Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#11
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#95
Pace62.8#332
Improvement-1.5#275

Offense
Total Offense+11.9#4
First Shot+11.9#1
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks+7.4#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#31
Freethrows+2.2#68
Improvement+0.2#165

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#83
First Shot+3.0#91
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#139
Layups/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#50
Freethrows-2.2#303
Improvement-1.7#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.2% 4.8% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 8.4% 12.1% 4.8%
Top 4 Seed 24.5% 32.5% 16.7%
Top 6 Seed 44.0% 54.6% 33.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.1% 90.8% 77.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.7% 87.1% 71.1%
Average Seed 6.2 5.7 6.8
.500 or above 96.6% 98.6% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 96.3% 93.3%
Conference Champion 35.4% 39.7% 31.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four3.7% 2.5% 4.9%
First Round82.5% 89.8% 75.5%
Second Round60.1% 68.3% 52.0%
Sweet Sixteen30.9% 36.6% 25.3%
Elite Eight15.2% 18.5% 11.9%
Final Four7.2% 9.2% 5.2%
Championship Game3.3% 4.2% 2.3%
National Champion1.4% 1.9% 0.9%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 7
Quad 27 - 313 - 10
Quad 34 - 117 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 269   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +27.0 +10.6 +15.0
  Nov 09, 2024 350   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.4 +14.8 +8.7
  Nov 13, 2024 334   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +28.0 +22.2 +10.7
  Nov 19, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +18.7 -1.6 +19.3
  Nov 25, 2024 32   Memphis L 97-99 OT 60%     4 - 1 +10.9 +23.0 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2024 85   Colorado L 72-73 81%     4 - 2 +5.3 +13.2 -8.1
  Nov 27, 2024 46   Dayton L 67-85 68%     4 - 3 -7.4 +2.2 -11.1
  Nov 30, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99%     5 - 3 +36.8 +19.5 +18.1
  Dec 04, 2024 13   Baylor W 76-72 62%     6 - 3 +16.4 +18.1 -1.1
  Dec 08, 2024 34   @ Texas L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 14, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 74-80 30%    
  Dec 18, 2024 68   Xavier W 80-70 83%    
  Dec 21, 2024 54   @ Butler W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 01, 2025 97   @ DePaul W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 05, 2025 79   Providence W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 08, 2025 56   @ Villanova W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 98   @ Georgetown W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 40   Creighton W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 21, 2025 54   Butler W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 68   @ Xavier W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 97   DePaul W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 01, 2025 12   @ Marquette L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 07, 2025 20   St. John's W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 11, 2025 40   @ Creighton W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 67-57 80%    
  Feb 18, 2025 56   Villanova W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 23, 2025 20   @ St. John's L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 98   Georgetown W 80-67 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 79   @ Providence W 71-66 68%    
  Mar 04, 2025 12   Marquette W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 70-54 91%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.2 9.0 8.7 5.5 2.5 0.7 35.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.7 7.5 7.2 3.9 1.0 0.1 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.0 4.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.7 6.7 10.2 12.6 14.5 14.6 13.0 9.7 5.6 2.5 0.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.0
18-2 97.9% 5.5    5.2 0.3
17-3 89.5% 8.7    7.1 1.5 0.0
16-4 68.8% 9.0    6.1 2.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 42.2% 6.2    2.9 2.5 0.7 0.1
14-6 16.8% 2.4    0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.4% 35.4 25.1 8.1 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.6% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 2.7 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.7% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 3.6 0.6 1.5 2.6 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.0% 99.8% 33.1% 66.7% 4.8 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 14.6% 99.0% 27.9% 71.1% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-6 14.5% 95.6% 24.1% 71.5% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 94.2%
13-7 12.6% 88.5% 18.4% 70.1% 8.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 1.5 85.9%
12-8 10.2% 74.0% 15.3% 58.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.1 2.6 69.3%
11-9 6.7% 56.0% 14.2% 41.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.1 3.0 48.8%
10-10 4.7% 32.1% 9.0% 23.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 3.2 25.4%
9-11 2.7% 11.0% 5.5% 5.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 5.8%
8-12 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.7% 5.5% 5.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 84.1% 25.4% 58.7% 6.2 3.2 5.2 7.1 9.0 9.7 9.7 10.6 10.4 8.1 6.4 4.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9 78.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 23.8 4.8