N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 282
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 277
Pace 71.7 97
Improvement +1.7 116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 265 D C D A- D
Defense D+ 274 D+ B- D- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 266 D+ 55% 253 -2.6 280
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 24 C 38% 180 +3.1 47
Three Pointers 35% 293 D 31% 303 -4.5 323
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 325 D+ -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 306
Second Chance C 29.8% 199 C+ 1.07 112 C 0.32 153
Turnovers D 18.9% 305
Freethrows B+ 0.36 21 B- 75% 104 A- 0.27 23
Total Offense D+ -3.6 265

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 133 C- 11.7% 231
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 192 C- 6.2% 257
Three Pointers D 77% 320 C 1.0% 201
Total D+ 51% 288 D+ 6.3% 260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 100 C 58% 179 +2.0 247
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 184 D 42% 311 +0.7 243
Three Pointers 38% 270 D 37% 308 +0.1 186
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 221 D+ +2.4 270
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 266
Second Chance B 26.8% 58 C- 1.05 220 B- 0.28 85
Turnovers D- 13.6% 342
Freethrows C- 0.32 242 B+ 69% 40 C 0.22 203
Total Defense D+ -3.4 274

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 343 C+ 12.5% 114
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 33% 315 C 5.3% 145
Three Pointers C- 86% 320 D+ 0.4% 201
Total D 62% 310 C+ 6.4% 117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 202 16.4 32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 114 0.25 360
Improvement +1.7 #105 +0.0 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 47% 27% 58%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 35.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 94 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 8% -14  0% 0 - 1 D -10 D+ -4 C F C D -5 F+ D- B
 Mon, Nov 10 357 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 85% +14  87% 1 - 1 B- +5 F+ -9 F+ D- F A +11 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 353 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 65% +4  84% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -2 C B+ F C- -3 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 112 @Davidson L 74 - 90 11% -9  6% 2 - 2 D -10 B +7 A- D B- F -17 F F+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 177 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 20% -17  0% 2 - 3 F+ -15 F -16 F D F C +0 F+ D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 350 @NC Central W 69 - 54 62% -1  30% 3 - 3 C+ +5 F -14 F C F A+ +18 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 214 Howard L 69 - 73 35% -8  0% 3 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -3 F A+ D D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 81% -2  33% 4 - 4 D- -13 C +1 D+ A- D- F -14 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 300 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 42% +6  90% 5 - 4 C +1 D -5 F C- D B+ +7 A- C F
 Mon, Dec 29 111 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 24% +1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -8 D+ -3 C- D- A- D+ -5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 283 Northeastern L 74 - 85 62% -4  1% 5 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 D+ -4 F B- C+ F -18 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 218 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 26% -4  13% 5 - 7 0 - 3 C -1 A- +11 D+ A+ D+ F -12 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 204 Elon L 64 - 69 45% -6  0% 5 - 8 0 - 4 D -11 F -15 F B+ F+ B +4 A- B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 134 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 14% -7  5% 5 - 9 0 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ C+ F F -10 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 19 248 @Hampton L 61 - 82 31% -5  35% 5 - 10 0 - 6 F -23 D- -8 D- F B- F -17 D F F
 Thu, Jan 22 114 Hofstra W 79 - 78 25% -5  25% 6 - 10 1 - 6 C +1 B+ +8 C- A+ C+ D- -7 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 168 Towson W 80 - 73 36% +4  60% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +4 B- +4 A+ D+ F C -0 D A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 190 @Monmouth L 81 - 83 OT 22% +2  60% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -1 C+ +3 F+ A+ D D+ -4 B- B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 226 @Drexel L 60 - 61 27% -6  10% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C- -2 D- -8 F+ F C B+ +6 B- D- D
 Thu, Feb 5 159 @College of Charleston L 62 - 78 18% -5  23% 7 - 13 2 - 9 D- -13 F -11 D D+ F C- -1 F A- B
 Sat, Feb 7 197 Campbell L 71 - 79 43% -6  3% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D- -13 F+ -9 D F A D+ -4 C F C-
 Fri, Feb 13 248 Hampton W 71 - 70 41% -4  6% 8 - 14 3 - 10 C- -4 C- -1 D- C+ A+ D+ -3 D F+ B
 Thu, Feb 19 159 College of Charleston L 73 - 77 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 204 @Elon L 75 - 82 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 111 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 80 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 William & Mary L 80 - 86 30%
 Tue, Mar 3 197 @Campbell L 76 - 84 24%
Totals 9 - 18 4 - 14 -7 D+ -4 F D+ D D+ -3 D B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C D D+ 36% 58% 35% D D C C+ C D B+ B- A- D+ C D D D+ 42% 20% 38% C- D+ B C- B- D- C- B+ C
1.04 55% 38% 31% -3 -1 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 19% .36 75% .27 1.14 58% 42% 37% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.0 .28 14% .32 69% .25
Nov
4		 South Carolina D+ A F B B- 35% 45% 20% F C F F F C A- B- A- D C C- F F 38% 13% 49% D F+ C F D- B C- A B-
0.95 68% 28% 36% 0 -3 0.95 19% 0.7 .14 16% .35 73% .25 1.20 60% 43% 42% +8 +1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 17% .33 71% .24
Nov
10		 South Carolina St. F+ C F F F 60% 10% 29% B+ F+ C- F D- F A+ C+ A+ A A B+ F C 29% 42% 29% B+ C+ C A+ A A+ F A+ D-
1.05 62% 20% 21% -5 +3 0.98 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 73% .39 0.77 43% 30% 43% -4 -3 0.88 29% 0.6 .17 30% .49 50% .25
Nov
18		 Morgan St. C- B+ A+ D+ B- 29% 29% 42% F C D- A+ B+ F B A- A- C- D F A+ D- 41% 25% 34% D- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A B A
1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38 1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19
Nov
28		 Davidson B D- B+ A+ A 32% 30% 39% D+ A- F+ C D B- A+ D- A+ F D- F+ F F 51% 13% 36% F F D+ F F+ F F A+ F
1.12 50% 46% 47% +7 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33 1.36 65% 50% 44% +10 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33
Dec
2		 Charlotte F F+ C+ F F 34% 24% 41% D+ F D- C D F A+ D- A+ C F A+ F F 41% 11% 48% D+ F+ B- F D+ C+ D+ B- C-
0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36 1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25
Dec
6		 NC Central F F+ B F F 38% 23% 40% D+ F C- C+ C F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% D A+ A A+ A+ D- F C+ F
0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49 0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36
Dec
9		 Howard D+ C- D+ F F 40% 32% 28% F F A+ B+ A+ D D- B- D D+ B- F F F 64% 9% 27% F F C A+ A+ C F A- F
1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21 1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35
Dec
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore C A F C- C- 31% 22% 47% D D+ C+ A A- D- A+ A A+ F B F A+ D+ 35% 32% 33% B+ C- D F F F D- D D-
1.18 71% 20% 33% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.4 .47 19% .67 82% .55 1.14 50% 61% 21% -2 -2 0.95 33% 1.2 .40 10% .27 76% .21
Dec
16		 UNC Greensboro D B- F D F 28% 28% 44% D- F A F C- D B+ A+ A B+ A+ B- B- B+ 26% 28% 46% B+ A- D B+ C F B+ A+ A+
1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27 1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17
Dec
29		 UNC Wilmington D+ F+ A- D+ C 32% 33% 35% D C- F A+ D- A- A+ D+ A D+ A- D+ F D 41% 20% 39% D- D- B+ A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25 1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43
Dec
31		 Northeastern D+ B- A- F F+ 33% 28% 40% F F B- C B- C+ A+ C- A+ F C F F F 48% 24% 28% B- F C- D+ D+ F F B+ F
1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42 1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29
Jan
3		 Stony Brook A- F C A+ C- 40% 33% 27% D- D+ A+ D+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ F C- B+ F F 40% 17% 42% C- F A- F C F C+ F C-
1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31 1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
8		 Elon F F B- F F 22% 24% 55% D- F C+ A B+ F+ F A- F B A A+ D- A 56% 8% 36% D- A- A- D B- D- F+ A+ C
0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13 1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22
Jan
15		 William & Mary B+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 24% 35% D+ A+ D- A+ C+ F A+ B A+ F C- D+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F A- F+ B- F+ F B F
1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29 1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33
Jan
19		 Hampton D- F F+ A+ D 41% 33% 25% F+ D- D F F B- F C+ F F F C B+ F+ 19% 42% 40% A+ D C F F F A F B-
0.95 48% 29% 46% -3 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .13 16% .24 69% .17 1.27 90% 36% 29% +2 -4 0.98 34% 1.2 .42 6% .26 88% .23
Jan
22		 Hofstra B+ D A+ F C+ 13% 39% 48% F C- A+ A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D- C+ B D- C- 17% 30% 53% A C A B- A F D+ C+ D+
1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46 1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25
Jan
24		 Towson B- A+ A+ B- A+ 40% 16% 44% B A+ D C+ D+ F A+ C A+ C D F A D 35% 29% 37% C- D A+ A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41 1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33
Jan
29		 Monmouth C+ C- C+ F F 51% 27% 22% C- F+ A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F A+ B- 44% 26% 30% C- B- B- C B- F F F F
1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34 1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32
Jan
31		 Drexel D- D+ C- F F+ 35% 22% 43% C F+ F B+ F C D+ A+ C B+ B+ B D- B 41% 24% 35% C+ B- B- F D- D A+ A+ A+
0.94 53% 36% 24% -9 0 0.84 16% 1.2 .19 16% .28 87% .24 0.95 48% 33% 39% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 17% .04 0% .00
Feb
5		 College of Charleston F B- F C- D 23% 30% 47% D- D C D D+ F A+ A+ A+ C- F D B+ F 35% 31% 33% A- F A- B A- B A+ B A+
0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28 1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Campbell F+ D+ C+ C- D 51% 33% 16% D+ D D- F F A B F D+ D+ A D D- C+ 55% 11% 34% D- C A F F C- F+ C- F+
1.01 57% 39% 33% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.8 .20 13% .34 57% .20 1.13 46% 40% 38% -5 +3 0.98 27% 1.9 .52 17% .45 73% .33
Feb
13		 Hampton C- D+ F A+ D 48% 39% 14% F+ D- D+ A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ C- C- B- D+ 44% 19% 37% F D B- F F+ B F B+ F
1.07 57% 24% 50% -3 -2 0.93 26% 1.3 .32 11% .51 70% .35 1.06 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.3 .41 21% .54 68% .36



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 3.1 0.5 3.6 11th
12th 12.2 30.8 24.3 5.9 0.1 73.3 12th
13th 13.1 7.4 1.1 0.0 21.6 13th
Total 25.3 38.1 25.4 9.4 1.7 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 9.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-13 25.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.3
4-14 38.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 38.1
3-15 25.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.8%