New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#72
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#51
Pace76.4#34
Improvement+4.0#15

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#93
First Shot+3.3#90
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks+2.7#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#120
Freethrows+1.5#94
Improvement+3.8#5

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#60
First Shot+4.1#51
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#172
Layups/Dunks+8.5#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#338
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement+0.2#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 20.3% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.7% 11.6% 4.2%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.6
.500 or above 96.8% 97.7% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 85.1% 63.2%
Conference Champion 12.1% 13.2% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four5.4% 5.8% 2.3%
First Round16.2% 17.1% 9.5%
Second Round5.5% 5.8% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 47 - 8
Quad 36 - 213 - 11
Quad 48 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 295 East Texas A&M W 76-54 94%     1 - 0 +11.7 -7.2 +16.8
  Sat, Nov 8 176 Texas Arlington W 74-56 87%     2 - 0 +13.9 -0.6 +14.1
  Tue, Nov 11 268 UC Riverside W 82-68 93%     3 - 0 +5.3 +8.1 -2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 133 @New Mexico St. L 68-76 62%     3 - 1 -3.3 +2.3 -6.1
  Thu, Nov 20 25 Nebraska L 72-84 25%     3 - 2 +2.9 -4.2 +8.7
  Fri, Nov 21 84 Mississippi St. W 80-78 55%     4 - 2 +8.6 +6.9 +1.6
  Wed, Nov 26 266 Alabama St. W 93-87 93%     5 - 2 -2.6 +10.6 -13.4
  Sat, Dec 6 74 Santa Clara W 98-71 62%     6 - 2 +31.8 +24.2 +7.0
  Wed, Dec 10 50 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81-78 28%     7 - 2 +16.9 +16.2 +0.7
  Sun, Dec 14 185 Florida Gulf Coast W 75-59 87%     8 - 2 +11.4 +0.5 +11.3
  Sat, Dec 20 189 San Jose St. W 82-69 88%    
  Tue, Dec 30 47 @Boise St. L 70-76 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 89 Wyoming W 81-76 68%    
  Tue, Jan 6 70 @Colorado St. L 74-77 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 322 @Air Force W 77-63 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 92 Grand Canyon W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 52 @San Diego St. L 76-81 31%    
  Wed, Jan 21 184 Fresno St. W 84-72 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 98 Nevada W 78-72 70%    
  Tue, Jan 27 139 @UNLV W 83-80 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 189 @San Jose St. W 79-72 72%    
  Wed, Feb 4 44 Utah St. L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 47 Boise St. L 73-74 49%    
  Wed, Feb 11 92 @Grand Canyon L 75-76 47%    
  Tue, Feb 17 322 Air Force W 80-60 97%    
  Sat, Feb 21 184 @Fresno St. W 81-75 71%    
  Tue, Feb 24 98 @Nevada L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 52 San Diego St. W 79-78 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 70 Colorado St. W 77-74 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 44 @Utah St. L 75-81 28%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 3.1 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 12.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.1 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.9 4.6 1.2 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.8 5.2 1.1 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.3 4.9 1.2 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.7 1.4 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.0 1.2 0.1 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.0 7.7 10.7 13.2 14.2 14.1 11.8 8.7 5.5 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 99.4% 1.2    1.1 0.1
17-3 88.8% 2.5    2.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 67.4% 3.7    2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 35.8% 3.1    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1
14-6 8.6% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.7 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 95.3% 37.7% 57.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.4%
18-2 1.2% 89.5% 30.1% 59.4% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 85.0%
17-3 2.8% 79.3% 29.4% 49.9% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6 70.7%
16-4 5.5% 59.7% 20.3% 39.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.0 2.2 49.4%
15-5 8.7% 42.3% 17.3% 25.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 0.0 5.0 30.2%
14-6 11.8% 28.7% 13.9% 14.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.1 8.4 17.3%
13-7 14.1% 16.8% 11.1% 5.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.2 11.7 6.5%
12-8 14.2% 9.8% 7.6% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.2 12.8 2.4%
11-9 13.2% 5.9% 5.1% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 12.4 0.8%
10-10 10.7% 3.5% 3.4% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.3 0.2%
9-11 7.7% 2.5% 2.5% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-12 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
7-13 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 19.2% 9.5% 9.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.7 9.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.8 10.7%