IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.3	#261
Expected Predictive Rating	-12.7	#346

Pace	62.7	#326
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.7	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#154

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.1%	14.8%	5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.9	14.4	15.2

.500 or above	32.0%	64.8%	31.3%
.500 or above in Conference	54.3%	77.0%	53.8%
Conference Champion	6.5%	17.2%	6.2%
Last Place in Conference	5.7%	1.9%	5.8%

First Four	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%
First Round	6.0%	14.6%	5.8%
Second Round	0.2%	0.7%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	11 - 8	14 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	147	South Dakota St.	L	66-75	29%	0 - 1			-8.7	-7.6	-1.1
Nov 06, 2025	35	@ Auburn	L	57-78	2%
Nov 11, 2025	265	@ Tarleton St.	L	60-63	40%
Nov 15, 2025	254	@ Boston University	L	59-62	38%
Nov 19, 2025	299	Maine	W	63-58	68%
Nov 21, 2025	6	@ Florida	L	55-83	0.5%
Nov 28, 2025	278	@ Penn	L	65-67	42%
Nov 29, 2025	163	Hofstra	L	58-63	33%
Nov 30, 2025	193	La Salle	L	65-68	38%
Dec 04, 2025	314	Rider	W	66-60	71%
Dec 07, 2025	300	Fairfield	W	66-61	67%
Dec 10, 2025	176	@ Princeton	L	61-68	27%
Dec 14, 2025	189	@ Vermont	L	57-63	29%
Dec 29, 2025	235	@ Sacred Heart	L	67-71	36%
Jan 02, 2026	253	Mount St. Mary's	W	66-63	59%
Jan 04, 2026	239	Manhattan	W	68-66	56%
Jan 09, 2026	185	@ Siena	L	61-68	28%
Jan 11, 2026	302	@ St. Peter's	L	59-60	48%
Jan 17, 2026	220	Quinnipiac	W	69-68	54%
Jan 19, 2026	188	@ Marist	L	56-62	29%
Jan 22, 2026	213	@ Iona	L	63-69	32%
Jan 24, 2026	302	St. Peter's	W	62-57	67%
Feb 01, 2026	235	Sacred Heart	W	70-68	56%
Feb 05, 2026	253	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	63-66	39%
Feb 07, 2026	314	@ Rider	W	63-62	50%
Feb 12, 2026	188	Marist	L	58-59	48%
Feb 15, 2026	220	@ Quinnipiac	L	66-71	34%
Feb 20, 2026	185	Siena	L	64-65	48%
Feb 22, 2026	213	Iona	W	66-65	51%
Feb 27, 2026	351	@ Canisius	W	66-62	63%
Mar 01, 2026	336	@ Niagara	W	64-62	57%
Projected Record						13 - 18	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.2	0.6	1.5	1.7	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1		6.5	1st
2nd													0.2	1.0	2.3	2.4	1.0	0.3	0.0				7.2	2nd
3rd												0.2	1.6	3.1	2.2	0.7	0.1						8.0	3rd
4th											0.1	1.6	3.5	2.5	0.8	0.1							8.5	4th
5th										0.1	1.1	3.5	3.2	0.8	0.0								8.6	5th
6th									0.1	1.0	3.7	3.7	0.9	0.1	0.0								9.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.0	0.6	3.3	3.9	1.1	0.1										9.1	7th
8th							0.1	0.7	3.0	4.2	1.7	0.1											9.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.7	2.5	3.8	1.8	0.2												9.0	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.6	2.2	3.4	1.7	0.2	0.0												8.1	10th
11th				0.1	0.7	1.9	2.6	1.5	0.2														7.0	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.6	1.8	1.0	0.2	0.0														5.6	12th
13th	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0															3.2	13th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.7	3.2	4.7	6.6	8.2	9.4	10.6	10.7	10.2	9.6	7.7	5.8	4.8	2.8	1.7	0.8	0.2	0.1			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	97.4%	0.8		0.7	0.1
17-3	84.9%	1.4		1.1	0.4	0.0
16-4	62.4%	1.7		1.0	0.6	0.1
15-5	32.5%	1.5		0.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
14-6	9.5%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.0%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.5%	6.5		3.8	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%																		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.2%		53.3%	53.3%		13.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.8%		31.8%	31.8%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
17-3	1.7%		27.9%	27.9%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.2
16-4	2.8%		27.7%	27.7%		15.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	2.0
15-5	4.8%		18.5%	18.5%		16.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	3.9
14-6	5.8%		14.6%	14.6%		17.2														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	5.0
13-7	7.7%		11.2%	11.2%		17.7														0.0	0.0	0.4	0.6	6.8
12-8	9.6%		7.8%	7.8%		19.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	8.8
11-9	10.2%		4.7%	4.7%		18.8															0.0	0.1	0.5	9.7
10-10	10.7%		2.8%	2.8%		18.0																0.0	0.3	10.4
9-11	10.6%		1.6%	1.6%		17.0																	0.2	10.5
8-12	9.4%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.4
7-13	8.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.2
6-14	6.6%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
5-15	4.7%																							4.7
4-16	3.2%																							3.2
3-17	1.7%																							1.7
2-18	0.8%																							0.8
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.1%	6.1%	0.0%	16.9												0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.0	3.2	93.9		0.0%