Gardner-Webb
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -18.4 363
Expected Predictive Rating -20.4 361
Pace 73.6 54
Improvement +1.4 135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 357 D D- D- D- B-
Defense F 360 F+ D- D+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 79 D 53% 306 +0.0 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 219 F+ 30% 358 -2.7 305
Three Pointers 41% 180 D+ 32% 277 -1.4 234
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 77 D- -4.8 330
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 307
Second Chance F+ 22.7% 348 D+ 0.95 299 D- 0.21 350
Turnovers D- 20.1% 340
Freethrows D 0.26 309 D 68% 316 D- 0.18 329
Total Offense F+ -9.4 357

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 29% 359 C- 12.0% 243
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 170 D 7.3% 310
Three Pointers C- 81% 253 B+ 0.1% 20
Total D- 46% 344 D+ 6.4% 266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 105 F+ 67% 360 +5.7 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 270 B- 36% 95 -1.2 101
Three Pointers 41% 190 D- 38% 346 +2.5 299
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 273 F+ +6.0 358
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.16 355
Second Chance F+ 35.9% 345 C- 1.07 247 D- 0.38 333
Turnovers D+ 14.9% 297
Freethrows C+ 0.29 151 D+ 74% 264 C 0.22 167
Total Defense F -9.0 360

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 234 D 7.0% 327
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 196 C- 4.2% 216
Three Pointers D- 90% 340 D 0.3% 315
Total D+ 60% 284 D 3.8% 318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 120 16.7 71
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 155 0.20 268
Improvement -0.3 #198 +1.7 #93

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 364 363 361
Conference Record 1 - 15 1 - 15 2 - 14
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 13.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 30 - 70 - 15
Quad 41 - 131 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 66 @Minnesota L 60 - 87 1% -25  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -11 F F+ C- D+ -4 F C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @Clemson L 59 - 97 0% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -21 D -6 C- D+ F F -16 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 203 @Elon L 84 - 95 5% -16  1% 0 - 3 D -11 C- -0 C+ D- D+ F+ -9 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 93 @DePaul L 62 - 93 1% -21  0% 0 - 4 F -22 F -14 F C- D- D+ -4 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 129 @Richmond L 67 - 102 3% -28  1% 0 - 5 F -30 F -11 B- F F F -17 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 155 Navy L 51 - 84 5% -16  0% 0 - 6 F -33 F -19 F F+ F F -15 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 28 281 SE Louisiana L 68 - 76 14% +2  63% 0 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -8 C- C+ F D -6 C- B- D-
 Sat, Nov 29 111 @UNC Wilmington L 62 - 88 2% -12  18% 0 - 8 F -19 F+ -10 C- F F F -10 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 204 @Queens L 74 - 107 5% -14  0% 0 - 9 F -33 F+ -10 F A B- F -22 F F D
 Sat, Dec 6 262 Georgia Southern L 84 - 88 18% -3  33% 0 - 10 D- -13 D+ -2 C+ D- D+ F -10 D- C- F
 Mon, Dec 15 230 Wofford L 57 - 83 14% -11  7% 0 - 11 F -33 F -24 F F F F+ -9 C F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 16 @Tennessee L 52 - 94 0% -26  11% 0 - 12 F -20 F -12 D D C- F+ -8 F C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 258 Charleston Southern L 79 - 89 18% +1  47% 0 - 13 0 - 1 F -18 D+ -4 F B+ D+ F -14 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 3 136 @Winthrop L 77 - 88 3% +5  72% 0 - 14 0 - 2 D+ -7 B- +5 A- F A+ F -12 F A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 89 @High Point L 49 - 104 1% -38  0% 0 - 15 0 - 3 F -46 F -30 F F+ F F+ -9 C- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 234 Radford L 80 - 89 14% -5  28% 0 - 16 0 - 4 F+ -16 C- -1 D+ C- A- F -15 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 272 Presbyterian L 55 - 92 20% -20  0% 0 - 17 0 - 5 F -46 F -24 F F+ F F -22 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 270 @Longwood L 56 - 91 9% -17  2% 0 - 18 0 - 6 F -38 F -19 F D F F -19 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 23 302 South Carolina Upstate W 67 - 65 24% -3  20% 1 - 18 1 - 6 D -9 D- -8 D- D+ D C -1 C+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 29 226 @UNC Asheville L 50 - 69 6% -12  0% 1 - 19 1 - 7 F -20 F -16 F D+ F D- -7 F C D
 Wed, Feb 4 270 Longwood L 66 - 86 19% -9  0% 1 - 20 1 - 8 F -29 F -13 D+ F F F -15 F A F
 Sat, Feb 7 272 @Presbyterian L 62 - 68 9% +0  51% 1 - 21 1 - 9 D -9 D- -8 B- F D+ C- -2 D- B- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 136 Winthrop L 85 - 103 7% -13  3% 1 - 22 1 - 10 F -20 C +0 A D F F -18 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 89 High Point L 87 - 112 3% -15  1% 1 - 23 1 - 11 F -22 C+ +2 A+ F A+ F -21 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 258 @Charleston Southern L 66 - 75 8% -10  0% 1 - 24 1 - 12 D- -11 F -14 C F D+ B- +3 A- D- F
 Thu, Feb 19 234 @Radford L 70 - 82 6% -12  8% 1 - 25 1 - 13 D- -13 D- -6 C- C+ D D- -7 C- F C+
 Thu, Feb 26 226 UNC Asheville L 67 - 79 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 @South Carolina Upstate L 68 - 81 11%
Totals 1 - 27 1 - 15 -18 F+ -9 C D- B- F -9 D+ D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D F+ D+ D- 42% 34% 41% B- D F+ D+ D- D- D D D- F F+ B- D- F+ 42% 18% 41% D+ F+ F+ C- D- D+ C+ D+ C
0.95 53% 30% 32% -5 +1 0.94 23% 0.9 .21 20% .26 68% .18 1.22 67% 36% 38% +6 +1 1.16 36% 1.1 .38 15% .29 74% .19
Nov
3		 Minnesota F D F B- F 37% 29% 33% C- F C- F F+ C- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ C- F 52% 13% 35% F+ F F B C- B+ F B- F
0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28 1.21 84% 17% 35% +12 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34
Nov
7		 Clemson D F A+ C- D 48% 9% 43% A+ C- D B- D+ F A+ F A+ F F A A+ B- 41% 5% 55% D- C+ F C- F F B+ A A-
0.84 38% 50% 32% -10 +2 0.86 18% 1.0 .18 23% .48 65% .32 1.39 81% 33% 26% +2 +2 1.11 46% 1.1 .51 4% .30 65% .19
Nov
15		 Elon C- A B- F+ C 42% 20% 38% C+ C+ B+ F D- D+ D- F F F+ D B- F F 33% 12% 55% B F C- F F A- F+ B+ D+
1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14 1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25
Nov
18		 DePaul F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% C+ F C+ D- C- D- F+ F F D+ F F B F 43% 18% 38% D F A+ C A C+ A F B
0.78 40% 23% 33% -10 -1 0.81 30% 0.8 .23 23% .24 53% .13 1.17 73% 64% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.2 .23 18% .24 81% .20
Nov
22		 Richmond F B+ F A+ A- 11% 36% 53% F B- F F+ F F F F+ F F F A- F F 32% 29% 39% C F F C F D B+ B+ A-
0.89 67% 21% 46% +5 -4 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 23% .19 64% .12 1.36 84% 29% 48% +14 -1 1.27 39% 1.0 .39 12% .27 72% .20
Nov
26		 Navy F C+ B+ F F 27% 23% 50% C F F C+ F+ F C- C C- F F B+ D- F+ 28% 26% 46% B+ D- F F F B C- F D-
0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18 1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29
Nov
28		 SE Louisiana F+ C F C+ D+ 38% 20% 43% C+ C- F A+ C+ F A+ D+ A D F C A+ C- 29% 22% 49% C C- D A B- D- F F F
0.95 60% 25% 35% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 29% .49 72% .36 1.06 79% 36% 21% -4 -1 0.92 31% 0.7 .22 15% .53 78% .41
Nov
29		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F A D+ 35% 14% 51% A C- D- F F F D+ B- C- F F B- F F 32% 21% 47% C- F A F C+ F A+ D+ A+
0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18 1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
3		 Queens F+ F F+ F+ F 40% 24% 36% D F B A A B- F+ A+ C F F F F F 36% 19% 45% B- F C- F F D B A+ A
1.01 27% 31% 30% -16 0 0.69 38% 1.3 .49 14% .28 89% .25 1.46 71% 64% 50% +20 0 1.43 31% 1.7 .52 14% .27 59% .16
Dec
6		 Georgia Southern D+ D+ F A+ C 60% 6% 33% A C+ F B D- D+ A+ A- A+ F B- F+ F D- 51% 7% 42% F+ D- B+ F C- F F B D-
1.12 55% 0% 44% +1 +3 1.10 24% 1.1 .28 20% .47 82% .38 1.18 50% 50% 39% 0 +3 1.07 23% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .28
Dec
15		 Wofford F D- A F F 48% 22% 30% C- F F D- F F C+ A+ B+ F+ B- C- C- C- 39% 20% 41% B C F F F C+ C- A C+
0.82 50% 50% 14% -10 +1 0.83 13% 1.0 .13 23% .32 88% .28 1.20 53% 40% 35% -1 0 1.00 49% 1.2 .57 16% .34 65% .22
Dec
21		 Tennessee F B+ F F D 30% 19% 52% C+ D F B- D C- F F F F+ F C F+ F 46% 9% 45% F F B- C C+ F A+ B A+
0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09 1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13
Dec
31		 Charleston Southern D+ F B C+ F 48% 13% 38% A F C- A+ B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F+ 48% 12% 40% D+ D- C- F F D F C- F
1.07 28% 43% 35% -13 +2 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 14% .52 88% .46 1.21 54% 67% 40% +5 +2 1.16 29% 1.4 .41 16% .50 68% .34
Jan
3		 Winthrop B- C A+ B+ A 27% 17% 56% C- A- F D F A+ C- F F+ F F A+ B- F 46% 13% 41% D+ F F A+ A D- F F+ F
1.14 57% 67% 38% +8 0 1.17 14% 1.0 .14 10% .31 58% .18 1.30 86% 0% 32% +6 +1 1.17 47% 0.5 .24 12% .54 81% .44
Jan
7		 High Point F F B F F 36% 13% 52% C+ F F A F+ F F F F F+ C+ F B+ C- 48% 12% 40% D+ C- F D F D C- C- C-
0.62 40% 43% 17% -19 +1 0.66 18% 1.3 .23 30% .11 33% .04 1.31 59% 71% 29% +1 +2 1.08 40% 1.3 .50 11% .37 77% .28
Jan
14		 Radford C- A F F D- 52% 8% 40% A- D+ F A+ C- A- A A A+ F C+ A+ F D+ 49% 13% 38% F+ D F A+ C- F F D+ F
1.13 69% 0% 25% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 14% .43 81% .35 1.26 56% 14% 43% +1 +2 1.07 43% 0.7 .31 11% .46 76% .35
Jan
17		 Presbyterian F F F D- F 34% 20% 45% D F F A- F+ F A F B- F D F F F 53% 26% 21% D- F C F D- F D+ F F+
0.79 47% 22% 30% -10 0 0.82 18% 1.2 .21 24% .38 60% .23 1.31 64% 50% 45% +10 0 1.23 32% 1.2 .39 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
21		 Longwood F F A+ F F 46% 17% 38% C+ F B F D F F F F F F F B+ F 37% 23% 40% C F F F F D- B+ F B-
0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14 1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21
Jan
23		 South Carolina Upstate D- F+ F C- F 60% 12% 29% A D- B- F D+ D F+ A- D C A+ A F C+ 43% 23% 34% C C+ C A B D+ F D F
1.01 48% 17% 33% -9 +3 0.90 34% 0.9 .31 18% .24 77% .18 0.98 40% 27% 44% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.7 .21 17% .40 73% .29
Jan
29		 UNC Asheville F F+ A+ F F 53% 6% 40% A F F+ B- D+ F F F F D- F A+ F F+ 26% 24% 50% F F F A C D F A D
0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09 1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Longwood F C- D D+ D- 53% 6% 40% A D+ D F F F B- F D+ F F C D F 58% 15% 26% F F A A A F C- A+ B
0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23 1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20
Feb
7		 Presbyterian D- C D+ A+ B- 54% 17% 29% B B- F+ F F D+ F+ F F C- F B A+ D- 51% 27% 22% D D- F A+ B- C+ F D+ F
0.98 58% 38% 43% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 17% .23 33% .08 1.07 74% 33% 20% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 21% .46 70% .32
Feb
12		 Winthrop C C+ C- A+ A- 49% 9% 42% A A D- C+ D F C- F D- F C F F F 44% 2% 55% F F F F F C+ F+ C F+
1.11 59% 40% 43% +7 +2 1.20 23% 1.1 .26 21% .31 63% .20 1.34 54% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.27 42% 1.3 .53 16% .43 75% .32
Feb
14		 High Point C+ C A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A- A+ F F F A+ A- F C+ F F F F F 33% 10% 57% C+ F F A F A+ F F F
1.11 60% 67% 50% +12 +2 1.31 0% 0.0 .00 13% .38 62% .24 1.43 79% 67% 39% +14 +1 1.33 52% 0.9 .48 20% .47 90% .42
Feb
17		 Charleston Southern F A- F+ F C- 43% 17% 40% B+ C F F F D+ F B- F B- B+ A+ B+ A+ 59% 7% 34% F A- C+ F D- F D- C+ D
0.89 65% 30% 25% -4 +1 0.97 18% 0.1 .02 13% .17 73% .12 1.01 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.90 28% 1.2 .33 13% .31 65% .20
Feb
19		 Radford D- B- B+ F C- 53% 18% 29% B- C- F+ A+ C+ D F F F D- F A+ C+ C- 31% 10% 58% C- C- D F F C+ F+ F F
1.01 63% 44% 27% +1 +1 1.06 24% 1.6 .38 20% .25 57% .15 1.19 73% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.3 .42 19% .43 92% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.6 0.6 8th
9th 78.1 20.2 1.1 99.4 9th
Total 78.1 20.2 1.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 20.2% 20.2
1-15 78.1% 78.1
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 68.3%