Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#79
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#116
Pace61.8#342
Improvement+1.7#73

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#89
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#60
Layup/Dunks-3.2#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#33
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+4.1#4

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#79
First Shot+0.5#157
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#15
Layups/Dunks-0.7#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#23
Freethrows-2.4#316
Improvement-2.4#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 15.5% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.8% 13.1% 5.5%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 46.0% 58.8% 36.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.8% 36.8% 27.9%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 10.0% 15.2%
First Four3.0% 4.1% 2.2%
First Round9.1% 13.2% 6.0%
Second Round3.8% 5.6% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 9
Quad 25 - 57 - 15
Quad 33 - 211 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 240   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 90%     1 - 0 -3.3 -8.2 +5.4
  Nov 09, 2024 336   Stonehill W 76-49 96%     2 - 0 +13.8 -4.5 +17.6
  Nov 12, 2024 264   Hampton W 60-51 92%     3 - 0 +0.2 -7.2 +8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 310   Green Bay W 79-65 94%     4 - 0 +3.2 +2.2 +1.6
  Nov 19, 2024 348   Delaware St. W 78-48 97%     5 - 0 +14.7 +11.6 +8.0
  Nov 27, 2024 41   Oklahoma L 77-79 34%     5 - 1 +9.4 +9.4 +0.0
  Nov 28, 2024 134   Davidson L 58-69 71%     5 - 2 -9.6 -7.0 -4.1
  Nov 29, 2024 39   Indiana L 73-89 32%     5 - 3 -4.2 +9.6 -14.7
  Dec 03, 2024 49   BYU W 83-64 49%     6 - 3 +26.3 +22.7 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 91   @ Rhode Island L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 10, 2024 97   @ DePaul L 68-69 44%    
  Dec 14, 2024 88   St. Bonaventure W 65-64 54%    
  Dec 20, 2024 20   St. John's L 67-71 34%    
  Dec 31, 2024 12   Marquette L 66-71 30%    
  Jan 05, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 63-74 15%    
  Jan 08, 2025 54   Butler W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 62-55 74%    
  Jan 14, 2025 40   @ Creighton L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 17, 2025 56   @ Villanova L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 98   Georgetown W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 28, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 59-58 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 20   @ St. John's L 64-74 17%    
  Feb 05, 2025 40   Creighton L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 54   @ Butler L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 12, 2025 68   Xavier W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 56   Villanova W 66-65 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 98   @ Georgetown L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 12   @ Marquette L 63-74 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 11   Connecticut L 66-71 32%    
  Mar 05, 2025 97   DePaul W 71-66 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 68   @ Xavier L 68-72 34%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.8 4.5 1.1 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.6 5.0 1.5 0.1 14.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 5.4 5.1 1.4 0.1 14.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.2 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.4 8.1 11.0 12.7 13.8 12.6 11.0 8.0 5.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 96.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 71.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1
15-5 39.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 97.8% 18.5% 79.3% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3%
15-5 1.0% 93.0% 12.7% 80.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 91.9%
14-6 2.0% 79.5% 9.4% 70.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 77.4%
13-7 3.7% 59.6% 8.5% 51.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.5 55.9%
12-8 5.6% 40.5% 5.7% 34.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.1 3.3 36.9%
11-9 8.0% 20.2% 3.8% 16.5% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 6.4 17.1%
10-10 11.0% 9.8% 3.3% 6.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 9.9 6.7%
9-11 12.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.3 0.7%
8-12 13.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.7 0.2%
7-13 12.7% 0.5% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-15 8.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 8.1
4-16 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-17 2.8% 2.8
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.8% 2.2% 8.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.2 8.8%