Oklahoma
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.6 51
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 59
Pace 67.6 212
Improvement -1.0 221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 24 B A B+ C+ C+
Defense C+ 132 C+ C C- C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 235 C+ 61% 111 -0.2 184
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 311 A 48% 13 +0.3 157
Three Pointers 46% 67 B 37% 77 +4.6 40
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 147 B +4.2 52
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 53
Second Chance B- 34.1% 78 A+ 1.28 3 A 0.44 16
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 27
Freethrows C+ 0.32 146 B- 75% 110 C+ 0.24 122
Total Offense A- +9.2 24

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 273 C+ 10.5% 148
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 342 C 4.9% 174
Three Pointers C 84% 194 C 1.0% 202
Total C- 52% 248 C+ 5.1% 120

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 273 B- 54% 81 -3.1 79
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 59 C+ 37% 126 +1.3 292
Three Pointers 40% 226 C- 35% 220 -0.1 172
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 61 C+ -1.2 127
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.98 114
Second Chance C 30.5% 183 C 1.02 177 C 0.31 183
Turnovers C- 16.2% 214
Freethrows B- 0.28 109 D+ 74% 263 C+ 0.21 130
Total Defense C+ +1.4 132

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 53 C 11.6% 150
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 137 C+ 6.2% 91
Three Pointers C- 86% 234 B 1.7% 50
Total B- 52% 111 C+ 6.3% 122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 99 18.5 328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 225 0.08 5
Improvement -0.3 #203 -0.6 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 64 52 43
Conference Record 3 - 15 5 - 13 7 - 11
Conference Finish 15 13 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4% 6% 1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 10.9
.500 or above 42% 62% 24%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 11% 3% 19%
First Four3% 5% 1%
First Round2% 4% 1%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 24 - 57 - 17
Quad 32 - 09 - 17
Quad 47 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 355 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 66 99% +11  90% 1 - 0 A +18 A- +11 B- A+ B+ B+ +6 B C C
 Sat, Nov 8 10 @Gonzaga L 68 - 83 14% -13  9% 1 - 1 B- +7 C +0 C C+ C- A- +8 B+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 11 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 95 - 69 98% +9  87% 2 - 1 B+ +12 A +13 B- A+ B C -0 B- D- B+
 Sat, Nov 15 13 Nebraska L 99 - 105 21% +3  67% 2 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +33 A+ A+ A+ F -20 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 338 Oral Roberts W 95 - 71 98% +19  97% 3 - 2 B +9 A +12 C- A+ A+ C- -3 B- F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 349 Alcorn St. W 72 - 53 99% +5  70% 4 - 2 C+ +3 F -10 F F A+ A+ +13 C- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 87 Marquette W 75 - 74 66% -4  17% 5 - 2 B- +7 A- +11 B+ A+ A+ D+ -4 C- A F
 Tue, Dec 2 61 @Wake Forest W 86 - 68 44% +4  62% 6 - 2 A+ +30 A +13 A A+ A- A+ +17 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 63 Arizona St. L 70 - 86 57% -16  4% 6 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 F B- B+ C- -2 C- F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 62 Oklahoma St. W 85 - 76 56% +4  73% 7 - 3 A +18 A- +10 B B- A+ A- +8 A A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 360 UMKC W 89 - 67 99% +19  96% 8 - 3 C+ +3 B +7 D A A+ D+ -5 D+ D B+
 Mon, Dec 22 327 Stetson W 107 - 54 98% +25  99% 9 - 3 A+ +39 A+ +27 A+ A+ B+ A+ +14 A+ C- B
 Mon, Dec 29 365 Mississippi Valley W 93 - 69 100% +9  75% 10 - 3 C- -3 A+ +20 A+ A+ A- F -19 F D- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 73 Mississippi W 86 - 70 71% +5  81% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +17 A+ A A+ B +5 A- B D
 Wed, Jan 7 69 @Mississippi St. L 53 - 72 48% -5  17% 11 - 4 1 - 1 D+ -8 F -13 F C- F B +4 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 35 @Texas A&M L 76 - 83 26% -1  35% 11 - 5 1 - 2 B +10 B+ +7 C A+ F B- +3 B A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 4 Florida L 79 - 96 18% -16  1% 11 - 6 1 - 3 C+ +3 A +14 A A+ B- F -10 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 19 Alabama L 81 - 83 32% +2  56% 11 - 7 1 - 4 B+ +13 C+ +3 D+ A+ B A +10 A B- B
 Tue, Jan 20 94 @South Carolina L 76 - 85 58% -8  0% 11 - 8 1 - 5 C -0 C+ +3 C- A+ C+ D+ -4 D- B+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 49 @Missouri L 87 - 88 OT 37% +0  50% 11 - 9 1 - 6 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ F B- B- +3 A+ D+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 17 Arkansas L 79 - 83 32% +2  59% 11 - 10 1 - 7 B+ +12 B+ +9 B+ A- C+ B- +2 A- C D-
 Sat, Jan 31 27 Texas L 69 - 79 43% +4  76% 11 - 11 1 - 8 C+ +2 C- -2 D A+ B- B- +3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 25 @Kentucky L 78 - 94 22% -8  11% 11 - 12 1 - 9 C+ +3 A+ +16 A- C A+ F -15 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 14 @Vanderbilt W 92 - 91 15% +13  99% 12 - 12 2 - 9 A +23 A+ +21 A+ A+ C+ B- +2 A F A
 Sat, Feb 14 36 Georgia W 94 - 78 48% +4  52% 13 - 12 3 - 9 A+ +27 A+ +33 A+ B- A+ D+ -4 D C B-
 Wed, Feb 18 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 89 15% -10  0% 13 - 13 3 - 10 C -1 B +6 A B- F F+ -9 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 21 35 Texas A&M L 82 - 83 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 33 Auburn L 81 - 82 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 54 @LSU L 77 - 80 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 49 Missouri W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Mar 7 27 @Texas L 78 - 86 23%
Totals 15 - 16 5 - 13 +11 A- +9 D+ B C+ C+ +1 B B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- C+ A B B 37% 26% 46% C+ B B- A+ A B+ C+ B- C+ C+ B- C+ C- C+ 36% 25% 40% B C+ C C C C- B- D+ C+
1.22 61% 48% 37% +4 0 1.11 34% 1.3 .44 14% .32 75% .24 1.07 54% 37% 35% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.0 .31 16% .28 74% .23
Nov
3		 St. Francis (PA) A- B A+ D+ C 57% 2% 41% A+ B- B+ A A+ B+ F C F+ B+ D- A+ B B- 34% 38% 28% A B D B C C A C A
1.38 70% 100% 33% +7 +4 1.24 40% 1.4 .57 15% .29 72% .21 0.89 65% 23% 31% -5 -3 0.88 30% 0.8 .25 19% .17 70% .12
Nov
8		 Gonzaga C B- A F C 24% 26% 50% C C C B+ C+ C- B- A+ A A- B F+ B+ A 48% 20% 33% F B+ C A+ A F+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 58% 46% 24% -5 -2 0.88 22% 1.0 .22 22% .31 89% .28 1.12 59% 50% 30% +1 +1 1.05 37% 0.9 .33 9% .16 45% .07
Nov
11		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A C C+ B C+ 38% 10% 52% B- B- A+ A- A+ B B- C B- C B- B C+ B- 31% 30% 39% B B- F B- D- B+ B- D- C+
1.36 60% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.12 53% 1.3 .69 13% .39 75% .30 0.99 53% 31% 33% -4 -2 0.91 36% 0.9 .31 22% .27 80% .22
Nov
15		 Nebraska A+ A+ A+ A A+ 23% 16% 61% A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 42% 9% 49% D+ F C A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.38 77% 56% 38% +11 0 1.23 29% 1.4 .42 14% .34 90% .31 1.47 77% 20% 58% +24 +2 1.53 28% 0.5 .14 7% .42 79% .33
Nov
20		 Oral Roberts A B- B+ F+ C 43% 22% 34% D C- C- A+ A+ A+ B- C- C+ C- A B C- C+ 30% 26% 45% A B- F F F A+ C F D+
1.35 60% 46% 30% +1 0 1.03 32% 1.8 .57 4% .34 70% .24 1.01 43% 33% 33% -6 -1 0.87 37% 1.4 .51 26% .29 80% .23
Nov
23		 Alcorn St. F F F F F 32% 13% 55% D+ F C- F F A+ A+ D- A A+ B A+ F D+ 34% 30% 36% B C- B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A- A-
1.05 47% 14% 28% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.9 .33 10% .45 68% .31 0.77 50% 21% 47% -1 -1 0.98 20% 0.3 .06 28% .16 63% .10
Nov
28		 Marquette A- A+ F B+ B+ 35% 19% 46% C B+ C A+ A+ A+ F F F D+ A+ F F+ D+ 41% 14% 45% A- C- F A+ A F B+ D B-
1.19 72% 20% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.5 .48 13% .16 67% .11 1.17 43% 71% 39% +2 +1 1.08 41% 0.5 .21 8% .26 73% .19
Dec
2		 Wake Forest A A A+ C A 43% 13% 45% B A A A A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A- A A+ 27% 22% 51% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B F D- F
1.19 70% 50% 33% +6 +1 1.17 40% 1.2 .48 17% .58 74% .43 0.94 43% 36% 27% -10 -1 0.80 22% 0.9 .20 17% .45 81% .37
Dec
6		 Arizona St. D F A+ F F 42% 4% 55% A+ F C+ B- B- B+ A+ F B+ C- A+ A+ F C 40% 11% 49% F+ C- B+ F F C+ F A F
0.96 41% 50% 24% -15 +2 0.77 33% 1.1 .37 18% .44 62% .27 1.18 42% 0% 52% +3 +1 1.11 28% 1.9 .53 16% .56 68% .38
Dec
13		 Oklahoma St. A- D B+ A- B+ 33% 16% 51% C- B C+ B B- A+ B A A- A- A+ D C- A 43% 20% 37% A- A A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A
1.18 50% 44% 39% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.2 .35 12% .32 80% .25 1.05 42% 42% 36% -5 0 0.93 22% 0.7 .16 7% .24 81% .19
Dec
16		 UMKC B A- B F D- 44% 12% 44% B- D C+ A+ A A+ B- F C- D+ A+ A+ F D+ 36% 26% 38% C- D+ B- F D B+ F D F
1.27 69% 43% 23% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .51 11% .31 58% .18 0.95 41% 25% 44% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 23% .41 73% .29
Dec
22		 Stetson A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 45% 12% 43% B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A D- B+ A+ F D A+ A+ 16% 34% 50% A+ A+ C D+ C- B A- D- B
1.57 87% 33% 55% +26 +2 1.57 39% 1.7 .65 12% .37 68% .25 0.79 75% 41% 12% -13 -3 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 21% .22 75% .17
Dec
29		 Mississippi Valley A+ A A+ A+ A+ 23% 15% 62% D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A- F C+ F+ F A+ D- F F 33% 35% 33% D- F C- F D- F+ D F F+
1.52 73% 71% 45% +18 0 1.38 46% 1.5 .69 13% .32 76% .24 1.12 40% 44% 53% +6 -2 1.09 25% 1.1 .29 16% .31 81% .25
Jan
3		 Mississippi A+ C+ A+ A A+ 40% 13% 47% A- A+ C- A+ A A+ C C C B A+ A+ F A- 22% 35% 43% B- A- A- C B D D+ B+ C-
1.28 57% 57% 40% +6 +1 1.17 28% 1.6 .44 10% .32 68% .22 1.04 45% 28% 41% -2 -3 0.92 24% 1.1 .27 10% .33 70% .23
Jan
7		 Mississippi St. F F C+ F F 22% 39% 39% F+ F B F C- F A+ F A+ B C+ C- A+ A+ 33% 37% 30% A+ A+ F D F D+ F D+ F
0.81 40% 39% 17% -14 -4 0.67 31% 0.8 .24 20% .48 64% .30 1.10 60% 41% 14% -7 -3 0.83 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 71% .35
Jan
10		 Texas A&M B+ F+ C B C 30% 16% 54% C+ C A+ A A+ F C+ A B B- C+ F+ C B 36% 15% 49% A- B B A+ A+ D- F F F
1.08 47% 38% 37% -1 0 1.00 44% 1.1 .50 24% .30 81% .24 1.18 58% 50% 35% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.6 .18 11% .40 84% .34
Jan
13		 Florida A F F A+ A 38% 30% 32% C+ A A A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ F F C- A+ C- 46% 21% 32% A- C D+ F F F B+ C- B
1.12 37% 27% 63% +2 -1 1.04 30% 1.1 .32 16% .40 71% .28 1.36 77% 42% 22% +4 0 1.11 46% 1.3 .59 10% .30 74% .22
Jan
17		 Alabama C+ D C- D- D+ 33% 30% 37% C- D+ A A A+ B A- A+ A+ A D+ A+ A- A 33% 17% 50% B+ A C+ B B- B F+ A+ B-
1.08 47% 35% 29% -7 -2 0.84 37% 1.1 .41 12% .33 86% .29 1.11 67% 33% 30% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.1 .36 15% .41 58% .23
Jan
20		 South Carolina C+ A- A- F D+ 40% 17% 42% B C- C+ A+ A+ C+ A A- A+ D+ B B F D- 40% 22% 38% C+ D- C+ A B+ B F C+ F
1.06 67% 44% 18% -5 +1 0.92 31% 1.4 .44 15% .36 77% .28 1.18 55% 36% 47% +6 0 1.14 28% 0.9 .25 17% .47 79% .37
Jan
24		 Missouri A- D- A+ A+ A+ 21% 30% 49% D- A+ F F F B- A+ B- A+ B- A D- B+ A+ 41% 22% 37% B A+ D- B- D+ D F D- F
1.15 45% 56% 46% +12 -2 1.21 17% 0.6 .10 16% .47 77% .36 1.17 50% 42% 30% -5 0 0.93 41% 1.1 .46 16% .52 73% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Arkansas B+ F+ A+ B- B 46% 11% 43% A B+ B- A+ A- C+ D+ A+ B- B- F F A+ A 50% 21% 29% D+ A- A+ F C D- A+ F A
1.15 46% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.5 .46 17% .21 92% .19 1.20 76% 50% 12% +2 +1 1.07 23% 1.9 .43 9% .21 85% .17
Jan
31		 Texas C- F A+ F D 25% 27% 48% D D B- A+ A+ B- D- F F B- F F D F 37% 22% 41% B- F A+ F A+ A+ A+ B- A+
1.03 38% 50% 28% -6 -2 0.87 27% 1.6 .43 13% .28 63% .17 1.18 82% 60% 37% +16 0 1.33 22% 1.6 .35 21% .28 73% .21
Feb
4		 Kentucky A+ A F+ C+ A- 28% 13% 59% B+ A- F+ A+ C A+ B- A+ A F C C+ F F 27% 29% 44% A+ D- F+ F F F F F F
1.19 67% 29% 34% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 9% .32 89% .29 1.44 62% 36% 52% +12 -2 1.23 42% 1.4 .58 9% .45 81% .37
Feb
7		 Vanderbilt A+ A A+ C- A+ 44% 23% 33% B A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ B- A- A- D A- 28% 28% 45% A+ A D- F F A F D- F
1.24 67% 55% 31% +6 0 1.15 33% 1.6 .53 19% .48 72% .35 1.23 54% 31% 38% 0 -2 0.98 38% 1.9 .72 18% .51 84% .42
Feb
14		 Georgia A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 21% 46% C A+ A- D+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ D+ F F B+ D 40% 10% 50% C- D D+ B- C B- A- B A-
1.50 56% 60% 64% +24 0 1.50 41% 0.8 .33 11% .40 64% .25 1.25 79% 60% 29% +7 +1 1.19 40% 1.0 .40 16% .27 71% .19
Feb
18		 Tennessee B F A+ B A+ 17% 36% 48% F A C- A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ F A+ C- 52% 20% 28% D+ C- F D+ F F D- C- D-
1.00 43% 60% 35% +6 -3 1.07 22% 1.2 .26 23% .41 76% .31 1.35 69% 60% 21% +5 +1 1.14 54% 1.1 .61 11% .42 72% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.3 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.2 10th
11th 1.4 4.3 0.6 6.3 11th
12th 3.4 12.5 4.9 0.1 20.8 12th
13th 3.1 20.9 11.5 0.8 36.2 13th
14th 0.8 12.8 9.2 0.5 23.1 14th
15th 3.5 5.8 0.4 9.8 15th
16th 1.8 0.4 2.2 16th
Total 6.1 22.1 33.8 25.8 10.5 1.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 1.7% 51.9% 0.2% 51.7% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 51.8%
7-11 10.5% 19.6% 0.3% 19.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.2 8.5 19.4%
6-12 25.8% 2.5% 0.2% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 25.2 2.3%
5-13 33.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 33.7 0.1%
4-14 22.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 22.1
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 0.1% 3.5% 10.8 96.4 3.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 78.1% 9.3 9.4 37.5 31.3
Lose Out 6.1%