Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#239
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#242
Pace63.1#318
Improvement-2.2#331

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#220
First Shot-2.0#235
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#151
Layup/Dunks-1.6#231
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#112
Freethrows+1.1#107
Improvement+0.9#88

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#249
First Shot-6.6#337
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#8
Layups/Dunks-3.3#276
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement-3.0#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.8% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 47.3% 59.7% 36.0%
.500 or above in Conference 52.3% 65.4% 40.5%
Conference Champion 4.3% 7.0% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 3.1% 12.1%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
First Round5.0% 6.4% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 413 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 54   @ Providence L 73-80 9%     0 - 1 +4.4 -1.2 +6.2
  Nov 14, 2021 125   @ Boston College L 64-72 19%     0 - 2 -2.3 -3.4 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2021 311   @ Sacred Heart W 71-61 56%     1 - 2 +4.7 +2.8 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2021 219   Stony Brook W 83-78 OT 56%     2 - 2 -0.5 +6.5 -7.0
  Nov 28, 2021 286   Loyola Maryland L 70-75 72%     2 - 3 -14.8 -0.3 -14.9
  Dec 03, 2021 280   @ Canisius L 70-71 47%    
  Dec 05, 2021 185   @ Niagara L 61-67 30%    
  Dec 08, 2021 342   Holy Cross W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 12, 2021 333   @ William & Mary W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 15, 2021 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-71 62%    
  Dec 19, 2021 117   @ Massachusetts L 71-81 18%    
  Dec 23, 2021 155   Wagner L 64-66 45%    
  Dec 31, 2021 250   Manhattan W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 02, 2022 106   Iona L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 07, 2022 252   Marist W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 09, 2022 306   @ Siena W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 16, 2022 296   @ Quinnipiac W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 20, 2022 132   Monmouth L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 23, 2022 252   @ Marist L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 28, 2022 264   @ Rider L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 04, 2022 132   @ Monmouth L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 06, 2022 306   Siena W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 09, 2022 296   Quinnipiac W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 185   Niagara W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 14, 2022 280   Canisius W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 18, 2022 200   St. Peter's W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 20, 2022 106   @ Iona L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 27, 2022 250   @ Manhattan L 63-65 43%    
  Mar 03, 2022 264   Rider W 68-63 66%    
  Mar 05, 2022 200   @ St. Peter's L 62-67 34%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.5 1.6 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 5.1 4.1 1.3 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.3 4.2 1.1 0.1 12.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.3 4.3 1.0 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 6.8 8.6 10.7 12.5 12.0 10.8 10.0 7.7 5.4 3.3 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 93.9% 0.3    0.3
17-3 82.7% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 63.8% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.1
15-5 35.0% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2
14-6 11.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.3% 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.3% 36.4% 36.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.0% 36.5% 36.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7
16-4 1.6% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
15-5 3.3% 19.8% 19.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.6
14-6 5.4% 13.4% 13.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.7
13-7 7.7% 11.0% 11.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 6.9
12-8 10.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 9.2
11-9 10.8% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.1 0.5 10.2
10-10 12.0% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.1 0.3 11.6
9-11 12.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 12.3
8-12 10.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.5
7-13 8.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.6
6-14 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
5-15 4.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 2.5 94.6 0.0%