Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.1#9
Expected Predictive Rating+24.1#8
Pace74.3#60
Improvement-0.5#208

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#6
First Shot+10.2#9
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#89
Layup/Dunks+5.7#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#56
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement-3.0#353

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#13
First Shot+5.1#42
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#10
Layups/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#72
Freethrows-3.3#346
Improvement+2.5#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.4% 4.4% 4.8%
#1 Seed 22.9% 22.9% 28.6%
Top 2 Seed 52.4% 52.4% 33.3%
Top 4 Seed 87.7% 87.7% 81.0%
Top 6 Seed 97.2% 97.2% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.7 2.7 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 39.8% 39.8% 33.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Second Round94.4% 94.5% 85.7%
Sweet Sixteen66.5% 66.5% 57.1%
Elite Eight37.1% 37.1% 14.3%
Final Four18.5% 18.5% 0.0%
Championship Game8.9% 8.9% 0.0%
National Champion3.9% 3.9% 0.0%

Next Game: New Haven (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b8 - 212 - 5
Quad 28 - 120 - 6
Quad 32 - 022 - 6
Quad 45 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 144 Lipscomb W 105-61 97%     1 - 0 +42.2 +25.8 +13.5
  Sat, Nov 8 49 @Central Florida W 105-93 74%     2 - 0 +25.4 +30.7 -5.9
  Wed, Nov 12 259 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 99%     3 - 0 +21.6 +10.4 +10.0
  Sat, Nov 15 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99.6%    4 - 0 +13.2 +18.3 -6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 327 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     5 - 0 +22.1 +23.9 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 26 145 Western Kentucky W 83-78 95%     6 - 0 +6.1 -0.1 +5.5
  Thu, Nov 27 47 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 80%     7 - 0 +26.1 +15.4 +9.7
  Fri, Nov 28 44 St. Mary's W 96-71 79%     8 - 0 +36.7 +27.3 +8.6
  Wed, Dec 3 42 SMU W 88-69 85%     9 - 0 +28.1 +20.6 +8.2
  Sat, Dec 13 282 Central Arkansas W 83-72 99%     10 - 0 +1.5 +1.5 -0.7
  Wed, Dec 17 72 @Memphis W 77-70 OT 81%     11 - 0 +17.7 -2.1 +18.6
  Sun, Dec 21 61 @Wake Forest W 98-67 79%     12 - 0 +42.8 +27.4 +14.1
  Mon, Dec 29 340 New Haven W 89-54 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 90 @South Carolina W 81-70 84%    
  Tue, Jan 6 15 Alabama W 93-87 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 39 LSU W 85-74 84%    
  Wed, Jan 14 41 @Texas W 83-78 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 12 Florida W 82-77 69%    
  Tue, Jan 20 23 @Arkansas W 84-82 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 80 @Mississippi St. W 83-73 83%    
  Tue, Jan 27 20 Kentucky W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 63 @Mississippi W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 45 Oklahoma W 87-75 86%    
  Tue, Feb 10 34 @Auburn W 83-79 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 43 Texas A&M W 89-78 85%    
  Wed, Feb 18 60 @Missouri W 85-77 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 14 Tennessee W 78-72 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 22 Georgia W 92-85 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 20 @Kentucky W 80-79 53%    
  Wed, Mar 4 63 Mississippi W 83-68 91%    
  Sat, Mar 7 14 @Tennessee L 75-76 49%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.1 9.0 11.8 9.7 4.6 1.3 39.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 7.6 6.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.4 4.8 1.2 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.2 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.5 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.6 6.1 9.9 13.8 16.5 16.9 14.2 10.0 4.7 1.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.6% 4.6    4.5 0.1
16-2 96.8% 9.7    8.6 1.1 0.0
15-3 83.3% 11.8    8.2 3.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 52.9% 9.0    3.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.8% 3.1    0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 26.9 9.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 51.9% 48.1% 1.2 1.1 0.2 100.0%
17-1 4.7% 100.0% 45.5% 54.5% 1.3 3.5 1.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 10.0% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 1.4 5.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.2% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.7 5.9 6.7 1.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 16.9% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 2.1 4.2 8.1 4.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.5% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.6 1.8 5.9 6.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 3.1 0.4 2.9 6.0 3.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
11-7 9.9% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.8 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.1% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 3.6% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 1.7% 99.6% 3.9% 95.7% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
7-11 0.9% 98.5% 3.0% 95.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
6-12 0.3% 86.2% 3.2% 83.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.7%
5-13 0.1% 66.7% 66.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 25.5% 74.4% 2.7 22.9 29.5 22.9 12.4 6.3 3.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.7 29.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2