N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #279
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 #275
Pace 72.3 #84
Improvement +2.3 #85

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #251 D+ C+ D A- D
Defense #287 D+ B- F+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #275 1.11 #243 -2.8 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #42 0.78 #140 +3.4 #36
Three Pointers 36% #279 0.91 #319 -4.4 #321
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #300 -3.9 #301
Freethrows 0.37 #21 75% #87 0.28 #19
Second Chance 30.4% #187 1.09 #87 0.33 #133
Turnovers 19.4% #313
Total Offense -3.0 #251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #106 1.15 #164 -1.6 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #177 0.84 #304 -0.8 #254
Three Pointers 38% #266 1.11 #315 -0.2 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #266 -2.6 #267
Freethrows 0.33 #261 69% #40 0.23 #211
Second Chance 27.0% #62 0.98 #118 0.27 #66
Turnovers 12.7% #354
Total Defense -3.7 #287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #322 0.4% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #270 4.6% #272
Possession Length 17.5 #199 16.4 #50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #93 0.25 #358
Improvement +3.2 #46 -0.8 #233

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 0.5% 1.6% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 65.7% 43.7% 70.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 87 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 8% -14  0 - 1 -10 -2 C F C -6 D- D- B
 Mon, Nov 10 357 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 84% +14  1 - 1 +6 -7 D- F+ F +9 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 354 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 66% +4  2 - 1 -5 +1 C B F -6 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 112 @Davidson L 74 - 90 11% -9  2 - 2 -10 +9 A- D C+ -20 F F+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 156 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 18% -17  2 - 3 -14 -13 F D+ F -2 F+ C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 342 @NC Central W 69 - 54 58% -1  3 - 3 +6 -10 F C F +16 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 250 Howard L 69 - 73 43% -8  3 - 4 -9 -1 F A+ D+ -8 F A+ C-
 Fri, Dec 12 347 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 78% -2  4 - 4 -12 +5 C- B+ D -17 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 310 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 46% +6  5 - 4 +0 -2 F C- D+ +3 B C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 116 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 25% +1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -1 C- D- B+ -7 D- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 257 Northeastern L 74 - 85 56% -4  5 - 6 0 - 2 -19 -1 F+ B- C+ -19 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 218 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 26% -4  5 - 7 0 - 3 -1 +13 D+ A+ D+ -14 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 194 Elon L 64 - 69 44% -6  5 - 8 0 - 4 -10 -12 F B+ D- +2 A B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 149 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 16% -7  5 - 9 0 - 5 -4 +10 A+ C+ F -14 F C+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 256 @Hampton L 61 - 82 33% -5  5 - 10 0 - 6 -23 -6 D- F B- -19 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 126 Hofstra W 79 - 78 28% -5  6 - 10 1 - 6 +0 +9 C- A+ C+ -9 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 157 Towson W 80 - 73 36% +4  7 - 10 2 - 6 +4 +6 A+ D+ F+ -3 D A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 213 @Monmouth L 81 - 83 OT 26% +2  7 - 11 2 - 7 -2 +6 F+ A+ D -8 C+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 204 @Drexel L 60 - 61 25% -6  7 - 12 2 - 8 -1 -4 D- F+ C +3 B- D D
 Thu, Feb 5 152 @College of Charleston L 72 - 82 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 217 Campbell L 81 - 82 47%
 Fri, Feb 13 256 Hampton L 71 - 72 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 152 College of Charleston L 75 - 79 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 @Elon L 75 - 83 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 116 @UNC Wilmington L 68 - 81 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 William & Mary L 82 - 86 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 217 @Campbell L 78 - 85 27%
Totals 9 - 18 4 - 14 -7 -3 D+ C+ D -4 D+ B- F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.7 0.3 2.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.2 3.5 6.5 0.9 11.1 11th
12th 0.3 4.1 11.9 16.1 4.2 0.1 36.7 12th
13th 6.3 16.7 14.4 5.7 0.3 43.4 13th
Total 6.6 20.8 26.5 25.6 13.6 5.5 1.2 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.2% 13.6% 13.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 5.5% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 25.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 25.5
4-14 26.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.5
3-15 20.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.8
2-16 6.6% 6.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.6 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.6%