Mount St. Mary's
Northeast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#293
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#260
Pace61.1#339
Improvement+1.3#88

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#330
First Shot-5.2#315
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#242
Layup/Dunks-8.0#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#286
Freethrows+3.4#25
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#215
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#341
Layups/Dunks+1.3#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#64
Freethrows-1.2#258
Improvement+1.4#68
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 7.1% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 20.0% 40.9% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 50.2% 61.1% 49.5%
Conference Champion 2.8% 5.0% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 3.2% 6.4%
First Four3.2% 4.0% 3.1%
First Round2.7% 4.9% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 412 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 7   @ Villanova L 51-91 1%     0 - 1 -19.1 -7.2 -17.3
  Nov 13, 2021 207   @ Saint Joseph's L 60-80 21%     0 - 2 -18.8 -12.1 -7.0
  Nov 16, 2021 15   @ Kentucky L 55-80 2%     0 - 3 -6.8 -7.0 -1.2
  Nov 19, 2021 307   @ Robert Morris W 74-70 OT 42%     1 - 3 -1.4 -12.2 +10.3
  Nov 22, 2021 89   @ Ohio L 59-73 7%     1 - 4 -5.1 -4.7 -1.7
  Nov 27, 2021 108   Navy L 40-67 21%     1 - 5 -25.9 -27.4 -0.2
  Nov 30, 2021 274   Howard W 72-70 56%     2 - 5 -7.1 -4.0 -3.0
  Dec 04, 2021 277   @ Loyola Maryland L 55-61 34%     2 - 6 -9.3 -12.4 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2021 83   @ Santa Clara L 59-76 6%    
  Dec 11, 2021 329   American W 68-61 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 314   Morgan St. W 68-63 67%    
  Dec 22, 2021 201   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 64-67 40%    
  Dec 29, 2021 326   Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 31, 2021 120   Wagner L 57-65 24%    
  Jan 06, 2022 268   @ LIU Brooklyn L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 337   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 15, 2022 258   @ Bryant L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 17, 2022 240   @ Merrimack L 53-59 28%    
  Jan 21, 2022 291   Sacred Heart W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 23, 2022 347   Central Connecticut St. W 68-58 80%    
  Jan 27, 2022 326   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 231   St. Francis (PA) L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 240   Merrimack L 55-56 49%    
  Feb 05, 2022 258   Bryant W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 10, 2022 120   @ Wagner L 54-68 11%    
  Feb 12, 2022 231   @ St. Francis (PA) L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 17, 2022 337   St. Francis Brooklyn W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 268   LIU Brooklyn W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 291   @ Sacred Heart L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 26, 2022 347   @ Central Connecticut St. W 65-61 63%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.9 3.7 0.5 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.2 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 2.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 9.9 12.7 14.1 14.0 12.4 9.6 6.7 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 95.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 69.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 46.0% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 18.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 32.3% 32.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 31.1% 31.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 22.9% 22.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-4 2.0% 20.3% 20.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6
13-5 4.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.9 0.1 0.6 3.6
12-6 6.7% 13.0% 13.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.8
11-7 9.6% 9.9% 9.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9 8.6
10-8 12.4% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.7
9-9 14.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.4 13.7
8-10 14.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 14.0
7-11 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 9.9% 9.9
5-13 6.6% 6.6
4-14 3.7% 3.7
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.0 95.6 0.0%