East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#135
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#192
Pace67.4#228
Improvement+2.0#60

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#144
First Shot-1.4#219
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#61
Layup/Dunks-4.5#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#38
Freethrows-3.0#328
Improvement-0.9#248

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#155
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#265
Layups/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#40
Freethrows+0.5#158
Improvement+2.9#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 21.0% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 85.4% 94.5% 82.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 91.0% 84.4%
Conference Champion 21.7% 28.0% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round16.6% 20.9% 15.1%
Second Round1.7% 2.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 207   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 74%     0 - 1 -9.2 +4.5 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2024 134   @ Davidson L 70-76 38%     0 - 2 -1.6 +6.1 -8.3
  Nov 22, 2024 343   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.6 -0.6 -3.9
  Nov 24, 2024 290   Queens W 82-67 85%     2 - 2 +5.3 +6.0 -0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 205   @ Charlotte W 75-55 52%     3 - 2 +21.0 +6.7 +15.5
  Nov 30, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 79-57 79%     4 - 2 +14.8 +9.1 +7.1
  Dec 03, 2024 114   @ James Madison L 61-71 32%     4 - 3 -3.7 -5.5 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 68-75 25%    
  Dec 14, 2024 212   @ Jacksonville W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 18, 2024 173   Elon W 73-68 70%    
  Dec 21, 2024 292   @ UMKC W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 01, 2025 346   VMI W 81-64 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 142   Wofford W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 232   @ Mercer W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 325   The Citadel W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 15, 2025 119   @ Furman L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 121   @ Samford L 80-84 36%    
  Jan 22, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 78-68 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 200   Chattanooga W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 29, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 119   Furman W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 346   @ VMI W 78-67 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 121   Samford W 83-81 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 200   @ Chattanooga W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 26, 2025 232   Mercer W 78-70 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 72-64 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.4 5.8 3.4 1.3 0.3 21.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 5.3 7.1 3.8 0.9 0.1 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.4 6.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.4 5.9 1.8 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.0 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.5 9.1 12.5 14.1 14.7 13.4 10.5 6.7 3.5 1.3 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 98.3% 3.4    3.1 0.3
15-3 86.5% 5.8    4.5 1.2 0.1
14-4 60.9% 6.4    3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 27.1% 3.6    0.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 13.5 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 51.3% 51.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.3% 43.8% 43.8% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.5% 42.7% 42.7% 12.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0
15-3 6.7% 31.7% 31.7% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.6
14-4 10.5% 29.8% 29.8% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 7.4
13-5 13.4% 21.9% 21.9% 13.5 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.5
12-6 14.7% 16.7% 16.7% 14.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.0 12.2
11-7 14.1% 12.0% 12.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 12.4
10-8 12.5% 8.8% 8.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.4
9-9 9.1% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.4
8-10 6.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.2
7-11 3.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.8
6-12 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.5 5.0 2.7 0.7 83.3 0.0%