Preseason Rankings
Kansas
Big 12
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#114
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#26
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 10.6% 10.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 22.9% 23.0% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 46.9% 47.0% 14.7%
Top 6 Seed 64.8% 65.0% 30.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.2% 85.3% 51.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.6% 83.7% 49.0%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 6.2
.500 or above 90.1% 90.2% 55.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.6% 83.7% 55.8%
Conference Champion 12.9% 12.9% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 2.6%
First Four3.8% 3.9% 0.0%
First Round83.4% 83.5% 51.9%
Second Round69.2% 69.3% 34.0%
Sweet Sixteen40.4% 40.5% 12.2%
Elite Eight20.4% 20.4% 5.1%
Final Four10.0% 10.0% 2.6%
Championship Game4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
National Champion2.2% 2.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 26 - 214 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 43 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 314   Green Bay W 89-60 99.7%   
  Nov 07, 2025 25   @ North Carolina L 76-77 48%    
  Nov 11, 2025 221   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-58 99%    
  Nov 15, 2025 171   Princeton W 81-59 97%    
  Nov 18, 2025 3   Duke L 69-73 35%    
  Nov 24, 2025 63   Notre Dame W 73-65 77%    
  Nov 25, 2025 64   Syracuse W 78-70 77%    
  Dec 02, 2025 4   Connecticut L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 07, 2025 37   Missouri W 78-71 73%    
  Dec 13, 2025 31   @ North Carolina St. W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 16, 2025 131   Towson W 77-58 95%    
  Dec 22, 2025 144   Davidson W 80-60 95%    
  Jan 03, 2026 74   @ Central Florida W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 06, 2026 55   TCU W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 10, 2026 61   @ West Virginia W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 13, 2026 20   Iowa St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 16, 2026 23   Baylor W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 20, 2026 82   @ Colorado W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 24, 2026 57   @ Kansas St. W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 31, 2026 9   BYU W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 02, 2026 12   @ Texas Tech L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 07, 2026 88   Utah W 81-66 89%    
  Feb 09, 2026 10   Arizona W 78-75 58%    
  Feb 14, 2026 20   @ Iowa St. L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 18, 2026 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 21, 2026 45   Cincinnati W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 23, 2026 1   Houston L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 28, 2026 10   @ Arizona L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 03, 2026 68   @ Arizona St. W 76-70 69%    
  Mar 07, 2026 57   Kansas St. W 76-65 81%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.5 4.2 2.6 0.8 12.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.3 4.2 1.3 0.1 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 3.3 0.8 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 2.9 1.0 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.5 0.1 4.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.1 8.4 10.3 12.1 12.7 12.2 10.5 8.3 5.5 2.7 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 95.7% 2.6    2.2 0.4
16-2 76.2% 4.2    2.6 1.5 0.1
15-3 42.7% 3.5    1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 13.0% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 7.2 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 48.9% 51.1% 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.7% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.5% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.6 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.3% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.1 2.7 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.8 1.5 3.3 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.2% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 3.6 0.5 2.0 3.8 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.7% 99.8% 7.3% 92.5% 4.6 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.2 2.8 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 12.1% 98.1% 4.0% 94.1% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.0%
10-8 10.3% 92.6% 2.4% 90.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 92.4%
9-9 8.4% 80.1% 1.2% 78.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.7 79.8%
8-10 6.1% 49.3% 0.4% 48.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.1 3.1 49.1%
7-11 4.4% 25.3% 0.3% 25.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.3 25.1%
6-12 2.9% 6.2% 6.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 6.2%
5-13 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.2%
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 85.2% 9.8% 75.4% 4.6 10.6 12.3 12.7 11.4 9.8 8.1 6.1 4.4 3.7 3.6 2.4 0.2 14.8 83.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7