Navy
Patriot League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#108
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#52
Pace65.8#262
Improvement+0.5#142

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#190
First Shot+0.2#179
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#203
Layup/Dunks+2.0#113
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#284
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement-0.7#246

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#61
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#91
Layups/Dunks-1.7#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#50
Freethrows-0.7#236
Improvement+1.2#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 41.3% 35.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.6% 98.8%
Conference Champion 50.1% 54.9% 45.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round38.0% 41.1% 35.2%
Second Round6.3% 7.5% 5.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 34 - 26 - 5
Quad 417 - 223 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 44   @ Virginia W 66-58 21%     1 - 0 +20.8 +6.8 +14.7
  Nov 12, 2021 36   Virginia Tech L 57-77 34%     1 - 1 -11.6 -5.6 -8.1
  Nov 15, 2021 37   @ Louisville L 60-77 17%     1 - 2 -2.6 -3.0 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2021 253   Radford W 47-33 80%     2 - 2 +9.3 -22.3 +32.5
  Nov 21, 2021 110   @ Furman W 77-66 40%     3 - 2 +17.9 +6.7 +11.3
  Nov 27, 2021 293   @ Mount St. Mary's W 67-40 79%     4 - 2 +22.5 -1.2 +25.5
  Dec 01, 2021 331   William & Mary W 75-56 95%     5 - 2 +4.5 +3.1 +3.1
  Dec 07, 2021 139   @ George Mason L 65-66 48%    
  Dec 12, 2021 241   @ Marist W 67-62 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 144   Towson W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 01, 2022 346   @ Holy Cross W 76-61 92%    
  Jan 04, 2022 156   Boston University W 67-61 72%    
  Jan 07, 2022 309   Bucknell W 79-63 93%    
  Jan 10, 2022 294   @ Lafayette W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 13, 2022 116   Colgate W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 16, 2022 156   @ Boston University W 64-63 52%    
  Jan 19, 2022 316   Lehigh W 75-59 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 265   Army W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 26, 2022 309   @ Bucknell W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 329   American W 76-58 95%    
  Feb 02, 2022 316   @ Lehigh W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 05, 2022 277   @ Loyola Maryland W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 07, 2022 294   Lafayette W 75-60 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 265   @ Army W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 16, 2022 329   @ American W 73-61 87%    
  Feb 19, 2022 346   Holy Cross W 79-58 97%    
  Feb 23, 2022 277   Loyola Maryland W 71-58 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 116   @ Colgate L 70-72 42%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.5 12.3 15.7 11.2 3.9 50.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.9 10.1 6.6 1.7 28.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.9 4.6 1.9 0.2 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.9 8.5 12.9 17.5 19.1 17.4 11.2 3.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.9    3.9
17-1 100.0% 11.2    10.7 0.5
16-2 90.3% 15.7    12.5 3.2 0.0
15-3 64.4% 12.3    7.1 4.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 31.5% 5.5    2.1 2.6 0.8 0.0
13-5 10.0% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 50.1% 50.1 36.6 11.7 1.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.9% 68.8% 63.5% 5.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 14.5%
17-1 11.2% 58.1% 57.1% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.7 2.3%
16-2 17.4% 48.9% 48.8% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 2.7 4.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.2%
15-3 19.1% 41.6% 41.6% 13.3 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.1
14-4 17.5% 33.3% 33.3% 13.8 0.3 1.9 2.7 0.9 0.0 11.7
13-5 12.9% 27.9% 27.9% 14.1 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 9.3
12-6 8.5% 20.6% 20.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 6.8
11-7 4.9% 16.2% 16.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 4.1
10-8 2.6% 14.1% 14.1% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.2
9-9 1.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-10 0.5% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.2% 37.8% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 7.9 13.1 9.8 4.1 0.6 61.8 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 8.1 0.4 3.5 10.2 19.2 10.6 11.3 14.6 7.7 13.2 7.7 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 43.9% 11.4 0.7 2.0 2.0 17.6 18.2 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 24.7% 11.1 2.7 16.4 5.5