Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#78
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#127
Pace76.8#31
Improvement+1.7#80

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#46
First Shot+5.8#45
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#104
Layup/Dunks+1.6#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#62
Freethrows+1.9#80
Improvement+1.8#64

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#150
First Shot-0.8#201
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#106
Layups/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#302
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 10.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.1% 8.8% 2.3%
Average Seed 10.2 9.8 10.4
.500 or above 32.3% 55.3% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 18.6% 38.1% 15.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 5.7% 16.0%
First Four1.6% 3.7% 1.2%
First Round3.1% 8.3% 2.4%
Second Round1.1% 3.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 23 - 65 - 16
Quad 35 - 110 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 323 Holy Cross W 89-79 96%     1 - 0 -2.8 +0.1 -3.9
  Sat, Nov 8 71 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 47%     1 - 1 +1.8 +9.5 -6.4
  Tue, Nov 11 239 Penn W 106-81 91%     2 - 1 +17.5 +16.4 -1.8
  Fri, Nov 14 73 @Colorado L 88-97 36%     2 - 2 +1.7 +7.7 -4.9
  Tue, Nov 18 335 New Hampshire W 98-66 96%     3 - 2 +18.5 +22.3 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 22 123 Penn St. W 77-65 68%     4 - 2 +14.3 +3.0 +11.3
  Thu, Nov 27 47 Wisconsin L 83-104 36%     4 - 3 -10.1 +3.2 -10.3
  Fri, Nov 28 11 Florida L 78-90 16%     4 - 4 +6.0 +10.9 -4.4
  Tue, Dec 2 358 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94-64 98%     5 - 4 +12.1 +17.4 -3.4
  Sat, Dec 6 115 Rhode Island W 90-71 74%     6 - 4 +19.3 +19.2 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 9 222 Brown W 86-79 90%     7 - 4 +0.2 +6.7 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 13 55 @Butler L 110-113 2OT 29%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +9.7 +22.7 -12.4
  Fri, Dec 19 51 Seton Hall L 67-72 50%     7 - 6 0 - 2 +2.2 +1.0 +1.1
  Sat, Jan 3 20 @St. John's L 78-90 13%    
  Wed, Jan 7 7 Connecticut L 71-82 14%    
  Sat, Jan 10 98 @Xavier L 82-83 45%    
  Tue, Jan 13 34 Villanova L 74-77 38%    
  Fri, Jan 16 37 Creighton L 79-82 39%    
  Mon, Jan 19 105 @Marquette L 82-83 50%    
  Sat, Jan 24 100 Georgetown W 85-80 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 7 @Connecticut L 68-85 6%    
  Fri, Jan 30 34 @Villanova L 71-80 20%    
  Wed, Feb 4 55 Butler W 84-83 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 113 DePaul W 82-75 73%    
  Wed, Feb 11 51 @Seton Hall L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 St. John's L 81-87 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 113 @DePaul W 79-78 52%    
  Tue, Feb 24 98 Xavier W 85-80 66%    
  Sat, Feb 28 37 @Creighton L 76-85 21%    
  Wed, Mar 4 105 Marquette W 85-79 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 100 @Georgetown L 82-83 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 3.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.6 3.5 0.7 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.7 7.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.7 7.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 17.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 4.3 6.5 3.2 0.4 0.0 15.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 7.1 11.2 14.4 16.3 14.7 12.2 8.7 5.4 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 22.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 7.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 91.4% 22.9% 68.6% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.9%
14-6 0.4% 77.8% 6.3% 71.4% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.3%
13-7 1.2% 57.3% 6.6% 50.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 54.3%
12-8 2.8% 39.5% 3.6% 36.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.7 37.3%
11-9 5.4% 16.2% 2.4% 13.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 4.5 14.1%
10-10 8.7% 4.9% 1.5% 3.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.3 3.4%
9-11 12.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1 0.4%
8-12 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 11.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.6
7-13 16.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2
6-14 14.4% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 14.4
5-15 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 11.2
4-16 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.1
3-17 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 0.8% 3.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.1 3.1%