Longwood
Big South
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 266
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 292
Pace 70.8 117
Improvement +4.7 30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 288 D+ C- D- C+ C-
Defense C- 219 D B- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 165 C 58% 177 +0.2 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 117 D+ 35% 279 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 38% 244 D- 30% 327 -3.9 312
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 233 D+ -3.1 290
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 282
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 125 D 0.93 315 C- 0.30 203
Turnovers D- 19.7% 331
Freethrows C+ 0.32 135 C+ 74% 146 C+ 0.24 126
Total Offense D+ -4.5 288

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 197 C 11.3% 199
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 330 B+ 2.3% 26
Three Pointers C+ 86% 144 C 1.0% 213
Total D+ 51% 271 C+ 5.3% 149

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 128 F+ 66% 348 +4.4 323
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 341 C 38% 183 -2.2 27
Three Pointers 44% 74 C- 35% 220 +2.3 295
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 326 D +3.5 306
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 323
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 144 B 0.92 40 B- 0.27 71
Turnovers B- 18.4% 88
Freethrows D 0.35 303 B- 70% 81 D+ 0.24 277
Total Defense C- -1.5 219

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 81 D- 6.4% 340
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 112 D- 1.4% 346
Three Pointers C- 86% 144 C+ 1.1% 213
Total C 55% 162 D- 3.3% 336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 117 17.3 190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 253 0.17 189
Improvement -0.3 #195 +5.0 #15

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 6% 14% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 41% 72% 20%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 1% 2%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 412 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 101 @Pittsburgh L 60 - 78 10% -5  5% 0 - 1 D -10 F -12 F D A+ B- +2 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 207 James Madison W 82 - 72 50% +8  86% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 D- D B C+ +2 C- A D+
 Sat, Nov 15 360 Binghamton W 90 - 82 89% +14  92% 2 - 1 D- -12 C +1 D B- D- F -13 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 348 Maryland Eastern Shore L 82 - 83 2OT 83% -3  15% 2 - 2 F+ -17 F -10 F B F D- -7 F C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 198 @Columbia L 70 - 95 26% -13  1% 2 - 3 F -24 F+ -8 B+ F F F -15 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 28 189 Siena L 63 - 70 35% -3  26% 2 - 4 D -9 F -11 F B+ F B- +2 F A B
 Sat, Nov 29 344 Maine W 65 - 61 74% +3  85% 3 - 4 D -9 D- -6 A F F C- -2 C F C+
 Sun, Nov 30 251 @American L 66 - 92 35% -8  25% 3 - 5 F -28 F -12 F F A F -16 F F+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 353 @Morgan St. W 84 - 80 68% +1  53% 4 - 5 D+ -7 D+ -3 D B+ F D+ -5 F+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 361 Delaware St. L 76 - 81 90% -5  8% 4 - 6 F -25 C- -1 C D F F -24 F A F
 Wed, Dec 17 60 @Wake Forest L 68 - 71 6% -2  22% 4 - 7 B +9 D -5 F B- B A+ +15 A A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 350 @NC Central W 74 - 72 66% +2  66% 5 - 7 D -8 D- -8 F+ B- F C -1 C- B+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 130 Winthrop W 82 - 70 32% +7  93% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B +11 B+ +7 B+ A+ D B +4 A+ B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 93 @High Point L 67 - 80 9% -7  3% 6 - 8 1 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 C C+ C- C- -2 D+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 217 @UNC Asheville L 61 - 72 29% -6  1% 6 - 9 1 - 2 D -11 D- -8 D- D- C D+ -4 F+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 274 Presbyterian W 77 - 70 64% +10  97% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C- -3 B +6 B+ B C- F+ -8 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 230 @Radford L 83 - 85 31% -11  0% 7 - 10 2 - 3 C- -3 B +7 C+ A+ F+ F+ -9 F A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 91 - 56 92% +17  96% 8 - 10 3 - 3 B+ +14 B- +5 C+ A+ D A- +8 B C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 259 Charleston Southern W 81 - 79 OT 60% +6  82% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -7 F+ -9 C- F F B- +3 D B A+
 Thu, Jan 29 303 @South Carolina Upstate L 60 - 65 48% -2  24% 9 - 11 4 - 4 D -10 F -16 F+ D- F B+ +6 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 93 High Point L 59 - 71 20% -6  17% 9 - 12 4 - 5 D -9 F -12 F D+ F C+ +1 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 363 @Gardner-Webb W 86 - 66 82% +9  99% 10 - 12 5 - 5 C+ +5 C+ +2 A- F C- B- +2 F+ A- A
 Sat, Feb 7 130 @Winthrop L 74 - 79 15% -2  20% 10 - 13 5 - 6 C -0 D- -8 F D- B- A- +8 A- A B+
 Thu, Feb 12 217 UNC Asheville L 74 - 79 51% -0  54% 10 - 14 5 - 7 D -11 C- -1 B- C+ B- F -10 D- D F
 Sat, Feb 14 303 South Carolina Upstate W 82 - 75 OT 70% +3  76% 11 - 14 6 - 7 C- -4 F -10 D C- D+ B +5 B+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 274 @Presbyterian L 68 - 70 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 259 @Charleston Southern L 75 - 78 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 230 Radford W 79 - 78 54%
Totals 12 - 16 7 - 9 -6 D+ -4 D- D+ C- C- -1 D- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C D+ D- D+ 39% 43% 38% C- D+ C+ D C- D- C+ C+ C+ C- F+ C C- D 41% 15% 44% D D C+ B B- B- D B- D+
1.02 58% 35% 30% -3 0 0.95 32% 0.9 .30 20% .32 74% .24 1.11 66% 38% 35% +3 +1 1.11 29% 0.9 .27 18% .35 70% .23
Nov
7		 Pittsburgh F F F F F 53% 16% 32% B+ F C- F D A+ D- A+ D+ B- F A+ F D- 20% 18% 61% A D+ B B B+ B+ F C- F
0.86 40% 22% 22% -18 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19 1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43
Nov
12		 James Madison C+ D B+ F F+ 43% 20% 37% C+ D- B F D B A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B C 46% 10% 44% F C- A+ B- A D+ D+ A+ B
1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 +1 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57 1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17
Nov
15		 Binghamton C A+ F F D 37% 13% 50% C D B+ D B- D- A+ B+ A+ F F F A- F 44% 10% 46% F F F F F A+ F+ D+ F
1.21 84% 14% 27% +1 +1 1.06 38% 1.0 .38 15% .48 77% .36 1.11 71% 60% 27% +4 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 28% .43 78% .34
Nov
18		 Maryland Eastern Shore F F+ D- F F 46% 27% 27% D+ F A- D+ B F A+ A+ A+ D- F B F+ F 33% 22% 44% C F F A+ C+ A+ D A+ B
1.02 50% 31% 23% -10 0 0.81 41% 1.1 .43 24% .55 88% .49 1.03 89% 33% 38% +12 -1 1.24 44% 0.5 .23 30% .26 47% .12
Nov
23		 Columbia F+ F A+ A+ A- 44% 27% 29% D+ B+ F F F F C- F D F C+ B- F F 28% 16% 56% B+ F C- F+ D- D A- D B+
0.97 43% 64% 47% +6 0 1.13 19% 0.2 .03 21% .30 65% .19 1.31 56% 33% 53% +15 0 1.32 37% 1.1 .40 19% .21 75% .15
Nov
28		 Siena F B F F F+ 30% 30% 40% D- F B- B+ B+ F B A+ A B- F F C F 33% 20% 48% D F A+ C- A B F A+ D
0.93 64% 29% 26% -6 -2 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 28% .33 81% .27 1.04 80% 56% 32% +9 0 1.20 17% 1.0 .17 19% .40 59% .24
Nov
29		 Maine D- A A+ A A+ 37% 37% 26% F A C F F F A+ F A C- A- F B- C 40% 17% 43% D C F F F C+ C+ A+ A
1.01 71% 50% 40% +12 -2 1.21 37% 0.7 .26 30% .47 62% .29 0.95 47% 50% 30% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.3 .36 22% .30 47% .14
Nov
30		 American F C- F F F 45% 19% 36% C+ F C- F F A A+ B A+ F F B F+ F 33% 12% 55% C F C F F+ C F F F
0.92 57% 11% 12% -18 +1 0.68 30% 0.5 .15 14% .68 76% .52 1.28 71% 33% 39% +8 +1 1.20 25% 1.3 .32 17% .50 90% .45
Dec
6		 Morgan St. D+ D F A+ D 46% 18% 36% D+ D C- A+ B+ F A+ D- A+ D+ C F A D- 44% 19% 37% F F+ A C B+ C D+ F F
1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49 1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33
Dec
13		 Delaware St. C- A+ A+ F C 38% 16% 47% C- C B+ F D F B+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 46% 28% 26% F F B+ A+ A F F C F
1.14 82% 57% 24% +5 +1 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 24% .39 90% .36 1.21 62% 46% 67% +17 0 1.35 19% 0.4 .07 13% .43 68% .29
Dec
17		 Wake Forest D D- F F F 35% 12% 54% B- F C- A+ B- B B B- B+ A+ C- F A+ A 38% 17% 45% C- A A+ A+ A+ C- F B F
0.93 50% 17% 25% -12 +1 0.79 28% 1.3 .35 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 61% 63% 19% -5 0 0.94 17% 0.8 .14 14% .48 73% .35
Dec
20		 NC Central D- C+ A F F+ 38% 18% 44% C- F+ B+ C- B- F A+ D+ A+ C F A A+ C 40% 23% 36% C- C- A- B- B+ D+ F F+ F
1.04 65% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 44% 0.9 .42 25% .45 71% .32 1.02 84% 27% 12% -4 0 0.94 23% 0.9 .19 17% .51 80% .41
Dec
31		 Winthrop B+ C+ F+ A B 52% 13% 35% A B+ A+ C+ A+ D B+ D+ B B A+ A A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% F+ A+ F+ A+ B D- F D+ F
1.21 60% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.15 44% 1.1 .50 19% .38 71% .27 1.04 39% 25% 24% -17 +2 0.73 39% 0.8 .30 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
3		 High Point D+ B F C- C 44% 16% 40% B- C C+ C C+ C- F D- F C- F A+ A+ C- 51% 8% 41% F+ D+ A+ F C B- D C- D
1.01 65% 29% 33% +1 +1 1.07 33% 1.1 .36 23% .23 67% .16 1.21 77% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.12 22% 1.7 .37 15% .39 77% .30
Jan
7		 UNC Asheville D- C+ F D F+ 42% 17% 42% C D- D F+ D- C A- D+ B D+ D B+ F D- 35% 26% 39% F F+ F A+ B+ D+ D- A C-
0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24 1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24
Jan
10		 Presbyterian B B- C A+ A- 43% 20% 37% C- B+ A- C B C- D+ A+ B- F+ F D+ F F 43% 11% 45% F F A B+ A C+ C+ B+ B-
1.22 62% 40% 44% +8 0 1.18 39% 1.0 .39 16% .26 86% .23 1.11 68% 40% 40% +9 +2 1.23 24% 0.9 .21 21% .32 63% .20
Jan
17		 Radford B C A- A- B 34% 26% 40% F+ C+ A- A+ A+ F+ C- D- D+ F+ F A+ F F 40% 16% 44% C- F B A+ A D+ F A F
1.19 59% 46% 40% +6 -1 1.12 41% 1.4 .56 22% .33 67% .22 1.22 80% 25% 41% +11 +1 1.26 25% 0.6 .16 16% .53 65% .34
Jan
21		 Gardner-Webb B- A+ A+ F B- 37% 23% 40% D C+ A+ A A+ D D+ A C A- A+ F A- B+ 46% 17% 38% C- B F A+ C A+ B- A+ B
1.30 79% 58% 29% +9 0 1.19 48% 1.3 .61 17% .26 80% .21 0.80 41% 50% 28% -9 +1 0.85 33% 0.6 .21 30% .25 58% .14
Jan
23		 Charleston Southern F+ F+ B- B C- 51% 33% 16% C- C- F+ F+ F F A+ A+ A+ B- B B- F D- 35% 6% 59% D+ D C- A B A+ F C+ D-
0.99 46% 41% 38% -4 -1 0.92 21% 0.9 .18 21% .52 82% .43 0.97 53% 33% 41% +4 +2 1.13 30% 0.7 .21 27% .33 65% .22
Jan
29		 South Carolina Upstate F C+ B F F+ 41% 22% 37% D+ F+ B- F D- F F F F B+ F+ A+ D D- 52% 8% 40% F F C+ A+ A A+ C- A+ A
0.85 59% 42% 20% -7 0 0.89 34% 0.8 .26 24% .17 44% .07 0.92 64% 0% 37% +2 +3 1.10 27% 0.5 .14 26% .31 44% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 High Point F C+ F D- F 34% 23% 43% D F B F D+ F F A- F C+ D+ A+ B B- 50% 7% 43% F+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- D+ D- D
0.93 63% 18% 30% -6 -1 0.89 36% 0.8 .30 29% .20 78% .16 1.12 65% 0% 30% -1 +3 1.04 17% 1.2 .21 13% .38 81% .31
Feb
4		 Gardner-Webb C+ A+ C C B+ 58% 15% 26% B+ A- F F F C- B F C- B- D C C+ D- 53% 6% 40% F F+ D+ A+ A- A F A D-
1.21 77% 38% 36% +12 +2 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 15% .33 60% .20 0.93 60% 33% 32% -1 +3 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 25% .38 60% .23
Feb
7		 Winthrop D- A F F F+ 25% 31% 43% F F D+ F+ D- B- A+ F A+ A- F A+ A+ A 32% 11% 57% C A- A+ F A B+ F F F
0.96 69% 31% 23% -7 -2 0.84 27% 0.9 .24 16% .54 63% .34 1.02 67% 20% 22% -9 +1 0.85 14% 1.6 .22 18% .63 88% .55
Feb
12		 UNC Asheville C- A F+ C+ B- 35% 18% 47% D+ B- A F C+ B- A- F C+ F C+ D F D- 37% 33% 31% D- D- D- C D F C- D- D+
1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23 1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25
Feb
14		 South Carolina Upstate F F F A+ D- 57% 20% 23% B- D C- C- C- D+ B D- C+ B C+ A- A+ A- 50% 25% 25% D+ B+ F F F A+ F+ A+ C-
0.98 38% 25% 57% -6 +1 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 17% .34 67% .23 0.90 54% 29% 21% -9 0 0.84 35% 1.3 .46 25% .37 57% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.5 8.2 3rd
4th 3.0 17.6 3.0 23.6 4th
5th 0.2 21.2 11.9 33.4 5th
6th 15.9 16.2 0.7 32.8 6th
7th 2.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 18.1 40.4 31.9 9.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 9.6% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.2
8-8 31.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7 31.2
7-9 40.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 39.6
6-10 18.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 17.9
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.9 97.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.4 2.6 50.0 47.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 11.1%