Gardner-Webb
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#216
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#250
Pace66.8#245
Improvement+2.0#48

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#243
First Shot-3.4#277
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#119
Layup/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
Freethrows-4.1#352
Improvement-0.2#210

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#162
First Shot-1.2#220
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#89
Layups/Dunks+2.5#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#208
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#218
Freethrows-2.4#298
Improvement+2.3#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 16.7% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 66.3% 79.9% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 89.7% 82.9%
Conference Champion 18.0% 22.1% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
First Four4.0% 3.3% 4.5%
First Round12.2% 15.3% 10.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 413 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 168   @ UNLV L 58-64 31%     0 - 1 -2.9 -14.1 +11.3
  Nov 13, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 69-86 5%     0 - 2 -0.6 +3.6 -4.1
  Nov 16, 2021 8   @ Duke L 52-92 3%     0 - 3 -19.6 -13.1 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2021 296   Western Carolina W 87-59 79%     1 - 3 +17.4 +11.6 +7.4
  Nov 29, 2021 334   NC Central W 83-58 89%     2 - 3 +9.4 +1.1 +7.3
  Dec 04, 2021 172   @ East Carolina L 52-62 32%     2 - 4 -7.2 -19.1 +11.9
  Dec 08, 2021 124   Wofford L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 11, 2021 227   @ VMI L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 15, 2021 334   @ NC Central W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 29, 2021 150   @ Georgia L 66-72 28%    
  Jan 05, 2022 342   @ Charleston Southern W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 08, 2022 333   Hampton W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 12, 2022 276   Presbyterian W 66-59 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 218   @ Longwood L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 19, 2022 335   South Carolina Upstate W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 22, 2022 157   @ Winthrop L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 26, 2022 255   @ UNC Asheville L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 253   Radford W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 02, 2022 263   @ High Point W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 284   N.C. A&T W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 09, 2022 171   @ Campbell L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 342   Charleston Southern W 79-65 90%    
  Feb 16, 2022 157   Winthrop W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 276   @ Presbyterian W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 255   UNC Asheville W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 335   @ South Carolina Upstate W 73-65 75%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.0 4.9 2.1 0.4 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.9 2.7 0.2 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.9 6.8 2.3 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 5.8 2.4 0.2 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.7 0.2 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.1 7.0 10.4 13.6 15.7 15.4 13.5 9.3 5.4 2.1 0.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 99.1% 2.1    2.0 0.1
14-2 91.3% 4.9    3.8 1.0 0.1
13-3 64.2% 6.0    3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0
12-4 28.0% 3.8    0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 5.1% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 10.2 5.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 45.5% 45.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.1% 39.7% 39.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.3
14-2 5.4% 33.4% 33.4% 14.7 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 3.6
13-3 9.3% 26.6% 26.6% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 6.8
12-4 13.5% 21.3% 21.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 10.6
11-5 15.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 13.1
10-6 15.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 14.0
9-7 13.6% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0 12.5
8-8 10.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.9
7-9 7.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 6.8
6-10 4.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.0
5-11 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-12 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-13 0.3% 0.3
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.4 7.9 85.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 4.0 16.0 48.0 16.0 16.0