Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 155
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 140
Pace 64.8 280
Improvement +5.1 24

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 239 C- C D+ B- C-
Defense B- 106 B- C+ C+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 D+ 55% 254 -0.3 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 110 C+ 40% 112 +1.9 78
Three Pointers 35% 294 C- 33% 226 -3.3 296
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 240 C- -1.3 221
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 226
Second Chance C 29.9% 194 C 1.04 155 C 0.31 176
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 286
Freethrows C+ 0.33 120 C+ 74% 146 B- 0.24 109
Total Offense C- -2.5 239

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 59% 35 C- 11.9% 238
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 59% 1 C- 6.1% 256
Three Pointers B- 88% 110 F+ 1.9% 346
Total A- 67% 18 D 6.9% 311

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 D+ 62% 280 -3.2 77
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 64 C 39% 206 +1.6 308
Three Pointers 45% 76 B+ 30% 37 -0.7 151
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 37 C+ -1.3 121
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 107
Second Chance C 30.5% 186 B- 0.97 90 C+ 0.30 132
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 145
Freethrows B+ 0.25 35 D 75% 315 B 0.19 54
Total Defense B- +2.5 106

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 272 C- 10.1% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 172 C 5.4% 137
Three Pointers C- 85% 214 C 1.0% 132
Total C 57% 207 C- 4.9% 233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 273 17.5 222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 235 0.15 90
Improvement +2.5 #73 +2.6 #61

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 185 160 136
Conference Record 15 - 3 16 - 2 17 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45% 46% 42%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round45% 46% 42%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 11 - 4
Quad 423 - 324 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 272 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 63% +16  88% 1 - 0 A- +18 B +6 C+ C B+ A+ +13 A- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 81 Yale L 68 - 97 35% -14  17% 1 - 1 F -25 F -15 D+ D- F D- -8 C- F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 115 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 28% -6  6% 1 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 D C+ F C -1 A- F D+
 Tue, Nov 18 30 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 6% -10  0% 1 - 3 B- +6 D- -7 F D A+ A+ +13 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 315 NJIT W 86 - 70 88% +10  92% 2 - 3 C+ +4 B+ +8 B+ D+ B- D+ -4 A- F+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 95% +16  96% 3 - 3 A- +15 B- +4 D+ A+ F A+ +12 A- B- A-
 Fri, Nov 28 111 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 26% -21  0% 3 - 4 F -23 F -11 F F+ C- F -15 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 281 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 75% -7  21% 3 - 5 D -11 D -5 F+ D+ C+ D- -7 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 361 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 90% +9  98% 4 - 5 D+ -7 F -13 F B+ F B+ +6 B+ D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 347 Air Force W 61 - 56 92% -0  39% 5 - 5 D -11 F -14 F F B B- +3 A- C+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 97% +12  94% 6 - 5 B+ +11 B+ +8 C- A+ D+ B +4 C+ A D+
 Wed, Dec 31 256 Boston University W 82 - 77 79% +5  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C- -3 C +1 B+ D- D+ D+ -4 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 326 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 77% +6  92% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C -1 D -5 D F D- B+ +6 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 330 Bucknell W 76 - 55 90% +7  59% 9 - 5 3 - 0 B- +7 C +0 C A- F A- +8 B A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 322 Lafayette W 76 - 50 89% +20  97% 10 - 5 4 - 0 B+ +13 C- -1 B C- C- A+ +15 A- A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 12 251 @American L 51 - 65 58% -11  0% 10 - 6 4 - 1 F+ -16 F -18 F F F+ C+ +1 B B F
 Sat, Jan 17 305 @Lehigh W 82 - 79 2OT 70% -0  36% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 D- A- F C -0 B B F
 Wed, Jan 21 326 Holy Cross W 85 - 68 89% +6  85% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 C+ A A D+ -4 D F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 336 Army W 84 - 56 91% +12  92% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ A+ F A- +7 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 256 @Boston University W 58 - 50 59% -2  34% 14 - 6 8 - 1 B- +6 F+ -8 C F F A+ +16 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 317 Loyola Maryland W 87 - 71 88% +8  87% 15 - 6 9 - 1 C+ +3 A- +11 A+ A+ D D -6 D C C+
 Wed, Feb 4 322 @Lafayette W 65 - 50 76% +4  82% 16 - 6 10 - 1 B- +8 D -6 F+ D- C A+ +15 C A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 251 American W 82 - 73 78% +3  73% 17 - 6 11 - 1 C +1 A- +10 A- C+ A F+ -9 D D+ B-
 Mon, Feb 9 330 @Bucknell W 76 - 60 78% +9  87% 18 - 6 12 - 1 B- +8 C- -1 F+ A+ D+ A +9 B+ B F+
 Sat, Feb 14 237 @Colgate W 84 - 80 OT 55% +5  81% 19 - 6 13 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 B+ F+ B- C- -3 D D C+
 Wed, Feb 18 305 Lehigh W 72 - 49 86% +11  96% 20 - 6 14 - 1 B+ +11 C- -2 C+ F C+ A+ +15 A+ A- C
 Sat, Feb 21 336 @Army W 74 - 65 79%
 Wed, Feb 25 317 @Loyola Maryland W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 237 Colgate W 73 - 66 75%
Totals 22 - 7 16 - 2 +0 C- -2 F+ C- C- B- +2 C- C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C+ C- C- 40% 44% 35% C- C- C C C D+ C+ C+ B- B- D+ C B+ C+ 31% 24% 45% B+ B- C B- C+ C+ B+ D B
1.05 55% 40% 33% -1 0 0.99 30% 1.0 .31 18% .33 74% .24 1.05 62% 39% 30% -1 -1 0.97 31% 1.0 .30 17% .25 75% .24
Nov
3		 Presbyterian B B F C+ C+ 54% 15% 30% B C+ C+ C C B+ A+ C- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A 36% 18% 45% D A- B- A+ A+ B+ F B F+
1.18 64% 29% 36% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.0 .32 12% .43 67% .28 0.85 75% 25% 15% -9 0 0.84 29% 0.5 .15 23% .45 64% .28
Nov
7		 Yale F A F+ F D+ 41% 30% 30% D+ D+ F B D- F A+ B A+ D- C- A- F C- 39% 16% 45% C- C- C- F F D+ D+ D- D
0.90 72% 31% 23% -1 -1 0.98 19% 1.2 .23 25% .49 75% .37 1.28 59% 33% 44% +6 +1 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 13% .35 83% .29
Nov
11		 Penn St. D+ C+ C+ D- D 41% 27% 33% D+ D C- A- C+ F B A+ A C C- B A B+ 36% 30% 34% A+ A- D F F D+ B- D+ C+
1.03 60% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.4 .38 23% .27 93% .25 1.17 63% 38% 28% -1 -1 0.96 33% 1.5 .52 13% .30 78% .23
Nov
18		 North Carolina D- F F C F 42% 28% 30% B- F C+ F D A+ B A+ A A+ A+ F F A- 53% 6% 40% F B A A+ A+ A+ D F F+
0.87 40% 18% 33% -14 -1 0.73 27% 0.6 .16 9% .25 81% .20 1.04 44% 67% 42% -1 +3 1.06 26% 0.8 .21 19% .39 77% .30
Nov
22		 NJIT B+ D A+ A+ A- 48% 25% 27% C- B+ C- C- D+ B- A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C- B B+ 21% 34% 45% A+ A- D- F+ F+ D- F C+ F
1.25 52% 50% 46% +5 0 1.13 32% 1.0 .32 13% .55 73% .40 1.02 27% 39% 29% -9 -3 0.77 31% 1.1 .33 15% .43 68% .29
Nov
26		 Gardner-Webb B- B D+ B C- 28% 26% 46% F D+ A- A+ A+ F B+ A+ A A+ D F A+ A- 27% 23% 50% A A- B+ D+ B- A- B- F C
1.26 69% 33% 38% +5 -1 1.09 43% 1.6 .70 21% .34 83% .29 0.77 62% 45% 17% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.0 .18 24% .24 75% .18
Nov
28		 UNC Wilmington F F F+ F F 39% 19% 43% B+ F B F F+ C- D- A+ C- F C- F F F 26% 35% 39% A F F F F A+ B- F+ C
0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18 1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26
Nov
29		 SE Louisiana D C+ F F F 43% 29% 29% C- F+ F+ B+ D+ C+ A+ F+ A D- F D+ F F 26% 42% 33% A+ F B- F D+ A+ C F D
1.00 61% 25% 25% -6 -1 0.88 24% 1.3 .29 19% .53 68% .36 1.07 73% 39% 57% +15 -4 1.26 25% 1.2 .29 26% .31 80% .25
Dec
3		 Delaware St. F F A+ F F 45% 16% 39% C F C- A+ B+ F A+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ B 28% 40% 32% B+ B+ B+ F D+ F C B+ C+
0.93 53% 50% 20% -9 +1 0.87 30% 1.6 .47 25% .60 69% .41 0.83 53% 24% 24% -12 -3 0.72 19% 1.1 .21 11% .30 63% .19
Dec
7		 Air Force F F F C+ F 42% 29% 29% D+ F F D+ F B D A+ B B- B- D- A+ A- 27% 21% 52% A A- A- F C+ F+ B A B+
0.96 50% 29% 36% -5 -1 0.90 18% 1.0 .18 13% .27 93% .25 0.88 54% 40% 24% -9 -1 0.83 17% 1.3 .22 17% .27 57% .15
Dec
19		 Coppin St. B+ C- A B- C 33% 22% 46% D C- A B A+ D+ A+ A A+ B D D+ A+ C- 21% 44% 35% A+ C+ C+ A+ A D+ B- D- C+
1.31 60% 50% 38% +6 -1 1.13 47% 1.2 .57 18% .53 83% .44 0.82 60% 38% 24% -5 -4 0.83 26% 0.6 .16 21% .28 73% .21
Dec
31		 Boston University C B- C+ A+ A- 30% 20% 50% D+ B+ C- F D- D+ A+ C A+ D+ C- F B+ D+ 27% 34% 39% A+ C+ A+ F B+ F A F B
1.22 62% 44% 45% +11 -1 1.23 29% 0.8 .24 13% .51 73% .38 1.14 60% 58% 32% +6 -3 1.09 13% 1.5 .19 12% .20 83% .17
Jan
3		 Holy Cross D C+ F F F+ 64% 16% 20% A D C F F D- A A+ A+ B+ A+ B B A+ 28% 30% 43% B- A+ F F F B+ C- D+ D+
1.06 62% 29% 22% -2 +3 1.02 29% 0.8 .21 16% .35 83% .29 0.95 31% 36% 30% -11 -2 0.77 33% 1.5 .50 20% .29 79% .22
Jan
7		 Bucknell C B F A+ C 37% 24% 39% C- C B- A- A- F B- B B A- D A+ A B 27% 17% 56% B- B A- A+ A+ C C+ D+ C
1.16 65% 18% 44% +4 -1 1.09 38% 1.3 .47 21% .35 78% .27 0.84 62% 13% 26% -10 0 0.81 19% 0.7 .14 20% .27 79% .21
Jan
10		 Lafayette C- B+ A+ B- B+ 33% 26% 41% D+ B F A+ C- C- A+ F B- A+ D A+ B+ B+ 27% 23% 50% A A- A- A+ A+ A- D B C-
1.14 67% 50% 37% +8 -1 1.15 21% 1.6 .32 15% .47 48% .23 0.75 62% 9% 29% -9 -1 0.81 19% 0.3 .05 21% .32 65% .21
Jan
12		 American F F D- F F 38% 23% 40% C- F D- F F F+ A+ C- A C+ F F A+ B+ 35% 6% 59% D- B F A+ B F A+ C- A
0.82 47% 33% 19% -14 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .19 22% .50 71% .35 1.04 68% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 37% 0.5 .17 11% .16 78% .13
Jan
17		 Lehigh D+ F A A+ F+ 49% 19% 32% B D- A C A- F C+ D C C F F A+ B- 22% 35% 43% A+ B A- D+ B F B F C
1.06 31% 50% 47% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.0 .45 21% .33 70% .23 1.03 71% 48% 21% -2 -3 0.92 15% 1.0 .15 10% .23 81% .19
Jan
21		 Holy Cross B+ B+ A D C+ 40% 26% 34% D C+ F A+ A A A+ B+ A+ D+ F D B- F 25% 42% 33% A+ D F F F B+ B F C+
1.30 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 20% 2.4 .48 9% .46 78% .35 1.04 75% 45% 31% +6 -4 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 20% .23 83% .19
Jan
24		 Army A- C- A+ A+ A+ 24% 33% 43% F A+ A+ A A+ F B+ C+ B+ A- D- F B- D- 17% 20% 63% A+ C- A A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ B
1.33 60% 50% 56% +18 -3 1.33 43% 1.4 .61 21% .40 75% .30 0.89 63% 44% 31% -1 -1 0.98 22% 0.5 .11 21% .24 58% .14
Jan
28		 Boston University F+ C- A+ D+ C 44% 22% 33% C C D+ F F F F A+ F A+ A C A A+ 44% 13% 44% D- A+ F A+ C A+ A- B+ A-
1.03 55% 70% 33% +5 0 1.13 27% 0.7 .19 20% .04 100% .04 0.89 47% 40% 29% -8 +1 0.90 36% 0.8 .27 25% .21 67% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Loyola Maryland A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 35% 24% F+ A+ A+ A A+ D F F F D B- B+ F F+ 22% 20% 59% A D D- A- C C+ A F B-
1.33 80% 65% 42% +21 -2 1.41 45% 1.4 .64 17% .18 50% .09 1.09 55% 30% 40% +3 -1 1.06 32% 0.8 .26 18% .19 90% .17
Feb
4		 Lafayette D C+ B+ F D- 41% 39% 20% F+ F+ D D D- C D- B D+ A+ D- F A+ C+ 36% 6% 57% D- C A A+ A+ B+ A+ F A
1.02 62% 45% 10% -3 -2 0.92 26% 1.0 .26 14% .24 77% .18 0.79 65% 67% 22% -6 +2 0.94 18% 0.0 .00 20% .12 100% .12
Feb
7		 American A- C A+ A+ A 45% 25% 30% C- A- C- B+ C+ A A+ D+ A+ F+ F D- C F+ 21% 17% 62% A D F A- D+ B- B+ A+ A
1.27 60% 55% 46% +10 0 1.23 30% 1.1 .33 14% .52 69% .36 1.13 73% 44% 34% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 19% .21 64% .13
Feb
9		 Bucknell C- D+ B- F D- 38% 33% 29% D- F+ B+ A+ A+ D+ C B C+ A F A+ A+ A 35% 11% 55% D+ B+ B+ D+ B F+ A+ F A
1.10 56% 44% 29% -1 -2 0.96 39% 1.3 .52 19% .32 78% .25 0.87 68% 17% 17% -13 +1 0.78 20% 1.1 .23 16% .14 100% .14
Feb
14		 Colgate B- B B A A- 38% 23% 38% C- B+ D- D- F+ B- A+ D+ A+ C- A- A- F D 37% 20% 43% D D B F D C+ F A- F
1.17 65% 42% 40% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.9 .21 14% .47 69% .32 1.12 47% 33% 50% +5 0 1.13 24% 1.4 .32 17% .44 65% .29
Feb
18		 Lehigh C- D A B+ C+ 45% 20% 35% B- C+ C F F C+ F A+ D A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 35% 33% 33% B+ A+ D- A+ A- C A F B+
1.12 52% 50% 39% +2 +1 1.08 34% 0.6 .20 16% .24 85% .20 0.76 59% 25% 19% -11 -2 0.76 26% 0.4 .10 19% .19 80% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.6 13.6 40.3 44.5 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.6 13.6 40.3 44.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 44.5    44.5
16-2 100.0% 40.3    40.3
15-3 100.0% 13.6    13.6
14-4 100.0% 1.6    1.6
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 44.5% 48.6% 48.6% 13.9 0.2 5.6 12.9 2.9 0.0 22.8
16-2 40.3% 43.9% 43.9% 14.5 0.8 7.8 8.5 0.6 22.6
15-3 13.6% 40.7% 40.7% 14.9 0.1 1.3 3.5 0.7 8.1
14-4 1.6% 38.2% 38.2% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.5% 45.5% 0.0% 14.3 54.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 21.6% 100.0% 13.9 1.1 25.7 59.7 13.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.7%
Lose Out 0.3%