Longwood
Big South
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#209
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#280
Pace63.2#316
Improvement-0.5#229

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#240
First Shot-5.7#324
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#24
Layup/Dunks-3.9#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#58
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
Freethrows-4.2#350
Improvement-0.7#253

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#164
First Shot-0.7#199
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#116
Layups/Dunks+0.8#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#306
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#221
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement+0.2#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 18.2% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 80.5% 92.3% 76.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.4% 89.9% 82.7%
Conference Champion 17.3% 21.9% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Four4.0% 3.1% 4.3%
First Round12.0% 16.8% 10.5%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 23.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 415 - 617 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 73-106 4%     0 - 1 -15.4 -1.6 -11.6
  Nov 19, 2021 321   American W 82-42 82%     1 - 1 +28.0 +12.0 +20.9
  Nov 20, 2021 210   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 82-55 62%     2 - 1 +21.9 +10.2 +13.4
  Nov 21, 2021 301   Western Carolina L 53-64 80%     2 - 2 -21.8 -24.4 +2.0
  Nov 26, 2021 234   @ Old Dominion L 61-62 44%     2 - 3 -1.5 -0.7 -0.9
  Nov 30, 2021 134   @ Georgetown L 64-71 23%    
  Dec 04, 2021 356   Delaware St. W 81-61 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 315   Morgan St. W 73-63 82%    
  Dec 19, 2021 332   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 143   @ Abilene Christian L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 30, 2021 351   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-58 84%    
  Jan 05, 2022 338   @ Hampton W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 08, 2022 285   High Point W 66-58 75%    
  Jan 12, 2022 247   @ Radford L 61-62 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 187   Gardner-Webb W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 19, 2022 182   Campbell W 60-58 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 283   @ Presbyterian W 62-61 55%    
  Jan 26, 2022 279   N.C. A&T W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 29, 2022 146   Winthrop L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 02, 2022 271   @ UNC Asheville W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 348   @ Charleston Southern W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 334   South Carolina Upstate W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 279   @ N.C. A&T W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 16, 2022 285   @ High Point W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 338   Hampton W 72-59 88%    
  Feb 23, 2022 247   Radford W 65-59 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 182   @ Campbell L 57-61 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 5.2 2.6 0.6 17.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.7 6.9 3.9 0.9 0.0 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.7 6.4 2.9 0.3 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.9 2.6 0.2 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.6 3.5 2.6 0.3 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.4 4.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.0 7.5 10.7 12.7 14.6 14.6 13.4 9.3 6.0 2.6 0.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 99.2% 2.6    2.4 0.2
14-2 85.8% 5.2    3.8 1.3 0.1
13-3 55.4% 5.2    2.5 2.2 0.5 0.1
12-4 24.9% 3.3    0.8 1.4 0.9 0.2
11-5 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 10.0 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 40.4% 40.4% 13.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-1 2.6% 41.1% 41.1% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.5
14-2 6.0% 30.5% 30.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 4.2
13-3 9.3% 27.5% 27.5% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 6.8
12-4 13.4% 21.5% 21.5% 15.6 0.1 1.0 1.8 10.5
11-5 14.6% 13.7% 13.7% 15.8 0.3 1.7 12.6
10-6 14.6% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.2 1.3 13.1
9-7 12.7% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 11.6
8-8 10.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 10.3
7-9 7.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-10 4.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-11 2.4% 2.4
4-12 1.1% 1.1
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.2 7.8 86.2 0.0%