South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.8 206
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 268
Pace 68.8 176
Improvement -3.6 312

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 211 C C- C+ D C+
Defense C- 217 C- C D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 131 C 58% 168 +1.0 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 212 C+ 40% 124 -0.2 188
Three Pointers 40% 195 C- 33% 214 -0.7 202
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 160 C -0.1 175
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 170
Second Chance C- 28.3% 240 C+ 1.05 141 C- 0.30 210
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 133
Freethrows D 0.27 292 D+ 70% 257 D 0.19 303
Total Offense C- -1.4 211

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 90 B- 9.4% 89
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 295 D+ 7.0% 302
Three Pointers D- 77% 325 B 0.4% 67
Total C 54% 203 C+ 5.3% 142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 C- 59% 207 -2.3 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 253 D 42% 305 -0.5 155
Three Pointers 48% 23 C 34% 164 +3.3 324
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 165 C- +0.8 213
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 203
Second Chance B- 28.5% 102 D+ 1.10 281 C 0.31 186
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 263
Freethrows C 0.30 184 D+ 74% 283 C 0.22 205
Total Defense C- -1.4 217

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 288 D+ 8.3% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 124 D+ 3.5% 262
Three Pointers B- 81% 98 D- -0.1% 362
Total C- 58% 241 D- 3.4% 334

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 191 17.3 186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 247 0.15 102
Improvement -1.9 #281 -1.7 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 240 211 179
Conference Record 6 - 10 7 - 9 8 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 9% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 37% 48% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 6% 7%
First Round7% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 411 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 162 Merrimack W 75 - 66 40% +2  58% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 C+ C- C- A- +8 A A- C
 Sun, Nov 9 90 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 13% -4  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B+ F B +4 D+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 12 91 @Oregon L 69 - 83 14% -5  11% 1 - 2 D+ -5 C- -2 C C B- C- -3 C- C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 283 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 76% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +24 A+ D B A+ +11 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 22% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -17 F -20 F D F B- +2 B F+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 116 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 29% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -20 F F+ D A+ +11 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 311 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 62% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +7 D -4 F C C+ A+ +12 A- C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 186 Idaho L 81 - 84 58% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ F+ A+ F -12 F C D-
 Tue, Dec 9 313 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 63% +0  35% 4 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 B- C C+ C -1 B- F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 104 Wyoming L 72 - 87 24% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -11 C +0 C C- A+ F -12 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 269 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 63% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B+ +9 B B B+ F -16 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 3 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C -1 C+ +3 B- A C+ C -1 C F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 240 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 67% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 C- A+ C B +5 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 295 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 57% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D+ -8 B+ +8 C+ B B- F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 236 Denver W 87 - 79 66% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 D+ A- C C- -2 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 132 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 24% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 C+ F B D+ -3 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 360 UMKC W 90 - 62 93% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B +9 A+ +15 A+ C B+ D+ -4 C F D
 Thu, Jan 22 121 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 21% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +1 D -5 C D- C- B+ +6 B- D A
 Wed, Jan 28 240 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 44% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F D+ D- D+ -3 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 338 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 87% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +8 B+ +8 A A- B- C -1 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 121 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 40% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 F+ -15 D- -8 C+ F B+ F+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 291 South Dakota L 67 - 68 77% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D- -11 F -14 D- F B- B- +3 D+ A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 236 @Denver L 61 - 79 44% -12  1% 8 - 15 4 - 7 F -19 F -14 F D- A D- -7 F+ D D+
 Sat, Feb 14 338 @Oral Roberts W 87 - 69 72% +5  71% 9 - 15 5 - 7 B +9 A +13 C A+ C C- -3 B F A-
 Wed, Feb 18 132 North Dakota St. L 66 - 74 44% -2  18% 9 - 16 5 - 8 D -9 D- -7 C F A- D+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 295 North Dakota W 80 - 72 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 360 @UMKC W 78 - 67 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 @South Dakota W 79 - 77 56%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 9 -3 C- -1 A+ C C+ C- -1 C- D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C+ C- C 40% 35% 40% C+ C C- C+ C- C+ D D+ D C- C- D C C- 34% 18% 48% C C- B- D+ C D+ C D+ C
1.07 58% 40% 33% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.1 .30 16% .27 70% .19 1.11 59% 42% 34% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.1 .31 15% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C+ 44% 23% 33% C C+ C- C C- C- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C+ A+ A- C F D+ F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B- 39% 20% 41% C B- A+ D- B+ F B F C B D+ A+ D+ C- 57% 5% 39% F D+ B+ A+ A B+ F A+ D
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon C- D+ A+ D C+ 26% 31% 43% D C F A+ C B- D+ F D- C- F+ D C- D 16% 16% 67% A C- A+ F C+ D A- C- B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B A+ C F D B A- B+ A A+ F C+ A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ C+ A+ C F A+ F
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C+ F B- F D F C C+ C B- B A- D B 48% 14% 38% C+ B D+ F+ F+ B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B F F C- F+ D B- F C- A+ F A+ A+ B+ 37% 21% 42% D+ B B+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D D- D- D- F 37% 12% 51% C F C- B- C C+ A+ C- A+ A+ C+ D A+ A 33% 24% 43% B- A- B F+ C+ B F+ A+ D+
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B+ D B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D+ C+ D F F+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A- F B F+ C D- F C F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C- C- D A+ C+ 49% 18% 33% B B- C C C C+ F+ F+ F C F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% D+ B- F D+ F+ F F+ C D-
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A C- A+ C+ B+ B F F D- D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D+ F F C D+ F D-
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B+ C+ B- A- B 38% 13% 50% C B B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B+ F F A+ D- C- C+ F D
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F+ F A C 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ B- F D+ C F A+ C- C+ 45% 18% 37% F+ C B+ F F+ B+ F D F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -6 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha C+ B- F F D 55% 9% 36% A C- A A- A+ C B+ A A B A+ C- A- A+ 31% 17% 53% C A A+ C+ A F C C- C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B+ D+ F A+ C+ 46% 10% 44% B- C+ B- B- B B- B- A- B+ F F F+ D+ F 28% 13% 58% B F F C F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A F C- C- 44% 27% 29% D D+ A- B- A- C A+ B+ A+ C- A+ D D- C+ 23% 36% 41% A B- D B+ C D- B+ A+ A
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D+ A F C+ C 33% 16% 51% C+ C+ F+ F F B D+ F D- D+ C D- F F 24% 22% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C+ A+ C C- C B+ C F D D+ D A+ C- C 35% 24% 41% C- C D+ F F D C+ C- C+
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% C+ C D+ F+ D- C- D F F B+ D A+ C+ B 42% 4% 53% D B- D+ F D A F D- F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F D+ D- A+ C- A+ D+ D- F A+ C+ 34% 25% 42% B- C+ C+ F F+ F F+ F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -8 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts B+ D A+ A+ A+ 57% 12% 31% B A D+ A+ A- B- F F F C A+ F C B+ 26% 14% 60% B- B+ B- B- B- F F B- F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas D- A+ A+ F C 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F B+ C+ C- C F+ F+ F D- D- 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F F B- F A- F+ B- B+ D+ D D 30% 19% 51% B- D+ A+ C A D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13
Feb
12		 Denver F F A+ F F 48% 22% 29% C- F F A D- A F A+ F D- A+ F F F+ 31% 24% 45% D+ F+ F C+ D D+ B- B B
0.96 43% 62% 12% -12 0 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 8% .17 90% .15 1.25 40% 50% 50% +8 -1 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 13% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Oral Roberts A C- F A C- 49% 12% 39% C+ C B- A+ A+ C F+ A+ C C- B+ A+ B+ B+ 45% 11% 45% D- B F F F A- C+ F D-
1.32 54% 17% 42% 0 +2 1.06 37% 2.1 .77 15% .25 93% .23 1.04 48% 20% 29% -10 +2 0.85 37% 1.5 .57 23% .27 93% .25
Feb
18		 North Dakota St. D- A+ F C C 35% 20% 45% C C F F F A- C F D- D+ F F+ A+ D+ 33% 27% 41% C+ D+ A+ C A+ F F B- F
1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14 1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 11.6 11.6 4th
5th 4.3 20.4 24.7 5th
6th 0.5 19.9 5.3 25.7 6th
7th 2.0 15.7 20.3 38.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 2.0 16.2 44.5 37.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 37.3% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.5 3.5 33.3
7-9 44.5% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.0 3.6 40.9
6-10 16.2% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 1.2 15.0
5-11 2.0% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 1.9
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 15.9 91.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 100.0% 15.9 12.2 87.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.5%
Lose Out 1.4%