Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 263
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 281
Pace 70.6 125
Improvement +4.5 29

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #279 D+ C- D- C+ C-
Defense C- #225 D- B B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 170 59% 157 +0.4 159
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 122 36% 253 +0.4 149
Three Pointers 38% 244 29% 340 -4.3 319
1st FG Attempt 0.95 284 -3.4 286
Second Chance 32.4% 127 0.92 310 0.30 205
Turnovers 20.2% 342
Freethrows 0.32 129 74% 119 0.24 120
Total Offense -4.0 279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 67% 354 -4.4 325
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 345 39% 216 +2.2 33
Three Pointers 45% 59 35% 236 -3.1 310
1st FG Attempt 1.12 335 -5.3 335
Second Chance 29.0% 110 0.90 29 0.26 56
Turnovers 18.6% 85
Freethrows 0.35 311 71% 94 0.25 293
Total Defense -1.6 225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 234 +0.9 327
Shot Type Accuracy -3.1 293 +4.2 326
Possession Length 16.9 126 17.4 206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 247 0.18 207
Improvement -0.4 #207 +4.8 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.1% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 13.6% 22.3% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 52.0% 71.7% 31.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round2.0% 2.4% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 51.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 98 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 10% -5  5% 0 - 1 D -10 F -12 F D- A+ B- +2 D B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 220 James Madison W 82 - 72 52% +8  86% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +2 F+ D B C+ +2 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 361 Binghamton W 90 - 82 90% +14  92% 2 - 1 D- -12 C +0 D C+ D- F -12 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 349 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 82% -3  15% 2 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -9 F B F D -7 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 202 @Columbia L 70 - 95 28% -13  1% 2 - 3 F -25 F+ -8 B+ F F F -15 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 28 181 Siena L 63 - 70 34% -3  26% 2 - 4 D -8 F -11 F B+ F B- +3 F A B
 Sat, Nov 29 341 Maine W 65 - 61 72% +3  85% 3 - 4 D+ -8 D -6 A F F C -1 C F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 254 @American L 66 - 92 37% -8  25% 3 - 5 F -28 F -12 F F A F -16 F F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 352 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 69% +1  53% 4 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 D B+ F D+ -4 F+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 359 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 87% -5  8% 4 - 6 F -23 C +1 C+ D+ F F -24 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 71 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 7% -2  22% 4 - 7 B- +8 D -5 F B- B+ A+ +13 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 344 @NC Central W 74 - 72 62% +2  66% 5 - 7 D+ -7 D- -6 F+ B- F C -0 C B D+
 Wed, Dec 31 131 Winthrop W 82 - 70 33% +7  93% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B +11 B+ +8 B+ A+ D B- +3 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 96 @High Point L 67 - 80 10% -7  3% 6 - 8 1 - 1 C- -5 D+ -3 C+ C C- C- -3 D+ C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 214 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  1% 6 - 9 1 - 2 D -11 F+ -8 F+ D- C+ D+ -4 D- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 271 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 64% +10  97% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -2 B +6 B+ B+ C- D- -7 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 232 @Radford L 83 - 85 33% -11  0% 7 - 10 2 - 3 C- -3 B +6 C+ A+ D- F+ -9 F A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  96% 8 - 10 3 - 3 B+ +14 B +5 C+ A+ D- A- +8 B- C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 260 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 61% +6  82% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -7 F+ -10 C- F F B- +3 D B- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 298 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 47% -2  24% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D -10 F -16 F+ D F B+ +6 F+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 96 High Point L 59 - 71 23% -6  17% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D -10 F -11 F+ D+ F C+ +0 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 82% +9  99% 10 - 12 5 - 5 C+ +5 C+ +2 A- F C- C+ +2 F A- A
 Sat, Feb 7 131 @Winthrop L 74 - 79 16% -2  20% 10 - 13 5 - 6 C -0 D- -7 F D- B- B+ +7 A- A B+
 Thu, Feb 12 214 UNC Asheville W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 298 South Carolina Upstate W 75 - 70 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 271 @Presbyterian L 69 - 71 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 @Charleston Southern L 75 - 78 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 Radford W 79 - 78 56%
Totals 13 - 15 8 - 8 -6 D+ -4 D+ C- D- C- -2 D- B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- D- D+ 39% 23% 38% C- D+ C+ D C- D- C+ C+ C+ C- F+ C C- D- 40% 14% 45% D D- C+ B+ B B- D B- D+
1.03 59% 36% 29% -3 0 0.95 32% 0.9 .30 20% .32 74% .24 1.11 67% 39% 35% +4 +1 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 19% .35 71% .23
Nov
7		 Pittsburgh F F F F F 53% 16% 32% B+ F C- F D- A+ F+ A+ D B- F A+ F D- 20% 18% 61% A- D B B B+ B+ F C- F
0.86 40% 22% 22% -17 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19 1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43
Nov
12		 James Madison C+ D A- F F+ 43% 20% 37% C F+ B F D B A+ A+ A+ C+ D- A+ B C 46% 10% 44% F C- A+ B- A D+ D+ A+ B
1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 0 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57 1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
15		 Binghamton C A+ F F D 37% 13% 50% C D B+ D C+ D- A+ B+ A+ F F F B+ F 44% 10% 46% F F F F F A+ F+ D+ F+
1.21 84% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .48 77% .36 1.11 71% 60% 27% +4 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 28% .43 78% .34
Nov
18		 Maryland Eastern Shore F+ F+ D- F F 46% 27% 27% D+ F A- D+ B F A+ A+ A+ D F B F+ F 33% 22% 44% C- F F A+ B- A+ D A+ B+
1.02 50% 31% 23% -10 0 0.81 41% 1.1 .43 24% .55 88% .49 1.03 89% 33% 38% +12 -1 1.24 44% 0.5 .23 30% .26 47% .12
Nov
23		 Columbia F+ F A+ A+ A- 44% 27% 29% D+ B+ F F F F C- F D F C+ B- F F 28% 16% 56% B+ F C- F+ D- D A- D+ B+
0.97 43% 64% 47% +6 0 1.13 19% 0.2 .03 21% .30 65% .19 1.31 56% 33% 53% +15 0 1.32 37% 1.1 .40 19% .21 75% .15
Nov
28		 Siena F B F F F 30% 30% 40% D- F B- B+ B+ F B A+ A B- F F C F 33% 20% 48% D- F A+ C- A B F A+ D
0.93 64% 29% 26% -6 -2 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 28% .33 81% .27 1.04 80% 56% 32% +9 0 1.20 17% 1.0 .17 19% .40 59% .24
Nov
29		 Maine D A A+ A A+ 37% 37% 26% F A C- F F F A+ F A- C A- F B- C 40% 17% 43% D C F F F C+ C+ A+ A-
1.01 71% 50% 40% +12 -2 1.21 37% 0.7 .26 30% .47 62% .29 0.95 47% 50% 30% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.3 .36 22% .30 47% .14
Nov
30		 American F C- F F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C- F F A A+ B A+ F F B F+ F 33% 12% 55% C F C+ F F+ C- F F F
0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52 1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45
Dec
6		 Morgan St. D+ D F A+ D 46% 18% 36% D+ D C- A+ B+ F A+ D- A+ D+ C F A D- 44% 19% 37% F F+ A C+ B+ C C- F F
1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49 1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33
Dec
13		 Delaware St. C A+ A+ F C+ 38% 16% 47% C- C+ B+ F D+ F B+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% F F B+ A+ A F F C F
1.14 82% 57% 24% +5 +1 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 24% .39 90% .36 1.21 62% 46% 67% +17 0 1.35 19% 0.4 .07 13% .43 68% .29
Dec
17		 Wake Forest D D- F F F 35% 12% 54% B- F D+ A B- B+ B- C+ B A+ C- F A+ A 38% 17% 45% C- A- A+ A+ A+ C- F B F
0.93 50% 17% 25% -12 +1 0.79 28% 1.3 .35 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 61% 63% 19% -5 0 0.94 17% 0.8 .14 14% .48 73% .35
Dec
20		 NC Central D- B- A F F+ 38% 18% 44% C F+ A- D+ B- F A+ C- A+ C F A- A+ C 40% 23% 36% C C B+ C+ B D+ F D- F
1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32 1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41
Dec
31		 Winthrop B+ C+ F+ A+ B 52% 13% 35% A B+ A+ C+ A+ D B+ D+ B B- A+ A A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% F+ A+ F+ A+ B- D- F D+ F
1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27 1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
3		 High Point D+ B F C C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ C+ C C C- F+ D- F+ C- F A A+ C- 51% 8% 41% F+ D+ A F C- B- D D+ D-
1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16 1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30
Jan
7		 UNC Asheville F+ C+ F D F+ 42% 17% 42% C F+ D F+ D- C+ B+ D B- D+ D+ B+ F D- 35% 26% 39% F D- F A+ B+ D D A C-
0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24 1.13 63% 33% 44% +7 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24
Jan
10		 Presbyterian B B- C A+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ A- C B+ C- D A+ B- D- F+ D+ F F 43% 11% 45% F F A B+ A C+ C+ B+ B-
1.22 62% 40% 44% +8 0 1.18 39% 1.0 .39 16% .26 86% .23 1.11 68% 40% 40% +9 +2 1.23 24% 0.9 .21 21% .32 63% .20
Jan
17		 Radford B C A- A- B 34% 26% 40% F+ C+ A- A+ A+ D- C- D- D F+ F A+ F F 40% 16% 44% C- F B A+ A D+ F A F
1.19 59% 46% 40% +6 -1 1.12 41% 1.4 .56 22% .33 67% .22 1.22 80% 25% 41% +11 +1 1.26 25% 0.6 .16 16% .53 65% .34
Jan
21		 Gardner-Webb B A+ A+ F B- 37% 23% 40% D C+ A+ A A+ D- D+ A C A- A F A- B- 46% 17% 38% C- B- F A+ C+ A+ B- A+ B+
1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21 0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14
Jan
23		 Charleston Southern F+ D- B- B C- 51% 33% 16% C- C- F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ B- B B- F D 35% 6% 59% D D C- A- B- A+ F+ C+ D-
0.99 46% 41% 38% -4 -1 0.92 21% 0.9 .18 21% .52 82% .43 0.97 53% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.13 30% 0.7 .21 27% .33 65% .22
Jan
29		 South Carolina Upstate F C B F F+ 41% 22% 37% D+ F+ B- F D F F F F B+ F+ A+ D D- 52% 8% 40% F F+ C+ A+ A A+ C- A+ A-
0.85 59% 42% 20% -6 0 0.89 34% 0.8 .26 24% .17 44% .07 0.92 64% 0% 37% +2 +3 1.10 27% 0.5 .14 26% .31 44% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 High Point F B- F D F+ 34% 23% 43% D F+ B- F D+ F F B+ F+ C+ D+ A+ B B- 50% 7% 43% F+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- D+ F+ D-
0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16 1.12 65% 0% 30% -1 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31
Feb
4		 Gardner-Webb C+ A+ C C B+ 58% 15% 26% A- A- F F F C- B F C C+ D C C+ F+ 53% 6% 40% F F C- A+ A- A F A D-
1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20 0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23
Feb
7		 Winthrop D- A F F F+ 25% 31% 43% F F D+ F+ D- B- A+ F A+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 32% 11% 57% C A- A+ F A B+ F F F
0.96 69% 31% 23% -6 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34 1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 11.1 3.8 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 16.7 5.8 24.7 4th
5th 1.9 18.3 11.2 0.1 31.5 5th
6th 0.5 9.8 9.0 0.6 20.0 6th
7th 1.5 3.3 0.2 5.0 7th
8th 1.1 0.2 1.3 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.1 15.2 29.7 31.1 17.0 3.8 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 3.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
9-7 17.0% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.2 0.4 16.4
8-8 31.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 30.1
7-9 29.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.6 29.1
6-10 15.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.0
5-11 3.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.9 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.1 16.2 62.2 21.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 0.8%