Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.5 167
Expected Predictive Rating -1.2 176
Pace 61.2 349
Improvement -0.1 189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 241 D C- C D D-
Defense C+ 109 B- B D+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 293 D+ 55% 272 -3.5 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 60 B- 42% 66 +4.6 20
Three Pointers 35% 295 D- 30% 334 -5.1 330
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 337 D+ -2.5 268
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 301
Second Chance B+ 36.2% 38 F 0.83 361 C- 0.30 205
Turnovers C 17.1% 198
Freethrows D+ 0.28 271 D 68% 313 D 0.19 302
Total Offense C- -2.5 241

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 41% 300 B- 9.4% 91
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 338 B 2.6% 36
Three Pointers F 70% 361 C- 1.2% 261
Total F 40% 362 B 4.5% 56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 239 C+ 56% 141 -1.6 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 169 D+ 41% 278 +0.6 240
Three Pointers 43% 126 B 31% 61 -1.1 135
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.1 140 B- -1.9 104
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 111
Second Chance B 26.9% 63 C+ 0.98 104 B 0.26 61
Turnovers D+ 15.6% 255
Freethrows B- 0.27 78 B- 70% 71 B 0.19 57
Total Defense C+ +2.0 109

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 67 C- 9.9% 212
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 14% 11 C- 4.5% 194
Three Pointers B- 80% 68 D+ 0.5% 271
Total B 49% 49 C- 4.8% 244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 287 18.1 299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 206 0.15 110
Improvement +0.2 #175 -0.3 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 200 169 140
Conference Record 7 - 11 8 - 10 10 - 8
Conference Finish 11 8 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.9
.500 or above 53% 74% 32%
.500 or above in Conference 45% 68% 22%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 49.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 317 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 81% +4  55% 1 - 0 C +1 F+ -9 F+ F+ C- A+ +11 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 6 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1% 1 - 1 B +8 F -12 C- C- F A+ +19 A A A+
 Fri, Nov 14 306 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 85% -1  39% 2 - 1 C -2 F -20 F F A- A+ +20 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 210 @James Madison L 75 - 81 47% -3  23% 2 - 2 D+ -6 B+ +9 C- B- B- F -16 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 113 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 36% +2  60% 3 - 2 B +10 C- -1 D+ D- B- A+ +13 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 100 Liberty W 72 - 69 30% -1  36% 4 - 2 B +8 B- +4 C- A+ B B +5 A- C F+
 Wed, Nov 26 137 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 43% -13  0% 4 - 3 D- -13 B+ +7 D+ B- B F -21 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 148 Cornell W 93 - 80 58% +3  58% 5 - 3 B +10 A- +11 A- A+ D+ C -1 D+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 52 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 10% -17  0% 5 - 4 D- -11 D -5 D+ A- F F+ -9 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 15 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  0% 5 - 5 C- -2 F+ -9 F+ C+ D B +5 A F C
 Mon, Dec 22 290 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 82% +9  83% 6 - 5 A- +15 D -6 B- F D- A+ +22 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 134 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 31% -8  27% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 C- F B+ D -6 F A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 257 @Hampton L 62 - 63 58% -1  34% 6 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 F C+ B- C -1 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 189 Monmouth L 48 - 62 67% -7  12% 6 - 8 0 - 3 F -19 F -23 F F B- B- +3 C+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 108 Hofstra L 67 - 78 44% -7  10% 6 - 9 0 - 4 D -10 D -5 D- B- F D -5 B F F
 Sat, Jan 10 289 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 65% +6  68% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C+ +5 B+ +9 A A+ F D+ -4 D+ B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 151 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 59% +9  97% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 F -12 F B+ D A+ +19 A+ B A
 Mon, Jan 19 222 Drexel W 59 - 58 72% -7  6% 9 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -5 F -10 F B C B +5 D A- C+
 Thu, Jan 22 203 @Elon W 72 - 59 47% +5  72% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B+ +13 B +7 F A+ A+ A +9 B+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 65% -4  23% 10 - 10 4 - 5 D- -11 D -6 D+ F D D -5 F A- B
 Thu, Jan 29 111 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 46% -3  12% 10 - 11 4 - 6 D -8 B- +4 B+ F A+ F -14 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 257 Hampton W 82 - 50 78% +18  99% 11 - 11 5 - 6 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ F B+ A+ +15 A A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 108 @Hofstra L 49 - 71 24% -18  1% 11 - 12 5 - 7 F+ -15 F -17 D- F D- C -1 C+ C+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 216 Stony Brook W 69 - 57 71% +10  96% 12 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 C- -2 D- C+ B- A +9 A+ C- F
 Sun, Feb 15 189 @Monmouth L 71 - 72 44% +3  76% 12 - 13 6 - 8 C +0 C+ +3 B- A+ F D+ -3 D+ A F
 Sun, Feb 22 222 @Drexel L 62 - 63 50%
 Thu, Feb 26 203 Elon W 73 - 68 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 191 Campbell W 74 - 69 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 216 @Stony Brook L 65 - 66 49%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 +0 C- -3 C D+ D- C+ +2 D- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ B- D- D+ 35% 49% 35% D- D B+ F C- C D+ D D C+ C+ D+ B B- 37% 21% 43% C+ B- B C+ B D+ B- B- B
1.05 55% 42% 30% -2 -1 0.94 36% 0.8 .30 17% .28 68% .19 1.06 56% 41% 31% -2 0 0.98 27% 1.0 .26 16% .27 70% .19
Nov
3		 Loyola Maryland F+ D D D F+ 49% 30% 21% C- F+ C+ F F+ C- B- B B A+ C A+ A+ A+ 45% 11% 45% D A A+ A+ A+ C- F C- F
1.03 57% 36% 30% -3 0 0.96 34% 0.8 .29 15% .33 78% .25 0.86 57% 20% 19% -12 +2 0.81 18% 0.2 .03 17% .46 72% .33
Nov
8		 Houston F D A+ F C- 38% 24% 38% C+ C- C+ D- C- F D+ F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% F A A B+ A A+ A+ A- A+
0.74 50% 50% 19% -9 0 0.83 28% 0.8 .22 28% .30 50% .15 1.00 82% 25% 21% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 18% .13 71% .09
Nov
14		 Norfolk St. F D- F F F 22% 16% 61% F+ F C+ F F A- C- F D- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 33% 37% 29% A A+ D+ D+ D F A+ A+ A+
0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21 0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06
Nov
18		 James Madison B+ A D- D- C+ 37% 31% 33% F+ C- A+ F B- B- A- B- A- F F D F F 34% 11% 55% C- F A+ B- A+ F F F F
1.22 68% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31 1.32 73% 40% 50% +19 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31
Nov
24		 Rhode Island C- A+ C- B- B- 23% 52% 25% F D+ B- F D- B- B- D+ C+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 34% 17% 49% B- A+ B F F A C+ A+ B+
1.01 70% 35% 36% +2 -5 0.95 34% 0.6 .22 20% .39 68% .26 0.90 57% 71% 5% -16 0 0.71 29% 1.7 .50 24% .35 63% .22
Nov
25		 Liberty B- B+ A+ F C+ 35% 35% 30% F+ C- B+ A A+ B B- C- C+ B F+ B A+ A 44% 6% 50% C A- C C- C F+ A F B
1.14 63% 63% 14% +1 -2 1.00 39% 1.4 .55 16% .26 71% .19 1.09 71% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 9% .17 80% .14
Nov
26		 UC San Diego B+ C- D+ C- C 25% 33% 42% F D+ A F+ B- B B A+ A F D- C+ F F 31% 22% 47% A+ F A- F C- F C A+ A-
1.14 54% 35% 32% -3 -3 0.90 39% 0.9 .34 14% .31 82% .25 1.36 67% 36% 65% +24 -1 1.49 20% 1.4 .28 11% .26 47% .12
Dec
3		 Cornell A- C+ C+ A+ A 45% 23% 32% C- A- A+ B A+ D+ F+ F F C F C- C D+ 54% 13% 33% D+ D+ A A+ A+ C- D+ D D
1.35 63% 42% 53% +12 0 1.26 47% 1.3 .59 16% .26 53% .14 1.16 71% 43% 35% +8 +2 1.23 24% 0.7 .17 17% .32 78% .25
Dec
7		 Central Florida D F+ A+ F D+ 33% 24% 43% C- D+ A C A- F D F F F+ D- F A+ C- 45% 27% 29% C+ C- F+ F F C- F F F
0.95 47% 64% 25% -3 -1 0.93 35% 1.0 .35 23% .26 46% .12 1.34 68% 62% 21% +5 0 1.12 42% 1.5 .62 14% .38 90% .34
Dec
16		 Kansas F+ C+ D+ F F+ 30% 32% 38% D F+ A+ F C+ D C+ C+ C+ B A F+ B+ A+ 41% 18% 41% D A D+ F F C A- A+ A+
0.77 53% 31% 11% -17 -2 0.64 42% 0.6 .25 17% .23 67% .15 1.15 50% 44% 30% -5 0 0.94 34% 1.6 .54 14% .26 64% .16
Dec
22		 Sacred Heart D A+ A+ C B+ 31% 19% 50% D B- B F F D- D F F+ A+ A F A+ A+ 35% 10% 55% F+ A+ C B+ B- A+ A+ F A+
1.11 81% 50% 35% +10 0 1.21 37% 0.2 .09 17% .22 58% .13 0.72 44% 60% 18% -16 +1 0.73 26% 0.9 .24 25% .02 100% .02
Dec
29		 William & Mary D+ B+ C D C 33% 24% 43% D- C- C+ F F B+ C- F D- D D+ F F F 42% 15% 43% B- F A- A+ A+ F+ C- A B-
1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15 1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23
Dec
31		 Hampton D+ C+ B- F F 32% 34% 34% F F A F C+ B- A+ D+ A C F A+ A+ D+ 33% 30% 37% C+ C- C- C C B- F+ D+ F
1.03 64% 40% 13% -8 -2 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 15% .51 65% .33 1.04 79% 23% 25% -3 -2 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 20% .41 75% .31
Jan
3		 Monmouth F F F F F 35% 17% 48% C- F C+ F F B- F A+ F B- A F A- C- 28% 38% 35% A+ C+ B C B- A+ F F F
0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10 0.98 45% 53% 29% -1 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33
Jan
8		 Hofstra D F D- A C- 16% 45% 39% F D- B+ D B- F A+ B A+ D C A+ D+ B 27% 30% 43% B+ B B- F F F F C- F
1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35 1.16 58% 23% 37% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42
Jan
10		 Northeastern B+ B+ A+ A+ A 52% 30% 18% D+ A A+ A+ A+ F C C- C D+ D+ D- C D+ 39% 17% 44% C+ D+ A B- B+ F F+ F F
1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25 1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30
Jan
15		 College of Charleston F F C+ F F 29% 25% 46% C- F C- A+ B+ D A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 36% 14% 50% D- A+ D- A+ B A A+ A A+
0.90 40% 38% 17% -17 -1 0.65 30% 1.3 .38 16% .30 88% .26 0.77 39% 14% 28% -15 +1 0.74 34% 0.7 .25 22% .17 67% .11
Jan
19		 Drexel F F C- D- F 36% 34% 30% D- F A D B C A D- B+ B D F B- D 44% 25% 31% C+ D A+ F A- C+ A+ A+ A+
0.94 29% 38% 29% -13 -2 0.72 41% 0.9 .39 16% .40 71% .28 0.92 62% 50% 33% +4 0 1.10 8% 2.0 .15 21% .08 25% .02
Jan
22		 Elon B F+ F B+ F 31% 29% 41% D- F A+ C A+ A+ C A+ B A B A+ C+ B+ 37% 12% 51% B B+ C- A B A+ D C+ D+
1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24 1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24
Jan
24		 N.C. A&T D C+ A+ F C- 35% 29% 37% D- D+ C- F F D A+ C A+ D F F D+ F 40% 16% 44% F F A B A- B F B+ F
1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33 1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 UNC Wilmington B- D- A+ F A- 37% 35% 27% D+ B+ F F F A+ A+ D- A F A+ F F F 24% 24% 52% B- F B+ C B F D+ D- D-
1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27 1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30
Jan
31		 Hampton A- A A A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% D- A+ D+ F F B+ A- F C+ A+ A+ A D+ A+ 40% 25% 35% D A A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A+
1.25 75% 47% 47% +15 -1 1.30 26% 0.5 .13 14% .44 60% .26 0.76 32% 25% 35% -13 0 0.75 24% 0.5 .11 14% .32 50% .16
Feb
7		 Hofstra F F C+ A+ D- 39% 30% 32% C- D- C- F F D- A- F C C A+ B F C 25% 33% 42% A C+ C+ C- C+ D- C- C+ C
0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22 1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22
Feb
12		 Stony Brook C- F A+ D- D 33% 30% 37% D- D- B+ D C+ B- D+ C- D A C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% B A+ C D C- F B- A+ B+
1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18 0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14
Feb
15		 Monmouth C+ B- B+ A A- 30% 32% 39% F B- A- A+ A+ F A F D- D+ A+ B- F D 28% 24% 48% C+ D+ F A+ A F C A+ B
1.09 62% 43% 41% +7 -2 1.11 40% 1.3 .53 25% .37 44% .16 1.11 36% 33% 46% +1 -1 1.02 43% 0.5 .20 11% .31 61% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.5 0.5 3rd
4th 0.4 7.1 7.5 4th
5th 5.2 4.7 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 13.4 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 1.5 11.5 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 11.0 2.4 13.4 8th
9th 2.3 17.0 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 0.4 8.5 4.8 13.7 10th
11th 2.9 6.2 0.3 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.3 17.0 34.5 32.9 12.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 12.3% 9.3% 9.3% 13.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 11.2
9-9 32.9% 5.3% 5.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 31.1
8-10 34.5% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 33.0
7-11 17.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 16.5
6-12 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.4 94.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.3 7.0 60.9 31.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%
Lose Out 1.8%