Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.4 66
Expected Predictive Rating +8.1 75
Pace 67.7 209
Improvement -4.1 329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 55 B C- B D+ C
Defense C+ 108 B- C+ C- A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 330 A 68% 12 -0.1 181
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 322 B- 41% 83 -1.2 250
Three Pointers 51% 19 C+ 35% 123 +6.3 21
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 B+ +4.8 47
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 48
Second Chance C- 29.2% 217 C 1.02 187 C- 0.30 209
Turnovers B 14.5% 45
Freethrows D 0.26 311 B- 75% 112 D+ 0.20 276
Total Offense B +6.2 55

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 54 C+ 9.9% 112
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 203 B- 3.7% 85
Three Pointers C- 81% 246 D+ 1.3% 289
Total B 61% 65 B 4.5% 63

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 163 B- 55% 103 -0.8 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 23 B 35% 73 +1.9 322
Three Pointers 33% 357 C 34% 170 -4.2 29
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 50 B- -2.2 89
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 77
Second Chance B- 28.4% 97 C 1.04 202 C+ 0.29 130
Turnovers C- 15.8% 238
Freethrows A 0.21 5 B 70% 52 A 0.15 6
Total Defense C+ +2.2 108

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 45 D 7.8% 310
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 121 C 5.1% 160
Three Pointers B 80% 246 C+ 1.2% 289
Total B+ 47% 25 C- 4.8% 237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 167 18.0 288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 41 0.10 19
Improvement -0.6 #224 -3.5 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 6% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 4% 0%
Average Seed 11.3 10.8 11.5
.500 or above 32% 72% 29%
.500 or above in Conference 28% 70% 24%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 3% 0%
First Round2% 4% 1%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 7.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 42 - 10
Quad 23 - 55 - 15
Quad 36 - 211 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 280 South Dakota W 92 - 76 95% +12  88% 1 - 0 B- +6 B +7 F+ A+ D+ C- -2 C B C+
 Tue, Nov 11 11 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 10% -11  1% 1 - 1 C- -5 D -4 C+ F+ F+ C+ +0 D- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  99% 2 - 1 A+ +23 A- +10 B+ B+ B- A+ +16 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 300 North Dakota W 75 - 60 95% +9  87% 3 - 1 C+ +4 C- -2 F A+ B+ A- +7 B- B+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 48 Baylor L 74 - 81 39% -5  0% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B- +5 A- D+ D C -0 A+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 7 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 11% -10  0% 3 - 3 C+ +4 C- -2 A- F D B+ +5 A+ F D
 Thu, Nov 27 88 Oregon W 76 - 66 59% +6  86% 4 - 3 A- +16 B +7 C F A+ A +10 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 2 264 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 94% +15  97% 5 - 3 B+ +11 A+ +18 A+ C B+ D -6 F+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 14 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 11% -14  0% 5 - 4 C +1 D- -8 F+ C B- B+ +6 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 89 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 70% -8  2% 5 - 5 C- -4 B +6 C+ D- A+ F -10 B D F
 Wed, Dec 17 82 @Xavier W 98 - 57 44% +21  94% 6 - 5 1 - 0 A+ +51 A+ +22 A+ C- B- A+ +27 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 87 Marquette W 84 - 63 69% +14  77% 7 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +24 C+ +3 B D+ A A+ +20 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 189 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 89% +11  99% 8 - 5 A +18 A- +11 A+ F C+ B+ +7 C D+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 78 Butler W 89 - 85 66% +7  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 B +8 A +12 A- A+ C+ D+ -3 B+ C C-
 Sun, Jan 4 51 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 30% +5  86% 9 - 6 3 - 1 B+ +12 D+ -4 D- C- A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 31 @Villanova W 76 - 72 19% -2  25% 10 - 6 4 - 1 A +22 A+ +17 A B+ A+ B +5 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 20 St. John's L 73 - 90 27% -13  13% 10 - 7 4 - 2 C- -2 B+ +9 A+ F A+ F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 69 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 63% -1  33% 11 - 7 5 - 2 B +8 A+ +20 A+ C- A+ F -12 F F D+
 Fri, Jan 16 61 @Providence L 88 - 93 37% -1  43% 11 - 8 5 - 3 B- +7 B +7 D+ A- B- C+ +0 A F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 82 Xavier W 94 - 93 67% +1  62% 12 - 8 6 - 3 B- +5 A+ +16 A+ D- A F -11 F C C
 Tue, Jan 27 87 @Marquette L 62 - 86 47% -17  6% 12 - 9 6 - 4 F+ -15 D- -8 C F C D- -7 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 9 Connecticut L 58 - 85 20% -11  3% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D -10 C +2 B- C+ B+ F -16 C+ F D
 Wed, Feb 4 69 @Georgetown L 68 - 76 40% -4  33% 12 - 11 6 - 6 C+ +3 D -6 B- F+ F A +9 A A B
 Sat, Feb 7 51 Seton Hall W 69 - 68 53% -2  28% 13 - 11 7 - 6 B +9 B +6 B+ A+ D- B- +3 D D+ A
 Wed, Feb 11 97 @DePaul L 71 - 72 51% -0  41% 13 - 12 7 - 7 B- +7 A +11 A B+ B+ D+ -4 C- F B
 Sat, Feb 14 31 Villanova L 69 - 80 37% -9  0% 13 - 13 7 - 8 C +1 C- -1 C+ F+ A- C+ +1 A C F+
 Wed, Feb 18 9 @Connecticut L 65 - 80 8%
 Sat, Feb 21 20 @St. John's L 72 - 84 12%
 Wed, Feb 25 97 DePaul W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 61 Providence W 86 - 83 59%
 Wed, Mar 4 78 @Butler L 77 - 79 43%
Totals 15 - 16 9 - 11 +8 B +6 A- B+ C C+ +2 C+ B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B A B- C+ B+ 32% 24% 51% C B C- C C- B D B- D+ C+ B- B C B- 39% 28% 33% B B- B- C C+ C- A B A
1.18 68% 41% 35% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.0 .30 14% .26 75% .20 1.06 55% 35% 34% -2 -1 0.96 28% 1.0 .29 16% .21 70% .18
Nov
5		 South Dakota B B- D F F+ 48% 20% 32% D F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D- C- C A+ C C+ 54% 20% 25% D C F A+ B C+ A+ A+ A+
1.26 63% 36% 22% -4 +1 0.96 54% 1.5 .83 18% .18 91% .17 1.04 56% 25% 33% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.5 .22 18% .23 64% .15
Nov
11		 Gonzaga D A+ D+ D B- 13% 33% 53% F+ C+ C F F+ F+ A+ D- A+ C+ F F C+ F 28% 33% 39% A D- B+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
0.86 83% 33% 29% -2 -3 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 25% .56 65% .36 1.23 82% 60% 33% +14 -2 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 11% .20 54% .11
Nov
14		 Maryland Eastern Shore A- A+ D+ D B+ 38% 12% 50% B- B+ A+ D- B+ B- F C- F A+ B F A+ B 27% 39% 34% A+ B+ A+ A A+ A A F A-
1.30 80% 33% 31% +6 +1 1.15 46% 1.0 .46 14% .20 73% .14 0.70 50% 53% 13% -7 -3 0.82 19% 0.7 .13 28% .13 83% .11
Nov
19		 North Dakota C- A+ F F F 27% 9% 64% D+ F A+ B+ A+ B+ A F C+ A- B A+ C B 47% 20% 33% C+ B- B+ B+ B+ D A+ D A+
1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28 0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14
Nov
24		 Baylor B- D+ B- A B- 38% 13% 48% A+ A- D+ D+ D+ D F A+ D C A+ A- C- A+ 42% 33% 25% D+ A+ F D F C B+ C- B
1.09 55% 43% 40% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.9 .23 19% .18 90% .16 1.20 39% 33% 36% -9 -1 0.82 52% 1.2 .64 15% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Iowa St. C- F A+ A- B+ 32% 16% 52% B+ A- B- F F D D+ F D- B+ B A- A- A+ 52% 24% 24% C A+ B- F F D A B- A
0.88 44% 50% 38% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.4 .11 25% .22 55% .12 1.15 57% 31% 31% -3 +1 0.96 36% 1.5 .53 12% .23 64% .15
Nov
27		 Oregon B B F D+ C- 46% 24% 30% B+ C F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A C C+ A+ A+ 43% 32% 25% A A+ C- A B D- A+ A+ A+
1.12 60% 31% 31% -2 0 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 7% .34 90% .30 0.98 58% 39% 7% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .35 13% .19 64% .12
Dec
2		 Nicholls St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 13% 60% C- A+ F A+ C B+ F A+ F D F A+ F F 45% 25% 30% C+ F+ A A+ A+ F B- D C+
1.40 80% 57% 48% +22 0 1.45 26% 1.5 .39 18% .12 100% .12 1.11 72% 0% 53% +5 0 1.13 17% 0.3 .06 9% .26 69% .18
Dec
7		 Nebraska D- A+ F F F+ 11% 24% 64% C- F+ C- C+ C B- A+ F B+ B+ F A+ C- B+ 25% 25% 49% A+ A- B B+ B+ C- F A+ D
0.78 80% 18% 24% -12 -2 0.73 23% 0.9 .20 19% .33 59% .19 1.11 77% 23% 36% +3 -2 1.04 24% 1.0 .24 13% .36 65% .23
Dec
13		 Kansas St. B C F A B- 30% 19% 52% C- C+ D+ F+ D- A+ D A+ B- F A- A+ F B+ 43% 15% 43% C- B D- C+ D F C+ F D+
1.14 56% 10% 39% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 11% .25 93% .23 1.25 52% 13% 43% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .41 11% .25 87% .22
Dec
17		 Xavier A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 52% B+ A+ D+ C- C- B- F F F A+ A C- A+ A+ 24% 34% 41% A A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.33 77% 57% 48% +20 +1 1.45 24% 0.8 .20 16% .16 60% .10 0.77 50% 40% 25% -7 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .13 19% .10 50% .05
Dec
20		 Marquette C+ D B+ A B+ 34% 21% 45% C- B F A+ D+ A B B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ 54% 9% 37% C- A+ A+ B A+ C+ C A+ B+
1.09 53% 42% 40% +3 0 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 16% .31 80% .25 0.82 39% 0% 33% -14 +3 0.79 19% 0.9 .17 16% .31 55% .17
Dec
22		 Utah Tech A- A+ D A+ A+ 43% 5% 52% B+ A+ D+ F F C+ D- C+ D B+ C- B C+ C+ 49% 17% 34% D C A+ F D+ A A A A
1.28 75% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 28% 0.4 .13 15% .25 73% .18 0.96 62% 33% 33% +1 +1 1.06 17% 1.8 .30 21% .14 63% .09
Dec
30		 Butler A B- B- B+ A- 38% 9% 53% A- A- B A+ A+ C+ B- A+ A D+ B- A+ C- B+ 45% 17% 38% C+ B+ F A+ C C- B+ F C+
1.23 62% 40% 38% +5 +1 1.15 32% 1.3 .42 17% .25 93% .23 1.17 56% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.9 .39 14% .30 79% .24
Jan
4		 Seton Hall D+ B+ D- F D- 33% 22% 46% D+ D- C D C- A+ D F F+ A+ A A C A+ 42% 46% 13% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- C F D-
0.85 60% 30% 19% -11 -1 0.78 28% 0.8 .23 17% .31 63% .19 0.88 45% 27% 33% -10 -3 0.75 17% 0.7 .11 13% .34 84% .29
Jan
7		 Villanova A+ B+ A+ D A+ 28% 32% 40% D- A A+ D B+ A+ B+ C B+ B B F A+ A 36% 31% 34% A A B+ B B+ F A+ C- A
1.21 64% 69% 30% +9 -2 1.16 42% 0.8 .35 13% .29 69% .20 1.14 57% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.97 32% 0.9 .29 10% .19 73% .14
Jan
10		 St. John's B+ A+ B- A- A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ F C- C- F F 28% 33% 39% A+ F B+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+
1.09 69% 40% 38% +7 -1 1.14 7% 0.0 .00 13% .34 85% .29 1.34 60% 39% 57% +14 -2 1.26 33% 0.8 .28 9% .29 67% .20
Jan
13		 Georgetown A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 22% 53% C A+ D- B+ C- A+ F A+ F+ F F C F F 37% 35% 29% A F C- F F D+ A B A+
1.33 79% 50% 45% +16 -1 1.33 23% 1.1 .27 9% .19 82% .15 1.29 74% 39% 47% +12 -2 1.21 35% 1.9 .65 12% .25 71% .18
Jan
16		 Providence B B F C- D 35% 18% 47% B- D+ B+ B+ A- B- A+ A+ A+ C+ C F A+ A+ 48% 14% 38% D+ A F D F D+ F A- F
1.15 60% 10% 33% -5 0 0.93 34% 1.1 .39 13% .44 83% .36 1.22 63% 50% 19% -4 +2 0.96 45% 1.3 .57 13% .53 71% .38
Jan
21		 Xavier A+ B+ F A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% A- A+ D- F D- A A+ C+ A F F F+ F F 31% 32% 37% B+ F A F C C A+ F A
1.29 67% 25% 54% +15 +1 1.34 20% 0.7 .13 12% .38 71% .27 1.28 83% 47% 45% +17 -2 1.32 21% 1.3 .28 12% .13 88% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Marquette D- A+ A+ F C+ 24% 24% 53% D- C D F F C F C F D- F A+ D- F 53% 9% 38% C F A+ F B- F C A+ A-
0.90 85% 54% 21% 0 -1 0.98 26% 0.5 .13 20% .07 75% .05 1.25 76% 0% 38% +8 +3 1.24 20% 1.3 .27 9% .30 53% .16
Jan
31		 Connecticut C B A+ F B- 34% 20% 46% C B- D- A+ C+ B+ A+ C A+ F A+ F F C- 27% 22% 51% A+ C+ D- F F D A+ A+ A+
0.98 57% 50% 21% -7 0 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 17% .49 71% .34 1.43 43% 55% 46% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.8 .74 13% .14 43% .06
Feb
4		 Georgetown D A+ A+ F B 25% 23% 52% C- B- D+ F F+ F F F F A A+ C- F A 40% 21% 40% C- A D A+ A B F B- F
0.92 71% 62% 24% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.7 .18 22% .17 60% .10 1.03 26% 40% 42% -7 0 0.88 38% 0.6 .24 16% .53 73% .39
Feb
7		 Seton Hall B D B B+ A- 29% 11% 60% C+ B+ C+ A+ A+ D- F A+ D- B- D- B F F 43% 40% 17% A+ D A- F D+ A A- A A
1.03 46% 40% 37% 0 +1 1.02 30% 1.4 .43 27% .25 83% .21 1.02 65% 32% 50% +4 -2 1.06 30% 1.3 .40 21% .27 64% .17
Feb
11		 DePaul A F A+ A+ A+ 18% 32% 50% F A F A+ B+ B+ D+ B- C- D+ F C+ A+ C 49% 19% 33% D- C- F+ F F B C C+ C
1.15 25% 50% 50% +10 -3 1.16 20% 1.8 .36 16% .29 73% .21 1.16 71% 38% 21% 0 +1 1.05 37% 2.0 .74 19% .32 69% .22
Feb
14		 Villanova C- A+ F D- B- 31% 25% 44% C- C+ C+ F F+ A- D+ F D C+ C+ C+ A- A 37% 26% 37% A- A A- F C F+ C D+ C-
0.99 76% 29% 29% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.5 .17 17% .21 58% .12 1.15 60% 36% 30% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.3 .38 10% .30 74% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 5.2 11.5 3.5 0.3 20.5 4th
5th 0.1 12.3 32.2 11.9 0.7 0.0 57.2 5th
6th 1.1 11.9 2.4 0.1 15.5 6th
7th 3.0 1.9 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 1.7 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 6.0 26.2 39.9 23.5 4.2 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.3% 29.6% 4.9% 24.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 26.0%
11-9 4.2% 10.3% 2.6% 7.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 3.7 8.0%
10-10 23.5% 3.2% 2.4% 0.8% 11.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 22.7 0.8%
9-11 39.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 39.4 0.0%
8-12 26.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 26.1
7-13 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 11.3 98.0 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 43.8% 10.6 15.6 28.1
Lose Out 3.0%