Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#67
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#42
Pace73.4#67
Improvement+0.7#141

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#41
First Shot+4.8#58
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#93
Layup/Dunks+5.2#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#221
Freethrows+1.0#119
Improvement+0.1#174

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#98
First Shot+2.1#114
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#150
Layups/Dunks-0.4#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement+0.6#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 2.2% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 6.0% 8.0% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.0% 34.8% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.7% 34.5% 21.2%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 8.7
.500 or above 73.6% 82.6% 61.8%
.500 or above in Conference 14.8% 17.2% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.3% 22.4% 29.0%
First Four6.0% 6.9% 4.9%
First Round25.8% 31.2% 18.6%
Second Round12.7% 16.2% 8.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 5.1% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.7% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Neutral) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 38 - 14
Quad 33 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 98%     1 - 0 +21.8 +18.2 +2.5
  Nov 10, 2024 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 95%     2 - 0 -0.9 +5.8 -7.1
  Nov 13, 2024 109   California W 85-69 78%     3 - 0 +16.8 +3.9 +11.6
  Nov 16, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 94-81 96%     4 - 0 +1.6 +13.7 -12.7
  Nov 21, 2024 48   Nevada W 73-71 44%     5 - 0 +12.3 +7.3 +5.1
  Nov 22, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 76-60 72%     6 - 0 +19.0 +14.8 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2024 73   Drake L 70-81 55%     6 - 1 -3.3 +1.5 -4.6
  Nov 29, 2024 330   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +18.2 +5.9 +11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 129   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 66%     8 - 1 +20.7 +14.3 +7.1
  Dec 08, 2024 78   TCU W 77-75 57%    
  Dec 18, 2024 325   The Citadel W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 21, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 30, 2024 344   New Orleans W 92-68 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 47   @ LSU L 76-80 34%    
  Jan 07, 2025 15   Mississippi St. L 77-80 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 63   @ Missouri L 78-81 38%    
  Jan 15, 2025 69   South Carolina W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 4   Tennessee L 70-78 22%    
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 79-92 12%    
  Jan 25, 2025 9   Kentucky L 80-86 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 41   @ Oklahoma L 74-79 31%    
  Feb 04, 2025 10   @ Florida L 76-88 15%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   Texas L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 3   Auburn L 77-85 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 67-81 10%    
  Feb 19, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 77-89 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 26   Mississippi L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 26, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 63   Missouri W 81-78 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 33   Arkansas L 78-79 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 38   @ Georgia L 74-80 29%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 2.3 0.3 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.2 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 4.7 1.1 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 5.3 3.2 0.2 10.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.2 2.1 0.1 12.9 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 14.6 15th
16th 0.5 2.3 4.5 5.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 15.5 16th
Total 0.5 2.3 5.5 9.9 13.5 15.4 15.1 13.1 9.9 6.7 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 53.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.1% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.3% 99.6% 2.6% 97.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-8 4.2% 98.0% 1.3% 96.8% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
9-9 6.7% 92.7% 0.4% 92.3% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.5 92.7%
8-10 9.9% 75.3% 0.4% 74.8% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.1 2.5 75.2%
7-11 13.1% 39.0% 0.2% 38.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 0.3 8.0 38.9%
6-12 15.1% 12.5% 0.1% 12.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.3 13.2 12.5%
5-13 15.4% 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.2 1.4%
4-14 13.5% 13.5
3-15 9.9% 9.9
2-16 5.5% 5.5
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 29.0% 0.3% 28.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.4 5.8 0.7 71.0 28.7%