Holy Cross
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#326
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#255
Pace65.1#296
Improvement-3.3#344

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#285
First Shot+0.5#164
After Offensive Rebound-4.7#363
Layup/Dunks-6.1#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#78
Freethrows-0.7#230
Improvement-0.6#223

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#338
First Shot-8.2#363
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#23
Layups/Dunks-8.4#362
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#266
Freethrows+1.6#79
Improvement-2.7#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.1% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 8.5% 12.5% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.4% 43.7% 20.3%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.3% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 21.5% 13.6% 31.6%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 2.0%
First Round1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 56.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 410 - 1211 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 78 @Providence L 79-89 4%     0 - 1 +0.1 -0.1 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 8 11 @BYU L 53-98 1%     0 - 2 -22.4 -11.5 -9.7
  Mon, Nov 10 111 @Utah L 69-87 7%     0 - 3 -11.4 -1.8 -9.9
  Sun, Nov 16 238 Hampton W 67-61 30%     1 - 3 +1.4 +4.5 -1.9
  Tue, Nov 18 226 @Brown L 49-68 20%     1 - 4 -20.0 -13.2 -9.5
  Fri, Nov 21 250 @Sacred Heart L 66-79 23%     1 - 5 -15.1 -5.8 -10.0
  Mon, Nov 24 179 Siena L 69-73 30%     1 - 6 -8.4 +0.8 -9.5
  Wed, Dec 3 205 Northeastern W 76-59 35%     2 - 6 +11.1 +4.4 +7.6
  Sat, Dec 6 193 @Fordham W 70-69 16%     3 - 6 +1.9 +5.5 -3.4
  Tue, Dec 16 247 Dartmouth L 64-89 43%     3 - 7 -32.9 -9.3 -24.6
  Sat, Dec 20 192 @Harvard L 53-81 16%     3 - 8 -27.1 -11.2 -19.9
  Wed, Dec 31 308 Bucknell W 71-69 56%    
  Sat, Jan 3 203 Navy L 68-72 35%    
  Wed, Jan 7 315 @Lehigh L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 268 @American L 70-77 26%    
  Wed, Jan 14 331 Army W 73-70 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 321 @Lafayette L 70-73 38%    
  Wed, Jan 21 203 @Navy L 65-75 17%    
  Sat, Jan 24 268 American L 73-74 47%    
  Wed, Jan 28 181 @Colgate L 66-77 15%    
  Sat, Jan 31 331 @Army L 70-73 41%    
  Mon, Feb 2 288 Boston University L 71-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 315 Lehigh W 72-70 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 181 Colgate L 69-74 31%    
  Sun, Feb 15 329 @Loyola Maryland L 73-76 39%    
  Wed, Feb 18 321 Lafayette W 73-70 60%    
  Sun, Feb 22 308 @Bucknell L 68-72 34%    
  Wed, Feb 25 288 @Boston University L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 329 Loyola Maryland W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.1 6.3 2.4 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 3.1 0.2 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.4 3.9 0.4 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 4.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 13.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.4 10.9 13.4 14.3 13.6 11.7 8.9 6.2 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 89.3% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-4 75.2% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 36.5% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 25.3% 25.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 14.4% 14.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.9% 12.9% 12.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.6
12-6 3.6% 8.7% 8.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.3
11-7 6.2% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 5.7
10-8 8.9% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.6 8.3
9-9 11.7% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.5 11.2
8-10 13.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 13.2
7-11 14.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.1
6-12 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-13 10.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-14 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%