91%    
  Sat, Jan 10 294 UNC Greensboro W 79-68 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 299 @Western Carolina W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 @Samford W 76-74 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 235 @Chattanooga W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 355 The Citadel W 81-63 95%    
  Thu, Jan 29 299 Western Carolina W 81-69 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 220 @Wofford W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 148 Furman W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 332 @VMI W 80-71 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 235 Chattanooga W 77-68 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 227 Samford W 79-71 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 @Furman L 72-75 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 294 @UNC Greensboro W 76-71 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 220 Wofford W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 174 @Mercer L 77-78 47%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.2 10.6 11.4 8.2 3.7 0.9 41.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 6.3 8.8 5.8 1.6 0.2 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.1 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.6 1.1 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.3 7.1 11.0 14.6 16.5 16.7 13.0 8.4 3.7 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7 0.0
16-2 97.1% 8.2    7.6 0.6
15-3 87.5% 11.4    8.9 2.4 0.1
14-4 63.6% 10.6    5.9 4.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 31.7% 5.2    1.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.1% 1.2    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 41.3% 41.3 28.8 10.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 55.6% 55.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.7% 53.0% 53.0% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.7
16-2 8.4% 45.0% 45.0% 13.5 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.6
15-3 13.0% 39.7% 39.7% 13.9 0.1 1.3 3.0 0.8 0.0 7.9
14-4 16.7% 34.1% 34.1% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.9 0.1 11.0
13-5 16.5% 29.9% 29.9% 14.6 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.4 0.3 11.6
12-6 14.6% 23.7% 23.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.4 11.1
11-7 11.0% 18.0% 18.0% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 9.0
10-8 7.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 6.0
9-9 4.3% 12.0% 12.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.8
8-10 2.1% 6.8% 6.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.0
7-11 1.1% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.1 1.0
6-12 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.2 11.1 9.2 2.5 70.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.8 0.7 30.3 53.1 15.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%