South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#59
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#68
Pace77.6#29
Improvement+0.0#184

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#14
First Shot+9.3#7
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#242
Layup/Dunks+4.7#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#56
Freethrows-1.6#272
Improvement+1.0#83

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#186
First Shot-0.5#192
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#176
Layups/Dunks-3.7#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#245
Freethrows+4.4#4
Improvement-1.0#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 2.2% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.6% 59.3% 47.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 3.6% 0.9%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.5%
Conference Champion 75.2% 76.0% 62.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round58.2% 58.9% 47.3%
Second Round15.9% 16.2% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.4% 5.5% 4.2%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.5% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 36 - 28 - 5
Quad 417 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 211   Bradley W 81-65 88%     1 - 0 +10.8 -3.9 +12.5
  Nov 12, 2021 18   @ Alabama L 88-104 18%     1 - 1 +1.5 +11.5 -7.9
  Nov 14, 2021 152   @ Stephen F. Austin W 83-71 64%     2 - 1 +16.1 +5.8 +9.5
  Nov 17, 2021 184   Montana St. W 91-74 86%     3 - 1 +12.9 +10.1 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2021 88   Nevada W 102-75 57%     4 - 1 +33.0 +16.3 +13.0
  Nov 23, 2021 131   Washington L 76-87 70%     4 - 2 -8.5 +1.6 -9.5
  Nov 24, 2021 117   George Mason W 80-76 67%     5 - 2 +7.4 +12.6 -5.0
  Nov 30, 2021 266   Prairie View W 91-74 94%    
  Dec 08, 2021 350   @ Idaho W 90-71 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 48   Washington St. L 79-81 45%    
  Dec 15, 2021 90   @ Missouri St. L 82-83 46%    
  Dec 20, 2021 191   UMKC W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 22, 2021 182   Oral Roberts W 92-80 86%    
  Dec 30, 2021 168   @ North Dakota St. W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 01, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 88-74 90%    
  Jan 08, 2022 231   South Dakota W 88-74 90%    
  Jan 13, 2022 331   @ Nebraska Omaha W 88-72 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 324   Denver W 89-68 97%    
  Jan 20, 2022 330   @ St. Thomas W 92-76 92%    
  Jan 22, 2022 190   @ Western Illinois W 87-81 70%    
  Jan 27, 2022 322   North Dakota W 91-71 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 168   North Dakota St. W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 231   @ South Dakota W 85-77 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 324   @ Denver W 86-71 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 331   Nebraska Omaha W 91-69 97%    
  Feb 17, 2022 190   Western Illinois W 90-78 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 330   St. Thomas W 95-73 97%    
  Feb 24, 2022 182   @ Oral Roberts W 89-83 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 191   @ UMKC W 78-72 70%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 6.3 14.9 21.6 19.9 10.6 75.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.5 6.1 3.5 0.7 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 4.5 8.2 13.1 18.4 22.2 19.9 10.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 10.6    10.6
17-1 100.0% 19.9    19.8 0.2
16-2 97.0% 21.6    19.2 2.3 0.0
15-3 81.0% 14.9    11.0 3.6 0.3
14-4 47.9% 6.3    3.1 2.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 20.8% 1.7    0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
12-6 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 75.2% 75.2 64.1 9.6 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 10.6% 82.1% 75.8% 6.3% 9.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 1.9 26.2%
17-1 19.9% 71.1% 68.1% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 3.5 5.5 3.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 9.4%
16-2 22.2% 65.0% 64.3% 0.7% 12.5 0.2 1.3 6.1 5.4 1.4 0.1 7.8 2.0%
15-3 18.4% 52.5% 52.4% 0.1% 12.9 0.2 2.9 4.5 2.0 0.1 8.7 0.2%
14-4 13.1% 48.2% 48.2% 13.4 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.8
13-5 8.2% 39.2% 39.2% 13.8 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 5.0
12-6 4.5% 32.5% 32.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.1
11-7 1.6% 23.3% 23.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
10-8 0.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
9-9 0.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.6% 57.2% 1.5% 12.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.9 6.8 17.3 17.6 8.4 1.9 0.1 41.4 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 6.0 10.0 18.3 15.9 24.7 11.2 2.4 8.4 4.4 3.2 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 56.7% 10.2 10.0 3.3 16.7 20.0 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 45.8% 10.3 4.2 4.2 8.3 25.0 4.2