Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#151
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#80
Pace66.4#251
Improvement+2.0#39

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#157
First Shot-2.3#250
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#43
Layup/Dunks+4.6#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#334
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#162
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#152
Layups/Dunks+1.4#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
Freethrows+1.6#98
Improvement+2.2#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 14.8% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 81.4% 93.6% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.9% 85.4% 75.3%
Conference Champion 8.8% 12.8% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round9.4% 14.5% 8.4%
Second Round1.1% 2.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 68   @ Boise St. L 56-76 19%     0 - 1 -9.7 -7.6 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2021 236   @ Pepperdine W 86-74 OT 56%     1 - 1 +11.4 +8.0 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2021 291   @ Long Beach St. W 84-78 OT 68%     2 - 1 +1.9 +2.9 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2021 349   Idaho W 83-45 92%     3 - 1 +23.3 -3.7 +24.1
  Nov 24, 2021 235   Nicholls St. W 74-63 66%     4 - 1 +7.5 +2.9 +4.9
  Nov 27, 2021 324   Denver W 77-68 OT 90%     5 - 1 -3.9 -6.5 +2.1
  Dec 01, 2021 20   BYU L 64-75 16%    
  Dec 08, 2021 139   @ Southern Utah L 70-74 36%    
  Dec 11, 2021 78   @ Wyoming L 65-74 21%    
  Dec 21, 2021 144   @ Washington L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 30, 2021 143   Abilene Christian W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 01, 2022 153   Tarleton St. W 63-60 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 308   Dixie St. W 82-70 86%    
  Jan 12, 2022 176   @ Seattle L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 218   @ California Baptist W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 20, 2022 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 320   Lamar W 78-65 87%    
  Jan 27, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 78-62 93%    
  Feb 03, 2022 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 217   @ Sam Houston St. W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 10, 2022 110   Grand Canyon W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 94   New Mexico St. L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 17, 2022 153   @ Tarleton St. L 60-63 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 308   @ Dixie St. W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 24, 2022 176   Seattle W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 218   California Baptist W 75-69 70%    
  Mar 03, 2022 110   @ Grand Canyon L 63-69 31%    
  Mar 05, 2022 94   @ New Mexico St. L 63-71 24%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 3.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.6 4.0 0.9 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.2 1.1 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.7 3.8 5.8 1.6 0.1 12.0 5th
6th 0.4 2.9 5.7 2.5 0.2 11.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 5.5 2.9 0.3 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.2 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.0 3.4 6.6 9.7 12.1 13.8 14.6 13.0 10.0 7.0 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 92.0% 1.6    1.3 0.4
15-3 71.1% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2
14-4 37.1% 2.6    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.2
13-5 8.9% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.4 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.8% 49.4% 42.9% 6.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11.4%
16-2 1.8% 38.6% 36.9% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 2.7%
15-3 3.8% 29.5% 28.9% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 0.7%
14-4 7.0% 27.8% 27.8% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 5.1
13-5 10.0% 17.9% 17.9% 13.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 8.2
12-6 13.0% 11.1% 11.1% 13.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.6
11-7 14.6% 6.8% 6.8% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 13.6
10-8 13.8% 5.2% 5.2% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 13.1
9-9 12.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.8
8-10 9.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6
7-11 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.6
6-12 3.4% 3.4
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 9.4% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.9 3.2 1.5 0.2 90.5 0.1%