Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.8 64
Expected Predictive Rating +5.3 94
Pace 77.6 17
Improvement +1.8 116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 28 B+ B+ B B+ B-
Defense C 175 C+ B- D B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 129 B+ 67% 29 +4.4 38
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 301 B 42% 56 -1.7 265
Three Pointers 45% 95 B- 36% 83 +3.8 59
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.9 67 B+ +5.5 32
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 28
Second Chance B 35.1% 56 B 1.15 41 B+ 0.40 33
Turnovers B 14.7% 56
Freethrows B 0.35 57 B+ 77% 23 B+ 0.27 29
Total Offense A- +8.9 28

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 169 B 8.3% 45
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 249 D+ 6.6% 277
Three Pointers C- 81% 252 C+ 0.7% 136
Total C 56% 170 B- 4.6% 72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 234 B 52% 48 -3.1 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 72 C+ 37% 148 +1.2 283
Three Pointers 39% 240 D+ 36% 263 +0.2 194
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 82 C+ -1.2 129
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 120
Second Chance B- 28.2% 93 C+ 1.00 132 B- 0.28 86
Turnovers D 14.7% 305
Freethrows B- 0.28 88 C 72% 156 B- 0.20 91
Total Defense C -0.1 175

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 129 B- 14.3% 62
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 180 D+ 3.3% 278
Three Pointers B+ 77% 32 D+ 0.4% 296
Total B- 52% 109 C+ 6.2% 128

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.2 24 17.5 213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 21 0.17 158
Improvement +1.7 #105 +0.1 #185

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 83 66 52
Conference Record 5 - 15 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 11 8 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.0 13.6
.500 or above 7% 14% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 26% 14% 37%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 51 - 9
Quad 22 - 74 - 17
Quad 36 - 210 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 326 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  84% 1 - 0 C- -4 D+ -3 D+ C C+ C- -2 D A C
 Sat, Nov 8 59 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 48% -0  37% 1 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 C+ B+ B D+ -4 C- D+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 172 Penn W 106 - 81 88% +10  93% 2 - 1 A +21 A+ +17 A+ A+ D- C+ +1 A C F+
 Fri, Nov 14 72 @Colorado L 88 - 97 41% -4  1% 2 - 2 C+ +2 B +6 C D+ A- C- -3 B- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 344 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 98% +13  95% 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ C- B+ C -1 B F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 115 Penn St. W 77 - 65 71% +3  68% 4 - 2 A- +15 C +0 F B+ A+ A+ +15 A+ B C+
 Thu, Nov 27 29 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 28% -14  0% 4 - 3 D+ -6 C +1 B B C- D+ -4 C+ C D
 Fri, Nov 28 4 Florida L 78 - 90 9% -9  1% 4 - 4 B +11 A- +11 A D+ A- C+ +1 A C- F
 Tue, Dec 2 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 97% +23  99% 5 - 4 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ A- C C -0 C- C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 113 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 79% +5  72% 6 - 4 A +19 A+ +17 A+ A- C B- +3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 268 Brown W 86 - 79 94% +6  94% 7 - 4 C- -2 C+ +3 B- C+ C- D -6 C C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 78 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 43% +0  42% 7 - 5 0 - 1 B- +8 A+ +18 A- B A+ F -10 C D+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 56 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 57% -3  10% 7 - 6 0 - 2 C+ +2 C +0 C D- A C+ +2 C B- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 20 @St. John's W 77 - 71 13% -5  8% 8 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +27 B+ +8 D- A+ A A+ +19 A+ B B
 Wed, Jan 7 9 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 23% +5  79% 8 - 7 1 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ A+ C- D+ -3 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 82 @Xavier L 84 - 97 45% -11  1% 8 - 8 1 - 4 C- -3 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ D+ -4 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 31 Villanova L 82 - 88 39% -7  6% 8 - 9 1 - 5 B- +6 A +13 A+ A B D- -7 F A C
 Fri, Jan 16 60 Creighton W 93 - 88 60% +1  53% 9 - 9 2 - 5 B +11 A- +11 C A+ B C -0 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 87 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 47% -3  15% 9 - 10 2 - 6 B +8 A+ +19 A+ A+ C F -10 D- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 74 Georgetown L 78 - 81 65% +9  86% 9 - 11 2 - 7 C+ +2 A- +10 B B A F+ -9 F A- D-
 Tue, Jan 27 9 @Connecticut L 81 - 87 10% -4  6% 9 - 12 2 - 8 A- +17 A+ +14 A A A B- +2 B B+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 31 @Villanova L 73 - 87 20% -10  5% 9 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +4 B +7 A- C C D+ -4 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 78 Butler W 97 - 87 2OT 66% -0  37% 10 - 13 3 - 9 A- +15 A- +11 A- B- A B- +2 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 93 DePaul W 90 - 72 71% +14  98% 11 - 13 4 - 9 A +21 A+ +17 A+ A+ D- B +4 B+ C- D-
 Wed, Feb 11 56 @Seton Hall L 80 - 87 34% +1  59% 11 - 14 4 - 10 B- +6 A+ +18 A+ B- D- F -12 D- C F
 Sat, Feb 14 20 St. John's L 69 - 79 28% -7  7% 11 - 15 4 - 11 C+ +5 D+ -4 F+ C B+ A +9 A+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 21 93 @DePaul L 79 - 80 49%
 Tue, Feb 24 82 Xavier W 91 - 86 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 60 @Creighton L 84 - 87 38%
 Wed, Mar 4 87 Marquette W 88 - 83 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 74 @Georgetown L 83 - 85 42%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +9 A- +9 A- B+ B- C +0 B- B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ B B- B+ 40% 27% 45% B- B+ B B B+ B B B+ B+ C B C+ D+ C+ 37% 24% 39% B- C+ B- C+ B- D B- C B-
1.21 67% 42% 36% +5 +1 1.15 35% 1.1 .40 15% .35 77% .27 1.09 52% 37% 36% -1 -1 0.99 28% 1.0 .28 15% .28 72% .25
Nov
3		 Holy Cross D+ A+ F+ F D+ 41% 17% 43% C+ D+ D- A+ C C+ A+ C+ A+ C- D- D+ C- D- 24% 27% 49% B- D C A+ A C D- A C-
1.14 82% 33% 22% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.5 .33 13% .40 74% .29 1.01 64% 44% 34% +3 -2 1.05 21% 0.4 .09 17% .32 67% .22
Nov
8		 Virginia Tech B+ C- B+ C B- 32% 26% 41% D+ C+ C- A+ B+ B A A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ F+ D+ 38% 26% 36% B C- B+ F D+ D B A- B+
1.13 55% 44% 32% -1 -1 0.99 29% 1.3 .38 16% .33 88% .29 1.20 65% 39% 40% +6 -1 1.13 28% 1.4 .40 12% .28 68% .19
Nov
11		 Penn A+ A F A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F A 23% 36% 41% A+ A A- F C F+ C- F D-
1.34 71% 22% 48% +11 +1 1.27 44% 1.4 .59 19% .36 91% .33 1.02 29% 23% 44% -6 -3 0.84 26% 1.2 .30 13% .35 79% .27
Nov
14		 Colorado B A- C+ F C- 43% 17% 40% B+ C D+ C+ D+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- B- D+ C+ B+ 60% 13% 27% F B- C- F F C F+ F F
1.11 65% 40% 25% -2 +1 1.00 23% 1.1 .25 13% .45 77% .35 1.22 58% 43% 33% 0 +3 1.07 34% 1.3 .43 14% .40 85% .34
Nov
18		 New Hampshire A+ A+ D A+ A+ 54% 5% 41% A+ A+ A F C- B+ B- F D+ C F B A+ B- 29% 25% 46% A+ B F F F B- A+ F B
1.41 73% 33% 43% +14 +3 1.36 41% 0.7 .29 12% .36 64% .23 0.95 67% 31% 21% -8 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .16 89% .14
Nov
22		 Penn St. C C- A+ F F 40% 7% 53% A- F B B B+ A+ A- B A A+ A+ D D A+ 40% 25% 36% B A+ D A+ B C+ B+ F+ B-
1.10 57% 50% 19% -12 +2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 10% .30 79% .24 0.92 24% 46% 37% -10 0 0.81 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 81% .22
Nov
27		 Wisconsin C D- A+ A- B 38% 21% 41% B B D A+ B C- D A C- D+ D+ F+ C C+ 36% 9% 55% C- C+ C- C+ C D C+ A+ B
1.02 46% 54% 38% +1 0 1.05 19% 1.6 .31 17% .22 80% .18 1.27 65% 50% 34% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .37 10% .33 67% .22
Nov
28		 Florida A- C- A- A+ A+ 38% 35% 27% C- A B- F D+ A- A+ A A+ C+ C A+ C+ A- 28% 21% 51% A+ A A+ F C- F D- F F
1.06 50% 44% 43% +3 -2 1.04 24% 0.4 .11 14% .41 77% .31 1.22 63% 25% 31% -4 -1 0.93 32% 1.5 .49 11% .41 81% .34
Dec
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson A+ B B- A+ A+ 40% 13% 46% B A+ A- C+ A- C F A F C A+ A+ F C 42% 12% 46% F C- F A+ C A+ B F C
1.43 67% 43% 58% +21 +1 1.46 38% 1.0 .38 15% .20 82% .16 0.97 29% 17% 48% -5 +1 0.94 46% 0.6 .29 27% .23 82% .19
Dec
6		 Rhode Island A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% C A+ B- A A- C C B- C+ B- A- A+ F F 32% 14% 54% C+ F B+ A+ A+ A A A+ A+
1.29 80% 50% 50% +22 +1 1.47 33% 1.3 .42 21% .35 74% .26 1.02 50% 29% 52% +11 0 1.24 28% 0.4 .11 24% .26 50% .13
Dec
9		 Brown C+ B+ F C C+ 42% 15% 44% B B- B- C- C+ C- C A+ B D B+ A D- C 47% 21% 33% C C A F C+ F D D- D-
1.13 65% 25% 33% +1 +1 1.05 34% 0.9 .32 18% .34 86% .29 1.04 48% 25% 37% -6 +1 0.91 21% 1.4 .28 13% .30 75% .23
Dec
13		 Butler A+ C+ A- A A- 39% 16% 46% B- A- A- D+ B A+ C+ A B- F D- A+ C C 48% 15% 37% C- C F B D+ F F C F
1.28 59% 45% 41% +6 +1 1.16 37% 0.9 .33 10% .23 78% .18 1.32 67% 22% 35% +2 +2 1.10 43% 1.0 .43 8% .48 71% .34
Dec
19		 Seton Hall C B+ D+ F C- 44% 7% 49% A C F D+ D- A A+ A A+ C+ B D+ C C+ 46% 22% 33% C- C B- C B- B+ F A F+
0.96 60% 33% 23% -8 +2 0.91 20% 0.8 .17 19% .53 80% .42 1.04 52% 40% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 19% .48 63% .30
Jan
3		 St. John's B+ D+ F F F 52% 19% 29% B+ D- A- A+ A+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 18% 42% B A+ F A+ B B F A F
1.03 48% 10% 27% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.5 .56 16% .44 75% .33 0.95 32% 40% 17% -21 0 0.62 46% 0.9 .41 16% .59 65% .38
Jan
7		 Connecticut A+ C D- A+ A+ 44% 18% 39% B A+ B A+ A+ C- A- B- A- D+ B+ B+ F F 29% 26% 45% A+ D- A+ B+ A+ D+ B+ F C+
1.19 52% 30% 55% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .39 21% .41 74% .30 1.25 56% 38% 57% +15 -1 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 15% .25 83% .21
Jan
10		 Xavier C+ A B F C- 33% 22% 44% C C- D- A+ C+ A+ C+ D+ C+ D+ B- D+ F C- 38% 20% 42% D- D+ A+ F B+ F B+ C- B
1.05 71% 43% 25% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.3 .25 11% .30 67% .20 1.21 58% 43% 41% +6 0 1.13 15% 1.3 .21 5% .20 73% .14
Jan
13		 Villanova A A+ A+ F A+ 41% 16% 43% A- A+ D+ A+ A B A- C+ A- D- F D+ F F 31% 24% 45% A- F D- A+ A C C F+ D+
1.18 90% 50% 24% +8 +1 1.20 26% 1.6 .41 19% .30 71% .21 1.27 81% 42% 43% +15 -1 1.29 41% 0.6 .26 14% .30 78% .24
Jan
16		 Creighton A- B A+ F C- 48% 14% 38% A C A+ A A+ B A+ B- A+ C B- A+ C+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C A+ D- D F+ C- F F F
1.22 63% 50% 19% -4 +2 0.96 45% 1.3 .57 13% .53 71% .38 1.15 60% 10% 33% -5 0 0.93 34% 1.1 .39 13% .44 83% .36
Jan
19		 Marquette A+ B C+ A+ A+ 46% 15% 38% B A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F F D- A+ D- 56% 15% 30% C+ D- C F F+ F F A- D-
1.28 63% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.21 45% 1.2 .55 21% .51 88% .45 1.29 74% 44% 22% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.3 .41 7% .40 63% .25
Jan
24		 Georgetown A- B+ F A- B- 44% 19% 38% A- B B+ C B A A A+ A+ F+ D- F C- F 33% 25% 42% B F B+ B+ A- D- A+ B- A+
1.21 62% 22% 39% +1 +1 1.06 35% 1.0 .35 12% .37 86% .32 1.25 67% 64% 35% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 11% .19 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Connecticut A+ C- A+ B A- 57% 13% 30% A+ A B- A+ A A A+ A- A+ B- C- A+ F+ B 39% 22% 39% B+ B C A B+ D F A- F
1.12 50% 50% 36% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 15% .51 77% .39 1.21 65% 27% 40% +4 0 1.10 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 64% .29
Jan
30		 Villanova B C+ A+ B- A 34% 26% 40% C A- B D C C B- D C D+ C F F F 30% 19% 52% B D- A+ C+ A+ F D A C
1.06 59% 54% 35% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .28 20% .26 64% .16 1.27 63% 60% 43% +12 0 1.26 15% 1.0 .15 7% .35 64% .22
Feb
4		 Butler A- A+ A- C+ A 33% 20% 47% C- A- A+ F+ B- A A+ D+ A+ B- A F C+ B- 47% 21% 32% B- B- A C+ A- D+ F B F
1.23 72% 45% 35% +7 0 1.15 40% 0.8 .30 13% .57 67% .38 1.10 48% 58% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 13% .49 68% .33
Feb
7		 DePaul A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 35% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F B+ B C+ F A+ A- 48% 17% 34% F+ B+ C- C+ C- D- A+ A- A+
1.26 62% 78% 44% +15 +1 1.33 46% 1.2 .54 22% .45 60% .27 1.01 57% 50% 20% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.1 .37 14% .18 64% .11
Feb
11		 Seton Hall A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 10% 67% C A+ B C B- D- C- A+ A F A+ F C F 40% 31% 29% A- D- A+ F C F D- D F+
1.17 60% 75% 46% +16 0 1.36 35% 0.9 .31 26% .34 94% .32 1.27 43% 75% 33% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.3 .35 7% .39 76% .30
Feb
14		 St. John's D+ C- F F D- 33% 33% 35% F+ F+ B+ F+ C B+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 28% 30% A+ A+ A+ F A- F D+ B- C-
0.91 50% 22% 26% -12 -2 0.75 35% 0.8 .26 18% .39 83% .32 1.04 48% 24% 22% -14 -1 0.73 25% 1.5 .36 7% .42 70% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 1.3 4th
5th 1.7 2.2 4.0 5th
6th 3.0 12.6 1.1 16.7 6th
7th 0.2 13.9 4.2 0.0 18.2 7th
8th 4.6 12.6 0.2 17.3 8th
9th 0.7 15.8 2.4 18.8 9th
10th 5.6 8.1 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 2.5 6.9 0.4 9.9 11th
Total 2.5 13.2 29.0 31.9 18.8 4.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 4.6% 4.4% 3.5% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.4 0.9%
8-12 18.8% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 11.4 0.2 0.1 18.5 0.0%
7-13 31.9% 1.1% 1.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 31.6
6-14 29.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.8
5-15 13.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 13.1
4-16 2.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 12.6 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.0 10.4 77.1 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 8.1% 11.0 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 0.5% 11.0 0.5
Lose Out 1.4%