Mount St. Mary's
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#254
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#168
Pace69.6#169
Improvement-1.2#255

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#315
First Shot-5.1#313
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#192
Layup/Dunks+0.2#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#341
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement-2.4#333

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#165
First Shot+2.4#105
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#321
Layups/Dunks-1.3#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#126
Freethrows+1.8#74
Improvement+1.2#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 10.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 61.3% 69.3% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 68.5% 44.0%
Conference Champion 8.7% 11.4% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 3.2% 10.2%
First Four1.9% 2.1% 1.7%
First Round7.6% 9.0% 4.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 32 - 7
Quad 415 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 52-86 3%     0 - 1 -16.4 -11.5 -4.7
  Nov 13, 2024 260   @ Bucknell W 93-89 2OT 40%     1 - 1 +1.4 +4.7 -4.0
  Nov 16, 2024 339   St. Francis (PA) W 66-58 79%     2 - 1 -5.7 -11.5 +6.0
  Nov 20, 2024 98   @ Georgetown L 51-79 11%     2 - 2 -19.6 -17.7 -1.8
  Nov 23, 2024 348   Delaware St. W 76-66 83%     3 - 2 -5.3 +2.8 -7.3
  Nov 30, 2024 284   @ Howard W 79-75 44%     4 - 2 +0.5 -1.0 +1.4
  Dec 06, 2024 242   @ Marist L 50-53 36%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -4.3 -16.9 +12.3
  Dec 08, 2024 283   Fairfield W 71-67 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 335   Loyola Maryland W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 18, 2024 342   @ LIU Brooklyn W 71-68 63%    
  Dec 21, 2024 87   @ Miami (FL) L 67-81 9%    
  Dec 28, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 58-73 9%    
  Jan 05, 2025 308   Niagara W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 10, 2025 313   @ Manhattan L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 12, 2025 269   Sacred Heart W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 16, 2025 257   @ Rider L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 302   @ Siena L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 313   Manhattan W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 31, 2025 222   @ Merrimack L 61-66 34%    
  Feb 02, 2025 209   @ St. Peter's L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 274   Iona W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 14, 2025 308   @ Niagara L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 16, 2025 345   @ Canisius W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 21, 2025 209   St. Peter's W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 257   Rider W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 28, 2025 283   @ Fairfield L 68-70 44%    
  Mar 02, 2025 302   Siena W 68-63 68%    
  Mar 06, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 70-74 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 242   Marist W 66-64 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.9 2.0 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 4.2 0.7 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 2.6 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.1 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.1 7.5 9.7 11.5 12.7 12.5 11.1 9.3 6.7 4.2 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 95.1% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-4 85.9% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 64.1% 2.7    1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 29.5% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 7.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 34.1% 34.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.9% 35.0% 35.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6
16-4 2.5% 28.4% 28.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.8
15-5 4.2% 23.1% 23.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.2
14-6 6.7% 18.6% 18.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 5.5
13-7 9.3% 17.4% 17.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 7.7
12-8 11.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 9.7
11-9 12.5% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 11.5
10-10 12.7% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.2
9-11 11.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 11.1
8-12 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.5
7-13 7.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.4
6-14 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 4.4 91.5 0.0%