Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#33
Expected Predictive Rating+15.5#29
Pace69.6#183
Improvement+2.3#57

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#37
First Shot+6.3#37
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#78
Layup/Dunks+7.1#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#138
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement+2.1#45

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#37
First Shot+8.7#11
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#342
Layups/Dunks+9.5#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows-0.5#221
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 4.9% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 13.5% 14.8% 4.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.0% 74.9% 60.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.8% 60.1% 43.5%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.4% 96.0%
Conference Champion 55.2% 58.3% 33.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.0% 9.7% 12.0%
First Round68.4% 70.4% 54.6%
Second Round36.9% 38.6% 25.1%
Sweet Sixteen11.1% 12.0% 5.6%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.4% 2.1%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 2
Quad 28 - 310 - 5
Quad 310 - 120 - 6
Quad 46 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 47 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-77 59%     1 - 0 +14.1 +5.9 +8.0
  Wed, Nov 12 223 Weber St. W 83-73 96%     2 - 0 +3.2 +4.4 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 202 UTEP W 75-51 95%     3 - 0 +18.3 +3.5 +15.5
  Fri, Nov 21 194 Tulane W 96-75 92%     4 - 0 +18.8 +22.5 -3.3
  Sun, Nov 23 140 Davidson W 94-60 87%     5 - 0 +35.4 +21.6 +13.6
  Sat, Nov 29 168 Montana St. W 84-81 OT 93%     6 - 0 -0.6 +2.0 -2.9
  Thu, Dec 4 79 @South Florida L 61-74 63%     6 - 1 -3.1 -8.2 +5.3
  Sun, Dec 7 183 @Charlotte W 79-53 87%     7 - 1 +27.3 +11.6 +17.8
  Sat, Dec 13 82 Illinois St. W 83-78 74%     8 - 1 +11.9 +16.6 -4.5
  Sat, Dec 20 91 Colorado St. W 100-58 83%     9 - 1 1 - 0 +45.1 +33.8 +15.5
  Tue, Dec 30 184 @Fresno St. W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 197 San Jose St. W 83-64 96%    
  Tue, Jan 6 322 @Air Force W 79-59 97%    
  Sat, Jan 10 51 @Boise St. W 72-71 51%    
  Wed, Jan 14 89 Nevada W 79-69 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 87 @Grand Canyon W 75-71 64%    
  Tue, Jan 20 133 UNLV W 87-72 91%    
  Fri, Jan 23 91 @Colorado St. W 76-72 66%    
  Wed, Jan 28 103 Wyoming W 82-70 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 52 San Diego St. W 78-71 72%    
  Wed, Feb 4 66 @New Mexico W 79-77 59%    
  Sat, Feb 7 103 @Wyoming W 79-73 70%    
  Tue, Feb 10 184 Fresno St. W 85-67 95%    
  Sat, Feb 14 72 Memphis W 79-70 79%    
  Wed, Feb 18 51 Boise St. W 75-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 89 @Nevada W 76-72 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 52 @San Diego St. W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 87 Grand Canyon W 78-68 81%    
  Tue, Mar 3 133 @UNLV W 84-75 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 66 New Mexico W 82-74 77%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 6.7 13.0 14.7 11.5 5.7 1.7 55.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.7 7.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.3 9.0 12.5 15.9 17.2 15.7 11.6 5.7 1.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 100.0% 5.7    5.7 0.0
18-2 99.3% 11.5    11.1 0.4
17-3 93.7% 14.7    12.6 2.0 0.0
16-4 75.8% 13.0    8.4 4.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 42.4% 6.7    2.5 3.0 1.1 0.1
14-6 13.1% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.2% 55.2 42.2 10.3 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 99.8% 60.0% 39.8% 3.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
19-1 5.7% 99.1% 54.2% 45.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.1%
18-2 11.6% 97.6% 51.6% 45.9% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 94.9%
17-3 15.7% 92.5% 45.0% 47.5% 8.2 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.7 3.5 3.8 2.2 0.5 1.2 86.4%
16-4 17.2% 85.0% 38.7% 46.3% 9.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.2 4.6 1.8 0.0 2.6 75.5%
15-5 15.9% 72.9% 32.9% 40.0% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.6 3.2 0.0 4.3 59.6%
14-6 12.5% 58.3% 27.1% 31.2% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 3.3 0.1 5.2 42.8%
13-7 9.0% 43.5% 22.1% 21.4% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 0.1 5.1 27.5%
12-8 5.3% 29.6% 18.5% 11.1% 10.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.1 3.8 13.6%
11-9 2.9% 20.1% 13.9% 6.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 2.3 7.2%
10-10 1.5% 13.9% 9.8% 4.1% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3 4.5%
9-11 0.7% 6.3% 6.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.3% 8.9% 8.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 73.0% 36.0% 37.0% 8.5 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.6 5.5 7.2 9.5 13.0 16.2 13.1 0.5 0.0 27.0 57.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 2.6 18.6 29.7 28.7 19.0 3.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.3 1.5 3.0 24.2 31.8 19.7 13.6 3.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 4.3 2.9 5.9 14.7 30.9 30.9 10.3 4.4