Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#52
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#121
Pace68.5#184
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 4.1% 6.3% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 9.2% 13.6% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.0% 48.7% 27.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.1% 34.1% 15.6%
Average Seed 8.3 8.0 9.0
.500 or above 90.3% 95.5% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 91.8% 82.6%
Conference Champion 22.9% 28.1% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four6.5% 7.6% 5.2%
First Round35.9% 45.1% 25.4%
Second Round19.6% 25.9% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 9.8% 3.8%
Elite Eight2.9% 4.2% 1.5%
Final Four1.1% 1.5% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Neutral) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 47 - 7
Quad 38 - 215 - 9
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 12, 2025 283   Weber St. W 81-61 97%    
  Nov 15, 2025 166   UTEP W 80-66 91%    
  Nov 21, 2025 111   Tulane W 78-71 73%    
  Nov 29, 2025 210   Montana St. W 81-65 93%    
  Dec 04, 2025 81   @ South Florida W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 07, 2025 174   @ Charlotte W 76-68 77%    
  Dec 13, 2025 101   Illinois St. W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 20, 2025 74   Colorado St. W 76-70 69%    
  Dec 30, 2025 202   @ Fresno St. W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 03, 2026 167   San Jose St. W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 06, 2026 304   @ Air Force W 77-62 90%    
  Jan 10, 2026 53   @ Boise St. L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 14, 2026 107   Nevada W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 17, 2026 78   @ Grand Canyon W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 20, 2026 96   UNLV W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 23, 2026 74   @ Colorado St. W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 28, 2026 156   Wyoming W 77-63 88%    
  Jan 31, 2026 36   San Diego St. W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 04, 2026 94   @ New Mexico W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 07, 2026 156   @ Wyoming W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 10, 2026 202   Fresno St. W 86-70 90%    
  Feb 14, 2026 55   Memphis W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 18, 2026 53   Boise St. W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 21, 2026 107   @ Nevada W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 25, 2026 36   @ San Diego St. L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 28, 2026 78   Grand Canyon W 81-74 71%    
  Mar 03, 2026 96   @ UNLV W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 07, 2026 94   New Mexico W 82-74 75%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.8 6.3 5.2 3.0 0.9 22.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.2 5.3 2.2 0.4 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.6 5.5 2.8 0.6 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.2 1.7 0.2 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.4 4.8 6.0 8.2 10.2 11.2 11.8 11.4 10.7 8.5 5.6 3.0 0.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.1
18-2 93.6% 5.2    4.5 0.8 0.0
17-3 73.5% 6.3    4.4 1.7 0.1
16-4 44.9% 4.8    2.3 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 19.0% 2.2    0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 15.7 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 63.3% 36.7% 2.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.0% 98.3% 54.0% 44.3% 4.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.4%
18-2 5.6% 94.0% 46.3% 47.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 88.8%
17-3 8.5% 84.9% 37.0% 47.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 1.3 76.0%
16-4 10.7% 72.1% 30.0% 42.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.1 0.0 3.0 60.1%
15-5 11.4% 54.3% 23.0% 31.3% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 1.7 0.1 5.2 40.7%
14-6 11.8% 37.3% 17.1% 20.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.0 0.1 7.4 24.3%
13-7 11.2% 21.9% 12.3% 9.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.1 8.8 11.0%
12-8 10.2% 10.6% 7.2% 3.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.1 3.6%
11-9 8.2% 6.4% 4.8% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.6 1.6%
10-10 6.0% 2.7% 2.5% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.3%
9-11 4.8% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.2%
8-12 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 39.0% 18.6% 20.4% 8.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.1 3.0 3.2 3.9 5.7 8.3 8.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.0 25.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 36.2 48.9 10.6 2.1 2.1