Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.3#355
Expected Predictive Rating-12.6#341
Pace66.5#250
Improvement-1.3#262

Offense
Total Offense-7.3#352
First Shot-5.5#320
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#283
Layup/Dunks-2.6#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#105
Freethrows-2.5#308
Improvement-0.2#205

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#345
First Shot-2.9#273
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#345
Layups/Dunks-1.5#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#283
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement-1.1#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.7% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 9.0% 3.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.0% 35.5% 45.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 46 - 136 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Iowa L 63-90 1%    
  Nov 06, 2024 224   @ South Dakota L 72-85 11%    
  Nov 08, 2024 30   @ Texas A&M L 55-87 1%     0 - 1 -16.0 -7.0 -10.3
  Nov 13, 2024 234   Southern W 70-68 27%     1 - 1 -4.9 -4.0 -0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 11   @ Connecticut L 46-81 1%     1 - 2 -16.5 -23.1 +7.5
  Nov 21, 2024 41   @ Oklahoma L 56-84 1%     1 - 3 -13.6 -9.7 -4.3
  Nov 25, 2024 336   @ Stonehill L 65-67 28%     1 - 4 -9.2 -1.2 -8.3
  Nov 30, 2024 150   Purdue Fort Wayne L 57-77 15%     1 - 5 -22.4 -15.6 -8.3
  Dec 05, 2024 351   @ Houston Christian L 79-83 36%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -13.6 -0.1 -13.5
  Dec 07, 2024 314   @ Incarnate Word L 69-77 23%    
  Dec 15, 2024 206   South Alabama L 63-71 22%    
  Dec 18, 2024 178   Abilene Christian L 65-74 19%    
  Dec 21, 2024 148   @ South Florida L 62-79 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   McNeese St. L 61-77 7%    
  Jan 06, 2025 223   Nicholls St. L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 11, 2025 297   @ Northwestern St. L 63-72 20%    
  Jan 13, 2025 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 68-84 8%    
  Jan 18, 2025 344   New Orleans W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 20, 2025 227   SE Louisiana L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 280   @ Lamar L 65-75 19%    
  Jan 27, 2025 197   @ Stephen F. Austin L 56-71 9%    
  Feb 01, 2025 297   Northwestern St. L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 03, 2025 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 223   @ Nicholls St. L 63-76 13%    
  Feb 10, 2025 95   @ McNeese St. L 58-80 3%    
  Feb 15, 2025 280   Lamar L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 17, 2025 197   Stephen F. Austin L 59-68 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 227   @ SE Louisiana L 61-74 13%    
  Feb 24, 2025 344   @ New Orleans L 71-75 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 314   Incarnate Word L 72-74 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 6 - 25 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.4 1.5 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.0 5.9 6.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.8 8.7 7.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 25.3 11th
12th 1.3 5.1 9.3 9.3 5.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 32.7 12th
Total 1.3 5.2 10.5 14.4 16.5 15.9 13.0 9.7 6.3 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
9-11 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.8
8-12 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-13 9.7% 9.7
6-14 13.0% 13.0
5-15 15.9% 15.9
4-16 16.5% 16.5
3-17 14.4% 14.4
2-18 10.5% 10.5
1-19 5.2% 5.2
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%