Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #194
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #151
Pace 62.7 #331
Improvement +7.6 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #240 D+ D C+ B B
Defense #144 C+ F+ B- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.04 #315 -2.0 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #325 0.73 #210 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 48% #43 0.93 #294 +1.5 #128
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #289 -3.7 #292
Freethrows 0.33 #98 78% #17 0.26 #44
Second Chance 23.8% #341 0.98 #243 0.23 #336
Turnovers 16.2% #129
Total Offense -2.6 #240

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.06 #66 -0.2 #183
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #98 0.85 #314 -1.6 #299
Three Pointers 35% #335 0.96 #95 +4.2 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #103 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 0.35 #301 72% #187 0.25 #289
Second Chance 41.1% #365 0.99 #132 0.41 #352
Turnovers 18.9% #70
Total Defense +0.6 #144

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #53 0.0% #165
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #324 -4.2% #99
Possession Length 18.4 #297 18.2 #311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #174 0.12 #36
Improvement +3.8 #28 +3.8 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 18.0% 14.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 68.3% 74.3% 47.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
First Round17.0% 17.8% 14.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Away) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 74 - 9
Quad 417 - 321 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 188 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 49% -2  0 - 1 -11 -9 F F C -2 B- D- B+
 Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57 - 95 4% -18  0 - 2 -19 -7 F D B+ -14 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 216 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 43% -5  0 - 3 -14 -12 F D- F -1 D C- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 289 @Boston University W 91 - 79 58% +10  1 - 3 +8 +20 A+ C F -11 D- F D
 Wed, Nov 19 337 Maine W 72 - 65 87% +3  2 - 3 -7 +6 D B+ B -12 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 7 @Florida L 45 - 80 1% -24  2 - 4 -10 -12 F D+ C -0 A+ F B
 Fri, Nov 28 181 @Penn L 65 - 77 36% -4  2 - 5 -10 -5 F D A+ -5 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 122 Hofstra L 58 - 78 33% -12  2 - 6 -18 -12 D F C+ -6 C- B- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 225 La Salle W 66 - 60 56% +4  3 - 6 +2 -1 D+ D B- +4 C D- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 352 Rider W 68 - 66 90% +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -14 -6 C- F C+ -8 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 267 Fairfield W 74 - 63 75% +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +2 +2 B- F C+ +1 C B A-
 Wed, Dec 10 215 @Princeton W 59 - 56 43% +2  6 - 6 +3 -1 D F A+ +4 A+ F C-
 Sun, Dec 14 223 @Vermont L 59 - 66 44% -7  6 - 7 -8 -4 F C D- -5 B+ D- D-
 Mon, Dec 29 277 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 57% +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +4 +7 C+ F+ B- -3 D+ D- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 298 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 80% +4  8 - 7 4 - 0 -1 -0 D C- C -1 A- D+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 328 Manhattan W 73 - 66 86% +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -6 -7 C F B- +0 B- C+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 175 @Siena W 63 - 59 35% +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +6 +9 C+ D+ A- -2 B F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 231 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 46% -9  10 - 8 6 - 1 -14 -0 F C+ C+ -15 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 190 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 61% +12  11 - 8 7 - 1 +7 +13 A- B C- -5 A- D- D-
 Mon, Jan 19 153 @Marist W 68 - 55 31% +6  12 - 8 8 - 1 +16 +8 B+ F C +10 A+ D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 235 @Iona L 60 - 61 46% -1  12 - 9 8 - 2 -2 -2 D B F -0 B- C C
 Sat, Jan 24 231 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 69% +11  13 - 9 9 - 2 +1 -1 D+ D+ B +2 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 277 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 77% +8  14 - 9 10 - 2 +7 +2 F B+ A+ +7 B B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 298 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 70 62% +10  15 - 9 11 - 2 +12 +13 A+ F C -2 C F+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 352 @Rider W 71 - 63 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 153 Marist W 63 - 62 53%
 Sun, Feb 15 190 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 72 38%
 Fri, Feb 20 175 Siena W 68 - 66 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 235 Iona W 72 - 67 69%
 Fri, Feb 27 349 @Canisius W 68 - 61 74%
 Sun, Mar 1 342 @Niagara W 67 - 60 73%
Totals 19 - 12 15 - 5 -2 -3 D+ D C+ +1 C+ F+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.9 17.9 27.0 17.2 4.3 68.3 1st
2nd 0.5 8.7 8.9 0.8 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 5.2 0.3 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.6 3.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 1.4 5.8 16.4 27.1 27.8 17.2 4.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 4.3    4.3
17-3 100.0% 17.2    16.9 0.3
16-4 97.1% 27.0    20.2 6.6 0.2
15-5 66.2% 17.9    4.4 9.1 3.9 0.5
14-6 11.6% 1.9    0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 68.3% 68.3 45.9 16.3 4.9 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 4.3% 23.8% 23.8% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 3.3
17-3 17.2% 22.5% 22.5% 14.5 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.1 13.3
16-4 27.8% 18.6% 18.6% 14.8 0.0 1.3 3.3 0.5 22.6
15-5 27.1% 15.6% 15.6% 15.2 0.5 2.6 1.2 22.9
14-6 16.4% 14.2% 14.2% 15.4 0.1 1.2 1.0 14.0
13-7 5.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.2
12-8 1.4% 9.3% 9.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.3
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 14.9 82.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.8 2.0 26.5 62.7 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%