Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#204
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#220
Pace67.4#239
Improvement-2.8#335

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#249
First Shot-2.2#233
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#233
Layup/Dunks-0.9#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#340
Freethrows+3.5#24
Improvement-2.0#322

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#159
First Shot-0.6#197
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#127
Layups/Dunks+4.8#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#262
Freethrows+1.4#96
Improvement-0.7#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 23.7% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 90.2% 90.9% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 89.4% 81.3%
Conference Champion 31.3% 31.8% 20.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 3.1%
First Four6.2% 6.1% 8.3%
First Round20.5% 20.8% 12.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 418 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 258 @Presbyterian W 76-55 48%     1 - 0 +18.6 +10.3 +10.2
  Fri, Nov 7 79 Yale L 68-97 24%     1 - 1 -24.6 -12.7 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 11 104 @Penn St. L 71-80 17%     1 - 2 -1.8 +0.4 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 18 23 @North Carolina L 61-73 3%     1 - 3 +6.4 -2.8 +9.3
  Sat, Nov 22 353 NJIT W 86-70 89%     2 - 3 -0.1 +10.2 -10.0
  Wed, Nov 26 362 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 88%     3 - 3 +17.5 +8.1 +11.1
  Fri, Nov 28 108 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 18%     3 - 4 -23.3 -9.9 -15.6
  Sat, Nov 29 273 SE Louisiana L 65-69 61%     3 - 5 -9.9 -2.9 -7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 349 @Delaware St. W 66-59 72%     4 - 5 -2.0 -9.2 +7.1
  Sun, Dec 7 322 Air Force W 61-56 82%     5 - 5 -7.6 -9.5 +2.4
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 80-61 96%    
  Wed, Dec 31 287 Boston University W 73-66 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 310 @Holy Cross W 71-68 60%    
  Wed, Jan 7 304 Bucknell W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 319 Lafayette W 74-65 81%    
  Mon, Jan 12 249 @American L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 307 @Lehigh W 71-69 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 310 Holy Cross W 74-65 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 332 Army W 75-65 83%    
  Wed, Jan 28 287 @Boston University W 70-69 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 338 Loyola Maryland W 78-67 84%    
  Wed, Feb 4 319 @Lafayette W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 249 American W 74-69 67%    
  Mon, Feb 9 304 @Bucknell W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 182 @Colgate L 68-73 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 307 Lehigh W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 332 @Army W 72-68 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 338 @Loyola Maryland W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 182 Colgate W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.9 8.4 7.7 4.6 1.8 0.4 31.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.9 7.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.6 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.4 7.6 11.3 13.4 14.7 14.5 12.0 8.7 4.7 1.8 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 98.3% 4.6    4.3 0.3
15-3 88.4% 7.7    6.2 1.4 0.0
14-4 69.8% 8.4    5.6 2.6 0.2
13-5 40.5% 5.9    2.5 2.7 0.7 0.1
12-6 15.5% 2.3    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.3% 31.3 21.1 8.1 1.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 56.1% 56.1% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 51.8% 51.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9
16-2 4.7% 43.1% 43.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.7
15-3 8.7% 39.1% 39.1% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.5 5.3
14-4 12.0% 31.7% 31.7% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.6 8.2
13-5 14.5% 27.9% 27.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.5 10.5
12-6 14.7% 22.7% 22.7% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.6 11.4
11-7 13.4% 18.6% 18.6% 15.9 0.2 2.3 11.0
10-8 11.3% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7 9.6
9-9 7.6% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 6.7
8-10 5.4% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.0
7-11 2.9% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8
6-12 1.6% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 1.6
5-13 0.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.4 12.7 76.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 7.9 50.8 38.1 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%