Longwood
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#181
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#213
Pace65.6#263
Improvement-0.8#282

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#200
First Shot-0.7#207
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#180
Layup/Dunks-3.3#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows+1.5#73
Improvement-1.0#315

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#161
First Shot-1.1#218
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#57
Layups/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#303
Freethrows+0.0#189
Improvement+0.1#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 25.7% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.8% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.8% 96.9%
Conference Champion 7.8% 9.7% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 1.9% 3.9%
First Round23.6% 24.9% 19.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 416 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 2   @ Alabama L 54-75 3%     0 - 1 +0.8 -12.8 +15.8
  Nov 11, 2022 122   @ George Mason L 69-83 29%     0 - 2 -8.6 +0.7 -9.5
  Nov 18, 2022 335   VMI W 90-58 88%     1 - 2 +18.8 +11.0 +8.7
  Nov 19, 2022 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 99-83 83%     2 - 2 +5.3 +19.3 -13.6
  Nov 20, 2022 238   SIU Edwardsville L 56-61 72%     2 - 3 -11.7 -16.9 +5.2
  Nov 28, 2022 216   @ San Diego L 68-71 46%     2 - 4 -2.5 -8.5 +5.9
  Dec 03, 2022 356   @ Delaware St. W 75-49 85%     3 - 4 +14.2 +2.3 +14.0
  Dec 10, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. L 63-81 26%     3 - 5 -11.6 -2.7 -9.3
  Dec 13, 2022 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 63-57 81%     4 - 5 -3.7 -10.2 +6.8
  Dec 17, 2022 301   @ The Citadel W 75-70 67%     5 - 5 +0.0 +6.7 -6.3
  Dec 20, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 104-77 93%     6 - 5 +9.9 +16.6 -7.8
  Dec 29, 2022 304   High Point W 87-73 83%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +3.5 +6.5 -3.4
  Dec 31, 2022 255   @ Campbell W 67-42 56%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +22.9 -0.6 +26.0
  Jan 04, 2023 280   @ Charleston Southern W 79-74 62%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +1.4 +4.6 -2.9
  Jan 07, 2023 244   Winthrop W 85-71 74%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +7.0 +4.5 +2.4
  Jan 12, 2023 188   @ UNC Asheville L 46-54 42%     10 - 6 4 - 1 -6.4 -23.1 +16.3
  Jan 14, 2023 306   South Carolina Upstate W 72-65 83%     11 - 6 5 - 1 -3.7 -6.1 +2.3
  Jan 18, 2023 192   Gardner-Webb W 64-59 63%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +1.1 -2.5 +3.9
  Jan 21, 2023 330   @ Presbyterian W 58-56 74%     13 - 6 7 - 1 -5.3 -7.7 +2.8
  Jan 26, 2023 178   @ Radford L 59-63 39%     13 - 7 7 - 2 -1.5 -1.0 -1.3
  Jan 28, 2023 280   Charleston Southern L 63-75 79%     13 - 8 7 - 3 -21.0 -12.1 -10.3
  Feb 01, 2023 244   @ Winthrop L 74-76 54%     13 - 9 7 - 4 -3.6 +3.4 -7.1
  Feb 04, 2023 255   Campbell W 69-62 76%    
  Feb 08, 2023 330   Presbyterian W 71-59 88%    
  Feb 11, 2023 304   @ High Point W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 15, 2023 306   @ South Carolina Upstate W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 178   Radford W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 192   @ Gardner-Webb L 62-64 41%    
  Feb 25, 2023 188   UNC Asheville W 70-67 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 3.7 3.7 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 8.0 11.4 1.9 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 13.2 18.9 4.7 0.1 38.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 9.3 11.8 2.4 0.0 25.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.3 0.3 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.4 13.3 26.1 29.7 19.8 5.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 64.6% 3.7    1.3 1.9 0.5
13-5 18.7% 3.7    0.4 1.6 1.5 0.2
12-6 1.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 1.8 3.5 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 5.7% 38.0% 38.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.0 3.5
13-5 19.8% 31.8% 31.8% 14.9 0.0 1.3 4.0 0.9 13.5
12-6 29.7% 25.6% 25.6% 15.2 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.6 22.1
11-7 26.1% 21.0% 21.0% 15.5 0.2 2.2 3.0 20.6
10-8 13.3% 17.3% 17.3% 15.7 0.0 0.7 1.6 11.0
9-9 4.4% 13.2% 13.2% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.8
8-10 0.8% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.1 0.7
7-11 0.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 3.4 12.1 8.8 75.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 38.0% 14.4 0.0 2.4 18.4 16.6 0.6
Lose Out 0.1% 2.2% 16.0 2.2