Longwood
Big South
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#202
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#102
Pace69.8#162
Improvement-3.0#339

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#216
First Shot-3.3#271
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks+2.9#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#359
Freethrows+4.6#11
Improvement+0.2#166

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot-3.2#285
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#23
Layups/Dunks-7.5#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#33
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+2.1#67
Improvement-3.1#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 13.7% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 82.3% 87.2% 67.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 72.2% 61.7%
Conference Champion 15.4% 16.7% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.1% 5.7%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round12.4% 13.5% 8.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 75.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 340   Morgan St. W 84-66 87%     1 - 0 +3.8 +0.9 +2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-62 57%     2 - 0 +10.2 -11.1 +19.4
  Nov 16, 2024 328   Tennessee Martin W 64-62 84%     3 - 0 -10.4 -11.4 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 322   @ Binghamton W 66-60 65%     4 - 0 +0.0 -0.2 +1.1
  Nov 22, 2024 124   UAB W 89-81 34%     5 - 0 +10.2 +11.2 -1.2
  Nov 24, 2024 95   McNeese St. L 69-84 24%     5 - 1 -9.4 -1.8 -7.6
  Nov 25, 2024 59   Kansas St. L 64-80 15%     5 - 2 -6.6 -3.9 -2.7
  Dec 05, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-76 92%     6 - 2 -13.2 +0.2 -13.4
  Dec 14, 2024 281   NC Central W 75-68 76%    
  Dec 18, 2024 278   @ Campbell W 68-67 56%    
  Dec 20, 2024 281   @ NC Central W 72-71 55%    
  Dec 29, 2024 62   @ SMU L 70-84 10%    
  Jan 02, 2025 248   @ Presbyterian L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 276   Charleston Southern W 75-68 75%    
  Jan 08, 2025 193   UNC Asheville W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 179   @ Winthrop L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 15, 2025 141   High Point W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 22, 2025 189   @ Radford L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 343   South Carolina Upstate W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 29, 2025 221   @ Gardner-Webb L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 276   @ Charleston Southern W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 189   Radford W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 141   @ High Point L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 248   Presbyterian W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 221   Gardner-Webb W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 193   @ UNC Asheville L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 179   Winthrop W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 343   @ South Carolina Upstate W 81-74 72%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.9 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.6 6.7 1.9 0.2 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.6 6.7 1.8 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.4 3.8 6.6 2.0 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.5 2.0 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.1 1.8 0.1 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.5 8.6 11.7 14.0 15.3 14.2 11.0 7.8 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-2 97.9% 2.0    1.9 0.2
13-3 87.8% 4.0    3.1 0.8 0.0
12-4 63.1% 4.9    2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0
11-5 27.8% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 9.1 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.7% 38.0% 38.0% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.0% 37.0% 37.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3
13-3 4.5% 29.5% 29.5% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2
12-4 7.8% 24.1% 24.1% 13.8 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.9
11-5 11.0% 20.5% 20.5% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.0 8.7
10-6 14.2% 14.5% 14.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 12.2
9-7 15.3% 11.1% 11.1% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 13.6
8-8 14.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 12.9
7-9 11.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 11.0
6-10 8.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.1 0.3 8.3
5-11 5.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.4
4-12 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.7
3-13 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-14 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.0 4.3 1.6 87.4 0.0%