Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.1#7
Expected Predictive Rating+26.7#4
Pace63.6#326
Improvement-0.7#233

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#14
First Shot+8.6#14
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#87
Layup/Dunks+8.3#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#103
Freethrows-1.3#270
Improvement-2.4#336

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#5
First Shot+10.1#6
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#130
Layups/Dunks+4.2#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#5
Freethrows-2.8#335
Improvement+1.6#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.6% 7.0% 2.7%
#1 Seed 32.9% 34.3% 17.0%
Top 2 Seed 66.7% 68.6% 45.1%
Top 4 Seed 94.9% 95.6% 87.0%
Top 6 Seed 99.5% 99.6% 98.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 75.3% 76.9% 56.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.9% 97.1% 95.0%
Sweet Sixteen72.1% 72.7% 65.5%
Elite Eight44.1% 44.9% 34.9%
Final Four23.6% 24.1% 17.9%
Championship Game11.8% 12.1% 8.8%
National Champion5.7% 5.8% 3.6%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 4
Quad 29 - 119 - 4
Quad 36 - 025 - 4
Quad 44 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 334 New Haven W 79-55 99.6%    1 - 0 +10.3 +5.7 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 7 298 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +52.6 +24.7 +23.8
  Mon, Nov 10 129 Columbia W 89-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.8 +20.0 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 15 9 BYU W 86-84 56%     4 - 0 +21.5 +16.5 +4.9
  Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67-71 54%     4 - 1 +16.2 +12.0 +3.7
  Sun, Nov 23 300 Bryant W 72-49 99%     5 - 1 +12.6 +0.9 +13.4
  Fri, Nov 28 12 Illinois W 74-61 62%     6 - 1 +30.9 +11.5 +20.1
  Tue, Dec 2 17 @Kansas W 61-56 54%     7 - 1 +25.1 +7.9 +17.8
  Fri, Dec 5 299 East Texas A&M W 83-59 99%     8 - 1 +13.6 +12.3 +2.9
  Tue, Dec 9 13 Florida W 77-73 63%     9 - 1 +21.7 +16.4 +5.5
  Fri, Dec 12 41 Texas W 71-63 86%     10 - 1 +17.3 +5.0 +12.8
  Tue, Dec 16 58 Butler W 79-60 90%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +25.7 +9.1 +16.6
  Sun, Dec 21 112 @DePaul W 76-61 92%    
  Wed, Dec 31 95 @Xavier W 78-65 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 105 Marquette W 81-61 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 79 @Providence W 82-71 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 112 DePaul W 79-58 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 52 @Seton Hall W 69-61 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 96 @Georgetown W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 35 Villanova W 72-61 84%    
  Tue, Jan 27 79 Providence W 85-68 94%    
  Sat, Jan 31 37 @Creighton W 72-67 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 95 Xavier W 81-62 96%    
  Fri, Feb 6 20 @St. John's W 74-72 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 58 @Butler W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 96 Georgetown W 81-62 96%    
  Wed, Feb 18 37 Creighton W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 35 @Villanova W 69-64 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 20 St. John's W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 52 Seton Hall W 72-58 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 105 @Marquette W 78-64 89%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.2 9.6 17.9 21.2 16.3 6.5 75.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.4 5.6 2.5 0.5 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.7 5.3 10.0 15.5 20.4 21.7 16.3 6.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.5    6.5
19-1 100.0% 16.3    16.1 0.2
18-2 97.9% 21.2    19.6 1.6 0.0
17-3 87.6% 17.9    14.0 3.8 0.1
16-4 62.0% 9.6    5.7 3.5 0.4
15-5 32.2% 3.2    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0
14-6 10.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 75.3% 75.3 63.2 10.7 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.5% 100.0% 70.1% 29.9% 1.2 5.2 1.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 16.3% 100.0% 64.9% 35.1% 1.4 10.5 5.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 21.7% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 1.6 10.2 9.4 2.0 0.1 100.0%
17-3 20.4% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 2.1 5.1 9.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.5% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 2.6 1.6 5.7 6.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.0% 100.0% 39.8% 60.2% 3.2 0.3 1.9 4.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.3% 100.0% 36.8% 63.2% 3.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.7% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 4.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.1% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.5% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 2.2 32.9 33.8 19.3 8.9 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 1.2 83.4 16.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.3 71.9 27.7 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.3 73.8 24.5 1.7