Oklahoma
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#43
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#54
Pace63.4#306
Improvement+0.6#110

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#48
First Shot+8.3#11
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#348
Layup/Dunks+7.7#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#91
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement+0.3#123

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#49
First Shot+4.4#58
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#114
Layups/Dunks-2.3#272
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#14
Freethrows+1.2#86
Improvement+0.3#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 5.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 43.1% 19.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.8% 39.9% 16.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.2 10.4
.500 or above 45.1% 67.4% 36.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 5.7% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.1% 18.2% 42.0%
First Four9.1% 12.4% 7.8%
First Round22.3% 37.3% 16.3%
Second Round10.3% 18.4% 7.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 6.4% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.8% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 103 - 10
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 12
Quad 22 - 39 - 16
Quad 33 - 011 - 16
Quad 44 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. L 51-52 74%     0 - 1 +2.8 -17.7 +20.5
  Nov 11, 2022 331   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 66-58 97%     1 - 1 -4.8 -7.8 +3.2
  Nov 15, 2022 152   UNC Wilmington W 74-53 88%     2 - 1 +19.0 +12.6 +9.4
  Nov 18, 2022 182   South Alabama W 64-60 90%     3 - 1 +0.8 -4.1 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2022 94   Nebraska W 69-56 70%     4 - 1 +18.2 +12.4 +7.9
  Nov 25, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 77-64 49%     5 - 1 +23.7 +17.7 +6.9
  Nov 27, 2022 95   Mississippi W 59-55 70%     6 - 1 +9.0 +2.1 +7.7
  Dec 03, 2022 62   @ Villanova L 66-70 47%     6 - 2 +7.2 +13.0 -6.8
  Dec 06, 2022 259   UMKC W 75-53 95%     7 - 2 +14.1 +6.0 +9.9
  Dec 10, 2022 18   Arkansas L 78-88 37%     7 - 3 +3.9 +15.5 -11.8
  Dec 17, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 87-66 98%     8 - 3 +7.3 +8.3 -0.7
  Dec 20, 2022 40   Florida W 62-53 47%     9 - 3 +20.2 +0.6 +19.9
  Dec 31, 2022 10   Texas L 69-70 40%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +12.1 +7.0 +5.0
  Jan 04, 2023 22   Iowa St. L 60-63 48%     9 - 5 0 - 2 +8.0 +5.4 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech W 68-63 OT 42%     10 - 5 1 - 2 +17.6 -0.7 +18.1
  Jan 10, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 75-79 20%     10 - 6 1 - 3 +15.4 +10.2 +5.3
  Jan 14, 2023 23   West Virginia W 77-76 49%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +11.8 +15.4 -3.5
  Jan 18, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 56-72 34%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -1.3 -5.4 +4.0
  Jan 21, 2023 14   Baylor L 60-62 44%     11 - 8 2 - 5 +10.0 -1.7 +11.5
  Jan 24, 2023 15   @ TCU L 52-79 25%     11 - 9 2 - 6 -9.6 -10.6 +0.7
  Jan 28, 2023 2   Alabama W 93-69 29%     12 - 9 +40.3 +23.5 +15.4
  Feb 01, 2023 35   Oklahoma St. L 61-71 55%     12 - 10 2 - 7 -0.8 -2.5 +1.5
  Feb 04, 2023 23   @ West Virginia L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 08, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 11, 2023 7   Kansas L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 14, 2023 28   Kansas St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 10   @ Texas L 66-74 22%    
  Feb 21, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 69-66 64%    
  Feb 25, 2023 22   @ Iowa St. L 60-66 28%    
  Mar 01, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 67-72 31%    
  Mar 04, 2023 15   TCU L 69-70 45%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.7 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.6 3.0 0.2 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.5 10.7 7.8 1.1 0.0 24.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 10.8 17.2 10.0 1.8 0.0 42.0 9th
10th 1.8 6.7 7.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 20.1 10th
Total 1.9 8.7 19.2 25.1 22.4 14.4 6.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 11.8% 0.0    0.0
10-8 1.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.8% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 6.1% 98.0% 6.0% 92.0% 7.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 97.9%
7-11 14.4% 76.8% 5.4% 71.4% 10.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.1 3.7 0.1 3.3 75.5%
6-12 22.4% 22.2% 5.3% 16.9% 11.3 0.2 3.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 17.4 17.8%
5-13 25.1% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 24.0 0.1%
4-14 19.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.5 0.3 0.4 18.5
3-15 8.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.4
2-16 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 1.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.3% 4.6% 21.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 5.6 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 73.7 22.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9% 2.6% 16.0 2.6