North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#187
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#173
Pace61.5#347
Improvement+2.3#44

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#75
First Shot+3.8#79
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks-6.7#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+13.1#1
Freethrows-1.9#282
Improvement+2.3#30

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#330
First Shot-7.2#357
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#53
Layups/Dunks-4.8#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#125
Freethrows+1.9#70
Improvement+0.0#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 16.9% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 74.5% 82.4% 62.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.1% 83.3% 75.3%
Conference Champion 17.0% 19.3% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.0% 3.4%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.3%
First Round14.6% 16.6% 11.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 55 - 8
Quad 412 - 617 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 170   Illinois St. L 68-77 59%     0 - 1 -12.7 -2.3 -11.2
  Nov 11, 2024 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 81-86 50%     0 - 2 -6.4 +15.6 -22.5
  Nov 13, 2024 84   @ Santa Clara W 88-80 OT 16%     1 - 2 +17.4 +12.0 +4.7
  Nov 18, 2024 169   @ Southern Illinois L 44-69 36%     1 - 3 -22.7 -22.4 -2.1
  Nov 26, 2024 121   @ Samford L 98-103 OT 26%     1 - 4 +0.5 +17.2 -16.4
  Nov 27, 2024 349   West Georgia W 73-61 85%     2 - 4 -0.6 -0.8 +0.9
  Nov 28, 2024 184   Utah Valley W 83-63 49%     3 - 4 +18.9 +25.4 -3.1
  Dec 04, 2024 210   @ Weber St. W 77-73 42%     4 - 4 +4.7 +14.5 -9.3
  Dec 07, 2024 180   Northern Colorado W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 10, 2024 54   @ Butler L 66-80 9%    
  Dec 15, 2024 271   Western Michigan W 77-69 77%    
  Dec 23, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 02, 2025 133   St. Thomas W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 306   Nebraska Omaha W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 261   @ Oral Roberts W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 321   @ Denver W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 16, 2025 292   UMKC W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 224   @ South Dakota L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 289   North Dakota W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 30, 2025 120   South Dakota St. L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 133   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 06, 2025 292   @ UMKC W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 306   @ Nebraska Omaha W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 13, 2025 261   Oral Roberts W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 321   Denver W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 19, 2025 120   @ South Dakota St. L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 289   @ North Dakota W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 224   South Dakota W 82-77 68%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.7 5.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 7.9 5.8 1.8 0.2 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.9 8.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.6 2.5 0.2 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.7 1.3 0.1 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.9 8.7 12.3 14.6 15.8 14.1 11.1 7.2 3.6 1.2 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
14-2 95.3% 3.4    2.9 0.5
13-3 74.0% 5.3    3.5 1.7 0.1
12-4 42.1% 4.7    2.0 2.1 0.5 0.0
11-5 13.3% 1.9    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1
10-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 10.2 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 44.9% 44.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.2% 38.0% 38.0% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-2 3.6% 39.3% 39.3% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.2
13-3 7.2% 29.8% 29.8% 13.6 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.0
12-4 11.1% 25.8% 25.8% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.0 8.2
11-5 14.1% 18.9% 18.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.2 11.4
10-6 15.8% 13.3% 13.3% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.4 13.7
9-7 14.6% 10.0% 10.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 13.2
8-8 12.3% 8.0% 8.0% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 11.3
7-9 8.7% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.1 0.4 8.2
6-10 5.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.7
5-11 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.0
4-12 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-13 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-14 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.5 4.9 2.2 85.0 0.0%