North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#194
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#164
Pace62.6#326
Improvement-0.6#232

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#196
First Shot-0.3#196
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#183
Layup/Dunks-4.6#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#57
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+0.7#119

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#197
First Shot-2.6#263
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#82
Layups/Dunks-2.4#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#148
Freethrows+1.3#114
Improvement-1.3#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 11.4% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 75.1% 86.4% 67.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 87.4% 79.4%
Conference Champion 8.5% 11.2% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four1.1% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round8.7% 11.1% 7.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 302   @ Cal Poly W 60-57 64%     1 - 0 -1.9 -5.9 +4.3
  Nov 15, 2021 168   @ UNLV L 62-64 34%     1 - 1 +1.1 -5.2 +6.2
  Nov 16, 2021 5   @ Arizona L 45-97 3%     1 - 2 -30.4 -17.8 -11.7
  Nov 22, 2021 191   Tarleton St. W 54-53 61%     2 - 2 -3.1 -5.9 +3.1
  Nov 27, 2021 345   Idaho W 90-73 92%     3 - 2 +0.3 +0.9 -1.8
  Nov 30, 2021 75   @ Creighton L 55-80 15%     3 - 3 -15.1 -4.5 -14.5
  Dec 07, 2021 192   @ Montana St. L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 10, 2021 285   Cal St. Northridge W 67-59 79%    
  Dec 13, 2021 175   Indiana St. W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 17, 2021 217   @ Pacific L 63-65 43%    
  Dec 22, 2021 332   North Dakota W 75-61 89%    
  Dec 30, 2021 68   South Dakota St. L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 01, 2022 245   South Dakota W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 06, 2022 318   @ Denver W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 08, 2022 336   @ Nebraska Omaha W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 13, 2022 323   St. Thomas W 77-65 85%    
  Jan 15, 2022 159   Western Illinois W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 20, 2022 223   @ UMKC L 62-64 45%    
  Jan 22, 2022 166   @ Oral Roberts L 70-74 35%    
  Jan 27, 2022 245   @ South Dakota W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 68   @ South Dakota St. L 70-81 15%    
  Feb 03, 2022 336   Nebraska Omaha W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 05, 2022 318   Denver W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 10, 2022 159   @ Western Illinois L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 323   @ St. Thomas W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 166   Oral Roberts W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 223   UMKC W 65-61 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 332   @ North Dakota W 72-64 75%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 8.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.3 6.5 5.4 2.1 0.3 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.4 7.9 4.6 1.0 0.1 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.1 7.1 3.1 0.4 19.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.4 5.3 1.8 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.0 0.6 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.8 13.6 14.9 14.5 12.2 8.4 5.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.1
16-2 87.3% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 57.2% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 24.6% 2.1    0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 4.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 56.6% 56.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 43.8% 43.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.3% 30.9% 30.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.1% 24.3% 24.3% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 3.9
14-4 8.4% 18.0% 18.0% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 6.9
13-5 12.2% 13.4% 13.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 10.6
12-6 14.5% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 13.1
11-7 14.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 13.9
10-8 13.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 13.0
9-9 10.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.5
8-10 7.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.7
7-11 4.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
6-12 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
5-13 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.6 2.7 90.8 0.0%