N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.7#301
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#229
Pace72.4#100
Improvement-0.1#185

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#305
First Shot-3.8#291
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#261
Layup/Dunks-4.0#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#325
Freethrows+3.7#16
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#265
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks-3.7#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#202
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-0.4#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 9.3% 20.0% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.7% 19.2% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 42.9% 25.4% 48.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 90 @South Carolina L 72-91 7%     0 - 1 -9.8 -1.2 -7.2
  Mon, Nov 10 358 South Carolina St. W 85-62 83%     1 - 1 +5.1 -7.6 +9.6
  Tue, Nov 18 360 @Morgan St. W 79-73 68%     2 - 1 -6.5 -0.4 -6.0
  Fri, Nov 28 140 @Davidson L 74-90 13%     2 - 2 -11.6 +8.1 -20.7
  Tue, Dec 2 183 @Charlotte L 57-74 20%     2 - 3 -15.7 -12.7 -4.1
  Sat, Dec 6 348 @NC Central W 69-54 56%     3 - 3 +5.7 -8.0 +13.3
  Tue, Dec 9 265 Howard L 69-73 42%     3 - 4 -9.7 -2.5 -7.3
  Fri, Dec 12 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-79 76%     4 - 4 -12.0 +3.6 -15.6
  Tue, Dec 16 294 @UNC Greensboro W 71-65 36%     5 - 4 +1.9 +0.3 +2.0
  Mon, Dec 29 120 UNC Wilmington L 68-76 24%    
  Wed, Dec 31 205 Northeastern L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Jan 3 246 @Stony Brook L 67-73 29%    
  Thu, Jan 8 166 Elon L 75-79 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 118 @William & Mary L 74-88 10%    
  Mon, Jan 19 238 @Hampton L 69-75 28%    
  Thu, Jan 22 110 Hofstra L 67-75 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 128 Towson L 65-72 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 224 @Monmouth L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 274 @Drexel L 68-73 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 169 @College of Charleston L 70-80 18%    
  Sat, Feb 7 225 Campbell L 77-78 47%    
  Fri, Feb 13 238 Hampton L 70-73 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 169 College of Charleston L 73-77 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 166 @Elon L 72-82 18%    
  Thu, Feb 26 120 @UNC Wilmington L 65-79 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 118 William & Mary L 77-85 24%    
  Tue, Mar 3 225 @Campbell L 74-81 27%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.8 0.8 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.2 2.2 0.1 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 13.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.3 8.0 5.3 0.8 0.0 19.5 12th
13th 1.4 5.0 8.7 9.0 4.9 1.1 0.0 30.1 13th
Total 1.4 5.1 9.8 13.6 16.1 15.6 12.9 10.2 6.6 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 0.0%
14-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 32.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 6.9% 6.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.2% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.4
9-9 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
8-10 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.6
7-11 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.1
6-12 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-13 15.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.5
4-14 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
3-15 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
2-16 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
1-17 5.1% 5.1
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%