South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#171
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#234
Pace71.3#135
Improvement-2.1#306

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#165
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#206
Layup/Dunks-0.5#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#124
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement+1.8#58

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#201
First Shot-1.9#232
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#108
Layups/Dunks+2.3#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#260
Freethrows-1.5#286
Improvement-3.9#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.1% 25.2% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 64.6% 88.7% 64.5%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 94.3% 90.2%
Conference Champion 23.7% 33.3% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four2.1% 0.6% 2.1%
First Round18.2% 24.5% 18.2%
Second Round0.5% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 267 Merrimack W 75-66 68%     1 - 0 +3.3 +0.5 +2.8
  Sun, Nov 9 94 @Northern Iowa L 58-65 19%     1 - 1 +1.6 -0.1 +1.0
  Wed, Nov 12 64 @Oregon L 69-83 12%     1 - 2 -2.3 +0.8 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 21 330 Georgia St. W 105-58 87%     2 - 2 +33.8 +25.2 +7.6
  Tue, Nov 25 87 Utah Valley L 52-75 24%     2 - 3 -16.4 -15.9 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 145 UC Irvine L 52-64 43%     2 - 4 -10.9 -17.6 +7.3
  Wed, Dec 3 270 @Northern Arizona W 75-62 58%     3 - 4 +10.2 +4.0 +6.5
  Sat, Dec 6 169 Idaho L 81-84 61%     3 - 5 -6.7 +5.4 -12.2
  Tue, Dec 9 306 @Ball St. W 68-64 67%     4 - 5 -1.2 +1.0 -1.8
  Mon, Dec 15 100 Wyoming L 72-87 30%     4 - 6 -10.3 +4.2 -15.1
  Fri, Dec 19 222 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87-88 61%     4 - 7 -4.7 +12.4 -17.1
  Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 64-91 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 224 Nebraska Omaha W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 333 @North Dakota W 79-72 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 305 Denver W 86-76 82%    
  Wed, Jan 14 148 @North Dakota St. L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 344 UMKC W 81-67 90%    
  Thu, Jan 22 128 @St. Thomas L 73-79 31%    
  Wed, Jan 28 224 @Nebraska Omaha W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 301 Oral Roberts W 82-72 81%    
  Wed, Feb 4 128 St. Thomas W 76-75 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 290 South Dakota W 87-78 80%    
  Thu, Feb 12 305 @Denver W 83-79 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 301 @Oral Roberts W 79-75 63%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 North Dakota St. W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 333 North Dakota W 82-69 88%    
  Thu, Feb 26 344 @UMKC W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 290 @South Dakota W 84-81 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 7.7 5.5 2.3 0.4 23.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 8.7 8.4 2.9 0.3 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.2 9.3 6.1 1.3 0.1 22.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.4 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.4 9.0 13.3 16.2 17.1 15.3 10.7 5.9 2.3 0.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.1
14-2 94.6% 5.5    4.6 0.9 0.0
13-3 72.0% 7.7    4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0
12-4 36.8% 5.6    2.1 2.6 0.9 0.1
11-5 11.0% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 14.3 7.5 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 40.2% 40.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.3% 41.5% 41.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.4
14-2 5.9% 35.7% 35.7% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.8
13-3 10.7% 30.5% 30.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.1 7.5
12-4 15.3% 25.3% 25.3% 14.7 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.4 11.5
11-5 17.1% 18.8% 18.8% 15.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.6 13.9
10-6 16.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3 0.1 1.7 0.8 13.7
9-7 13.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 11.7
8-8 9.0% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.2
7-9 5.4% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.4 5.0
6-10 2.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-11 1.2% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.1 1.1
4-12 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.0 7.8 4.6 80.9 0.0%