Navy
Patriot League
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#212
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#239
Pace63.3#310
Improvement-0.3#226

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#206
First Shot-0.6#203
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#213
Layup/Dunks-0.5#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#40
Freethrows-2.7#348
Improvement-1.9#357

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#213
First Shot-1.4#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#153
Layups/Dunks+1.8#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement+1.6#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 13.2% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 74.6% 85.4% 54.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.6% 85.4% 54.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four3.4% 2.8% 4.6%
First Round10.7% 12.1% 8.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 25 - 5
Quad 410 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 305   @ William & Mary W 74-59 61%     1 - 0 +9.9 +7.0 +4.9
  Nov 11, 2022 115   Princeton W 74-73 41%     2 - 0 +1.2 +2.9 -1.6
  Nov 14, 2022 345   @ Coppin St. L 68-75 75%     2 - 1 -16.3 -11.4 -4.9
  Nov 18, 2022 262   UC San Diego W 78-69 OT 72%     3 - 1 +0.9 -3.7 +4.0
  Nov 20, 2022 131   Youngstown St. W 80-67 44%     4 - 1 +12.4 +8.3 +5.1
  Nov 26, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's W 75-59 76%     5 - 1 +6.4 +7.7 +0.4
  Nov 30, 2022 194   @ Lipscomb L 77-82 36%     5 - 2 -3.5 +7.2 -10.9
  Dec 03, 2022 335   @ VMI L 72-80 71%     5 - 3 -15.7 -0.5 -15.9
  Dec 07, 2022 23   @ West Virginia L 64-85 5%     5 - 4 -4.7 +4.5 -11.3
  Dec 11, 2022 141   @ Towson W 71-69 OT 27%     6 - 4 +6.4 -0.8 +7.2
  Dec 21, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 52-74 13%     6 - 5 -12.2 -6.4 -8.3
  Dec 30, 2022 276   @ Boston University W 75-58 54%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +13.8 +10.7 +5.2
  Jan 02, 2023 326   Holy Cross L 63-74 83%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -23.1 -9.4 -14.5
  Jan 05, 2023 118   @ Colgate L 73-87 23%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -8.6 +0.5 -9.3
  Jan 08, 2023 258   Lehigh L 73-78 71%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -12.8 -0.9 -12.0
  Jan 11, 2023 261   Lafayette L 50-59 72%     7 - 9 1 - 4 -17.1 -14.6 -4.0
  Jan 14, 2023 333   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-69 70%     7 - 10 1 - 5 -9.5 +5.5 -15.4
  Jan 18, 2023 276   Boston University W 63-45 73%     8 - 10 2 - 5 +9.4 -7.9 +18.8
  Jan 21, 2023 237   @ Army W 77-71 46%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +4.9 -0.7 +5.3
  Jan 25, 2023 295   @ Bucknell W 63-46 59%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +12.5 -8.3 +21.8
  Jan 28, 2023 236   American L 69-73 67%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -10.5 -2.4 -8.4
  Feb 01, 2023 261   @ Lafayette W 53-34 52%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +16.4 -9.4 +28.8
  Feb 04, 2023 326   @ Holy Cross W 68-63 65%    
  Feb 08, 2023 295   Bucknell W 72-64 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 237   Army W 72-68 68%    
  Feb 15, 2023 258   @ Lehigh W 69-68 49%    
  Feb 18, 2023 333   Loyola Maryland W 70-59 85%    
  Feb 22, 2023 236   @ American L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 25, 2023 118   Colgate L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 7.0 3.4 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 9.7 6.6 0.3 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 8.8 12.1 1.5 0.0 23.0 4th
5th 0.3 6.3 14.2 3.7 0.0 24.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 8.7 3.7 0.1 14.9 6th
7th 0.4 3.3 1.8 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.3 6.6 17.4 28.1 27.6 15.2 3.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.8% 22.4% 22.4% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.9
11-7 15.2% 18.3% 18.3% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.7 12.4
10-8 27.6% 13.6% 13.6% 15.5 0.1 1.8 1.8 23.8
9-9 28.1% 10.2% 10.2% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.4 25.2
8-10 17.4% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4 16.0
7-11 6.6% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.2
6-12 1.3% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.7 4.5 6.9 87.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 22.4% 14.6 0.5 9.8 11.3 0.8
Lose Out 0.1%