Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#263
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#202
Pace62.7#340
Improvement+1.2#107

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#284
First Shot-1.8#220
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#324
Layup/Dunks-4.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#97
Freethrows+1.9#76
Improvement+0.2#164

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#216
First Shot+2.7#89
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#361
Layups/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#56
Freethrows-0.7#234
Improvement+1.0#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.2% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 36.6% 51.7% 27.6%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 77.8% 54.1%
Conference Champion 3.0% 5.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round3.5% 4.8% 2.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 413 - 615 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 172 South Dakota St. L 66-75 32%     0 - 1 -9.8 -7.6 -2.1
  Thu, Nov 6 34 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     0 - 2 -21.6 -8.3 -14.8
  Tue, Nov 11 180 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 25%     0 - 3 -12.5 -11.8 +0.0
  Sat, Nov 15 288 @Boston University W 91-79 42%     1 - 3 +8.3 +20.2 -10.8
  Wed, Nov 19 342 Maine W 72-65 80%     2 - 3 -7.5 +5.4 -12.1
  Fri, Nov 21 12 @Florida L 45-80 2%     2 - 4 -14.0 -13.7 -2.7
  Fri, Nov 28 240 @Penn L 65-77 35%     2 - 5 -13.6 -7.6 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 29 110 Hofstra L 58-78 19%     2 - 6 -16.3 -10.1 -7.1
  Sun, Nov 30 233 La Salle W 66-60 45%     3 - 6 +1.6 -0.7 +2.9
  Thu, Dec 4 344 Rider W 68-66 81%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -12.8 -0.9 -11.7
  Sun, Dec 7 277 Fairfield W 74-63 64%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +1.7 +2.6 +0.1
  Wed, Dec 10 248 @Princeton W 59-56 36%     6 - 6 +1.0 +0.0 +1.7
  Sun, Dec 14 178 @Vermont L 59-66 24%     6 - 7 -5.3 -4.2 -2.5
  Mon, Dec 29 250 @Sacred Heart L 69-73 37%    
  Fri, Jan 2 300 Mount St. Mary's W 70-65 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 313 Manhattan W 75-69 72%    
  Fri, Jan 9 179 @Siena L 62-69 25%    
  Sun, Jan 11 297 @St. Peter's L 63-64 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 160 Quinnipiac L 70-73 41%    
  Mon, Jan 19 157 @Marist L 59-68 21%    
  Thu, Jan 22 165 @Iona L 68-76 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 297 St. Peter's W 66-61 66%    
  Sun, Feb 1 250 Sacred Heart W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 300 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 344 @Rider W 65-62 61%    
  Thu, Feb 12 157 Marist L 62-65 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 160 @Quinnipiac L 67-76 22%    
  Fri, Feb 20 179 Siena L 65-66 45%    
  Sun, Feb 22 165 Iona L 71-73 42%    
  Fri, Feb 27 347 @Canisius W 65-61 62%    
  Sun, Mar 1 352 @Niagara W 67-62 66%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.7 5.3 1.5 0.1 14.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.8 5.7 1.7 0.1 15.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.0 5.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.8 1.7 0.1 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.6 1.5 0.2 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 1.1 0.1 5.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.8 10.3 13.3 14.7 14.8 12.6 9.3 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 88.2% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 57.6% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.4% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 20.7% 20.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 20.1% 20.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.5% 20.3% 20.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.2
15-5 3.3% 13.3% 13.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.9
14-6 5.8% 9.6% 9.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.3
13-7 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 8.6
12-8 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.3 0.4 11.9
11-9 14.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.1 0.4 14.3
10-10 14.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 14.4
9-11 13.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.2
8-12 10.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.0 96.0 0.0%