N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.3 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 #276
Pace 72.4 #90
Improvement -0.5 #203

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #271 D A+ C D- D-
Defense #321 D- C- B+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 1.10 #242 -3.0 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #43 0.76 #160 +3.2 #46
Three Pointers 36% #277 0.88 #314 -4.8 #318
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #301 -4.5 #301
Freethrows 21.8 #18 76% #78 16.6 #13
Second Chance 31.3% #162 1.07 #150 0.33 #146
Turnovers 19.0% #312
Total Offense -3.5 #271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #63 1.16 #165 -2.8 #271
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #215 0.86 #308 -0.5 #225
Three Pointers 37% #278 1.19 #347 -1.4 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #320 -4.7 #318
Freethrows 19.7 #298 68% #36 13.4 #247
Second Chance 27.7% #82 0.94 #64 0.26 #43
Turnovers 12.6% #356
Total Defense -4.8 #321

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #321 1.1% #274
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #279 8.1% #315
Possession Length 17.8 #228 15.8 #23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #95 0.27 #360
Improvement +2.3 #42 -2.8 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 1.9% 4.3% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 3.7% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 65.9% 49.8% 74.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 102 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 87 @South Carolina L 72-91 6%     -14.1   0 - 1 -9.3 -1.7 -6.2
  Mon, Nov 10 359 South Carolina St. W 85-62 82%     13.7   1 - 1 +5.0 -6.3 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 18 361 @Morgan St. W 79-73 68%     3.7   2 - 1 -7.1 +0.6 -7.7
  Fri, Nov 28 139 @Davidson L 74-90 12%     -9.0   2 - 2 -11.7 +8.6 -21.3
  Tue, Dec 2 177 @Charlotte L 57-74 17%     -13.3   2 - 3 -15.3 -13.3 -3.1
  Sat, Dec 6 347 @NC Central W 69-54 53%     -0.6   3 - 3 +5.8 -8.2 +13.6
  Tue, Dec 9 277 Howard L 69-73 43%     -7.6   3 - 4 -10.5 -1.9 -8.8
  Fri, Dec 12 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-79 72%     -1.8   4 - 4 -11.5 +4.9 -16.4
  Tue, Dec 16 279 @UNC Greensboro W 71-65 33%     6.4   5 - 4 +2.4 -0.2 +3.1
  Mon, Dec 29 124 UNC Wilmington L 78-87 23%     0.6   5 - 5 0 - 1 -9.5 -0.5 -8.3
  Wed, Dec 31 223 Northeastern L 74-85 43%     -3.9   5 - 6 0 - 2 -17.5 +1.1 -19.4
  Sat, Jan 3 261 @Stony Brook L 80-81 30%     -3.8   5 - 7 0 - 3 -3.7 +12.2 -16.0
  Thu, Jan 8 165 Elon L 78-83 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 119 @William & Mary L 76-90 10%    
  Mon, Jan 19 237 @Hampton L 68-75 26%    
  Thu, Jan 22 113 Hofstra L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 162 Towson L 67-72 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 210 @Monmouth L 70-78 22%    
  Sat, Jan 31 264 @Drexel L 69-74 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 150 @College of Charleston L 71-83 14%    
  Sat, Feb 7 209 Campbell L 79-81 42%    
  Fri, Feb 13 237 Hampton L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Feb 19 150 College of Charleston L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 165 @Elon L 75-86 17%    
  Thu, Feb 26 124 @UNC Wilmington L 65-79 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 119 William & Mary L 79-87 23%    
  Tue, Mar 3 209 @Campbell L 76-84 23%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 3.1 0.3 11.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 5.1 8.9 5.3 0.8 0.0 21.8 12th
13th 3.4 10.0 15.0 14.0 7.1 1.3 0.1 50.9 13th
Total 3.4 10.2 16.5 19.3 18.4 13.6 9.2 5.2 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 7.9% 7.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
7-11 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.2
6-12 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-13 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-14 18.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.3
3-15 19.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.3
2-16 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.5
1-17 10.2% 10.2
0-18 3.4% 3.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%