Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#89
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#67
Pace64.4#312
Improvement+4.0#13

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#71
First Shot+2.6#102
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#62
Layup/Dunks-3.4#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#315
Freethrows+5.8#2
Improvement+2.7#25

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#116
First Shot+2.5#97
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#246
Layups/Dunks+3.8#53
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
Freethrows-2.1#317
Improvement+1.4#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 11.0% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 4.3% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 11.1
.500 or above 95.5% 98.5% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 91.1% 74.5%
Conference Champion 7.5% 12.4% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.6% 2.7% 1.0%
First Round7.0% 9.4% 5.5%
Second Round1.7% 2.5% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 25 - 46 - 9
Quad 39 - 215 - 11
Quad 46 - 121 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 187 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 85%     1 - 0 +22.2 +14.6 +10.7
  Sat, Nov 8 138 Pacific W 78-77 77%     2 - 0 -0.3 +7.5 -7.8
  Wed, Nov 12 130 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 76%     3 - 0 +4.0 +4.2 -0.7
  Sat, Nov 15 86 @Santa Clara L 83-98 37%     3 - 1 -5.4 +13.7 -19.0
  Tue, Nov 18 176 UC Davis L 71-75 84%     3 - 2 -8.2 -8.2 +0.3
  Sat, Nov 22 150 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 79%     4 - 2 +10.7 +2.4 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 27 48 Washington L 66-83 33%     4 - 3 -6.2 -2.9 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 28 95 San Francisco W 81-65 52%     5 - 3 +21.8 +17.4 +5.9
  Tue, Dec 2 83 UC San Diego W 76-70 59%     6 - 3 +9.9 +11.3 -0.9
  Sun, Dec 7 149 @Washington St. W 78-64 59%     7 - 3 +17.8 +15.0 +4.3
  Sat, Dec 13 121 Duquesne W 78-75 74%     8 - 3 +2.5 +7.4 -4.8
  Sat, Dec 20 51 Boise St. W 81-66 47%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +22.1 +22.7 +1.2
  Tue, Dec 30 91 @Colorado St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Jan 3 184 @Fresno St. W 76-71 68%    
  Tue, Jan 6 52 San Diego St. L 71-72 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 103 Wyoming W 76-71 66%    
  Wed, Jan 14 33 @Utah St. L 69-79 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 322 @Air Force W 73-60 89%    
  Tue, Jan 20 197 San Jose St. W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 66 @New Mexico L 73-78 32%    
  Tue, Jan 27 87 Grand Canyon W 72-69 60%    
  Fri, Jan 30 133 UNLV W 80-73 76%    
  Tue, Feb 3 51 @Boise St. L 66-73 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 184 Fresno St. W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Feb 14 52 @San Diego St. L 68-75 27%    
  Tue, Feb 17 197 @San Jose St. W 74-68 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 33 Utah St. L 72-76 35%    
  Tue, Feb 24 66 New Mexico W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 133 @UNLV W 77-76 55%    
  Tue, Mar 3 103 @Wyoming L 73-74 45%    
  Sat, Mar 7 322 Air Force W 76-57 96%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 4.5 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.1 4.5 1.1 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.3 5.3 1.1 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.9 5.3 1.1 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.6 5.4 1.3 0.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.6 1.5 0.1 10.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.0 5.4 8.7 12.3 14.8 15.2 14.2 11.0 7.1 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 97.4% 0.6    0.6 0.1
17-3 86.2% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 61.4% 2.4    1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 29.9% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 6.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 74.2% 29.0% 45.2% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.6%
18-2 0.6% 75.8% 23.7% 52.1% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 68.3%
17-3 1.7% 43.5% 18.4% 25.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 30.8%
16-4 3.9% 30.8% 16.0% 14.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 2.7 17.7%
15-5 7.1% 18.0% 11.7% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.8 7.2%
14-6 11.0% 12.4% 9.5% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.1 9.6 3.3%
13-7 14.2% 8.3% 7.3% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 13.1 1.0%
12-8 15.2% 5.1% 4.9% 0.2% 11.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.4 0.2%
11-9 14.8% 3.4% 3.4% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 14.3
10-10 12.3% 1.9% 1.9% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.1
9-11 8.7% 0.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
8-12 5.4% 0.8% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
7-13 3.0% 0.7% 0.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.0% 5.7% 2.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.0 2.5%