Oakland
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#144
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#175
Pace60.9#351
Improvement+5.3#5

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#179
First Shot-0.3#184
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#179
Layup/Dunks+2.9#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#234
Freethrows-1.3#257
Improvement+3.9#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#135
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#281
Layups/Dunks+6.7#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#360
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#256
Freethrows+3.6#14
Improvement+1.4#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.7% 24.7% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 71.5% 81.1% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.1% 89.1%
Conference Champion 36.2% 45.8% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.3%
First Round21.3% 24.5% 17.2%
Second Round1.8% 2.1% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 35 - 9
Quad 412 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 53   @ Boise St. L 43-87 14%     0 - 1 -31.3 -21.6 -12.8
  Nov 13, 2024 14   @ Illinois L 54-66 6%     0 - 2 +6.3 -9.0 +15.1
  Nov 16, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 57-78 4%     0 - 3 +0.3 +1.1 -3.1
  Nov 21, 2024 299   Eastern Michigan L 64-68 85%     0 - 4 -14.3 -6.0 -8.7
  Nov 30, 2024 203   @ Toledo W 85-52 50%     1 - 4 +34.1 +18.6 +18.9
  Dec 05, 2024 136   Wright St. W 66-64 60%     2 - 4 1 - 0 +0.4 -0.7 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 229   @ Youngstown St. W 66-64 57%    
  Dec 17, 2024 27   Michigan St. L 60-72 12%    
  Dec 19, 2024 259   @ Cleveland St. W 66-63 63%    
  Dec 22, 2024 86   Loyola Chicago L 64-69 31%    
  Dec 30, 2024 33   @ Arkansas L 61-76 9%    
  Jan 02, 2025 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 275   Robert Morris W 70-60 83%    
  Jan 09, 2025 136   @ Wright St. L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 15, 2025 356   IU Indianapolis W 76-59 94%    
  Jan 18, 2025 298   @ Detroit Mercy W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 275   @ Robert Morris W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 310   Green Bay W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 229   Youngstown St. W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 12, 2025 356   @ IU Indianapolis W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 16, 2025 298   Detroit Mercy W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 21, 2025 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 23, 2025 259   Cleveland St. W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 27, 2025 172   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 310   @ Green Bay W 74-68 69%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.9 9.3 8.2 5.2 2.2 0.6 36.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.8 7.4 6.1 2.7 0.6 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.7 3.8 0.8 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.1 5.3 7.6 10.5 12.6 14.8 13.9 12.1 8.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
18-2 99.5% 5.2    5.0 0.2
17-3 93.0% 8.2    7.0 1.1 0.0
16-4 76.8% 9.3    6.4 2.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 50.0% 6.9    3.4 2.7 0.8 0.0
14-6 21.9% 3.2    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2
13-7 4.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.2% 36.2 25.5 8.2 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 52.4% 52.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-1 2.2% 49.9% 49.9% 12.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1
18-2 5.2% 44.6% 44.6% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.9
17-3 8.8% 36.9% 36.9% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.2 5.5
16-4 12.1% 31.2% 31.2% 13.6 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.4
15-5 13.9% 24.9% 24.9% 14.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 10.4
14-6 14.8% 20.3% 20.3% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.2 11.8
13-7 12.6% 16.1% 16.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 10.6
12-8 10.5% 12.5% 12.5% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 9.2
11-9 7.6% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 7.0
10-10 5.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0
9-11 3.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-12 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 5.5 6.3 5.3 2.0 78.3 0.0%