Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.8 266
Expected Predictive Rating -3.8 227
Pace 67.5 215
Improvement +0.9 156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 213 D+ C B- D- C-
Defense D 302 D+ C- D+ C F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 179 D- 51% 337 -2.8 282
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 139 C+ 39% 140 +1.1 116
Three Pointers 39% 224 C- 33% 215 -1.5 237
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 224 D+ -3.0 289
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 283
Second Chance B- 32.9% 106 D 0.92 318 C 0.30 193
Turnovers B- 15.6% 103
Freethrows D- 0.25 337 D+ 69% 281 D- 0.17 342
Total Offense C- -1.5 213

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 272 F+ 15.1% 346
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 284 C+ 4.7% 161
Three Pointers F+ 73% 349 F+ 1.9% 347
Total D- 47% 328 F+ 7.6% 340

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 6 C 58% 193 +5.4 343
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 334 C+ 37% 147 -2.2 26
Three Pointers 37% 281 D 37% 307 -0.2 170
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 360 C- +1.6 250
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 277
Second Chance C- 31.1% 211 C- 1.05 228 C- 0.33 227
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 264
Freethrows C+ 0.29 156 D 75% 307 C 0.22 179
Total Defense D -4.3 302

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 111 C- 10.1% 202
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 339 C- 3.8% 241
Three Pointers D- 90% 344 D 0.1% 338
Total C- 57% 218 C 5.4% 192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 171 17.4 202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 237 0.17 164
Improvement +1.1 #128 -0.2 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 287 263 236
Conference Record 9 - 11 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 86% 100% 81%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 5% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 26.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 417 - 618 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 115 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 13% +2  54% 0 - 1 C- -2 D -6 F F A+ B +4 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 315 @NJIT W 74 - 53 53% +6  62% 1 - 1 A- +15 D- -8 F C+ F A+ +21 A A B+
 Mon, Nov 10 56 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  2% 1 - 2 D -10 D+ -4 C D- D+ D- -7 A- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 345 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 82% +2  70% 2 - 2 D- -14 F -11 F F+ A C- -3 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 317 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 74% +4  97% 3 - 2 D -10 C +1 D- A- A F -11 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 296 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 46% +12  94% 4 - 2 B +9 A+ +19 A B A F -10 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 197 Columbia L 77 - 106 47% -18  0% 4 - 3 F -34 D+ -3 D C+ C- F -30 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 344 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 82% +0  58% 5 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 C C D F+ -8 C- B F
 Fri, Dec 5 321 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 55% -4  4% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D -11 F -18 F F F A- +7 C A A
 Sun, Dec 7 162 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 21% -10  0% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -8 D+ -4 C F D+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 189 Monmouth W 73 - 65 47% +0  35% 6 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 B- B A C -1 C- B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 292 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 45% +14  82% 7 - 5 B +10 A- +10 A C+ C- C+ +1 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 235 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 55% +1  51% 7 - 6 0 - 3 D -11 F+ -8 F C+ B- C- -3 C A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 343 @Canisius L 81 - 85 64% -4  4% 7 - 7 0 - 4 D- -13 B+ +7 D- B B+ F -21 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 337 @Niagara W 83 - 75 61% +5  93% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -1 A+ +17 B B- A+ F -17 F C- F+
 Fri, Jan 9 356 Rider W 68 - 62 87% +8  93% 9 - 7 2 - 4 D- -12 F+ -8 F A+ A C- -3 F A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 321 Manhattan W 98 - 62 76% +20  98% 10 - 7 3 - 4 A +23 A- +10 A D+ C+ A+ +12 A+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 184 @Marist L 67 - 82 24% -13  0% 10 - 8 3 - 5 D- -13 C +1 F A- A- F -15 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 192 @Siena L 77 - 85 26% -8  5% 10 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +8 C A+ B F -16 F B- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 337 Niagara W 62 - 61 80% +3  75% 11 - 9 4 - 6 D- -14 F -15 F C- D- C+ +2 C- A- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 343 Canisius W 61 - 55 82% +7  87% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -11 D D+ F B- +2 B D B+
 Fri, Jan 30 249 @Iona W 71 - 70 35% -2  25% 13 - 9 6 - 6 C -1 B- +4 A- D- D+ D -5 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 1 193 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 47% +2  66% 13 - 10 6 - 7 D- -12 F+ -9 F C- A+ D+ -3 D D B-
 Thu, Feb 5 290 @Sacred Heart W 92 - 87 44% +8  98% 14 - 10 7 - 7 C +1 A- +10 A- B+ D+ F -10 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 184 Marist W 63 - 60 44% +4  85% 15 - 10 8 - 7 C -1 C- -1 C D A+ C -0 B- D+ B-
 Sun, Feb 15 235 @St. Peter's L 74 - 83 32% -14  0% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D -10 C +1 D+ A- D F -11 F A- A-
 Fri, Feb 20 290 Sacred Heart W 78 - 68 67% +1  44% 16 - 11 9 - 8 C -0 D+ -4 B- F B B +4 B D- C
 Sun, Feb 22 193 @Quinnipiac L 72 - 79 26%
 Fri, Feb 27 192 Siena L 72 - 73 47%
 Sun, Mar 1 285 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 71 66%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 -6 C- -1 F D+ C- D -4 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C- D+ 39% 41% 39% C- D+ B- D C B- D- D+ D- D C C+ D C- 47% 15% 37% F+ D+ C- C- C- D+ C+ D C
1.07 51% 39% 33% -3 0 0.95 33% 0.9 .30 16% .25 69% .17 1.15 58% 37% 37% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .33 15% .29 75% .19
Nov
3		 Penn St. D B C F F 38% 13% 48% B- F C- F F A+ F A+ D- B C+ B B+ B+ 52% 15% 33% D- B A D+ A- F F+ A+ C
0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13 1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24
Nov
8		 NJIT D- F C+ C F 48% 16% 36% B F B C- C+ F B+ D- B- A+ A- A A+ A+ 27% 20% 54% C- A A+ A A B+ A+ B- A
0.99 33% 38% 33% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 21% .41 67% .27 0.71 47% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.73 16% 0.7 .12 21% .20 67% .14
Nov
10		 Seton Hall D+ F C A+ C+ 30% 26% 44% D- C C F D- D+ A+ A- A+ D- A+ F A+ A+ 59% 16% 25% F A- D+ F+ F+ F F F F
0.86 23% 36% 42% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.6 .18 25% .45 78% .35 1.20 43% 50% 23% -11 +2 0.84 37% 1.2 .44 10% .45 82% .37
Nov
14		 Stonehill F F F F+ F 34% 20% 46% D+ F F B- F+ A B+ B A- C- B A+ F D+ 49% 16% 35% D- D+ A+ B- A+ F A- D B
0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25 0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12
Nov
16		 Loyola Maryland C D C+ F+ F+ 44% 25% 32% C D- B- A A- A C F D- F F F B F 49% 13% 38% D F A A A C+ C- D D+
1.19 56% 43% 28% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.4 .50 10% .30 58% .17 1.15 77% 57% 30% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 18% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 Le Moyne A+ A B A+ A+ 47% 25% 28% C- A A D+ B A B+ A+ A+ F B- A+ F+ B- 49% 11% 40% F+ C+ F F F B- F B F
1.37 68% 38% 47% +10 0 1.23 41% 1.0 .41 10% .36 87% .31 1.18 55% 0% 39% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.6 .66 21% .54 67% .36
Nov
26		 Columbia D+ F B- D+ D 38% 24% 38% D+ D A- D- C+ C- D D D- F D+ A+ F F 63% 2% 35% F F F F F F C+ F D-
1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18 1.49 62% 0% 53% +11 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25
Nov
30		 New Hampshire D+ F A+ A+ C 45% 24% 31% C- C A F C D C- F F+ F+ B- A B+ C+ 65% 8% 27% F C- F+ A+ B F F B+ F
1.11 41% 50% 47% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 17% .32 59% .19 1.05 52% 25% 29% -7 +4 0.94 32% 0.5 .17 11% .38 64% .24
Dec
5		 Manhattan F F B- F F 25% 28% 47% F F B F F F F A+ F A- B F A- B- 52% 12% 36% F C B- A+ A A F D+ F
0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10 0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30
Dec
7		 Merrimack D+ D F A C+ 38% 23% 38% C- C C- F F D+ D+ F F+ D D+ D F F 40% 16% 44% B- F A A+ A+ D F D+ F
0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20 1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40
Dec
14		 Monmouth B- F+ C A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C+ B- A D+ B A F F F C C A- B+ B- 56% 13% 31% F C- B+ B B+ D+ A+ F+ A+
1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02 1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07
Dec
18		 Central Connecticut St. A- C+ A A+ A 40% 15% 45% C- A C- B C+ C- D D D C+ A+ B C A+ 30% 22% 48% F+ A D F F F B- F+ C+
1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17 1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19
Dec
29		 St. Peter's F+ F D+ F+ F 48% 12% 40% B+ F D- A+ C+ B- D- C- D- C- D- A+ A+ B 57% 10% 33% F C F A+ A D- A+ F+ A+
0.98 40% 33% 29% -12 +2 0.81 30% 1.4 .41 18% .34 74% .25 1.04 61% 0% 21% -9 +3 0.90 42% 0.6 .23 15% .19 82% .16
Jan
2		 Canisius B+ C- F D+ F+ 43% 20% 37% C D- A D+ B B+ A B- A F A+ A+ F F 34% 16% 50% D F C- F F F F D F
1.21 59% 30% 32% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.9 .38 12% .39 74% .29 1.27 35% 25% 52% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.4 .40 9% .44 74% .33
Jan
4		 Niagara A+ C+ A A- B 44% 25% 31% C B A- D+ B- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 59% 4% 37% F F D- B+ C- F+ A+ F A+
1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34 1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08
Jan
9		 Rider F+ F F F F 43% 13% 45% C- F B A+ A+ A A+ B A+ C- D F B F 39% 33% 29% C- F B+ A+ A+ C- F A+ C-
1.09 30% 17% 24% -21 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28 0.99 58% 50% 29% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19
Jan
14		 Manhattan A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% D A D+ C- D+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C A+ B B B B F C F
1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23 0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32
Jan
17		 Marist C D C F F 30% 32% 38% D- F B- A A- A- A+ C+ A+ F F C- F F 27% 38% 36% A+ F F F F B- F D+ F
1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34 1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32
Jan
19		 Siena B+ A+ D+ F C+ 28% 28% 44% D- C D A+ A+ B D- A+ C- F F F F F 35% 35% 30% B F B+ C- B- B+ F F F
1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20 1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31
Jan
22		 Niagara F F A D- F 41% 20% 39% C+ F C D+ C- D- F F F C+ B F C- C 54% 8% 38% F C- B A+ A- C- A D+ A-
0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09 0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Canisius F D B D D 43% 26% 31% D+ D A F D+ F C+ F D- B- B A+ A+ A 58% 8% 34% F B F A+ D B+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 56% 45% 31% -1 0 1.00 41% 0.7 .27 20% .33 56% .18 0.90 45% 25% 24% -14 +3 0.80 45% 0.7 .30 23% .17 38% .06
Jan
30		 Iona B- B- B A A- 41% 15% 43% B- A- A+ F D- D+ C+ F+ C- D A- B F C- 40% 13% 47% D- C- F D+ F C F F F
1.14 63% 43% 40% +7 +1 1.17 51% 0.5 .24 18% .27 64% .18 1.12 47% 33% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 18% .33 82% .27
Feb
1		 Quinnipiac F+ F C- A- F 52% 21% 27% C+ F B+ F C- A+ F+ F F D+ D F A+ D+ 62% 17% 21% F D B- F D B- A+ B- A+
0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12 1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11
Feb
5		 Sacred Heart A- B+ A+ A A- 43% 11% 45% B- A- C- A+ B+ D+ C B- C+ F B+ C- D+ C- 30% 15% 56% C- C- D F F F F A+ F+
1.29 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.28 31% 1.4 .45 15% .27 75% .20 1.22 50% 38% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.6 .49 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Marist C- A+ B- F C 27% 21% 52% C C D+ D D A+ F A F+ C A+ F B B+ 48% 17% 35% F B- F A D+ B- C- F D-
1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19 0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24
Feb
15		 St. Peter's C D+ F B D+ 58% 24% 18% C+ D+ B B+ A- D A C A F C- C F F 45% 20% 35% D- F B- A A- A- F F F
1.08 54% 27% 38% -4 +1 0.96 41% 1.2 .50 22% .50 74% .37 1.21 56% 38% 57% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.8 .25 22% .61 85% .52
Feb
20		 Sacred Heart D+ F+ A- A+ B+ 31% 28% 41% F B- F+ F F B C+ F D- B F+ A+ B+ B+ 35% 13% 52% D B B- F D- C A- D- B
1.13 53% 47% 50% +11 -1 1.20 24% 0.4 .11 12% .28 53% .15 0.99 67% 0% 30% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.5 .35 19% .21 83% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 3.1 4th
5th 3.6 3.6 7.2 5th
6th 17.1 30.9 1.5 49.5 6th
7th 4.0 21.5 1.1 26.6 7th
8th 8.8 2.6 11.5 8th
9th 1.4 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 14.2 41.2 35.7 8.9 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 8.9% 6.8% 6.8% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.3
11-9 35.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.6 0.9 34.1
10-10 41.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 40.2
9-11 14.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 15.6 96.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 15.1 13.7 64.8 21.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%
Lose Out 6.7%