Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#326
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#150
Pace64.8#295
Improvement-2.6#321

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#235
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#247
Layup/Dunks-6.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#53
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#55
Freethrows-1.7#271
Improvement-2.8#353

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#355
First Shot-4.0#304
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#341
Layups/Dunks-6.4#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#226
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement+0.2#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.1% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 22.2% 32.5% 14.5%
.500 or above in Conference 28.3% 33.7% 24.2%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.6% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 27.0% 22.4% 30.4%
First Four2.3% 2.5% 2.1%
First Round2.0% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 42 - 7
Quad 411 - 1113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 61-85 2%     0 - 1 -8.5 -2.8 -6.8
  Nov 08, 2024 91   @ Rhode Island L 77-91 6%     0 - 2 -5.1 +3.8 -8.2
  Nov 15, 2024 269   Sacred Heart W 82-75 37%     1 - 2 +1.0 +15.6 -13.7
  Nov 16, 2024 164   @ Brown W 73-65 14%     2 - 2 +10.4 +5.3 +5.7
  Nov 17, 2024 350   New Hampshire W 74-72 63%     3 - 2 -10.6 +6.1 -16.5
  Nov 24, 2024 211   @ Maine L 55-80 18%     3 - 3 -24.4 -12.6 -12.4
  Nov 29, 2024 90   @ Virginia L 41-67 6%     3 - 4 -17.1 -16.5 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2024 241   Harvard W 68-67 42%     4 - 4 -6.3 -3.0 -3.2
  Dec 07, 2024 240   Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 43%    
  Dec 17, 2024 245   @ Quinnipiac L 70-78 24%    
  Dec 20, 2024 302   @ Siena L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 02, 2025 335   Loyola Maryland W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 05, 2025 236   @ American L 64-72 22%    
  Jan 08, 2025 305   Navy W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Lafayette L 63-71 22%    
  Jan 15, 2025 260   @ Bucknell L 66-73 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 236   American L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 282   Army W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 335   @ Loyola Maryland L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 27, 2025 268   @ Boston University L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 251   Lehigh L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 05, 2025 282   @ Army L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 268   Boston University L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 246   Colgate L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 251   @ Lehigh L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 19, 2025 231   Lafayette L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 23, 2025 305   @ Navy L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 246   @ Colgate L 66-74 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 260   Bucknell L 69-70 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 3.3 0.9 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.5 1.4 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.7 2.4 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.0 3.8 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 4.9 0.7 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 6.2 4.6 1.0 0.0 16.8 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 2.9 4.8 5.1 3.1 0.8 0.0 18.2 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.0 9.2 11.8 13.6 14.1 12.5 10.0 7.4 5.2 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 96.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 80.7% 0.6    0.4 0.1
13-5 57.5% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 23.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 4.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 43.6% 43.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 29.0% 29.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 19.0% 19.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.6% 17.3% 17.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.3
12-6 3.0% 13.2% 13.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6
11-7 5.2% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.7
10-8 7.4% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 6.9
9-9 10.0% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.5
8-10 12.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 12.1
7-11 14.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 13.8
6-12 13.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.5
5-13 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.8
4-14 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.1
3-15 6.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-16 3.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.0 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%