Towson
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#144
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#136
Pace63.9#305
Improvement+1.7#63

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#122
First Shot-0.7#204
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#66
Layup/Dunks+2.2#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement+1.0#95

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#170
First Shot+3.4#75
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#330
Layups/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#206
Freethrows-1.2#259
Improvement+0.8#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 20.8% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 89.0% 96.5% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 90.7% 83.8%
Conference Champion 20.9% 27.6% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round16.0% 20.6% 15.6%
Second Round1.5% 2.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 67 - 10
Quad 413 - 220 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 300   @ Albany W 77-56 73%     1 - 0 +16.2 +6.6 +10.2
  Nov 13, 2021 117   Monmouth L 71-79 54%     1 - 1 -7.5 -5.9 -1.1
  Nov 16, 2021 333   Hampton W 78-54 93%     2 - 1 +8.9 -2.9 +11.2
  Nov 19, 2021 179   @ Pittsburgh L 59-63 47%     2 - 2 -1.6 -4.0 +2.0
  Nov 23, 2021 206   Penn W 76-61 73%     3 - 2 +10.2 +3.8 +7.3
  Nov 25, 2021 42   San Francisco L 61-71 22%     3 - 3 -0.1 +1.9 -3.3
  Nov 26, 2021 200   New Mexico W 73-58 62%     4 - 3 +13.6 +4.1 +10.8
  Dec 02, 2021 268   LIU Brooklyn W 72-63 84%     5 - 3 +0.2 -1.9 +2.4
  Dec 06, 2021 165   @ Kent St. W 73-58 44%     6 - 3 +18.3 +10.4 +9.9
  Dec 08, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 62-77 8%    
  Dec 11, 2021 306   @ Coppin St. W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 14, 2021 174   UNC Greensboro W 65-60 68%    
  Dec 22, 2021 108   @ Navy L 62-68 31%    
  Dec 31, 2021 167   James Madison W 73-69 66%    
  Jan 03, 2022 161   @ Drexel L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 05, 2022 155   @ Delaware L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 09, 2022 142   Northeastern W 64-61 60%    
  Jan 11, 2022 125   Hofstra W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 289   @ Elon W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 17, 2022 331   @ William & Mary W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 20, 2022 185   College of Charleston W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 287   UNC Wilmington W 74-62 86%    
  Jan 27, 2022 155   Delaware W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 161   Drexel W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 03, 2022 125   @ Hofstra L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 05, 2022 142   @ Northeastern L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 10, 2022 331   William & Mary W 76-60 92%    
  Feb 12, 2022 289   Elon W 78-66 85%    
  Feb 17, 2022 287   @ UNC Wilmington W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 185   @ College of Charleston L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 167   @ James Madison L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.2 6.4 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.2 20.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.8 6.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.9 5.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 5.3 5.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.1 1.2 0.1 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.0 1.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.5 0.9 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.4 7.2 10.5 13.2 14.2 14.2 12.7 9.6 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 98.8% 2.8    2.6 0.2
15-3 89.4% 5.2    4.2 1.0 0.0
14-4 66.8% 6.4    3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 33.3% 4.2    1.3 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.5% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.9% 20.9 13.0 6.0 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 53.1% 51.9% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.6%
17-1 1.0% 46.9% 45.5% 1.4% 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.5%
16-2 2.8% 39.9% 39.7% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.2%
15-3 5.9% 33.7% 33.7% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.1%
14-4 9.6% 26.9% 26.9% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 7.0
13-5 12.7% 22.0% 22.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.0 9.9
12-6 14.2% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 11.8
11-7 14.2% 13.4% 13.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 12.3
10-8 13.2% 9.7% 9.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 11.9
9-9 10.5% 8.5% 8.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 9.6
8-10 7.2% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.8
7-11 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.5 4.9 1.4 83.9 0.0%