North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.7 132
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 106
Pace 65.4 264
Improvement +1.0 149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 116 C C C+ D+ D+
Defense C 180 D B B B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 314 C+ 60% 128 -2.3 267
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 175 C+ 39% 138 +1.6 89
Three Pointers 42% 154 C+ 35% 136 +1.3 139
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 287 C+ +1.3 123
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 156
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 136 C- 1.00 227 C 0.32 155
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 149
Freethrows D+ 0.27 280 C- 71% 215 D+ 0.20 282
Total Offense C+ +1.9 116

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 41% 295 C+ 10.3% 135
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 267 D+ 6.6% 279
Three Pointers B 90% 48 C- 1.1% 241
Total C- 53% 241 C 5.5% 180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 274 D- 65% 337 +0.8 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 195 C- 39% 237 +0.1 194
Three Pointers 44% 77 D 37% 293 +3.5 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 141 D- +4.4 333
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 319
Second Chance C 30.1% 164 A- 0.86 13 B 0.26 55
Turnovers B 19.0% 62
Freethrows B 0.26 43 D 75% 318 B- 0.19 73
Total Defense C -0.3 180

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 239 D+ 8.6% 268
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 195 C+ 5.5% 129
Three Pointers C- 86% 226 C- 0.8% 174
Total C- 59% 255 D+ 4.5% 267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 264 17.4 199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 209 0.14 76
Improvement +3.0 #55 -2.0 #289

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 159 136 116
Conference Record 13 - 3 14 - 2 15 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37% 37% 31%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 95%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round37% 37% 31%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UMKC (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 37 - 48 - 5
Quad 416 - 223 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 45% -1  26% 0 - 1 C +1 D -5 C- F+ A B+ +5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 179 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 50% -2  43% 0 - 2 D -10 D -5 F B+ B- D -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 159 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 68% +5  68% 1 - 2 A +19 C +2 F A+ A- A+ +14 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 128 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 59% +4  79% 2 - 2 B- +6 A +12 A A- A- D- -7 F C A-
 Wed, Nov 26 200 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 65% +10  79% 3 - 2 B +11 F -12 C F C A+ +24 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 140 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 41% +1  40% 3 - 3 C -1 D+ -2 C- F+ C B- +2 C B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 183 @Montana W 81 - 72 50% +3  75% 4 - 3 B +11 B+ +8 D- A+ C+ B- +3 D+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 6 311 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 89% +1  65% 5 - 3 D -11 F -16 F D- F B +5 C- B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 82% +6  78% 6 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -2 F A+ D+ B +5 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 194 @Drake W 99 - 94 53% +9  94% 7 - 3 B- +6 A+ +20 A+ B+ A+ F -14 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 116 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 45% -3  15% 7 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +9 A- A+ F D- -7 F C- C-
 Mon, Dec 22 246 @UTEP L 66 - 76 62% -3  23% 7 - 5 D- -12 D- -6 C+ F F D -5 F C B
 Wed, Dec 31 291 South Dakota W 84 - 61 87% +10  58% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 A- +11 B- A A- B +4 C- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 338 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 93% -0  47% 9 - 5 2 - 0 D- -13 F+ -8 F B F D+ -4 D+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 8 360 @UMKC W 97 - 73 91% +18  99% 10 - 5 3 - 0 B +11 A+ +21 A+ F+ A- F+ -9 F B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 240 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 61% -6  8% 11 - 5 4 - 0 C +1 A- +10 A- C- B- F+ -9 D- F B
 Wed, Jan 14 206 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 76% +8  96% 12 - 5 5 - 0 B- +5 B- +4 A+ F B- B- +2 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 121 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 57% +3  74% 13 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +3 F+ -9 D F D+ A+ +12 B A A+
 Thu, Jan 22 236 @Denver W 82 - 77 61% +5  80% 14 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 B+ C- C+ C- -2 D B D
 Sat, Jan 24 338 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 84% +19  95% 15 - 5 8 - 0 A +19 A+ +17 A C+ A+ B+ +5 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @South Dakota W 89 - 84 OT 72% +7  90% 16 - 5 9 - 0 C +1 B +6 A- D+ F D -5 F C+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 236 Denver L 71 - 78 80% -5  7% 16 - 6 9 - 1 D- -14 F -14 F D D+ C+ +0 C- B C
 Sat, Feb 7 240 Nebraska Omaha W 92 - 84 80% +8  85% 17 - 6 10 - 1 C +1 A+ +15 A C+ A+ F -14 F D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 295 @North Dakota W 83 - 66 73% +4  61% 18 - 6 11 - 1 B+ +12 A- +10 B A+ D- B +4 D+ B+ B+
 Wed, Feb 18 206 @South Dakota St. W 74 - 66 56% +2  72% 19 - 6 12 - 1 B +8 B- +4 B- F A+ B +5 D A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 360 UMKC W 82 - 61 98%
 Thu, Feb 26 121 @St. Thomas L 75 - 79 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 295 North Dakota W 82 - 70 88%
Totals 21 - 7 14 - 2 +2 C+ +2 A+ C+ D+ C +0 C+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ 34% 38% 42% D+ C C+ C- C C+ D+ C- D+ C D- C- D D- 35% 20% 44% C+ D C A- B B B D B-
1.11 60% 39% 35% +1 -1 1.03 32% 1.0 .32 16% .27 71% .20 1.09 65% 39% 37% +4 0 1.11 30% 0.9 .26 19% .26 75% .21
Nov
3		 Oregon St. D C+ A+ F C- 44% 15% 41% C+ C- D+ F F+ A F F F B+ D+ F D+ F+ 29% 17% 54% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ F B F
0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12 1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35
Nov
5		 UC Davis D C- D F F 46% 17% 37% C+ F A+ D- B+ B- F+ A+ C- D F+ A F F 58% 9% 33% F F F B F A+ C B+ C+
0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23 1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24
Nov
11		 Cal St. Northridge C C- B+ F F 30% 18% 52% C F A+ A A+ A- A- C+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% B- A+ C+ F D+ A+ B D+ B-
1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28 0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18
Nov
17		 Southern Illinois A F A- A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% D- A C A+ A- A- C A+ B+ D- F F A+ F 45% 29% 25% C- F F A C A- A F B+
1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24 1.10 72% 69% 21% +10 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16
Nov
26		 Jacksonville St. F A F A+ B- 23% 34% 43% F C D F F C C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A+ A+ C A+ A A+ F A+ D
0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19 0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28
Nov
28		 Arkansas St. D+ F C A+ C- 34% 23% 43% C- C- D+ F F+ C A+ F A B- B- A+ D+ C+ 37% 10% 53% D+ C A+ D+ B+ F C F F+
1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30 1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30
Dec
3		 Montana B+ C A+ F D+ 28% 34% 38% F D- B+ A+ A+ C+ A- A+ A+ B- D+ F C- F+ 22% 35% 43% A+ D+ D A+ B- C A- A+ A+
1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33 1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14
Dec
6		 Northern Arizona F F+ B- D F+ 27% 37% 37% F F B+ F D- F B- F D+ B F A- F+ D 34% 38% 28% A+ C- C A+ B B- A+ F A
0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20 0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield D+ F F F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F A A+ A+ D+ A+ D+ A+ B D A B+ C 35% 38% 27% B- C+ D C+ D+ B C- F+ D
1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44 0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30
Dec
13		 Drake A+ C- D A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% D+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F+ C F F A F F 27% 20% 53% C+ F B A+ A+ A- F F F
1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21 1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44
Dec
21		 UC Irvine B+ C D A+ A 31% 27% 42% D+ A- A+ B+ A+ F A+ F C- D- F D+ C F 46% 24% 30% D F D+ C+ C- C- C+ B+ B-
1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17 1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18
Dec
22		 UTEP D- B- A+ F B- 36% 32% 32% D C+ F F F F B C- B- D D+ F F F 22% 40% 38% A F F+ A C B F F F
0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29 1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
31		 South Dakota A- A+ A+ F B+ 40% 19% 40% D- B- A- C+ A A- B- F C- B A+ F F D 25% 30% 45% A+ C- C A+ A- A+ B+ F C+
1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20 0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27
Jan
3		 Oral Roberts F+ F+ F F+ F 39% 24% 37% F+ F A+ F B F A+ F A+ D+ C- A C- D+ 31% 12% 57% C D+ F+ B+ C- C A F B
1.05 48% 31% 30% -8 0 0.85 52% 0.9 .45 21% .53 61% .32 1.03 56% 29% 33% -2 +1 0.98 33% 0.8 .28 19% .21 85% .18
Jan
8		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% D+ A+ A- F F+ A- B B B+ F+ F F F F 39% 22% 39% D F F A+ B+ A F+ B D
1.42 72% 50% 52% +20 0 1.42 44% 0.6 .26 13% .32 74% .24 1.06 67% 60% 39% +11 0 1.24 38% 0.4 .16 25% .33 65% .21
Jan
10		 Nebraska Omaha A- A+ A+ D A- 38% 16% 46% C+ A- F A+ C- B- F A+ D F+ F A+ F D- 40% 17% 43% D D- F D+ F B C+ F D-
1.26 79% 63% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.4 .28 13% .20 91% .19 1.23 74% 13% 40% +6 +1 1.15 38% 1.1 .42 19% .28 93% .26
Jan
14		 South Dakota St. B- C B+ A+ A+ 24% 22% 55% D A+ F+ F F B- F A+ D- B- F A+ D+ D- 33% 16% 51% C D- A- A+ A+ C+ B B B+
1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18 1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 St. Thomas F+ A+ F B C- 30% 30% 41% F D B+ F F D+ C F D+ A+ B- F C+ B 31% 6% 63% C+ B C+ A+ A A+ C- B+ C+
0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18 0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
22		 Denver B B+ D+ A+ A- 37% 18% 45% C- B+ C- C- C- C+ D- B- D+ C- C+ B- F D 33% 19% 47% F+ D A D- B D A+ B- A+
1.26 68% 33% 43% +9 0 1.22 32% 1.1 .35 12% .26 73% .19 1.18 53% 36% 44% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.3 .29 12% .07 75% .05
Jan
24		 Oral Roberts A+ B+ A A+ A 53% 8% 40% B+ A C- A C+ A+ F A+ F B+ D+ C D+ F+ 40% 17% 43% C D- B C- C+ A- A+ A- A+
1.38 64% 50% 43% +9 +3 1.26 31% 1.3 .41 10% .16 89% .14 0.93 58% 38% 35% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.0 .23 22% .19 67% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 South Dakota B C+ C+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C+ A- C- D D+ F F A- F+ D F+ F C F 35% 13% 52% C- F A F C+ D C F D-
1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15 1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32
Feb
5		 Denver F D F F F 42% 23% 35% D+ F F+ A- D D+ B D+ B- C+ D F A+ C 35% 22% 43% D- C- A+ F B C C- F+ D
1.00 55% 17% 28% -10 0 0.83 25% 1.3 .33 14% .36 68% .25 1.10 61% 64% 27% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.6 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Feb
7		 Nebraska Omaha A+ B B- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D- A B- C- C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F F B F F 31% 12% 57% D F B- F D+ C- A D+ B+
1.37 67% 43% 48% +12 -1 1.25 32% 1.0 .32 7% .35 91% .32 1.25 69% 33% 48% +15 +1 1.33 23% 1.3 .30 16% .21 75% .16
Feb
14		 North Dakota A- B F B B- 49% 2% 49% A- B A A+ A+ D- D B+ C- B B+ F D+ D+ 44% 8% 48% D- D+ B A- B+ B+ D C D
1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26 1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27
Feb
18		 South Dakota St. B- A+ B+ F B 33% 27% 41% D B- F D F A+ A+ D- A B F A+ C- D 35% 20% 45% C+ D A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30 1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 9.5 60.3 30.0 99.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 9.5 60.3 30.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 30.0    30.0
14-2 100.0% 60.3    60.3
13-3 100.0% 9.5    4.5 5.1
12-4 50.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 99.9% 99.9 94.7 5.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 30.0% 41.4% 41.4% 13.1 0.0 1.7 7.9 2.7 0.0 17.5
14-2 60.3% 35.4% 35.4% 13.7 0.3 8.1 11.4 1.6 0.0 38.9
13-3 9.5% 32.9% 32.9% 14.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 6.4
12-4 0.2% 17.6% 17.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.9% 36.9% 0.0% 13.5 63.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.4% 100.0% 13.1 0.0 13.7 64.0 22.1 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.5%