Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#123
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#82
Pace63.2#318
Improvement-1.7#292

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#123
First Shot-0.9#209
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#60
Layup/Dunks+0.5#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#132
Freethrows-1.9#277
Improvement-1.1#279

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#127
First Shot-0.4#182
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#78
Layups/Dunks-0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#70
Freethrows+0.7#150
Improvement-0.6#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 22.5% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 13.0 13.7
.500 or above 97.8% 99.4% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 95.7% 92.2%
Conference Champion 23.6% 28.2% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round18.8% 22.3% 17.0%
Second Round2.7% 3.7% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 8
Quad 414 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 320   Grambling St. W 74-53 92%     1 - 0 +8.6 -0.4 +9.8
  Nov 12, 2021 308   North Florida W 65-51 91%     2 - 0 +2.4 -5.9 +10.2
  Nov 17, 2021 249   Prairie View W 91-64 84%     3 - 0 +19.5 +16.6 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2021 80   Wyoming L 61-68 48%     3 - 1 -3.6 -4.2 -0.2
  Nov 27, 2021 229   @ Pepperdine W 59-56 63%     4 - 1 +2.7 -11.6 +14.4
  Nov 29, 2021 137   @ Loyola Marymount W 78-72 42%     5 - 1 +11.0 +8.9 +2.4
  Dec 02, 2021 278   Texas San Antonio W 74-71 87%     6 - 1 -6.4 -3.7 -2.6
  Dec 04, 2021 358   Mississippi Valley W 91-44 99%     7 - 1 +19.2 +4.6 +14.6
  Dec 09, 2021 105   @ Arizona St. L 64-68 34%    
  Dec 18, 2021 42   San Francisco L 63-70 26%    
  Dec 21, 2021 93   @ Nevada L 68-74 29%    
  Dec 30, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 78-56 98%    
  Jan 06, 2022 292   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 313   @ Lamar W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 13, 2022 128   Abilene Christian W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 191   Tarleton St. W 63-56 74%    
  Jan 20, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 22, 2022 224   @ Sam Houston St. W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 29, 2022 104   @ New Mexico St. L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 03, 2022 199   Seattle W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 219   California Baptist W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 132   @ Utah Valley L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 12, 2022 305   @ Dixie St. W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 16, 2022 219   @ California Baptist W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 19, 2022 104   New Mexico St. W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 355   @ Chicago St. W 75-59 93%    
  Feb 26, 2022 224   Sam Houston St. W 71-62 77%    
  Mar 03, 2022 132   Utah Valley W 67-63 63%    
  Mar 05, 2022 305   Dixie St. W 80-66 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.3 7.6 5.7 2.5 0.6 23.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.5 7.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.9 6.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.0 1.6 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.8 1.8 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.7 0.2 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.5 6.0 9.3 13.0 15.1 16.2 14.0 10.4 6.1 2.5 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.9% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 93.5% 5.7    4.8 1.0 0.0
15-3 72.7% 7.6    4.4 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 38.0% 5.3    1.6 2.6 1.0 0.2
13-5 10.4% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 14.0 6.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 61.5% 54.4% 7.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.6%
17-1 2.5% 47.7% 44.8% 3.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 5.4%
16-2 6.1% 43.0% 42.3% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.5 1.1%
15-3 10.4% 35.2% 35.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.0 0.1 6.8 0.1%
14-4 14.0% 26.8% 26.8% 13.5 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 10.3
13-5 16.2% 19.0% 19.0% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 13.2
12-6 15.1% 13.5% 13.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 13.1
11-7 13.0% 9.5% 9.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 11.7
10-8 9.3% 6.7% 6.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.7
9-9 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.8
8-10 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 3.5
7-11 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 0.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.9% 18.7% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.9 6.0 5.9 2.9 0.4 81.1 0.2%