Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#17
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#17
Pace68.9#199
Improvement+2.6#43

Offense
Total Offense+6.6#48
First Shot+5.0#62
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#76
Layup/Dunks+5.3#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#6
First Shot+9.6#7
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#85
Layups/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#70
Freethrows+3.6#16
Improvement+3.3#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.9% 5.2% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 14.4% 18.5% 7.0%
Top 4 Seed 51.0% 58.9% 36.7%
Top 6 Seed 79.6% 85.7% 68.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 98.6% 93.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.7% 98.5% 93.6%
Average Seed 4.7 4.3 5.4
.500 or above 99.1% 99.7% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 92.0% 77.6%
Conference Champion 6.8% 9.2% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four2.3% 1.2% 4.2%
First Round96.0% 98.1% 92.2%
Second Round79.7% 84.2% 71.7%
Sweet Sixteen44.7% 48.9% 36.9%
Elite Eight19.2% 21.5% 15.0%
Final Four7.9% 8.9% 6.2%
Championship Game3.2% 3.7% 2.2%
National Champion1.3% 1.5% 0.8%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 10
Quad 26 - 115 - 11
Quad 34 - 019 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 283 Green Bay W 94-51 99%     1 - 0 +33.4 +22.0 +15.2
  Fri, Nov 7 21 @North Carolina L 74-87 44%     1 - 1 +6.0 +10.2 -4.0
  Tue, Nov 11 218 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-46 98%     2 - 1 +24.4 +2.6 +21.2
  Sat, Nov 15 248 Princeton W 76-57 98%     3 - 1 +11.0 +0.4 +10.4
  Tue, Nov 18 4 Duke L 66-78 33%     3 - 2 +9.9 +8.3 +0.9
  Mon, Nov 24 64 Notre Dame W 71-61 80%     4 - 2 +18.4 +7.3 +11.8
  Tue, Nov 25 75 Syracuse W 71-60 82%     5 - 2 +18.6 +7.1 +12.3
  Wed, Nov 26 14 Tennessee W 81-76 49%     6 - 2 +22.6 +18.5 +4.2
  Tue, Dec 2 7 Connecticut L 56-61 46%     6 - 3 +13.4 +0.1 +12.7
  Sun, Dec 7 60 Missouri W 80-60 86%     7 - 3 +25.8 +12.7 +14.4
  Sat, Dec 13 28 @North Carolina St. W 77-76 OT 49%     8 - 3 +18.8 +6.3 +12.4
  Tue, Dec 16 128 Towson W 73-49 95%     9 - 3 +23.2 +8.0 +17.6
  Mon, Dec 22 140 Davidson W 90-61 95%     10 - 3 +27.4 +12.2 +13.8
  Sat, Jan 3 49 @Central Florida W 78-74 64%    
  Tue, Jan 6 53 TCU W 74-63 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 62 @West Virginia W 70-64 71%    
  Tue, Jan 13 3 Iowa St. L 72-74 44%    
  Fri, Jan 16 27 Baylor W 80-74 70%    
  Tue, Jan 20 73 @Colorado W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 58 @Kansas St. W 80-75 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 11 BYU W 74-73 53%    
  Mon, Feb 2 24 @Texas Tech L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 111 Utah W 83-66 94%    
  Mon, Feb 9 2 Arizona L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 3 @Iowa St. L 69-77 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 55 @Oklahoma St. W 81-76 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 67 Cincinnati W 75-63 87%    
  Mon, Feb 23 8 Houston W 68-67 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 2 @Arizona L 69-78 21%    
  Tue, Mar 3 71 @Arizona St. W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Mar 7 58 Kansas St. W 83-72 85%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.8 2.7 0.2 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 7.0 4.0 0.4 14.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 7.5 4.7 0.7 0.0 16.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.9 4.5 0.7 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.5 0.9 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.0 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 1.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.8 6.6 10.7 13.9 16.5 15.9 13.3 8.7 5.0 2.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 88.5% 1.9    1.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 53.8% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1
14-4 15.5% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.2% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.0% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.1 1.1 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.7% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.6 1.0 3.2 3.4 1.1 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.3% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 3.2 0.5 2.5 5.5 3.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 15.9% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 3.8 0.1 1.0 4.8 6.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.5% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 4.6 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 5.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.9% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 5.5 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.7 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 10.7% 99.8% 2.0% 97.8% 6.4 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.4 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 6.6% 96.5% 1.1% 95.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.2 96.5%
7-11 3.8% 79.8% 0.4% 79.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.1 0.8 79.7%
6-12 1.6% 37.1% 0.4% 36.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.0 36.8%
5-13 0.7% 5.9% 0.5% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.5%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.9% 6.5% 90.4% 4.7 3.9 10.4 17.8 18.8 16.7 11.9 6.8 3.5 2.5 2.4 2.0 0.1 3.1 96.7%