Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#26
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#31
Pace72.1#99
Improvement-0.7#242

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#36
First Shot+2.9#97
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#48
Layup/Dunks-0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows-1.3#259
Improvement-0.6#244

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#22
First Shot+9.7#7
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#301
Layups/Dunks+8.9#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-0.1#197
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
#1 Seed 2.7% 4.8% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 7.1% 13.6% 5.5%
Top 4 Seed 21.3% 35.2% 17.9%
Top 6 Seed 39.4% 57.5% 35.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.5% 92.1% 76.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.6% 90.5% 73.4%
Average Seed 6.6 5.7 6.8
.500 or above 97.5% 99.6% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 94.0% 87.9%
Conference Champion 16.3% 21.9% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four5.2% 3.8% 5.6%
First Round77.1% 90.3% 73.9%
Second Round51.4% 64.1% 48.3%
Sweet Sixteen24.2% 32.5% 22.2%
Elite Eight10.8% 15.3% 9.7%
Final Four4.6% 6.7% 4.1%
Championship Game2.1% 3.2% 1.9%
National Champion0.9% 1.2% 0.8%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 7
Quad 27 - 211 - 9
Quad 37 - 118 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 192   Penn W 105-70 94%     1 - 0 +30.6 +16.1 +10.1
  Nov 14, 2021 14   @ Florida L 55-71 31%     1 - 1 +2.5 -6.6 +8.7
  Nov 17, 2021 163   Tulane W 59-54 92%     2 - 1 +2.3 -6.6 +9.4
  Nov 21, 2021 129   Loyola Marymount W 73-45 84%     3 - 1 +30.4 -1.1 +31.5
  Nov 22, 2021 128   Missouri W 81-58 84%     4 - 1 +25.5 +14.4 +11.9
  Nov 24, 2021 141   Boston University W 81-80 OT 91%     5 - 1 -0.2 +1.8 -2.1
  Nov 30, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 69-78 19%    
  Dec 04, 2021 76   Syracuse W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 12, 2021 99   South Carolina W 78-70 78%    
  Dec 15, 2021 220   Lipscomb W 83-64 96%    
  Dec 18, 2021 65   Central Florida W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 21, 2021 287   North Florida W 85-62 98%    
  Dec 29, 2021 125   @ Boston College W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 01, 2022 63   @ North Carolina St. W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 04, 2022 87   @ Wake Forest W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 08, 2022 36   Louisville W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 11, 2022 120   Miami (FL) W 79-66 89%    
  Jan 15, 2022 76   @ Syracuse W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 17, 2022 4   Duke L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 22, 2022 120   @ Miami (FL) W 76-69 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 88   @ Georgia Tech W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 27   Virginia Tech W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 02, 2022 47   @ Clemson W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 05, 2022 87   Wake Forest W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 09, 2022 214   Pittsburgh W 78-60 95%    
  Feb 12, 2022 43   @ North Carolina W 79-78 50%    
  Feb 15, 2022 47   Clemson W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 19, 2022 4   @ Duke L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 39   @ Virginia L 60-61 48%    
  Mar 02, 2022 64   Notre Dame W 76-67 77%    
  Mar 05, 2022 63   North Carolina St. W 77-68 77%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 4.9 3.1 1.3 0.3 16.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.5 6.4 4.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.2 3.6 0.8 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.6 3.5 5.7 2.6 0.5 0.1 12.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.0 2.2 0.3 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.5 0.4 5.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.2 4.9 6.9 10.0 11.7 13.5 12.9 12.7 9.7 6.7 3.4 1.3 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.2% 1.3    1.3 0.1
18-2 92.3% 3.1    2.6 0.6
17-3 72.6% 4.9    3.0 1.6 0.2
16-4 43.5% 4.2    1.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
15-5 16.4% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 9.5 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.4% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 2.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 6.7% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 3.2 0.6 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-4 9.7% 99.9% 20.2% 79.7% 4.3 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 12.7% 99.8% 17.2% 82.7% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.0 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.8%
14-6 12.9% 97.8% 13.9% 84.0% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.5%
13-7 13.5% 93.3% 11.1% 82.2% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.6 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.9 92.5%
12-8 11.7% 83.6% 6.3% 77.3% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.4 1.8 0.3 1.9 82.5%
11-9 10.0% 64.7% 3.5% 61.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.5 63.4%
10-10 6.9% 42.4% 2.4% 39.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 4.0 40.9%
9-11 4.9% 16.9% 1.8% 15.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 15.4%
8-12 3.2% 5.4% 1.6% 3.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0 3.8%
7-13 1.6% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.3%
6-14 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.5% 12.4% 67.1% 6.6 2.7 4.4 6.7 7.5 8.9 9.2 9.1 8.5 7.8 6.7 6.1 1.9 0.1 20.5 76.6%