Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#59
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#107
Pace68.3#200
Improvement+1.1#115

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#71
First Shot+1.5#136
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#51
Layup/Dunks+1.9#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#58
Freethrows-2.3#298
Improvement+0.3#155

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#51
First Shot+5.1#44
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#191
Layups/Dunks+3.1#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
Freethrows+2.7#39
Improvement+0.8#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 3.3% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 5.1% 10.5% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 42.4% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.4% 41.5% 22.2%
Average Seed 8.4 8.0 8.6
.500 or above 50.8% 69.9% 45.6%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 39.7% 28.7%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 7.2% 11.5%
First Four5.0% 5.8% 4.8%
First Round24.6% 39.5% 20.5%
Second Round12.8% 21.9% 10.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 7.5% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.5% 3.0% 1.1%
Final Four0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 11
Quad 25 - 59 - 16
Quad 33 - 112 - 16
Quad 44 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 344   New Orleans W 89-65 98%     1 - 0 +8.8 +12.8 -2.9
  Nov 09, 2024 259   Cleveland St. W 77-64 94%     2 - 0 +4.6 +3.1 +1.6
  Nov 14, 2024 47   LSU L 65-76 58%     2 - 1 -3.7 -2.9 -1.0
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99%     3 - 1 -6.2 -4.1 -1.1
  Nov 22, 2024 151   George Washington W 83-71 80%     4 - 1 +12.6 +6.8 +5.3
  Nov 24, 2024 70   Liberty L 65-67 55%     4 - 2 +6.0 +4.0 +1.8
  Nov 25, 2024 202   Longwood W 80-64 85%     5 - 2 +14.1 +6.9 +7.2
  Dec 01, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 120-73 99%     6 - 2 +26.6 +19.5 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2024 20   @ St. John's L 69-77 22%    
  Dec 17, 2024 73   Drake W 68-63 67%    
  Dec 21, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 30, 2024 25   Cincinnati L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 04, 2025 78   @ TCU L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 07, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Houston L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 14, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 18, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 22, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 45   West Virginia W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 68-80 14%    
  Feb 04, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 7   Kansas L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 23   Arizona L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 49   @ BYU L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 17, 2025 60   @ Utah L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 23, 2025 51   Arizona St. W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 83   @ Central Florida L 72-73 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 85   Colorado W 74-68 70%    
  Mar 05, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 66-74 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 71-77 30%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.5 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.9 1.0 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.2 0.2 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.3 3.2 0.4 9.2 10th
11th 0.5 3.4 4.7 0.9 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 2.1 0.1 9.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.7 0.3 9.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 8.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.9 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.7 8.5 11.0 12.9 13.5 12.3 10.5 8.0 5.5 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 81.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 56.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.0% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.9% 99.4% 6.9% 92.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 3.6% 97.7% 3.6% 94.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.6%
12-8 5.5% 92.1% 2.2% 89.9% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 91.9%
11-9 8.0% 77.7% 1.7% 76.1% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 1.8 77.4%
10-10 10.5% 53.1% 1.0% 52.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.9 0.2 4.9 52.7%
9-11 12.3% 20.4% 0.4% 20.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.3 9.8 20.1%
8-12 13.5% 4.6% 0.2% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 12.8 4.4%
7-13 12.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.3%
6-14 11.0% 11.0
5-15 8.5% 8.5
4-16 5.7% 5.7
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 27.1% 0.9% 26.1% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.8 0.6 72.9 26.4%