Connecticut
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#13
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#19
Pace70.7#140
Improvement-1.5#295

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#22
First Shot+4.3#55
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#34
Layup/Dunks+6.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#207
Freethrows+1.5#88
Improvement-0.1#197

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#19
First Shot+7.2#19
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#147
Layups/Dunks+2.3#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#40
Freethrows-2.3#298
Improvement-1.4#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.9% 6.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 17.7% 17.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 42.9% 42.9% 12.5%
Top 6 Seed 64.9% 64.9% 37.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.1% 93.1% 87.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.8% 90.8% 83.3%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 7.0
.500 or above 99.6% 99.6% 87.5%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 95.2% 87.5%
Conference Champion 31.8% 31.8% 25.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
First Round92.2% 92.2% 87.5%
Second Round69.0% 69.0% 62.5%
Sweet Sixteen37.3% 37.3% 25.0%
Elite Eight18.3% 18.3% 12.5%
Final Four9.0% 9.0% 0.0%
Championship Game4.1% 4.1% 0.0%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 6
Quad 27 - 214 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 8
Quad 47 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 348   Central Connecticut St. W 99-48 99%     1 - 0 +33.8 +12.8 +19.0
  Nov 13, 2021 309   Coppin St. W 89-54 98%     2 - 0 +23.9 +5.2 +15.6
  Nov 17, 2021 275   LIU Brooklyn W 93-40 98%     3 - 0 +43.8 +8.9 +30.5
  Nov 20, 2021 319   Binghamton W 87-63 99%     4 - 0 +11.8 +9.7 +2.7
  Nov 24, 2021 20   Auburn W 115-109 2OT 54%     5 - 0 +20.1 +16.9 +1.5
  Nov 25, 2021 21   Michigan St. L 60-64 54%     5 - 1 +10.0 -3.3 +13.2
  Nov 26, 2021 79   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-63 OT 79%     6 - 1 +13.6 +3.0 +10.1
  Nov 30, 2021 351   Maryland Eastern Shore W 85-51 99.9%   
  Dec 04, 2021 332   Grambling St. W 86-57 99.7%   
  Dec 08, 2021 46   @ West Virginia W 72-70 58%    
  Dec 11, 2021 38   St. Bonaventure W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 18, 2021 55   Providence W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 21, 2021 69   @ Marquette W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 28, 2021 40   @ Xavier W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 01, 2022 104   Butler W 72-58 90%    
  Jan 08, 2022 27   @ Seton Hall L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 12, 2022 62   St. John's W 83-73 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 55   @ Providence W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 20, 2022 104   @ Butler W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 25, 2022 139   Georgetown W 80-64 92%    
  Jan 29, 2022 100   @ DePaul W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 01, 2022 87   Creighton W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 05, 2022 8   @ Villanova L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 08, 2022 69   Marquette W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 13, 2022 62   @ St. John's W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 16, 2022 27   Seton Hall W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 19, 2022 40   Xavier W 74-67 74%    
  Feb 22, 2022 8   Villanova W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 27, 2022 139   @ Georgetown W 77-67 80%    
  Mar 02, 2022 87   @ Creighton W 75-69 70%    
  Mar 05, 2022 100   DePaul W 81-68 87%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.2 7.5 8.3 6.3 3.1 0.7 31.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.8 6.8 8.6 5.9 2.1 0.3 27.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.9 5.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.5 1.2 0.2 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.6 9.5 11.8 14.0 14.7 13.7 10.4 6.5 3.1 0.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 3.1    3.0 0.1
18-2 95.7% 6.3    5.5 0.7
17-3 79.9% 8.3    6.2 2.0 0.1
16-4 54.8% 7.5    4.3 2.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 28.6% 4.2    1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0
14-6 10.8% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 22.0 8.3 1.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 1.3 0.5 0.2 100.0%
19-1 3.1% 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.5% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 1.9 2.4 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.4% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 2.6 1.6 3.7 3.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.7% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 3.5 0.5 2.4 4.6 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.7% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 4.5 0.1 0.7 3.0 3.9 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.0% 99.2% 20.7% 78.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 3.5 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-7 11.8% 98.4% 16.4% 82.0% 6.8 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 2.9 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
12-8 9.5% 93.8% 12.7% 81.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 92.9%
11-9 6.6% 83.8% 11.9% 72.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 1.1 81.7%
10-10 4.2% 69.0% 8.6% 60.4% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 66.1%
9-11 2.5% 39.4% 6.8% 32.5% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 34.9%
8-12 1.3% 12.9% 4.5% 8.3% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 8.7%
7-13 0.6% 6.6% 6.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.6%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.1% 24.7% 68.4% 5.1 6.9 10.8 12.9 12.3 12.0 10.0 8.9 6.7 5.3 3.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 6.9 90.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 76.0 24.0