Towson
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#147
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#170
Pace59.0#360
Improvement-1.1#252

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#219
First Shot-6.8#343
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#9
Layup/Dunks-3.9#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#214
Freethrows-2.1#292
Improvement-1.3#280

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#96
First Shot-0.5#189
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#21
Layups/Dunks-2.2#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows-0.5#221
Improvement+0.2#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 13.6% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 76.5% 79.9% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 85.5% 77.9%
Conference Champion 18.0% 19.1% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round12.7% 13.6% 8.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 413 - 318 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 42   @ St. Mary's L 69-76 11%     0 - 1 +7.3 +8.5 -1.7
  Nov 12, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 54-80 16%     0 - 2 -14.6 -11.5 -3.4
  Nov 16, 2024 114   James Madison W 67-63 52%     1 - 2 +4.3 -1.0 +5.7
  Nov 20, 2024 223   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 55%     2 - 2 +5.6 +4.6 +1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 340   @ Morgan St. W 64-60 80%     3 - 2 -4.2 -10.6 +6.6
  Nov 28, 2024 110   Kent St. L 54-65 39%     3 - 3 -7.4 -5.2 -4.1
  Nov 29, 2024 146   Kennesaw St. L 63-67 OT 50%     3 - 4 -3.2 -7.1 +3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 60-67 20%     3 - 5 +2.6 -1.8 +4.0
  Dec 07, 2024 296   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 14, 2024 208   Duquesne W 63-60 61%    
  Dec 17, 2024 275   @ Robert Morris W 64-60 65%    
  Dec 22, 2024 176   Bryant W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 62-65 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 09, 2025 152   Northeastern W 64-61 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 167   @ Drexel L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 156   Hofstra W 62-59 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 327   Stony Brook W 71-58 88%    
  Jan 23, 2025 311   N.C. A&T W 76-64 86%    
  Jan 27, 2025 152   @ Northeastern L 61-64 40%    
  Jan 30, 2025 213   @ Delaware W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 167   Drexel W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 327   @ Stony Brook W 68-61 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 287   @ Monmouth W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 213   Delaware W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 287   Monmouth W 70-60 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 173   @ Elon L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 278   @ Campbell W 63-59 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 219   William & Mary W 74-67 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 264   Hampton W 67-57 80%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.3 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.2 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.1 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.7 5.8 3.5 0.7 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.2 0.8 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.6 1.9 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.2 0.2 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.4 7.1 9.6 12.8 14.1 14.1 12.9 10.1 6.1 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.6% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 81.0% 4.9    3.4 1.4 0.1
14-4 52.8% 5.3    2.5 2.1 0.6 0.1
13-5 20.9% 2.7    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 10.6 5.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 44.2% 44.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.1% 40.2% 40.2% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.2% 32.6% 32.6% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2
15-3 6.1% 28.0% 28.0% 13.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.4
14-4 10.1% 23.6% 23.6% 13.4 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 7.7
13-5 12.9% 19.8% 19.8% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 10.4
12-6 14.1% 13.6% 13.6% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 12.2
11-7 14.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 13.0
10-8 12.8% 6.3% 6.3% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.0
9-9 9.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.2
8-10 7.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.9
7-11 4.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.3
6-12 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.9 4.2 2.5 0.5 87.2 0.0%