N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -6.3 274
Results Rating -6.6 271
Consistency 0.13 94
Pace 70.5 124
Improvement +2.6 84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 223 C- C D B+ D-
Defense D 302 D+ C+ F+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 256 C 58% 187 -1.7 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 22 C+ 40% 95 +3.9 33
Three Pointers 35% 300 D+ 31% 291 -4.4 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 327 C- -0.9 210
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 238
Second Chance C 29.9% 192 C+ 1.08 110 C 0.32 150
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 255
Other Turnovers D- 8.8% 333
Turnovers D 18.9% 308
Freethrows B+ 0.36 30 B- 75% 102 B+ 0.27 29
Total Offense C- -1.9 223

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 C- 11.7% 228
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 218 C 5.3% 208
Three Pointers D- 76% 336 C+ 0.8% 159
Total D 49% 311 C- 6.0% 233


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 C 59% 202 +1.3 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 144 D+ 41% 289 +0.9 265
Three Pointers 38% 259 D 37% 310 +0.5 206
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 167 D+ +2.6 286
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 271
Second Chance B- 27.7% 82 C 1.04 199 C+ 0.29 113
Turnovers from Steals D- 6.9% 340
Other Turnovers D 6.1% 322
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 351
Freethrows C 0.31 199 B+ 69% 35 C+ 0.21 155
Total Defense D -4.4 302

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 328 C+ 12.0% 133
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 307 C 5.3% 137
Three Pointers C- 86% 243 D 0.3% 306
Total D+ 61% 299 C+ 6.1% 140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 197 16.5 45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 127 0.24 356
Consistency 0.13 257 0.13 210
Improvement +3.9 27 -1.3 255

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 290 276 256
Results Rating Rank 294 270 248
Conference Record 4 - 14 4 - 14 5 - 13
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 32 - 102 - 14
Quad 48 - 510 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 95 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 9% -14  0% 0 - 1 D -10 D+ -4 C F C D+ -5 F+ D- B+
 Mon, Nov 10 359 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 89% +14  87% 1 - 1 C+ +4 F -10 F D- F A +11 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 352 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 67% +4  84% 2 - 1 C- -5 C- -2 C B+ F C- -3 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 107 @Davidson L 74 - 90 12% -9  6% 2 - 2 D -9 B+ +8 A- D C+ F -18 F F+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 166 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 20% -17  0% 2 - 3 D- -15 F -16 F D F C +0 F+ D+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 349 @NC Central W 69 - 54 66% -1  30% 3 - 3 C+ +5 F -14 F C F A+ +18 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 182 Howard L 69 - 73 33% -8  0% 3 - 4 D+ -6 C- -2 F A+ D- D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 82% -2  33% 4 - 4 D- -13 C+ +2 C- B+ D- F -15 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 299 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 46% +6  90% 5 - 4 C +1 D -5 F D+ D+ B+ +6 A- C F
 Mon, Dec 29 108 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 25% +1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -8 D+ -3 C- D- A- D+ -4 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 294 Northeastern L 74 - 85 67% -4  1% 5 - 6 0 - 2 F -22 D+ -4 F B C F -19 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 218 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 28% -4  13% 5 - 7 0 - 3 C -1 A- +11 D+ A+ C- F -12 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 235 Elon L 64 - 69 53% -6  0% 5 - 8 0 - 4 D- -12 F -16 F B+ F+ B +4 B+ B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 138 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 16% -7  5% 5 - 9 0 - 5 C- -4 B+ +8 A+ C F F -11 F C+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 263 @Hampton L 61 - 82 37% -5  35% 5 - 10 0 - 6 F -24 F+ -8 D- F C+ F -17 D F F
 Thu, Jan 22 103 Hofstra W 79 - 78 24% -5  25% 6 - 10 1 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +9 C A+ C+ D- -7 C+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 175 Towson W 80 - 73 41% +4  60% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +3 B- +4 A+ D+ F C -1 D A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 180 @Monmouth L 81 - 83 OT 22% +2  60% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C -0 C+ +4 F+ A+ D D+ -4 B C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 211 @Drexel L 60 - 61 27% -6  10% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C -1 D- -7 D- F C B+ +6 B- D- D
 Thu, Feb 5 143 @College of Charleston L 62 - 78 17% -5  23% 7 - 13 2 - 9 D- -12 F -11 D- D+ F C -0 F A- B+
 Sat, Feb 7 193 Campbell L 71 - 79 45% -6  3% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D- -13 F+ -8 D F A D+ -5 C F C
 Fri, Feb 13 263 Hampton W 71 - 70 48% -4  6% 8 - 14 3 - 10 C- -5 C- -1 F+ C+ A+ D+ -3 D F B+
 Thu, Feb 19 143 College of Charleston L 61 - 74 34% -11  0% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -15 D- -8 D- B F F+ -8 F A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 235 @Elon W 102 - 82 31% +10  96% 9 - 15 4 - 11 A +19 A+ +27 A+ A+ C- D- -7 C+ F F
 Thu, Feb 26 108 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 88 12% -13  8% 9 - 16 4 - 12 F+ -16 C- -2 C+ D- C F -16 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 138 William & Mary L 88 - 91 33% -4  8% 9 - 17 4 - 13 C- -5 B- +5 A+ C- F F+ -9 C- A- F
 Tue, Mar 3 193 @Campbell L 77 - 84 25%
Totals 9 - 18 4 - 14 -6 C- -2 A+ C- D- D -4 D+ B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C+ D+ C- 36% 58% 35% D- C- C C+ C D B+ B- B+ D C D+ D D+ 40% 21% 38% C D+ B- C C+ F+ C B+ C+
1.06 58% 40% 31% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.1 .32 19% .36 75% .27 1.15 59% 41% 37% +3 0 1.08 28% 1.0 .29 13% .31 69% .25
Nov
4		 South Carolina D+ A F+ B B- 35% 45% 20% F C F F F C A B- A D+ C C- F F+ 38% 13% 49% D F+ C- F D- B+ C A B-
0.95 68% 28% 36% 0 -3 0.95 19% 0.7 .14 16% .35 73% .25 1.20 60% 43% 42% +7 +1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 17% .33 71% .24
Nov
10		 South Carolina St. F C F F F 60% 10% 29% B F C- F D- F A+ C A+ A A B+ F C 29% 42% 29% A- C+ C+ A+ A A+ F A+ D
1.05 62% 20% 21% -5 +3 0.98 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 73% .39 0.77 43% 30% 43% -4 -3 0.88 29% 0.6 .17 30% .49 50% .25
Nov
18		 Morgan St. C- B+ A+ D+ B 29% 29% 42% F C D- A+ B+ F B+ A A C- D F A+ F+ 41% 25% 34% D- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A B A
1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38 1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19
Nov
28		 Davidson B+ D- B+ A+ A 32% 30% 39% D A- D- C D C+ A+ F+ A+ F D- F F F 51% 13% 36% F F D+ F F+ F F A F
1.12 50% 46% 47% +7 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33 1.36 65% 50% 44% +10 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33
Dec
2		 Charlotte F F+ B- F F 34% 24% 41% D+ F D- C D F A+ D- A+ C F A+ F F 41% 11% 48% D+ F+ B- F D+ B- D+ B C-
0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36 1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25
Dec
6		 NC Central F F+ B F F 38% 23% 40% D+ F C- C+ C F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% D A+ A A+ A+ D F C+ F
0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49 0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 0 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36
Dec
9		 Howard C- C- D+ F F 40% 32% 28% F F A+ B A+ D- D- B- D D+ B- F F F 64% 9% 27% F F C A+ A+ C F A- F
1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21 1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35
Dec
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ A F C C 31% 22% 47% D- C- C+ A+ B+ D- A+ A A+ F B F A+ D+ 35% 32% 33% B+ C- D F F F D D- D-
1.18 71% 20% 33% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.4 .47 19% .67 82% .55 1.14 50% 61% 21% -2 -2 0.95 33% 1.2 .40 10% .27 76% .21
Dec
16		 UNC Greensboro D B- F D- F 28% 28% 44% D- F A F D+ D+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ B- B- B+ 26% 28% 46% B+ A- D A- C F B A+ A+
1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27 1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17
Dec
29		 UNC Wilmington D+ F+ A D C 32% 33% 35% D C- F A+ D- A- A+ D A- D+ A- D F D- 41% 20% 39% F+ D- A- A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25 1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43
Dec
31		 Northeastern D+ B- A- F F+ 33% 28% 40% F F B+ C B C A+ C- A+ F C F F F 48% 24% 28% C+ F C- C- D+ F F A- F
1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42 1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29
Jan
3		 Stony Brook A- F C- A+ D+ 40% 33% 27% D- D+ A+ D+ A+ C- B+ A+ A+ F C- B+ F F 40% 17% 42% C- F A- F C F C+ F+ C-
1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31 1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
8		 Elon F F B- F F 22% 24% 55% F+ F C+ A B+ F+ F B+ F B A A+ D- A 56% 8% 36% F+ B+ A- D B- D- F+ A+ C
0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13 1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22
Jan
15		 William & Mary B+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 24% 35% D+ A+ D- A+ C F A+ B A+ F C- C- F F 62% 10% 29% F F A- F C+ F+ F B F
1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29 1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33
Jan
19		 Hampton F+ F F+ A+ D 41% 33% 25% F+ D- D F F C+ F C+ F F F C B+ F 19% 42% 40% A+ D D+ F F F A F C+
0.95 48% 29% 46% -3 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .13 16% .24 69% .17 1.27 90% 36% 29% +2 -4 0.98 34% 1.2 .42 6% .26 88% .23
Jan
22		 Hofstra B+ D A+ F B- 13% 39% 48% F C A+ A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D- C+ B D- C- 17% 30% 53% A C+ A B- A- F D C+ D+
1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46 1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25
Jan
24		 Towson B- A+ A+ B- A+ 40% 16% 44% B- A+ D C+ D+ F A+ C A+ C D F A D- 35% 29% 37% C- D A+ A+ A+ C- F C F
1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41 1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33
Jan
29		 Monmouth C+ C- C+ F F+ 51% 27% 22% C- F+ A A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F A+ B 44% 26% 30% D+ B B- C C+ F F F F
1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34 1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32
Jan
31		 Drexel D- D+ C- F F+ 35% 22% 43% C D- F B+ F C D+ A+ C+ B+ A- B- D- B 41% 24% 35% C+ B- C+ F D- D A+ A+ A+
0.94 53% 36% 24% -9 -1 0.84 16% 1.2 .19 16% .28 87% .24 0.95 48% 33% 39% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 17% .04 0% .00
Feb
5		 College of Charleston F B- F C- D 23% 30% 47% D- D- C D- D+ F A+ A+ A+ C F D- B+ F 35% 31% 33% A- F A B A- B+ A+ B- A+
0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28 1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Campbell F+ D+ C+ C- D 51% 33% 16% D+ D D- F F A B F D D+ A- D- D- C+ 55% 11% 34% D- C A F F C F C- F+
1.01 57% 39% 33% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.8 .20 13% .34 57% .20 1.13 46% 40% 38% -5 +2 0.98 27% 1.9 .52 17% .45 73% .33
Feb
13		 Hampton C- D F A+ D- 48% 39% 14% F F+ D+ A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ C- C- C+ D+ 44% 19% 37% F D C+ F F B+ F B+ F
1.07 57% 24% 50% -3 -2 0.93 26% 1.3 .32 11% .51 70% .35 1.06 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.3 .41 21% .54 68% .36
Feb
19		 College of Charleston D- F C+ D- F+ 37% 17% 46% B D- D+ A+ B F A- D B F+ F A+ F F 31% 29% 40% A- F D+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B- A+
0.96 47% 38% 29% -8 0 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 19% .29 67% .19 1.17 81% 20% 43% +7 -2 1.13 32% 0.6 .19 13% .25 71% .18
Feb
21		 Elon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 31% 27% D A+ A+ C- A+ C- A A+ A+ D- A- A+ F C+ 40% 11% 49% C+ C+ F+ D- F F D+ D D
1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32 1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25
Feb
26		 UNC Wilmington C- A+ B+ F+ B- 21% 33% 46% F+ C+ F+ D+ D- C B- D- C+ F F+ B F D- 27% 36% 36% A+ D+ D- F F F A+ C- A+
1.01 80% 44% 27% +2 -3 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 14% .29 69% .20 1.36 67% 30% 40% +3 -3 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 6% .23 71% .16
Feb
28		 William & Mary B- A+ A+ B- A+ 29% 37% 33% F A+ C- C- C- F C+ C C+ F+ F+ F A+ D+ 38% 15% 48% B C- A- B+ A- F D- B D
1.17 93% 63% 35% +20 -3 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 24% .30 71% .21 1.21 70% 78% 24% +3 +1 1.10 19% 1.0 .19 7% .40 71% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 75.0 25.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 75.0 25.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 25.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.9
4-14 75.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.2 74.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 32.3%