Nevada
Mountain West
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#59
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#36
Pace66.5#230
Improvement+0.6#115

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#59
First Shot+5.6#40
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#241
Layup/Dunks+0.7#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#199
Freethrows+3.7#7
Improvement+0.8#60

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#69
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#61
Layups/Dunks+3.1#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#203
Freethrows+0.0#190
Improvement-0.2#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 5.9% 6.7% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.9% 67.1% 50.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.6% 62.8% 46.3%
Average Seed 9.1 9.0 9.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.8%
Conference Champion 17.8% 19.8% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.4% 13.0% 16.2%
First Round57.1% 59.5% 41.2%
Second Round22.9% 24.1% 14.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 6.2% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.0% 1.0%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 25 - 28 - 8
Quad 38 - 116 - 9
Quad 45 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 211   Utah Tech W 84-71 90%     1 - 0 +8.2 +5.8 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2022 116   Grand Canyon W 59-46 80%     2 - 0 +13.1 -5.6 +20.9
  Nov 18, 2022 274   @ Texas Arlington W 62-43 87%     3 - 0 +15.9 -11.6 +27.5
  Nov 21, 2022 77   Tulane W 75-66 58%     4 - 0 +15.9 +4.8 +11.2
  Nov 22, 2022 28   Kansas St. L 87-96 OT 35%     4 - 1 +3.8 +16.7 -12.5
  Nov 23, 2022 108   Akron W 62-58 69%     5 - 1 +7.7 -1.7 +9.8
  Nov 28, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. W 78-60 69%     6 - 1 +21.8 +13.5 +9.5
  Dec 03, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 52-64 53%     6 - 2 -3.8 -11.6 +6.6
  Dec 06, 2022 190   @ Pepperdine W 85-77 76%     7 - 2 +9.6 +7.9 +1.3
  Dec 10, 2022 48   @ Oregon L 65-78 36%     7 - 3 -0.3 -1.9 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2022 262   UC San Diego W 64-56 93%     8 - 3 -0.1 -8.3 +8.7
  Dec 21, 2022 203   Norfolk St. W 78-66 89%     9 - 3 +7.6 +7.9 +0.9
  Dec 28, 2022 36   Boise St. W 74-72 50%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +11.0 +10.5 +0.6
  Dec 31, 2022 168   @ Air Force W 75-69 72%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +8.8 +7.2 +1.9
  Jan 04, 2023 113   Colorado St. W 80-69 78%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +11.7 +12.7 +0.0
  Jan 07, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. W 67-40 63%     13 - 3 4 - 0 +32.4 +0.4 +34.1
  Jan 10, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. L 65-74 28%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +5.9 +4.0 +1.3
  Jan 13, 2023 47   Utah St. W 85-70 56%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +22.3 +16.4 +6.6
  Jan 17, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 62-77 30%     14 - 5 5 - 2 -0.5 +6.0 -8.0
  Jan 23, 2023 54   New Mexico W 97-94 2OT 58%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +9.8 +8.4 +0.9
  Jan 28, 2023 76   @ UNLV L 62-68 47%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +3.7 -9.2 +13.3
  Jan 31, 2023 33   San Diego St. W 75-66 48%     16 - 6 7 - 3 +18.4 +15.2 +4.2
  Feb 03, 2023 168   Air Force W 71-59 87%    
  Feb 07, 2023 54   @ New Mexico L 74-77 37%    
  Feb 10, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 69-57 87%    
  Feb 18, 2023 47   @ Utah St. L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 21, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 71-62 81%    
  Feb 24, 2023 169   @ Fresno St. W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 27, 2023 139   @ Wyoming W 73-68 66%    
  Mar 04, 2023 76   UNLV W 73-68 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.0 9.3 3.2 17.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 5.9 16.0 5.4 0.3 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.7 14.3 6.4 0.2 24.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 8.8 6.9 0.3 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.4 4.5 0.6 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.7 17.3 28.0 27.7 14.8 3.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 92.1% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.0
14-4 62.7% 9.3    2.9 4.8 1.5 0.1
13-5 17.9% 5.0    0.4 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 5.4 7.4 3.8 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.5% 99.2% 17.3% 81.9% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.0%
14-4 14.8% 92.2% 14.9% 77.3% 7.7 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.8 3.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 1.2 90.8%
13-5 27.7% 78.0% 12.5% 65.5% 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 7.6 7.1 1.9 0.0 6.1 74.8%
12-6 28.0% 60.2% 9.9% 50.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.9 4.8 0.1 11.1 55.8%
11-7 17.3% 42.2% 8.3% 33.9% 10.4 0.1 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.2 10.0 37.0%
10-8 6.7% 27.1% 7.1% 20.0% 10.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.1 4.9 21.5%
9-9 1.8% 14.4% 5.6% 8.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 9.3%
8-10 0.2% 9.3% 7.5% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 64.9% 11.1% 53.9% 9.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 3.0 5.0 8.4 14.2 19.2 11.8 0.4 0.0 35.1 60.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 99.2% 4.9 0.3 6.2 27.7 35.6 24.2 4.8 0.4