Oakland
Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#122
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#32
Pace71.1#130
Improvement-0.4#215

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#176
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks+3.2#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#292
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement+2.0#22

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#86
First Shot+3.2#78
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#209
Layups/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows+2.8#30
Improvement-2.4#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.2% 35.8% 27.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.6
.500 or above 98.0% 98.9% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 98.6% 93.9%
Conference Champion 47.8% 54.7% 33.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round33.0% 35.6% 27.6%
Second Round4.5% 5.3% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 416 - 424 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 48   @ West Virginia L 53-60 18%     0 - 1 +5.6 -14.7 +20.3
  Nov 12, 2021 33   @ Oklahoma St. W 56-55 13%     1 - 1 +15.9 -4.7 +20.6
  Nov 17, 2021 116   Toledo W 80-59 60%     2 - 1 +21.3 +1.4 +19.2
  Nov 19, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 59-86 8%     2 - 2 -8.5 -6.7 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 104   Vermont W 63-61 44%     3 - 2 +6.3 -3.2 +9.6
  Nov 23, 2021 170   Rice W 76-73 61%     4 - 2 +2.9 +0.0 +2.9
  Nov 24, 2021 162   Delaware W 81-73 59%     5 - 2 +8.4 +4.0 +4.4
  Dec 02, 2021 254   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 04, 2021 336   @ IUPUI W 69-57 87%    
  Dec 07, 2021 226   @ Bowling Green W 75-72 60%    
  Dec 21, 2021 22   Michigan St. L 63-74 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 290   Robert Morris W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 01, 2022 278   Youngstown St. W 77-65 87%    
  Jan 05, 2022 228   @ Detroit Mercy W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 07, 2022 300   Green Bay W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 09, 2022 267   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 13, 2022 167   @ Cleveland St. L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 15, 2022 275   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 20, 2022 267   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 300   @ Green Bay W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 336   IUPUI W 72-54 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 254   Illinois-Chicago W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 03, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 206   @ Wright St. W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 09, 2022 278   @ Youngstown St. W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 11, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 13, 2022 228   Detroit Mercy W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 18, 2022 206   Wright St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 20, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 275   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 26, 2022 167   Cleveland St. W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 16 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 8.0 10.8 11.0 7.4 4.1 1.1 47.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.7 6.6 5.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 4.0 4.1 2.3 0.6 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.8 8.9 11.0 13.1 14.0 13.6 11.6 7.5 4.1 1.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
21-1 100.0% 4.1    4.1 0.0
20-2 98.3% 7.4    7.1 0.3
19-3 94.8% 11.0    9.6 1.4 0.0
18-4 79.1% 10.8    8.4 2.3 0.1
17-5 57.3% 8.0    5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0
16-6 30.9% 4.1    1.6 1.8 0.6 0.1
15-7 10.9% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-8 1.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 47.8% 47.8 37.1 9.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 1.1% 78.1% 67.5% 10.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 32.4%
21-1 4.1% 64.3% 58.9% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.5 13.1%
20-2 7.5% 55.2% 54.1% 1.1% 12.3 0.1 0.5 2.1 1.3 0.2 3.4 2.3%
19-3 11.6% 47.2% 46.7% 0.4% 12.7 0.1 2.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.1 0.8%
18-4 13.6% 39.6% 39.6% 13.1 0.0 1.1 2.8 1.3 0.1 8.2
17-5 14.0% 33.7% 33.7% 13.5 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 9.3
16-6 13.1% 27.1% 27.1% 13.8 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.6 9.6
15-7 11.0% 24.2% 24.2% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.0 8.3
14-8 8.9% 21.7% 21.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.1 7.0
13-9 5.8% 15.7% 15.7% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 4.9
12-10 3.9% 12.2% 12.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.4
11-11 2.5% 9.8% 9.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
10-12 1.7% 5.5% 5.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.6
9-13 0.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
8-14 0.3% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.1 0.3
7-15 0.2% 0.2
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 33.2% 32.7% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.6 7.1 11.2 8.2 3.8 0.5 66.8 0.7%