Robert Morris
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#242
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#254
Pace67.0#213
Improvement+0.5#133

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#289
First Shot-1.5#233
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#324
Layup/Dunks+0.1#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#202
Freethrows-1.1#267
Improvement+0.5#96

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#192
First Shot-1.1#214
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks-0.1#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#228
Freethrows-1.2#268
Improvement+0.0#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.6% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 17.8% 27.9% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 85.4% 53.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 411 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 53-91 4%     0 - 1 -22.6 -15.3 -7.3
  Nov 19, 2022 68   @ Dayton L 51-60 9%     0 - 2 +1.9 -9.0 +9.8
  Nov 25, 2022 228   Mercer L 66-72 46%     0 - 3 -9.1 -11.3 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2022 341   Evansville L 53-54 76%     0 - 4 -12.5 -16.3 +3.7
  Nov 27, 2022 182   South Alabama L 70-84 36%     0 - 5 -14.5 +2.0 -17.3
  Dec 01, 2022 201   @ Wright St. W 80-59 30%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +22.1 +10.5 +12.3
  Dec 03, 2022 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 56-60 32%     1 - 6 1 - 1 -3.3 -7.1 +3.3
  Dec 07, 2022 299   @ Central Michigan W 71-66 53%     2 - 6 +0.1 -6.2 +6.0
  Dec 10, 2022 78   Marshall L 60-69 22%     2 - 7 -5.1 -15.5 +11.0
  Dec 18, 2022 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 68-59 50%     3 - 7 +4.9 +1.0 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2022 325   St. Francis (PA) W 77-66 77%     4 - 7 -1.0 +0.8 -1.2
  Dec 29, 2022 204   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-70 51%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +0.5 +2.7 -2.0
  Dec 31, 2022 180   Cleveland St. L 54-63 46%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -12.1 -17.5 +5.0
  Jan 05, 2023 131   @ Youngstown St. L 56-78 19%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -17.1 -13.4 -6.0
  Jan 09, 2023 359   IUPUI W 77-70 90%     6 - 9 3 - 3 -11.5 -6.1 -5.4
  Jan 12, 2023 249   @ Oakland L 65-69 41%     6 - 10 3 - 4 -6.0 -7.3 +1.1
  Jan 14, 2023 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-87 35%     6 - 11 3 - 5 -12.2 +4.8 -18.3
  Jan 19, 2023 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 69-77 33%     6 - 12 3 - 6 -7.5 -2.4 -5.2
  Jan 21, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 72-38 83%     7 - 12 4 - 6 +19.4 -2.0 +24.4
  Jan 27, 2023 222   Detroit Mercy W 85-77 56%     8 - 12 5 - 6 +2.4 +3.0 -0.8
  Jan 29, 2023 249   Oakland W 68-63 62%     9 - 12 6 - 6 -2.4 -6.3 +4.2
  Feb 02, 2023 210   Northern Kentucky W 62-61 53%    
  Feb 04, 2023 201   Wright St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 10, 2023 180   @ Cleveland St. L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 12, 2023 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 16, 2023 362   Green Bay W 74-58 94%    
  Feb 18, 2023 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 21, 2023 131   Youngstown St. L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 23, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 72-63 79%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 2.0 0.1 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.0 1.1 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 9.9 4.9 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 9.2 11.0 0.7 21.4 6th
7th 0.3 6.0 13.8 2.3 0.0 22.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.8 10.6 3.8 0.0 18.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.5 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.7 8.0 19.7 27.9 24.9 13.2 4.1 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 28.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.6% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 4.1% 6.4% 6.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.8
12-8 13.2% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 12.5
11-9 24.9% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0 23.9
10-10 27.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 27.1
9-11 19.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 19.3
8-12 8.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.9
7-13 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.0 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 5.7% 14.8 2.3 2.0 1.3
Lose Out 0.1%