Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.1 12
Expected Predictive Rating +20.1 14
Pace 73.2 64
Improvement -2.9 298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 14 B+ B+ A- B+ C+
Defense A- 21 A- B B+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 202 A 69% 12 +3.6 62
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 300 C+ 39% 126 -1.1 242
Three Pointers 45% 93 B 37% 65 +3.9 57
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 139 B+ +5.8 29
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 31
Second Chance C+ 32.7% 110 A 1.22 14 B+ 0.40 40
Turnovers A- 13.0% 13
Freethrows B- 0.33 92 A- 79% 9 B+ 0.26 40
Total Offense A +11.0 14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 288 B 52% 51 -4.0 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 44 B- 36% 93 +1.4 297
Three Pointers 39% 237 A 28% 7 -4.2 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 44 A- -5.8 19
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 19
Second Chance B 26.9% 64 B- 0.95 67 B 0.26 46
Turnovers B+ 19.8% 37
Freethrows D+ 0.33 265 D+ 74% 276 D+ 0.24 282
Total Defense A- +8.1 21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.5 34 18.0 282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 44 0.10 13
Improvement -2.6 #314 -0.3 #212

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 3% 4% 1%
Top 2 Seed 14% 18% 6%
Top 4 Seed 66% 74% 49%
Top 6 Seed 97% 99% 93%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 3.9 3.7 4.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 99%
Conference Champion 2% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round92% 94% 89%
Sweet Sixteen55% 58% 49%
Elite Eight25% 27% 20%
Final Four10% 11% 8%
Championship Game4% 5% 3%
National Champion2% 2% 1%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 19 - 6
Quad 28 - 118 - 7
Quad 33 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 194 Lipscomb W 105 - 61 98% +29  97% 1 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +21 A+ F A+ A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 55 @Central Florida W 105 - 93 72% +12  92% 2 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ D+ -3 D- C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 273 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 62 99% +19  97% 3 - 0 A +20 B- +5 A- F+ B- A+ +14 A+ A B-
 Sat, Nov 15 319 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104 - 75 99% +14  100% 4 - 0 A- +16 A+ +15 C- A+ A+ C -1 C B C-
 Thu, Nov 20 308 Texas Southern W 109 - 74 99% +24  95% 5 - 0 A+ +23 A+ +21 A A+ A- C +0 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 167 Western Kentucky W 83 - 78 96% +6  81% 6 - 0 C+ +5 C- -2 C+ D+ D- B+ +6 D+ A A+
 Thu, Nov 27 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 89 - 74 78% +10  93% 7 - 0 A+ +26 A +12 A+ C- F A+ +13 A+ B- B
 Fri, Nov 28 41 St. Mary's W 96 - 71 72% +13  99% 8 - 0 A+ +38 A+ +25 A+ A+ A+ A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 37 SMU W 88 - 69 78% +9  93% 9 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +17 A+ C+ A+ A+ +13 A+ D- A
 Sat, Dec 13 185 Central Arkansas W 83 - 72 98% +15  100% 10 - 0 B- +6 C -0 F A+ B B+ +6 A C C
 Wed, Dec 17 93 @Memphis W 77 - 70 OT 84% +3  76% 11 - 0 A- +15 D -5 D- D D A+ +19 A A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 62 @Wake Forest W 98 - 67 76% +19  99% 12 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +24 A+ D+ A A+ +17 A+ A A+
 Mon, Dec 29 330 New Haven W 96 - 53 99% +24  99% 13 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +19 A+ A- B+ A +11 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 3 94 @South Carolina W 83 - 71 84% +10  92% 14 - 0 1 - 0 A +20 A+ +18 A+ B- A B- +3 B+ B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 18 Alabama W 96 - 90 65% +5  83% 15 - 0 2 - 0 A +21 B+ +9 B- A- A A+ +11 A+ D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 56 LSU W 84 - 73 87% +11  96% 16 - 0 3 - 0 A +18 B+ +8 B D- A+ A +9 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 27 @Texas L 64 - 80 53% -6  7% 16 - 1 3 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 C F C B +4 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 4 Florida L 94 - 98 45% -2  25% 16 - 2 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +26 A+ A- A+ F+ -9 C+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 20 17 @Arkansas L 68 - 93 41% -15  0% 16 - 3 3 - 3 C- -4 C+ +3 F A+ B+ D- -8 D C D+
 Sat, Jan 24 75 @Mississippi St. W 88 - 56 79% +20  97% 17 - 3 4 - 3 A+ +43 A +14 A+ B+ B- A+ +27 A+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 27 24 Kentucky W 80 - 55 71% +18  99% 18 - 3 5 - 3 A+ +38 A- +11 B B+ A A+ +28 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 74 Mississippi W 71 - 68 91% +7  98% 19 - 3 6 - 3 B- +8 B- +5 B- B- C+ B- +3 B B A-
 Sat, Feb 7 51 Oklahoma L 91 - 92 85% -13  0% 19 - 4 6 - 4 B- +7 A- +11 C A+ C- D+ -3 C- F+ A
 Tue, Feb 10 30 @Auburn W 84 - 76 55% +7  96% 20 - 4 7 - 4 A+ +26 A+ +22 B A+ A+ B+ +5 A+ F C-
 Sat, Feb 14 33 Texas A&M W 82 - 69 77% +5  77% 21 - 4 8 - 4 A+ +25 A- +11 C A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 54 @Missouri W 82 - 76 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 19 Tennessee W 78 - 74 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 39 Georgia W 91 - 82 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 @Kentucky L 79 - 80 49%
 Tue, Mar 3 74 @Mississippi W 80 - 72 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 @Tennessee L 75 - 77 42%
Totals 25 - 6 12 - 6 +19 A +11 A B+ C+ A- +8 B A- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A C+ B B+ 38% 27% 45% C+ B+ C+ A B+ A- B- A- B+ A- B B- A A- 35% 26% 39% B A- B B- B B+ D+ D+ D+
1.24 69% 39% 37% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.2 .40 13% .33 79% .26 0.97 52% 36% 28% -6 -1 0.88 27% 0.9 .26 20% .33 74% .25
Nov
3		 Lipscomb A+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 20% 45% C+ A+ D- F F A+ D C- D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 18% 48% A- A+ C+ D+ C A+ F F F
1.40 76% 25% 63% +23 0 1.48 24% 0.5 .12 8% .25 71% .17 0.82 41% 11% 25% -17 0 0.68 24% 1.1 .26 24% .39 95% .37
Nov
8		 Central Florida A+ A+ A+ B A+ 32% 12% 56% B A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ C D+ C- A F F+ 41% 27% 31% B- D- A F C+ C+ F D F
1.42 74% 71% 36% +11 +1 1.25 30% 1.9 .57 8% .25 88% .22 1.25 62% 29% 56% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.5 .43 16% .45 79% .35
Nov
12		 Eastern Kentucky B- A+ C- A A 39% 20% 41% C A- B F F+ B- F F F A+ C C A+ A+ 13% 30% 57% A A+ A+ B A B- F+ D+ F+
1.26 78% 42% 42% +13 0 1.29 38% 0.6 .22 14% .25 63% .16 0.85 57% 38% 23% -10 -3 0.76 23% 1.0 .23 19% .32 74% .24
Nov
15		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A+ B C D- C- 34% 14% 52% C C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ C- F C 31% 25% 43% B- C B+ B- B C- F B- F
1.40 65% 38% 30% -1 +1 1.02 49% 1.5 .72 9% .49 76% .37 1.01 38% 38% 41% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.9 .18 17% .42 73% .31
Nov
20		 Texas Southern A+ A+ A+ C+ A 35% 10% 55% C+ A A+ C+ A+ A- D A- C- C F+ D- F F 20% 50% 30% A+ F B+ A+ A+ C+ F B+ F
1.46 77% 67% 35% +11 +1 1.26 49% 1.2 .57 12% .34 77% .26 0.99 67% 43% 50% +12 -5 1.15 21% 0.3 .06 19% .48 66% .31
Nov
26		 Western Kentucky C- A- F B C+ 37% 20% 43% B- C+ F+ B D+ D- A+ C A+ B+ D A+ D D+ 38% 18% 44% C- D+ C+ A+ A A+ F C+ F
1.03 67% 20% 38% +2 0 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 21% .58 70% .41 0.97 58% 11% 36% -3 0 0.96 32% 0.6 .18 21% .52 73% .38
Nov
27		 Virginia Commonwealth A B- A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% C+ A+ B F+ C- F A+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% C A+ A+ F B- B F D+ F
1.18 58% 50% 53% +13 +1 1.30 33% 0.8 .27 23% .57 73% .41 0.98 44% 60% 21% -13 +1 0.78 21% 1.6 .33 17% .56 77% .43
Nov
28		 St. Mary's A+ A+ F A+ A+ 41% 30% 29% D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F B+ B 35% 24% 41% B B A+ D+ A+ A+ D+ F F+
1.32 83% 12% 44% +6 -1 1.13 31% 1.5 .49 10% .34 82% .27 0.98 56% 45% 32% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 22% .35 90% .32
Dec
3		 SMU A+ A+ A+ F A+ 45% 17% 38% A- A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ F+ A A+ A+ 33% 41% 25% A+ A+ D+ D- D- A F B- F
1.30 81% 60% 27% +10 +1 1.24 21% 1.3 .29 7% .19 83% .16 1.02 71% 33% 15% -5 -3 0.86 40% 1.2 .48 19% .42 74% .31
Dec
13		 Central Arkansas C D+ A+ F F 31% 6% 63% B- F B A+ A+ B A- A+ A+ B+ C A B+ A- 22% 22% 56% A A B F+ C C F D+ F
1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29 0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30
Dec
17		 Memphis D D- B+ F D- 29% 24% 47% D+ D- B- F D D A+ A- A+ A+ B B- A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% B A A+ A+ A+ A- F D- F
0.90 50% 42% 22% -10 -1 0.80 35% 0.7 .23 23% .61 78% .47 0.82 53% 33% 22% -9 -1 0.81 27% 0.6 .17 23% .40 77% .30
Dec
21		 Wake Forest A+ A+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% B+ A+ F+ B+ D+ A D C+ D A+ A- C A+ A+ 36% 20% 43% B- A+ D- A+ A A+ F C- F
1.34 84% 25% 52% +23 +2 1.52 22% 1.2 .26 16% .26 75% .20 0.92 50% 44% 21% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.8 .28 23% .57 78% .45
Dec
29		 New Haven A+ A+ F A+ A+ 56% 7% 37% A A+ A C A- B+ F+ A+ D+ A C B A+ A 48% 24% 28% D+ A- A A- A- C A+ C A+
1.40 75% 25% 43% +14 +3 1.35 39% 1.1 .43 13% .20 92% .18 0.77 58% 31% 13% -10 0 0.81 14% 0.8 .11 19% .13 71% .09
Jan
3		 South Carolina A+ B- A- A+ A+ 38% 23% 40% C+ A+ C A- B- A B A+ A B- B F A+ A- 38% 15% 47% D+ B+ A+ F B+ F B- B- B
1.28 61% 45% 47% +11 0 1.23 29% 1.1 .32 11% .31 83% .26 1.09 55% 63% 24% -4 +1 0.94 15% 1.6 .24 6% .29 78% .23
Jan
7		 Alabama B+ B- D C B- 36% 30% 34% C- B- D- A+ A- A A+ B- A+ A+ B D A+ A+ 26% 16% 57% A A+ D D D- B+ F C F
1.16 58% 31% 33% -2 -1 0.94 21% 1.8 .36 10% .67 70% .47 1.09 56% 50% 17% -13 0 0.75 38% 1.3 .48 16% .54 76% .41
Jan
10		 LSU B+ A- A+ F B 38% 15% 47% B B B- F D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A A F C+ A- 46% 19% 35% C- B+ B+ A+ A+ A B+ A- A
1.18 65% 75% 24% +1 +1 1.06 32% 0.6 .19 10% .45 79% .36 1.02 50% 50% 33% -2 +1 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 20% .30 71% .21
Jan
14		 Texas D+ F D- A+ C+ 27% 33% 40% D- C C F F C F+ C+ D- B C F F F 38% 24% 38% B- F+ D- A+ B+ A+ D+ F F
0.97 43% 29% 43% -1 -2 0.94 24% 0.4 .10 15% .27 73% .20 1.21 63% 60% 44% +13 0 1.26 44% 0.9 .40 23% .43 86% .37
Jan
17		 Florida A+ B- A+ B A+ 30% 34% 36% D A+ C- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ F+ A- F C- C- 37% 23% 40% A+ C+ B F F D+ F F F
1.29 56% 57% 36% +7 -2 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 5% .32 91% .29 1.35 53% 67% 33% +4 0 1.10 39% 1.7 .67 14% .48 83% .40
Jan
20		 Arkansas C+ A F F F 24% 25% 51% D- F D A+ A+ B+ A A- A+ D- F B- F+ D- 46% 25% 30% C+ D C- B- C D+ A+ F A
1.01 67% 15% 19% -15 -2 0.69 24% 2.2 .53 15% .33 74% .24 1.38 81% 36% 41% +13 0 1.28 36% 1.2 .43 10% .20 83% .17
Jan
24		 Mississippi St. A A+ A- F+ A+ 40% 22% 38% A- A+ F+ A+ B+ B- F A+ D A+ A C+ A+ A+ 26% 25% 49% B A+ A+ B+ A A+ C- B C
1.19 79% 46% 26% +6 0 1.13 17% 2.0 .33 12% .17 91% .15 0.76 50% 38% 19% -13 -1 0.74 23% 0.9 .20 23% .30 65% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Kentucky A- F B+ A- B- 38% 14% 48% A- B A B- B+ A A+ A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 31% 33% 37% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C A+ A-
1.14 42% 43% 38% -3 +1 0.98 35% 0.8 .30 13% .41 80% .33 0.79 53% 19% 22% -14 -2 0.69 30% 0.9 .28 21% .35 58% .20
Jan
31		 Mississippi B- A+ B- F B- 30% 11% 60% B+ B- B+ C- B- C+ A- B- A- B- F B- B B- 21% 48% 31% A+ B D A+ B A- F D- F
1.11 79% 40% 25% -2 +1 1.00 35% 1.0 .35 17% .40 71% .28 1.06 78% 35% 31% +1 -5 0.95 34% 0.8 .28 17% .47 80% .38
Feb
7		 Oklahoma A- C- D- B+ C+ 28% 28% 45% D C B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F B D+ 44% 23% 33% C+ C- C+ F F+ A F C+ F
1.23 54% 31% 38% 0 -2 0.98 38% 1.9 .72 18% .51 84% .42 1.24 67% 55% 31% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.6 .53 19% .48 72% .35
Feb
10		 Auburn A+ B- F A B- 40% 14% 47% B+ B A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ 51% 14% 35% D A+ F D F C- F D+ F
1.31 59% 17% 40% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .50 11% .53 87% .46 1.19 44% 0% 41% -9 +2 0.88 51% 1.2 .60 12% .48 78% .37
Feb
14		 Texas A&M A- C+ D C C 30% 19% 51% C C B A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ 47% 9% 45% C- A+ D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 57% 33% 33% -2 0 0.98 34% 1.3 .43 13% .48 79% .38 0.99 59% 0% 31% -5 +2 0.97 36% 0.5 .18 16% .17 50% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 1.5 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 10.8 4.4 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 12.0 11.4 0.8 24.7 3rd
4th 0.0 4.8 13.8 0.9 19.5 4th
5th 0.6 10.8 3.8 0.0 15.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 7.8 0.3 11.7 6th
7th 0.5 4.5 1.1 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 2.6 10.2 25.0 31.5 23.8 6.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 23.1% 1.5    0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.7% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.2 1.4 3.2 1.9 0.3 100.0%
13-5 23.8% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 3.0 1.4 5.3 10.3 5.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 31.5% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 3.8 0.2 2.3 9.9 11.5 6.4 1.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 25.0% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.6 0.1 0.3 3.6 7.3 9.2 4.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.2% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 3.7 1.2 0.1 100.0%
9-9 2.6% 99.2% 3.5% 95.8% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.2%
8-10 0.2% 95.5% 95.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.5%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3.9 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.6 46.7 46.7 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 100.0% 2.1 21.0 52.2 24.6 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 2.3 11.4 48.9 35.9 3.8