Gardner-Webb
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#192
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#230
Pace65.9#250
Improvement+0.6#116

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#307
First Shot-3.6#298
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#249
Layup/Dunks+2.2#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#321
Freethrows-1.4#285
Improvement+0.8#54

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#87
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#40
Layups/Dunks+4.8#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#213
Freethrows-1.5#287
Improvement-0.2#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 19.0% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 73.4% 78.1% 42.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.2% 92.5%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.5% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.3% 5.9% 9.1%
First Round15.9% 16.6% 11.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 413 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 113   @ Colorado St. L 63-65 24%     0 - 1 +4.1 -8.3 +12.4
  Nov 10, 2022 135   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-86 29%     0 - 2 -10.4 +2.2 -12.8
  Nov 15, 2022 26   @ North Carolina L 66-72 7%     0 - 3 +9.6 -0.9 +10.6
  Nov 18, 2022 215   @ Wofford L 58-60 44%     0 - 4 -1.5 -13.4 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2022 277   N.C. A&T W 66-64 68%     1 - 4 -3.9 -8.0 +4.1
  Nov 26, 2022 254   @ NC Central L 53-58 53%     1 - 5 -7.1 -18.7 +11.5
  Nov 30, 2022 260   @ Western Carolina W 71-55 55%     2 - 5 +13.4 +6.4 +9.3
  Dec 03, 2022 164   Chattanooga L 71-82 55%     2 - 6 -13.5 -9.1 -4.0
  Dec 10, 2022 176   @ Old Dominion L 43-44 36%     2 - 7 +1.5 -26.1 +27.6
  Dec 17, 2022 254   NC Central W 72-70 73%     3 - 7 -5.5 -5.4 -0.2
  Dec 29, 2022 280   Charleston Southern W 83-63 77%     4 - 7 1 - 0 +11.0 +6.7 +5.7
  Dec 31, 2022 304   @ High Point W 80-73 65%     5 - 7 2 - 0 +2.0 +2.1 -0.4
  Jan 04, 2023 255   @ Campbell L 58-63 53%     5 - 8 2 - 1 -7.1 -9.5 +1.8
  Jan 07, 2023 178   Radford L 59-63 57%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -7.0 -6.1 -1.5
  Jan 11, 2023 330   @ Presbyterian W 79-78 OT 72%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -6.3 +0.6 -6.9
  Jan 14, 2023 188   UNC Asheville L 67-72 OT 60%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -8.9 -11.6 +3.1
  Jan 18, 2023 181   @ Longwood L 59-64 37%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -2.7 -8.0 +5.0
  Jan 21, 2023 244   @ Winthrop W 63-61 51%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +0.4 -7.2 +7.9
  Jan 25, 2023 306   South Carolina Upstate W 78-66 82%     8 - 11 5 - 4 +1.3 +10.3 -7.6
  Jan 28, 2023 304   High Point W 86-58 81%     9 - 11 6 - 4 +17.5 +12.3 +6.7
  Feb 01, 2023 280   @ Charleston Southern W 67-59 59%     10 - 11 7 - 4 +4.4 -8.6 +13.5
  Feb 04, 2023 330   Presbyterian W 68-56 87%    
  Feb 08, 2023 178   @ Radford L 60-64 36%    
  Feb 11, 2023 255   Campbell W 65-59 73%    
  Feb 15, 2023 244   Winthrop W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 188   @ UNC Asheville L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 181   Longwood W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 306   @ South Carolina Upstate W 66-62 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.4 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 7.0 8.3 0.8 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 12.7 17.1 2.8 0.0 34.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 11.9 14.6 2.9 0.0 31.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 4.3 0.6 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.5 6.8 18.2 28.7 27.4 14.0 3.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 74.8% 2.4    1.1 1.2 0.2
13-5 21.2% 3.0    0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2
12-6 1.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 1.5 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.2% 32.7% 32.7% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.2
13-5 14.0% 26.2% 26.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 2.6 0.8 10.4
12-6 27.4% 20.8% 20.8% 15.4 0.1 3.1 2.5 21.7
11-7 28.7% 16.8% 16.8% 15.9 0.4 4.4 23.8
10-8 18.2% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3 15.8
9-9 6.8% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.1
8-10 1.5% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 1.4
7-11 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.8 6.7 10.9 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 32.7% 14.6 1.1 12.8 17.2 1.6
Lose Out 0.1% 4.8% 16.0 4.8