Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.4 #7
Expected Predictive Rating +25.3 #8
Pace 74.3 #53
Improvement -1.0 #236

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #7 A+ C+ B+ A C+
Defense #14 A F A B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #153 1.42 #6 +5.4 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #248 0.79 #128 -0.9 #223
Three Pointers 44% #135 1.21 #15 +5.7 #29
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #7 +10.2 #7
Freethrows 17.3 #195 77% #59 13.3 #137
Second Chance 33.5% #102 1.17 #44 0.39 #54
Turnovers 13.0% #14
Total Offense +11.7 #7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.04 #49 +4.9 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #52 0.73 #154 -1.6 #292
Three Pointers 41% #184 0.85 #28 +3.3 #66
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #25 +6.6 #25
Freethrows 21.3 #335 74% #235 15.7 #338
Second Chance 23.4% #11 0.93 #60 0.22 #17
Turnovers 18.9% #67
Total Defense +8.7 #14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #122 -2.0% #39
Shot Type Make % Effect 18.8% #7 -11.2% #27
Possession Length 15.7 #52 17.7 #251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #31 0.11 #18
Improvement -2.0 #308 +1.1 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 5.9% 2.2%
#1 Seed 26.5% 31.0% 17.0%
Top 2 Seed 62.1% 69.1% 47.0%
Top 4 Seed 93.3% 95.9% 88.0%
Top 6 Seed 98.7% 99.4% 97.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.4 2.2 2.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.0% 95.6%
Conference Champion 45.9% 55.6% 25.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round96.1% 97.1% 94.0%
Sweet Sixteen69.4% 71.6% 64.6%
Elite Eight40.0% 42.6% 34.5%
Final Four19.9% 21.4% 16.6%
Championship Game9.2% 10.2% 7.1%
National Champion4.0% 4.6% 2.7%

Next Game: Alabama (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b8 - 213 - 5
Quad 27 - 120 - 5
Quad 32 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 160 Lipscomb W 105-61 98%     28.5   1 - 0 +40.7 +24.9 +13.0
  Sat, Nov 8 48 @Central Florida W 105-93 72%     12.5   2 - 0 +26.3 +31.0 -5.4
  Wed, Nov 12 265 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 99%     18.8   3 - 0 +21.0 +9.2 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 15 340 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99.6%    16.2   4 - 0 +14.5 +16.8 -4.0
  Thu, Nov 20 326 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     24.5   5 - 0 +21.8 +24.3 -4.7
  Wed, Nov 26 144 Western Kentucky W 83-78 95%     6.1   6 - 0 +5.9 -0.7 +5.9
  Thu, Nov 27 45 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 80%     9.8   7 - 0 +26.6 +13.9 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 28 42 St. Mary's W 96-71 78%     12.8   8 - 0 +37.4 +26.5 +10.0
  Wed, Dec 3 30 SMU W 88-69 80%     8.8   9 - 0 +30.4 +20.8 +10.2
  Sat, Dec 13 254 Central Arkansas W 83-72 99%     14.6   10 - 0 +2.6 +0.0 +1.9
  Wed, Dec 17 75 @Memphis W 77-70 OT 82%     3.3   11 - 0 +17.6 -1.8 +18.2
  Sun, Dec 21 58 @Wake Forest W 98-67 79%     19.4   12 - 0 +43.1 +28.4 +13.4
  Mon, Dec 29 327 New Haven W 96-53 99%     23.9   13 - 0 +29.7 +21.7 +9.0
  Sat, Jan 3 88 @South Carolina W 83-71 84%     10.5   14 - 0 1 - 0 +21.7 +21.0 +1.6
  Tue, Jan 6 12 Alabama W 92-87 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 38 LSU W 85-75 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 46 @Texas W 85-79 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 14 Florida W 83-77 70%    
  Tue, Jan 20 21 @Arkansas W 85-84 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 64 @Mississippi St. W 84-75 80%    
  Tue, Jan 27 23 Kentucky W 83-75 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 70 @Mississippi W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 44 Oklahoma W 87-76 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 29 @Auburn W 83-80 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 43 Texas A&M W 90-79 85%    
  Wed, Feb 18 56 @Missouri W 85-77 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 17 Tennessee W 79-73 72%    
  Wed, Feb 25 20 Georgia W 92-85 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 23 @Kentucky W 80-78 57%    
  Wed, Mar 4 70 Mississippi W 83-68 91%    
  Sat, Mar 7 17 @Tennessee W 77-76 51%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.3 10.8 13.6 10.3 5.1 1.3 45.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.9 6.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.4 3.9 0.7 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.2 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.1 2.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 9.5 13.3 16.8 17.6 15.6 10.6 5.1 1.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 99.9% 5.1    5.0 0.1
16-2 96.6% 10.3    9.3 0.9 0.0
15-3 87.4% 13.6    9.9 3.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 61.6% 10.8    5.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.4% 4.3    0.9 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.9% 45.9 31.5 10.7 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.2 1.1 0.2 100.0%
17-1 5.1% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.3 3.8 1.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 10.6% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 1.4 6.3 4.1 0.3 100.0%
15-3 15.6% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.6 7.0 7.4 1.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.6% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.9 5.1 9.2 3.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.8% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.3 2.4 7.9 5.6 0.8 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.3% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.8 0.7 3.9 6.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.5% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.3 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
10-8 5.3% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 2.9% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 1.3% 99.6% 3.4% 96.2% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
7-11 0.5% 99.0% 2.0% 97.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
6-12 0.2% 90.0% 90.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 26.4% 73.5% 2.4 26.5 35.5 21.9 9.4 3.9 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 90.7 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 87.9 12.1