Connecticut
Big East
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.2#6
Expected Predictive Rating+14.8#18
Pace69.0#157
Improvement-2.8#360

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#11
First Shot+7.2#18
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#50
Layup/Dunks+3.4#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#28
Freethrows+2.8#20
Improvement-1.1#326

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#18
First Shot+8.0#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#177
Layups/Dunks+2.9#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#1
Freethrows-3.0#348
Improvement-1.7#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 4.2% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 13.9% 14.8% 2.9%
Top 4 Seed 60.7% 62.8% 35.0%
Top 6 Seed 92.7% 93.7% 80.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.6% 98.5%
Average Seed 4.2 4.1 5.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.0% 87.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 1.1%
First Round99.6% 99.7% 98.3%
Second Round86.8% 87.3% 80.8%
Sweet Sixteen57.5% 58.3% 48.6%
Elite Eight32.5% 33.1% 26.2%
Final Four18.2% 18.5% 14.4%
Championship Game9.9% 10.1% 7.5%
National Champion5.2% 5.3% 3.8%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 26 - 5
Quad 26 - 111 - 7
Quad 35 - 116 - 8
Quad 47 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 340   Stonehill W 85-54 99%     1 - 0 +17.2 +0.9 +14.3
  Nov 11, 2022 276   Boston University W 86-57 98%     2 - 0 +20.4 +9.9 +10.6
  Nov 15, 2022 183   Buffalo W 84-64 96%     3 - 0 +16.7 +1.6 +13.2
  Nov 18, 2022 152   UNC Wilmington W 86-50 95%     4 - 0 +34.0 +19.4 +16.9
  Nov 20, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 95-60 99.5%    5 - 0 +17.7 +8.2 +7.5
  Nov 24, 2022 48   Oregon W 83-59 76%     6 - 0 +34.0 +15.9 +18.6
  Nov 25, 2022 2   Alabama W 82-67 43%     7 - 0 +34.0 +15.4 +17.9
  Nov 27, 2022 22   Iowa St. W 71-53 63%     8 - 0 +31.8 +14.6 +19.1
  Dec 01, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 74-64 78%     9 - 0 +19.2 +12.7 +6.9
  Dec 07, 2022 40   @ Florida W 75-54 62%     10 - 0 +35.0 +13.4 +21.6
  Dec 10, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 114-61 99.7%    11 - 0 +32.0 +20.0 +6.0
  Dec 17, 2022 86   @ Butler W 68-46 80%     12 - 0 1 - 0 +30.5 +4.4 +27.3
  Dec 20, 2022 186   Georgetown W 84-73 96%     13 - 0 2 - 0 +7.4 +7.0 +0.2
  Dec 28, 2022 62   Villanova W 74-66 86%     14 - 0 3 - 0 +13.7 +3.1 +10.7
  Dec 31, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 73-83 52%     14 - 1 3 - 1 +6.6 +1.0 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2023 25   @ Providence L 61-73 56%     14 - 2 3 - 2 +3.7 +3.8 -2.0
  Jan 07, 2023 11   Creighton W 69-60 67%     15 - 2 4 - 2 +21.7 +7.4 +14.9
  Jan 11, 2023 8   @ Marquette L 76-82 44%     15 - 3 4 - 3 +12.7 +10.3 +2.3
  Jan 15, 2023 72   St. John's L 74-85 87%     15 - 4 4 - 4 -6.2 -2.7 -2.5
  Jan 18, 2023 41   @ Seton Hall L 66-67 64%     15 - 5 4 - 5 +12.5 +5.6 +6.8
  Jan 22, 2023 86   Butler W 86-56 90%     16 - 5 5 - 5 +33.0 +21.0 +13.7
  Jan 25, 2023 19   Xavier L 79-82 72%     16 - 6 5 - 6 +8.1 +8.0 +0.1
  Jan 31, 2023 124   @ DePaul W 90-76 87%     17 - 6 6 - 6 +19.3 +19.4 +0.0
  Feb 04, 2023 186   @ Georgetown W 81-66 92%    
  Feb 07, 2023 8   Marquette W 79-75 66%    
  Feb 11, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 41   Seton Hall W 72-63 81%    
  Feb 22, 2023 25   Providence W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 25, 2023 72   @ St. John's W 81-74 73%    
  Mar 01, 2023 124   DePaul W 83-66 95%    
  Mar 04, 2023 62   @ Villanova W 71-65 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.5 4.7 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 5.4 13.4 2.8 22.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 10.6 22.0 9.3 0.2 43.8 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 6.8 9.8 4.0 0.1 22.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.4 8.6 20.9 31.6 26.6 9.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 9.6% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.8 3.2 4.8 1.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 26.6% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 3.1 0.7 4.8 13.1 7.1 1.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 31.6% 99.9% 25.3% 74.7% 4.2 0.0 0.5 6.9 13.4 8.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 20.9% 99.9% 22.1% 77.8% 5.2 0.0 0.7 3.8 8.5 6.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 8.6% 99.2% 19.5% 79.7% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-11 2.4% 94.7% 18.1% 76.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 93.5%
8-12 0.4% 74.7% 12.9% 61.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 71.0%
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 25.0% 74.7% 4.2 3.9 10.0 22.2 24.6 20.0 11.9 3.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.6% 100.0% 1.8 33.1 49.9 16.0 1.0