Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#140
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#186
Pace71.1#103
Improvement+1.4#31

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#116
First Shot+2.0#105
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#228
Freethrows+1.5#66
Improvement+1.1#32

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#184
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#320
Layups/Dunks+0.1#177
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement+0.3#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.9% 11.7% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 9
Quad 21 - 62 - 15
Quad 32 - 54 - 20
Quad 46 - 210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 199   Stetson L 74-83 71%     0 - 1 -13.2 +0.7 -14.7
  Nov 11, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 54-68 19%     0 - 2 -2.9 -9.1 +5.3
  Nov 14, 2022 149   Troy L 72-79 63%     0 - 3 -8.8 -3.7 -4.8
  Nov 18, 2022 40   Florida L 67-76 26%     0 - 4 -0.5 -1.9 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2022 228   Mercer W 81-72 76%     1 - 4 +3.1 +7.2 -3.9
  Nov 24, 2022 151   Siena L 63-80 53%     1 - 5 -16.1 -12.6 -2.6
  Nov 25, 2022 90   Stanford L 60-70 35%     1 - 6 -4.5 -10.1 +5.6
  Nov 27, 2022 94   Nebraska L 58-75 37%     1 - 7 -11.8 -10.4 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2022 4   Purdue L 69-79 11%     1 - 8 +5.4 +0.7 +4.9
  Dec 03, 2022 16   @ Virginia L 57-62 8%     1 - 9 0 - 1 +11.9 -2.3 +13.8
  Dec 10, 2022 248   Louisville W 75-53 80%     2 - 9 1 - 1 +14.8 +1.0 +14.1
  Dec 13, 2022 306   South Carolina Upstate W 80-63 87%     3 - 9 +6.3 +2.2 +3.8
  Dec 17, 2022 72   St. John's L 79-93 28%     3 - 10 -6.4 +7.9 -13.8
  Dec 21, 2022 127   Notre Dame W 73-72 58%     4 - 10 2 - 1 +0.6 +6.3 -5.6
  Dec 31, 2022 24   @ Duke L 67-86 10%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -3.0 +4.6 -8.3
  Jan 07, 2023 172   Georgia Tech W 75-64 67%     5 - 11 3 - 2 +8.2 +6.6 +2.3
  Jan 11, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest L 75-90 19%     5 - 12 3 - 3 -4.0 +3.2 -6.9
  Jan 14, 2023 16   Virginia L 58-67 18%     5 - 13 3 - 4 +2.5 +1.1 -0.2
  Jan 17, 2023 127   @ Notre Dame W 84-71 37%     6 - 13 4 - 4 +18.0 +9.1 +8.8
  Jan 21, 2023 64   @ Pittsburgh W 71-64 19%     7 - 13 5 - 4 +18.1 +8.9 +9.8
  Jan 24, 2023 34   Miami (FL) L 63-86 23%     7 - 14 5 - 5 -13.6 -9.5 -3.7
  Jan 28, 2023 60   Clemson L 81-82 33%     7 - 15 5 - 6 +5.1 +5.0 +0.2
  Feb 01, 2023 37   @ North Carolina St. L 66-94 12%     7 - 16 5 - 7 -13.8 -0.2 -13.9
  Feb 04, 2023 248   @ Louisville W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 08, 2023 75   Syracuse L 73-76 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 64   Pittsburgh L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 15, 2023 60   @ Clemson L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 18, 2023 144   Boston College W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 34   @ Miami (FL) L 70-83 11%    
  Feb 27, 2023 26   North Carolina L 71-80 22%    
  Mar 04, 2023 49   @ Virginia Tech L 67-78 14%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 5.9 2.7 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 2.2 10.3 7.5 0.6 20.6 10th
11th 0.0 2.8 15.0 14.4 2.4 0.0 34.6 11th
12th 2.7 11.8 10.6 1.7 0.0 26.8 12th
13th 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
Total 3.6 15.6 27.9 28.1 16.9 6.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
10-10 6.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.3
9-11 16.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.8
8-12 28.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 27.9
7-13 27.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 27.7
6-14 15.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.5
5-15 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.6% 0.4% 16.0 0.4