Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#277
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#216
Pace68.3#220
Improvement+0.3#161

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#236
First Shot-4.3#302
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#67
Layup/Dunks-3.2#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#189
Freethrows-3.3#333
Improvement+1.8#65

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#301
First Shot-4.4#323
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#139
Layups/Dunks-6.2#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#155
Freethrows-1.6#287
Improvement-1.5#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 65.6% 74.4% 49.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.2% 51.4% 25.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 2.1% 6.9%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round2.3% 2.9% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 415 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 126 @Penn St. L 68-76 14%     0 - 1 -2.7 -3.3 +0.5
  Sat, Nov 8 353 @NJIT W 74-53 65%     1 - 1 +10.7 -5.4 +14.7
  Mon, Nov 10 54 @Seton Hall L 59-82 5%     1 - 2 -10.5 -3.1 -7.8
  Fri, Nov 14 338 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 77%     2 - 2 -12.1 -10.2 -2.2
  Sun, Nov 16 329 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 74%     3 - 2 -10.0 +2.0 -12.1
  Sat, Nov 22 312 @Le Moyne W 97-83 48%     4 - 2 +8.2 +17.1 -9.0
  Wed, Nov 26 142 Columbia L 77-106 33%     4 - 3 -30.8 +2.5 -32.8
  Sun, Nov 30 335 New Hampshire W 72-68 76%     5 - 3 -9.6 +1.2 -10.4
  Fri, Dec 5 313 @Manhattan L 66-70 48%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -9.8 -14.6 +4.9
  Sun, Dec 7 263 @Merrimack L 63-74 36%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -13.7 -4.1 -10.5
  Sun, Dec 14 224 Monmouth W 73-65 52%     6 - 5 +1.1 +4.4 -2.4
  Thu, Dec 18 278 @Central Connecticut St. W 84-70 39%     7 - 5 +10.7 +15.6 -4.1
  Mon, Dec 29 297 St. Peter's W 70-66 65%    
  Fri, Jan 2 347 @Canisius W 69-66 61%    
  Sun, Jan 4 352 @Niagara W 71-67 64%    
  Fri, Jan 9 344 Rider W 72-63 79%    
  Wed, Jan 14 313 Manhattan W 81-75 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 157 @Marist L 63-73 19%    
  Mon, Jan 19 179 @Siena L 67-75 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 352 Niagara W 74-64 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 347 Canisius W 72-63 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 165 @Iona L 73-82 21%    
  Sun, Feb 1 160 Quinnipiac L 75-78 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 250 @Sacred Heart L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Feb 7 157 Marist L 66-70 37%    
  Sun, Feb 15 297 @St. Peter's L 67-69 43%    
  Fri, Feb 20 250 Sacred Heart W 77-75 57%    
  Sun, Feb 22 160 @Quinnipiac L 72-81 20%    
  Fri, Feb 27 179 Siena L 70-72 43%    
  Sun, Mar 1 300 Mount St. Mary's W 75-71 65%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 5.2 4.7 1.1 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.6 5.5 1.6 0.1 14.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.2 5.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 4.6 5.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 3.5 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.7 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.4 8.2 12.0 14.2 15.6 14.3 11.6 8.0 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 95.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 69.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 20.4% 20.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.9% 12.0% 12.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-6 2.3% 12.8% 12.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-7 4.7% 8.4% 8.4% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.3
12-8 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 7.4
11-9 11.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.2
10-10 14.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.9
9-11 15.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.3
8-12 14.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.0
7-13 12.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-14 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-15 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.4
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 97.3 0.0%