Grand Canyon
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#100
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#98
Pace75.6#38
Improvement+1.8#71

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
First Shot+2.0#120
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks+0.5#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#225
Freethrows+1.2#107
Improvement-1.0#256

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#99
First Shot+2.2#113
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#155
Layups/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#191
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement+2.7#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 45.2% 36.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.0 12.7
.500 or above 98.6% 99.6% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 97.3% 95.2%
Conference Champion 52.7% 60.8% 49.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round38.6% 45.1% 36.2%
Second Round7.7% 10.5% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.7% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Neutral) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 38 - 410 - 7
Quad 412 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 89-79 92%     1 - 0 -0.5 +8.0 -9.1
  Nov 09, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 74-72 68%     2 - 0 +2.3 -3.1 +5.2
  Nov 14, 2024 51   Arizona St. L 76-87 33%     2 - 1 -1.2 +3.6 -4.1
  Nov 20, 2024 204   UC Davis L 68-75 83%     2 - 2 -11.9 -7.5 -4.0
  Nov 22, 2024 153   Norfolk St. W 91-73 77%     3 - 2 +15.4 +15.5 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2024 93   Stanford W 78-71 48%     4 - 2 +12.7 +2.5 +9.7
  Dec 03, 2024 162   Hawaii W 78-72 79%     5 - 2 +2.5 -2.3 +4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 38   Georgia L 72-79 27%    
  Dec 16, 2024 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 72-74 42%    
  Dec 19, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 87-65 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 137   Saint Louis W 84-77 74%    
  Dec 28, 2024 312   San Diego W 83-70 89%    
  Dec 30, 2024 176   Bryant W 88-79 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 199   Southern Utah W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 09, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 81-64 94%    
  Jan 23, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 80-71 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 123   Seattle W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 184   Utah Valley W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 185   @ California Baptist W 75-72 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington W 83-80 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 185   California Baptist W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   Texas Arlington W 86-77 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 83-68 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian W 77-74 61%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.9 10.6 14.3 13.0 7.7 2.7 52.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.0 6.3 2.3 0.3 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.6 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.0 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.8 11.1 14.8 17.2 16.6 13.3 7.7 2.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
15-1 100.0% 7.7    7.6 0.1
14-2 97.9% 13.0    12.0 1.0
13-3 86.1% 14.3    10.9 3.2 0.2
12-4 61.3% 10.6    5.6 4.2 0.7 0.0
11-5 26.6% 3.9    0.9 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 52.7% 52.7 39.8 10.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.7% 71.0% 68.8% 2.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.8 7.2%
15-1 7.7% 62.5% 62.2% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 2.9 0.8%
14-2 13.3% 55.8% 55.7% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.7 4.9 1.7 0.1 5.9 0.1%
13-3 16.6% 49.4% 49.4% 12.5 0.2 4.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.4
12-4 17.2% 40.6% 40.6% 12.8 0.0 2.5 3.3 1.1 0.0 10.2
11-5 14.8% 33.0% 33.0% 13.1 0.0 1.1 2.5 1.1 0.2 9.9
10-6 11.1% 22.8% 22.8% 13.3 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 8.5
9-7 7.8% 15.7% 15.7% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.6
8-8 4.5% 8.3% 8.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
7-9 2.5% 6.5% 6.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
6-10 1.2% 4.9% 4.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-11 0.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 38.6% 38.5% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.8 16.7 13.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 61.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 7.1 2.8 7.9 16.7 26.0 9.3 8.8 8.4 7.9 9.3 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 24.2% 10.3 6.1 12.1 6.1