Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #204
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 #227
Pace 60.9 #354
Improvement +6.7 #10

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #287 C D+ D D- C
Defense #120 C+ C C- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #200 1.06 #296 -2.4 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.69 #286 -0.7 #221
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.13 #35 +2.9 #83
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #187 -0.2 #186
Freethrows 0.26 #320 66% #352 0.17 #347
Second Chance 30.5% #185 0.90 #330 0.27 #266
Turnovers 19.5% #318
Total Offense -4.5 #287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #163 1.11 #114 +0.5 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #70 0.79 #238 -1.7 #314
Three Pointers 37% #299 0.96 #97 +3.3 #54
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #105 +2.1 #108
Freethrows 0.30 #188 74% #289 0.23 #205
Second Chance 31.2% #207 1.00 #150 0.31 #177
Turnovers 16.0% #238
Total Defense +1.8 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #196 -0.8% #103
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #182 -3.4% #114
Possession Length 19.4 #352 17.1 #162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #270 0.20 #257
Improvement -1.5 #271 +8.3 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 7.1% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 44.7% 63.8% 32.1%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 91.6% 66.3%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Round5.2% 7.1% 3.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 84 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 128 @Saint Joseph's L 65 - 76 23% -1  0 - 1 -6 -4 F B D+ -2 B B+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 219 @Colgate L 83 - 90 41% -7  0 - 2 -7 +10 A C C -17 F C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 68 Syracuse L 50 - 80 15% -10  0 - 3 -22 -15 D+ F+ F -10 C D F
 Tue, Nov 18 324 NJIT W 75 - 43 83% +13  1 - 3 +19 -2 C- D+ C +21 A+ A- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 181 Penn L 68 - 84 57% -9  1 - 4 -20 -5 D- C B -17 D+ F C-
 Sun, Nov 23 260 Old Dominion W 75 - 71 71% +1  2 - 4 -5 +3 C+ B- D+ -8 D+ C- D
 Tue, Nov 25 354 @Morgan St. W 71 - 66 78% +7  3 - 4 -6 -2 C- F F -3 D A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 252 @American L 73 - 75 48% +1  3 - 5 -4 +4 B+ F B -8 D A F
 Sat, Dec 6 225 La Salle L 64 - 69 54% -8  3 - 6 -9 -6 F A- C -3 D+ C- D-
 Tue, Dec 16 250 Howard L 66 - 74 70% -7  3 - 7 -16 -4 C+ F+ D+ -12 F+ D- B
 Fri, Dec 19 291 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 67 77% +7  4 - 7 -2 -2 A+ D+ F -1 F C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 345 Maine W 74 - 56 87% +9  5 - 7 +3 +15 A+ D F+ -8 C+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 29 152 @College of Charleston L 63 - 72 28% +1  5 - 8 0 - 1 -6 -1 C D F+ -6 D- F C+
 Wed, Dec 31 116 @UNC Wilmington L 53 - 65 20% -8  5 - 9 0 - 2 -6 -9 F A- F+ +1 A- C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 126 Hofstra L 67 - 70 43% -8  5 - 10 0 - 3 -4 +5 C D+ A+ -9 C- F D
 Thu, Jan 8 218 Stony Brook W 56 - 37 63% +7  6 - 10 1 - 3 +13 -7 F A- F +24 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 10 149 William & Mary W 64 - 58 48% +5  7 - 10 2 - 3 +4 -7 A+ D- F +11 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 15 213 @Monmouth W 73 - 51 39% +14  8 - 10 3 - 3 +22 +15 A+ A- D +11 A- C+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 157 @Towson L 58 - 59 29% +7  8 - 11 3 - 4 +2 -5 B+ F+ F+ +6 A+ F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 257 Northeastern W 83 - 78 71% +6  9 - 11 4 - 4 -3 +4 B F A+ -7 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 256 Hampton W 58 - 51 70% +3  10 - 11 5 - 4 -1 -10 F C D +9 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 279 N.C. A&T W 61 - 60 75% +6  11 - 11 6 - 4 -9 -11 D B F +3 B+ A+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 217 @Campbell L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 194 @Elon L 67 - 71 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 213 Monmouth W 65 - 62 61%
 Mon, Feb 16 218 @Stony Brook L 63 - 66 40%
 Thu, Feb 19 257 @Northeastern L 71 - 72 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 157 Towson W 62 - 61 52%
 Thu, Feb 26 217 Campbell W 73 - 70 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 126 @Hofstra L 62 - 70 23%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -3 -4 C D+ D +2 C+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 4.2 1.4 0.2 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 9.1 4.0 0.6 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.9 9.5 4.4 0.3 15.0 4th
5th 4.4 8.6 0.8 13.8 5th
6th 0.6 9.6 3.2 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 3.8 7.1 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.3 6.8 1.3 8.4 8th
9th 1.6 4.1 0.2 5.9 9th
10th 0.3 3.3 0.6 4.2 10th
11th 0.9 1.1 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.4 6.4 15.8 23.5 24.6 16.8 8.8 2.4 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 46.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-5 17.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 3.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 12.2% 12.2% 13.0 0.1 0.4
13-5 2.4% 10.6% 10.6% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1
12-6 8.8% 12.3% 12.3% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 7.7
11-7 16.8% 8.1% 8.1% 14.9 0.3 0.9 0.2 15.4
10-8 24.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 23.0
9-9 23.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.5 0.2 22.8
8-10 15.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.7
7-11 6.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 6.2
6-12 1.4% 1.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.0 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%