Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#46
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#39
Pace69.6#169
Improvement+2.4#31

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#38
First Shot+8.1#13
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#305
Layup/Dunks+2.4#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows+0.8#129
Improvement+1.1#68

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#65
First Shot+3.5#70
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#128
Layups/Dunks+5.7#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#273
Freethrows-0.1#187
Improvement+1.3#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 4.5% 6.4% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 10.9% 14.7% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.6% 67.2% 46.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.0% 56.4% 34.5%
Average Seed 8.8 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 98.0% 99.3% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.0% 95.5% 91.9%
Conference Champion 29.2% 32.9% 23.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four8.5% 8.8% 8.0%
First Round54.3% 62.7% 42.3%
Second Round26.4% 31.9% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.6% 10.7% 5.5%
Elite Eight3.2% 4.0% 2.0%
Final Four1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 58.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 26 - 39 - 7
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 48 - 123 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 211   UC Davis L 69-72 91%     0 - 1 -8.1 -10.9 +3.0
  Nov 12, 2021 80   Richmond W 85-74 62%     1 - 1 +17.6 +18.7 -0.3
  Nov 18, 2021 192   Penn W 87-79 2OT 85%     2 - 1 +6.6 +1.2 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2021 94   New Mexico St. W 85-58 66%     3 - 1 +32.7 +22.1 +13.3
  Nov 21, 2021 35   Oklahoma W 73-70 43%     4 - 1 +14.7 +7.3 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2021 237   Texas Arlington W 80-61 93%     5 - 1 +12.4 +6.8 +5.7
  Dec 02, 2021 41   St. Mary's W 65-63 59%    
  Dec 08, 2021 20   @ BYU L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 11, 2021 274   New Orleans W 87-68 96%    
  Dec 15, 2021 98   @ Weber St. W 74-72 55%    
  Dec 18, 2021 19   Iowa L 78-83 33%    
  Dec 21, 2021 272   Portland St. W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 258   @ Air Force W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 01, 2022 294   San Jose St. W 84-64 96%    
  Jan 04, 2022 68   Boise St. W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 08, 2022 230   @ New Mexico W 82-72 82%    
  Jan 12, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 74-77 37%    
  Jan 15, 2022 78   Wyoming W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 18, 2022 130   @ Fresno St. W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 26, 2022 49   San Diego St. W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 92   @ Nevada W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 01, 2022 258   Air Force W 73-55 94%    
  Feb 05, 2022 145   UNLV W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 08, 2022 78   @ Wyoming W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 11, 2022 92   Nevada W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 15, 2022 49   @ San Diego St. L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 68   @ Boise St. L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 22, 2022 230   New Mexico W 85-69 92%    
  Feb 26, 2022 42   Colorado St. W 77-74 58%    
  Mar 04, 2022 294   @ San Jose St. W 81-67 89%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.5 8.8 7.1 3.2 0.8 29.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 8.5 6.2 2.2 0.2 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 7.4 5.0 0.8 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 6.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.0 2.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 3.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 5.7 8.8 12.5 14.7 16.5 13.6 11.0 7.3 3.2 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.1 0.0
16-2 96.9% 7.1    6.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 79.7% 8.8    6.3 2.3 0.3
14-4 48.2% 6.5    2.7 3.0 0.8 0.0
13-5 15.3% 2.5    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 19.7 7.2 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 98.8% 55.0% 43.8% 3.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.2%
17-1 3.2% 99.0% 53.3% 45.7% 4.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0%
16-2 7.3% 98.8% 42.1% 56.6% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.9%
15-3 11.0% 94.3% 33.8% 60.5% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.6 91.4%
14-4 13.6% 85.1% 30.6% 54.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.9 2.7 1.8 0.3 2.0 78.5%
13-5 16.5% 68.8% 22.1% 46.7% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.5 3.6 0.8 5.2 59.9%
12-6 14.7% 49.3% 16.2% 33.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 1.2 0.0 7.5 39.4%
11-7 12.5% 36.3% 13.0% 23.3% 10.9 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.1 0.0 7.9 26.8%
10-8 8.8% 18.8% 8.4% 10.4% 11.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 7.2 11.4%
9-9 5.7% 9.9% 5.3% 4.6% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.1 4.8%
8-10 3.4% 4.5% 4.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
7-11 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 14.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.6% 22.0% 36.7% 8.8 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.7 4.8 6.4 8.7 10.6 12.6 4.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 41.4 47.0%