Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#7
Expected Predictive Rating+21.5#6
Pace71.5#111
Improvement-1.0#242

Offense
Total Offense+9.3#13
First Shot+10.8#4
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#265
Layup/Dunks+13.1#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#176
Freethrows-2.2#293
Improvement-0.4#215

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#5
First Shot+5.2#43
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#6
Layups/Dunks+7.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
Freethrows+0.6#142
Improvement-0.6#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.2% 8.5% 3.8%
#1 Seed 28.3% 32.0% 18.5%
Top 2 Seed 53.8% 59.2% 39.9%
Top 4 Seed 82.5% 86.2% 72.7%
Top 6 Seed 93.5% 95.5% 88.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.6% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.9% 99.4% 97.5%
Average Seed 2.8 2.6 3.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 96.4% 93.4%
Conference Champion 29.1% 31.4% 23.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round98.8% 99.3% 97.2%
Second Round90.4% 92.1% 85.8%
Sweet Sixteen61.7% 64.4% 54.8%
Elite Eight36.7% 39.2% 30.1%
Final Four20.1% 21.7% 15.7%
Championship Game10.7% 11.8% 7.9%
National Champion5.4% 5.9% 4.0%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 7
Quad 27 - 118 - 8
Quad 35 - 023 - 8
Quad 43 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 284   Howard W 87-57 99%     1 - 0 +20.5 +5.9 +14.2
  Nov 08, 2024 17   North Carolina W 92-89 74%     2 - 0 +14.8 +13.9 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 27   Michigan St. W 77-69 69%     3 - 0 +21.3 +2.5 +17.8
  Nov 16, 2024 144   Oakland W 78-57 96%     4 - 0 +19.0 +13.6 +7.7
  Nov 19, 2024 140   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 96%     5 - 0 +16.3 +9.7 +6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Duke W 75-72 41%     6 - 0 +23.6 +14.8 +8.9
  Nov 30, 2024 119   Furman W 86-51 95%     7 - 0 +34.7 +18.9 +17.8
  Dec 04, 2024 40   @ Creighton L 63-76 64%     7 - 1 +1.7 -2.3 +4.0
  Dec 08, 2024 63   @ Missouri W 80-74 72%    
  Dec 14, 2024 72   North Carolina St. W 80-67 90%    
  Dec 22, 2024 164   Brown W 83-61 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 45   West Virginia W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 05, 2025 83   @ Central Florida W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 08, 2025 51   Arizona St. W 81-69 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 22, 2025 78   @ TCU W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 6   Houston W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 28, 2025 83   Central Florida W 82-67 90%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 03, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 11, 2025 85   Colorado W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 60   @ Utah W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 49   @ BYU W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 84-69 90%    
  Feb 24, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 78-69 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 77-70 75%    
  Mar 03, 2025 6   @ Houston L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 23   Arizona W 83-76 74%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.3 7.0 8.4 6.3 2.7 0.6 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.1 7.5 5.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.8 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.4 9.5 12.1 14.6 15.3 13.5 10.3 6.5 2.7 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 99.9% 2.7    2.6 0.1
18-2 96.5% 6.3    5.6 0.7 0.0
17-3 81.4% 8.4    5.8 2.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 51.6% 7.0    3.4 2.8 0.7 0.1
15-5 21.9% 3.3    0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 19.1 7.5 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 100.0% 55.1% 44.9% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.7% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 1.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.5% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.2 5.2 1.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.3% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.4 6.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.5% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.6 6.4 5.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.3% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.0 4.5 6.7 3.3 0.7 0.1 100.0%
14-6 14.6% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.6 1.7 5.2 5.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.1% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.3 0.6 2.3 4.4 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 9.5% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 4.1 0.1 0.6 2.5 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 6.4% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 4.1% 99.7% 5.3% 94.4% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-11 2.4% 96.7% 2.7% 94.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 96.6%
8-12 1.2% 83.4% 2.2% 81.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 83.0%
7-13 0.5% 46.0% 2.8% 43.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 44.5%
6-14 0.2% 10.9% 10.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.9%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.1% 20.7% 78.4% 2.8 28.3 25.6 17.7 11.0 7.0 4.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.9 98.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.5 13.5