IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.5	#300
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.2	#319

Pace	65.4	#264
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.5	#298

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.5%	4.4%	2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.3	15.2	15.4

.500 or above	38.4%	48.8%	23.7%
.500 or above in Conference	41.9%	48.8%	32.2%
Conference Champion	3.3%	4.4%	1.7%
Last Place in Conference	10.0%	7.3%	13.9%

First Four	1.3%	1.4%	1.0%
First Round	3.3%	4.3%	1.9%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Away) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 4	13 - 10	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	99	@ Penn St.	L	68-76	8%	0 - 1			-0.2	+0.4	-0.8
Nov 08, 2025	355	@ NJIT	W	68-66	59%
Nov 10, 2025	100	@ Seton Hall	L	58-73	8%
Nov 14, 2025	334	Stonehill	W	70-64	70%
Nov 16, 2025	309	Loyola Maryland	W	69-66	62%
Nov 22, 2025	350	@ Le Moyne	W	73-71	56%
Nov 26, 2025	255	Columbia	W	75-74	52%
Nov 30, 2025	358	New Hampshire	W	73-64	79%
Dec 05, 2025	239	@ Manhattan	L	69-75	29%
Dec 07, 2025	261	@ Merrimack	L	61-66	33%
Dec 14, 2025	204	Monmouth	L	68-70	43%
Dec 18, 2025	310	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	64-66	42%
Dec 29, 2025	302	St. Peter's	W	65-62	61%
Jan 02, 2026	351	@ Canisius	W	69-67	57%
Jan 04, 2026	336	@ Niagara	L	66-67	50%
Jan 09, 2026	314	Rider	W	69-65	64%
Jan 14, 2026	239	Manhattan	L	71-72	49%
Jan 17, 2026	188	@ Marist	L	58-67	23%
Jan 19, 2026	185	@ Siena	L	64-73	23%
Jan 22, 2026	336	Niagara	W	70-64	69%
Jan 24, 2026	351	Canisius	W	72-64	75%
Jan 30, 2026	213	@ Iona	L	66-74	26%
Feb 01, 2026	220	Quinnipiac	L	73-74	47%
Feb 05, 2026	235	@ Sacred Heart	L	71-77	30%
Feb 07, 2026	188	Marist	L	61-64	41%
Feb 15, 2026	302	@ St. Peter's	L	62-65	40%
Feb 20, 2026	235	Sacred Heart	L	73-74	49%
Feb 22, 2026	220	@ Quinnipiac	L	70-77	28%
Feb 27, 2026	185	Siena	L	67-70	41%
Mar 01, 2026	253	Mount St. Mary's	W	69-68	52%
Projected Record						14 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0				4.5	2nd
3rd												0.2	1.2	2.4	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0					5.9	3rd
4th											0.1	1.3	3.0	1.9	0.4	0.0							6.7	4th
5th										0.1	1.1	3.5	2.4	0.5	0.1								7.7	5th
6th									0.1	1.0	3.7	3.0	0.7	0.0									8.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	0.9	3.6	3.9	1.0	0.1										9.5	7th
8th							0.0	0.8	3.1	4.3	1.4	0.1											9.6	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.8	3.0	4.6	1.9	0.1												10.4	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.7	2.9	4.1	2.1	0.3	0.0												10.1	10th
11th				0.1	0.9	2.5	3.7	1.9	0.3	0.0													9.5	11th
12th		0.0	0.3	1.0	2.3	2.8	1.4	0.3															8.1	12th
13th	0.1	0.6	1.5	1.8	1.5	0.7	0.2	0.0															6.4	13th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.8	2.9	4.7	6.7	9.0	10.2	11.0	11.1	10.3	9.1	7.6	5.7	3.9	2.6	1.6	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	98.1%	0.3		0.3	0.0
17-3	81.0%	0.6		0.5	0.1	0.0
16-4	58.6%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.1
15-5	33.5%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
14-6	9.4%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.8%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0						0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.3%	3.3		1.8	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																	0.0		0.0				0.0
19-1	0.1%																			0.0	0.0			0.1
18-2	0.3%		37.0%	37.0%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
17-3	0.8%		29.4%	29.4%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5
16-4	1.6%		26.3%	26.3%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	1.2
15-5	2.6%		17.9%	17.9%		17.5														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	2.1
14-6	3.9%		10.7%	10.7%		18.5														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	3.5
13-7	5.7%		8.6%	8.6%		18.0														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	5.2
12-8	7.6%		7.2%	7.2%		17.9															0.0	0.2	0.5	7.0
11-9	9.1%		4.6%	4.6%		19.4															0.0	0.1	0.4	8.7
10-10	10.3%		1.7%	1.7%		18.2																0.0	0.2	10.1
9-11	11.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.7																	0.1	11.0
8-12	11.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.9
7-13	10.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
6-14	9.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
5-15	6.7%																							6.7
4-16	4.7%																							4.7
3-17	2.9%																							2.9
2-18	1.8%																							1.8
1-19	0.6%																							0.6
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.5%	3.5%	0.0%	17.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.0	96.5		0.0%