Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#222
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#199
Pace66.1#268
Improvement-1.2#254

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#338
First Shot-3.9#288
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#310
Layup/Dunks-5.9#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#203
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement-0.8#245

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#88
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#190
Layups/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#127
Freethrows-0.3#215
Improvement-0.3#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 16.9% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 52.6% 63.3% 39.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 91.3% 76.4%
Conference Champion 25.2% 33.3% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four4.3% 4.2% 4.3%
First Round12.7% 15.0% 9.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 9
Quad 414 - 716 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 183   Vermont W 65-51 53%     1 - 0 +9.9 -0.9 +12.2
  Nov 13, 2024 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 8%     1 - 1 -8.4 -23.4 +15.3
  Nov 17, 2024 108   Princeton L 57-68 34%     1 - 2 -10.1 -7.2 -5.0
  Nov 20, 2024 58   @ Rutgers L 63-74 8%     1 - 3 +1.5 -1.2 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 54   @ Butler L 39-78 8%     1 - 4 -26.3 -22.2 -9.8
  Nov 25, 2024 154   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 26%     1 - 5 -3.7 -2.6 -0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 55%     1 - 6 -6.7 -8.1 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 125   @ Troy W 72-68 21%     2 - 6 +9.1 +9.3 +0.2
  Dec 06, 2024 345   @ Canisius W 60-52 72%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -1.2 -14.8 +14.1
  Dec 08, 2024 308   @ Niagara W 64-63 55%    
  Dec 13, 2024 268   Boston University W 66-60 70%    
  Dec 17, 2024 93   @ Stanford L 61-73 13%    
  Dec 19, 2024 42   @ St. Mary's L 53-71 5%    
  Jan 03, 2025 283   Fairfield W 68-62 72%    
  Jan 10, 2025 269   @ Sacred Heart L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 12, 2025 313   Manhattan W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 16, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 302   Siena W 66-59 74%    
  Jan 23, 2025 209   @ St. Peter's L 58-62 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 283   @ Fairfield W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 31, 2025 254   Mount St. Mary's W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 02, 2025 257   @ Rider L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 06, 2025 308   Niagara W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 345   Canisius W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 14, 2025 313   @ Manhattan W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 16, 2025 242   Marist W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 21, 2025 269   Sacred Heart W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 23, 2025 274   @ Iona L 64-65 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 257   Rider W 66-61 67%    
  Mar 02, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 70-66 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 242   @ Marist L 60-62 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.3 6.5 6.0 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 25.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.8 5.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 5.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.2 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.5 9.5 11.9 13.3 13.5 12.3 10.0 6.9 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 99.7% 2.1    2.1 0.0
17-3 96.4% 4.1    3.8 0.4
16-4 87.1% 6.0    4.8 1.1 0.1
15-5 65.3% 6.5    3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 34.5% 4.3    1.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 9.6% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 16.6 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 37.7% 37.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.6% 47.8% 47.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 2.1% 36.3% 36.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.3
17-3 4.3% 33.7% 33.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 2.8
16-4 6.9% 27.0% 27.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 5.0
15-5 10.0% 23.7% 23.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.9 7.6
14-6 12.3% 19.3% 19.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 10.0
13-7 13.5% 16.6% 16.6% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.8 11.2
12-8 13.3% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 11.6
11-9 11.9% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.1
10-10 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 9.1
9-11 6.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 6.3
8-12 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-14 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 7.7 85.3 0.0%