New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#65
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#44
Pace83.1#2
Improvement-0.7#226

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#59
First Shot+4.9#57
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks+6.8#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#284
Freethrows+2.8#55
Improvement+1.0#105

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#78
First Shot+1.4#129
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#37
Layups/Dunks+1.7#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#247
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement-1.7#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.6% 28.5% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.3% 17.1% 7.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 98.1% 98.4% 93.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 92.5% 86.0%
Conference Champion 15.9% 16.3% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.0% 6.2% 3.5%
First Round24.5% 25.4% 13.8%
Second Round10.5% 10.9% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.0% 3.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 36 - 112 - 10
Quad 410 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 223   Nicholls St. W 91-84 92%     1 - 0 +0.6 +0.2 -0.8
  Nov 08, 2024 18   UCLA W 72-64 30%     2 - 0 +22.6 +4.0 +18.0
  Nov 12, 2024 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 100-81 91%     3 - 0 +13.3 +7.1 +3.1
  Nov 17, 2024 20   @ St. John's L 71-85 21%     3 - 1 +3.5 +7.2 -3.7
  Nov 21, 2024 226   Grambling St. W 80-58 92%     4 - 1 +15.4 -3.5 +16.3
  Nov 24, 2024 294   Texas Southern W 99-68 95%     5 - 1 +21.1 +12.5 +5.5
  Nov 28, 2024 51   Arizona St. L 82-85 47%     5 - 2 +6.8 +10.5 -3.6
  Nov 29, 2024 106   USC W 83-73 69%     6 - 2 +14.1 +9.8 +4.0
  Dec 04, 2024 194   San Jose St. W 83-77 89%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +1.6 +5.7 -4.2
  Dec 07, 2024 218   New Mexico St. W 84-69 93%    
  Dec 18, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth W 77-75 59%    
  Dec 28, 2024 99   @ Colorado St. W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 31, 2024 255   @ Fresno St. W 89-78 85%    
  Jan 03, 2025 48   Nevada W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 07, 2025 177   @ Wyoming W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 37   San Diego St. L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 14, 2025 194   @ San Jose St. W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 17, 2025 53   Boise St. W 81-79 58%    
  Jan 20, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 92-75 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 104   @ UNLV W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 80-84 37%    
  Feb 05, 2025 99   Colorado St. W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 79-66 87%    
  Feb 12, 2025 177   Wyoming W 85-72 88%    
  Feb 16, 2025 52   Utah St. W 83-81 58%    
  Feb 19, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 78-82 37%    
  Feb 25, 2025 37   @ San Diego St. L 72-78 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 286   Air Force W 82-63 95%    
  Mar 04, 2025 48   @ Nevada L 74-78 35%    
  Mar 07, 2025 104   UNLV W 81-73 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.7 4.8 2.5 0.8 0.2 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.4 7.0 4.1 0.9 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.1 7.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 6.7 2.5 0.2 16.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 5.5 1.9 0.1 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.3 1.0 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.0 7.1 10.5 13.5 14.7 14.8 12.9 9.2 5.7 2.6 0.8 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 96.1% 2.5    2.3 0.2
17-3 83.8% 4.8    3.4 1.3 0.1
16-4 51.1% 4.7    2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 18.8% 2.4    0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.5 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 98.3% 44.0% 54.3% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0%
18-2 2.6% 92.3% 34.0% 58.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 88.3%
17-3 5.7% 82.2% 30.4% 51.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.0 74.4%
16-4 9.2% 61.5% 23.8% 37.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.8 0.1 3.5 49.5%
15-5 12.9% 42.5% 19.8% 22.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 0.3 7.4 28.3%
14-6 14.8% 25.9% 14.3% 11.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 0.3 11.0 13.5%
13-7 14.7% 15.7% 10.6% 5.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.4 12.4 5.7%
12-8 13.5% 8.5% 7.1% 1.4% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 12.3 1.6%
11-9 10.5% 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 9.9 0.3%
10-10 7.1% 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.9 0.1%
9-11 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
8-12 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
7-13 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.6% 13.4% 14.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 3.4 5.8 10.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 72.4 16.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 38.1 38.1 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 7.7 19.2 15.4 19.2 38.5