Nevada
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#93
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#149
Pace74.3#60
Improvement+1.7#66

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#65
First Shot+4.3#61
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#159
Layup/Dunks+0.3#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#77
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement-0.5#234

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#135
First Shot+1.0#141
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#217
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement+2.2#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 12.1% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.7% 4.7% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 11.7
.500 or above 68.9% 75.5% 50.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 70.5% 58.5%
Conference Champion 6.7% 7.5% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.1% 2.1%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 0.7%
First Round9.5% 11.1% 5.3%
Second Round3.1% 3.7% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 37 - 311 - 13
Quad 46 - 116 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 222   Eastern Washington W 91-76 85%     1 - 0 +9.5 +5.6 +2.6
  Nov 13, 2021 178   San Diego L 68-75 81%     1 - 1 -10.5 -2.1 -8.6
  Nov 16, 2021 83   @ Santa Clara L 74-96 36%     1 - 2 -12.7 -2.9 -7.7
  Nov 18, 2021 42   @ San Francisco L 70-73 24%     1 - 3 +9.9 +6.2 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2021 68   South Dakota St. L 75-102 44%     1 - 4 -19.8 -9.6 -6.5
  Nov 23, 2021 139   George Mason W 88-69 64%     2 - 4 +20.9 +12.3 +7.7
  Nov 24, 2021 148   Washington W 81-62 66%     3 - 4 +20.4 +6.2 +13.2
  Nov 30, 2021 229   Pepperdine W 79-66 87%     4 - 4 +6.7 -4.0 +9.5
  Dec 18, 2021 137   Loyola Marymount W 79-72 73%    
  Dec 21, 2021 123   Grand Canyon W 74-68 71%    
  Dec 29, 2021 267   @ San Jose St. W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 01, 2022 200   New Mexico W 88-78 82%    
  Jan 04, 2022 80   Wyoming W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 52   @ San Diego St. L 65-71 28%    
  Jan 12, 2022 78   Boise St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 246   @ Air Force W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 21, 2022 112   Fresno St. W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 25, 2022 32   @ Colorado St. L 74-83 20%    
  Jan 29, 2022 50   Utah St. L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 01, 2022 168   @ UNLV W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 04, 2022 112   @ Fresno St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 08, 2022 32   Colorado St. L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 11, 2022 50   @ Utah St. L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 16, 2022 267   San Jose St. W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 22, 2022 168   UNLV W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 80   @ Wyoming L 72-76 37%    
  Mar 01, 2022 78   @ Boise St. L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 05, 2022 52   San Diego St. L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.5 2.3 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 6.5 2.7 0.2 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.3 6.2 2.6 0.2 14.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.5 2.3 0.2 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.5 1.5 0.2 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.0 8.9 12.1 13.6 13.9 13.6 10.6 7.6 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 96.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 81.2% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
14-4 48.2% 2.2    1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 97.5% 40.5% 57.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8%
16-2 0.9% 84.8% 30.8% 54.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 78.0%
15-3 2.2% 65.1% 25.5% 39.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 53.1%
14-4 4.5% 40.8% 18.8% 22.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.7 27.1%
13-5 7.6% 24.3% 15.8% 8.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.7 10.0%
12-6 10.6% 12.9% 10.8% 2.1% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 2.3%
11-7 13.6% 8.3% 7.8% 0.5% 11.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 12.4 0.6%
10-8 13.9% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 13.1 0.0%
9-9 13.6% 3.5% 3.5% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2
8-10 12.1% 2.0% 2.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.8
7-11 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.8
6-12 6.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.4% 6.9% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.9 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 89.6 3.7%