Creighton
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#40
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#71
Pace71.6#106
Improvement+0.6#148

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#48
First Shot+8.6#13
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#320
Layup/Dunks+4.4#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#15
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement-0.2#207

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#36
First Shot+7.6#13
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#293
Layups/Dunks+5.0#42
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#149
Freethrows+5.0#3
Improvement+0.8#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 6.6% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 16.7% 6.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.6% 60.6% 42.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.1% 56.3% 37.6%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.6
.500 or above 84.7% 87.6% 70.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 77.1% 66.5%
Conference Champion 10.4% 11.2% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 2.7%
First Four7.6% 7.5% 8.0%
First Round53.8% 56.9% 37.9%
Second Round30.4% 32.6% 19.3%
Sweet Sixteen11.2% 12.2% 6.1%
Elite Eight4.4% 4.8% 2.6%
Final Four1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 83.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 45 - 9
Quad 26 - 410 - 12
Quad 35 - 116 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 166   UT Rio Grande Valley W 99-86 92%     1 - 0 +9.4 +13.9 -5.6
  Nov 10, 2024 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 96-70 98%     2 - 0 +11.7 +3.4 +5.5
  Nov 13, 2024 351   Houston Christian W 78-43 99%     3 - 0 +19.4 -1.8 +22.4
  Nov 16, 2024 292   UMKC W 79-56 97%     4 - 0 +13.2 +2.9 +10.2
  Nov 22, 2024 44   Nebraska L 63-74 64%     4 - 1 -3.0 -6.3 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 37   San Diego St. L 53-71 48%     4 - 2 -5.9 -7.7 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 30   Texas A&M L 73-77 45%     4 - 3 +9.0 +6.0 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 80   Notre Dame W 80-76 68%     5 - 3 +10.9 +9.3 +1.6
  Dec 04, 2024 7   Kansas W 76-63 36%     6 - 3 +28.3 +10.8 +17.6
  Dec 07, 2024 104   UNLV W 76-66 83%    
  Dec 14, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 78-88 18%    
  Dec 18, 2024 98   @ Georgetown W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 21, 2024 56   Villanova W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 31, 2024 20   St. John's W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 03, 2025 12   @ Marquette L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 54   @ Butler L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 14, 2025 79   Providence W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 97   @ DePaul W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 68-56 85%    
  Jan 29, 2025 68   Xavier W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 56   @ Villanova L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 05, 2025 79   @ Providence W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   Marquette L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 11, 2025 11   Connecticut L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 16, 2025 20   @ St. John's L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 23, 2025 98   Georgetown W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 26, 2025 97   DePaul W 79-70 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   @ Xavier W 76-75 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 65-59 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   Butler W 77-72 67%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.5 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.0 6.0 3.4 0.8 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.8 5.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.6 4.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.8 9.1 11.8 13.2 13.2 12.4 9.9 7.1 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.9% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 89.2% 2.1    1.6 0.4 0.0
16-4 66.4% 2.8    1.7 1.0 0.1
15-5 37.4% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 13.7% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 5.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 2.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 3.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 99.9% 23.1% 76.7% 4.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 7.1% 99.1% 17.9% 81.3% 6.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-6 9.9% 95.9% 15.0% 80.9% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.4 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 95.2%
13-7 12.4% 89.7% 12.6% 77.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.8 2.7 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 1.3 88.3%
12-8 13.2% 77.1% 9.3% 67.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.7 2.9 1.8 0.0 3.0 74.8%
11-9 13.2% 55.3% 7.0% 48.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 2.7 0.2 5.9 52.0%
10-10 11.8% 30.6% 4.1% 26.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 0.3 8.2 27.6%
9-11 9.1% 9.3% 3.1% 6.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 8.2 6.5%
8-12 6.8% 2.6% 1.7% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.8%
7-13 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 57.6% 9.5% 48.1% 7.9 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.1 5.0 7.2 8.7 9.0 8.8 8.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.4 53.1%