Oklahoma
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#23
Expected Predictive Rating+18.9#10
Pace68.7#201
Improvement-1.1#262

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#39
First Shot+4.9#55
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#115
Layup/Dunks+6.7#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement-1.0#264

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#22
First Shot+6.9#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#188
Layups/Dunks+2.3#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#104
Freethrows+1.3#113
Improvement-0.1#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.6% 4.5% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 10.3% 12.5% 5.4%
Top 4 Seed 31.3% 35.9% 20.7%
Top 6 Seed 52.4% 58.3% 39.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.7% 86.0% 72.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.5% 84.9% 70.7%
Average Seed 5.6 5.4 6.3
.500 or above 96.3% 98.0% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 68.3% 57.4%
Conference Champion 5.8% 6.7% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.1% 3.5%
First Four5.1% 4.5% 6.4%
First Round79.4% 84.0% 69.0%
Second Round55.1% 60.0% 44.2%
Sweet Sixteen28.1% 31.3% 20.9%
Elite Eight12.3% 13.9% 8.7%
Final Four5.3% 6.0% 3.6%
Championship Game2.3% 2.6% 1.7%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 32 - 013 - 10
Quad 48 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 319   Central Michigan W 89-59 98%     1 - 0 +18.3 +7.4 +9.8
  Nov 10, 2023 362   Mississippi Valley W 82-43 99.6%    2 - 0 +16.3 +8.3 +11.7
  Nov 14, 2023 213   Texas St. W 93-54 94%     3 - 0 +33.8 +20.3 +13.2
  Nov 17, 2023 318   UT Rio Grande Valley W 90-66 98%     4 - 0 +12.3 +5.2 +5.4
  Nov 23, 2023 35   Iowa W 79-67 55%     5 - 0 +23.6 +6.9 +16.6
  Nov 24, 2023 32   USC W 72-70 54%     6 - 0 +14.0 +6.9 +7.1
  Nov 30, 2023 355   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 107-86 99%     7 - 0 +4.1 +10.9 -9.1
  Dec 05, 2023 44   Providence W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 09, 2023 46   Arkansas W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 16, 2023 287   Green Bay W 77-54 98%    
  Dec 20, 2023 14   North Carolina L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 28, 2023 348   Central Arkansas W 87-58 99.6%   
  Dec 31, 2023 239   Monmouth W 82-62 97%    
  Jan 06, 2024 24   Iowa St. W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 09, 2024 29   @ TCU L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 13, 2024 5   @ Kansas L 68-75 26%    
  Jan 17, 2024 105   West Virginia W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 20, 2024 36   @ Cincinnati L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 23, 2024 25   Texas W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 27, 2024 54   Texas Tech W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 30, 2024 55   @ Kansas St. W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 79   @ Central Florida W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 06, 2024 9   BYU L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 10, 2024 86   Oklahoma St. W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 13, 2024 7   @ Baylor L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 17, 2024 5   Kansas L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 24, 2024 86   @ Oklahoma St. W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 28, 2024 24   @ Iowa St. L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 02, 2024 3   Houston L 63-67 38%    
  Mar 05, 2024 36   Cincinnati W 75-71 65%    
  Mar 09, 2024 25   @ Texas L 72-75 41%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.8 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.9 0.9 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.3 5.1 1.3 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 5.3 2.1 0.2 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.6 3.2 0.3 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.4 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 4.2 6.3 9.3 11.8 13.3 13.6 12.1 10.9 7.2 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2
15-3 75.3% 1.7    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.0% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 10.8% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.5% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 2.2 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.2% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 2.9 0.5 2.1 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 10.9% 99.9% 9.5% 90.4% 3.7 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 12.1% 99.9% 8.2% 91.7% 4.7 0.1 0.3 2.0 3.2 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-8 13.6% 99.0% 5.4% 93.6% 5.8 0.0 0.6 1.7 3.5 3.8 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 13.3% 96.7% 5.9% 90.9% 7.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.8 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.4 96.5%
8-10 11.8% 85.7% 4.4% 81.3% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.6 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.0 1.7 85.1%
7-11 9.3% 57.1% 3.4% 53.7% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 55.6%
6-12 6.3% 22.9% 1.6% 21.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 21.6%
5-13 4.2% 8.0% 2.3% 5.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 5.9%
4-14 1.9% 4.6% 4.1% 0.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.5%
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 81.7% 6.4% 75.3% 5.6 3.6 6.7 10.5 10.4 10.9 10.3 8.2 6.8 5.0 5.1 3.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 18.3 80.5%