Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#283
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#198
Pace66.3#255
Improvement+2.1#53

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#244
First Shot-2.6#253
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#195
Layup/Dunks-3.5#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#228
Freethrows-1.4#258
Improvement+3.5#9

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#292
First Shot-3.2#286
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#211
Layups/Dunks-3.7#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#114
Freethrows-2.0#295
Improvement-1.4#293
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.4% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 40.8% 56.4% 32.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 71.9% 47.3%
Conference Champion 7.3% 13.3% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 1.9% 7.5%
First Four2.1% 2.5% 2.0%
First Round4.4% 6.1% 3.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 413 - 915 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 91   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 8%     0 - 1 -29.1 -15.7 -10.5
  Nov 09, 2024 98   @ Georgetown L 57-69 9%     0 - 2 -3.6 -10.5 +6.6
  Nov 12, 2024 350   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 62%     1 - 2 -3.6 -8.5 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 167   Drexel L 61-67 39%     1 - 3 -9.6 -8.4 -1.8
  Nov 23, 2024 107   Yale L 66-91 16%     1 - 4 -21.0 +2.4 -27.3
  Nov 24, 2024 183   Vermont W 67-66 30%     2 - 4 -0.1 +3.8 -3.8
  Dec 01, 2024 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 77%     3 - 4 -10.3 -3.8 -6.5
  Dec 04, 2024 257   Rider W 78-75 57%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -5.3 +5.8 -10.9
  Dec 08, 2024 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 67-71 34%    
  Dec 18, 2024 240   Central Connecticut St. W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 21, 2024 287   @ Monmouth L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 28, 2024 192   @ Columbia L 71-79 22%    
  Jan 03, 2025 222   @ Merrimack L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 10, 2025 274   Iona W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 12, 2025 242   @ Marist L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 16, 2025 308   Niagara W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 18, 2025 345   Canisius W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 313   @ Manhattan L 73-74 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 222   Merrimack L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 31, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 02, 2025 274   @ Iona L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 06, 2025 242   Marist W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 269   Sacred Heart W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 14, 2025 209   @ St. Peter's L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 16, 2025 313   Manhattan W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 21, 2025 257   @ Rider L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 28, 2025 254   Mount St. Mary's W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 02, 2025 269   @ Sacred Heart L 72-75 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 302   @ Siena L 66-68 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 8.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 4.8 1.8 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.6 3.2 0.3 8.9 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 4.4 0.8 0.0 8.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 4.8 1.5 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.1 2.7 0.2 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.1 0.9 0.0 7.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.4 0.9 0.0 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.6 10.9 12.3 12.9 12.4 10.5 8.2 5.4 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 96.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-4 88.4% 1.6    1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 63.7% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 32.2% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 40.5% 40.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 29.9% 29.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.8% 24.2% 24.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 1.8% 20.8% 20.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.4
15-5 3.4% 19.4% 19.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.7
14-6 5.4% 14.8% 14.8% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 4.6
13-7 8.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 7.3
12-8 10.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 9.6
11-9 12.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.6 11.7
10-10 12.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 12.5
9-11 12.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.1
8-12 10.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.8
7-13 8.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.6
6-14 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 3.6% 3.6
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.9 94.4 0.0%