Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 165
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 139
Pace 62.3 335
Improvement +10.2 2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 232 D+ D- C+ B+ B
Defense C+ 113 B F+ B D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 143 D+ 54% 287 -0.9 216
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 338 C+ 39% 133 -2.8 313
Three Pointers 47% 58 D 31% 298 +1.0 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 52 D -3.6 303
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 267
Second Chance D- 23.7% 340 C- 1.00 226 D- 0.24 333
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 141
Freethrows B- 0.34 71 B+ 78% 15 B+ 0.26 34
Total Offense C- -2.2 232

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 41% 291 F+ 14.9% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 225 D 7.6% 319
Three Pointers B- 87% 118 B- 0.6% 117
Total C 55% 190 D- 7.2% 329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 102 B+ 52% 41 -0.7 145
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 89 C- 40% 257 +1.2 287
Three Pointers 35% 335 B 31% 52 -4.8 19
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 147 B -3.8 45
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 52
Second Chance F 41.0% 365 C+ 1.01 147 F+ 0.41 357
Turnovers B 18.9% 64
Freethrows D+ 0.34 298 C+ 71% 118 D+ 0.24 277
Total Defense C+ +2.0 113

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 339 B- 14.3% 62
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 46% 361 B- 6.5% 83
Three Pointers D- 91% 350 A+ 3.8% 1
Total D- 64% 334 A- 8.8% 19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 298 18.3 317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 170 0.12 38
Improvement +3.5 #32 +6.7 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 27% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 100% 98%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round26% 27% 24%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 67.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 418 - 322 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 60% -2  31% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -11 F F C C -1 B- F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 33 @Auburn L 57 - 95 6% -18  3% 0 - 2 F -21 F -12 F D- B F -10 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 224 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 51% -5  17% 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -14 F D- F C -0 D D B+
 Sat, Nov 15 256 @Boston University W 91 - 79 58% +10  95% 1 - 3 B +10 A+ +18 A+ C+ F D- -8 D F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 346 Maine W 72 - 65 92% +3  77% 2 - 3 D -9 C+ +3 D- B+ B F -10 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 4 @Florida L 45 - 80 2% -24  0% 2 - 4 D -9 F -14 F D+ C B- +2 A F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 172 @Penn L 65 - 77 40% -4  29% 2 - 5 D -10 D- -7 F D- A+ D+ -4 D+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 108 Hofstra L 58 - 78 34% -12  2% 2 - 6 F+ -16 F -13 D F B- D+ -4 C- B- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 212 La Salle W 66 - 60 60% +4  88% 3 - 6 C+ +3 C- -2 D D+ B- B+ +6 C F+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 355 Rider W 68 - 66 94% +1  63% 4 - 6 1 - 0 F+ -16 F+ -8 C- F C+ D- -7 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 267 Fairfield W 74 - 63 80% +10  98% 5 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 B F B- B +4 C B A
 Wed, Dec 10 247 @Princeton W 59 - 56 55% +2  71% 6 - 6 C +1 D -5 D- F A A- +7 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 229 @Vermont L 59 - 66 52% -7  0% 6 - 7 D+ -8 D -6 F C D D+ -3 A- D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 284 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 64% +8  99% 7 - 7 3 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 B- F+ C+ C -0 D+ D- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 288 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 83% +4  74% 8 - 7 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -3 D D+ C- B- +2 A D+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 319 Manhattan W 73 - 66 88% +4  80% 9 - 7 5 - 0 D+ -6 F+ -8 C F B- B- +3 B- C+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 188 @Siena W 63 - 59 44% +9  94% 10 - 7 6 - 0 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A- C -0 B F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 228 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 52% -9  0% 10 - 8 6 - 1 D- -14 D+ -3 F C+ C F -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 68% +12  90% 11 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 A +12 A B C- D+ -4 B+ F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 185 @Marist W 68 - 55 44% +6  88% 12 - 8 8 - 1 B+ +14 B- +4 B F C A+ +11 A+ D+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 252 @Iona L 60 - 61 57% -1  29% 12 - 9 8 - 2 C- -3 D- -6 D- B F B- +3 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 228 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 73% +11  97% 13 - 9 9 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 D+ D B B+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 284 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 82% +8  93% 14 - 9 10 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 F A- A+ A +10 B+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 288 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 70 65% +10  90% 15 - 9 11 - 2 B+ +13 A- +11 A+ F C- C+ +2 C+ F+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 355 @Rider W 73 - 47 85% +16  98% 16 - 9 12 - 2 A- +14 B+ +8 B A+ F A+ +12 A+ D- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 185 Marist W 81 - 56 66% +6  55% 17 - 9 13 - 2 A +20 A +13 A+ F A A +9 A+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 15 192 @Quinnipiac W 56 - 49 45% +0  54% 18 - 9 14 - 2 B- +8 F -12 F F C A+ +20 A+ F A+
 Fri, Feb 20 188 Siena W 69 - 64 67%
 Sun, Feb 22 252 Iona W 74 - 66 77%
 Fri, Feb 27 345 @Canisius W 68 - 59 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 336 @Niagara W 67 - 59 78%
Totals 21 - 10 17 - 3 +0 C- -2 C+ D B C+ +2 D B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C+ D D 40% 22% 47% B D+ D- C- D- C+ B- B+ B+ C+ B+ C- B B 42% 23% 35% C B F C+ F+ B D+ C+ D+
1.05 54% 39% 31% -4 +1 0.97 24% 1.0 .24 16% .34 78% .26 1.06 52% 40% 31% -4 0 0.94 41% 1.0 .41 19% .34 71% .24
Nov
3		 South Dakota St. F F F+ F 49% 0% 51% A+ F D F F C A+ A A+ C A- B F B- 44% 23% 33% C+ B- F B- F+ A- F F+ F
0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37 1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36
Nov
6		 Auburn F F+ F F F 31% 12% 57% B F D D- D- B A+ D+ A+ F C- F A B- 34% 21% 45% A- B F F+ F D+ F B- F
0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30 1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
11		 Tarleton St. F D- F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F B F D- F A- A- A+ C C F A+ F+ 45% 37% 18% B+ D F A- D B+ F B- F
0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36 1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32
Nov
15		 Boston University A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 13% 53% C+ A+ B D+ C+ F C+ A+ A- D- F+ D F F+ 27% 20% 53% B+ D C+ F F D- F+ A C-
1.41 60% 17% 67% +24 +1 1.51 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 88% .26 1.23 67% 44% 42% +10 -1 1.20 25% 1.6 .41 16% .35 63% .22
Nov
19		 Maine C+ B- A+ F F+ 40% 14% 47% B- D- D A+ B+ B A+ D- A+ F D B A+ B 47% 18% 35% D- B- F D F A+ F D- F
1.16 65% 50% 20% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.5 .48 16% .60 65% .38 1.05 63% 33% 17% -8 +1 0.88 47% 1.1 .53 27% .67 70% .47
Nov
21		 Florida F D- F F F 40% 16% 44% A F D+ D- D+ C F+ A+ D+ B- A+ D+ D- A 40% 19% 40% A A F D F B+ F+ F+ F
0.69 45% 13% 18% -20 +1 0.64 17% 0.6 .10 17% .20 82% .16 1.22 37% 44% 37% -6 0 0.91 51% 1.2 .59 18% .43 78% .34
Nov
28		 Penn D- C B F F 40% 16% 44% C+ F F+ C- D- A+ C- A C+ D+ C F A+ D+ 46% 29% 25% D+ D+ F+ F+ F C- F+ A+ B-
0.96 61% 44% 12% -12 +1 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 7% .24 73% .17 1.13 55% 64% 25% +3 -1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .40 52% .21
Nov
29		 Hofstra F F F D+ D- 30% 11% 59% B+ D F+ F F B- F+ A+ C- D+ F A+ F C- 33% 24% 43% C C- D+ A- B- A- F F F
0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21 1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32
Nov
30		 La Salle C- D- D- C D 34% 17% 49% C D C- D D+ B- D B+ D+ B+ D+ A+ B- C+ 48% 21% 31% D C F B+ F+ A+ F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 16% .21 73% .15 0.95 60% 22% 31% -4 +1 0.95 50% 0.8 .41 30% .41 78% .32
Dec
4		 Rider F+ D A+ C+ C- 34% 12% 54% D+ C- F C- F C+ F D- F D- A- F B- D+ 52% 25% 23% F D F F F A+ F+ A- D+
1.08 53% 67% 37% +4 +1 1.12 15% 1.0 .15 13% .20 64% .13 1.05 43% 55% 30% -5 0 0.93 48% 1.2 .59 24% .33 63% .21
Dec
7		 Fairfield C- C B A B 40% 16% 44% D+ B F F F B- A+ A- A+ B B- A F+ C- 38% 23% 38% C+ C F A+ B A F+ A D+
1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40 0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20
Dec
10		 Princeton D C- F F F 43% 14% 43% B- D- F D F A A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ 55% 9% 36% F A+ F C F C F F+ F
1.02 58% 17% 26% -8 +1 0.89 10% 1.0 .10 9% .38 90% .34 0.97 25% 0% 31% -23 +3 0.61 45% 1.0 .45 17% .44 81% .36
Dec
14		 Vermont D F A+ F F 48% 11% 41% A F C C- C D C A B- D+ F+ F A+ A- 38% 19% 43% C A- F B- D- F+ F F F
1.01 43% 60% 28% -9 +2 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 15% .32 81% .26 1.13 69% 50% 17% -5 0 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 12% .47 83% .39
Dec
29		 Sacred Heart B- C- D A C+ 35% 6% 59% B- B- F C+ F+ C+ A+ D A+ C C F C- D 30% 21% 49% B- D+ F B D- C+ D A C-
1.21 59% 33% 41% +7 +2 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 14% .40 70% .28 1.09 57% 50% 35% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.9 .34 20% .32 71% .23
Jan
2		 Mount St. Mary's D+ D+ C F D- 36% 12% 52% B D F A+ D+ C- A+ B A+ B- B F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% D- A F A+ D+ C+ F C F
1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35
Jan
4		 Manhattan F+ A+ A F C- 41% 8% 51% B+ C F D F B- A+ F B B- A F A+ B- 51% 28% 21% D+ B- D A C+ D A+ F A+
1.09 75% 50% 28% +3 +2 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 13% .34 65% .22 0.98 41% 56% 25% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .26 13% .14 88% .12
Jan
9		 Siena B F F A+ C- 48% 9% 43% A+ C+ C D- D+ A- C- A- C+ C D+ C- A B- 30% 33% 37% B B F A F B- A- D B+
1.16 43% 25% 47% 0 +2 1.07 32% 0.8 .26 13% .28 77% .21 1.09 62% 43% 25% -2 -2 0.93 55% 0.8 .42 18% .20 78% .16
Jan
11		 St. Peter's D+ C- A+ F F 43% 17% 39% C+ F C B C+ C C+ A- B F F+ C+ F F 38% 38% 24% A F F D F A F B+ F
1.02 55% 50% 11% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.2 .41 19% .42 81% .34 1.23 64% 36% 56% +9 -2 1.16 52% 1.1 .55 23% .63 70% .44
Jan
17		 Quinnipiac A F F A+ A 37% 9% 53% B A D+ A+ B C- A+ C+ A+ D+ A- C+ A A 53% 24% 22% D- B+ B- F F+ F+ F D F
1.24 44% 25% 52% +8 +1 1.21 30% 1.4 .41 18% .49 74% .36 1.06 46% 33% 27% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.4 .42 13% .45 73% .33
Jan
19		 Marist B- A- A+ F B 39% 24% 37% C+ B F C+ F C A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 32% C- A+ F B+ D+ B F F F
1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42 0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
22		 Iona D- F B D+ F+ 48% 16% 36% B D- B+ C+ B F C- F D- B- A+ A+ F B- 24% 18% 58% B B- F+ A C C+ D B- D+
0.99 48% 43% 31% -6 +1 0.93 41% 1.0 .41 22% .25 58% .15 1.01 27% 25% 42% -3 -1 0.96 31% 0.8 .25 18% .30 67% .20
Jan
24		 St. Peter's D+ F F A+ D- 56% 7% 37% A D+ F A D B A- A+ A+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A+ F A F A+ F B F
1.06 39% 0% 47% -6 +3 0.95 25% 1.3 .32 17% .48 88% .42 0.93 44% 30% 16% -18 0 0.64 60% 0.8 .47 25% .51 71% .36
Feb
1		 Sacred Heart C- D F F F 46% 12% 42% B- F B- A- A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A A F A- B 33% 33% 35% A B+ A F+ B- A+ F F F
1.18 57% 17% 24% -10 +2 0.86 36% 1.3 .46 8% .32 84% .27 0.91 46% 46% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.2 .23 25% .38 89% .33
Feb
5		 Mount St. Mary's A- A- A+ A A+ 30% 10% 60% B A+ F C- F C- A A+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F B- 52% 15% 33% D C+ F+ D+ F+ D- F A+ F
1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35 0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28
Feb
7		 Rider B+ A A D+ B- 59% 10% 31% B+ B A A+ A+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 41% 27% A- A+ C- F D- F+ F A+ F+
1.27 70% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.23 45% 1.3 .60 19% .45 76% .34 0.82 14% 39% 17% -21 -3 0.55 33% 1.1 .37 14% .47 52% .24
Feb
12		 Marist A A+ A+ A A+ 40% 14% 46% A- A+ F F F A A D- B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 23% 30% F+ A+ F F F B- C- A C+
1.22 75% 57% 39% +13 +1 1.30 14% 0.5 .07 14% .44 64% .28 0.85 36% 27% 21% -18 0 0.66 33% 1.4 .45 20% .26 71% .19
Feb
15		 Quinnipiac F D- B- F F 48% 19% 33% C+ F F C F C A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% A+ A+ F A- F A+ F D F
0.86 50% 38% 21% -10 +1 0.83 11% 1.0 .11 17% .37 90% .33 0.75 46% 11% 8% -26 -3 0.43 52% 0.9 .45 25% .39 74% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.5 19.8 41.2 33.8 99.5 1st
2nd 0.3 0.2 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.5 4.7 19.8 41.2 33.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 33.8    33.8
17-3 100.0% 41.2    41.2
16-4 100.0% 19.8    19.0 0.8
15-5 95.1% 4.5    2.2 2.1 0.1
14-6 31.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 99.5% 99.5 96.2 3.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 33.8% 29.9% 29.9% 13.9 0.1 2.6 6.1 1.4 23.7
17-3 41.2% 26.3% 26.3% 14.5 0.4 4.6 5.5 0.4 30.4
16-4 19.8% 22.6% 22.6% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.8 0.6 15.4
15-5 4.7% 20.2% 20.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 3.8
14-6 0.5% 10.6% 10.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 14.4 73.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.1% 100.0% 13.9 1.0 25.3 60.0 13.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.1%
Lose Out 0.2%